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401. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ of European Defence Integration

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Defence cooperation in the EU is growing, reflecting the European citizens’ view of the EU as a security enhancer. This policy paper takes stock of current developments and analyses the positions of seven EU member-states on defence integration (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, and Greece). The ‘Magnificent Seven’ are key players in this process, not least because of their large defence budgets and their engagement in the existing forms of cooperation. We examine the defence budget of the seven countries and their breakdown, as well as their participation in Battlegroups, EU military operations and missions, and PESCO projects. The analysis provides significant insights on the national defence priorities. The seven countries form overlapping clusters, according to their political status and aspirations in the European integration process, their economic condition, their geographical location, and their relations with the US and NATO. All of them are facing significant dilemmas and engage in subtle balancing acts, which explains the slow and arduous path of European defence integration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

402. Public Administration in the era of Covid-19: Policy Responses and Reforms underway

Author:
Manto Lampropoulou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Covid-19 has caused an unprecedented shock to the state apparatus and has triggered major reforms in the administrative system of Greece. Policy responses to the pandemic have brought about several positive changes towards the modernization and de-bureaucratization of public administration. However, the pace and scale of change vary significantly. The pandemic has acted as a strong driver for the digital transformation of the public sector and the strengthening of e-government policies. Numerous administrative procedures were streamlined, digitalized and simplified, working conditions have become more flexible and several improvements have taken place in service delivery and state-citizen relations. The observed centralisation of decision-making and the often use of fast-track procedures have raised questions of democratic control, transparency and the rule of law, while the emergency measureshave been criticized for the threats they pose for the protection of citizens’ rights, individual liberties and personal data. A key challenge remains the integration the emergency measures of the covid-19 policy agenda into a longer-term programme of administrative reform in the post-covid era.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Rule of Law, Public Policy, Transparency, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

403. EU return sponsorships: High stakes, low gains

Author:
Florian Trauner and Olivia Sundberg Diez
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The concept of ‘return sponsorships’ is the most novel of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum’s proposals. It is also proving to be one of the most controversial in the negotiations. With this proposal, the Commission set out to resolve the discussion between member states on responsibility-sharing in migration matters, and simultaneously increase the number of migrants returned to their country of origin. Under the new scheme, member states would have to support other EU countries facing migratory pressure. If, however, they oppose the option of relocating asylum seekers, they can ‘contribute’ by facilitating the returns of migrants who lack permission to remain in Europe instead. But making this idea work in practice will not be straightforward. In unpacking the return sponsorship mechanism, Olivia Sundberg Diez and Florian Trauner have reached the following five conclusions: 1) Existing conflicts between member states over responsibility-sharing will not be settled but transposed onto discussions about the precise requirements of return sponsorship, in particular, the transfer of migrants within Europe if returns are unsuccessful. 2) The flexibility embedded in the solidarity mechanism comes at the expense of tangible support for EU border states, who continue to shoulder a disproportionate amount of the responsibility to receive and process new arrivals. 3) Matching the preferred contributions of a sponsor with a border state’s needs will be extremely complex in terms of administration, and effective enforcement tools are lacking. Repeated delays and the politicisation of solidarity processes are likely, giving member states many opportunities to shift and shirk their responsibilities. 4) Return sponsorships may create new human rights risks for migrants ordered to return, both in and outside of the EU. 5) The return sponsorship concept relies on returns being done faster and in far greater numbers. This is far from certain: many third countries, for one, will remain reluctant to readmit their own nationals. The Commission is taking a considerable risk with the return sponsorship proposal while the potential gains are modest. If the proposal is to move forward, negotiators should prioritise strengthening the predictability and tangibility of support provided by the solidarity mechanism to the EU’s border states, ensure that return sponsorships do not lead to new human rights violations, and avoid inflated expectations regarding the impact of the growing use of conditionality on returns.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, European Union, Borders, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe

404. The EU–UK relationship: It is what it is

Author:
Fabian Zuleeg and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement might have pulled both sides back from the brink of a no-deal cliff edge, but it remains a shaky foundation for the next stage of EU–UK relations. Both sides must invest in the relationship and rebuild trust to prevent any conflict from escalating into a tit-for-tat. Or else, they risk the collapse of the deal and the return to a no-deal-like state. In the first months of its new phase, the relationship is already off to a rocky start. The rows over the diplomatic status of the EU mission in London and the Commission’s (now reversed) decision to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol expose the volatility of the relations and the importance of good communication and trust. The hope for a deal came with the expectation that it would provide the foundation upon which a closer relationship could be constructed over time. It now seems more likely that it will be the basis for a diverging – and at times conflicting – relationship, with little prospect for a significantly closer economic relationship anytime soon. There seems little political appetite on both sides to build on the economic settlement meaningfully, which would require a significant shift of red lines. Previous expectations that a deal would pave the way for outstanding issues, such as the EU granting equivalence for financial services, have also diminished. Given both the political climate and many red lines, the agreed thin economic settlement may be the most we can expect.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

405. The EU’s legal migration acquis: Patching up the patchwork

Author:
Tesseltje de Lange and Kees Groenendijk
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The European Commission and EU member states must increase intra-EU mobility opportunities for already lawfully present third-country nationals (TCNs). A considerable workforce of TCNs is waiting to work across EU borders in the same way as EU citizens; their waiting is not conducive to making the EU legal migration acquis patchwork work. In its proposal on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, the European Commission has set out to do just that. If it wants to succeed and address Europe’s demographic trends and the foreseeable shortages in the continent’s national labour markets, a strong focus on enhancing the intra-EU mobility of TCNs already present in the EU is imperative. This Issue Paper presents five key recommendations that would improve the patchwork of the legal migration acquis. Harmonise existing rules. Full harmonisation of the legal migration acquis is not the immediate aim of EU member states but could become the objective in the long run. In the meantime, the Commission can take action to lift uncertainties over the meaning and subsequent implementation of the patchwork acquis. More legal certainty can only be experienced if the labour migration directives are used and litigated. Redesign the Single Permit Directive to deal with all procedures. The Single Permit Directive should, as a general directive on procedures, expand its subject matter to include all procedures on visas for entry and procedures on renewal and status switching. This could enable quick access to the Long-Term Resident status and intra-EU mobility. Engage third parties in the enforcement of equal treatment rights. The enforcement of the Single Permit Directive can be improved by first shifting the burden of proof of unequal treatment from the single permit holder to the employer. Second, third parties (e.g. work councils, NGOs) should be granted legal standing to engage in proceedings before national courts on behalf of or in support of single permit holders. In general terms, labour rights protection should be a priority of the highest degree. Design a ‘Light Blue Card’ for medium-skilled labour. To facilitate migration for medium-skilled jobs, rather than expand the scope of the Single Permit Directive, we suggest adding an optional or add-on, ‘light blue’ alternative for medium-skilled or -qualified labour (e.g. care work) to the recast Blue Card Directive. Facilitate the intra-EU mobility of third-country nationals. Rather than allow employers to use intra-EU posting to hire ‘cheap’ TCN workers in substandard conditions in low- and medium-skilled jobs, TCNs already lawfully present in the Union should get priority to access the EU labour market.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, European Union, Diversity, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

406. Europe after the Brits

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Andrew Duff argues that the loss of the United Kingdom should prompt serious reflection about the constitutional direction of the European Union. The secession of a member state changes the context of European integration. Brexit leaves the EU weaker, smaller and poorer — but it can and should also spur reform. The EU should aim to have major changes in place by 2029, including treaty revision. The reforms should include: (i) a renegotiation of the Brexit deal leading to a new class of affiliate membership; (ii) completion of the constitutional framework for a fiscal union; (iii) a European Parliament fully legitimated by election from transnational lists; and (iv) a ‘European Security Council’ of defence ministers to span the divide between the EU and NATO. The Conference on the Future of Europe may prove to be a useful democratic experiment. But it is not designed to address the important constitutional challenges that the Union faces. Duff therefore proposes creating an expert reflection group to stimulate the full implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as well as prepare the way for the next Convention which must be called to amend the EU treaties. More immediately, the reflection group should make proposals to settle the controversial matter of how to elect the new President of the European Commission in 2024.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, European Union, Brexit, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

407. After Brexit: Could bilateral agreements facilitate the free movement of persons?

Author:
Diego Acosta
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Some of the millions of EU nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU are already suffering from Brexit’s drastic curtailment of the right to free movement. How can migration now be governed and facilitated between the two parties? Although an EU-wide agreement with the UK that ensures free movement remains the ideal solution, it is currently unrealistic. This calls for an evaluation of possible alternatives. Bilateral agreements should be explored and examined as a possible alternative to an EU-wide agreement with the UK to facilitate and govern cross-border mobility. Various bilateral free movement agreements across Europe show that their use is not only legal but also habitual. They offer flexibility when it comes to the rights of entry, residency and work, as well as other important rights. And they could also be used as a foundation upon which to build an agreement between the EU as a whole and the UK, if not to facilitate the rebuilding of mutual trust. Migration law expert Diego Acosta makes a further case for Spain being the first possible candidate for a post-Brexit bilateral free movement agreement concluded between an EU member state and the UK. Spain is the most important EU destination for British emigrants, and British migrants residing in Spain constitute the latter’s third-largest non-national population. In turn, the UK is the most important migrant destination for Spanish nationals worldwide, who represent the fifth-largest migrant group from the EU. He offers concrete suggestions as to what a bilateral treaty between Spain and the UK could include. In addition, governments of EU member states that have important reciprocal migration flows with the UK, as well as the UK government, should consider the following recommendations when exploring the possibility of adopting bilateral agreements on migration: The negotiating parties should place the rights and interests of both short-term and long-term British and European nationals residing in each other’s territory at the centre stage. In negotiating a possible treaty, both the respective EU member state (e.g. Spain) and the UK should take the pre-Brexit status quo as the departing point. The status of mobile nationals could be improved beyond that enjoyed by EU citizens pre-Brexit. For example, political rights could be extended beyond the municipal level. Certain categories of individuals (e.g. retirees, young workers) could benefit from special provisions which also depart from the pre-Brexit situation.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Diversity, and Mobility
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

408. The von der Leyen Commission: Time to reset, regroup and get things done

Author:
Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As Commission President Ursula von der Leyen prepares her State of the Union speech that will map out the second half of her mandate, she must seize the opportunity to reset her Com­mission after more than 18 months in crisis-fighting mode. In broad lines, the European Commission’s priorities – fostering a collective recovery from the pandemic; rolling out Europe’s green, digital and geopolitical makeover – are the right ones. But today’s pace of change requires an updated outlook, fresh ideas and a critical examination of the President’s leadership, methods and structures. Georg Riekeles lifts the veil and outlines three essential questions which guide a reflection on what this Commission now stands for: How does the Commission ensure a continued capacity for fresh thinking and renewal to direct the EU’s political agenda? Can the EU deal with the political fall-out from uncertainty, shocks and change? Is the Commission’s executive structure tailored to deliver the major tasks it faces? With many strong personalities and seasoned politicians, von der Leyen’s Commission has potential, and yet much of its agenda remains undelivered. Now is the time for her administration to regroup and get things done in the final three years of her term. The below five recommendations addressed to President von der Leyen outline what should be done to improve her leadership and administration’s delivery within the current legal and institutional framework and complete the mandate assigned to her by Europe’s leaders and the European Parliament: Establish independent thought and foresight, capable of challenging established ideas and structures, at the heart of the Commission’s leadership and policy agenda. Clarify responsibilities over priority deliveries in the next three years within the College, including her own working relationship and shared leadership with the (Executive) Vice-Presidents. Rethink the inter-institutional cooperation on major transformative EU projects, such as the Green Deal and digital transition, which must be co-constructed across institutions, from inception to adoption, through dedicated structures and processes. To better process member states’ political concerns, von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel should offer First Vice-President Frans Timmermans the ‘Barnier seat’ at the European Council. Experiment further with the task force model, relying on the dual leadership of a politician and a high-level civil servant that are given direct access to top staff and resources across the Commission to solve a specific mission. Provide immediate remedy to resource allocation problems in overburdened Directorates-General and enact a proper reform of staffing policies.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Institutions, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

