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301. The Russian Economy Is Muddling Through the Sanctions War

Author:
Oleg Buklemishev
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The transatlantic campaign of sanctions against Russia after its aggression of Ukraine is unprecedented in scale and scope, involving not only dozens of democratic states but also many non-state actors. It imposes considerable barriers and additional cost to the functioning of the Russian economy, which is bound to undertake deep restructuring with far-reaching consequences for production and consumption processes. The current appreciation of the rouble and inflationary slowdown are not signs of improvement but rather the direct effects of the stabilisation measures undertaken and, in fact, bode ill for further economic development. Numerous problems have started to surface this summer and optimistic assessments on the basis of initial resilience of the Russian economy look premature. Russia currently lacks a strategic plan of economic restructuring under the new environment. The future course of events will depend on whether the private sector leads this restructuring with minimal losses or the government imposes its normative prospective, tilting the result farther from economic equilibrium.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

302. The Geopolitics of Clean Hydrogen – Opportunities and Challenges for Italy

Author:
Marco Giuli
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The emergence of clean hydrogen as an energy carrier promises to shape the future geography of the energy trade. Under growing contestation of interdependence, such a geography should be read through political lenses alongside commercial and technological ones. Generally, hydrogen is likely to reduce the geopolitical sensitivity of energy trade with respect to a fossil-fuel-based energy order by increasing the share of energy produced domestically, shifting geostrategic competition from a focus on grabbing resources to a focus on mastering technology and setting standards, and offering petrostates opportunities for economic diversification. Italy can exploit the opportunities offered by a hydrogen economy for enhancing its energy security and positioning in the regional energy trade. However, it should be careful with monitoring how geopolitical barriers such as regional instability may affect its hydrogen ambitions.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Trade, Hydrogen, Pipeline, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

303. A Scramble for Gas: Qatari LNG and EU Diversification Plans

Author:
Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Amidst a worsening geopolitical and energy crisis in Europe, the EU is scrambling to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as one component of its larger objective to reduce its overdependence on Russian gas. In 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia (140 bcm via pipeline and 15 bcm of LNG). Under its REPowerEU initiative, the European Commission aims to increase LNG imports to replace 50 bcm of Russian gas by the end of 2022.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Diversification, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Qatar

304. The Implications of the Ukraine War for Israel

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For Israel, this is evidence that its self-reliance doctrine must be nourished with no illusions about foreign support in times of crisis. Moreover, Turkey probably sees NATO more positively since it borders Russia, pushing Ankara toward the West.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

305. The “New Uzbekistan”: Turkey’s New Partner in the Pan-Turkist Organization of Turkic States

Author:
Hay Eytan Cohan Yanaroack
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Tashkent’s increasingly critical approach toward Russia and its deepening role in the Organization of Turkic States has positioned the country as Ankara’s most important bridgehead in Central Asia.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey

306. The differences between Western and non-Western US allies in the Ukraine war

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For mid-level regional powers, avoiding non-essential friction with a major power like Russia is seen as an imperative, particularly in a situation where consistent support from their US patron is by no means a given.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

307. Japan and the War in Ukraine

Author:
Eyal Ben-Ari
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Two weeks after the war began, Japan announced that its new National Security Strategy scheduled to be published this year would recategorize Russia from “partner” to “security challenge,” thus placing it alongside China and North Korea.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Europe, and Asia

308. What is the agenda for the Eastern Mediterranean?

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A more coherent common foreign policy agenda is needed to enhance the strategic significance of the Athens-Jerusalem-Nicosia partnership.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

309. British Pugwash Note on the Absence of Sole Purpose in NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
In June 2022 NATO members adopted an updated Strategic Concept (the preceding Concept having been adopted in 2010). There was reason to hope that in the updated Concept NATO members would envisage using nuclear weapons only in response to their first use by a nuclear-armed adversary. That reason lay in remarks made by President Biden when he was Barack Obama’s Vice-President. Notably in January 2017 he said: “Given our non-nuclear capacities and the nature of today´s threats, it is hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States would be necessary or would make sense; deterring, and, if necessary, retaliating against a nuclear attack should be the sole purpose of the US nuclear arsenal”. The adoption of Sole Purpose would be a useful nuclear risk reduction measure. Leaving open the option of using nuclear weapons in response to a non-nuclear attack on NATO entails the risk of nuclear escalation if the attacker is nuclear armed; and nuclear escalation entails the risk of global nuclear annihilation.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

310. Russia’s threat against the Jewish Agency is a Bargaining Measure

Author:
Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should prepare for a prolonged crisis. The Russians might want to delay or accelerate the legal process to exploit the elections period. The verdict will not constitute the final word. The government is advised to navigate the crisis behind the scenes: publicity might accelerate escalation.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Israel, and North America

311. Ukraine War Distracts US from China, Legitimizes Nuclear Bombs

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is distracting the US from the Chinese threat and erodes the nuclear taboo.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, Rivalry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, North America, and United States of America

312. The Libyan EEZ Challenge: Israel Should Reject Turkey’s Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The delineation of the Libyan and Turkish Exclusive Economic Zones was and remains essential not only for Israel and Egypt but also for others in the region who seek to curtail Erdogan’s ambitions and shore up Egypt’s economic and political stability.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean

313. It is in America’s Interest to End the War in Ukraine

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Continuing the war harms the West and endangers its battle to attain other critical strategic objectives.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

314. Ten Recommendations for Germany’s Feminist Development Policy

Author:
Ina Friesen and Alma Wisskirchen
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
In early 2022, Germany’s development minister Svenja Schulze announced the adoption of a feminist development policy. With this announcement, Germany joins a growing group of governments that have adopted or declared the adoption of an explicitly feminist perspective in their external policies. Drawing on these governments’ policies and the observations and recommendations by civil society and researchers, this Discussion Paper outlines ten key recommendations for Germany’s first feminist development policy. The first three recommendations focus on the conceptual foundation of the policy and lay out the importance of 1) an inclusive definition of gender, 2) a clarification of the feminist approach and the policy’s overall goal as well as 3) the need for an intersectional approach. The second set of recommendations concerns the implementation of the policy and stresses the importance of 4) a permanent cooperation with gender-focused and feminist organisations and 5) the necessity to increase funding for gender-related objectives in general and 6) for feminist organisations in particular. Further recommendations include 7) widening the range of sectors that target gender equality through a transformative approach and context-sensitive programming and by providing mechanisms to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the strategy’s goals, objectives and activities. The last three recommendations emphasise institutional aspects and the importance of 8) creating an institutional environment that best supports gender equality within the development ministry and its main implementing organisations, 9) the necessity of a coherent feminist approach between the different ministries, and 10) the importance of addressing possible challenges the ministry might face in the implementation of its feminist development policy.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

315. The EU-CEAP Impacts on Developing Countries: An Analysis of the Plastic Packaging, Electric Vehicles and Batteries Sectors

Author:
Jenny To
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The European Union Circular Economy Action Plan (EU-CEAP) is key to transitioning to a circular economy and climate neutrality under the EU Green Deal – and developing and emerging countries (DECs) play important roles. They are essential for primary material chains, for example, for electric vehicle batteries. DECs are also part of secondary material chains, and Europe relies on them to recycle its plastic packaging. Despite the crucial roles that DECs play in Europe’s transition to a circular economy, literature and policy discourses have not yet examined the EU-CEAP’s impact. This discussion paper fills this gap by outlining the EU-CEAP’s challenges and opportunities for DECs and presents recommendations for development cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, European Union, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, and Plastic
Political Geography:
Europe

316. Just Transitions: A Review of How to Decarbonise Energy Systems While Addressing Poverty and Inequality Reduction

Author:
Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Germany promotes “just transition” as a guiding principle for the global transition to a socially and environmentally sustainable economy that incorporates the necessary climate, environmental and energy policy measures. This includes the urgent transformation of economies to become emission neutral while ensuring a process whereby poverty and inequality are reduced, and no one is left behind. The German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), the World Bank and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) worked together to explore ways to implement the concept of just transition in German development cooperation. The two papers that have resulted from this process outline approaches to a “just transition for all” and highlight its potential to reduce poverty and inequality (SDG 1 and SDG 10). In recent decades, the interdependencies between social and ecological development have become clear: negative effects of climate change particularly affect vulnerable and marginalised groups living in poverty. At the same time, social inequalities contribute to an exacerbation of climate change. A just transition must effectively address the consequences at the international, national, regional and local levels. Both papers provide an overview of existing approaches and challenges to foster a “just transition for all”. They offer different but complementary perspectives on an increasingly important complex of topics. This first paper, by DIE, takes a broad perspective by considering the decarbonisation of the energy sector as a whole, outlining the connections between just transition, poverty and inequality, and exploring how to ensure a just transition (for both workers and consumers) through the use of different social protection mechanisms. It argues that it is possible to make energy transitions just, but that properly designed combinations of socio-economic and climate policies are needed. A second paper, by the World Bank, zooms in on the transition away from coal. It lays out key social and community impacts resulting from the decommissioning of coal assets, based on experience gained from World Bank operations and from industrialised countries, and articulates an enhanced approach to supporting the coal transition. Both provide practical recommendations for international development cooperation in general, and for German development cooperation in particular.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Inequality, Economy, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

317. Mine Action as a Confidence- and Security-building Measure in the OSCE Region

Author:
Claudia Ditel
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Mine action has the potential to incentivise confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs), because it could contribute to development and reconciliation through the creation of communities of practice among individuals from civil society and at the grassroots level as part of post-conflict reconstruction. Although many Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) participating States are contaminated by mines, mine action as a CSBM has scarcely been included in peace negotiations, because it is thought that it might hinder the peace process. Yet mine action, if “depoliticised”, could be implemented independently of peace negotiations through the creation of spaces for cooperation in demining projects of common interest to rival communities. The OSCE is well placed to propose these strategies, especially in Eastern Ukraine, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh, which are not only affected by protracted conflicts with limited engagement of the population in the peace process but are also highly contaminated by mines.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Violence, and Landmines
Political Geography:
Europe

318. Blockchain Technology: An Innovative Policy Tool for Enhancing Conventional Arms Control and Verification

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Blockchain represents an unprecedented opportunity for enhancing conventional arms control (CAC) and verification. Based on the principles of transparency, verifiability, and predictability, this state-of-the-art technology could build confidence and facilitate the implementation of arms control mechanisms. Blockchain-based so-called “smart contracts” have advantageous practical implications for CAC. They could improve the verification of countries’ compliance with their CAC obligations by enhancing monitoring procedures and could strengthen arms export controls by improving treaty signatories’ ability to monitor weapons and ammunition supply chains. Reinforcing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) framework for conventional ammunition control with a permissioned blockchain would provide greater confidentiality and improve monitoring and data verifiability, thus strengthening the OSCE’s CAC regimes.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Blockchain
Political Geography:
Europe

319. Commitment to Control Weaponised Artificial Intelligence: A Step Forward for the OSCE and European Security

Author:
Anna Nadibaidze
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The global debate on weaponised artificial intelligence (AI) often focuses on futuristic “killer robots”, which risks overlooking the fact that these technologies are already part of the security landscape. Diminishing human control over the use of force and the differences in states’ discourse pose a considerable risk for European security and stability. The impact of AI is not inevitable, and states should address this issue through political means, such as a political declaration with a commitment to ensuring human control over the use of force. With its inclusive membership, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) can and should become the platform through which its participating States can take a step forward in the global debate on weaponised AI.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and OSCE
Political Geography:
Europe

320. “Open” Telecom Networks (Open RAN): Towards a Reconfiguration of International Competition in 5G?

