Number of results to display per page
Search Results
302. Eighth sanctions package: Which side will be the economic loser?
- Author:
- Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Since February 24, 2022, Russia's invasion policy towards Ukraine has been tried to be prevented by several series of sanctions by the European Union. These sanctions include trade, travel, asset freezes, oil, transport, and SWIFT bans. Since the start of the war, 7 sanctions packages have been presented and many of them are being implemented. In response to Russia's invasion policy against Ukraine, the European Commission presented the eighth package of sanctions covering visa issues and asset freezes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
303. Potential Expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC): New Realities and Opportunities
- Author:
- Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The article clarifies the directions in which the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) can be expanded and gas can be transported to how many countries. For the expansion of the SGC, countries such as Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania are studied in this paper. The issue of reducing Europe's 40% dependence on Russian gas and Europe's search for alternative energy sources and the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor, one of the largest gas export projects to Europe, are on the agenda. In addition, the threat of several European countries - Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, and Denmark - refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles, and as a result, the supply of gas is cut off.
- Topic:
- Gas, Exports, and Energy Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Czech Republic
304. The Implications of the Third Trilateral Meeting in Brussels
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In a way towards a productive peace-building process, discussing the situation in South Caucasus and deepening economic cooperation between the EU and both countries, on May 23 President of the European Council Charles Michel hosted the President of Azerbaijan: Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan. Following the 6 April meeting, which is called by the President Ilham Aliyev as a starting point in the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the content of the recent meeting is once more characterized by its promising and necessary provisions that will serve the interests of Azerbaijan and development of the region more broadly.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Brussels
305. Azerbaijani Gas Export to Europe: What Advantages Are There?
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Following Russia's decision to restrict natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, energy security has become a priority in the European Union. Although the ancient continent is trying to increase gas imports from alternative sources, Gazprom is still trying to maintain its dominance in Europe for some time. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to increase natural gas production. In the first quarter of this year, Azerbaijan produced 11.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from ACG, 6.4 billion cubic meters from Shah Deniz, and 1.9 billion cubic meters from SOCAR. During that period, gas exports amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters. 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were exported to Turkey, 2.6 billion cubic meters to Europe, and 1.1 billion cubic meters to Georgia. More than 4 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkey via TANAP during this period.
- Topic:
- European Union, Gas, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria
306. How Will Coal Sanctions Impact on Russian Economy?
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The Western Alliance has approved a new package of sanctions against Russia. The most notable of the sanctions is the suspension of coal exports from Russia. What does this mean for Russia, and how can the European Union compensate for this ban? Yesterday, the European Commission posted a decision on sanctions on its website, which means that the ban will come into force. This means that from today, European companies will not be able to conclude contracts to buy coal from Russia. The contracts signed in the previous period must be completed by August.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Exports, Coal, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
307. Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas: Challenges and New Alternatives
- Author:
- Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The Russia-Ukraine war has revealed energy reliance between the European Union and Russia as an issue. In addition to the dependence of the European Union (EU) on Russia, particularly in the sphere of energy, it did not alleviate but rather aggravated, Europe's and Russia's security worries about each other. All happenings raise this question: Can the European Union eliminate its dependence on Russian gas? Is it possible? If possible, for how long can this dependence be eliminated?
- Topic:
- European Union, Gas, Energy Dependence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
308. Blowback from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Leah Zamore, and James Traub
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- While the Ukrainian army and people continue to resist, the costs of Russia's invasion in human terms are mounting. As of March 15, the United Nations (UN) had verified 1,900 civilian casualties, including 726 deaths (fifty of them children), as Russia intensifies its assault on civilian targets, seizes the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site, lays siege to Mariupol which is without food, energy, or water in freezing temperatures, continues to threaten Kyiv, begins a push on Odesa and assaults Kharkiv with heavy and indiscriminate shelling.
- Topic:
- Security, War Crimes, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
309. Recent UN Votes on Ukraine: What Needs to be Done to Maintain International Unity (Part I)
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Faiza Shaheen, Leah Zamore, Karina Gerlach, and Nendirmwa Noel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Horrific images of the loss of life and humanitarian suffering in Ukraine continue to come to light, including significant evidence of large-scale human rights abuses. As the war in Ukraine looks likely to enter a period of rearming, redeployment and renewed attacks in the East, maintaining international pressure for a negotiated peace agreement that maintains territorial integrity and upholds international law will be crucial.
- Topic:
- International Law, Multilateralism, Humanitarian Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
310. The importance of cybersecurity for Bosnia and Herzegovina Policy recommendations to support BiH’s cyber capabilities and international aspirations
- Author:
- Nicolo Miotto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Centre for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Cybersecurity is a fundamental domain for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as it impacts the country‘s national security, its economic growth and its international commitments and goals. Despite the importance of cyberspace for the country, BiH lacks a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity, having instead a jeopardised approach which hinders its cybersecurity efforts. The country‘s cybersecurity capabilities are underdeveloped, exposing governmental bodies, private companies and citizens to potential cyber threats and risks. Limited cybersecurity capabilities can undermine BiH‘s efforts to access the EU and NATO as these international organisations require states to respect and adopt specific cybersecurity standards and legislation. Hence, BiH needs to improve its cybersecurity architecture to achieve its international goals. In addition, the country must enhance its cybersecurity to accomplish international obligations deriving from the country‘s membership of international organisations and its ratification of the Budapest Convention. Although the country presents embryonic cybersecurity capabilities, BiH public institutions are improving their cybersecurity awareness by providing public employees with workshops, seminars, and training courses on cybersecurity. As of this, international and domestic cooperation represents a pivotal opportunity for BiH to build and enhance its cyber capabilities; intergovernmental organisations, research centres and partner counties are providing BiH public institutions with funds and training opportunities in the field of cybersecurity.
- Topic:
- NATO, Crime, European Union, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
311. Policing in Bosnia and Herzegovina During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2021)
- Author:
- Stiven Tremaria
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Centre for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an account of the developments of policing in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2021 to shed light on elements of continuity and changes from previous trends observable since the 2010s. It is contended that the COVID-19 has made manifest the extent to which the factual management capacity of the Bosnian state administration and the police forces has consolidated in the entities and cantons. By contrast, central state police agencies suffer from chronic stagnation, institutional dysfunctionality, and a lack of factual management capacity to face unexpected challenges and emergencies. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has fostered certain conditions for advancing the rollback of the democratically oriented police reform observable at the entity and cantonal levels since the last decade, which manifests through politicisation, militarisation and slight informalisation of policing. In particular, such police counter-reform has been more acute in the Republika Srpska under the SNSD rule, in contrast to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose police forces are affected by severe degrees of institutional fragmentation, dysfunctional working and clientelism.
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
312. Book Talk. "Orbánland" by Lasse Skytt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- From Europe to America, political landscapes have shifted in recent years in a way summed up in microcosm no better than by the trajectory of one small country, Hungary—whose leader, Viktor Orbán, has gained outsized international notoriety as the bad boy of the European Union for his steadfast alternative to the liberal democracy that has dominated the Western world since 1989. Orbánland is the fascinating story of a Danish journalist who moves to Hungary to gain an insight into the political complexities of this divisive European country. Along the way, he encounters people from all walks of life, and he learns as much about the Hungarians as about himself. In a narrative as absorbing and as it is vital for the lessons it carries as America prepares for its 2020 presidential elections, he asks: Can we get along with those on the other side of the fence? Is it worth even trying? His answers are surprising. By guiding us through a polarized landscape of differing opinions, Lasse Skytt delivers a broader perspective on Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, one that suggests possibilities for the future of Europe and America. His journey will leave us questioning our own truths, and, ultimately, which side we are on.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, Liberal Order, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
313. Things Washed Ashore
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- One could not physically leave totalitarian autarchic Albania, but one could always escape it. Ardian Vehbiu, who has extensively written on totalitarian language and semiotics, will talk about the out-sized effects of found western objects, casual merchandise, media and images in the Albanian popular imagination. Looking at this “flotsam” that washed ashore, we will explore the relationship between these objects and images and how they shaped the imagination and experiences of Europe and of ourselves. How did these objects, images and messages reach an otherwise impervious Albania? How did they circulate once in Albania and what life and meanings did they take on? Did this relationship with the “beyond”, cherished and suffered by the citizens-inmates of a country otherwise closed to the world, lead to an inadvertent “colonization” of minds by these ethereal images built by and for Western media? Or, did these highly censored or scarcely available objects and images allow Albanians to clandestinely escape across the porous borders of the imagination?
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Media, Totalitarianism, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Albania
314. Radioactive Consequences of a War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Rico Chandra
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- A war in Ukraine could lead to thousands of radioactive sources getting lost, or worse, getting stolen and repurposed for political destabilization. So what is a radioactive “source”? It is a material that is specifically manufactured for the purpose of emitting radiation. For example, some forms of cancer are treated using radiotherapy whereby intense gamma radiation, emitted from a pencil-sized lump of radioactive metal, is directed at the tumor. This lump of highly radioactive metal is a radioactive “source”.
- Topic:
- Health, Military Strategy, Radiological Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
315. Present Danger: Nuclear Power Plants in War
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- After Russia’s unprecedented seizure of Ukraine’s nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhya, the United States needs to adjust its military planning and policies to cope with hostile military forces’ targeting, seizure, and garrisoning of armed forces at large operating nuclear plants and clarify its policies regarding possible US targeting of such plants. This article is the first to analyze these concerns. It compares Russia’s assaults with previous strikes against research reactors and nonoperating nuclear plants in the Middle East and clarifies what new military measures and policies will be needed to cope with military operations against large, operating nuclear plants. US Army and Pentagon officials, as well as military and civilian staff, will discover ways to mitigate and reduce future military harm to civilians in war zones and understand the operational implications of military assaults on and seizures of civilian nuclear facilities.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
316. Arresting Nuclear Adventurism: China, Article VI, and the NPT
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski and Andrea Beck
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- Given the current crisis in Ukraine, it’s tempting to consider focusing on Chinese compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to be an academic indulgence. Giving into this inclination, however, would be a mistake. As dangerous as Russia currently is, China will be more threatening in the long run. As we are learning with Russia’s violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, enforcing binding understandings is critical lest violators run roughshod over law and good order. This is true with Russia’s behavior in Ukraine. It is no less so with China’s nuclear weapons buildup and its repeated refusal to join in good faith negotiations to limit its nuclear weapons activities, which is required by Article VI of the NPT. This buildup and refusal clearly flies in the face of China’s legal NPT obligations. The question is what might bring Beijing back into compliance. To get the answers, NPEC held a battery of workshops last fall, followed by a week-long diplomatic simulation. The game participants included U.S., Japanese, and Australian former and current officials and staff as well as outside experts. The group concluded that Beijing is unlikely to comply willingly with the NPT anytime soon, but that U.S. and international security would still be best served by spotlighting Beijing’s nuclear adventurism and suggesting diplomatic off-ramps to arrest its nuclear buildup.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Peace, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
317. The European Banks’ Role in the Financial Crisis of 2007-8: A Critical Assessment
- Author:
- Photis Lysandrou
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, opinion has been divided over whether its root cause was credit arbitrage or safe asset demand. New research on the European banks' role in the crisis may finally help to resolve the issue. Far from being peripheral players in the crisis, European banks were deeply implicated in its causal origins as evidenced by their activities in the two US debt markets that were at the heart of the crisis: those for collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and for asset backed commercial paper (ABCP). These activities would seem to lend weight to the credit arbitrage story, a conclusion that has been reached by several authors. However, it is a conclusion only made possible by ignoring the connection between the federal funds rate and the rate of ABCP demand from the institutional money market mutual funds (MMMFs) in the pre-crisis era. This paper argues that when this connection is closely examined, it turns out that the evidence surrounding the European banks' role in the financial crisis gives greater weight to the safe asset demand explanation of the crisis.