409. The European Green Deal: How to turn ambition into action

Author:
Annika Hedberg
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The pressure is on. The climate and ecological crises are accelerating and there is growing recognition that business as usual is not an option. The EU can and should play a major role in addressing the planetary crisis, in enabling and accelerating the transition to a more sustainable world. It can do this by acting as a rule-maker and enforcer; as an economic powerhouse; as a source of significant funding within the EU and beyond, as well as a mobiliser for private financing; as a convening power; as an innovator and developer of new solutions; as a standard-setter; as a major producer and consumer. The European Green Deal is crystal clear in its ambition. However, as this ambition and its goals are turned into policies and initiatives, the greatest challenge lies in the ‘how’. How to turn the ambition of the European Green Deal into real action and real results? This paper argues that to achieve the goals of the European Green Deal and leverage impact beyond EU borders as well, there are five fundamental strands of action for the EU and its member states: Leadership that communicates the urgency for action. Europe needs leaders - be it politicians, policymakers, media, heads of military or other opinion influencers - that communicate clearly the direction of travel and remind the public of the benefits of action as well as the costs of inaction for the economy, society and people. Aligning member state action with the agreed goals requires political will, ownership of the needed measures and recognising that urgent action is in every nation’s interest. This calls for using every tool in the kit, including EU policies, investments and collective action, to get on the right track. It requires addressing existing incoherencies in the policy and investment framework as well as better enforcement of existing rules. Bringing business along: The EU needs to help create the right framework conditions for European businesses – big and small - to succeed in the transition and to become a leader in those solutions that are increasingly demanded in- and outside of the EU. Bringing people along: Reaching the agreed goals requires communicating and showing the benefits that the measures will bring to people; managing the social impact on the most vulnerable in particular; and providing people with the right tools to engage in the transition. Global action: The EU should lead by example but also collaborate with other major players in addressing the climate and the wider sustainability crises. When the EU speaks and acts as one, it can be more powerful and impactful globally than the sum of its parts.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, Economy, Sustainability, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

410. Guidelines for Intelligence Oversight for Parliamentary Committees in the Assembly of the Republic of North Maced

Author:
Teodora Fuior
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The Guidelines for Intelligence Oversight reviews the Macedonian legislative framework and oversight system, and it provides information on international principles and good practices in intelligence oversight. It is designed to inform and support parliamentary committees in fulfilling their oversight mandate, especially in conceptualizing and planning oversight activities which need to contribute to an uncontested improvement of parliamentary performance in intelligence and security oversight. This revised version of the Guidelines shall respond to the expectations and needs of the new members of the Assembly, continuing to serve as a useful and informative tool for their work.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Governance, and Oversight
Political Geography:
Europe and North Macedonia

411. Cybersecurity in the Western Balkans: A Guide to Public-Private Partnerships

Author:
Franziska Klopfer and Irina Rizmal
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This Guide is designed to support Western Balkan governments and non-state actors that are planning to establish cybersecurity Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as part of their public–private cooperation. Drawing on international best practice, and referencing the region’s distinctive cultural, economic, and social context, it highlights options for establishing suitable cooperation frameworks and methods for overcoming obstacles. Chapter 1 of this Guide defines and sets out the main concepts and principles that underpin the guidance on planning, establishing, and maintaining a cybersecurity PPP. Chapter 2 provides practical, advice on how to plan, set up, and run a cybersecurity PPP in the specific context of the Western Balkans. Chapter 3 presents various types of cybersecurity PPPs and offers concrete examples from the Western Balkans and other parts of the world. A second text entitled “Legal and policy frameworks in Western Balkan economies on PPPs in cybersecurity” provides a succinct overview of the frameworks already in place in the Western Balkan economies.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Public Sector, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

412. Cybersecurity Capacity Building and Donor Coordination in the Western Balkans

Author:
Fabio Barbero and Nils Berglund
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
As the interwoven threats and opportunities of cybersecurity and digital development grow more complex, and geopolitical tensions rise, both donors and recipients should look towards a more holistic understanding of capacity building in the Western Balkans, while embracing an approach which enables meaningful international engagement on the peace and security of cyberspace. Continued interest and investment in cybersecurity capacity building in the region clearly indicates that the Western Balkans remain strategically important for a number of international actors. Systematic coordination-by-design methodologies and best practices among donors that utilise whole-of-society and multi-stakeholder approaches can improve the legitimacy, ownership and sustainability of outcomes in the context of persistent challenges to human capacity, political will, and resource scarcity. Furthermore, to better define the roles of different capacity building actors, help identify opportunities for strategic partnerships, and clarify donor-recipient relationships, donors should seek to strengthen the links between policy objectives and strategies for capacity building interventions. This discussion paper explores how cyber capacity building actors and initiatives in the Western Balkans could be better coordinated, while considering the barriers to reaching cyber maturity in the region. Firstly, the paper offers a brief overview of projects, donors, and implementing organisations active in the Western Balkans, based on desk research and a series of interviews with relevant stakeholders. Secondly, the paper explores best practices on coordination through the framework implemented by Operational Guidance for the EU’s International Cooperation on Cyber Capacity Building. Based on the above findings, practical insights and recommendations are proposed, with an eye towards enhancing future cybersecurity capacity building investment
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, and Donors
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

413. Germany and the World of Yesterday

Author:
Leon Mangasarian
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
In the past six decades, the four pillars of Germany’s post-World War II security model were built and expanded: NATO, the European Union, trans-Atlanticism and free trade. This gave Germans their longest period of peace, making them fantastically rich as the world’s fourth biggest economy. Can Germany’s view of itself as a ‘big Switzerland’ be sustained? Leon Mangasarian argues not. The Biden presidency is providing Germans with a false sense of security, one which means that Germany will fail to build the appropriate policies and NATO alliances Germany desperately needs in order to build a grand strategy of its place in Europe. If that debate is not led by the chancellery then it needs to come from the Bundestag, from the country’s expanding think tank community, the universities and citizen fora.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Economy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

414. Shaping the Indo-Pacific? Japan and Europeanisation

Author:
Yee-Kuang Heng
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
In this Strategic Update, Professor Yee-Kuang Heng investigates European power projection and presence in the Indo-Pacific, and its converging nature with Japan’s attempt to shape the regional environment in its favour. While UK threat perceptions have converged significantly with Japan’s since former Prime Minister David Cameron’s promulgation of a “golden era” in relations with China, managing expectations of Japan’s attempt to ‘shape’ and encourage Europeanisation remains crucial. But is it fair to conclude that Japan has been successful in encouraging a stronger European presence to help it shape the Indo-Pacific order?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Europeanization, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific

415. A Generation of Italian Economists

Author:
Enrico Nano, Ugo Panizza, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We examine the role of financial aid in shaping the formation of human capital in economics. Specifically, we study the impact of a large merit-based scholarship for graduate studies in affecting individuals’ occupational choices, career trajectories, and labor market outcomes of a generation of Italian economists with special focus on gender gaps and the role of social mobility. We construct a unique dataset that combines archival sources and includes microdata for the universe of applicants to the scholarship program and follow these individuals over their professional life. Our unique sample that focuses on the high end of the talent and ability distribution also allows us to analyze the characteristics of top graduates, a group which tends to be under-sampled in most surveys. We discuss five main results. First, women are less likely to be shortlisted for a scholarship as they tend to receive lower scores in the most subjective criteria used in the initial screening of candidates. Second, scholarship winners are much more likely to choose a research career and this effect is larger for women. Third, women who work in Italian universities tend to have less citations than men who work in Italy. However, the citation gender gap is smaller for candidates who received a scholarship. Fourth, women take longer to be promoted to the rank of full professor, even after controlling for academic productivity. Fifth, it is easier to become a high achiever for individuals from households with a lower socio-economic status if they reside in high social mobility provinces. However, high-achievers from lower socio-economic status households face an up-hill battle even in high social mobility provinces.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Gender Issues, Human Capital, Career, and Financial Aid
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

416. Charlie Hebdo’s Caricatures and Macron’s Statements in the Eyes of Francophone Muslim Preachers

Author:
Elad Ben David
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In January issue of Beehive, Elad Ben David analyses the reaction of French Muslim preachers to the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo’s republication in September 2020 of the controversial cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe and France

417. Gains Associated with Linking the EU and Chinese ETS under Different Assumptions on Restrictions, Allowance Endowments, and international Trade

Author:
Malte Winkler, Sonja Peterson, and Sneha Thube
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Linking the EU and Chinese Emission Trading Systems (ETS) increases the cost-efficiency of reaching greenhouse gas mitigation targets, but both partners will benefit – if at all – to different degrees. Using the global computable-general equilibrium (CGE) model DART Kiel, we evaluate the effects of linking ETS in combination with 1) restricted allowances trading, 2) adjusted allowance endowments to compensate China, and 3) altered Armington elasticities when Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets are met. We find that generally, both partners benefit from linking their respective trading systems. Yet, while the EU prefers full linking, China favors restricted allowance trading. Transfer payments through adjusted allowance endowments cannot sufficiently compensate China so as to make full linking as attractive as restricted trading. Gains associated with linking increase with higher Armington elasticities for China, but decrease for the EU. Overall, the EU and China favor differing options of linking ETS. Moreover, heterogeneous impacts across EU countries could cause dissent among EU regions, potentially increasing the difficulty of finding a linking solution favorable for all trading partners.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

418. Trade Liberalization along the Firm Size Distribution: The Case of the EU-South Korea FTA

Author:
Sonali Chowdhry and Gabriel Felbermayr
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
How do firms of different sizes react to trade liberalization? Leading theories suggest that, amongst continuing exporters, lower trade costs should boost exports of smaller firms by the same or a greater rate than those of larger firms. However, studying the entry into force of the ambitious EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (EUKFTA) with French customs data, we find robust evidence to the contrary. Applying a triple-difference framework, we report that the FTA increased sales in the top quartile of continuous exporters by 71 percentage points more than in the bottom quartile. More than 90 percent of that growth premium is driven by a stronger effective reduction in broadly defined non-tariff barriers (NTBs); the remainder by a higher sensitivity to trade costs. These findings have implications for both heterogeneous firm trade models and for the capacity of FTAs to magnify inequality. In contrast, on the entry margins, our results are in line with the literature with the FTA selecting intermediate-sized firms into exporting to South Korea.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Trade Liberalization, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Korea

419. Automotive Global Value Chains in Europe

Author:
Matteo Gaddi and Nadia Garbellini
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In this paper we examine the main transformations that are affecting European automotive industry and which challenges, in particular due to the transition to new forms of propulsion, the industry is going to face. The automotive industry is central to the European economy and the nature of the Global Value Chains are rapidly shifting. While individual countries have developed economic plans to address this, a broader EU wide plan is critically important to addressing the employment and environmental effects of these shifts.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, European Union, Manufacturing, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Europe

420. Local David Versus Global Goliath: Populist Parties and the Decline of Progressive Politics in Italy

Author:
Matteo Cavallaro
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of local spending, particularly on social welfare, and local inequality as factors in the Italian political crisis following the adoption in 2011 of more radical national austerity measures. We employ two different methods. First, we develop an original database of municipal budgets. There we show that even the lowest level of social welfare spending, that offered by Italian municipalities, though also hit by austerity, was still able to moderate this national shock. We test three operationalizations of local spending: aggregate current expenditures, aggregate current expenditures on social services, and current expenditures disaggregated by function. We show that municipal current expenditures, particularly on social spending, significantly affected the post-2011 share of votes for the progressive coalition. The results also show that social spending, especially on education, significantly moderated the combined effect of national austerity and the economic crisis on voting for populist radical right parties, while no significant results appeared for populist parties in general. Local inequality appears to significantly enhance vote shares of populist radical right parties and populist parties in general. We caution that, although significant, the effect is not strong: that local policy and economic conditions can moderate national shocks but cannot reverse them. The second analysis relies on survey data to ascertain the individual-level mechanisms behind the role of local welfare. The paper argues that local economic inputs influence voters’ position on non-economic issues. Our results, however, do not identify any significant individual-level channel of transmission, be it cultural or economic.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Inequality, Populism, and Austerity
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