Author:
Mathilde Velliet
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In line with the anti-Huawei diplomatic campaign of the Trump and Biden administrations, the United States has promoted an alternative: Open RAN, a concept defined by "open" network architectures. At the intersection of 5G geopolitics and standards, what risks and opportunities does Open RAN present for European technological sovereignty? The Radio Access Network (RAN) is the radio part of a mobile telecommunications system that enables the connection between a mobile device (such as a phone or computer) and the core network. While traditionally a single vendor (such as Huawei, Ericsson, or Nokia) provides a “proprietary” or “closed” solution for this part of the network, Open RAN (Open Radio Access Network) is a concept describing disaggregated architectures that divide the RAN into several bricks connected by open interfaces. The objective is to allow the operator to buy these hardware and software bricks from various suppliers, and to choose freely the most suitable option for each part. In the current context of a concentrated 5G market, dominated by three major manufacturers and even facing the risk of an Ericsson-Nokia duopoly with the exclusion of Huawei from many countries, telecom operators emphasize the flexibility and diversification of suppliers allowed by Open RAN, which would allow both more innovation and cost reduction. In line with its diplomatic campaign against “unreliable” Chinese suppliers, the United States has actively promoted Open RAN as an alternative. However, Open RAN seems far from being a panacea for Europe: in addition to the difficulties that remain in terms of maturity, security, performance and transparency of the specification process, it risks increasing European dependence on foreign suppliers. Although Huawei is not part of the international bodies working on Open RAN (such as the Telecom Infra Project or the O-RAN Alliance), many companies close to the Chinese political and military authorities are. Beyond the question of supplier security, American lobbying is linked to the commercial opportunity that Open RAN represents for American companies, currently leaders in the cloud, software and generic hardware components…even though they do not have a major 5G champion. Open RAN is therefore an issue at the crossroads of the geopolitics of 5G and standards, to which the European Union is beginning to provide a common political and analytical response, despite the diversity of positions among member states.
Topic:
5G, Telecommunications, and International Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

321. The European Union Industrial Strategy: Reconciling Competition and Geoeconomic Challenges

Author:
Marie Krpata
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The EU’s basic assumptions, on which it grounds its economic and trade power, are being steadily cast into doubt. The EU’s main trade partners, the US and China, increasingly set their sights on securing their supply chains, which may further a potential decoupling. This shift is likely to be accelerated in the context of growing geopolitical instability. Multilateralism and international trade principles are increasingly challenged by a weakening of international institutions and the recourse to asymmetric market practices, while technological leadership will be key in the struggle for global leadership. Being fundamentally built on economic openness, the EU is comparatively ill-equipped to respond to these developments. Its biggest economy, Germany, is prompted to assert itself if it does not want to lose in competitiveness. While the EU is developing strategies, policies, and instruments to adapt to this change of circumstances and increase its resilience, a shift in mentalities, leaving behind political and economic short-term interests, will be necessary.
Topic:
European Union, Trade Policy, Industry, Supply Chains, Geoeconomics, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

322. Closing the Gap Between Citizen Participation and Mainstream Politics

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the last several years, citizen assemblies, juries, and panels have spread across Europe. Most of these have been run at the local or subnational level, a few at the national or even transnational level. Most have been called by public authorities, a smaller number created in more bottom-up fashion by civic groups. They all share a distinguishing feature: citizens are randomly selected to participate in debates about specific policies. In aggregate, these initiatives can be referred to as selection- or sortition-based participation. As this wave of sortition-based participation consolidates, attention has turned to its wider political effects. While there is generally much to celebrate about this rise in participation, there remains a widespread feeling that the practice is not yet strongly enough embedded in mainstream politics to move the needle on overall democratic quality. Indeed, experiences suggest that standard channels of decisionmaking and political debate often undercut the influence of sortition initiatives. This paper examines how sortition-based deliberation might be embedded more firmly and effectively within other democratic arenas. Its focus is not on the design and process of sortition forums themselves—many other publications have offered this level of evaluation in recent years.1 Rather, it explores options for building sortition-based forms of participation more fully into longer-standing channels of mainstream politics. If selection-based citizen participation is to have wider relevance to democratic renewal, it is important to identify the political factors that can either stifle or oxygenate its potential. This paper assesses what steps might be taken better to prevent politics from pushing sortition-based participation to the margins and what can be done to infuse politics more widely with the benefits of such participation. The first section of this paper distinguishes between two levels of embedding sortition-based participation. One relates to a relatively focused agenda of so-called institutionalization; the other to more general shifts in political dynamics. The paper then considers progress and obstacles to embedding sortition-based participation at each of these two levels—while suggesting that it is the second, wider political understanding that is especially important. The final section offers five guidelines for assessing how the gap between sortition-based participation and other sites of political activity might in the future be narrowed.
Topic:
Politics, Citizenship, and Participation
Political Geography:
Europe

323. Russia’s Wartime Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Military Impacts, Influences, and Implications

Author:
Jon Bateman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper examines the military effectiveness of Russia’s wartime cyber operations in Ukraine,1 the reasons why these operations have not had greater strategic impact, and the lessons applicable to other countries’ military cyber efforts. It builds on previous analyses by taking a more systematic and detailed approach that incorporates a wider range of publicly available data. A major purpose of this paper is to help bridge the divide between cyber-specific and general military analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war. Most analysis of Russian cyber operations in Ukraine has been produced by cyber specialists writing for their own field, with limited integration of non-cyber military sources and concepts. Conversely, leading accounts of the war as a whole include virtually no mention of cyber operations.2 To begin filling the gap, this paper places Russian cyber operations in Ukraine within the larger frame of Moscow’s military objectives, campaigns, and kinetic activities.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

324. Will France’s Africa Policy Hold Up?

Author:
Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During his first term, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to revitalize his country’s diplomatic outreach to countries throughout Africa. Some aspects of this pivot were designed to more directly address the legacy of French colonialism in Francophone countries. He also sensed that the growing stature of non-Western powers like China has given African counterparts greater latitude to pursue ties amid heightened diplomatic competition among a host of other countries both in Europe and elsewhere. In pursuing this strategy, Macron has sought to promote a vision of French diplomacy with Africa through greater foreign aid and more robust people-to-people ties grounded in a spirit of partnerships between equals. While Macron’s efforts have created an opening for renewed relationships, this pivot has not been as seamless as he had hoped. Bureaucratic inertia and stovepiping in French foreign policy circles have at times meant that implementation of these policies has lagged. In certain cases, Macron’s own nationalistic appeals during his recent reelection bid have appeared to undercut his attempts to make amends for France’s troubling colonial history. Meanwhile the French president’s attempts to deepen economic, people-to-people, and security ties in more equitable ways have fallen short of lofty expectations, with past practices proving harder than expected to jettison. For Macron’s ambitions for French relations with African countries to keep their momentum, the president and his team must take an earnest look at what has worked well and what can still be improved.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Diplomacy, Partnerships, Emmanuel Macron, and Degrowth
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

325. My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine

Author:
Denis Volkov and Andrei Kolesnikov
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Western governments, including the United States, immediately condemned what they described as “Vladimir Putin’s war.”1 Surely, this formulation was no accident. It was aimed, first and foremost, at drawing a distinction between the actions of the Kremlin and the attitudes of ordinary Russians. There was optimism that ordinary Russians would not countenance a war against a neighboring country.2 But hopes of Russian grassroots opposition to the war were swiftly dashed. Indeed, public opinion polls have consistently shown overwhelming support (70 percent or higher) for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine. Contrary to expectations, Putin’s popularity has also seen a boost, similar to what happened in the immediate wake of the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Partly in response to these indicators, figures like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have called for a visa ban for all Russian passport holders, with an exception for people whose safety is at risk or who are vulnerable to political persecution.3 According to Zelenskyy, “[T]he most important sanctions are to close the borders—because the Russians are taking away someone else’s land” and Russians should “live in their own world until they change their philosophy.” He added, “The population picked this government and they’re not fighting it, not arguing with it, not shouting at it.” Such sentiments are echoed in calls by some European politicians, such as Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, for an EU ban on tourist visas. “It’s not right that at the same time as Russia is waging an aggressive, brutal war of aggression in Europe, Russians can live a normal life, travel in Europe, be tourists. It’s not right,” Marin said in mid-August.4 At the same time, a careful reading of popular Russian attitudes toward the war reveals important nuances that all too often are overlooked. First and foremost is the fact that rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect. A more careful reading of sociological data, including conversations with focus group participants and quantitative research, presents a far more complex picture of Russian society.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Conflict, Vladimir Putin, Society, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

326. Iranian Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine and Nuclear Options

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Ebrahim Mohseni, and Clay Ramsay
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The current survey is an Update, rather than a comprehensive check on Iranian public attitudes. This interim report covers findings on two unfolding security challenges – Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Ukraine – and their potential interconnections.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Public Opinion, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Ukraine, and Middle East

327. So close and yet so far: the ability of mandatory disclosure rules to crack down on offshore tax evasion

Author:
Elisa Casi, Mohammed Mardan, and Rohit Reddy Muddasani
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We study the short-term effect of the introduction of the mandatory disclosure programme for aggressive tax arrangements by focusing on the one introduced in May 2018 under Council Directive 2018/288/EU (or DAC6). Employing bilateral data on cross-border deposits, we study the effect of this new disclosure requirement on cross-border tax evasion. Our results show a reduction of cross-border deposits in EU countries with strong enforcement, captured by large monetary penalties for misreporting. At the same time, we document a relocation of income and wealth to countries with limited intermediary reporting obligations. Finally, we detect a shortterm increase of US$14 billion in cross-border deposits held in countries offering citizenship/residence by investment programmes, suggesting the use of these schemes as regulatory arbitrage to circumvent the disclosure mandated under DAC6. We provide timely and relevant evidence contributing to the debate on international administrative cooperation to reduce cross-border tax evasion.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Banking, Tax Evasion, and Administrative Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