- Topic:
- Markets, Financial Crisis, Banks, Debt Securities, Assets, and Federal Funds Rate
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
318. Turkey’s struggling economy, regional isolation, behind latest charm offensive with Israel and other countries
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A clear Turkish rationale for better relations with Israel is to weaken the strategic partnership between Jerusalem, Greece, and Cyprus and get access to Israel’s natural gas.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
319. The EU is Reluctantly Getting Tougher with Putin
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Europeans surely remember what happens when you let an autocrat get away with grabbing territories hoping that the last bite will be the last one
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, European Union, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
320. Understanding the Russia-Iran-Israel Triangle
- Author:
- Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel
321. Turkey-Armenia Normalization: A Quest for Realism
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Ironically, the American recognition of the Armenian genocide removed an obstacle for Armenia and Turkey to move forward.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Human Rights, International Community, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Armenia
322. Could Biden construct a new world order through détente with Russia?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Such a scenario would give the US a leg up against China’s totalitarianism and expansionist aims, and bridge the age-old schism with Russia
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
323. The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-Term Outcome
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is far too early to predict the ultimate outcome of the Ukraine War, but it is all too clear that no peace settlement or ceasefire is likely to eliminate a long period of military tension between the U.S. – including NATO and its allies – and anything approaching President Putin’s future version of Russia, nor will any resolution of the current conflict negate the risk of new forms of war. It is equally clear that the U.S. and NATO need to act as quickly as possible to prepare for an intense period of military competition and must create a more secure deterrent and improve their capability to defend against Russia. In practice, NATO will need to make up for years of underfunding by each member country and for the cuts in force levels, readiness, and modernization that years of a U.S.-driven focus on burden-sharing – rather than funding NATO’s real military priorities – did little or nothing to address. NATO will need to find new ways to counter the massive problems in interoperability and differences in comparative warfighting that still exist between NATO’s 30 nations. This will need to be accomplished at a time when emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are constantly changing the nature of deterrence and warfighting, when Russia is actively pursuing nuclear modernization rather than arms control, and when NATO’s more advanced forces are struggling to create new approaches to joint all-domain command and control (JADC2) – and all while doing so at a time when most member countries have limited capabilities to support their existing force structure. At best, developing and sustaining any coherent effort to deal with these issues will take at least five years to implement. It then will require constant updating on an annual basis as new types of technology, tactics, and command and control continue to reshape military needs and force plans. This, in turn, requires sustained political and popular support in the face of inflation and civil needs during a time when the momentum for military change created by the current fighting in Ukraine may have faded. In some ways, the only thing harder than crisis management is the lack of crisis management.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
324. The Digital Silk Road and China’s Influence on Standard Setting
- Author:
- Alex He
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- China is striving to become a leader in international standard setting, and the Digital Silk Road, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative to expand its global infrastructure and markets, is key to realizing this goal. Both roads depend on standard connectivity, fuelled by Chinese private companies that are the driving force behind China’s growing role as a leader in technology development and shaping standards in both domestic and global markets. However, China faces strong competition to gain more influence in international standard-setting bodies, which are dominated by the European Union and the United States.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Digital Economy, Trade, Digital Culture, Silk Road, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
325. From Kosovo to Ukraine: lessons from the humanitarian response to conflict and displacement in Europe
- Author:
- Margie Buchanan-Smith and Peter Wiles
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- While there are many differences between the conflicts in Kosovo and Ukraine, the international humanitarian response to both bears many similarities. For example, both crises triggered record levels of funding and most international humanitarian agencies on the receiving end had limited or no presence and experience in the countries affected. Protection is the dominant need amongst affected communities in both crises as well. This paper – written by Margie Buchanan-Smith and Peter Wiles – highlights key lessons from the international humanitarian response to the Kosovo crisis that could have relevance to the response in Ukraine. The lessons are drawn from the three-volume ‘Independent Evaluation of Expenditure of DEC Kosovo Appeal Funds’ and ALNAP’s meta-evaluation of the Kosovo response, from our 2001 Annual Review.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
326. Iranian Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine and Nuclear Options
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Ebrahim Mohseni, and Clay Ramsay
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- The current survey is an Update, rather than a comprehensive check on Iranian public attitudes. This interim report covers findings on two unfolding security challenges – Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Ukraine – and their potential interconnections.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Public Opinion, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Ukraine, and Middle East
327. So close and yet so far: the ability of mandatory disclosure rules to crack down on offshore tax evasion
- Author:
- Elisa Casi, Mohammed Mardan, and Rohit Reddy Muddasani
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We study the short-term effect of the introduction of the mandatory disclosure programme for aggressive tax arrangements by focusing on the one introduced in May 2018 under Council Directive 2018/288/EU (or DAC6). Employing bilateral data on cross-border deposits, we study the effect of this new disclosure requirement on cross-border tax evasion. Our results show a reduction of cross-border deposits in EU countries with strong enforcement, captured by large monetary penalties for misreporting. At the same time, we document a relocation of income and wealth to countries with limited intermediary reporting obligations. Finally, we detect a shortterm increase of US$14 billion in cross-border deposits held in countries offering citizenship/residence by investment programmes, suggesting the use of these schemes as regulatory arbitrage to circumvent the disclosure mandated under DAC6. We provide timely and relevant evidence contributing to the debate on international administrative cooperation to reduce cross-border tax evasion.
- Topic:
- European Union, Finance, Banking, Tax Evasion, and Administrative Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
328. Will economic statecraft threaten western currency dominance? Sanctions, geopolitics, and the global monetary order
- Author:
- Carla Norrlof
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The return of great power rivalry is stoking renewed fears of weakening Western currency dominance. Financial sanctions are becoming the preferred economic tool for accomplishing geopolitical goals. These instruments are especially popular with the United States and Europe. In response, rival great powers, notably China and Russia, are diversifying away from Western currencies and developing counterstrategies to maintain economic and foreign policy autonomy. As other countries are hit by increasingly punishing Western sanctions, the incentive to join Russia and China’s alternative international monetary order increases. New analysis, published in this report, shows early signs that some countries may be trying to diversify away from the dollar. A growing circle of countries attempting to evade the Western-centric financial and currency order may over time erode the dollar and the euro’s sizeable lead, though will likely fall well short of ending their global dominance. This report analyzes these trends and quantifies the extent of reserve diversification following Russia’s 2022 war on Ukraine. It also assesses the polarity of the international currency order since the onset of the euro in 2002. Reserve diversification out of the dollar, and into the euro, has been modest, though Chinese renminbi reserves grew after Russia’s February offensive in Ukraine. Dollar unipolarity declined acutely in 2017 as the number of countries sanctioned by the United States increased and the US President Donald J. Trump threatened to revoke alliance commitments. Using economic statecraft while retaining global economic influence will require the United States to keep its economic house in order and allies close, if the current unipolar currency order is to survive.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
329. Privacy in cross-border digital currency: A transatlantic approach
- Author:
- Giulia Fanti and Nadia Pocher
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As a growing number of countries explore Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) for the domestic context, multi-country cross-border CBDCs pilots are also proliferating. Cross-border CBDCs could make cross-border payments faster, cheaper, and simpler. However, for any cross-border CBDC to unlock these benefits and be widely adopted, it must address key concerns, chief among them risks around privacy and transparency of data. This article illustrates how various technical design choices can affect the privacy and transparency of cross-border CBDCs. For instance, architectural choices about the structure of a cross-border CBDC and representational choices about how transactions are encoded in the underlying software can have far-reaching implications for privacy and transparency—both in a domestic context and for cross-border transactions. Many of the cross-border CBDC pilot studies to date have (understandably) adopted the technical designs provided by enterprise distributed ledger platforms. However, some of these designs make tradeoffs regarding privacy, efficiency, and/or security. Whether these tradeoffs are acceptable is a matter of policy, and requires coordination between different regulators and central banks. In view of these implications—and some of the corresponding tensions that arise—we argue that the US and the EU should work together alongside other partners to create the technological and regulatory environment to enable privacy-preserving cross-border CBDCs. The US and the EU should seize the emergence of CBDCs as an opportunity to finally establish a transatlantic privacy framework, and clarify its interplay with the prevention of money laundering and financing of terrorism (AML/CFT/CPF). More broadly, both should harness the clout of their combined financial systems to develop digital asset regulation and standards with a global reach and democratic values. These regulatory developments would not only streamline regulatory guidelines, but they could also directly impact and ease the technical development of a cross-border CBDC.
- Topic:
- Privacy, Currency, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Currency
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America
330. Europol-Israel Police Operational Agreement: Enhanced cooperation with EU in combatting crime and terrorism
- Author:
- Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The Israeli Police and Europol, the European Union’s police agency, have been conducting negotiations over an operational agreement for several years. In September there was signing of end of negotiations, but in December the Council of the European Union decided to re-open the talks. In a global world where crime and terrorism cross borders, countries need to strengthen cooperation among themselves. Such inter-police cooperation takes on a unique form in the EU. The operational agreement between Israel’s Police and Europol can have considerable importance in contributing to the parties’ ability to deal with terror and crime. This paper will review Europol, its cooperation with Israel’s police and other enforcement agencies, including the negotiated agreement, the motivations for upgrading relations with Israel and the benefits and challenges of doing so.