421. An Abrupt Awaking to the Realities of a Pandemic: Learning Lessons From The Onset of COVID-19 in the EU and Finland

Author:
Mika Aaltola, Johanna Ketola, Aada Peltonen, and Karoliina Vaakanainen
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although their timing and nature is unexpected and disrupts normality, pandemics are not black swans, but rather an expected feature of a feverishly con- nected and globalizing world. Since the end of the Cold War, there have been several serious cases of and close calls with pandemics, including SARS in 2003, H1N1 infuenza (“swine fu”) in 2009 and Ebola in 2014. By now, we know the usual features of pandemics, how they emerge and the shape of their temporal context: rapid onset leading to a politically compelling impact followed by decreasing attention and lessening restric- tive policies resulting, in some cases, in the return of the disease. Te most serious pandemics, like the 1918 infuenza pandemic (“Spanish fu”), come in waves. Te less restrictive policies are followed by subsequent waves, partially propelled by diminishing attention and wishful policies until a cure or vaccination is found, or immunity achieved. Despite the growing awareness, pandemic diseases nevertheless often catch us of guard and bring about human misery. Te latest form of Severe Acute Res- piratory Syndrome caused by a novel coronavirus, Covid-19, which spread like wildfre around the globe in 2020, came as a surprise even though the point of origin and secrecy surrounding its emergence were similar to that of its predecessor, SARS, in 2003. In other words, pandemics continue to include “un- known” aspects, which have to do with their specifc characteristics, perhaps most notably their timing, but also other features such as infection and fatality rates, patterns of spread, and the outbreak location zone(s). Our starting point in this Working Paper is that se- rious contagious diseases are political as their cascad- ing and nonlinear efects impact people’s livelihoods and disrupt normality. Tis applies to the most recent coronavirus pandemic, as highlighted in this paper. Te key research question concerns how the European Union (EU) and its member states, illustrated through the case of Finland, became aware of the prevailing health crisis, and the kind of political ramifications that the response had, and could have had. Te focus of this paper is on the frst two and a half months of the coronavirus pandemic, from January to mid-March 2020, by which time the pandemic had replaced the prevailing agendas in the EU and in its member states and saturated the public debate, reach- ing a tipping point. Te onset entails a build-up to a clear situational policy necessity, a sentiment that drastic, exceptional actions need to be taken to con- tain or at least to slow down the pandemic outbreak, as well as a remorseful debate and fnger-pointing at actions that should have been taken sooner. Te paper studies this build-up phase while recognizing that the next phase of political reaction to a pandemic tends to include the sentiment that enough has been done or even that the actions that were taken earlier were somewhat excessive and overblown.1 Tis phase may be followed by – and is an important constituent of – yet another phase, the second wave of the pandemic. The timeframe for the Working Paper extends to mid-March 2020 when Covid-19 became the prevail- ing topic of public concern in Europe. We refer to this prevalence as the tipping point. Te term tipping point is used to identify the critical juncture, both nation- ally as well as in the EU, when sudden changes to be- haviour took place at the public and political levels. At such moments, public attention becomes heightened, single-issue focused, and rushed. Te pressure for po- litical action becomes paramount. Te mobilization of resources as well as the introduction of diferent states of emergency suddenly seem possible. Te emergent, situational requirements become the context for pol- icymaking, instead of the requirements of the then prevailing normality; namely, exceptional political acts can prevail when urgency seems to necessitate them. Te situated characteristics of a pandemic include a heightened sense of exceptionality, particularly if there is a sense that prior preparations at national, regional, and global levels were inadequate and the contingency planning insufcient. Any delays and hesitations are easily seen as weaknesses although, in normal times, they are often the keys to stable and rational political deliberation. Tis was the scenario that actualized with Covid-19, as the preparedness planning for pandem- ic security was largely perceived as defcient and the global as well as the European regional coordination in short supply.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

422. EU Strategic Autonomy in the Shadow of Geopolitical Rivalry: A View from Moscow

Author:
Sergey Utkin
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU is determined to maintain the transatlantic bond, while Russia tends to interpret the EU’s strategic autonomy precisely as autonomy from the US. The Western unity effort is significantly strengthened by the poor state of the EU’s relations with Russia. Russia is ready to pay lip service to the idea of a more capable EU, but instead it sees opportunities in areas where bilateral cooperation with member states is possible. The EU-wide consensus is doomed to remain critical vis-à-vis Russia for the foreseeable future. The EU will increasingly focus on gaining autonomy from Russia, primarily in the energy field and in terms of hard security deterrence. The EU-Russia geopolitical tension, centred on the common neighbourhood, is long-term and might cause as yet unseen damage to the relationship if it is not handled carefully.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, Regionalism, Autonomy, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

423. Russia’s Nationalities Policy before and after the 2020 Constitutional Amendments: Is the “Ethnic Turn” Continuing?

Author:
Veera Laine
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In January 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a set of constitutional amendments, aiming to secure the continuity of his power in the years to come. At the same time, the amendments allowed ideological visions on national identity to be inscribed in the Constitution. Since summer 2020, the Constitution has enhanced the symbolic status of the Russian language, which is now not only the state language but also the language of those who speak it (i.e. of “ethnic” Russians or “Russian-speakers”), implicitly referred to as the state-founding people. These provisions, together with support for compatriots abroad, not only continue the turn observable since the 2010s in Russia’s nation-building from a civic vision towards an ethnic vision of nation, but also challenge the existing interpretations of state borders. The provisions on safeguarding the “historical truth” and establishing a single framework for education hinder the republics from pursuing their identity policies. This Working Paper argues that the amendments both adjust the earlier changes and signal new ones in the official discourse and nationalities policy.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Constitution, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

424. Renewable Energy Communities in the European Energy Policy: An Evidence of Clean Energy For All Europeans, Not By All

Author:
Loic Cobut
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In 2016, the European Commission recognized the role of renewable energy communities (RECs) in the Clean Energy Package (CEP). This package has been accompanied by a narrative of citizen empowerment while the EU energy and climate governance since the Paris Agreement has become more polycentric, seeking to further include non-state actors in the fight against climate change. This policy paper takes the opportunity of these evolutions to present RECs and the concepts of polycentric governance and empowerment based on existing academic literature. It combines these two concepts to analyse the evolution of the renewable energy governance of the EU through the CEP. The analysis is conducted in a reflexive manner that sheds light on the analytical inputs and limits of these concepts. More particularly, it pinpoints the limits of the EU interpreta- tion of empowerment and polycentricity, namely by exploring the place given to RECs and their struggle with energy incumbents. In a nutshell, this paper considers both the outcome of the CEP and what it tells about the renewable energy govern- ance of the EU itself. Ultimately, it provides with recommendations for a future revision of the renew- able energy policy of the European Union as well as for the coming transposition of the measures that were delivered by the CEP.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Governance, European Union, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

425. The EU-US Trade and technology Council: Mapping the Challenges and Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation on Trade, Climate, and Digital

Author:
Guillaume Van der Loo, Thijs Vandenbussche, and Andreas Aktoudianakis
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The EU-US Summit on 15 June 2021 marked the beginning of a renewed transatlantic partner- ship and set an ambitious joint agenda for EU-US cooperation post-COVID-19. The new Biden administration offers the EU the opportunity to re-establish transatlantic relations, which reached their lowest point since World War II under the turbulent Trump administration, and to address the bilateral disputes and tensions that have emerged, partly as a result of Trump’s ‘America First’ policies. One of the key deliverables of the Summit was the establishment of the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The TTC aims to deepen EU-US relations on trade and investment and to avoid new technical barriers to trade by cooperating on key poli- cies such as technology, digital policy issues and supply chains. Despite the optimism in Brussels and Washington about renewing and strengthening transat- lantic cooperation, there are several challenges for EU-US cooperation. In the areas of trade, digital and climate in particular several differing views or outstanding disputes (most of them inherited by the Trump administration) will need to be addressed by the new TTC (the first meeting is scheduled on 29-30 September 2021) or other joint bodies. Only then will the EU and the US be able to deliver on the new ambitious transatlantic agenda. This paper will there- fore discuss the key challenges and opportunities for EU-US cooperation in the three inter- related areas of trade, digital and climate. For each of these areas, the outcome of the June 2021 EU-US Summit will be discussed and the challenges and opportunities for delivering on the renewed transatlantic agenda will be analysed. Moreover, this paper will present several policy recommendations, for the TTC or on EU-US cooperation in general, on how to advance the transatlantic partnership.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, European Union, Digitalization, and Summit
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

426. Strengthening EU Civilian Crisis Management: The Civilian CSDP Compact and Beyond

Author:
Timo Smit
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The Civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) Compact has been the most serious attempt to date to strengthen civilian CSDP. However, progress on the commitments to increase secondments to missions and to promote a better representation of women in them has been mixed at best. Secondments have increased in absolute terms, enabled by the expansion of several missions, but the share of seconded personnel has fallen to 62 per cent overall and even lower in some missions. Women’s representation has not increased overall, although it has improved in some missions and among heads of mission. Personnel contributions by European Union member states have not increased enough to prevent a steady rise in contracted personnel in missions, including in operational positions. It is therefore increasingly unlikely that the aim to raise the share of seconded personnel to 70 per cent can be achieved by mid 2023, when the compact ends. This SIPRI Insights paper analyses these trends and recommends, among other things, alternative indicators for demonstrating progress towards the more effective staffing of civilian CSDP missions.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe

427. China–EU Connectivity in an Era of Geopolitical Competition

Author:
Ian Anthony, Jiayi Zhou, Jingdong Yuan, Fei Su, and Jinyung Kim
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The long-standing relationship between China and the European Union (EU) is being subsumed into a broader geopolitical competition between major power centres. Alongside cooperation, elements of competition and rivalry have been sharpened by a re-evaluation of the bilateral relationship by EU actors. Areas of cooperation have included Chinese involvement in the EU’s internal connectivity projects—specifically in transport and digital networks. This report examines this cooperation and assesses its prospects. Enhancing connectivity within and around the EU to facilitate trade and commercial relations was relatively uncontroversial even if initiatives were never fully aligned. But the space for common projects has been narrowed by political divergence and new sensitivities in the EU regarding the security implications of Chinese investments. China understands that the EU’s scrutiny of its investments and restrictions on its involvement in connectivity projects are affected by EU–US relations. Despite these tensions, the report shows that constructive ways forward in this globally significant relationship are still possible, both within and beyond the connectivity domains.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

428. European Union and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Mehmet Ünlü
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) on July 7, 2017. The Treaty is a legal instrument that highlights the humanitarian aspect of nuclear disarmament and provides an alternative to the disarmament approach of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Because this Treaty sought to eliminate nuclear weapons, nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and states whose security is based on nuclear deterrence, criticized it for weakening the NPT. However, particular states and supranational nongovernmental organizations, such as the International Campaign for the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) opposed nuclear proliferation by carrying out an active, vigorous campaign to ban nuclear weapons and accomplish the goals of the TPNW. Here, two opposing sides emerged on this rather current issue. This study examines the potential of the European Union (EU) which has members from both sides and has policies towards non-proliferation and controlling nuclear weapons since its foundation, to lead and advance the movement of the ban of nuclear weapons, namely the TPNW process. The study intends to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the EU in its support and contribution to the TPNW process, conducting a further discussion on the issue.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, European Union, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Europe

429. Household Food Waste Developments: A Comparison of Progress in the European Union and the United States

Author:
Sara Zaat
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The importance of addressing worldwide food waste in terms of combatingclimate change andalleviating food insecurity should not be overlooked(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations[FAO],2011; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations[FAO],2013). According to the FAO, around one-third of certainfood in the worldgoes unconsumedevery year, resulting in a loss of resources, including greenhouse gases (GHGs)(FAO, 2011; FAO, 2013). Considering the world will likely haveoverninebillion people by 2050 (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2019; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2019), wasting good food is an increasingly egregious act; accordingly, theSustainable Development Goals ofthe United Nations include responsibly using food (United Nations, n.d.). One of the United Nations’ specific goals for 2030 is to “halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels and reduce food losses along production and supply chains, including post-harvest losses” (United Nations, n.d., Goal 12 targets section, para. 3).It is especially important to addresshouseholdfood waste in higher-income countries, where consumers are often a largecontributor (FAO, 2011).Which of suchcountries can lead efforts to addressthis harmful, household-level consumer food waste and support under-resourced communities? This Paper will discusssome ofthefood waste research, interventions, and reduction resolutionsin the United States (US) and in countries in the European Union (EU)to better understandfood waste in these countries.
Topic:
Development, Food, European Union, Waste, and Household
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

430. A Template for Staged Accession to the EU

Author:
Michael Emerson, Dušica Lazarević, Steven Blockmans, and Strahinja Subotić
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
An idea is gaining ground that a system of accession to the EU in stages is now needed to revive and sustain the incentives for the states of the Western Balkans to continue their European integration journey and overcome an apparent impasse over accession prospects. At the same time there is the need to ease the most serious concerns that existing EU Member States have over the prospect of further enlargement. If there can be a broad intuitive appeal for the idea of staged accession, then what naturally follows is the need for a detailed explanation on how this would work in practice, which this paper explores for each of the EU institutions. The picture that emerges is that the EU’s institutions could well lend themselves to the idea of staged membership, with various examples or precedents to be noted, also connecting with the related idea of ‘differentiated’ integration. A successful development and practical application along these lines would do much to restore positive momentum to the European project itself, currently threatened by a damaged reputation, as well as numerous internal and external threats. The paper sets out a substantial institutional, technical and legal basis for a breakthrough out of the current impasse. It remains for political leaders in both the EU and the Western Balkans to signal their interest in such ideas, and thus launch debate at the strategic level, so that the institutions can work towards defining a formal proposal. The implementation of the system of staged accession would have to be supplemented by a robust EU policy geared towards the resolution of bilateral disputes and issues of statehood in the region.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

431. The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in its Fourth Decade

Author:
Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
As the Nagorny Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan enters its fourth decade, the 2020 war was a reminder that it remains the most dangerous conflict in the post-Soviet space. Azerbaijan completely reversed the losses it suffered in the conflict of the early 1990s, leaving the Armenian side defeated and humiliated. Russia inserted itself into the heart of the conflict zone for the first time, through the introduction of a peacekeeping force in Karabakh itself. But a final Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement that resolves the status of Nagorny Karabakh – the trigger for the conflict in 1988 – and a normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan looks as elusive as ever.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh

432. History and identity should not blight the EU’s enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU must reject any attempt to introduce notions of history and identity into its enlargement policy. Otherwise it risks trampling on its 70 years of experience in overcoming the legacy of the past and promoting a peace project based on reconciliation and the rule of law. Yet this is precisely what is happening with Bulgaria’s veto against the opening of EU accession negotiations with North Macedonia. In March of last year the European Council gave the green light for the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. A date for the first intergovernmental conference to formally launch the negotiations with both countries remains – unfortunately, out of sight.
Topic:
History, European Union, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, Identity, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bulgaria, Balkans, Albania, and North Macedonia

433. Gauging the Gravity of the Situation: The Use and Abuse of Expertise in Estimating the Economic Costs of Brexit

Author:
Christoph Semken and Colin Hay
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
HM Treasury’s estimation of the economic consequences of Brexit – using standard macroeconomic models – during the EU referendum campaign represents a remarkable intervention in a highly politicized public debate. It raises a series of questions about the use of economic expertise. Through a detailed theoretical and empirical critique of the Treasury’s methodology – and a reassessment of the likely effects of Brexit in light of this – we cast doubt on the utility of their approach, highlighting methodological issues, unrealistic assumptions, and misrepresentations of established facts. In the process we seek to identify some of the wider implications for the use and potential abuse of economic expertise in highly charged political contexts, such as the EU referendum debate.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

434. Ups and Downs in Finance, Ups without Downs in Inequality

Author:
Olivier Godechot, Nils Neumann, Paula Apascaritei, István Boza, and Martin Hällsten
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The upswing in finance over the past several decades has led to rising inequality, but do downswings in finance lead to a symmetric decline in inequality? In this paper, we analyze the asymmetry of the effect of ups and downs in financial markets, as well as the effect of increased capital requirements and the bonus cap on national earnings inequality. We use administrative employer–employee linked data on earnings from 1990 to 2017 for twelve countries. Additionally, we use data on earnings from bank reports, from 2009 to 2017 in thirteen European countries. We find a strong asymmetry in the effects of financial ups and downs on earnings inequality, a mitigating effect of rising capital requirements on the contribution of finance to inequality, and a restructuring effect of the bonus cap for the earnings of financiers, while neither policy affects absolute levels of earnings inequality.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Regulation, Inequality, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

435. UK Green Growth Index

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by the challenges of the net zero transition, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. The transition to net zero will require substantial investment and adaptation across the UK economy. This will create unique opportunities for British businesses to innovate, produce, and supply the goods and services needed to enable the transition, not only in the UK but globally. At the same time, for many parts of the economy the transition will create challenges due to the need to adapt products, processes, and skills. Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by these challenges, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. Our research suggests that green growth opportunities are especially strong in Scotland, given its existing base of green economy activity and its access to a workforce with relevant skills. Similarly, Wales appears well placed to capitalise on green growth opportunities, although it may face greater disruption in the nearer term due to its reliance on high emitting industries. Northern Ireland is also relatively exposed to disruption and may need to accelerate efforts to put in place the factors needed to fully exploit green economy opportunities. Amongst English regions, the South East and South West appear to be best placed to capitalise on the green economy and are less exposed to disruption from the transition than many other parts of the UK. In contrast, Yorkshire and the Humber may face greater disruption and has further to go to develop some of the factors needed to capitalise on green growth. London is somewhat of an outlier: its status as a city-region with a service-orientated economy means it is much less exposed to the challenges than areas which rely more on industrial activity, but it also has less scope to capitalise on green economy opportunities in fields such as manufacturing and energy (although it is well positioned to develop as a centre for green finance and other professional services).
Topic:
Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

436. The Economic Importance of Motorcycles to Europe

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Motorcycle-related activity supports €21.4 billion of output (GDP) across Europe a year, sustains 389,000 jobs, and generates €16.6 billion of tax revenues, according to research by Oxford Economics. This means that in 2019 economic activities associated with motorcycling generated more GDP, and employed more people, than the metropolitan area economies centred on Venice, Malaga, and Palma de Mallorca. The total tax impact would have been sufficient to cover the pay of 380,000 teachers, or some 6.5% of all European teachers. Four-fifths of the total was accounted for by six countries, namely Italy (23%), Germany (20%), France (13%), the UK (11%), Spain (7%), and Austria (7%). This report, commissioned by ACEM, the motorcycle industry in Europe, also investigates the international trade in motorcycles and parts. In 2019, manufacturers in the EU-27 and the UK sold €2.1 billion of these goods to non-European customers—so that exports accounted for 39% of their total sales by value. Even so, European countries had a trade deficit in these products, with imports totalling €4.5 billion. Large quantities are imported from Asian countries where European manufacturers face high import tariffs. These high custom duties protect their domestic markets by making European vehicles relatively more expensive. This report, commissioned by ACEM, the motorcycle industry in Europe, also investigates the international trade in motorcycles and parts. In 2019, manufacturers in the EU-27 and the UK sold €2.1 billion of these goods to non-European customers—so that exports accounted for 39% of their total sales by value. Even so, European countries had a trade deficit in these products, with imports totalling €4.5 billion. Large quantities are imported from Asian countries where European manufacturers face high import tariffs. These high custom duties protect their domestic markets by making European vehicles relatively more expensive.
Topic:
Economics, Fiscal Policy, Manufacturing, and Motor Vehicles
Political Geography:
Europe

437. The economic contribution of UK rail

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in 2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the railways and in the rail supply sector, were above-average in every region. The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production and was associated with 710,000 jobs and £14.1 billion in tax revenues in 2019, new research by Oxford Economics finds. The rail transport system—Network Rail and the train and metro system operators—accounted for £12.2 billion of that total Gross Value Added (GVA) measure of output. For every £1 of activity on the railway system itself, a further £2.50 of income was generated elsewhere in the UK economy, as a result of supply chain links and other knock-on effects. This extra GVA comprised £17.8 billion in the rail supply sector, £0.9 billion in on-station retail and its suppliers, and £12.0 billion across the wider consumer-facing economy due to wage-funded employee spending (the so-called ‘induced impact’). The study, commissioned by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), also finds that both productivity and wages are higher than the economy-wide average, in both the rail transport system and rail supply sector. This is true not just for the UK as a whole, but for every one of its 12 constituent regions and countries. Finally, the analysis looks at the potential impact of extra public spending on the UK rail infrastructure. Looking further into the future, if rail infrastructure spending were 50% higher than the ‘baseline’ expectation, an extra 104,000 rail supply sector jobs would be supported throughout the five-year period 2025-29. Even if these jobs simply displaced other work, the economy would still benefit, because of their high-productivity, high-wage nature. In the more immediate future, the economy will still be recovering from the Covid pandemic, and will therefore have a degree of spare capacity. This means that any extra jobs created by an uplift in rail infrastructure investment could be genuinely additional, rather than displacing other employment. And this work could support more new jobs in turn, through induced effects. Here, we find that every extra £100 million per annum of spending on rail infrastructure would support an additional 1,400 well-paid jobs in the rail supply sector, plus a further 700 jobs across the wider consumer-facing economy.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Railways, and Travel
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

438. The socio-economic impact of cultivated meat in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies. The cultivated meat industry is in its infancy, both in the UK and in most countries around the world. But it clearly presents significant opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors, and other commercial partners to exploit the global potential of a move away from conventional farming towards more sustainable methods. However, the UK industry is currently not able to take advantage of the commercial opportunities while it awaits regulatory approval. This report has sought to demonstrate that there is a strong economic rationale for allowing UK firms to move from research and development into production. As the report highlights, the UK cultivated meat market has the potential to grow into an industry with a total gross value added contribution to UK GDP of over £2 billion in 2030. The detailed analysis of the value of economic activity generated, the number of highly-skilled jobs created and supported, and the taxation revenue (up to £523 million) generated shows the industry has the potential to become an important sectoral driver of growth during the next decade.
Topic:
Economics, Job Creation, Socioeconomics, and Business Management
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

439. The Economic Impact of an Online Retail Sales Tax in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of an online sales tax in the UK. On 27 July 2020, HM Treasury (HMT) announced a call for evidence around the issue of a business rates review. Contained within this document was a consideration of alternative tax bases that could raise revenue for the Exchequer to compensate for any shortfall that might be created by business rates reform. One of the options proposed was an online sales tax (OST). In this context, Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of such a tax in the UK. We find that that the introduction of an OST would raise around £1.6 billion in government revenue. The burden of the tax would be split between consumers, online sales platforms, and upstream businesses. Our analysis shows that a majority of the tax’s burden will most likely be borne by consumers who could lose around £1.3 billion in welfare terms. The net inefficiencies due to the OST are estimated to be around £200 million (i.e., 13% of the revenue). The government’s fiscal options will need to be assessed against a range of economic as well as procedural criteria. In our assessment of the OST against the Treasury Select Committee’s principles of taxation, we found that the OST is distortive and also could potentially restrict SMEs from competing in the retail market. Further, the disproportionate impact on households in the lowest income decile and on economically weaker regions of the UK as well as the restrictive effect on the elderly and the disabled raise questions about the fairness of the OST.
Topic:
Economics, Digital Economy, Retail, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

440. The COVID-19 Curtain: Can Past Communist Regimes Explain the Vaccination Divide in Europe

Author:
Inés Berniell, Yarine Fawaz, Anne Laferrere, Pedro Mira, and Elizaveta Pronkina
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
As of November 2021, all former Communist countries from Central and Eastern Europe exhibit lower vaccination rates than Western European countries. Can institutional inheritance explain, at least in part, this heterogeneity in vaccination decisions across Europe? To study this question we exploit novel data from the second wave of the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe) Covid-19 Survey fielded in Summer 2021 that covers 27 European countries and Israel. First, we document lower Covid-19 vaccine take-up amongst individuals above 55 years old who were born under Communism in Europe. Next, we turn to reunified Germany to get closer to a causal effect of exposure to Iron curtain regimes. We find that exposure to the Communist regime in East Germany decreases one’s probability to get vaccinated against Covid-19 by 8 percentage points, increases that of not wanting the vaccine by 4 percentage points. Both effects are quite large and statistically significant, and they hold when controlling for individual socio-economic and demographic characteristics. We identify low social capital -measured as voluntary work, political engagement, trust in people- as a plausible channel through which past Communist regimes would still affect individuals’ preferences for Covid-19 vaccination.
Topic:
Communism, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Post-Soviet Europe

441. Financing energy innovation: internal finance and the direction of technical change

Author:
Joëlle Noailly and Roger Smeets
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and of climate neutrality by 2050 in the European Union will require mobilizing financial investments towards clean energy innovation. This study examines the role of internal finance (cash flows and cash holdings) and financing constraints for innovation in energy technologies. We construct a dataset for 1,300 Europeans combining balance-sheet information and patenting activities in renewable (REN) and fossil-fuel (FF) technologies and estimate the sensitivity of patenting activities to's internal finance. We use count estimation techniques and control for a large set of-specific characteristics and market developments in REN and FF technologies. We find that patenting activities ofs specialized in REN innovation are significantly more sensitive to a shock in cash flows thans specializing in FF innovation. Hence, our results emphasize that innovatives in clean energy may be particularly vulnerable to financing constraints. We discuss the implications of these results for energy transition policies aiming to redirect finance towards clean energy R&D.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, European Union, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Innovation, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

442. The Labour Party in Opposition and Power 1979-2019: Forward March Halted?

Author:
Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
The cycle of defeat and recovery begins in 1979 with Labour’s ejection from office following the economic and political crises of the 1970s.2 The party’s defeat was traumatic, if not unexpected. The Prime Minister, Jim Callaghan admitted: ‘There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea- change and it is for Mrs. Thatcher’. The loss of office was as nothing compared with the harrowing events of the decade that followed. Labour suffered a further three consecutive defeats. In 1981, the party was almost obliterated by the breakaway Social Democratic Party (SDP), threatening to end Labour’s grip on the centre-left vote. Only the First- Past-the-Post electoral system saved Labour as the dominant force on the Left of British politics. Even so, the party remained bitterly divided. The leadership spent years embroiled in internal factional disputes, such was its determination to destroy the hard Left entryist Militant Tendency. Since the 1950s, Labour was weakened by recurrent intra-party conflict. Most notable were its divisions over Europe, fundamental ideological disagreements about the role of the state in the economy, and the primacy that should be accorded to nationalisation and public ownership in the party’s programme.
Topic:
Elections, Political Parties, Opposition, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