328. Will economic statecraft threaten western currency dominance? Sanctions, geopolitics, and the global monetary order

Author:
Carla Norrlof
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The return of great power rivalry is stoking renewed fears of weakening Western currency dominance. Financial sanctions are becoming the preferred economic tool for accomplishing geopolitical goals. These instruments are especially popular with the United States and Europe. In response, rival great powers, notably China and Russia, are diversifying away from Western currencies and developing counterstrategies to maintain economic and foreign policy autonomy. As other countries are hit by increasingly punishing Western sanctions, the incentive to join Russia and China’s alternative international monetary order increases. New analysis, published in this report, shows early signs that some countries may be trying to diversify away from the dollar. A growing circle of countries attempting to evade the Western-centric financial and currency order may over time erode the dollar and the euro’s sizeable lead, though will likely fall well short of ending their global dominance. This report analyzes these trends and quantifies the extent of reserve diversification following Russia’s 2022 war on Ukraine. It also assesses the polarity of the international currency order since the onset of the euro in 2002. Reserve diversification out of the dollar, and into the euro, has been modest, though Chinese renminbi reserves grew after Russia’s February offensive in Ukraine. Dollar unipolarity declined acutely in 2017 as the number of countries sanctioned by the United States increased and the US President Donald J. Trump threatened to revoke alliance commitments. Using economic statecraft while retaining global economic influence will require the United States to keep its economic house in order and allies close, if the current unipolar currency order is to survive.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

329. Privacy in cross-border digital currency: A transatlantic approach

Author:
Giulia Fanti and Nadia Pocher
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As a growing number of countries explore Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) for the domestic context, multi-country cross-border CBDCs pilots are also proliferating. Cross-border CBDCs could make cross-border payments faster, cheaper, and simpler. However, for any cross-border CBDC to unlock these benefits and be widely adopted, it must address key concerns, chief among them risks around privacy and transparency of data. This article illustrates how various technical design choices can affect the privacy and transparency of cross-border CBDCs. For instance, architectural choices about the structure of a cross-border CBDC and representational choices about how transactions are encoded in the underlying software can have far-reaching implications for privacy and transparency—both in a domestic context and for cross-border transactions. Many of the cross-border CBDC pilot studies to date have (understandably) adopted the technical designs provided by enterprise distributed ledger platforms. However, some of these designs make tradeoffs regarding privacy, efficiency, and/or security. Whether these tradeoffs are acceptable is a matter of policy, and requires coordination between different regulators and central banks. In view of these implications—and some of the corresponding tensions that arise—we argue that the US and the EU should work together alongside other partners to create the technological and regulatory environment to enable privacy-preserving cross-border CBDCs. The US and the EU should seize the emergence of CBDCs as an opportunity to finally establish a transatlantic privacy framework, and clarify its interplay with the prevention of money laundering and financing of terrorism (AML/CFT/CPF). More broadly, both should harness the clout of their combined financial systems to develop digital asset regulation and standards with a global reach and democratic values. These regulatory developments would not only streamline regulatory guidelines, but they could also directly impact and ease the technical development of a cross-border CBDC.
Topic:
Privacy, Currency, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

330. Europol-Israel Police Operational Agreement: Enhanced cooperation with EU in combatting crime and terrorism

Author:
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The Israeli Police and Europol, the European Union’s police agency, have been conducting negotiations over an operational agreement for several years. In September there was signing of end of negotiations, but in December the Council of the European Union decided to re-open the talks. In a global world where crime and terrorism cross borders, countries need to strengthen cooperation among themselves. Such inter-police cooperation takes on a unique form in the EU. The operational agreement between Israel’s Police and Europol can have considerable importance in contributing to the parties’ ability to deal with terror and crime. This paper will review Europol, its cooperation with Israel’s police and other enforcement agencies, including the negotiated agreement, the motivations for upgrading relations with Israel and the benefits and challenges of doing so.
Topic:
Crime, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Police, and Europol
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

331. Leadership in European Digital Policy: Future Role and Direction for the D9+ Group

Author:
Fredrik Philipp, Philipp Lamprecht, Erik van der Marel, Vanika Sharma, and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
In this paper, we will discuss how Europe makes digital policy and how its digital economic performance can be improved. The focus is on the D9+ initiative. Launched in 2016 on the initiative of former Swedish trade minister, Ann Linde, nine countries with a particular interest in matters of the digital economy met to learn from each other and seek common ground on policy issues. On occasions, the D9+ Group has issued joint statements relating to regulatory initiatives in the EU. Since its founding, the group has expanded, and now also includes “guest countries”, but it remains fundamentally an initiative of small and mid-sized open-oriented economies with a strong interest to exploit the economic power of digitalisation and new emerging technologies. The D9+ initiative is important and this paper argues that its work should expand and focus on expanding the scale and scope of digital technological change in the European economy while addressing risks that an over-powering regulatory approach to digital policies in Europe reduces the benefits of the digital transformation. Importantly, the D9+ Group has a special interest to promote digital openness and avoid the agenda for technology sovereignty and strategic autonomy sliding into digital protectionism. Finding the right direction of policy is of fundamental importance for Europe’s long-run economic growth, and the D9+ Group should take a leadership role.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Leadership, Economic Growth, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

332. A Compass to Guide EU Policy in Support of Business Competitiveness

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Vanika Sharma, Elena Sisto, and Erik van der Marel
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The EU agenda for improving competitiveness is missing in action. Economic competitiveness has been a central plank in the development of the European Union – a relentless quest for policies that lead to more prosperity and that make European companies in world markets more successful. However, since the end of the Lisbon Agenda in 2010, economic competitiveness seems to have fallen off the EU map. This Agenda had its flaws, but it rightly sought to make Europe “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-economy in the world”. The impression now is that Europe is on the retreat and the current European Commission is the first without a strategy to strengthen competitiveness at the EU level since the early 1990s. Hopefully, a course correction may now be on its way. Ursula von der Leyen has promised a “competitiveness check” on new EU policy. With the strong economic headwinds facing Europe and the world, the EU needs to pursue structural economic reforms that raise productivity and growth.
Topic:
European Union, Business, Regional Economy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

333. The Business Case for the Sustainable Development Goals: An Empirical Analysis of 21 Danish Companies' Engagement with the SDGs

Author:
Michael W. Hansen, Henrik Gundelach, and Erik Johnson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:
This paper explores why business engage with the SDG agenda, with a view to understanding the business case for the SDGs. Building on and extending the responsibility literature’s discussion of the business case for responsibility, the paper develops a conceptual framework for analyzing why business engage with the SDGs. This framework is employed to analyze why a sample of 21 Danish companies decided to engage with the SDG agenda. The analysis finds that most companies view the SDGs as a platform for achieving rather conventional business goals such as mitigating risk, saving costs, and differentiating products and services. However, in a few cases, companies use the SDGs as a lever for carving out uncontested positions in future markets. The paper concludes that companies overwhelmingly view the SDGs as a business opportunity rather than as a business responsibility, something that fundamentally may distinguish the SDG agenda from previous responsibility agendas. The paper fills a gap in the extant literature on business responsibility by developing and validating a classification of the business case for the SDGs based on economic value drivers, and by deepening the empirical understanding of, what precisely this business case may be.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Social Responsibility
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

334. Cyberattacks Integral to Russia's Political and Military Strategies

Author:
Aleksandra Kozioł
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
To destabilise democratic countries that support Ukraine, Russia employs cyberattacks on the target state’s public institutions and critical infrastructure. These activities have clearly intensified since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 and is in line with the implementation of Russian military strategy. In this context, it would be beneficial within the EU and NATO to develop joint action plans to respond to future threats in cyberspace.
Topic:
NATO, Infrastructure, European Union, Cybersecurity, Cyberspace, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

335. The Schengen Zone: While Croatia Joins, Further Enlargement Faces Challenges

Author:
Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In December, EU interior ministers unanimously supported the expansion of the Schengen zone to include Croatia. At the same time, the Council did not agree on the membership of Romania and Bulgaria. The former was opposed by Austria, and the latter by both Austria and the Netherlands. Although Croatia’s smooth integration into Schengen may weaken the arguments of sceptics of further enlargement, without deep reforms of the entire system and the EU’s migration policy, it will be very difficult to obtain consent for membership of other candidates.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, Schengen, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Croatia

336. Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine

Author:
Maria Piechowska
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.
Topic:
Refugees, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

337. Cooperation and Peril: Germany Attempts a Policy Balance with China

Author:
Łukasz Jasiński
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the resulting disruption of supply chains have intensified the ongoing debate in Germany over the preferred shape of German-Chinese relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government sees China as both a partner and rival. Reducing dependence on China is challenging due to its scale and the strength of the pro-China business lobby. This unsteady position will cause tensions in relations with partners, including the U.S., and conflicts within the governing coalition. Germany will continue to develop trade relations with China while blocking Chinese investment in critical sectors.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Trade, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Germany

338. GCC Countries, Seeking Food Security, Eye Agricultural Investments

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The growing consumption of food in the Gulf states is leading to the acquisition of foreign farmlands. This practice increases the Gulf states’ influence in African countries and the European neighbourhood. The competitiveness of their agricultural sector is also growing in relation to the less innovative European agriculture thanks to the development of technologies responding to difficult climatic conditions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Investment, Innovation, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

339. Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.
Topic:
Energy Policy, European Union, Gas, and Diversification
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa

340. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

Author:
Przemysław Biskup
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth

341. India Emerges as a Key Power and Important Partner for the EU in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
India’s commissioning of its second aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, in September this year reaffirms the country’s aim to play a leading role in the Indo-Pacific. The country’s importance in the region will depend mainly on the course of the India-China rivalry, an increase in its economic potential, and the support provided to it by foreign partners. The convergence of goals in the Indo-Pacific strengthens India’s partnership with the U.S. and opens up opportunities for intensifying cooperation with the EU, especially in terms of connectivity, climate change, and the development of capacity in maritime domain awareness.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific

342. Right-Wing Coalition Wins Parliamentary Elections in Italy

Author:
Łukasz Maślanka
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The elections to Italy’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate on 25 September were won by the Centre-Right coalition led by the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party headed by Giorgia Meloni. The winning party’s won over voters by its decision to remain in opposition to the government of Mario Draghi, which was supported by all other parties. The right-wing’s victory was also facilitated by the inability of the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5S) to form a coalition, which split the votes of left-wing voters. The biggest challenge for the FdI-led coalition will be to simultaneously maintain the support of the voters, good relations with the EU, and the confidence of the financial markets.
Topic:
European Union, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

343. Space Technologies Key to the EU's Fight Against Climate Change

Author:
Aleksandra Kozioł
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Launched in March 2022, the Destination Earth initiative to create a digital model of the Earth confirms the importance of space technologies in the EU’s green and digital transformations. The consequences of climate change, such as droughts, fires, and floods, reduce the security of citizens and cause economic losses. The dissemination of applications using satellite data will increase the effectiveness of climate action and sustainable development in the EU.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