- Topic:
- Crime, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Police, and Europol
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
331. Leadership in European Digital Policy: Future Role and Direction for the D9+ Group
- Author:
- Fredrik Philipp, Philipp Lamprecht, Erik van der Marel, Vanika Sharma, and Elena Sisto
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we will discuss how Europe makes digital policy and how its digital economic performance can be improved. The focus is on the D9+ initiative. Launched in 2016 on the initiative of former Swedish trade minister, Ann Linde, nine countries with a particular interest in matters of the digital economy met to learn from each other and seek common ground on policy issues. On occasions, the D9+ Group has issued joint statements relating to regulatory initiatives in the EU. Since its founding, the group has expanded, and now also includes “guest countries”, but it remains fundamentally an initiative of small and mid-sized open-oriented economies with a strong interest to exploit the economic power of digitalisation and new emerging technologies. The D9+ initiative is important and this paper argues that its work should expand and focus on expanding the scale and scope of digital technological change in the European economy while addressing risks that an over-powering regulatory approach to digital policies in Europe reduces the benefits of the digital transformation. Importantly, the D9+ Group has a special interest to promote digital openness and avoid the agenda for technology sovereignty and strategic autonomy sliding into digital protectionism. Finding the right direction of policy is of fundamental importance for Europe’s long-run economic growth, and the D9+ Group should take a leadership role.
- Topic:
- Digital Economy, Leadership, Economic Growth, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
332. A Compass to Guide EU Policy in Support of Business Competitiveness
- Author:
- Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Vanika Sharma, Elena Sisto, and Erik van der Marel
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The EU agenda for improving competitiveness is missing in action. Economic competitiveness has been a central plank in the development of the European Union – a relentless quest for policies that lead to more prosperity and that make European companies in world markets more successful. However, since the end of the Lisbon Agenda in 2010, economic competitiveness seems to have fallen off the EU map. This Agenda had its flaws, but it rightly sought to make Europe “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-economy in the world”. The impression now is that Europe is on the retreat and the current European Commission is the first without a strategy to strengthen competitiveness at the EU level since the early 1990s. Hopefully, a course correction may now be on its way. Ursula von der Leyen has promised a “competitiveness check” on new EU policy. With the strong economic headwinds facing Europe and the world, the EU needs to pursue structural economic reforms that raise productivity and growth.
- Topic:
- European Union, Business, Regional Economy, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
333. The Business Case for the Sustainable Development Goals: An Empirical Analysis of 21 Danish Companies' Engagement with the SDGs
- Author:
- Michael W. Hansen, Henrik Gundelach, and Erik Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
- Abstract:
- This paper explores why business engage with the SDG agenda, with a view to understanding the business case for the SDGs. Building on and extending the responsibility literature’s discussion of the business case for responsibility, the paper develops a conceptual framework for analyzing why business engage with the SDGs. This framework is employed to analyze why a sample of 21 Danish companies decided to engage with the SDG agenda. The analysis finds that most companies view the SDGs as a platform for achieving rather conventional business goals such as mitigating risk, saving costs, and differentiating products and services. However, in a few cases, companies use the SDGs as a lever for carving out uncontested positions in future markets. The paper concludes that companies overwhelmingly view the SDGs as a business opportunity rather than as a business responsibility, something that fundamentally may distinguish the SDG agenda from previous responsibility agendas. The paper fills a gap in the extant literature on business responsibility by developing and validating a classification of the business case for the SDGs based on economic value drivers, and by deepening the empirical understanding of, what precisely this business case may be.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Social Responsibility
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Denmark
334. Cyberattacks Integral to Russia's Political and Military Strategies
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- To destabilise democratic countries that support Ukraine, Russia employs cyberattacks on the target state’s public institutions and critical infrastructure. These activities have clearly intensified since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 and is in line with the implementation of Russian military strategy. In this context, it would be beneficial within the EU and NATO to develop joint action plans to respond to future threats in cyberspace.
- Topic:
- NATO, Infrastructure, European Union, Cybersecurity, Cyberspace, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
335. The Schengen Zone: While Croatia Joins, Further Enlargement Faces Challenges
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In December, EU interior ministers unanimously supported the expansion of the Schengen zone to include Croatia. At the same time, the Council did not agree on the membership of Romania and Bulgaria. The former was opposed by Austria, and the latter by both Austria and the Netherlands. Although Croatia’s smooth integration into Schengen may weaken the arguments of sceptics of further enlargement, without deep reforms of the entire system and the EU’s migration policy, it will be very difficult to obtain consent for membership of other candidates.
- Topic:
- Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, Schengen, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Croatia
336. Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
337. Cooperation and Peril: Germany Attempts a Policy Balance with China
- Author:
- Łukasz Jasiński
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the resulting disruption of supply chains have intensified the ongoing debate in Germany over the preferred shape of German-Chinese relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government sees China as both a partner and rival. Reducing dependence on China is challenging due to its scale and the strength of the pro-China business lobby. This unsteady position will cause tensions in relations with partners, including the U.S., and conflicts within the governing coalition. Germany will continue to develop trade relations with China while blocking Chinese investment in critical sectors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Trade, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Germany
338. GCC Countries, Seeking Food Security, Eye Agricultural Investments
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The growing consumption of food in the Gulf states is leading to the acquisition of foreign farmlands. This practice increases the Gulf states’ influence in African countries and the European neighbourhood. The competitiveness of their agricultural sector is also growing in relation to the less innovative European agriculture thanks to the development of technologies responding to difficult climatic conditions.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Food Security, Investment, Innovation, and Gulf Cooperation Council
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
339. Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, European Union, Gas, and Diversification
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa
340. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?
- Author:
- Przemysław Biskup
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth
341. India Emerges as a Key Power and Important Partner for the EU in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- India’s commissioning of its second aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, in September this year reaffirms the country’s aim to play a leading role in the Indo-Pacific. The country’s importance in the region will depend mainly on the course of the India-China rivalry, an increase in its economic potential, and the support provided to it by foreign partners. The convergence of goals in the Indo-Pacific strengthens India’s partnership with the U.S. and opens up opportunities for intensifying cooperation with the EU, especially in terms of connectivity, climate change, and the development of capacity in maritime domain awareness.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific
342. Right-Wing Coalition Wins Parliamentary Elections in Italy
- Author:
- Łukasz Maślanka
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The elections to Italy’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate on 25 September were won by the Centre-Right coalition led by the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party headed by Giorgia Meloni. The winning party’s won over voters by its decision to remain in opposition to the government of Mario Draghi, which was supported by all other parties. The right-wing’s victory was also facilitated by the inability of the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5S) to form a coalition, which split the votes of left-wing voters. The biggest challenge for the FdI-led coalition will be to simultaneously maintain the support of the voters, good relations with the EU, and the confidence of the financial markets.
- Topic:
- European Union, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
343. Space Technologies Key to the EU's Fight Against Climate Change
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Launched in March 2022, the Destination Earth initiative to create a digital model of the Earth confirms the importance of space technologies in the EU’s green and digital transformations. The consequences of climate change, such as droughts, fires, and floods, reduce the security of citizens and cause economic losses. The dissemination of applications using satellite data will increase the effectiveness of climate action and sustainable development in the EU.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
344. Digitalisation for Sustainable Infrastructure: The Road Ahead
- Author:
- Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- In today’s tumultuous and fast-changing times, digitalisation and technology are game changers in a wide range of sectors and have a tremendous impact on infrastructure. Roads, railways, electricity grids, aviation, and maritime transport are deeply affected by the digital and technological transition, with gains in terms of competitiveness, cost-reduction, and safety. Digitalisation is also a key tool for fostering global commitment towards sustainability, but the race for digital infrastructure is also a geopolitical one. As the world’s largest economies are starting to adopt competitive strategies, a level playing field appears far from being agreed upon. Why are digitalisation and technology the core domains of global geopolitical competition? How are they changing the way infrastructure is built, operated, and maintained? To what extent will road, rail, air, and maritime transport change by virtue of digitalisation, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things? How to enhance cyber protection for critical infrastructure? What are the EU’s, US’ and China's digital strategies?
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, Sustainability, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
345. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas and Catarina Martins
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- We study the economic implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. We find that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and the sanctions were not the most important drivers. Nevertheless, International Monetary Fund forecast revisions from October 2021 to October 2022 suggest that the volume of global trade in goods and services declined by 3.4 percent, energy prices increased by about 100 percent, and the prices of non-energy commodities by 8 percent. The war could be an important driver of these forecast revisions, though other factors were also at play. While forecasts for important industrial production input costs were not revised, soaring energy prices deteriorated the trade balance of countries importing energy. Only half of the increase in Russia’s trade surplus was related to soaring energy prices. The other half resulted from the collapse of Russian imports, which will likely undermine the Russian economy’s productive capacity over time. Falling Russian exports of goods other than mineral fuels suggest Russia’s productive capacity has already weakened. Russia’s trade has been reoriented from advanced economies to China, India and Turkey, but this has only partially compensated for the decline in trade with advanced countries. We find that sanctions had an impact on trade. There is no evidence of European and US companies circumventing sanctions by re-routing sanctioned goods to Russia via China and Turkey. The UK and the US have already stopped importing fossil fuels from Russia, and such imports by the EU have declined. With the EU’s Russian seaborne crude petroleum import ban taking effect in December 2022 and the refined petroleum ban coming to effect in February 2023, Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports to the EU are set to shrink significantly, with limited options for redirecting exports to other countries. The three main policy-relevant implications from our research are: The war and the sanctions are not the most important drivers of energy price; The direct aim of sanctions seems to have been achieved; The capacity of the Russian state to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink. The dataset used for most charts of this working paper is regularly updated and is available in the Russian foreign trade tracker
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Fossil Fuels, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
346. You’ll never talk alone: what media narratives on European reforms reveal about a polity in the making
- Author:
- Emmanuel Mourion-Druol, Henrik Müller, Giuseppe Porcaro, and Tobias Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the discourse since 2001 in three leading national business newspapers about reforms in the European Union: Handelsblatt (Germany), Il Sole (Italy) and Les Echos (France). We collected and organised a large dataset of articles published in these three newspapers. We used topic modelling to identify latent topics across articles. Based on this database, we then addressed four research questions and found: a relative degree of synchronisation of reform debates across the three countries; comparable reporting patterns, especially around the main crises; a greater degree of direction of the debate towards European issues over national issues in Germany than in France and Italy; and the tentative emergence of a shared narrative about crises. Finally, we highlight that bringing conflict and contestation back into European discussions may help stimulate wider interest in European matters.