443. Not for patching? Public opinion and the commitment to ‘build back better’

Author:
Karl Pike, Farah Hussain, Philip Cowley, and Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Announcing the launch of a ‘Build Back Better Council’ in January 2021, bringing together various business leaders, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that ‘as we recover from this crisis it won’t be enough to just go back to normal – our promise will be to build back better and level up opportunity for people and businesses across the UK’. 1 The following month, the Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, said he believed ‘there’s a mood in the air which we don’t detect often in Britain. It was there in 1945, after the sacrifice of war, and it’s there again now. It’s the determination that our collective sacrifice must lead to a better future’. 2 The historian and peer – and the Mile End Institute’s patron – Lord Hennessy similarly argued recently that the Covid-19 experience ‘has sharpened our sense of the duty of care we have one for another, that a state has for all of its people, to a degree we have not felt collectively since World War Two and its aftermath’. 3 These appraisals of the impact of the crisis, and political commitments to change, are giving rise to debate. Are we to experience a moment similar to that of postwar transformation? If so, what is the prospect for the Britain that emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic to be significantly different, in policy terms, from what preceded it? The latter question in particular animates this project – Not for Patching?, of which this report marks our earliest findings, based on an opinion survey. Ipsos MORI surveyed 1,120 adults across Great Britain, posing questions across a range of policy areas. Fieldwork was carried out online from 19 March 2021 to 22 March 2021, and data weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error, but they still give us an insight into the public’s priorities. Further analysis of this data, and further surveys, will continue to add to this project. The purpose of this report is to examine the views of the British public on what rebuilding after the pandemic might mean. What we offer here are some preliminary indications of what policy areas the public want to prioritise, and how the machinery of government has managed and performed during this crisis. We are interested in both priorities and performance here, not least because we consider them linked.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

444. Risen from the Ruins: The Economic History of Socialism in the German Democratic Republic

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The German Democratic Republic (DDR) was a socialist state founded in 1949 as a democratic, antifascist reaction to the Second World War. It redistributed land, socialised the means of production, and collectivised the agricultural system. This socialist state established an egalitarian education, healthcare, and social system, and guaranteed equal rights between men and women. It cultivated friendly and close-knit economic relationships with other socialist states and supported countries fighting for their independence in Latin America, Asia, and Africa by showing international solidarity. The establishment of a just society based on the principles of equality was the DDR’s declared objective. With public ownership of the means of production as its foundation, the country developed into a powerful and efficient industrial state that used its economic profit for the benefit of its citizens and guaranteed them a life of social security. Ultimately, the DDR was extremely successful in realising its main socio-political goal: the satisfaction of the growing material and cultural needs of its people. But why bother re-examining the DDR’s achievements, principles, and structures thirty years after its downfall? What can we learn from the DDR’s alternative economic practices in today’s world, where the triumph of capitalism has exacerbated the problems of inequality and poverty and has resulted in more frequent crises? What did socialist democracy really look like? What contradictions arose from the everyday application of a planned economy? What lessons can we draw from the DDR’s ultimate failure? With this series Studies on the DDR, the Internationale Forschungsstelle DDR (International Research Centre DDR) together with Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research seek to encourage a new engagement with the history and principles of the DDR. It is our goal to re-evaluate the legacy and experiences of this socialist state. For this reason, we use the German acronym DDR, or Deutsche Demokratische Republik, (English: GDR) specifically because it often represents a positive point of reference in many parts of the world and especially for countries in the Global South. This educational series on the socialist agenda and realities of the DDR explores aspects of everyday life, provides facts about the country’s social achievements, and examines the political and economic foundations of this socialist state. By reflecting on the lived experiences of daily life, which are generally left out of the dominant narrative due to the crushing victory of capitalism and the dominance of the market economy, we hope to make a useful contribution to the debate currently taking place within progressive movements. After all, millions of people around the world are still fighting for advancements that were once a given in this socialist system but were lost with its downfall. This first publication in Studies on the DDR will briefly outline the formation of the DDR and its economic circumstances from the country’s inception to its end. In order to fully understand the specific DDR brand of socialism, we must highlight the historical conditions from which it emerged. The DDR was born in times of crisis in the aftermath of a devastating war as Germany – the instigator of the Second World War – was divided in two. It is imperative that we examine the DDR in its relationship to West Germany, which it opposed in the ensuing Cold War between the communist and capitalist systems. In 1990, after the reunification of Germany, the DDR economy was dismantled. It was treated as a shock therapy prototype for the austerity measures that were soon imposed on other countries – and not just the former socialist states. At the same time, the DDR was politically, judicially, and morally delegitimised. The publications in this series are a rejection of the narrative propagated by enemies of socialism, both new and old, that the downfall of the DDR proves the inevitable failure of socialist policy and economy. By depicting the realities of life in the DDR and by affirming the experiences of DDR citizens, we hope to remind the reader that alternatives to capitalism did and do exist.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, State Building, Socialism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and East Germany

445. Communicating in Tertiary ­Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Tertiary prevention of (violent) Islamist extremism includes measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in liberty in their efforts to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society. Actors in tertiary prevention thus intervene in a multitude of contexts and work with various stakeholders. The growing understanding of the complexity of radicalization and deradicalization processes as well as practical experiences leave no doubt that multi-agency cooperation and communication is crucial to be able to reach most potential clients. However, one of the main challenges of professionals working in tertiary prevention is to identify potential points of contact, set up effective frameworks for sharing information, and establish long term relationships.
Topic:
Security, Communications, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe

446. Economic Sentiment Indicators and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from European Union Countries

Author:
Andrzej Cieślik and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of business sentiment in the decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) across European Union (EU) member states. Based on the knowledge-capital model, the study employs the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and panel data to examine empirically the determinants of FDI across EU member states during the period 2003-2017. The empirical evidence suggests that better economic sentiment in an EU Member State induces MNEs to undertake FDI in that country, while worse economic sentiment in an EU member state motivates an MNE in that country to invest abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Europe

447. German Economy Winter 2021: Recovery temporarily on hold

Author:
Martin Ademmer, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Meuchelbock, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Nils Sonnenberg, and Stefan Kooths
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The recovery of the German economy is interrupted once again. In the winter, the new Covid-19 wave will particularly hit activity in contact-intensive service sectors as in previous waves. As a result, there will be a setback in private consumer spending and probably also small declines in GDP. To the extent that the burdens of the pandemic ease in the spring, a strong recovery will set in, similar to the pattern observed this year. Economic momentum will likely be particularly high as the supply bottlenecks, which are massively dampening industrial production in this year, are expected to ease. Overall, the renewed slowdown in the recovery process caused by the pandemic will probably be larger than we had expected in our autumn economic outlook. However, the setback will be not as severe as last winter. In 2022, GDP will probably increase by 4 percent and thus less strongly than we had expected three months ago (5.1 percent). For 2023, we revise GDP growth upwards to 3.3 percent (autumn outlook: 2.3 percent). This year, GDP will increase by 2.6 percent. Inflation will remain high for the time being, also because supply bottlenecks continue to increase manufacturing costs and tighten the supply of consumer goods. At the same time, private households have accumulated additional savings of around 200 billion euros since the beginning of the pandemic and therefore have a rather high willingness to pay. Consumer price inflation will probably be around 3 percent both this and next year, before easing again in 2023. The public budget deficit will fall noticeably from 3.8 percent in relation to GDP in 2021 to 1.8 percent in 2022 due to the reduced burden of the pandemic. However, the budgets are still expected to close with a deficit of 1.4 percent in 2023.
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

448. Who benefits really from phasing out palm oil-based biodiesel in the EU?

Author:
Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Heimann, Franziska Schunemann, and Mareike Soder
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The latest Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model DART-BIO for a scenario-based policy analysis and evaluate different possible futures of biofuel use under four specifications of the RED II. Our results show that conventional biofuels will not become cost competitive to oil-based fuels. Moreover, we demonstrate the impact of the RED II specifications on the global production of food and feed crops. A further focus of this paper lies on the palm oil phase-out as feedstock for biofuels in the EU, to halt deforestation and land-use change in tropical countries. We find that this phase-out has a relatively small impact on global palm fruit production. Moreover, this study shows that the regulation has the potential to act as a technical barrier to trade, discriminating palm oil producing countries in favour of European rapeseed producers.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

449. Belarus’s Weaponization of Migration Should Make Us Reevaluate the Extent of Crimes Against Humanity and Human Rights

Author:
Peter Pinto
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
Facing temperatures below freezing and bitter winter conditions, thousands of Middle Eastern and African migrants currently remain trapped between the tumultuous borders of Belarus and its EU neighbors. Many humanitarian groups have warned of imminent danger to the migrants if this humanitarian crisis, which has seen nearly 30,000 migrants attempt to illegally cross the Polish border since August, is not quickly resolved. Despite genuine reasons for their journey, the migrants have become unsuspecting pawns in an ever-growing political chess game between Belarus and its EU neighbors. More specifically, Belarus and its President Aleksander Lukashenko are being accused of facilitating and weaponizing such migration in an attempt to punish their geopolitical rivals in the EU. The accusations are relatively well-founded considering the litany of different immigration policies adopted by Belarusian authorities in recent months, including granting visas to migrants upon arrival and escorting migrants to the Polish border. Furthermore, many view this targeted influx of migrants as political retaliation for EU sanctions against Belarus for election fraud and repression of civil rights. Perhaps in hopes of destabilizing his enemies or deterring future sanctions, President Lukashenko is using migrants and their pursuit for safety as weapons in his geopolitical war against the West. Despite his already lackluster record in humanitarian governance, this blatant indifference for migrant safety represents an escalation in his disregard for human rights. If we are to deter other authoritarian leaders from employing such inhumane tactics in the future, then we must recognize the weaponization of migration streams as a crime against humanity and a violation of human rights.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Crimes Against Humanity, Humanitarian Crisis, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

450. Trade Liberalization along the Firm Size Distribution: The Case of the EU-South Korea FTA

Author:
Sonali Chowdhry and Gabriel Felbermayr
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In 2011, the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (EUKFTA) entered into force. With its focus on non-tariff barriers (NTBs), it is a leading example of a deep new generation agreement. Using detailed French customs data for the period 2000 to 2016, we investigate how exporters of different size have gained from the agreement. Applying a diff-in-diff strategy that makes use of the rich dimensionality of the data, we find that firms with larger pre-FTA sizes benefit more from the FTA than firms at the lower end of the size distribution, both at the extensive (product) and the intensive margins of trade. The latter finding is in surprising contrast to leading theories of firm-level behavior. Moreover, we find that our main result is driven by NTB reductions rather than tariff cuts. In shedding light on the distributional effects of trade agreements within exporters, our findings highlight the need for effective SME-chapters in FTAs.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, Tariffs, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, South Korea, and European Union

451. Montenegro after the General Elections: A New Chapter in Transition or Preservation of Status Quo?

Author:
Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The general elections held in Montenegro on 30 August 2020 has once again drawn the attention of the Western Balkans to the smallest, measured by population, among seven nations that emerged after the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This attention is due to a number of factors. Back in May of 2018 Montenegro has opened the last of the thirty-three chapters in the negotiation process with the European Union, making it a harbinger among Western Balkans nations on the path to Euro-Atlantic integrations, especially as the country had joined the North Atlantic Alliance in June 2017. Other countries in the region linger behind Montenegro – Albania and North Macedonia, both NATO members, are still waiting for the opening of the negotiations with the EU. Serbia has no intention to join NATO, and in spite of EU negotiations and ambitions, sees itself in balance between the West on one side, and Russia and China on the other. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are far from NATO membership and have merely the status of potential candidates for EU membership. This is why all eyes of the region and of the advocates of continuation of EU enragement policy are on Montenegro. The second factor are strong historical ties of this country on the Adriatic coast with its northern neighbor Serbia. Serbian minority makes up to one third of Montenegro’s population, and the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC- Srpska Pravoslavna Crkva) plays a vital role in Montenegrin society, as this country does not have its own autocephalous Church recognized by other Orthodox Churches in Eastern Christendom. This gives Serbia and the SPC a significant clout within borders of its southern neighbor. The third factor is the involvement of global players in this country. The United Sates has advocated strongly to include Montenegro in NATO in order to stretch the line of NATO’s southern flank in the Northern Mediterranean from the Iberian Peninsula to the west to Greece and Turkey in the east. On the other hand, Montenegro’s authorities accused Russia of meddling in the general elections held in October 2016 when the alleged coup d’état occurred on the election day. Many feared a similar scenario on the eve of 30 August 2020 election, fathoming the outbreak of riots and violence that could ignite the powder keg in the Balkans. Although none of these happened, Montenegro is not ceasing to be the subject of the geopolitical chessboard. Considering these factors, the attention of neighbors to the events in this Balkan country is understandable. The unfolding situation after the elections in which the government of Montenegro is backed by a very thin majority in the Parliament (Skupština Crne Gore) and with no clear vision nor strategy for further political and economic development of the country, is only fueling the wariness of its neighbors and of Brussels about Montenegro as a success story.
Topic:
NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Elections, European Union, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Montenegro