344. Digitalisation for Sustainable Infrastructure: The Road Ahead

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In today’s tumultuous and fast-changing times, digitalisation and technology are game changers in a wide range of sectors and have a tremendous impact on infrastructure. Roads, railways, electricity grids, aviation, and maritime transport are deeply affected by the digital and technological transition, with gains in terms of competitiveness, cost-reduction, and safety. Digitalisation is also a key tool for fostering global commitment towards sustainability, but the race for digital infrastructure is also a geopolitical one. As the world’s largest economies are starting to adopt competitive strategies, a level playing field appears far from being agreed upon. Why are digitalisation and technology the core domains of global geopolitical competition? How are they changing the way infrastructure is built, operated, and maintained? To what extent will road, rail, air, and maritime transport change by virtue of digitalisation, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things? How to enhance cyber protection for critical infrastructure? What are the EU’s, US’ and China's digital strategies?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, Sustainability, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

345. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade

Author:
Zsolt Darvas and Catarina Martins
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
We study the economic implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. We find that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and the sanctions were not the most important drivers. Nevertheless, International Monetary Fund forecast revisions from October 2021 to October 2022 suggest that the volume of global trade in goods and services declined by 3.4 percent, energy prices increased by about 100 percent, and the prices of non-energy commodities by 8 percent. The war could be an important driver of these forecast revisions, though other factors were also at play. While forecasts for important industrial production input costs were not revised, soaring energy prices deteriorated the trade balance of countries importing energy. Only half of the increase in Russia’s trade surplus was related to soaring energy prices. The other half resulted from the collapse of Russian imports, which will likely undermine the Russian economy’s productive capacity over time. Falling Russian exports of goods other than mineral fuels suggest Russia’s productive capacity has already weakened. Russia’s trade has been reoriented from advanced economies to China, India and Turkey, but this has only partially compensated for the decline in trade with advanced countries. We find that sanctions had an impact on trade. There is no evidence of European and US companies circumventing sanctions by re-routing sanctioned goods to Russia via China and Turkey. The UK and the US have already stopped importing fossil fuels from Russia, and such imports by the EU have declined. With the EU’s Russian seaborne crude petroleum import ban taking effect in December 2022 and the refined petroleum ban coming to effect in February 2023, Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports to the EU are set to shrink significantly, with limited options for redirecting exports to other countries. The three main policy-relevant implications from our research are: The war and the sanctions are not the most important drivers of energy price; The direct aim of sanctions seems to have been achieved; The capacity of the Russian state to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink. The dataset used for most charts of this working paper is regularly updated and is available in the Russian foreign trade tracker
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Fossil Fuels, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

346. You’ll never talk alone: what media narratives on European reforms reveal about a polity in the making

Author:
Emmanuel Mourion-Druol, Henrik Müller, Giuseppe Porcaro, and Tobias Schmidt
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper analyses the discourse since 2001 in three leading national business newspapers about reforms in the European Union: Handelsblatt (Germany), Il Sole (Italy) and Les Echos (France). We collected and organised a large dataset of articles published in these three newspapers. We used topic modelling to identify latent topics across articles. Based on this database, we then addressed four research questions and found: a relative degree of synchronisation of reform debates across the three countries; comparable reporting patterns, especially around the main crises; a greater degree of direction of the debate towards European issues over national issues in Germany than in France and Italy; and the tentative emergence of a shared narrative about crises. Finally, we highlight that bringing conflict and contestation back into European discussions may help stimulate wider interest in European matters.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Media, and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe

347. Risks to job quality from digital technologies: are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge?

Author:
Janine Berg, Francis Green, Laura Nurski, and David Spencer
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
We examine the job quality effects of new digital technologies in Europe, using the framework of seven job quality ‘domains’: pay, working time quality, prospects, skills and discretion, work intensity, social environment and physical environment. The theoretical effects from new technology are ambivalent for all domains. Data on robot shocks matched to the European Working Conditions Surveys for 2010 and 2015 is used to generate empirical estimates, which show significant aggregate negative effects in three domains, and a positive effect in one. Some negative effects are enhanced where there is below-median collective bargaining. In light of these analyses, and in order to think through the challenge of regulating the development and implementation of all forms of digital technologies, we review regulations in several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we advance the general hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application to the regulation of job quality of national and supra-national data protection legislation. In these ways, the paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, to a consideration of job quality more broadly.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Employment, and Work
Political Geography:
Europe

348. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Its Implications for Asia

Author:
Hubert Fallmann, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
To achieve a climate-neutral European Union (EU) by 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement, the EU needs to more ambitiously reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the coming decade and update its climate and energy policy framework. The recently adopted European Climate Law sets a new EU target for 2030 of reducing GHG emissions by at least 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. To deliver this, the European Commission has proposed a “Fit for 55” package containing, among other initiatives, legislative proposals for a revision of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with a more stringent emissions cap and a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM will put a carbon price on imports of a targeted selection of goods with the aim of 1). ensuring that ambitious climate action in the EU does not lead to carbon leakage, and 2). encouraging partner countries to implement similar carbon-pricing policies. This policy, even at its proposal stage, has created a significant impact worldwide in supporting the uptake of carbon-pricing policies and in encouraging consideration of similar carbon border adjustment policies. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Its Implications for Asia investigates the details of the EU’s proposed CBAM and its specific implications for companies and governments in Asia.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

349. Characterisation of Danish agricultural investments in Tanzania and Uganda

Author:
Rikke Broegaard, Helle Monk Ravnborg, Evelyne Lazaro, Teddy Nakanwagi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper presents key characteristics of each of the six cases including main crop focus, size and business model, as well as types of investors, their investment approach and the factors that motivate them. It also presents the different objectives that the investors have expressed wanting to achieve. As most of the investments involve private funds, it is reasonable to expect that one important goal is to ensure a viable economy in the investment. However, in addition to an economically sound investment, all of the investors behind these six cases have ambitions regarding ways in which they see themselves - through the investment - as contributors towards a positive societal development in the area of the investment. Thus, the paper presents the different ways the investors see their investments contributing to development in the area. The paper is based on interviews with the investors and field work in the areas of investments.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Food, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Europe, Denmark, Tanzania, and Africa

350. The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis

Author:
Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the cyclicality of fiscal policy (discretionary versus automatic) for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021 by paying special attention to the Covid-19 crisis. We find evidence that discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more countercyclical than before – in particular in the Eurozone. We do not find comparable evidence for more counter-cyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis, which lends support to the argument that discretionary fiscal policy responded especially forceful to stabilise the economy during the Covid-19 crisis. Furthermore, automatic fiscal stabilisers contributed significantly to counter-cyclical stabilisation, although their performance over 2020-2021 was more in line with the past than for discretionary fiscal policy. Overall, fiscal policy in non-Eurozone advanced countries is more countercyclical than in the Eurozone. However, the cyclicality varies markedly across countries. Our findings shed light on how the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy varies across countries and time.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Euro
Political Geography:
Europe

351. Determinants and Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Austria: Spillovers to Novel Innovative Environmental Technologies

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi and Branimir Jovanovic
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This study investigates the determinants of FDI in Austria, as well as their spillovers to innovating technologies, productivity, and employment, using firm-level data, for the period 2008-2018. The findings point out that a decrease in the costs of trade increases investment in foreign-owned subsidiaries in Austria, and that FDI is pre-dominantly carried out in industries characterised by greater capital-intensity, higher wages, more agglomeration and regional concentration. Furthermore, FDI is higher in regions with a larger GDP and with a larger share of the population with upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education. The study also finds that there are positive spillovers of FDI to the domestic economy, which are strongest and most positive for innovative activities in environmental technologies. In other words, FDI helps Austrian firms to become more innovative in major environmental technologies. Such innovative efforts are best supported at the firm-level by supporting the total assets and investment of domestic firms, and at the regional level by increasing the share of the population with higher levels of education and employing more R&D personnel. The active presence of innovative foreign MNEs that enjoy extensive technological capacities, high-skilled labour, experienced management, and large-scale resources are also conducive to innovative activities.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

352. Demography, Capital Accumulation and Growth

Author:
Robert Stehrer and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Europe will be challenged by demographic changes over the next few decades, even under favourable assumptions about fertility and migration, but the economic effects are not yet fully understood. This paper studies the effects of population ageing on economic growth, capital deepening and robotisation in 27 European Union (EU) labour markets. First, we econometrically assess the effects of ageing and potential labour market shortages on growth. Second, we test the hypothesis of whether ageing leads to faster adoption of new technologies. We distinguish between various capital asset types, including non-ICT and ICT capital, tangible and intangible capital and the adoption of robots. The analysis is based on Eurostat, the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data. Results indicate that ageing and demographic changes might contribute to secular stagnation, which decelerates the adoption of new technologies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Aging, Labor Market, and Capital Accumulation
Political Geography:
Europe

353. EU-Azerbaijan Economic Relations: New Perspectives and Targets

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The study is an example of the series on issues analyzing the EU-Azerbaijan economic relations which can be considered a step forward to empower economic approach in the policy-making process aiming to provide an alternative view in addressing current challenges and developments in Azerbaijan. The European Union’s relations with Azerbaijan have been formulated based on the EU-Azerbaijan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement which entered into force since 1999. In February 2017, the EU and Azerbaijan began negotiations on a new framework agreement designed to enhance the political dialogue, trade and mutually beneficial cooperation covering a wide range of economic aspects. One of the most important strategies of EU in the energy policy is to ensure energy security through diversification of energy routes. Azerbaijan is a strategically important energy partner for the EU and plays a significant role in bringing Caspian energy resources to the EU market. In 2018, the EU and Azerbaijan endorsed joint Partnership Priorities, along the four Eastern Partnership priorities that accompany the political dialogue and economic cooperation….
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

354. World Economy Winter 2022: Strong headwinds for global economic activity

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

355. German Economy Winter 2022: Inching through the energy crisis

Author:
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Sonnenberg, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Vincent Stamer, and Timo Hoffmann
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by so-called price brakes. Overall, inflation in 2023 will be much lower at 5.4 percent than we had expected in our autumn forecast (8.7 percent). Although real disposable income and, as a result, private consumption are likely to decrease next year, the decline will be much smaller than had been expected a few months ago. As a result, we now expect a slight increase in GDP of 0.3 percent for 2023 (autumn: -0.7 percent). In 2024, GDP is expected to grow somewhat more strongly again at 1.3 percent (autumn: 1.7 percent). The labour market is robust despite the economic slowdown, partly because companies are still desperately seeking skilled workers. The public fiscal balance is likely to deteriorate significantly in 2023 due to the aid packages in response to the energy crisis and displays a deficit of around 4 percent relative to GDP. With the expiry of the aid packages, the deficit will decrease again in 2024.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Budget, Business, Labor Market, Energy Crisis, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

356. World Economy Autumn 2022: Global growth falters

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still available to mitigate the adverse impact to some extent. At the same time financial conditions have also deteriorated as central banks tightened their policies. In China, the strict zero-covid policy and problems in the real estate sector are slowing economic activity. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further. We have, again, lowered our forecast and are now expecting global output to increase by only 2.9 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year (calculated on a purchasing power parity basis). The forecast assumes that commodity prices will gradually decline in line with forward prices, which will over time reduce the upward pressure on prices and provides the foundations for an economic upturn in 2024. However, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into consumer prices is probably not yet complete and wage increases are likely to intensify in many countries. Consequently, underlying inflation is likely to remain higher than in the years before the Covid crisis and remain above central bank targets over the forecast horizon.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Business, COVID-19, Zero-COVID, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