- Topic:
- Reform, European Union, Media, and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
347. Risks to job quality from digital technologies: are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge?
- Author:
- Janine Berg, Francis Green, Laura Nurski, and David Spencer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- We examine the job quality effects of new digital technologies in Europe, using the framework of seven job quality ‘domains’: pay, working time quality, prospects, skills and discretion, work intensity, social environment and physical environment. The theoretical effects from new technology are ambivalent for all domains. Data on robot shocks matched to the European Working Conditions Surveys for 2010 and 2015 is used to generate empirical estimates, which show significant aggregate negative effects in three domains, and a positive effect in one. Some negative effects are enhanced where there is below-median collective bargaining. In light of these analyses, and in order to think through the challenge of regulating the development and implementation of all forms of digital technologies, we review regulations in several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we advance the general hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application to the regulation of job quality of national and supra-national data protection legislation. In these ways, the paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, to a consideration of job quality more broadly.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Employment, and Work
- Political Geography:
- Europe
348. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Its Implications for Asia
- Author:
- Hubert Fallmann, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- To achieve a climate-neutral European Union (EU) by 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement, the EU needs to more ambitiously reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the coming decade and update its climate and energy policy framework. The recently adopted European Climate Law sets a new EU target for 2030 of reducing GHG emissions by at least 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. To deliver this, the European Commission has proposed a “Fit for 55” package containing, among other initiatives, legislative proposals for a revision of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with a more stringent emissions cap and a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM will put a carbon price on imports of a targeted selection of goods with the aim of 1). ensuring that ambitious climate action in the EU does not lead to carbon leakage, and 2). encouraging partner countries to implement similar carbon-pricing policies. This policy, even at its proposal stage, has created a significant impact worldwide in supporting the uptake of carbon-pricing policies and in encouraging consideration of similar carbon border adjustment policies. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Its Implications for Asia investigates the details of the EU’s proposed CBAM and its specific implications for companies and governments in Asia.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
349. Characterisation of Danish agricultural investments in Tanzania and Uganda
- Author:
- Rikke Broegaard, Helle Monk Ravnborg, Evelyne Lazaro, Teddy Nakanwagi, and David Tumusiime
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This DIIS Working Paper presents key characteristics of each of the six cases including main crop focus, size and business model, as well as types of investors, their investment approach and the factors that motivate them. It also presents the different objectives that the investors have expressed wanting to achieve. As most of the investments involve private funds, it is reasonable to expect that one important goal is to ensure a viable economy in the investment. However, in addition to an economically sound investment, all of the investors behind these six cases have ambitions regarding ways in which they see themselves - through the investment - as contributors towards a positive societal development in the area of the investment. Thus, the paper presents the different ways the investors see their investments contributing to development in the area. The paper is based on interviews with the investors and field work in the areas of investments.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Food, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Denmark, Tanzania, and Africa
350. The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis
- Author:
- Philipp Heimberger
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the cyclicality of fiscal policy (discretionary versus automatic) for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021 by paying special attention to the Covid-19 crisis. We find evidence that discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more countercyclical than before – in particular in the Eurozone. We do not find comparable evidence for more counter-cyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis, which lends support to the argument that discretionary fiscal policy responded especially forceful to stabilise the economy during the Covid-19 crisis. Furthermore, automatic fiscal stabilisers contributed significantly to counter-cyclical stabilisation, although their performance over 2020-2021 was more in line with the past than for discretionary fiscal policy. Overall, fiscal policy in non-Eurozone advanced countries is more countercyclical than in the Eurozone. However, the cyclicality varies markedly across countries. Our findings shed light on how the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy varies across countries and time.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Euro
- Political Geography:
- Europe
351. Determinants and Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Austria: Spillovers to Novel Innovative Environmental Technologies
- Author:
- Mahdi Ghodsi and Branimir Jovanovic
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This study investigates the determinants of FDI in Austria, as well as their spillovers to innovating technologies, productivity, and employment, using firm-level data, for the period 2008-2018. The findings point out that a decrease in the costs of trade increases investment in foreign-owned subsidiaries in Austria, and that FDI is pre-dominantly carried out in industries characterised by greater capital-intensity, higher wages, more agglomeration and regional concentration. Furthermore, FDI is higher in regions with a larger GDP and with a larger share of the population with upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education. The study also finds that there are positive spillovers of FDI to the domestic economy, which are strongest and most positive for innovative activities in environmental technologies. In other words, FDI helps Austrian firms to become more innovative in major environmental technologies. Such innovative efforts are best supported at the firm-level by supporting the total assets and investment of domestic firms, and at the regional level by increasing the share of the population with higher levels of education and employing more R&D personnel. The active presence of innovative foreign MNEs that enjoy extensive technological capacities, high-skilled labour, experienced management, and large-scale resources are also conducive to innovative activities.
- Topic:
- Environment, Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Innovation, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Austria
352. Demography, Capital Accumulation and Growth
- Author:
- Robert Stehrer and Maryna Tverdostup
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Europe will be challenged by demographic changes over the next few decades, even under favourable assumptions about fertility and migration, but the economic effects are not yet fully understood. This paper studies the effects of population ageing on economic growth, capital deepening and robotisation in 27 European Union (EU) labour markets. First, we econometrically assess the effects of ageing and potential labour market shortages on growth. Second, we test the hypothesis of whether ageing leads to faster adoption of new technologies. We distinguish between various capital asset types, including non-ICT and ICT capital, tangible and intangible capital and the adoption of robots. The analysis is based on Eurostat, the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data. Results indicate that ageing and demographic changes might contribute to secular stagnation, which decelerates the adoption of new technologies.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Aging, Labor Market, and Capital Accumulation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
353. EU-Azerbaijan Economic Relations: New Perspectives and Targets
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The study is an example of the series on issues analyzing the EU-Azerbaijan economic relations which can be considered a step forward to empower economic approach in the policy-making process aiming to provide an alternative view in addressing current challenges and developments in Azerbaijan. The European Union’s relations with Azerbaijan have been formulated based on the EU-Azerbaijan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement which entered into force since 1999. In February 2017, the EU and Azerbaijan began negotiations on a new framework agreement designed to enhance the political dialogue, trade and mutually beneficial cooperation covering a wide range of economic aspects. One of the most important strategies of EU in the energy policy is to ensure energy security through diversification of energy routes. Azerbaijan is a strategically important energy partner for the EU and plays a significant role in bringing Caspian energy resources to the EU market. In 2018, the EU and Azerbaijan endorsed joint Partnership Priorities, along the four Eastern Partnership priorities that accompany the political dialogue and economic cooperation….
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan
354. World Economy Winter 2022: Strong headwinds for global economic activity
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
355. German Economy Winter 2022: Inching through the energy crisis
- Author:
- Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Sonnenberg, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Vincent Stamer, and Timo Hoffmann
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by so-called price brakes. Overall, inflation in 2023 will be much lower at 5.4 percent than we had expected in our autumn forecast (8.7 percent). Although real disposable income and, as a result, private consumption are likely to decrease next year, the decline will be much smaller than had been expected a few months ago. As a result, we now expect a slight increase in GDP of 0.3 percent for 2023 (autumn: -0.7 percent). In 2024, GDP is expected to grow somewhat more strongly again at 1.3 percent (autumn: 1.7 percent). The labour market is robust despite the economic slowdown, partly because companies are still desperately seeking skilled workers. The public fiscal balance is likely to deteriorate significantly in 2023 due to the aid packages in response to the energy crisis and displays a deficit of around 4 percent relative to GDP. With the expiry of the aid packages, the deficit will decrease again in 2024.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Budget, Business, Labor Market, Energy Crisis, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
356. World Economy Autumn 2022: Global growth falters
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still available to mitigate the adverse impact to some extent. At the same time financial conditions have also deteriorated as central banks tightened their policies. In China, the strict zero-covid policy and problems in the real estate sector are slowing economic activity. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further. We have, again, lowered our forecast and are now expecting global output to increase by only 2.9 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year (calculated on a purchasing power parity basis). The forecast assumes that commodity prices will gradually decline in line with forward prices, which will over time reduce the upward pressure on prices and provides the foundations for an economic upturn in 2024. However, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into consumer prices is probably not yet complete and wage increases are likely to intensify in many countries. Consequently, underlying inflation is likely to remain higher than in the years before the Covid crisis and remain above central bank targets over the forecast horizon.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Business, COVID-19, Zero-COVID, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
357. Why do Preferences for Redistribution Differ Across Countries?
- Author:
- Gianluca Grimalda, Francesco Farina, Anna Conte, and Ulrich Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- We test for different theories purporting to explain cross-country differences in income redistribution through standardized experimental choices. US Americans and Italians demand less redistribution than Norwegians and Germans, regardless of whether self-interest is relevant. Those earning (or expecting to earn) below-median incomes behave as "libertarians" more frequently in the US and Italy than in Germany and Norway. Above-the-median earners behave similarly across countries. Higher overconfidence by US Americans and Italians further reduces their demand for redistribution under uncertainty. The "Prospect of Upward Mobility" hypothesis holds similarly in all countries. US Americans do not reward individual merit more than others.
- Topic:
- Economic Mobility, Redistribution, Income Distribution, and Behavioral Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Italy, North America, and United States of America
358. Regional Deprivation and Populism - Evidence from Germany and the U.S.
- Author:
- Michael Bayerlein
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- A widely held view is that increasing globalisation and inequality are fostering support for populist actors. Surprisingly, when focusing on Germany and the U.S., populist voting is highest in less globalised regions with rather equal income distributions. Addressing this puzzle, I ask how the regional variance in populist voting can be explained. In my answer, I introduce the concept of spatial inequality, which describes the regional inequality within countries, and construct a measure of public goods scarcity. I argue that the spatial inequality induced feeling of being left behind is positively correlated with populist voting and that this effect is mitigated by public goods provision. Using county level data to develop spatial inequality and public good scarcity indices, I can provide empirical support for these arguments. The findings have important implications for understanding the sub-national variance in populist voting and the role of relative economic deprivation as well as public goods provision.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Inequality, Populism, Voting, Regional Economy, and Public Goods
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
359. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes
- Author:
- Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
360. How to make I.T. in Greek Manufacturing: Evidence and Policy Recommendations
- Author:
- Sofia Anyfantaki
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Greece has so far failed to shift its production structure towards more complex, high value-added activities, incorporating knowledge-intensive practices. Given the country’s low performance in innovation and knowledge diffusion relative to EU peers, we focus on two specific problem areas of Greek industry: skills and management practices. First, we provide an in-depth look at skills indicators to identify the scope for action, particularly in addressing mismatch. Second, we use firm-level data from the World Management Survey to give an overview of management practices in Greek industry and explore the quality of these practices and their association with productivity. We have two novel findings: first, we document that Greece has the highest overskilling for professional occupations in the OECD; second, we show that Greek firms do best in areas requiring unitary decision making, and worst in areas requiring teamwork and synergies. We complement our analysis with data from a new survey and examine structural characteristics of innovation and technology adoption. The collection of our empirical findings provides valuable input into concrete policy proposals to increase productivity in Greek manufacturing.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Innovation, Industry, and Information Technology
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
361. From Media-Party Linkages to Ownership Concentration Causes of Cross-National Variation in Media Outlets’ Economic Positioning
- Author:
- Erik Neimanns and Nils Blossey
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- A sizable literature on media bias suggests that media coverage is frequently biased towards certain political and economic positions. However, we know little about what drives variation in political and ideological bias in news coverage across countries. In this paper, we argue that increasingly commercialized and concentrated media markets are likely to be associated with media coverage leaning more favorably towards economically more rightwing positions. Media bias should reflect the preferences of media owners and should be a result of a reduced diversity of news media content. In contrast, where media outlets continue to be oriented more closely along partisan lines, often referred to as political parallelism, bias on economic issues should be more likely to cancel out at the aggregate level. To test these claims, we combine expert survey data on partisan attachments of media outlets, party ideologies, and media ownership concentration for twenty-four European countries. Results from multilevel regression models support our theoretical expectations. With media framing potentially affecting individual-level preferences and perceptions, high and rising levels of media ownership concentration may help to explain why governments in the affluent Western democracies often do remarkably little to counter trends of rising income inequality.