452. The Mediterranean Region: A Hotspot of Inequalities in the Aftermath of COVID-19

Author:
Farah Al Shami
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, which broke out in China in late 2019, reached the Mediterranean region by late winter 2020. While the impact of this crisis has been notorious on a global scale, it was remarkably more pronounced in the Mediterranean region as a result of economic fragility, exposure and transmissibility, and more importantly the quality of state and non-state responses which had a multidimensional multiplier effect on wealth distribution, access to health and education as well as other essential services, regional disparities and gender inequality, among others. Ever since its outbreak, COVID-19 has significantly exacerbated existing inequalities and has created new ones. It has also exacerbated vulnerabilities and created new forms of vulnerability, thus increasing the gaps on various levels between different social groups. These consequences were also more concentrated in the Mediterranean region as compared to the rest of the world, as the region had already been witnessing rising trends of inequality in the last decade, and especially before the pandemic hit, due to political instability, economic decay and inefficient public policies. While this reality has been experienced by both the northern and southern sides of the Mediterranean, it has been more intense in the latter. However, this is not to deny that constantly increasing inequalities in recent history has made both poles of the Basin much more susceptible to an enigmatic and acute shock such as COVID-19. The impact of COVID-19 on multifaceted inequality in the Mediterranean is neither consistent nor linear. The region has witnessed declines in several forms of inequality and surges in several others. Yet, the overall impact in terms of the number and magnitude of increased inequalities versus reduced ones is negative, making the Mediterranean a hotspot of inequality in the aftermath of the sanitary crisis. Moreover, amplified inequalities have manifested in the Mediterranean Basin in the form of inter-country inequalities and intra-country inequalities – the former being mostly part driven by inter-sectoral imbalances. Inter-country inequalities have likely further cemented the north-south divide in the Basin. This paper examines the different forms and faces of inequality in the region by trying to conceptualize the situations of different countries, despite their dissimilar and divergent contexts. It proves that COVID-19 has massively increased multidimensional inequality through various channels and at a relatively higher rate with respect to other regions. The paper also demonstrates that the Mediterranean is the microcosm of the north-south cleavage, as it is the closest place where the South meets the North, which makes it a natural starting point for dialogue concerning the north-south dichotomy and inequalities. As such, this paper highlights the need for tangible cooperation across borders, between sectors, and among citizens and their representatives, both within the region – between the North and the South – and with other regions, to advance reforms that address the factors of inequity and inequality in an already fragile and shaky regional context.
Topic:
Inequality, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

453. Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Africa–EU Partnership on Migration and Mobility: A Developmental Perspective from West Africa

Author:
Aderanti Adepoju
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The far-ranging effects of COVID-19, and subsequent impacts on migration drivers, trends and governance, have already produced significant implications for the Africa–EU partnership on migration and mobility. The socio-economic consequences of the pandemic have been particularly deep in West Africa, with Nigeria being one of the most affected countries. The region is also one of the most relevant African contexts in terms of cross-border human mobility, with well-established migratory patterns both at a regional and inter-regional level. As COVID-19-induced restrictions and the related economic consequences continue to unfold, the partnership between the EU and the countries in Western Africa will have to recalibrate the balance between improving the livelihoods of local populations, fighting irregular migration and facilitating regular channels, so as to tap into the developmental potential of migration. While the current crisis presents new challenges for both Africa and Europe, the two parties would benefit from focusing their efforts on making migration part of the post-pandemic economic recovery and longer-term socioeconomic development. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “A New European Consensus on Asylum & Migration”.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

454. One Belt One Voice: Chinese Media in Italy

Author:
Francesca Ghiretti and Lorenzo Mariani
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Chinese media are the voice of the Chinese Communist Party at home and abroad. It is no surprise therefore that collaborations between Chinese and foreign media have been attracting more international attention. One issue that has not been yet explored is the nature and implications of the inclusion of two important Italian media actors such as Rai (the state-run broadcasting company) and Ansa (Italy’s main press agency) in the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Italy in support of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2019. These deals fit in a broader picture of an Italian media environment that is being increasingly targeted by Chinese media. However, the impact that such an effort has had on the Italian public opinion has been very limited so far and the Italian media landscape keeps offering free and varied information. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy Embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

455. Silk Road Academic Connections: China–Italy Cooperation in Higher Education and Its Implications for the West

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Cooperation in higher education and research is a positive aspect of the broader Italy–China relationship as it contributes to the advancement of the scientific and cultural environment in both countries. China has invested considerable sums to promote cooperation and exchanges with the Italian academy, including through the establishment of a dozen Confucius Institutes and a number of Confucius Classrooms. Italian universities have set up academic partnerships with Chinese entities on almost every subject. These have improved Italy’s research outlook, but have also posed inevitable risks of self-censorship and kowtowing to Chinese wishes. Moreover, there has been a surge of academic sponsorships by Chinese firms, in particular ICT companies such as ZTE and Huawei, which raise further concerns for Italy’s security interests and cooperation with its Western allies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Education, Science and Technology, Higher Education, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

456. China in Italy: Risk Assessment and Preventive Solutions

Author:
Beatrice Gallelli and Lorenzo Mariani
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy’s 2019 decision to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with China in support of the Belt and Road Initiative sparked a heated debate at home and abroad. The possibility of Italy upgrading its trade and investment relations with China through the shortcut of a political endorsement of President Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign-policy initiative was framed as either a heaven-sent opportunity or a serious strategic threat. Two years on, most of the concerns pointed out in the debate, especially regarding infrastructures, have proven unsubstantiated (although the economic opportunities for which the Italian Government wished have also failed to materialise). However, cooperation initiatives between Italian and Chinese entities in sectors often overlooked in the mainstream debate, such as media and academic partnerships, do present risks. The creation of an interagency China Information and Coordination Unit would help to prevent – or, at least, to minimise – such risks. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy Embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Education, Science and Technology, Mass Media, Foreign Direct Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

457. Unlocking European Defence. In Search of the Long Overdue Paradigm Shift

Author:
Arnout Molenaar
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union’s range of new EU security and defence initiatives are ground-breaking, but they can only deliver on their potential if member states shift the paradigm towards truly thinking, acting and working together as Europeans, based on a strategic consensus regarding the future of European defence in the changing global context. The new Strategic Compass, to be adopted by the Council in early 2022, provides a framework to develop such a shared vision. It should help to operationalise the EU’s strategic autonomy in concrete terms, in mutual reinforcement and coherence with NATO, while seizing the opportunity to strike a new transatlantic bargain with the Biden Administration. In this context, the Union should agree on concrete steps forward to become a more active security provider abroad, reinforce its resilience and protection at home, enhance its operational readiness for different scenarios, and develop new capabilities through deeper cooperation while stepping up its cooperation with partners.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

458. The EU One Year after the Covid-19 Outbreak: An Italian-German Perspective

Author:
Nicoletta Pirozzi, Luca Argenta, and Paweł Tokarski
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The spreading of the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic and social consequences have radically changed the reality of the 27 EU member states. After scattered reactions at the beginning of the crisis, the EU has taken an unprecedented step towards cohesion and solidarity with the Next Generation EU. However, in order to ensure recovery and resilience, the EU will need to act simultaneously on three levels: end the pandemic in the shortest time possible through mass vaccination, implement structural reforms and address the challenges of tomorrow, including also digitalisation and the fight against climate change. To realise these objectives, citizens’ engagement and mobilisation would be essential, thus giving new urgency to the Conference on the Future of Europe, which should be turned from a consultation process into a tool for the relaunch of the Union post-Covid. Paper published as a follow-up to the 2020 edition of the German-Italian Strategic Forum on Europe, jointly organised by IAI, FES and SWP on 27 November 2020.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

459. Implications of COVID-19 on East Africa–EU Partnership on Migration and Forced Displacement

Author:
Tsio Tadesse Abebe and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
he COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the current state and prospects of partnership between the East African countries and the European Union on migration and forced displacement. The pandemic has exacerbated the root causes of migration and forced displacement. This is manifested by the continuation of irregular arrivals in Europe including from East Africa, after a brief decline in the initial phase of the COVID-19 response. The strong economic impact of the pandemic on the region has also disrupted the implementation of the Global Compact on Refugees that aspires to address forced displacement challenges through facilitating refugees’ self-reliance. These challenges require East African countries and the EU to work towards establishing a better migration governance system with a people-centred approach and with a view to addressing the root causes of migration. East African states should drive their migration and forced displacement policies in ways that benefit their citizens. This should include devising ways of engaging the EU in line with its proposed talent partnerships in its New Pact on Migration and Asylum. The EU should work towards easing the economic burden of countries in East Africa including through providing additional development support and debt cancellation. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “A New European Consensus on Asylum & Migration”.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, European Union, Refugees, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

460. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zero-sum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, United States of America, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

461. Europe's Quest for Digital Sovereignty: GAIA-X as a Case Study

Author:
Simona Autolitano and Agnieszka Pawlowska
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
There is currently much discussion about “digital sovereignty” in Europe. While the term encompasses very diverse connotations, it refers to a broad concept involving data, technological, regulatory and political elements. Cloud computing represents one example of the concrete materialisation of the European Union’s quest for “digital sovereignty” – especially through the development of its GAIA-X project. It is too early to assess whether or not GAIA-X will definitively help the Union to achieve this much-desired goal; however, some challenges have already emerged along the way. Looking to the future, if the EU wants to achieve “digital sovereignty”, a different strategy to the one currently under discussion will be needed. Study produced as part of the project “La geopolitica del digitale”, March 2021.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Institutions, Digital Policy, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

462. Technological Competition: Can the EU Compete with China?

Author:
Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The debate on technological development and the unfolding fourth technological revolution tends to neglect the role of the EU, relegating it to follower status. The leadership positions are occupied by the US and China, who compete with one another for technological supremacy. Yet, despite lagging behind in some areas, the EU is better placed than is often assumed and still stands a chance of guaranteeing the delivery of a technological revolution that is not only environmentally but also socially sustainable. This is critical in proposing a model of technological development alternative to that of China, in particular, and especially in such sectors as artificial intelligence, supercomputing and digital skills. Study produced as part of the project “La geopolitica del digitale”, March 2021.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, European Union, Institutions, Strategic Competition, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

463. The Belt and Road Initiative in Italy: The Ports of Genoa and Trieste

Author:
Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In March 2019, Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in support of PRC President Xi Jinping’s flagship infrastructure and connectivity project, the Belt and Road Initiative. The MoU was accompanied by a series of commercial agreements, including two between the ports of Genoa and Trieste and the state-owned enterprise China Communications Construction Company (CCCC). The European Union and the United States expressed concerns about the agreements as they feared that CCCC would eventually obtain a controlling share of the ports, not unlike that recently secured by the China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) with Greece’s Port of Piraeus. However, existing legal constraints, an open international and national debate, and the vague nature of the agreements concerned have so far kept these fears from materialising. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

464. China's Belt and Road Initiative in Italy: An Analysis of Financial Cooperation

Author:
Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Financial cooperation is essential to boosting bilateral economic ties, providing firms with more effective instruments to operate in foreign markets. It should come as no surprise, then, that financial cooperation was a pillar of the 2019 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached between Italy and China in support of the latter’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, a preliminary analysis of BRI-related commercial agreements between Italian financial institutions and their Chinese counterparts shows that they have not resulted in any ground-breaking development. These Memoranda have apparently just added a “BRI” badge to pre-existing trends of collaboration. The BRI-related MoUs in the field of financial cooperation do not, for the time being at least, justify concerns that China may gain an economic foothold in Italy large enough to win it much political influence. A more realistic risk is that these MoUs may undermine a common European approach to China, weakening the negotiating stance of the European Union’s. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Governance, Finance, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

465. CBDCs for Dummies: Everything You Need to Know about Central Bank Digital Currency (And Why You Shouldn’t Be Afraid of It)

Author:
Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
“No cash accepted in this store”. What might seem to some like science fiction is on its way to becoming reality. The rise of non-cash payments is a global phenomenon, although moving at different speeds around the world. To keep up with the digitalisation of payments (and of the economy), many central banks are exploring the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), a digital form of cash. Despite being confined to a technical discussion among experts, when (rather than if) launched, CBDCs concerns us all. Thus, raising awareness of what CBDCs are, and of their key economic and political dimensions, is crucial to ensure that citizens are not only passive spectators. This paper has the ambition to provide (non-expert) readers with straightforward and simple answers to some of the many questions they may have around CBDCs. It sets the ground to better understand what CBDCs are (and are not), their drivers and their possible design. It will explore the impact of CBDC systems on privacy, the geo-strategic drivers of CBDCs and the possible rivalry between public and private money. Paper prepared in the framework of a research effort on the risks and the opportunities related to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) with the support of Intesa Sanpaolo and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:
Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