357. Why do Preferences for Redistribution Differ Across Countries?

Author:
Gianluca Grimalda, Francesco Farina, Anna Conte, and Ulrich Schmidt
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We test for different theories purporting to explain cross-country differences in income redistribution through standardized experimental choices. US Americans and Italians demand less redistribution than Norwegians and Germans, regardless of whether self-interest is relevant. Those earning (or expecting to earn) below-median incomes behave as "libertarians" more frequently in the US and Italy than in Germany and Norway. Above-the-median earners behave similarly across countries. Higher overconfidence by US Americans and Italians further reduces their demand for redistribution under uncertainty. The "Prospect of Upward Mobility" hypothesis holds similarly in all countries. US Americans do not reward individual merit more than others.
Topic:
Economic Mobility, Redistribution, Income Distribution, and Behavioral Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, North America, and United States of America

358. Regional Deprivation and Populism - Evidence from Germany and the U.S.

Author:
Michael Bayerlein
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
A widely held view is that increasing globalisation and inequality are fostering support for populist actors. Surprisingly, when focusing on Germany and the U.S., populist voting is highest in less globalised regions with rather equal income distributions. Addressing this puzzle, I ask how the regional variance in populist voting can be explained. In my answer, I introduce the concept of spatial inequality, which describes the regional inequality within countries, and construct a measure of public goods scarcity. I argue that the spatial inequality induced feeling of being left behind is positively correlated with populist voting and that this effect is mitigated by public goods provision. Using county level data to develop spatial inequality and public good scarcity indices, I can provide empirical support for these arguments. The findings have important implications for understanding the sub-national variance in populist voting and the role of relative economic deprivation as well as public goods provision.
Topic:
Globalization, Inequality, Populism, Voting, Regional Economy, and Public Goods
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

359. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

Author:
Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

360. How to make I.T. in Greek Manufacturing: Evidence and Policy Recommendations

Author:
Sofia Anyfantaki
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece has so far failed to shift its production structure towards more complex, high value-added activities, incorporating knowledge-intensive practices. Given the country’s low performance in innovation and knowledge diffusion relative to EU peers, we focus on two specific problem areas of Greek industry: skills and management practices. First, we provide an in-depth look at skills indicators to identify the scope for action, particularly in addressing mismatch. Second, we use firm-level data from the World Management Survey to give an overview of management practices in Greek industry and explore the quality of these practices and their association with productivity. We have two novel findings: first, we document that Greece has the highest overskilling for professional occupations in the OECD; second, we show that Greek firms do best in areas requiring unitary decision making, and worst in areas requiring teamwork and synergies. We complement our analysis with data from a new survey and examine structural characteristics of innovation and technology adoption. The collection of our empirical findings provides valuable input into concrete policy proposals to increase productivity in Greek manufacturing.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Innovation, Industry, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

361. From Media-Party Linkages to Ownership Concentration Causes of Cross-National Variation in Media Outlets’ Economic Positioning

Author:
Erik Neimanns and Nils Blossey
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
A sizable literature on media bias suggests that media coverage is frequently biased towards certain political and economic positions. However, we know little about what drives variation in political and ideological bias in news coverage across countries. In this paper, we argue that increasingly commercialized and concentrated media markets are likely to be associated with media coverage leaning more favorably towards economically more rightwing positions. Media bias should reflect the preferences of media owners and should be a result of a reduced diversity of news media content. In contrast, where media outlets continue to be oriented more closely along partisan lines, often referred to as political parallelism, bias on economic issues should be more likely to cancel out at the aggregate level. To test these claims, we combine expert survey data on partisan attachments of media outlets, party ideologies, and media ownership concentration for twenty-four European countries. Results from multilevel regression models support our theoretical expectations. With media framing potentially affecting individual-level preferences and perceptions, high and rising levels of media ownership concentration may help to explain why governments in the affluent Western democracies often do remarkably little to counter trends of rising income inequality.
Topic:
Politics, Media, News Analysis, and Bias
Political Geography:
Europe

362. Operationalizing Growth Models

Author:
Lucio Baccaro and Sinisa Hadziabdic
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on importadjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the “drivers” of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economy, Economic Growth, Exports, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

363. The Rise and Fall of Social Housing? Housing Decommodification in Long-Run Perspective

Author:
Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, and Sarah Hellmüller
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The comparative study of housing decommodification lags behind classical welfare state research, while housing research itself is rich in homeownership studies but lacks comparative accounts of private and social rentals due to missing comparative data. Building on existing works and various primary sources, this study presents a new collection of up to forty-eight countries’ social housing shares in stock and new construction since the first housing laws around 1900. The interpolated benchmark time series generally describe the rise and fall of social housing across a residual, a socialist, and a Northern-European housing group. The decline was steeper than for the classical welfare state, but the degree of erosion was surprisingly small in some countries where public housing associations remained resilient. Within the broader housing welfare state, social housing correlates positively with rent regulation and allowances, but negatively with homeownership subsidies and liberal mortgage regulation. A multivariate analysis shows that social housing is rather explained by housing shortages and complementarities with rental and welfare policies than by typical welfare state theories (GDP, political parties). Generally, the paper shows that conventional housing typologies are difficult to defend over time and argues more generally for including housing decommodification in welfare state research.
Topic:
Public Policy, Housing, and Welfare State
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

364. Factsheet: Karl Nehammer

Author:
Karl Nehammer
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Karl Nehammer is the current Chancellor of Austria. Three days prior to being sworn in as Chancellor on December 6, 2021, he became the managing chairman of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). Previously, he served as the Minister of the Interior from 2020 to 2021, General Secretary of the ÖVP from 2018 to 2020, and a member of the National Council from 2017 to 2020. He has been a key figure in supporting anti-Muslim policies.
Topic:
Politics, Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Karl Nehammer
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

365. Factsheet: Susanne Raab

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Susanne Raab is the current Minister of Women and Integration of Austria. She joined the government of Sebastian Kurz of the Austrian People’s Party, which was responsible for many anti-Muslim legislations that have meanwhile been rescinded by various courts. Raab has been a key figure in supporting anti-Muslim policies in Austria.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Susanne Raab
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

366. Factsheet: Ednan Aslan

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Ednan Aslan is a Turkish-German Professor of Islamic Religious Education at the University of Vienna in Austria. Aslan is frequently interviewed by mainstream media as an expert on Islam and a critical voice on Muslims. He has been a vocal supporter of the Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s anti-Muslim policies, and also served in the Documentation Center Political Islam, a federally funded center that monitors, surveils, and maps Muslims in Austria.
Topic:
Surveillance, Islamophobia, Political Islam, and Ednan Aslan
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

367. US-Russian Contention in Cyberspace: Are Rules of the Road Necessary or Possible?

Author:
Pavel Sharikov
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
In recent years, as news of U.S.-Russian tensions in the cyber domain has dominated headlines, some strategic thinkers have pointed to the need for a bilateral cyber “rules of the road” agreement. American political scientist Joseph Nye, a former head of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, wrote in 2019 that, even “if traditional arms-control treaties are unworkable” in cyberspace, “it may still be possible to set limits on certain types of civilian targets, and to negotiate rough rules of the road that minimize conflict.” Robert G. Papp, a former director of the CIA’s Center for Cyber Intelligence, has likewise argued that “even a cyber treaty of limited duration with Russia would be a significant step forward.” On the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin himself has called for “a bilateral intergovernmental agreement on preventing incidents in the information space,” comparing it to the Soviet-American Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents on and Over the High Seas. Amid joint Russian-U.S. efforts, the Working Group on the Future of U.S.-Russia Relations recommended several elements of an agreement in 2016, among them that Russia and the U.S. agree “on the types of information that are to be shared in the event of a cyberattack” (akin to responses to a bio-weapons attack) and prohibit both “automatic retaliation in cases of cyberattacks” and “attacks on elements of another nation’s core internet infrastructure.” Most recently, in June 2021, a group of U.S., Russian and European foreign-policy officials and experts called for “cyber nuclear ‘rules of the road.’”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

368. Pork, infrastructure and growth: Evidence from the Italian railway expansion

Author:
Roberto Bonfatti, Giovanni Facchini, Alexander Tarasov, Gian Luca Tedeschi, and Cecilia Testa
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper studies the role played by politics in shaping the Italian railway network, and its impact on long-run growth patterns. Examining a large state-planned railway expansion that took place during the second half of the 19th century in a recently unified country, we first study how both national and local political processes shaped the planned railway construction. Exploiting close elections, we show that a state-funded railway line is more likely to be planned for construction where the local representative is aligned with the government. Furthermore, the actual path followed by the railways was shaped by local pork-barreling, with towns supporting winning candidates more likely to see a railway crossing their territory. Finally, we explore the long-run effects of the network expansion on economic development. Employing population and economic censuses for the entire 20th century, we show that politics at a critical juncture played a key role in explaining the long-run evolution of local economies.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Infrastructure, and Railways
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

369. Improving access to the EU’s market for services

Author:
Marc Luban
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Regulatory heterogeneity between Israel and its key trading partners restricts the potential for bilateral trade. Approximation of the European Union’s regulatory standards would contribute to increased trade and investment. Upgrading Israel’s 1995 trade agreement with the EU could provide the optimal response to the regulatory heterogeneity and improve mutual access to markets for services.
Topic:
Markets, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Israel

370. COVID-19 financial aid and productivity: has support been well spent?

Author:
Carlo Altomonte, Lionel Fontagné, Maria Demertzis, and Steffen Müller
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Most European Union countries have made good progress with vaccinating their populations against COVID-19 and are now seeing a rebound in economic activity. While the scarring effects of the crisis and the long-term implications of the pandemic are only partially understood, the effects of support given to firms can be evaluated in order to help plan the removal of crisis support. European regions and countries that depend heavily on services requiring physical proximity have been hit hardest by COVID-19-related measures. But these services sectors tend also to be the smallest and least-productive in any economy, implying that, coming into the crisis, the highest shares of zombie firms were in these sectors. Reliance on physical proximity and the higher incidence of zombies to start with have combined to make those services-dependent economies particularly vulnerable to any attempt to remove the support put in place during the pandemic. The evidence shows that the main goal of the provision of support during the COVID-19 crisis, namely to protect employment, has been achieved. However, the evidence is varied on how efficiently this was done, in terms of helping firms that have a good chance of surviving, while not supporting those that will in any case exit. An analysis of France, Germany and Italy shows the potential for ‘cleansing effects’ in that it was the least-productive firms that have been affected most by the crisis. While support was generally not targeted at protecting good firms only, financial support went by and large to those with the capacity to survive and succeed. Labour schemes have been effective in protecting employment.
Topic:
European Union, COVID-19, and Financial Aid
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, and Italy