- Topic:
- Politics, Media, News Analysis, and Bias
- Political Geography:
- Europe
362. Operationalizing Growth Models
- Author:
- Lucio Baccaro and Sinisa Hadziabdic
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on importadjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the “drivers” of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Economy, Economic Growth, Exports, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia
363. The Rise and Fall of Social Housing? Housing Decommodification in Long-Run Perspective
- Author:
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, and Sarah Hellmüller
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- The comparative study of housing decommodification lags behind classical welfare state research, while housing research itself is rich in homeownership studies but lacks comparative accounts of private and social rentals due to missing comparative data. Building on existing works and various primary sources, this study presents a new collection of up to forty-eight countries’ social housing shares in stock and new construction since the first housing laws around 1900. The interpolated benchmark time series generally describe the rise and fall of social housing across a residual, a socialist, and a Northern-European housing group. The decline was steeper than for the classical welfare state, but the degree of erosion was surprisingly small in some countries where public housing associations remained resilient. Within the broader housing welfare state, social housing correlates positively with rent regulation and allowances, but negatively with homeownership subsidies and liberal mortgage regulation. A multivariate analysis shows that social housing is rather explained by housing shortages and complementarities with rental and welfare policies than by typical welfare state theories (GDP, political parties). Generally, the paper shows that conventional housing typologies are difficult to defend over time and argues more generally for including housing decommodification in welfare state research.
- Topic:
- Public Policy, Housing, and Welfare State
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
364. Factsheet: Karl Nehammer
- Author:
- Karl Nehammer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Karl Nehammer is the current Chancellor of Austria. Three days prior to being sworn in as Chancellor on December 6, 2021, he became the managing chairman of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). Previously, he served as the Minister of the Interior from 2020 to 2021, General Secretary of the ÖVP from 2018 to 2020, and a member of the National Council from 2017 to 2020. He has been a key figure in supporting anti-Muslim policies.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Karl Nehammer
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Austria
365. Factsheet: Susanne Raab
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Susanne Raab is the current Minister of Women and Integration of Austria. She joined the government of Sebastian Kurz of the Austrian People’s Party, which was responsible for many anti-Muslim legislations that have meanwhile been rescinded by various courts. Raab has been a key figure in supporting anti-Muslim policies in Austria.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Susanne Raab
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Austria
366. Factsheet: Ednan Aslan
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Ednan Aslan is a Turkish-German Professor of Islamic Religious Education at the University of Vienna in Austria. Aslan is frequently interviewed by mainstream media as an expert on Islam and a critical voice on Muslims. He has been a vocal supporter of the Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s anti-Muslim policies, and also served in the Documentation Center Political Islam, a federally funded center that monitors, surveils, and maps Muslims in Austria.
- Topic:
- Surveillance, Islamophobia, Political Islam, and Ednan Aslan
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Austria
367. Beyond Networks, Militias and Tribes: Rethinking EU Counter-Smuggling Policy and Response
- Author:
- Gabriella Sanchez, Kheira Arrouche, Matteo Capasso, Angeliki Dimitriadi, and Alia Fakhry
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- Countering migrant smuggling and its actors – described as the men behind the facilitation of migrants’ irregular journeys – are important elements of the European Union (EU)’s migration and border control policy. Under the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, the EU has proposed to promote tailor-made and mutually beneficial partnerships with third countries specifically to address migrant smuggling. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson has also promised a predictable and reliable migration management system that includes “stepping up the fight against human traffickers and smugglers”. The EU has certainly taken important steps to counter irregular migration, including making considerable financial commitments to the fight against smugglers and their networks, to whom the journeys of irregular migrants into Europe are almost single-handedly attributed. Smugglers, characterised as inherently violent and exploitative, are also described as relying on a specific business model that generates incalculable earnings. Much has been written about how these profits, if unmonitored, can be funnelled by smugglers into other criminal enterprises like drug trafficking or weapons smuggling, but also into the more nefarious practices of sex trafficking or terrorism. Within this context, smugglers are also said to exploit an ever-growing number of naïve and desperate victims, primarily young men from sub-Saharan Africa who, driven solely by the power of social media and the iconography portraying European soil as a dreamed destination, do not think twice about embarking on dangerous journeys across vast deserts and seas. At high level policy events and academic exchanges, participants often cite examples of young men who, tricked by Facebook and Instagram posts, arrive in Europe after enduring harrowing experiences only to find themselves in even more desperate situations of homelessness and deprivation, having believed the lies and false promises of smugglers, friends and family members posted online. Migrant women, on the other hand, tend to be described as young sex slaves or prostitutes, victims of the depravity of sexually-predatory smugglers who do not hesitate to exploit them for profit in cities across North Africa and Europe. Migrants do face violence and intimidation at the hands of smugglers. These experiences have been documented at length in a vast number of reports targeting European audiences. Kidnapping, extortion, and physical and sexual assault are undeniable and troubling realities on the migration pathway, and migrants do experience them often at the hands of smugglers. Women, girls, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex and questioning migrants are also more vulnerable to specific forms of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), which are often compounded by racism and other forms of discrimination – this does not preclude the fact that SGBV against migrant men is also common on the migrant trail. This policy study, developed by a team of migration scholars based in EU research institutions, argues that while these general notions have guided the mainstream, collective understanding of migrant smuggling, they do in fact pose several and serious limitations that, if not considered closely, can lead to faulty conclusions and inadequate policy responses. Echoing other studies, this report shows that irregular migration and counter-smuggling policy are often based on limited empirical data, drawn from similar if not identical stakeholders, and developed by a reduced and identifiable core of researchers (most of them, European and/or Europe-based). While this body of work has to a large extent expanded the understanding of smuggling, it has simultaneously privileged Euro-centric perspectives and law enforcement priorities at the expense of silencing the experiences (other than those involving victimisation and abuse) of the very people who rely on smugglers for their journeys. Chapter one examines how research has shown that while in most law enforcement, policy and academic circles the facilitation of irregular migration for profit is articulated as a crime, for most migrants the people behind their journeys merely facilitate a service of mobility, which may be in some instances illicit but not criminal, rooted in the lack of accessible, affordable, legal and safe paths for migration. These actors, commonly depicted in academic publications and research reports as heinously violent and predatory members of tribes or other ethnic and racialised groups, are quite often valued and well-respected people in communities across North Africa and the Sahel, trusted for the efficiency of their mobility, trade and transportation services. Known or depicted as smugglers in policy reports, these facilitators are quite often ordinary men and women, recognised for their contributions to the local economy, including the provision of mobility solutions for young and adult migrants unable to secure the protections afforded by passports or visas.
- Topic:
- Migration, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Europe
368. Post-Covid-19 EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations
- Author:
- Katarzyna Sidlo, Esmat Mostafa Kamel, Hussein Suleiman, and Guillaume Van der Loo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The European Union (EU) is a key trade partner, both in terms of goods and services, for the countries in its Southern Neighbourhood (SN): Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Palestine,[1] Jordan and Lebanon.[2] The economic (and otherwise) relationship between the two partners is governed by the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements (EMAAs), which came into force from the early to mid-2000s. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has, however, affected the trade exchange between the two, just as it has an adverse impact on trade globally. As pointed out in the second chapter of this policy study, one of the sectors of great importance to both the EU and the SN is agri-foods. Despite a general drop in merchandise trade, the agri-food exports from the EU actually increased globally by 0.5% during the first 10 months of the pandemic compared to the same period the year before, up to €151.8 billion. In the case of the SN, exports of agri-foods during the first three quarters of 2020 (year-on-year) grew particularly strongly in the case of Morocco (27.2%) and Algeria (20.3%) and decreased most visibly in the case of Lebanon (-37.9%). As for exports from the EU to the SN, during the same period a particularly impressive growth was witnessed in the case of Tunisia (40.3%) but the value of agri-food imports of Morocco also went up (8.4%). Trade in services, as analysed in chapter three, was hit more severely than trade in goods and declined significantly in all countries in the region during the first months of the pandemic. For Morocco, for instance, during the first three quarters of 2020 it plummeted by almost 60% (year-on-year). Because of lockdowns and travel bans, the tourism sector was among the hardest hit, even though the countries in the SN are mostly visited by travellers from nearby markets: the SN region or Europe – in 2019 the latter constituted between 29.4% (Tunisia) and 68.2% (Morocco) of all arrivals (after excluding nationals of SN countries who live abroad). As a result, tourism revenues plummeted (in Palestine, for instance, by an estimated 68%) and a significant number of people were made redundant; before the pandemic, between just under 6% (Algeria and Israel) and nearly 20% (Lebanon) of all (formally employed) workers were employed in the travel and tourism sector. The disturbances outlined above have adversely impacted food security in the region, as initial data presented in chapter four suggests. While isolating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security is difficult, as many other factors – such as bad harvest due to weather conditions in Morocco – were in play in 2020, the pandemic clearly affected both supply of and demand for foodstuffs. Some countries were more affected than others, as has already been mentioned above in the case of agri-food trade with the EU. At the same time, the impact on food security within the countries was also far from homogenous, with refugees (e.g., due to loss of work in informal sector) and poorer households – spending a bigger share of domestic budget on increasingly more expensive food products – more often forced to adopt emergency livelihood coping strategies, such as limitation of daily calory intake. Looking towards the post-COVID-19 trade relations, as outlined in chapter one of this study, the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plans and trade strategy review offer a new momentum for the SN countries to strengthen and modernise their framework for trade relations with the EU, to capitalise on potential re-shoring and near-shoring trends in EU and global value chains, and to promote (intra-) regional economic integration. However, the envisaged Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs) currently under negotiation with Tunisia and Morocco may not be the most realistic option at this stage. A more gradual approach based on sectoral agreements could be adopted in the short- to medium-term instead, leading to a DCFTA-like model of trade integration. Moreover, in order to strengthen the (intra-)regional economic and value chain integration, modernisation of the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention should remain a priority. Finally, the modernisation of EU-SN trade relations should be linked and integrated into the broader (and longer-term) plans for EU-Africa trade relations, with an eye on the “continent-to-continent Free Trade Area” in the long run. Internally, governments in the SN should prioritise development of high productivity service sectors and work towards curbing their reliance on tourism and transportation. In order to achieve that goal, improving the quality of their institutions is as important as upgrading telecommunications infrastructure or adopting incentives such as tax breaks. More broadly, speeding up digital transformation would both facilitate servicification and reduce costs associated with merchandise trade.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean
369. A Euro-Mediterranean Green Deal? Towards A Green Economy In The Southern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Julia Choucair Vizoso
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The transition to a green economy requires nothing short of a major, structural transformation of economic models, domestic and global. The scale and pace of the change needed and the high level of uncertainty require bold commitments, cooperation, innovation and experimentation across sectors, stakeholders and countries – a fierce challenge for the globe, well beyond the shores of the Mediterranean. Each chapter in this study includes domain-specific and country- specific findings and proposes recommendations on how to accelerate the green economy in the particular context. Due to the social, economic and political heterogeneity in the region, it is obvious that a “one size fits all” solution is not suitable. Nonetheless, common findings and recommendations do emerge across the case studies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean
370. Great Expectations: Defining A Trans-Mediterranean Cybersecurity Agenda
- Author:
- Patryk Pawlak
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- European Union (EU) cooperation on cybersecurity with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is conditioned by two competing claims. Due to the geographical proximity and broad security implications for the EU, the MENA region is one of the priorities of the EU’s external relations. Over the past two decades, and especially after the Arab Spring, the EU has invested significant resources to support the reforms in the region and align its policies with its own. At the same time, however, this ambition to cooperate closely with the region is often made more complicated by the situation on the ground. This is particularly the case of cyber resilience cooperation, where even despite overlapping interests – like the fight against cybercrime or improving the overall level of cybersecurity – the EU needs to exercise enhanced due diligence in order to avoid undermining the already fragile human rights protection in some of those countries. Reconciling these two elements – the willingness to engage in closer cooperation and the need for a cautious approach to cybersecurity cooperation – remains the key challenge. Against this background, the study aims to address two questions. First, to what extent are different initiatives and policies implemented across the region compatible with the EU’s own interests and values? Second, who are the key multipliers on cybersecurity in the region that could potentially align with the EU in certain aspects and help it achieve its policy objectives? Which of these relationships are mature enough or require further work in order to turn into concrete cooperation initiatives? These two sets of questions guide the discussion in each of the chapters.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA
371. Dealing with the Neighbours: The case for an affiliate membership of the European Union and a new Security Council
- Author:
- Andrew Duff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Brexit is proving to be even more troublesome than expected, giving rise to a gradual softening of British public opinion towards the EU. Any future UK government is likely to want to renegotiate parts of the separation deal that Boris Johnson struck with the EU. Reconciliation between Britain and Europe will take time and need careful calibration, however. The EU should prepare for this constructively and use the opportunity of a British renegotiation to review all its other association agreements - none of which are without defect. The question of governance lies at the heart of the problems which impair the EU’s relations with its neighbours. The EEA and Swiss arrangements are in any case due for overhaul and upgrading. The EU’s traditional enlargement policy to the east and south has foundered, and it would be better if this were admitted openly. Not only are candidate countries unable to meet the demands of membership, but the EU itself is too weak to take on the burden of new members. Instead, a new category of affiliate membership should be written into the EU treaties. Affiliation should allow the EU to develop close economic and cultural partnerships with its neighbours in a democratic fashion. Affiliate states would enjoy greater access to the EU institutions than is permitted under any of the current association agreements. Affiliate membership would also be available as an option for any current EU member state which, like the UK, chose not to adhere to the goal of an ever closer union. Such differentiated integration of the wider Europe will require the EU to build stronger federal government at the centre. The new structure should also be underpinned by the establishment of a European Security Council combining EU member and affiliate states with NATO — including Canada and the US — in regular strategic and operational decisions to protect Western security. The French presidency in the first half of 2022 should take the necessary first steps. The Conference on the Future of Europe might consider these proposals.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
372. Mind the Gap: Priorities for Transatlantic China Policy
- Author:
- Wolfgang Ischinger and Joseph S. Nye Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Working together with partners such as Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and many others with whom areas of agreement can be identified will be crucial to achieving success.9 In the case of Russia, a constructive dialogue on China is clearly not a near-term prospect. But given Russia’s strategic interests it is a conversation to which the West should revert once conditions permit. The rise of a domestically authoritarian and globally assertive China renders transatlantic cooperation more relevant than at any time in recent history. Transatlantic partners need to be ready for long-term strategic competition. They must also seize opportunities for cooperation with China, starting with issues such as climate change, global health, and food security. By working together from a position of strength, they will improve the chances of arriving at more productive relationships with China.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and North America
373. Two Birds, One Budget: Using ODA for Influence and Development in the Indo-Pacific?
- Author:
- Rachael Calleja, Sam Hughes, and Beata Cichocka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the UK’s proposed “Indo-Pacific tilt” from a development perspective. In light of recent cuts to the UK’s official development assistance (ODA), we ask how the UK can use scarce development resources in the Indo-Pacific more effectively to capitalise on opportunities to support strategic objectives while ensuring that ODA remains squarely focused on development priorities. Our analysis seeks to understand both how the UK is positioned within the Indo-Pacific, which is an already-crowded development landscape, as well as where the UK’s strategic and developmental priorities in the region might meaningfully overlap. We find that while there are some opportunities for the UK to support both development objectives and strategic interests concurrently in the Indo-Pacific—such as in the provision of regional and global public goods—the countries with the greatest strategic value to the UK are not those where additional ODA could contribute most clearly to poverty reduction. We conclude the paper with six policy recommendations. Among others, we propose that the UK should consider partnering with other like-minded providers to maximise its presence in the region.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific
374. Facilitating Environmental Migration through Humanitarian and Labour Pathways: Recommendations for the UK Government
- Author:
- Helen Dempster, Amelia Dal Pra, and Mariam Traore Chazalnoel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The impact of climate change, environmental degradation, and disasters on migration and human mobility is receiving more and more attention, by policymakers, academics, and the press alike. While there are gaps in the evidence base, much suggests that the vast majority of people will seek to move internally and regionally, rather than internationally. That being said, there are good reasons as to why high-income countries may want to facilitate so-called international “environmental migration” by adapting their existing legal and policy frameworks. This paper outlines how countries such as the United States of America (US), Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and various European countries have explored, created, or adapted their legal and policy frameworks to explicitly respond to international environmental migration, and the lessons learned therein. It concludes with a series of policy recommendations for the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) as to how the UK could adapt their own legal and policy frameworks to better respond to international environmental migration.
- Topic:
- Environment, Migration, Governance, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
375. Translating Results-Based Financing from Theory to Operational Reality: Lessons from the Practical Application of RBF at the European Commission
- Author:
- Rachel Silverman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- esults-based financing (RBF) is one of several broad approaches to finance official development assistance (ODA) “that attempt[s] to connect at least a portion of payment to the verified achievement of results.” Despite some relatively high-profile programs and pilots—and broad interest and curiosity—RBF approaches have yet to penetrate the routine operations of large institutional grant- and contract-based funders, many of which are governed by complex bureaucracies, restrictive financial regulations, and deeply entrenched, risk-averse corporate cultures. The European Commission (EC) is one large and influential donor that has shown a long-standing interest in RBF approaches but is still in initial phases of implementation. Informed by a research partnership between the Center for Global Development (CGD) and EC Commission Directorate-General for International Partnerships (INTPA), this Policy Paper reflects on the experience and lessons learned in attempting to operationalize RBF at scale within a large funder of ODA, with important implications for the broader international development community. Starting at the macro level, it considers the institutional prerequisites for adoption of RBF within a donor agency—in this case, the European Commission/INTPA. It then zooms into the project-level design and negotiation process, including the choice of implementing partner (in this case a United Nations agency) and political and technical stumbling blocks. It concludes with a discussion of remaining challenges for broader use.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
376. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain
- Author:
- Samik Adhikari, Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The youth population within Nigeria is rapidly increasing, but despite their high levels of education and skills, many are struggling to find meaningful work opportunities at home. At the same time, Europe’s working-age population is declining, resulting in employers in these countries facing large and persistent skill shortages within a range of mid-skill professions. Despite the large benefits that facilitating migration between Nigeria and Europe could bring, and despite the overtures of both European governments and the European Union, few mutually beneficial migration partnerships exist. This report, a joint production between the World Bank and the Center for Global Development (CGD), outlines how the Global Skill Partnership model could be used to meet needs on both sides. It explores the growing youth unemployment rate in Nigeria, the increasing emigration pressure, and the structures that have been set up to manage this movement. It also explores the large skill shortages persistent within Europe, its migration management relationship with Africa, and the potential positive impacts of opening new legal migration pathways. It creates a framework with which to explore potential sectors and partner countries for the implementation of the Global Skill Partnership model, providing practical steps that governments can follow. And finally, it applies this framework to three sectors and partner countries: a health care partnership between Nigeria and the UK, a construction partnership between Nigeria and Germany, and an information and communications technology (ICT) partnership with various European states.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Labor Issues, Intellectual History, Immigration Policy, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Nigeria
377. Incentivising Investment in Human Capital through the European Fund for Sustainable Development
- Author:
- Mikaela Gavas and Samuel Pleeck
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As the EU prepares to significantly scale up its deployment of blended finance, guarantees, and other risk-sharing tools aimed at stimulating investment in developing countries, and, in the face of spiralling needs as a result of COVID-19, this paper analyses how the EU could use its development budget to incentivise private investment in human capital. The paper provides three contributions. First, it gives an overview of the allocation of the EU’s external investment to date. Second, based on interviews with stakeholders, it documents cases of private investment in health and education while exploring some of the barriers to a higher share of investment in these sectors by the EU and its development finance partners. Finally, it puts forward a set of proposals for how to steer greater European external investment through the European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+) toward human capital.
- Topic:
- Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Investment, Human Capital, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Europe
378. US-Russian Contention in Cyberspace: Are Rules of the Road Necessary or Possible?
- Author:
- Pavel Sharikov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, as news of U.S.-Russian tensions in the cyber domain has dominated headlines, some strategic thinkers have pointed to the need for a bilateral cyber “rules of the road” agreement. American political scientist Joseph Nye, a former head of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, wrote in 2019 that, even “if traditional arms-control treaties are unworkable” in cyberspace, “it may still be possible to set limits on certain types of civilian targets, and to negotiate rough rules of the road that minimize conflict.” Robert G. Papp, a former director of the CIA’s Center for Cyber Intelligence, has likewise argued that “even a cyber treaty of limited duration with Russia would be a significant step forward.” On the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin himself has called for “a bilateral intergovernmental agreement on preventing incidents in the information space,” comparing it to the Soviet-American Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents on and Over the High Seas. Amid joint Russian-U.S. efforts, the Working Group on the Future of U.S.-Russia Relations recommended several elements of an agreement in 2016, among them that Russia and the U.S. agree “on the types of information that are to be shared in the event of a cyberattack” (akin to responses to a bio-weapons attack) and prohibit both “automatic retaliation in cases of cyberattacks” and “attacks on elements of another nation’s core internet infrastructure.” Most recently, in June 2021, a group of U.S., Russian and European foreign-policy officials and experts called for “cyber nuclear ‘rules of the road.’”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
379. Pork, infrastructure and growth: Evidence from the Italian railway expansion
- Author:
- Roberto Bonfatti, Giovanni Facchini, Alexander Tarasov, Gian Luca Tedeschi, and Cecilia Testa
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the role played by politics in shaping the Italian railway network, and its impact on long-run growth patterns. Examining a large state-planned railway expansion that took place during the second half of the 19th century in a recently unified country, we first study how both national and local political processes shaped the planned railway construction. Exploiting close elections, we show that a state-funded railway line is more likely to be planned for construction where the local representative is aligned with the government. Furthermore, the actual path followed by the railways was shaped by local pork-barreling, with towns supporting winning candidates more likely to see a railway crossing their territory. Finally, we explore the long-run effects of the network expansion on economic development. Employing population and economic censuses for the entire 20th century, we show that politics at a critical juncture played a key role in explaining the long-run evolution of local economies.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Infrastructure, and Railways
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
380. Improving access to the EU’s market for services
- Author:
- Marc Luban
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Regulatory heterogeneity between Israel and its key trading partners restricts the potential for bilateral trade. Approximation of the European Union’s regulatory standards would contribute to increased trade and investment. Upgrading Israel’s 1995 trade agreement with the EU could provide the optimal response to the regulatory heterogeneity and improve mutual access to markets for services.
- Topic:
- Markets, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Israel
381. COVID-19 financial aid and productivity: has support been well spent?
- Author:
- Carlo Altomonte, Lionel Fontagné, Maria Demertzis, and Steffen Müller
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Most European Union countries have made good progress with vaccinating their populations against COVID-19 and are now seeing a rebound in economic activity. While the scarring effects of the crisis and the long-term implications of the pandemic are only partially understood, the effects of support given to firms can be evaluated in order to help plan the removal of crisis support. European regions and countries that depend heavily on services requiring physical proximity have been hit hardest by COVID-19-related measures. But these services sectors tend also to be the smallest and least-productive in any economy, implying that, coming into the crisis, the highest shares of zombie firms were in these sectors. Reliance on physical proximity and the higher incidence of zombies to start with have combined to make those services-dependent economies particularly vulnerable to any attempt to remove the support put in place during the pandemic. The evidence shows that the main goal of the provision of support during the COVID-19 crisis, namely to protect employment, has been achieved. However, the evidence is varied on how efficiently this was done, in terms of helping firms that have a good chance of surviving, while not supporting those that will in any case exit. An analysis of France, Germany and Italy shows the potential for ‘cleansing effects’ in that it was the least-productive firms that have been affected most by the crisis. While support was generally not targeted at protecting good firms only, financial support went by and large to those with the capacity to survive and succeed. Labour schemes have been effective in protecting employment.
- Topic:
- European Union, COVID-19, and Financial Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, and Italy
382. The Digital Markets Act (DMA): Between European autonomy and transatlantic cooperation
- Author:
- George Tzogopoulos
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Greece is seeking to unleash innovation and digitalization to stabilize its economy in the aftermath of the economic crisis and to recover from the pandemic. Greece is closely monitoring EU regulatory developments on digital affairs and adjusting its legislation accordingly. The proposed Digital Markets Act (DMA) is aligned behind the broader EU strategy of increasing European digital autonomy, an objective also endorsed by Greece. The DMA-related concerns of politicians, experts, representatives of the business sector and start-uppers are important and multifaceted, and ought to be taken into account in Europe (and Greece), especially with regard to the question of the DMA’s allegedly negative impact on innovation. It is in the interest of the EU (and Greece) to strike a balance between the emphasis on regulation and ‘gatekeepers’ on the one hand, and the need for enterprises and start-ups to benefit from services provided by digital giants (often for free) on the other. Combining the above with the pursuit of European digital autonomy is a demanding task. Although the DMA does not directly impact on Greek companies, the country is hoping for a smooth evolution in transatlantic relations during the Biden Presidency, both generally and in technological affairs. Greek start-ups envisage a boost in their US presence. The DMA proposal is inevitably complex; more time may be required for some EU member-states, including Greece, to actively join the debate.
- Topic:
- European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Autonomy, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
383. Nudging for Recovery: Behavioral Economics and the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan
- Author:
- Demosthenes Kollias
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- With the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, Greece is presented with yet another opportunity to catch up with global trends. At the same time, behavioral economics are being established worldwide as a valuable asset in the policy maker’s toolkit. The paper -mainly focusing on taxation, labor market policy, and climate change- aims to examine the behavioral conundrum that creates frictions and inefficiency in the domains outlined above and to offer concrete and quantifiable policy proposals, in accordance with the goals of Greece 2.0. Regarding tax evasion, for example, one can estimate at least €1 billion in additional tax revenue if the proposals are implemented.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Tax Systems, Labor Market, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
384. Turkey’s African adventure: Taking stock of a new chapter in EU-Turkey relations
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Georgios Christos Kostaras
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Since its official adoption in 2005, Turkey’s “Africa Opening” (Afrika Açılımı) has become one of the most important elements in its foreign policy and resulted in the diversification of Turkey’s economic and political relations with sub-Saharan African states. While African-Turkish relations were broadly perceived as advanced by 2010, Ankara´s humanitarian involvement in Somalia the following year has been a catalyst for Turkey´s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Emphasizing both the absence of a colonial past and its religious affinities, Turkey has further promoted its relations and influence across the continent. This is most evident in the Sahel, where the strategies of Ankara and Paris are at loggerheads. EU and Turkish interests in Africa are not necessarily irreconcilable; Africa, a continent whose economic and strategic significance is set to sharply rise, deserves more attention from Greece and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
385. Turkey in Germany’s 2021 Elections: Political party manifestos and their views on Turkey
- Author:
- Ronald Meinardus
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Rarely has an election outcome in Germany been as uncertain as it is today. Berlin’s future policy towards Ankara, and not at least the related refugee issues, especially following the recent developments in Afghanistan, will be one of the topics future coalition partners will need to agree on. The election manifestos of the political parties provide an important source for analyzing the political views of the political actors. All parties criticize the dire situation of human rights and the rule of law in today’s Turkey. While CDU/CSU and the far-right AfD reject a Turkish membership in clear terms, the other parties are less outspoken in this point. Potentially the most consequential divergence as reflected in the electoral programs relates to Germany’s arms export policy and the EU Refugee Agreement of 2016. Unlike the other parties, both the Greens and “Die Linke” want to terminate the migration deal as well as the export of German arms to Turkey.
- Topic:
- Migration, Politics, Elections, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Germany, and Mediterranean
386. Skills mismatch in the Greek labour market: insights from a youth survey
- Author:
- Dimitris Katsikas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This policy paper presents some first findings from a youth survey relating to the skills mismatch in Greece. The survey was conducted in the context of the EEA Grants sponsored research project “Youth employment and gender equality: Mobilizing human capital for sustainable growth in Greece”, which is implemented by ELIAMEP and the Norwegian institute Fafo. The project seeks to document and analyze conditions in the Greek labour market, with an emphasis on the main barriers constraining young people’s access to it and on their progress once they get a job. Pending a more in-depth analysis of the findings, the preliminary evidence presented here adds some insights to the study of the skills mismatch phenomenon in Greece and helps us outline a few policy proposals. Skills mismatch is a significant problem for modern economies, as it leads to the inefficient utilization of the labour force, reducing productivity and growth potential. Research shows that Greece faces a serious skills mismatch problem. The findings of a youth survey presented here: Confirm the problem for the Greek labour market in both its vertical (over/ underqualification) and horizontal (field of study) dimensions. Show that skills mismatch affects graduates within every level and orientation (e.g., vocational training) of the educational system. Document young people’s belief that the educational system does not prepare them well for the labour market Show that skills mismatch is a serious obstacle to labour market entry for young people Confirm the lack of learning opportunities for those in employment, as well as the importance which young people attach to such opportunities for their professional progress. Reveal that young people often reject jobs due to low pay and unsatisfactory employment conditions, implying that reported skills shortages are also due to the terms of employment on offer. Policy responses should be multi-faceted, targeting both the educational system and the economy. Providing students with information about market developments and trends, and taking such information into account in the design of educational curricula (particularly in vocational training) is essential if the skills mismatch problem is to be addressed.
- Topic:
- Youth, Survey, Labor Market, and Skills
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
387. A deadly exodus: Five trends to watch for in the evolving Afghanistan crisis
- Author:
- George Pagoulatos
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- US failure to consult allies has created a new rift with Europe. The transatlantic rift will be bridged, because every side has an interest in repairing the damage. The Afghanistan debacle has demonstrated Europe’s virtual nonexistence as a standalone strategic actor in the security domain. It is a reminder that the EU needs to develop its strategic autonomy and a fully functioning common asylum system. Europe will focus on working with key neighboring countries, applying leverage as an economic and development aid superpower to extract conditionality. There are many losers, and only a few clear winners. Pakistan, Turkey, China and Iran emerge as main winners from regime change in Afghanistan, but not without a significant downside. Radical Islam and Jihadi movements have gained a landmark victory. Taliban II are no less zealous in their religious obscurantism than Taliban I. The Taliban will be under strong external pressure to crack down on exportable terrorism. The Taliban are unlikely to be able to establish an effective central government and will lack complete control of the land. The desperation of thousands of people struggling to leave is a potent symbol both of the West’s impotence and of the power of its values. The West retains its universal aspirational potency. So do versions of radical Islam, reverberating throughout the Muslim world as a liberation theology. A lesson in humility might well be the West’s most precious takeaway from Afghanistan’s chaotic fall.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, and United States of America
388. Energy: Factor of Stability or Conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean?
- Author:
- Marika Karagianni
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Security of critical economic and energy infrastructure has become a key element in the agenda of both the EU and NATO. The global balance between energy producers and energy importers needs also to be respected in order to secure the smooth operation of global economy and trade. Global energy organizations like OPEC and GAS OPEC see to that. Constructive, multilateral energy diplomacy via the reinforcement of the EMGF (East Med Gas Forum) is considered as the optimum solution to any destabilizing factor in the region. The Eastern Mediterranean has the potential to become a gas supply source for the EU in the future, alternatively to Russia, which is why it has been identified by Brussels as a future gas diversification source. The official strategy of Cairo is to develop indigenous natural gas resources, with the double aim to increase gas production rates and to export significant amounts to Europe in the immediate future. Egypt is bound to lead gas exports of the Eastern Mediterranean countries and diversification for Europe, through its LNG terminals. The East Med pipeline could follow later on.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Gas, Political stability, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean
389. Turkey’s Soft Power in the Balkans Reaching its Limits
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- With the EU putting the Western Balkan countries in an undefined waiting room, there was more room for maneuver for non-EU players. Turkey among others used this space to broaden its influence in the Balkans from politics to the economy, from culture to military cooperation, albeit from a very low starting point. The bilateral relations with all countries of the region are rather good, President Erdogan enjoys the recognition he is often lacking in other parts of the world. While the pandemic further harmed the EU’s image, it was mostly China and Russia who could fill the void with their own vaccines. Lacking its own vaccine so far, Turkey was much less visible. However, in the long-run, Turkey is not interested in an EU-Turkey confrontation over the Western Balkans, but that these countries join the EU. Through this, Turkey would increase the number of allies in a bloc where friends have become few.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, and Balkans
390. Protecting employment in 2021 and beyond: what can the new SURE instrument do?
- Author:
- Christina Kattami
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Protecting employment was not just a 2020 issue – while 2021 will be racing for vaccinations, and the immediate and complete relaxation of the containment measures will remain unlikely, the need to protect incomes and jobs will be as relevant as ever. As such, this policy brief analyses the rationale for, and the integration qualities of, the SURE instrument, which is being implemented following a European Commission proposal in April 2020 and a Council decision on 19 May 2020. By establishing the importance of short-time work schemes in protecting employment during the crucial first months of the pandemic, the brief explains the solidarity function of the SURE instrument, which ensures that all Member States have the resources available to make use of similar schemes to protect jobs, workers and incomes. Additionally, the decision to fund the SURE instrument with social bonds, which have been met with consistently overwhelming investor demand, forms an initial treasury form of what can be regarded as a European safe asset; something which will be strengthened in size and scope by the incoming European bonds funding the Recovery Instrument, Next Generation EU. Moving beyond 2021 and looking into a future model of employment protection in the future of the European labour market, the brief outlines the legal and political feasibility of transforming SURE into a permanent employment scheme, and, as such, an instrument of integration and socioeconomic resilience in the European Union.
- Topic:
- European Union, Employment, COVID-19, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
391. ΕU-Turkey Relations and the Migration Challenge: What is the Way Forward?
- Author:
- Panayotis Tsakonas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Although disruption remains the norm in Turkey’s behavior, the EU should stand firm in developing a strategy of “balancing engagement” to keep Turkey anchored in the broader European and transatlantic framework. The Customs Union is an important instrument at the EU’s disposal for concluding an agreement with Turkey and negotiations can lead to an agreement that would balance European and Turkish interests. Moreover, a European strategy towards Turkey should address not only the immediate challenge of Turkey’s assertive behavior in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also the future of EU-Turkey relations along with the pressing migration challenge. An updated EU-Turkey Statement should rectify certain provisions of the current Statement on migration regarding Greece as well as Turkey’s intention to exploit migrants and refugees. Greece is in favor of a “rules-based” relationship between the European Union and Turkey. It could be an active contributor to the advancement of the EU strategy of “balancing engagement” by co-shaping Turkey’s new relationship with the EU.
- Topic:
- Migration, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
392. Greece’s Rise as a Trans-Mediterranean Power: Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean strategic shift to Europe-to-Africa and Europe-to-Middle East connectivity
- Author:
- Michaël Tanchum
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Greece stands at the threshold of a strategic shift that could see the Hellenic Republic become Europe’s geopolitical gatekeeper of the emerging East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe commercial corridors. Whether Greece becomes a European leader in trans-Mediterranean connectivity depends on Athens’ ability to develop its own position in East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe manufacturing value chains. Greece’s advancing green energy, innovation economy offers promising avenues to engage Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in joint ventures that will transform Greece into a cutting-edge trans-Mediterranean actor. Greece’s new trans-Mediterranean profile is a strategic shift that will require the EU system to adjust its perception of Greece and incentivize closer coordination between Greece and other member states to facilitate joint venture investments in the two corridors. In the absence of such coordination, Athens will continue to deepen its relations with Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia while engaging with select EU member states. The extent to which Greece succeeds at industrial value chain integration will determine its role in the emerging trans-regional commercial architecture, and with it, Greece’s strategic standing within the European Union and the MENA region.
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Value Chains
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
393. Turkish drones, Greek challenges
- Author:
- Antonis Kamaras
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
394. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance
- Author:
- Nick Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean
395. Greek Diaspora in an uncertain world
- Author:
- Othon Anastasakis and Antonis Kamaras
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Greece’s fiscal crisis has energized its relationship with its diaspora in the last several years, after decades of decline, as well as reshaping the diaspora itself due to the massive crisis-driven migration. Research institutes as well as individual scholars have addressed key aspects of the diaspora and homeland relationship prior to and during the crisis. South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) established in 2015 the Greek Diaspora Project, a dedicated research unit which has applied the well-established diaspora and development literature to the Greek case, in the crisis and post-crisis years. The opportunities for synergistic research between University centers and think tanks located in Greece and abroad, in satisfactorily addressing this crisis-driven transformation of the diaspora & homeland relationship, are compelling. SEESOX and ELIAMEP have thus decided to collaborate so they can catalyse such synergies both between themselves and with universities in Greece and abroad. SEESOX’s and ELIAMEP’s joint endeavor will be resolutely comparative as well as cross-disciplinary, reflecting both the requirements of a highly advanced diaspora studies prospectus as well as the respective strengths of the two partners.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
396. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”
- Author:
- Kemal Kirisçi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
397. Turkey: A Problem Partner?
- Author:
- ELIAMEP
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- It was around the mid-2000s when Turkey—if only for a short period of time—promulgated the idea of “zero problems with neighbours”. At the time, Turkey was seeking positive reforms in all aspects of public life and a cooperative future with neighbouring countries based on mutual understanding and converging interests. Furthermore, Turkey imagined itself as a bridge between, not as a wall separating and isolating, different regions. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. For almost a decade now, Turkey has been reactionary in its treatment of its own citizens and solipsistic with regard to its neighbours. Democratic backsliding and human rights abuses inside Turkey have become the norm, while militarisation and unilateralism increasingly characterise its foreign policy choices. Its government actions have begun to resemble those of a rogue state. This report seeks neither to explain the intricacies of Erdoğan’s problematic behaviour towards its own people and the rest of the world, nor to denigrate Turkey’s standing. Rather, it aims to raise the alarm about the slippery slope Turkey finds itself on, hopefully well before his governance causes irreparable damage to the region. The report starts by presenting general aspects of Turkey’s relationship with international stakeholders, such as the EU and the US. It proceeds by mapping out internal developments that exemplify strong tendencies of democratic backsliding and human rights abuses. The third part focuses on regional aspects of Turkey’s foreign policy behaviour, starting with the most severe cases that epitomize the militarisation of its foreign policy and violations of international law. It concludes with various cases of political differences between Turkey and states on its periphery, which, combined with the other more severe cases described, demonstrate how Turkey’s foreign policy expectations of ‘zero problems with neighbours’ have turned into a ‘zero neighbours’ reality.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
398. EU-Turkey Economic Relations and the Customs Union: a rules-based approach
- Author:
- Dimitris Tsarouhas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Trade and economic relations remain the cornerstone of EU-Turkey relations. The Customs Union (CU) is the sole institutionalized instrument that remains important for both sides. Launching negotiations on how to update its content offers a set of fresh opportunities for the EU to reintroduce political as well as economic conditionality in its relations with Turkey. A step-by-step approach based on monitoring and benchmarking can enhance EU leverage vis á vis Turkey and allow the EU to escape a cycle of ineffective policy interventions on Turkey’s political trajectory. The CU can also become a vehicle to assist the democratic segments of Turkey’s civil society as well as those EU member states who have found themselves searching for an alternative to Turkey’s failed Europeanization.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Migration, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
399. Humanitarian VISAs
- Author:
- Eleni Kritikopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The X and X decision of the European Court of Justice highlighted the gap in current EU law regarding human rights protections in entry procedures. Currently over 90% of those granted refugee status in the EU arrive through irregular means. There is an increasing need for a new form of visa, specifically to accommodate humanitarian matters, which are not currently covered by the pre-existing Schengen rules. For limited numbers, consulates of EU states would be empowered to issue Visas for asylum seekers in order to legally cross EU borders to launch an asylum application. Research shows that the economic costs for the implementation of this humanitarian visa system would be minimal and that the political and humanitarian benefits would be significant.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Migration, European Union, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Europe
400. The EU-Turkey Visa Liberalization Saga: Lessons from the European Neighborhood
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Ayşe Tuba Uslu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This policy paper co-authored by Ioannis Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow of ELIAMEP and Head of its Turkey Programme, and Ayşe Tuba Uslu, Senior at the Department of International Relations of Bilkent University, lays out the main challenges for the successful conclusion of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue (VLD) between the European Union and Turkey. It examines the impact of democratic backsliding, the decline of the rule of law, fundamental rights and divergence in the legal framework regarding organized crime and anti-terrorism on the VLD and highlights the mistrust that has developed between the parties. Through a comparison between Ukrainian, Georgian, Moldovan and Turkish VLDs, it aims to highlight how the VLD could come to a successful conclusion.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Migration, Rule of Law, Visa, and Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Middle East, Georgia, and Mediterranean