466. Deindustrialization and the Postsocialist Mortality Crisis

Author:
Gabor Scheiring, Aytalina Azarova, Darja Irdam, Katarzyna Doniec, and Martin McKee
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
An unprecedented mortality crisis struck Eastern Europe during the transition from socialism to capitalism. Working-class men without a college degree suffered the most. Some argue that economic dislocation caused stress and despair, leading to adverse health behavior and ill health (dislocation-despair approach). Others suggest that hazardous drinking inherited as part of a dysfunctional working-class culture and populist alcohol policy were the key determinants (supply-culture approach). We enter this debate by performing the first quantitative analysis of the association between economic dislocation in the form of industrial employment decline and mortality in postsocialist Eastern Europe. We rely on a novel multilevel dataset, fitting survival and panel models covering 52 towns and 42,800 people in 1989-1995 in Hungary and 514 medium-sized towns in the European part of Russia. The results show that deindustrialization was significantly associated with male mortality in both countries directly and indirectly mediated by adverse health behavior as a dysfunctional coping strategy. Both countries experienced severe deindustrialization, but social and economic policies seem to have offset Hungary’s more immense industrial employment loss. The policy implication is that social and economic policies addressing the underlying causes of stress and despair can improve health.
Topic:
Employment, Capitalism, Mortality, Alcohol, Socialism, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Hungary

467. Russia or the West – Which Should Jerusalem Choose?

Author:
Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Israeli government has not publicly expressed a position regarding the gathering of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border. Still, a renewed war between Russia and Ukraine could make it challenging to choose between its commitment to its Western allies and its important relationship with Russia.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

468. Israel and the New ‘Old Europe’

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The new German government and the upcoming elections in France create challenges and opportunities for Israel’s foreign policy, which must adapt to Europe’s evolving political map.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Israel

469. Realpolitik Should Guide Israeli-Russian Relations

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
When Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett this week meets Russian President Putin for the first time, Bennett must use a realpolitik language.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Israel

470. What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

471. Fighting antisemitism should not be Israel’s primary concern

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Fighting with Poland over Holocaust restitution is not in Israel’s national interest.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Holocaust, Conflict, Memory, and Reparations
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Poland

472. Israel Should Maintain its Mediterranean Alignment, Despite Signals from Ankara

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It should be made clear to Israel’s partners in the eastern Mediterranean that any (unlikely) improvement in Israel’s relations with Turkey will not come at their expense. Despite some recent positive signals, Erdogan’s basic orientation as an Islamist is bound to remain hostile.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Alliance, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

473. Risk Shocks and Divergence between the Euro Area and the US in the aftermath of the Great Recession

Author:
Thomas Brand and Fabien Tripier
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Highly synchronized during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the Euro area and the US have diverged in the period that followed. To explain this divergence, we provide a structural interpretation of these episodes through the estimation for both economies of a business cycle model with financial frictions and risk shocks, measured as the volatility of idiosyncratic uncertainty in the financial sector. Our results show that risk shocks have stimulated US growth in the aftermath of the Great Recession and have been the main driver of the double-dip recession in the Euro area. They play a positive role in the Euro area only after 2015. Risk shocks therefore seem well suited to account for the consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the subsequent positive effects of unconventional monetary policies, notably the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Global Recession, Finance, Europe Union, Economic Growth, and Risk
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Global Focus

474. The Unpredictable Course of Naval Innovation – The Guns of HMS Thunderer

Author:
Ben Lombardi
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In January 1879, a muzzle-loading gun aboard HMS Thunderer, one of the Royal Navy’s most powerful warships, exploded. A parliamentary investigation determined that the accident occurred because of human error brought about by a highly innovative, but complicated, loading mechanism. Given earlier unsatisfactory experience with early breech-loading guns, contemporary naval engagements and expectations of the future nature of conflict at sea, retention of muzzle-loaders seemed a reasonable course of action. Vast sums were, therefore, spent in ensuring that Britain’s navy had the biggest and most powerful of that type of ordnance. But the explosion and other advances in gun design meant that muzzle-loaders were a dead end, and the incident on Thunderer became the impetus for the Royal Navy to adopt breech-loaders. This incident shines light upon the thinking within the Royal Navy at the time regarding advanced guns. But it also underscores the uncertainty and unpredictability that is inevitably attached to rapid innovation by a large military institution such as the Royal Navy was in the late-19th century. This story is highly relevant to force development considerations today because in any era of continuous technological change, mistakes are inevitable and their expectation should be accommodated within planning.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

475. West African Elites’ Spending on UK Schools and Universities: A Closer Look

Author:
Matthew Page
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Political, business, and cultural elites from around the world have a strong affinity for the United Kingdom (UK) education system. Nowhere is this truer than in West Africa, where some families in Nigeria and Ghana have a long tradition of sending their children to private boarding schools and universities in the UK. These institutions are especially popular destinations for the offspring of prominent politically exposed persons (PEPs) from the region. Immigration officials, admissions staff, and UK law enforcement are not likely to scrutinize the conditions under which the children of PEPs enroll in British schools, even though the PEPs themselves may have modest legitimate earnings and opaque asset profiles that in other circumstances would raise serious financial concerns. This relative lack of review has allowed some West African PEPs to channel unexplained wealth into the UK education sector. It is not easy to estimate the overall value of this flow, yet it likely exceeds £30 million annually.1 Most of these funds emanate from Nigeria and, to a lesser extent, Ghana; compared with these two countries, only a handful of students from elsewhere in West Africa seek an education in British schools. Tackling this small but significant illicit financial flow should be a priority for UK policymakers. In doing so, they would be helping to realize the UK’s global anticorruption objectives, advance its International Education Strategy, and close a troublesome anti–money laundering (AML) loophole. Failing to do so would exacerbate existing corruption challenges both at home and abroad and increase the UK education sector’s reputational liabilities.
Topic:
Corruption, Education, Law Enforcement, Higher Education, and Elites
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and West Africa

476. Redesigning EU fiscal rules: From rules to standards

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Alvaro Leandro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The European Union’s fiscal rules have been suspended until at least the end of 2021. When they are reinstated, they will need to be modified, if only because of the high levels of debt. Proposals have been made—and more are to come—suggesting various changes and simplifications. Blanchard, Leandro, and Zettelmeyer take a step back and discuss how one should think about debt sustainability in the current and likely future EU economic environment. They argue that, given the complexity of the answer, it is an illusion to think that EU fiscal rules can be simple. But it is also an illusion to think that they can ever be complex enough to accommodate most relevant contingencies. Instead, the authors propose abandoning fiscal rules in favor of fiscal standards, i.e., qualitative prescriptions that leave room for judgment together with a process to decide whether the standards are met. Central to this process would be country-specific assessments using stochastic debt sustainability analysis, led by national independent fiscal councils and/or the European Commission. Disputes between member states and the European Commission on application of the standards should preferably be adjudicated by an independent institution, such as the European Court of Justice (or a specialized chamber), rather than by the Council of the European Union.
Topic:
European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe

477. Do gendered laws matter for women’s economic empowerment?

Author:
Marie Hyland, Simeon Djankov, and Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
reater legal equality between men and women is associated with a narrower gender gap in opportunities and outcomes, fewer female workers in positions of vulnerable employment, and greater political representation for women. While legal equality is on average associated with better outcomes for women, the experience of individual countries may differ significantly from this average trend, depending on the countries’ stage of development (as proxied by per capita GDP). Case studies from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, and Spain demonstrate this deviation. Especially in developing countries, legislative measures may not necessarily translate into actual empowerment, due mainly to deeply entrenched social norms, which render legal reforms ineffective. Women are more likely than men to be in vulnerable employment in low- and lower-middle-income economies but less likely than men to be in vulnerable employment in upper-middle- and high-income economies. Analysis of a 50-year panel of gendered laws in 190 countries reveals that country attributes that do not vary or change only slowly over time—such as a country’s legal origin, form of government, geographic characteristics, and dominant religion—explain a very large portion of the variation across countries. This finding suggests that the path to legal equality between men and women may be a long and arduous one. Nevertheless, the data also show that the past five decades have seen considerable progress toward legal gender equality. Gendered laws do evolve, suggesting a role for legal reforms in women’s economic empowerment.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Law, Women, Inequality, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, South Asia, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Spain

478. COVID-19 credit support programs in Europe’s five largest economies

Author:
Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
n 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programs through a host of initiatives, including efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper presents detailed information about these national credit support programs in the largest national economies of the European Union (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analysis focuses on (1) how countries positioned themselves on the many tradeoffs that emerged in designing and implementing the programs; and (2) what explains differences in usage across countries and its leveling off everywhere in the second half of 2020.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Finance, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

479. Firm Profits and Government Activity: An Empirical Investigation

Author:
Petar Jolakoski, Branimir Jovanovic, Joana Madjoska, Viktor Stojkoski, and Dragan Tevdovski
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
If firm profits rise to a level far above than what would have been earned in a competitive economy, this might give the firms market power, which might in turn influence the activity of the government. In this paper, we perform a detailed empirical study on the potential effects of firm profits and markups on government size and effectiveness. Using data on 30 European countries for a period of 17 years and an instrumental variables approach, we find that there exists a robust relationship between firm gains and the activity of the state, in the sense that higher firm profits reduce government size and effectiveness. Even in a group of developed countries, such as the European countries, firm power may affect state activity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and Profit
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

480. Interrelationships between Human Capital, Migration and Labour Markets in the Western Balkans: An Econometric Investigation

Author:
Michael Landesmann and Isilda Mara
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The South-North migration corridor, i.e. migration flows to the EU from Africa, the Middle East and EU neighbouring countries in the East, have overtaken the East-West migration corridor, i.e. migration flows from Central and East European countries to the EU15 and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is likely to dominate migration flows into the EU+EFTA over the coming decades. This paper applies a gravity modelling approach to analyse patterns and drivers of the South-North migration corridor over the period 1995-2020 and explores bilateral mobility patterns from 75 sending countries in Africa, the Middle East and other EU neighbours to the EU28 and EFTA countries. The study finds that income gaps, diverging demographic trends, institutional and governance features and persisting political instability, but also higher climate risks in the neighbouring regions of the EU, are fuelling migration flows along the South-North corridor and will most likely continue to do so.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, Human Capital, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

481. Talking about Europe: exploring 70 years of news archives

Author:
Enrico Bergamini and Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper quantitatively explores news coverage on the subject of ‘Europe’ in three different countries and three newspapers: France (Le Monde), Italy (La Stampa) and Germany (Der Spiegel). We collected and organised large web-scraped datasets covering the period 1945 to 2019. After ensuring the quality of the archives, we identified articles referring to ‘European’ news while leaving aside national and other non-European news, based on a mix of keyword matching, large-scale natural language processing and topic identification on the full text of news articles. Once articles were classified and datasets labelled, we performed a time-series analysis, detecting salient events in European history, across France, Germany and Italy. We analysed these events in light of the evolution of European cooperation and integration since 1945. We found that the most important events in post-war European history are easily identifiable in the archives and that European issues have gathered substantially greater attention since the early 1990s.
Topic:
Governance, Public Opinion, European Union, Media, Populism, and Data
Political Geography:
Europe

482. Interest in European matters: a glass three-quarters full?

Author:
Francesco Papadia, Enrico Bergamini, Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol, and Giuseppe Porcaro
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
A disconnect between European Union integration and the level of interest of EU citizens in European matters is a potential weakness in the EU’s democratic foundations. The existence and possible size of this disconnect is a critical issue in assessing the potential for further integration of the EU and the risks to its stability. To move beyond qualitative assessments of this disconnect, we use three indicators to measure EU citizens’ interest in Europe: turnout in European Parliament elections relative to national elections, Eurobarometer surveys of interest in Europe, and the presence of European news in national newspapers, relative to all published news. We interpret our empirical results using three frameworks: Putnam’s social capital concept, the agenda-setting hypothesis and the no-demos hypothesis. All three indicators point to an increased interest in European matters, especially since the 1990s and the creation of the euro. However, this result does not settle the issue of whether the increased level of interest matches the actual state of integration of the EU’s member countries. Our results indicate the European construction maintains a technocratic character.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Media, Populism, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

483. The unequal inequality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:
Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
GDP contractions are typically associated with within-country income inequality increases. While official income inequality data for 2020 will not be available for about two years, the already available employment data for 2020 shows that the difference between highly-educated and low-educated people in terms of job losses is correlated with the economic shock from the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the depth of the economic recession is related to the increase in within-country income inequality in 2020. Scenarios based on historical patterns of recessions and within-country income inequality increases suggest relatively small increases in global income inequality in 2020. Factors mitigating global inequality increases in 2020 include larger GDP per-capita declines in richer advanced countries than in poorer emerging and developing countries, and the positive GDP growth of China, which suggests that within-country inequality in the world’s most populous country might have not changed much in 2020. In contrast, it is quite likely there was a significant increase in European Union income inequality in 2020, partly reversing the decline during the previous decades.
Topic:
Poverty, European Union, Employment, Inequality, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