371. The Digital Markets Act (DMA): Between European autonomy and transatlantic cooperation

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece is seeking to unleash innovation and digitalization to stabilize its economy in the aftermath of the economic crisis and to recover from the pandemic. Greece is closely monitoring EU regulatory developments on digital affairs and adjusting its legislation accordingly. The proposed Digital Markets Act (DMA) is aligned behind the broader EU strategy of increasing European digital autonomy, an objective also endorsed by Greece. The DMA-related concerns of politicians, experts, representatives of the business sector and start-uppers are important and multifaceted, and ought to be taken into account in Europe (and Greece), especially with regard to the question of the DMA’s allegedly negative impact on innovation. It is in the interest of the EU (and Greece) to strike a balance between the emphasis on regulation and ‘gatekeepers’ on the one hand, and the need for enterprises and start-ups to benefit from services provided by digital giants (often for free) on the other. Combining the above with the pursuit of European digital autonomy is a demanding task. Although the DMA does not directly impact on Greek companies, the country is hoping for a smooth evolution in transatlantic relations during the Biden Presidency, both generally and in technological affairs. Greek start-ups envisage a boost in their US presence. The DMA proposal is inevitably complex; more time may be required for some EU member-states, including Greece, to actively join the debate.
Topic:
European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Autonomy, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

372. Nudging for Recovery: Behavioral Economics and the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan

Author:
Demosthenes Kollias
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
With the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, Greece is presented with yet another opportunity to catch up with global trends. At the same time, behavioral economics are being established worldwide as a valuable asset in the policy maker’s toolkit. The paper -mainly focusing on taxation, labor market policy, and climate change- aims to examine the behavioral conundrum that creates frictions and inefficiency in the domains outlined above and to offer concrete and quantifiable policy proposals, in accordance with the goals of Greece 2.0. Regarding tax evasion, for example, one can estimate at least €1 billion in additional tax revenue if the proposals are implemented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Tax Systems, Labor Market, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

373. Turkey’s African adventure: Taking stock of a new chapter in EU-Turkey relations

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Georgios Christos Kostaras
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Since its official adoption in 2005, Turkey’s “Africa Opening” (Afrika Açılımı) has become one of the most important elements in its foreign policy and resulted in the diversification of Turkey’s economic and political relations with sub-Saharan African states. While African-Turkish relations were broadly perceived as advanced by 2010, Ankara´s humanitarian involvement in Somalia the following year has been a catalyst for Turkey´s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Emphasizing both the absence of a colonial past and its religious affinities, Turkey has further promoted its relations and influence across the continent. This is most evident in the Sahel, where the strategies of Ankara and Paris are at loggerheads. EU and Turkish interests in Africa are not necessarily irreconcilable; Africa, a continent whose economic and strategic significance is set to sharply rise, deserves more attention from Greece and the European Union.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

374. Turkey in Germany’s 2021 Elections: Political party manifestos and their views on Turkey

Author:
Ronald Meinardus
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Rarely has an election outcome in Germany been as uncertain as it is today. Berlin’s future policy towards Ankara, and not at least the related refugee issues, especially following the recent developments in Afghanistan, will be one of the topics future coalition partners will need to agree on. The election manifestos of the political parties provide an important source for analyzing the political views of the political actors. All parties criticize the dire situation of human rights and the rule of law in today’s Turkey. While CDU/CSU and the far-right AfD reject a Turkish membership in clear terms, the other parties are less outspoken in this point. Potentially the most consequential divergence as reflected in the electoral programs relates to Germany’s arms export policy and the EU Refugee Agreement of 2016. Unlike the other parties, both the Greens and “Die Linke” want to terminate the migration deal as well as the export of German arms to Turkey.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, and Mediterranean

375. Skills mismatch in the Greek labour market: insights from a youth survey

Author:
Dimitris Katsikas
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper presents some first findings from a youth survey relating to the skills mismatch in Greece. The survey was conducted in the context of the EEA Grants sponsored research project “Youth employment and gender equality: Mobilizing human capital for sustainable growth in Greece”, which is implemented by ELIAMEP and the Norwegian institute Fafo. The project seeks to document and analyze conditions in the Greek labour market, with an emphasis on the main barriers constraining young people’s access to it and on their progress once they get a job. Pending a more in-depth analysis of the findings, the preliminary evidence presented here adds some insights to the study of the skills mismatch phenomenon in Greece and helps us outline a few policy proposals. Skills mismatch is a significant problem for modern economies, as it leads to the inefficient utilization of the labour force, reducing productivity and growth potential. Research shows that Greece faces a serious skills mismatch problem. The findings of a youth survey presented here: Confirm the problem for the Greek labour market in both its vertical (over/ underqualification) and horizontal (field of study) dimensions. Show that skills mismatch affects graduates within every level and orientation (e.g., vocational training) of the educational system. Document young people’s belief that the educational system does not prepare them well for the labour market Show that skills mismatch is a serious obstacle to labour market entry for young people Confirm the lack of learning opportunities for those in employment, as well as the importance which young people attach to such opportunities for their professional progress. Reveal that young people often reject jobs due to low pay and unsatisfactory employment conditions, implying that reported skills shortages are also due to the terms of employment on offer. Policy responses should be multi-faceted, targeting both the educational system and the economy. Providing students with information about market developments and trends, and taking such information into account in the design of educational curricula (particularly in vocational training) is essential if the skills mismatch problem is to be addressed.
Topic:
Youth, Survey, Labor Market, and Skills
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

376. A deadly exodus: Five trends to watch for in the evolving Afghanistan crisis

Author:
George Pagoulatos
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
US failure to consult allies has created a new rift with Europe. The transatlantic rift will be bridged, because every side has an interest in repairing the damage. The Afghanistan debacle has demonstrated Europe’s virtual nonexistence as a standalone strategic actor in the security domain. It is a reminder that the EU needs to develop its strategic autonomy and a fully functioning common asylum system. Europe will focus on working with key neighboring countries, applying leverage as an economic and development aid superpower to extract conditionality. There are many losers, and only a few clear winners. Pakistan, Turkey, China and Iran emerge as main winners from regime change in Afghanistan, but not without a significant downside. Radical Islam and Jihadi movements have gained a landmark victory. Taliban II are no less zealous in their religious obscurantism than Taliban I. The Taliban will be under strong external pressure to crack down on exportable terrorism. The Taliban are unlikely to be able to establish an effective central government and will lack complete control of the land. The desperation of thousands of people struggling to leave is a potent symbol both of the West’s impotence and of the power of its values. The West retains its universal aspirational potency. So do versions of radical Islam, reverberating throughout the Muslim world as a liberation theology. A lesson in humility might well be the West’s most precious takeaway from Afghanistan’s chaotic fall.
Topic:
Taliban, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, and United States of America

377. Energy: Factor of Stability or Conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean?

Author:
Marika Karagianni
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Security of critical economic and energy infrastructure has become a key element in the agenda of both the EU and NATO. The global balance between energy producers and energy importers needs also to be respected in order to secure the smooth operation of global economy and trade. Global energy organizations like OPEC and GAS OPEC see to that. Constructive, multilateral energy diplomacy via the reinforcement of the EMGF (East Med Gas Forum) is considered as the optimum solution to any destabilizing factor in the region. The Eastern Mediterranean has the potential to become a gas supply source for the EU in the future, alternatively to Russia, which is why it has been identified by Brussels as a future gas diversification source. The official strategy of Cairo is to develop indigenous natural gas resources, with the double aim to increase gas production rates and to export significant amounts to Europe in the immediate future. Egypt is bound to lead gas exports of the Eastern Mediterranean countries and diversification for Europe, through its LNG terminals. The East Med pipeline could follow later on.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Gas, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean

378. Turkey’s Soft Power in the Balkans Reaching its Limits

Author:
Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
With the EU putting the Western Balkan countries in an undefined waiting room, there was more room for maneuver for non-EU players. Turkey among others used this space to broaden its influence in the Balkans from politics to the economy, from culture to military cooperation, albeit from a very low starting point. The bilateral relations with all countries of the region are rather good, President Erdogan enjoys the recognition he is often lacking in other parts of the world. While the pandemic further harmed the EU’s image, it was mostly China and Russia who could fill the void with their own vaccines. Lacking its own vaccine so far, Turkey was much less visible. However, in the long-run, Turkey is not interested in an EU-Turkey confrontation over the Western Balkans, but that these countries join the EU. Through this, Turkey would increase the number of allies in a bloc where friends have become few.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, and Balkans

379. Protecting employment in 2021 and beyond: what can the new SURE instrument do?

Author:
Christina Kattami
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Protecting employment was not just a 2020 issue – while 2021 will be racing for vaccinations, and the immediate and complete relaxation of the containment measures will remain unlikely, the need to protect incomes and jobs will be as relevant as ever. As such, this policy brief analyses the rationale for, and the integration qualities of, the SURE instrument, which is being implemented following a European Commission proposal in April 2020 and a Council decision on 19 May 2020. By establishing the importance of short-time work schemes in protecting employment during the crucial first months of the pandemic, the brief explains the solidarity function of the SURE instrument, which ensures that all Member States have the resources available to make use of similar schemes to protect jobs, workers and incomes. Additionally, the decision to fund the SURE instrument with social bonds, which have been met with consistently overwhelming investor demand, forms an initial treasury form of what can be regarded as a European safe asset; something which will be strengthened in size and scope by the incoming European bonds funding the Recovery Instrument, Next Generation EU. Moving beyond 2021 and looking into a future model of employment protection in the future of the European labour market, the brief outlines the legal and political feasibility of transforming SURE into a permanent employment scheme, and, as such, an instrument of integration and socioeconomic resilience in the European Union.
Topic:
European Union, Employment, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

380. ΕU-Turkey Relations and the Migration Challenge: What is the Way Forward?

Author:
Panayotis Tsakonas
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Although disruption remains the norm in Turkey’s behavior, the EU should stand firm in developing a strategy of “balancing engagement” to keep Turkey anchored in the broader European and transatlantic framework. The Customs Union is an important instrument at the EU’s disposal for concluding an agreement with Turkey and negotiations can lead to an agreement that would balance European and Turkish interests. Moreover, a European strategy towards Turkey should address not only the immediate challenge of Turkey’s assertive behavior in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also the future of EU-Turkey relations along with the pressing migration challenge. An updated EU-Turkey Statement should rectify certain provisions of the current Statement on migration regarding Greece as well as Turkey’s intention to exploit migrants and refugees. Greece is in favor of a “rules-based” relationship between the European Union and Turkey. It could be an active contributor to the advancement of the EU strategy of “balancing engagement” by co-shaping Turkey’s new relationship with the EU.
Topic:
Migration, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

381. Greece’s Rise as a Trans-Mediterranean Power: Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean strategic shift to Europe-to-Africa and Europe-to-Middle East connectivity

Author:
Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece stands at the threshold of a strategic shift that could see the Hellenic Republic become Europe’s geopolitical gatekeeper of the emerging East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe commercial corridors. Whether Greece becomes a European leader in trans-Mediterranean connectivity depends on Athens’ ability to develop its own position in East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe manufacturing value chains. Greece’s advancing green energy, innovation economy offers promising avenues to engage Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in joint ventures that will transform Greece into a cutting-edge trans-Mediterranean actor. Greece’s new trans-Mediterranean profile is a strategic shift that will require the EU system to adjust its perception of Greece and incentivize closer coordination between Greece and other member states to facilitate joint venture investments in the two corridors. In the absence of such coordination, Athens will continue to deepen its relations with Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia while engaging with select EU member states. The extent to which Greece succeeds at industrial value chain integration will determine its role in the emerging trans-regional commercial architecture, and with it, Greece’s strategic standing within the European Union and the MENA region.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

382. Turkish drones, Greek challenges

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

383. Turkey and the West: A Hostile Dance

Author:
Nick Danforth
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Tensions between Turkey and the West have steadily worsened over the past five years, but analysts are still no closer to predicting what this means for the future. Many assume that longstanding strategic and economic ties will ultimately force both sides to muddle through and preserve their relationship, while others anticipate that pressure will build to the point where a decisive break becomes inevitable. This paper examines a number of different scenarios that have been put forward for Turkey’s relations with the US and EU, then tries to navigate between the most plausible among them to predict how this hostile dance might progress.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Mediterranean

384. Greek Diaspora in an uncertain world

Author:
Othon Anastasakis and Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece’s fiscal crisis has energized its relationship with its diaspora in the last several years, after decades of decline, as well as reshaping the diaspora itself due to the massive crisis-driven migration. Research institutes as well as individual scholars have addressed key aspects of the diaspora and homeland relationship prior to and during the crisis. South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) established in 2015 the Greek Diaspora Project, a dedicated research unit which has applied the well-established diaspora and development literature to the Greek case, in the crisis and post-crisis years. The opportunities for synergistic research between University centers and think tanks located in Greece and abroad, in satisfactorily addressing this crisis-driven transformation of the diaspora & homeland relationship, are compelling. SEESOX and ELIAMEP have thus decided to collaborate so they can catalyse such synergies both between themselves and with universities in Greece and abroad. SEESOX’s and ELIAMEP’s joint endeavor will be resolutely comparative as well as cross-disciplinary, reflecting both the requirements of a highly advanced diaspora studies prospectus as well as the respective strengths of the two partners.
Topic:
Migration, Diaspora, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

385. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”

Author:
Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

386. Turkey: A Problem Partner?

Author:
ELIAMEP
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
It was around the mid-2000s when Turkey—if only for a short period of time—promulgated the idea of “zero problems with neighbours”. At the time, Turkey was seeking positive reforms in all aspects of public life and a cooperative future with neighbouring countries based on mutual understanding and converging interests. Furthermore, Turkey imagined itself as a bridge between, not as a wall separating and isolating, different regions. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. For almost a decade now, Turkey has been reactionary in its treatment of its own citizens and solipsistic with regard to its neighbours. Democratic backsliding and human rights abuses inside Turkey have become the norm, while militarisation and unilateralism increasingly characterise its foreign policy choices. Its government actions have begun to resemble those of a rogue state. This report seeks neither to explain the intricacies of Erdoğan’s problematic behaviour towards its own people and the rest of the world, nor to denigrate Turkey’s standing. Rather, it aims to raise the alarm about the slippery slope Turkey finds itself on, hopefully well before his governance causes irreparable damage to the region. The report starts by presenting general aspects of Turkey’s relationship with international stakeholders, such as the EU and the US. It proceeds by mapping out internal developments that exemplify strong tendencies of democratic backsliding and human rights abuses. The third part focuses on regional aspects of Turkey’s foreign policy behaviour, starting with the most severe cases that epitomize the militarisation of its foreign policy and violations of international law. It concludes with various cases of political differences between Turkey and states on its periphery, which, combined with the other more severe cases described, demonstrate how Turkey’s foreign policy expectations of ‘zero problems with neighbours’ have turned into a ‘zero neighbours’ reality.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

387. EU-Turkey Economic Relations and the Customs Union: a rules-based approach

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Trade and economic relations remain the cornerstone of EU-Turkey relations. The Customs Union (CU) is the sole institutionalized instrument that remains important for both sides. Launching negotiations on how to update its content offers a set of fresh opportunities for the EU to reintroduce political as well as economic conditionality in its relations with Turkey. A step-by-step approach based on monitoring and benchmarking can enhance EU leverage vis á vis Turkey and allow the EU to escape a cycle of ineffective policy interventions on Turkey’s political trajectory. The CU can also become a vehicle to assist the democratic segments of Turkey’s civil society as well as those EU member states who have found themselves searching for an alternative to Turkey’s failed Europeanization.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

388. Humanitarian VISAs

Author:
Eleni Kritikopoulou
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The X and X decision of the European Court of Justice highlighted the gap in current EU law regarding human rights protections in entry procedures. Currently over 90% of those granted refugee status in the EU arrive through irregular means. There is an increasing need for a new form of visa, specifically to accommodate humanitarian matters, which are not currently covered by the pre-existing Schengen rules. For limited numbers, consulates of EU states would be empowered to issue Visas for asylum seekers in order to legally cross EU borders to launch an asylum application. Research shows that the economic costs for the implementation of this humanitarian visa system would be minimal and that the political and humanitarian benefits would be significant.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe

389. The EU-Turkey Visa Liberalization Saga: Lessons from the European Neighborhood

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Ayşe Tuba Uslu
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper co-authored by Ioannis Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow of ELIAMEP and Head of its Turkey Programme, and Ayşe Tuba Uslu, Senior at the Department of International Relations of Bilkent University, lays out the main challenges for the successful conclusion of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue (VLD) between the European Union and Turkey. It examines the impact of democratic backsliding, the decline of the rule of law, fundamental rights and divergence in the legal framework regarding organized crime and anti-terrorism on the VLD and highlights the mistrust that has developed between the parties. Through a comparison between Ukrainian, Georgian, Moldovan and Turkish VLDs, it aims to highlight how the VLD could come to a successful conclusion.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Rule of Law, Visa, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Middle East, Georgia, and Mediterranean

390. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ of European Defence Integration

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Defence cooperation in the EU is growing, reflecting the European citizens’ view of the EU as a security enhancer. This policy paper takes stock of current developments and analyses the positions of seven EU member-states on defence integration (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, and Greece). The ‘Magnificent Seven’ are key players in this process, not least because of their large defence budgets and their engagement in the existing forms of cooperation. We examine the defence budget of the seven countries and their breakdown, as well as their participation in Battlegroups, EU military operations and missions, and PESCO projects. The analysis provides significant insights on the national defence priorities. The seven countries form overlapping clusters, according to their political status and aspirations in the European integration process, their economic condition, their geographical location, and their relations with the US and NATO. All of them are facing significant dilemmas and engage in subtle balancing acts, which explains the slow and arduous path of European defence integration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

391. Public Administration in the era of Covid-19: Policy Responses and Reforms underway

Author:
Manto Lampropoulou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Covid-19 has caused an unprecedented shock to the state apparatus and has triggered major reforms in the administrative system of Greece. Policy responses to the pandemic have brought about several positive changes towards the modernization and de-bureaucratization of public administration. However, the pace and scale of change vary significantly. The pandemic has acted as a strong driver for the digital transformation of the public sector and the strengthening of e-government policies. Numerous administrative procedures were streamlined, digitalized and simplified, working conditions have become more flexible and several improvements have taken place in service delivery and state-citizen relations. The observed centralisation of decision-making and the often use of fast-track procedures have raised questions of democratic control, transparency and the rule of law, while the emergency measureshave been criticized for the threats they pose for the protection of citizens’ rights, individual liberties and personal data. A key challenge remains the integration the emergency measures of the covid-19 policy agenda into a longer-term programme of administrative reform in the post-covid era.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Rule of Law, Public Policy, Transparency, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

392. EU return sponsorships: High stakes, low gains

Author:
Florian Trauner and Olivia Sundberg Diez
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The concept of ‘return sponsorships’ is the most novel of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum’s proposals. It is also proving to be one of the most controversial in the negotiations. With this proposal, the Commission set out to resolve the discussion between member states on responsibility-sharing in migration matters, and simultaneously increase the number of migrants returned to their country of origin. Under the new scheme, member states would have to support other EU countries facing migratory pressure. If, however, they oppose the option of relocating asylum seekers, they can ‘contribute’ by facilitating the returns of migrants who lack permission to remain in Europe instead. But making this idea work in practice will not be straightforward. In unpacking the return sponsorship mechanism, Olivia Sundberg Diez and Florian Trauner have reached the following five conclusions: 1) Existing conflicts between member states over responsibility-sharing will not be settled but transposed onto discussions about the precise requirements of return sponsorship, in particular, the transfer of migrants within Europe if returns are unsuccessful. 2) The flexibility embedded in the solidarity mechanism comes at the expense of tangible support for EU border states, who continue to shoulder a disproportionate amount of the responsibility to receive and process new arrivals. 3) Matching the preferred contributions of a sponsor with a border state’s needs will be extremely complex in terms of administration, and effective enforcement tools are lacking. Repeated delays and the politicisation of solidarity processes are likely, giving member states many opportunities to shift and shirk their responsibilities. 4) Return sponsorships may create new human rights risks for migrants ordered to return, both in and outside of the EU. 5) The return sponsorship concept relies on returns being done faster and in far greater numbers. This is far from certain: many third countries, for one, will remain reluctant to readmit their own nationals. The Commission is taking a considerable risk with the return sponsorship proposal while the potential gains are modest. If the proposal is to move forward, negotiators should prioritise strengthening the predictability and tangibility of support provided by the solidarity mechanism to the EU’s border states, ensure that return sponsorships do not lead to new human rights violations, and avoid inflated expectations regarding the impact of the growing use of conditionality on returns.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, European Union, Borders, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe

393. The EU–UK relationship: It is what it is

Author:
Fabian Zuleeg and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement might have pulled both sides back from the brink of a no-deal cliff edge, but it remains a shaky foundation for the next stage of EU–UK relations. Both sides must invest in the relationship and rebuild trust to prevent any conflict from escalating into a tit-for-tat. Or else, they risk the collapse of the deal and the return to a no-deal-like state. In the first months of its new phase, the relationship is already off to a rocky start. The rows over the diplomatic status of the EU mission in London and the Commission’s (now reversed) decision to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol expose the volatility of the relations and the importance of good communication and trust. The hope for a deal came with the expectation that it would provide the foundation upon which a closer relationship could be constructed over time. It now seems more likely that it will be the basis for a diverging – and at times conflicting – relationship, with little prospect for a significantly closer economic relationship anytime soon. There seems little political appetite on both sides to build on the economic settlement meaningfully, which would require a significant shift of red lines. Previous expectations that a deal would pave the way for outstanding issues, such as the EU granting equivalence for financial services, have also diminished. Given both the political climate and many red lines, the agreed thin economic settlement may be the most we can expect.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