484. European Union cohesion project characteristics and regional economic growth

Author:
Zsolt Darvas, Jan Mazza, and Catarina Midoes
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Due to problems with existing methodologies that aim to identify the causal impact of European Union cohesion policy on economic growth, we adopted a novel methodology. We first estimated ‘unexplained economic growth’ by controlling for the influence of various region-specific factors, and then analysed its relationship with about two dozen characteristics specific to projects carried out in various regions in the context of EU cohesion policy. We found that the best-performing regions have on average projects with longer durations, more inter-regional focus, lower national co-financing, more national (as opposed to regional and local) management, higher proportions of private or non-profit participants among the beneficiaries (as opposed to public-sector beneficiaries) and higher levels of funding from the Cohesion Fund. No clear patterns emerged concerning the sector of intervention.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Economic Growth, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

485. NATO 2030- The Military Dimension

Author:
Heinrich Brauss and Christian Mölling
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO must “stay strong militarily, be more united politically, and take a broader approach 1 globally”. When launching the reflection pro- cess on NATO’s future role, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg set these three priorities to frame his vision of NATO 2030. At their meeting in London in December 2019, NA- TO’s political leaders mandated a “forward-looking re- flection process” on how NATO should further adapt to ensure it was able to successfully cope with a world of competing great powers due to the rise of China and Russia’s persistently aggressive posture, together with instability along NATO’s southern periphery, new trans- national risks emerging from pandemics, climate change and disruptive technologies. Establishing a unified stra- tegic vision is vital for upholding the Alliance’s cohesion, credibility and effectiveness. Looking forward, what does this mean for NATO’s military dimension?
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

486. Proportionality and Karlsruhe’s Ultra Vires Verdict: Ways Out of Constitutional Pluralism?

Author:
Martin Hopner
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
In May 2020, for the first time in its history, the Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) of Germany declared Union acts as being ultra vires. According to the FCC, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) had acted beyond their mandates because they did not apply strong proportionality standards to the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP). The resulting stalemate within constitutional pluralism has revived the discussion about the possible introduction of an Appeal Court with the “final say” over constitutional conflict. As the analysis of the PSPP conflict shows, such a judicial authority would reach its limits the more we move from the surface to the core of the struggles between European and national constitutional law. The different readings of proportionality are difficult to bridge, and the mutually exclusive claims about the nature of the supremacy of European law are not accessible to compromise at all. We should therefore not expect too much from an Appeal Court, if it were introduced.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Law, European Union, Economic Cooperation, European Monetary Union, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe

487. The Constrained Politics of Local Public Investments under Cooperative Federalism.

Author:
Bjorn Bremer, Donato Di Carlo, and Leon Wansleben
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Public investment spending declined steadily in advanced economies during the last three decades. Germany is a case in point where the aggregate decline coincided with growing inequality in investments across districts. What explains variation in local investment spending? We assembled a novel dataset to investigate the effects of structural constraints and partisanship on German districts’ investment spending from 1995 to 2018. We find that the lack of fiscal and administrative capacity significantly influences local investment patterns. Yet, within these constraints, partisanship matters. Conservative politicians tend to prioritize public investment more than the left. This is especially the case when revenues from local taxes are low. As the fiscal conditions improve, left-wing politicians increase investment more strongly and hence the difference between the left and the right disappears. Our findings are indicative of how regional economic divergence can emerge even within cooperative federalist systems and show that, despite rigid fiscal rules, partisanship matters when parties face trade-offs over discretionary spending.
Topic:
Investment, Local, Federalism, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

488. Preparatory Study for the Evaluation of Denmark's Development Cooperation on Climate Change Adaptation: Overviews and analysis of Danish support to adaptation from 2008-2018

Author:
Lily Salloum Lindegaard, Mikkel Funder, and Esbern Friis-Hanse
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Evaluation of Danish Support to Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries has just come out. But what knowledge does it build on and what fundamental questions does it explore? This Preparatory Study, commissioned by the EVAL Department of Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2019, lays the groundwork for the evaluation. It sought to help define the scope of the evaluation; identify potential country case studies, case projects and evaluation themes; and point out overarching issues and questions to be addressed in the evaluation. To do so, the study provides overviews of all Danish climate change adaptation-related Official Development Assistance (ODA) from 2008 to 2018 and of adaptation support through the Danish Climate Envelope, which provides Fast Start Finance for climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. The study also includes an analysis of trends and gaps in the Climate Envelope. These, and other outputs from the study, are now available in this DIIS Working Paper. The paper’s analysis and findings continue to have relevance for discussions of how we approach climate change, particularly adaptation, in Danish development assistance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

489. Opportunities for Danish stabilisation policy to engage with climate- and livelihood-related conflict: New approaches to fragility in the Horn of Africa and Sahel

Author:
Peer Schouten
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Horn of Africa and the Sahel are among the most fragile regions in the world: poor, lacking basic infrastructure and state presence across much of their respective territories, and both form hotbeds of conflict and political instability compounded by climate change. This DIIS Working Paper focuses on identifying evolving notions of fragility that could strengthen Danish stabilisation efforts in the Horn and Sahel. It foregrounds notions of fragility that move away from a focus on strong state institutions towards the adaptive capacities of populations in the hinterlands of the Horn and the Sahel to deal with conflict and climate variability. The paper gives an overview of this rapidly evolving field and distils key insights, challenges and future options by exploring the question, how can we support people in the Sahel and Horn to re-establish their responsibility for their respective territories and the management of their natural resources? The paper addresses this question by exploring the implications of recent climate change and livelihoods research on how we approach fragility and, by extension, stabilisation. On the basis of such research, the Working Paper advocates a move away from a sector-based understanding of fragility towards a way of working that is more in line with contextual realities, alongside the ‘comprehensive approach’ to stabilisation that Denmark promotes. The key message is that, programmatically, Danish stabilisation efforts across both regions could benefit from a more explicit focus on supporting the variability that dominant livelihood strategies require and that need to be considered if sustainable security and development outcomes are to be achieved. Failing to do this will only serve to marginalise key communities and may drive them further into the arms of radical groups.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Environment, Radicalization, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Denmark, and Horn of Africa

490. The Women, Peace and Security Agenda in EU Border Management

Author:
Lawreen Gyan-Addo, Madita Standke-Erdmann, and Saskia Stachowitsch
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The year 2020 commemorated the 20th anniversary of the adoption of the United Nations Security Council’s landmark Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325) on Women, Peace and Security (WPS). Despite the notable advances achieved at a legislative and regulatory EU level, the implementation and integration processes still fail to ensure an effective protection of women’s rights. One important gap in this regard concerns borders and migration which are not fully recognised as WPS-related issues nor are they integrated into the appropriate policy frameworks. Against this background, this paper calls for a greater acknowledgement of the increased danger faced by women arriving at European borders including, but not limited to, sexual and gender based violence (SGBV), and for appropriate levels of protection.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Migration, United Nations, European Union, Refugees, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe

491. What threatens NATO – and what members can do? The case of Norway and Poland

Author:
Jakub M. Godzimirski
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This research paper examines the critical external and internal challenges that faced NATO at its 70th anniversary, and how the policies of two members – Norway and Poland – can influence the internal cohesion of the Alliance and thus its ability to provide security to all its members. The survival of NATO as a viable security actor will depend on its capacity to maintain internal cohesion, a crucial factor influencing its ability to address external risks, challenges and threats in the increasingly turbulent international environment. This study places the debate in the broader context of discussion on alliance survivability in general, maps the external and internal challenges facing the Alliance after seven decades of its existence, and examines possible risks that the policies of Norway and Poland may pose to NATO’s internal cohesion and thus its ability to react to external challenges.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Norway, and Poland

492. Resilience in the age of crises

Author:
Mathilde Tomine Eriskdatter Giske
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This research paper examines the concept 'resilience' as a response to the constantly changing environments and turbulence of the world. While resilience is used by several international organisations and nation states, there is still a lack of consensus regarding what the concept really means – it denotes both resisting change and being willing to adapt at the same time. This paper offers some clarity and argues that a temporal dimension is needed when applying the concept of resilience.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Organization, European Union, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

493. Cooperation in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism, civil society and governmental exit programs support individuals (and their families) who wish to disengage from violent extremist groups and distance themselves from extremist ideologies. Exit work and successful reintegration into society involves security agencies as well es very practical elements provided by municipal actors, public services, and civil society organizations. Effective cooperation between civil society and governmental actors including statutory bodies is crucial but can be challenging.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Government, Violent Extremism, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, Belgium, and Netherlands

494. Productivity and the Pandemic: ShortTerm Disruptions and Long-Term Implications

Author:
Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban, and Bart van Ark
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of withinindustry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed belowaverage ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. The paper also experiments with US data on employment at county level by allocating within-industry productivity contributions for 2020 to urban, sub-urban and rural areas, showing that the contributions to within-industry productivity growth from manufacturing and other production industries in urban and sub-urban areas increased during the pandemic. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Pandemic, COVID-19, Productivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and United States of America

495. Resilience through Placemaking: Public Spaces in Rotterdam’s Climate Adaptation Approach

Author:
Katherine Peinhardt
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Public spaces are an often-overlooked opportunity for urban climate adaptation. It is increasingly clear that the unique role of public spaces in civic life positions them to enhance not only physical resilience, but also to enhance the type of social cohesion that helps communities bounce back.
Topic:
Climate Change, Social Cohesion, Resilience, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

496. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zerosum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Affairs, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

497. Europe’s Quest for Digital Sovereignty: GAIA-X as a Case Study

Author:
Simona Autolitano and Agnieszka Pawlowska
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
There is currently much discussion about “digital sovereignty” in Europe. While the term encompasses very diverse connotations, it refers to a broad concept involving data, technological, regulatory and political elements. Cloud computing represents one example of the concrete materialisation of the European Union’s quest for “digital sovereignty” – especially through the development of its GAIA-X project. It is too early to assess whether or not GAIA-X will definitively help the Union to achieve this much-desired goal; however, some challenges have already emerged along the way. Looking to the future, if the EU wants to achieve “digital sovereignty”, a different strategy to the one currently under discussion will be needed.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, European Union, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

498. Europe’s Missile Defence and Italy: Capabilities and Cooperation

Author:
Alessandro Marrone and Karolina Muti
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe’s missile defence is structurally linked to NATO deterrence and defence architecture, and it has to face both a worsened international security environment and an accelerating, worldwide technological innovation. Russia and China are heavily investing in new hypersonic systems which dramatically decrease the time needed to reach the target by flying mostly within the atmosphere. The US remains a global leader in the development and deployment of missile defence capabilities, including the Aegis systems which represent the cornerstone of NATO integrate air and missile defence covering the Old Continent. European countries are increasingly collaborating within the EU framework on the related capability development, primarily via the TWISTER project under the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PeSCo). Being exposed to missile threats from Middle East and North Africa and participating to allied nuclear sharing, Italy has a primary interest in upgrading its military capabilities through PeSCo, maintaining them fully integrated within NATO, and involving the national defence industry in cutting-edge procurement programmes.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, France, Poland, Germany, Italy, North America, and United States of America

499. Technological Competition: Can the EU Compete with China?

Author:
Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The debate on technological development and the unfolding fourth technological revolution tends to neglect the role of the EU, relegating it to follower status. The leadership positions are occupied by the US and China, who compete with one another for technological supremacy. Yet, despite lagging behind in some areas, the EU is better placed than is often assumed and still stands a chance of guaranteeing the delivery of a technological revolution that is not only environmentally but also socially sustainable. This is critical in proposing a model of technological development alternative to that of China, in particular, and especially in such sectors as artificial intelligence, supercomputing and digital skills.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

500. Clean Molecules across the Mediterranean: The Potential for North African Hydrogen Imports into Italy and the EU

Author:
Luca Franza
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Hydrogen is the most promising vector for harnessing North Africa’s largely untapped renewable energy potential. Low-carbon hydrogen produced in North Africa can play an important role in enabling the European Union and Italy to reach their increasingly ambitious decarbonisation targets as a complement to electrification and locally produced renewables. It is estimated that the EU could achieve cost savings by producing at least part of its future renewable energy needs in neighbouring high-yield regions. Italy is set to play a particularly important function as both a gateway and a catalyst for North African hydrogen exports. In turn, North Africa stands to benefit from hydrogen both as a source of revenues and as an instrument of diversification, industrialisation and local economic development. This would in turn improve social resilience, increase political stability, reduce the risk of radicalisation and limit migration flows. Italy has a particularly strong strategic interest in all of these areas, given its geographic location in the Central Mediterranean and marked exposure to social, political and security developments in North Africa. North African hydrogen could also create profitable business opportunities for several Italian companies. In sum, hydrogen can contribute to fighting climate change while preserving positive trade interdependence across the Mediterranean. Strong coordination between the private sector and policy-makers is going to be key to abate costs along the hydrogen value chain and launch successful international hydrogen trade schemes.
Topic:
Energy Policy, European Union, Trade, Imports, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, Italy, and Mediterranean