394. The EU’s legal migration acquis: Patching up the patchwork

Author:
Tesseltje de Lange and Kees Groenendijk
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The European Commission and EU member states must increase intra-EU mobility opportunities for already lawfully present third-country nationals (TCNs). A considerable workforce of TCNs is waiting to work across EU borders in the same way as EU citizens; their waiting is not conducive to making the EU legal migration acquis patchwork work. In its proposal on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, the European Commission has set out to do just that. If it wants to succeed and address Europe’s demographic trends and the foreseeable shortages in the continent’s national labour markets, a strong focus on enhancing the intra-EU mobility of TCNs already present in the EU is imperative. This Issue Paper presents five key recommendations that would improve the patchwork of the legal migration acquis. Harmonise existing rules. Full harmonisation of the legal migration acquis is not the immediate aim of EU member states but could become the objective in the long run. In the meantime, the Commission can take action to lift uncertainties over the meaning and subsequent implementation of the patchwork acquis. More legal certainty can only be experienced if the labour migration directives are used and litigated. Redesign the Single Permit Directive to deal with all procedures. The Single Permit Directive should, as a general directive on procedures, expand its subject matter to include all procedures on visas for entry and procedures on renewal and status switching. This could enable quick access to the Long-Term Resident status and intra-EU mobility. Engage third parties in the enforcement of equal treatment rights. The enforcement of the Single Permit Directive can be improved by first shifting the burden of proof of unequal treatment from the single permit holder to the employer. Second, third parties (e.g. work councils, NGOs) should be granted legal standing to engage in proceedings before national courts on behalf of or in support of single permit holders. In general terms, labour rights protection should be a priority of the highest degree. Design a ‘Light Blue Card’ for medium-skilled labour. To facilitate migration for medium-skilled jobs, rather than expand the scope of the Single Permit Directive, we suggest adding an optional or add-on, ‘light blue’ alternative for medium-skilled or -qualified labour (e.g. care work) to the recast Blue Card Directive. Facilitate the intra-EU mobility of third-country nationals. Rather than allow employers to use intra-EU posting to hire ‘cheap’ TCN workers in substandard conditions in low- and medium-skilled jobs, TCNs already lawfully present in the Union should get priority to access the EU labour market.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, European Union, Diversity, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

395. Europe after the Brits

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Andrew Duff argues that the loss of the United Kingdom should prompt serious reflection about the constitutional direction of the European Union. The secession of a member state changes the context of European integration. Brexit leaves the EU weaker, smaller and poorer — but it can and should also spur reform. The EU should aim to have major changes in place by 2029, including treaty revision. The reforms should include: (i) a renegotiation of the Brexit deal leading to a new class of affiliate membership; (ii) completion of the constitutional framework for a fiscal union; (iii) a European Parliament fully legitimated by election from transnational lists; and (iv) a ‘European Security Council’ of defence ministers to span the divide between the EU and NATO. The Conference on the Future of Europe may prove to be a useful democratic experiment. But it is not designed to address the important constitutional challenges that the Union faces. Duff therefore proposes creating an expert reflection group to stimulate the full implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as well as prepare the way for the next Convention which must be called to amend the EU treaties. More immediately, the reflection group should make proposals to settle the controversial matter of how to elect the new President of the European Commission in 2024.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, European Union, Brexit, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

396. After Brexit: Could bilateral agreements facilitate the free movement of persons?

Author:
Diego Acosta
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Some of the millions of EU nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU are already suffering from Brexit’s drastic curtailment of the right to free movement. How can migration now be governed and facilitated between the two parties? Although an EU-wide agreement with the UK that ensures free movement remains the ideal solution, it is currently unrealistic. This calls for an evaluation of possible alternatives. Bilateral agreements should be explored and examined as a possible alternative to an EU-wide agreement with the UK to facilitate and govern cross-border mobility. Various bilateral free movement agreements across Europe show that their use is not only legal but also habitual. They offer flexibility when it comes to the rights of entry, residency and work, as well as other important rights. And they could also be used as a foundation upon which to build an agreement between the EU as a whole and the UK, if not to facilitate the rebuilding of mutual trust. Migration law expert Diego Acosta makes a further case for Spain being the first possible candidate for a post-Brexit bilateral free movement agreement concluded between an EU member state and the UK. Spain is the most important EU destination for British emigrants, and British migrants residing in Spain constitute the latter’s third-largest non-national population. In turn, the UK is the most important migrant destination for Spanish nationals worldwide, who represent the fifth-largest migrant group from the EU. He offers concrete suggestions as to what a bilateral treaty between Spain and the UK could include. In addition, governments of EU member states that have important reciprocal migration flows with the UK, as well as the UK government, should consider the following recommendations when exploring the possibility of adopting bilateral agreements on migration: The negotiating parties should place the rights and interests of both short-term and long-term British and European nationals residing in each other’s territory at the centre stage. In negotiating a possible treaty, both the respective EU member state (e.g. Spain) and the UK should take the pre-Brexit status quo as the departing point. The status of mobile nationals could be improved beyond that enjoyed by EU citizens pre-Brexit. For example, political rights could be extended beyond the municipal level. Certain categories of individuals (e.g. retirees, young workers) could benefit from special provisions which also depart from the pre-Brexit situation.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Diversity, and Mobility
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

397. The von der Leyen Commission: Time to reset, regroup and get things done

Author:
Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As Commission President Ursula von der Leyen prepares her State of the Union speech that will map out the second half of her mandate, she must seize the opportunity to reset her Com­mission after more than 18 months in crisis-fighting mode. In broad lines, the European Commission’s priorities – fostering a collective recovery from the pandemic; rolling out Europe’s green, digital and geopolitical makeover – are the right ones. But today’s pace of change requires an updated outlook, fresh ideas and a critical examination of the President’s leadership, methods and structures. Georg Riekeles lifts the veil and outlines three essential questions which guide a reflection on what this Commission now stands for: How does the Commission ensure a continued capacity for fresh thinking and renewal to direct the EU’s political agenda? Can the EU deal with the political fall-out from uncertainty, shocks and change? Is the Commission’s executive structure tailored to deliver the major tasks it faces? With many strong personalities and seasoned politicians, von der Leyen’s Commission has potential, and yet much of its agenda remains undelivered. Now is the time for her administration to regroup and get things done in the final three years of her term. The below five recommendations addressed to President von der Leyen outline what should be done to improve her leadership and administration’s delivery within the current legal and institutional framework and complete the mandate assigned to her by Europe’s leaders and the European Parliament: Establish independent thought and foresight, capable of challenging established ideas and structures, at the heart of the Commission’s leadership and policy agenda. Clarify responsibilities over priority deliveries in the next three years within the College, including her own working relationship and shared leadership with the (Executive) Vice-Presidents. Rethink the inter-institutional cooperation on major transformative EU projects, such as the Green Deal and digital transition, which must be co-constructed across institutions, from inception to adoption, through dedicated structures and processes. To better process member states’ political concerns, von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel should offer First Vice-President Frans Timmermans the ‘Barnier seat’ at the European Council. Experiment further with the task force model, relying on the dual leadership of a politician and a high-level civil servant that are given direct access to top staff and resources across the Commission to solve a specific mission. Provide immediate remedy to resource allocation problems in overburdened Directorates-General and enact a proper reform of staffing policies.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Institutions, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

398. The European Green Deal: How to turn ambition into action

Author:
Annika Hedberg
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The pressure is on. The climate and ecological crises are accelerating and there is growing recognition that business as usual is not an option. The EU can and should play a major role in addressing the planetary crisis, in enabling and accelerating the transition to a more sustainable world. It can do this by acting as a rule-maker and enforcer; as an economic powerhouse; as a source of significant funding within the EU and beyond, as well as a mobiliser for private financing; as a convening power; as an innovator and developer of new solutions; as a standard-setter; as a major producer and consumer. The European Green Deal is crystal clear in its ambition. However, as this ambition and its goals are turned into policies and initiatives, the greatest challenge lies in the ‘how’. How to turn the ambition of the European Green Deal into real action and real results? This paper argues that to achieve the goals of the European Green Deal and leverage impact beyond EU borders as well, there are five fundamental strands of action for the EU and its member states: Leadership that communicates the urgency for action. Europe needs leaders - be it politicians, policymakers, media, heads of military or other opinion influencers - that communicate clearly the direction of travel and remind the public of the benefits of action as well as the costs of inaction for the economy, society and people. Aligning member state action with the agreed goals requires political will, ownership of the needed measures and recognising that urgent action is in every nation’s interest. This calls for using every tool in the kit, including EU policies, investments and collective action, to get on the right track. It requires addressing existing incoherencies in the policy and investment framework as well as better enforcement of existing rules. Bringing business along: The EU needs to help create the right framework conditions for European businesses – big and small - to succeed in the transition and to become a leader in those solutions that are increasingly demanded in- and outside of the EU. Bringing people along: Reaching the agreed goals requires communicating and showing the benefits that the measures will bring to people; managing the social impact on the most vulnerable in particular; and providing people with the right tools to engage in the transition. Global action: The EU should lead by example but also collaborate with other major players in addressing the climate and the wider sustainability crises. When the EU speaks and acts as one, it can be more powerful and impactful globally than the sum of its parts.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, Economy, Sustainability, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

399. Guidelines for Intelligence Oversight for Parliamentary Committees in the Assembly of the Republic of North Maced

Author:
Teodora Fuior
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The Guidelines for Intelligence Oversight reviews the Macedonian legislative framework and oversight system, and it provides information on international principles and good practices in intelligence oversight. It is designed to inform and support parliamentary committees in fulfilling their oversight mandate, especially in conceptualizing and planning oversight activities which need to contribute to an uncontested improvement of parliamentary performance in intelligence and security oversight. This revised version of the Guidelines shall respond to the expectations and needs of the new members of the Assembly, continuing to serve as a useful and informative tool for their work.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Governance, and Oversight
Political Geography:
Europe and North Macedonia

400. Cybersecurity in the Western Balkans: A Guide to Public-Private Partnerships

Author:
Franziska Klopfer and Irina Rizmal
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This Guide is designed to support Western Balkan governments and non-state actors that are planning to establish cybersecurity Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as part of their public–private cooperation. Drawing on international best practice, and referencing the region’s distinctive cultural, economic, and social context, it highlights options for establishing suitable cooperation frameworks and methods for overcoming obstacles. Chapter 1 of this Guide defines and sets out the main concepts and principles that underpin the guidance on planning, establishing, and maintaining a cybersecurity PPP. Chapter 2 provides practical, advice on how to plan, set up, and run a cybersecurity PPP in the specific context of the Western Balkans. Chapter 3 presents various types of cybersecurity PPPs and offers concrete examples from the Western Balkans and other parts of the world. A second text entitled “Legal and policy frameworks in Western Balkan economies on PPPs in cybersecurity” provides a succinct overview of the frameworks already in place in the Western Balkan economies.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Public Sector, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans