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301. The Ukraine Crisis: An Interim Analysis

Author:
Eldad Shavit, Zvi Magen, and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began only days ago, it is already clear that with this belligerence Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

302. FDI Spillover Effects on Innovation Activities of Knowledge-using and Knowledge-creating Firms: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Author:
Iraj Hashi, Mehtap Hisarciklilar, Slavo Radošević, Nebojša Stojčić, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The beneficial effects of innovation for firms’ performance and competitiveness are well documented, but it has been suggested in recent years that innovation regimes differ between advanced and emerging economies. While advanced economies rely on knowledge generation, their emerging counterparts follow mainly a knowledge-use regime through the application of existing knowledge and technology. Climbing up the technological ladder can be helped through spillovers from foreign investors to local firms. We investigate whether FDI spillovers influence different phases of the innovation process (from decision to innovate to productivity) among knowledge-using and knowledge-creating firms in an emerging European economy. The results show that the innovation process in emerging economies is closer to the imitation than the creation of novel products. Local firms benefit from foreign counterparts in the early phase of the innovation process. Stronger FDI effects are found among firms that undertake innovation through knowledge use rather than through knowledge generation.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Investment, and Knowledge Systems
Political Geography:
Europe

303. Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets

Author:
Stefan Jestl
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of industrial robots and information and communication technology (ICT) on regional employment in EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonised comprehensive regional dataset, which combines business statistics and national and regional accounts data. This rich dataset enables us to provide detailed insights into the employment effects of automation and computerisation in EU regions for the period 2001-2016. The results suggest relatively weak effects on regional total employment dynamics. However, employment effects differ between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Industrial robots show negative employment effects in local manufacturing industries, but positive employment effects in local non-manufacturing industries. While the negative effect is concentrated in particular local manufacturing industries, the positive effect operates in local service industries. IT investments show positive employment effects only in local manufacturing industries, while CT investments are shown to be irrelevant for employment dynamics. In contrast, software and database investments have had a predominantly negative impact on local employment in both local manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Industry, Robotics, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

304. Does my Computer Protect me from Burnout? Cross-country Evidence on the Impact of ICT use within the Job Demands-Resources Model

Author:
Sandra Leitner and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper uses a large sample of employees from 35 European countries to study the direct and indirect effects of ICT use on burnout and work engagement as two opposite poles of employee psychological health, where the former comprises the three dimensions of exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy. It applies the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model and analyses the mediating role of three job demands (work extensity, work intensity, social demands) and four job resources (social support from management or colleagues, job control, rewards) on workers’ psychological health. It accounts for the importance of the place of work for the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health by differentiating between four types of workers: home-based workers, highly mobile workers, occasionally mobile workers, and workers who always work at the employer’s premises. The results show that ICT use is associated with lower levels of exhaustion but is unrelated to work engagement. Furthermore, work intensity, work extensity, social demands and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on exhaustion, while job control and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on work engagement. Our multi-group analysis attributes the negative effect of ICT use on exhaustion mainly to occasionally mobile workers and to workers who always work at the employer’s premises and highlights that the factors that mediate the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health differ across the four types of workers. Home-based workers stand out in two important respects: first, ICT use per se is unrelated to burnout; second, only one factor – work intensity – mediates the effect of ICT use on burnout, but its effect is especially strong.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Engagement, Computers, and Burnout
Political Geography:
Europe

305. Comparative Advantages in the Digital Era – A Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Approach

Author:
Dario Guarascio and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper revisits the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem and investigates its fit for digital tasks and ICT capital, which both represent endowment factors that are expected to shape the digital transformation. We use a theory-consistent methodology for calculating the measured net factor content of trade (Trefler and Zhu, 2010) and apply it to a unique dataset on digital and non-digital tasks performed in detailed occupations, as well as recent data on ICT capital stocks. Equipped with these data we provide new evidence on the factor-based trade patterns for 25 EU countries and use it to test the HOV theorem. Overall, the performance of the sign test and the rank test is good if not impressive. In 83% of the cases countries are net exporters of those factors with which they are abundantly endowed, with a higher score achieved for digital tasks than for ICT capital. We conclude that the fit of the HOV theorem for highly relevant endowments of the digital era is as good as that of traditional endowment factors.
Topic:
European Union, Business, Trade, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

306. The Impact of ICT and Intangible Capital Accumulation on Labour Demand Growth and Functional Income Shares

Author:
Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper investigates whether the diffusion of tangible IT and CT capital and intangible capital asset types has an impact on labour demand growth and the share of labour income in total income at the industry and country level. The econometric analysis is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function taking empirical stylized facts into account. The effects of technical progress embodied in the various forms of capital impact along inter-industry and intercountry production linkages, which are considered by using global value chain indicators. The analysis is broken down to examine the influence on different types of labour, including the dimensions of gender, age, and educational attainment. Accumulation of ICT assets have generally insignificant and in some cases small positive effects on labour demand and income shares, though patterns differ across types of labour. Intangible assets show a positive relation with respect to labour demand growth.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Capital, Income, and Capital Accumulation
Political Geography:
Europe

307. Salmonella Program in the European Union and the Trade Dispute with Brazil at the World Trade Organisation: A Partial Equilibrium Framework

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This contribution provides a cost-benefit analysis in a partial equilibrium framework to investigate the welfare consequences of a prohibitive regulatory non-tariff measure (NTM) in the form of a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure aimed at a foreign product with perceived negative characteristics. Two groups of consumers are distinguished: one that is indifferent to the foreign product’s negative attributes, and another that is concerned about them. Different scenarios concerning the welfare gains from the introduction of an NTM are explored. The results depend on consumer awareness and information policies pursued by the government of the importing country or group of countries. The theoretical model is illustrated with data on the production and importation of prepared poultry in the EU. This paper focusses on the recent Dispute Settlement (DS) case 607 at the World Trade Organization (WTO) that was initiated by Brazil in November 2021 to consult with the EU on restrictive measures imposed on the importation of prepared and preserved poultry. These restrictions are in line with the comprehensive and restrictive programme legislated by the EU to combat salmonella spp. The findings suggest that the consumer surplus may be reduced after the imposition of prohibitive SPS measures because the market structure changes from a duopoly to a monopoly. However, when the perceived harm of the bad product increases and the portion of the concerned population in society regarding the bad product increases, the change in the consumer surplus also increases.
Topic:
World Trade Organization, European Union, Welfare, Trade Policy, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, and South America

308. The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis

Author:
Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the cyclicality of fiscal policy (discretionary versus automatic) for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021 by paying special attention to the Covid-19 crisis. We find evidence that discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more countercyclical than before – in particular in the Eurozone. We do not find comparable evidence for more counter-cyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis, which lends support to the argument that discretionary fiscal policy responded especially forceful to stabilise the economy during the Covid-19 crisis. Furthermore, automatic fiscal stabilisers contributed significantly to counter-cyclical stabilisation, although their performance over 2020-2021 was more in line with the past than for discretionary fiscal policy. Overall, fiscal policy in non-Eurozone advanced countries is more countercyclical than in the Eurozone. However, the cyclicality varies markedly across countries. Our findings shed light on how the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy varies across countries and time.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

309. German Economy Summer 2022: Slowly progressing recovery

Author:
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Meuchelbock, Dominik Groll, Stefan Kooths, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The German economy navigates troubled waters. The catch-up process in the contact-intensive service industries is continuing at a fast pace and companies in the manufacturing sector are sitting on well-filled order books. However, high inflation is reducing the purchasing power of disposable incomes and thus dampening the recovery in consumption. In addition, supply bottlenecks have recently worsened again due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, the recovery will regain strength only in the second half of the year, when prices will no longer rise as rapidly and supply bottlenecks will begin to ease. Overall, we expect GDP to increase by 2.1 percent this year, as in our spring forecast. In 2023, GDP will grow by 3.3 percent (spring forecast: 3.5 percent). At 7.4 percent, inflation in the current year will be higher than ever before in reunified Germany. Next year, inflation will probably remain high with 4.2 percent. The recovery in employment continues. Effective earnings will rise strongly, also because labor shortages have reached an all-time high. In the current year, however, the increase of about 5 percent will lag behind the rate of inflation. Public budget deficits will decline as revenues increase strongly and pandemic-related expenditures are reduced. In 2023, public debt in relation to GDP is expected to be slightly above 60 percent.
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Inflation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

310. German Economy Spring 2022: Recovery at risk – Soaring Inflation

Author:
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Meuchelbock, Jan Reents, Dominik Groll, Stefan Kooths, Martin Ademmer, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The German economy is once again facing strong headwinds. The war in Ukraine is leading to rising commodity prices, new supply bottlenecks and dwindling sales opportunities. These factors will affect the German economy in different ways. Higher commodity prices reduce the purchasing power of disposable incomes and thus dampen private consumption. Moreover, new supply bottlenecks will dampen industrial production in the coming months. Finally, sales opportunities will deteriorate at least temporarily due to the sanctions and the increased uncertainty caused by the war. All this is hitting the economy in a phase in which the dampening effects of the pandemic are fading out and a strong recovery has begun to emerge. The dampening factors are cushioned because private households have accumulated large amounts of extra savings since the beginning of the pandemic, so that high inflation does not fully impact private consumption. In addition, industrial firms have an unusually high stock of orders, which will cushion the temporarily lower sales opportunities. As a result, the recovery is likely to continue this year, albeit at a noticeably slower pace than expected in winter. Overall, we now expect GDP to rise by 2.1 percent in this year (winter forecast: 4 percent) and by 3.5 percent in 2023 (winter forecast: 3.3 percent). With 5.8 percent inflation is likely to be higher this year than ever before in reunified Germany. Even if commodity prices stop rising and supply bottlenecks gradually ease, inflation is still likely to be unusually high at 3.4 percent next year, also because recent producer price increases are only gradually being passed through to consumers. The labor market is expected to remain robust. Public spending will rise in response to the war and its economic consequences, so that budget deficits will remain at elevated levels for a longer period.
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Inflation, and Purchasing Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

311. Russia-Ukraine: Dangerous Stalemate

Author:
European Institute of Peace
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
Seven years have passed this month since the Package of Measures for implementation of the Minsk agreements called for an “immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation…”. Despite endorsement by the UN Security Council Resolution 2202 (February 2015), little or no progress was made in implementing the Minsk agreements, with continued conflict and violations of the ceasefire reported by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) on an almost daily basis. Almost 14.000 Ukrainians lost their lives, thousands more were injured, and millions displaced. With no effective ceasefire in place, this is not a “frozen conflict,” and violent escalation may happen by intent, misunderstanding or miscalculation. Today an even more dangerous stalemate has emerged. Deep international concerns have been raised about the reported Russian military build-up along the country’s borders with Ukraine. Further raising the stakes, broader security issues have re-surfaced with Moscow demanding inter alia guarantees from the US and NATO to refrain from any further enlargement of the alliance, including the accession of Ukraine and other states. Despite intensive and on-going international consultations at all levels, there are no signs yet of de-escalation of the crisis. This report has been prepared in consultation with a group of Ukrainian and Russian experts who have been conducting quiet discussions during the past two years on the Minsk peace process and, more broadly, relations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. These talks are held under the auspices of the European Institute of Peace.[1] Out of deep concern with present developments, it was decided to share more widely the broad consensus among the participants about the urgent need for a sustainable and durable ceasefire as a prerequisite for implementing the Minsk agreements. In a recent encouraging development, the advisers to the Normandy Four (N4) heads of state and government have supported in a joint statement after their meeting in Paris “unconditional observance of the ceasefire of 22 July 2020 regardless of differences on other issues of the implementation of the Minsk agreements.”[2] Reportedly, a follow-up meeting in Berlin on 10 February 2022 yielded no tangible results yet. Even if the Minsk peace process has come to a ground halt at present, it should be realized that the same political and security issues will have to be addressed in any renewed peace efforts in whatever format to restore peace in east Ukraine. This report highlights that any attempt to overcome the current political stalemate needs to be supported by concrete steps to establish a sustainable ceasefire at the ground-level of the conflict. The report analyses the major reasons for why a sustainable ceasefire was not implemented thus far, and offers a ceasefire management tool referred to as a “Coordination and Verification Mechanism” (CVM).
Topic:
Military Strategy, Violence, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

312. Cutting through the Value Chain: The Long-Run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West

Author:
Gabriel Felbermayr, Alexander Sandkamp, and Hendrik Mahlkow
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers - both unilateral and reciprocal - between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter’s smaller relative size.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Conflict, Trade Wars, Protectionism, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

313. Exchanging Money for Love? A Regional Analysis of EU Cohesion Policy on Euroscepticism

Author:
Michael Bayerlein and Matthias Diermeier
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In the past, the European Union seems to have been able to tame Euroscepticism through regional 'convergence' funding. After the Eastern enlargement of the Union, however, this relationship needs to be put to the test. Not only have the new member states become the main recipients of EU funding, Eastern Europe has also changed from once being the most integration-friendly region to displaying the most integration-hostile attitudes in the EU. Motivated by this empirical puzzle, we revisit the relationship between structural 'convergence' funding and Euroscepticism and ask where - if at all - is the EU's convergence spending still able to tame Euroscepticism. Most surprisingly, correlation analyses reveal that between 2006 and 2018 larger regional subsidies go along with increasing opposition to EU integration. We can rebut this counterintuitive finding by a Diff-in-Diff approach that reveals an increasing Euroscepticism in Eastern European regions between 2006 and 2014. Nevertheless, also these more advanced models fail to establish a positive relationship between regional funding eligibility and pro-integrationist attitudes. Finally, fuzzy RDD models exploit the funding assignment rule and corroborate that the EU is no longer able to pacify integration-critical regions by their simply increasing 'convergence' funding. Nevertheless, the EU has won support in Eastern Europe where EU investments are perceived (positively). In designing a strategy to win back support for EU integration, Brussels does not need more fiscal capacity but rather has to design 'convergence' funding that is visible as well as clearly attributable to its donor.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, and Eurocentrism
Political Geography:
Europe

314. A Primer on the 2022 National Security Strategy

Author:
Peter Juul and Heba Malik
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
The 2022 National Security Strategy introduces new ideas on navigating strategic competition with China and Russia, investing at home, and a renewed focus on the fight against climate change.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, National Security, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

315. Will Viktor Orbán Bring His Racist Rhetoric to the United States this Week?

Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's embrace of far-right racism should prompt American conservatives to cut ties with the autocratic Hungarian leader.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Discrimination, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe, Hungary, North America, and United States of America

316. Turkey's ‘Precious Loneliness’ vs. Greece's Multilateralism

Author:
Hay Eytan Cohen Yanaraocak
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak discusses the latest tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece. By analyzing the foreign policy strategies of both countries the essay reveals Turkey's shrinking leverage on the West and its ramifications for the Turkish national security.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

317. Eighth sanctions package: Which side will be the economic loser?

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Since February 24, 2022, Russia's invasion policy towards Ukraine has been tried to be prevented by several series of sanctions by the European Union. These sanctions include trade, travel, asset freezes, oil, transport, and SWIFT bans. Since the start of the war, 7 sanctions packages have been presented and many of them are being implemented. In response to Russia's invasion policy against Ukraine, the European Commission presented the eighth package of sanctions covering visa issues and asset freezes.
Topic:
Economics, Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

318. Potential Expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC): New Realities and Opportunities

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The article clarifies the directions in which the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) can be expanded and gas can be transported to how many countries. For the expansion of the SGC, countries such as Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania are studied in this paper. The issue of reducing Europe's 40% dependence on Russian gas and Europe's search for alternative energy sources and the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor, one of the largest gas export projects to Europe, are on the agenda. In addition, the threat of several European countries - Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, and Denmark - refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles, and as a result, the supply of gas is cut off.
Topic:
Gas, Exports, and Energy Dependence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Czech Republic

319. The Implications of the Third Trilateral Meeting in Brussels

Author:
Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
In a way towards a productive peace-building process, discussing the situation in South Caucasus and deepening economic cooperation between the EU and both countries, on May 23 President of the European Council Charles Michel hosted the President of Azerbaijan: Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan. Following the 6 April meeting, which is called by the President Ilham Aliyev as a starting point in the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the content of the recent meeting is once more characterized by its promising and necessary provisions that will serve the interests of Azerbaijan and development of the region more broadly.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Brussels

320. Azerbaijani Gas Export to Europe: What Advantages Are There?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Following Russia's decision to restrict natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, energy security has become a priority in the European Union. Although the ancient continent is trying to increase gas imports from alternative sources, Gazprom is still trying to maintain its dominance in Europe for some time. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to increase natural gas production. In the first quarter of this year, Azerbaijan produced 11.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from ACG, 6.4 billion cubic meters from Shah Deniz, and 1.9 billion cubic meters from SOCAR. During that period, gas exports amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters. 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were exported to Turkey, 2.6 billion cubic meters to Europe, and 1.1 billion cubic meters to Georgia. More than 4 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkey via TANAP during this period.
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria

321. How Will Coal Sanctions Impact on Russian Economy?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The Western Alliance has approved a new package of sanctions against Russia. The most notable of the sanctions is the suspension of coal exports from Russia. What does this mean for Russia, and how can the European Union compensate for this ban? Yesterday, the European Commission posted a decision on sanctions on its website, which means that the ban will come into force. This means that from today, European companies will not be able to conclude contracts to buy coal from Russia. The contracts signed in the previous period must be completed by August.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Exports, Coal, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

322. Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas: Challenges and New Alternatives

Author:
Nigar Islamli
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has revealed energy reliance between the European Union and Russia as an issue. In addition to the dependence of the European Union (EU) on Russia, particularly in the sphere of energy, it did not alleviate but rather aggravated, Europe's and Russia's security worries about each other. All happenings raise this question: Can the European Union eliminate its dependence on Russian gas? Is it possible? If possible, for how long can this dependence be eliminated?
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Energy Dependence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

323. Blowback from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Leah Zamore, and James Traub
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
While the Ukrainian army and people continue to resist, the costs of Russia's invasion in human terms are mounting. As of March 15, the United Nations (UN) had verified 1,900 civilian casualties, including 726 deaths (fifty of them children), as Russia intensifies its assault on civilian targets, seizes the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site, lays siege to Mariupol which is without food, energy, or water in freezing temperatures, continues to threaten Kyiv, begins a push on Odesa and assaults Kharkiv with heavy and indiscriminate shelling.
Topic:
Security, War Crimes, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

324. Recent UN Votes on Ukraine: What Needs to be Done to Maintain International Unity (Part I)

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Faiza Shaheen, Leah Zamore, Karina Gerlach, and Nendirmwa Noel
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Horrific images of the loss of life and humanitarian suffering in Ukraine continue to come to light, including significant evidence of large-scale human rights abuses. As the war in Ukraine looks likely to enter a period of rearming, redeployment and renewed attacks in the East, maintaining international pressure for a negotiated peace agreement that maintains territorial integrity and upholds international law will be crucial.
Topic:
International Law, Multilateralism, Humanitarian Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

325. The importance of cybersecurity for Bosnia and Herzegovina Policy recommendations to support BiH’s cyber capabilities and international aspirations

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Cybersecurity is a fundamental domain for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as it impacts the country‘s national security, its economic growth and its international commitments and goals. Despite the importance of cyberspace for the country, BiH lacks a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity, having instead a jeopardised approach which hinders its cybersecurity efforts. The country‘s cybersecurity capabilities are underdeveloped, exposing governmental bodies, private companies and citizens to potential cyber threats and risks. Limited cybersecurity capabilities can undermine BiH‘s efforts to access the EU and NATO as these international organisations require states to respect and adopt specific cybersecurity standards and legislation. Hence, BiH needs to improve its cybersecurity architecture to achieve its international goals. In addition, the country must enhance its cybersecurity to accomplish international obligations deriving from the country‘s membership of international organisations and its ratification of the Budapest Convention. Although the country presents embryonic cybersecurity capabilities, BiH public institutions are improving their cybersecurity awareness by providing public employees with workshops, seminars, and training courses on cybersecurity. As of this, international and domestic cooperation represents a pivotal opportunity for BiH to build and enhance its cyber capabilities; intergovernmental organisations, research centres and partner counties are providing BiH public institutions with funds and training opportunities in the field of cybersecurity.
Topic:
NATO, Crime, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

326. Policing in Bosnia and Herzegovina During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2021)

Author:
Stiven Tremaria
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
This paper provides an account of the developments of policing in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2021 to shed light on elements of continuity and changes from previous trends observable since the 2010s. It is contended that the COVID-19 has made manifest the extent to which the factual management capacity of the Bosnian state administration and the police forces has consolidated in the entities and cantons. By contrast, central state police agencies suffer from chronic stagnation, institutional dysfunctionality, and a lack of factual management capacity to face unexpected challenges and emergencies. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has fostered certain conditions for advancing the rollback of the democratically oriented police reform observable at the entity and cantonal levels since the last decade, which manifests through politicisation, militarisation and slight informalisation of policing. In particular, such police counter-reform has been more acute in the Republika Srpska under the SNSD rule, in contrast to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose police forces are affected by severe degrees of institutional fragmentation, dysfunctional working and clientelism.
Topic:
Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

327. Book Talk. "Orbánland" by Lasse Skytt

Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
From Europe to America, political landscapes have shifted in recent years in a way summed up in microcosm no better than by the trajectory of one small country, Hungary—whose leader, Viktor Orbán, has gained outsized international notoriety as the bad boy of the European Union for his steadfast alternative to the liberal democracy that has dominated the Western world since 1989. Orbánland is the fascinating story of a Danish journalist who moves to Hungary to gain an insight into the political complexities of this divisive European country. Along the way, he encounters people from all walks of life, and he learns as much about the Hungarians as about himself. In a narrative as absorbing and as it is vital for the lessons it carries as America prepares for its 2020 presidential elections, he asks: Can we get along with those on the other side of the fence? Is it worth even trying? His answers are surprising. By guiding us through a polarized landscape of differing opinions, Lasse Skytt delivers a broader perspective on Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, one that suggests possibilities for the future of Europe and America. His journey will leave us questioning our own truths, and, ultimately, which side we are on.
Topic:
Politics, Authoritarianism, Liberal Order, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

328. Things Washed Ashore

Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
One could not physically leave totalitarian autarchic Albania, but one could always escape it. Ardian Vehbiu, who has extensively written on totalitarian language and semiotics, will talk about the out-sized effects of found western objects, casual merchandise, media and images in the Albanian popular imagination. Looking at this “flotsam” that washed ashore, we will explore the relationship between these objects and images and how they shaped the imagination and experiences of Europe and of ourselves. How did these objects, images and messages reach an otherwise impervious Albania? How did they circulate once in Albania and what life and meanings did they take on? Did this relationship with the “beyond”, cherished and suffered by the citizens-inmates of a country otherwise closed to the world, lead to an inadvertent “colonization” of minds by these ethereal images built by and for Western media? Or, did these highly censored or scarcely available objects and images allow Albanians to clandestinely escape across the porous borders of the imagination?
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Media, Totalitarianism, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe and Albania

329. Radioactive Consequences of a War in Ukraine

Author:
Rico Chandra
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
A war in Ukraine could lead to thousands of radioactive sources getting lost, or worse, getting stolen and repurposed for political destabilization. So what is a radioactive “source”? It is a material that is specifically manufactured for the purpose of emitting radiation. For example, some forms of cancer are treated using radiotherapy whereby intense gamma radiation, emitted from a pencil-sized lump of radioactive metal, is directed at the tumor. This lump of highly radioactive metal is a radioactive “source”.
Topic:
Health, Military Strategy, Radiological Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

330. Present Danger: Nuclear Power Plants in War

Author:
Henry Sokolski
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
After Russia’s unprecedented seizure of Ukraine’s nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhya, the United States needs to adjust its military planning and policies to cope with hostile military forces’ targeting, seizure, and garrisoning of armed forces at large operating nuclear plants and clarify its policies regarding possible US targeting of such plants. This article is the first to analyze these concerns. It compares Russia’s assaults with previous strikes against research reactors and nonoperating nuclear plants in the Middle East and clarifies what new military measures and policies will be needed to cope with military operations against large, operating nuclear plants. US Army and Pentagon officials, as well as military and civilian staff, will discover ways to mitigate and reduce future military harm to civilians in war zones and understand the operational implications of military assaults on and seizures of civilian nuclear facilities.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

331. Arresting Nuclear Adventurism: China, Article VI, and the NPT

Author:
Henry Sokolski and Andrea Beck
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Given the current crisis in Ukraine, it’s tempting to consider focusing on Chinese compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to be an academic indulgence. Giving into this inclination, however, would be a mistake. As dangerous as Russia currently is, China will be more threatening in the long run. As we are learning with Russia’s violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, enforcing binding understandings is critical lest violators run roughshod over law and good order. This is true with Russia’s behavior in Ukraine. It is no less so with China’s nuclear weapons buildup and its repeated refusal to join in good faith negotiations to limit its nuclear weapons activities, which is required by Article VI of the NPT. This buildup and refusal clearly flies in the face of China’s legal NPT obligations. The question is what might bring Beijing back into compliance. To get the answers, NPEC held a battery of workshops last fall, followed by a week-long diplomatic simulation. The game participants included U.S., Japanese, and Australian former and current officials and staff as well as outside experts. The group concluded that Beijing is unlikely to comply willingly with the NPT anytime soon, but that U.S. and international security would still be best served by spotlighting Beijing’s nuclear adventurism and suggesting diplomatic off-ramps to arrest its nuclear buildup.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Peace, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

332. Cutting Putin’s Energy Rent: ‘Smart Sanctioning’ Russian Oil and Gas

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Agata Łoskot-Strachota, Axel Ockenfels, Ulrich Schetter, Simone Tagliapietra, Guntram Wolff, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Following the Russian aggression against Ukraine, major sanctions have been imposed by Western countries, most notably with the aim of limiting Russia’s access to hard international currency. However, Russia remains the world’s first exporter of oil and gas, and at current energy prices this provides large hard currency revenues. As the war continues, European governments are under increased pressure to scale-up their energy sanctions, following measures taken by the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. This piece argues that given the inelasticity of Russia’s oil and gas supply, for Europe the most efficient way to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo, but the introduction of an import tariff that can be used flexibly to control the degree of economic pressure on Russia.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, Sanctions, Exports, Currency, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and North America

333. Trade Liberalization, Collective Bargaining and Workers: Wages and Working Conditions

Author:
Bastien Alvarez, Gianluca Orefice, and Farid Toubal
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Using large scale data on Eastern European workers, we show significant and sizable deteriorations of their wages and working conditions in regions that faced large tariff liberalization and strong erosion of collective bargaining over the process of accession to the European Union. Import tariffs liberalization reduces workers' wages. The deterioration of working conditions is mostly driven by increased labor demand due to the improvement of Eastern countries' international market access. The erosion of collective bargaining worsens wages and working conditions.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Tariffs, Collective Bargaining, and Wages
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

334. EU in Search of a WTO-Compatible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

Author:
Cecilia Bellora and Lionel Fontagné
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
To meet the targets of the EU’s ”Fit for 55” package, the European Commission proposes to implement a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM is firstly intended to avoid carbon leakages, but it also deals with the thorny issue of the compliance by European producers in carbon-intensive industries. In addition, its design, as voted by the European Council on March 15, 2022, questions the compatibility of the CBAM with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. The CBAM puts a price on carbon contained in imported products whose production-related emissions have not been taxed (or not at the same level as in the European Union) by the exporter country, in order to offset the difference in carbon prices at the border. This paper aims to quantify the economic and environmental impacts of different CBAM design choices with the aim of complying with WTO rules. Different from the previous literature, we evaluate the various options with a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring imperfect competition, global value chains, green-house gas emissions and endogenous price of emission quotas. We show that CBAM is effective in reducing carbon leakages. But its design leads to an increase in the price of carbon quotas in the European Emission Trading System (ETS) market. Losses in competitiveness on export markets are expected, also for downstream sectors not covered by the EU ETS nor the CBAM. Eventually, offsetting the difference in carbon prices at the border comes at a cost to the enforcing jurisdiction, suggesting that the CBAM was not designed as a beggar-thy-neighbour policy.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Carbon Emissions, WTO, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

335. Second-generation immigrants and native attitudes toward immigrants in Europe

Author:
Oscar Barrera, Isabelle Bensidoun, and Anthony Edo
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the role played by immigrants and their children in shaping native attitudes toward immigrants in the European Union. By exploiting the 2017 Special Eurobarometer on immigrant integration, we show that countries with a relatively high share of immigrants are more likely to believe that immigrants are a burden on the welfare system and worsen crime. In contrast, native opinions on the impact of immigration on culture and the labor market are unrelated to the presence of immigrants. We also find that the effects of second-generation immigrants on pro-immigrant attitudes toward security and fiscal concerns are positive (as opposed to first-generation immigrants). Finally, we find no impact of the immigrant share on the attitudes of natives supporting far-left or left political parties, while it is the most negative among respondents affiliated with far-right parties.
Topic:
Children, European Union, Immigrants, Ideology, Welfare, and Nativism
Political Geography:
Europe

336. Regional Diffusion of Foreign Demand Shocks Through Trade and Ownership Networks

Author:
Lionel Fontagné and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
International demand shocks are transmitted within the trade and ownership firms' networks and impact directly or indirectly domestic firm productivity and labor misallocation. Considering manufacturing firms for Italy, Spain and France over the period 2009-2017, we quantify these transmission channels from the global economy to the domestic firms, and within the domestic economy across locations, sectors and firms. We compute in a shift share fashion international demand shock at the district-sector-year level as plausibly exogenous to individual firms. Our results confirm that global shocks are transmitted through trade networks and that this transmission is largely mediated by firms' ownership networks both across and within the borders of the three countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Demand, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Spain, and Italy

337. The Heterogenous Effects of Employers’ Concentration on Wages: Better Sorting or Uneven Rent Extracting?

Author:
Axelle Arquie and Julia Bertin
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We show empirically for France that labor market concentration decreases wages heterogeneously, with the lowest earners being the most vulnerable, and increases local wage inequality within occupations. If concentration allows employers to improve worker selection, both inequality and efficiency gains could materialize. However, based on a simple formalization, we interpret the findings that employer concentration increases within-firm inequality and decreases between-firm inequality as evidence against such a sorting mechanism. We also find evidence that employer concentration does not increase positive assortative matching. The results therefore suggest that concentration increases inequality through the relatively reduced bargaining position of the lowest earners.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Inequality, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:
Europe and France

338. The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration

Author:
Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, and Jerome Valette
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper analyses whether the systematic disclosure of criminals’ origins in the press affects natives’ attitudes towards immigration. It takes advantage of the unilateral change in reporting policy announced by the German newspaper Sächsische Zeitung in July, 2016. Combining individual-level panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2014 to 2018 with 402,819 crime-related articles in German newspapers and those newspapers’ market shares, we find that systematically mentioning the origins of criminals increases the relative salience of natives’ criminality and reduces natives’ concerns about immigration, breaking the implicit link between immigration and crime.
Topic:
Media, Immigrants, Discrimination, and Nativism
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

339. Skilled Immigration, Task Allocation and the Innovation of Firms

Author:
Anna Maria Mayda, Gianluca Orefice, and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the impact of skilled migrants on the innovation (patenting) activity of French firms between 1995 and 2010, and investigates the underlying mechanism. We present district-level and firm-level estimates and address endogeneity using a modified version of the shift-share instrument. Skilled migrants increase the number of patents at both the district and firm level. Large, high-productivity and capital-intensive firms benefit the most, in terms of innovation activity, from skilled immigrant workers. Importantly, we provide evidence that one channel through which the effect works is task specialization (as in Peri and Sparber, 2009). The arrival of skilled immigrants drives French skilled workers towards language-intensive, managerial tasks while foreign skilled workers specialize in technical, research-oriented tasks. This mechanism manifests itself in the estimated increase in the share of foreign inventors in patenting teams as a consequence of skilled migration. Through this channel, greater innovation is the result of productivity gains from specialization.
Topic:
Business, Immigrants, Innovation, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:
Europe and France

340. Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: an Appraisal of the Underlying Forces

Author:
Emmanuelle Faure, Carl Grekou, and Valérie Mignon
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper revisits the crucial issue of current account imbalances and focuses on the determinants of their gaps between eurozone Member States. We conduct robust estimations of the current account balances for a panel of ten founding euro area economies and construct a measure that allows us to diagnose why some countries have started to diverge from the eurozone mean in the last two decades. Our findings show evidence of remaining differences in countries’ economic development, meaning that real macroeconomic convergence has failed in the zone. Price and cost competitiveness, as well as fiscal balances, have also participated in this growing macroeconomic divergence. Overall, while the European authorities cannot influence the part of the current account gaps due to demographic factors, the role of fiscal redistribution and investment at the euro area level could help achieve macroeconomic convergence and thus reduce current accounts’ divergence in the zone.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Eurozone, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe

341. Everything Counts: Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

Author:
Miles A. Pomper, William Alberque, Marshall L. Brown Jr., William M. Moon, and Nikolai Sokov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration insisted in arms control talks with Russia that a follow-on agreement to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) should cover all nuclear weapons and that such an agreement should focus on the nuclear warheads themselves. This would represent a significant change from previous agreements, which focused on delivery vehicles, such as missiles. The United States has been particularly interested in potential limits on nonstrategic nuclear warheads (NSNW). Such weapons have never been subject to an arms control agreement. Because Russia possesses an advantage in the number of such weapons, the US Senate has insisted that negotiators include them in a future agreement, making their inclusion necessary if such an accord is to win Senate approval and ultimately be ratified by Washington. In the wake of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine conflict, such demands can only be expected to grow if and when US and Russian negotiators return to the negotiating table.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

342. Russian-Turkish Relations and Implications for U.S. Strategy and Operations

Author:
Hanna Notte and Chen Kane
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Russia and Turkey’s complex relationship has significant implications for U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) strategic interests. The two states cooperate, deconflict, and compete in multiple theatres within Turkey’s extended neighborhood, which straddles United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), and United States European Command (USEUCOM) areas of responsibility (AORs). 1 Their bilateral strategic trade has created mutual dependencies and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and tourism. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has many implications for the Russia-Turkey relationship. While engaging actively with Russia and stoking fears that its commercial ties with Moscow could serve Russia’s evasion of Western sanctions, Turkey has also provided TB2 Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, invoked the Montreux Convention, and offered itself as a mediator on various operational issues in the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result of these steps, Turkey’s leverage over both Russia and NATO allies has increased since February 2022. From a U.S. perspective, the implications have been mixed as Turkey has translated its increased leverage into foreign policy steps that threaten to undermine U.S. interests and NATO cohesion. Turkey remains of significant importance to the United States in enabling its interests in the three aforementioned AORs, preventing third actors like China and Iran from operating in the “seams,” and generating an enhanced, unified, and credible NATO capability and capacity in response to Russian aggression. It follows that Turkey’s interplay with Russia in its extended neighborhood has far-reaching implications for the United States and NATO. This study aims to shed light on this relationship, its likely trajectory over the coming decade, its implications for U.S. strategic interests, and how the United States and NATO might shape the Russia- Turkey interplay to their advantage.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America

343. The African-France Summit and an Overview of its Recommendations Since 1973

Author:
Fabien Sundjo
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
France’s earliest profit-making involvement in Africa in the business of buying and transporting slaves started in the 17th century when the local Indian population proved unable to work in plantations in America compared to black Africans. France’s interest in Africa reached its zenith in the 19th and early 20th centuries when France acquired a gigantic African empire. Though several reasons could explain the scramble for Africa by France, we present herein the three most important. First, the defeat of France in the 1870 Prussian war in which she lost influence and a reduction in her international ego. Second, the anxiety to implement Colbert’s mercantilist philosophy emphasized that any rising industrial power required to have both the source of raw materials and market extension under her control. Third and finally, as Europeans scrambled for Africa, France feared their traditional enemies could annex a remarkable share of the territory. Hence, from the outset, it was not the financial gains that many thoughts motivated France’s involvement in Africa but politics and national ego. It will only be later that France saw Africa as a cheap source of military manpower that could help balance demographic stagnation in France. This perception will later be reinforced by her experience in the two World wars. In this light, Iliffe (2007) holds that French colonial policy was characterized by the exploitation of rich resources from Africa. In the midst of all these benefits from colonization in Africa, Charles de Gaulle‘s decision to retain influence in Africa after decolonization in 1960 was driven by the need to persist with these benefits under neo-colonization. According to Abdurrahim (2014), in Africa, France uses a realist foreign policy in which states shape their foreign policies based on their national interests. To facilitate the implementation of this realist foreign policy, France will design the Franco-African summit that will cement France’s influence in her former colonies to date. Were France’s policies put in place through the Franco-African summits shaped to benefit France solely? This paper aims to present the Franco-African Summit and carry out a stocktake of France’s commitments through recommendations from the Franco-African Summit.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

344. Taking the road away from Europe – how far could Georgia go (and can it be reversed)?

Author:
Ghia Nodia
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Earlier this year, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moldova and Ukraine were granted official EU candidate status… but not Georgia. Instead, Georgia has been left behind on the waiting list, with its application due to be reevaluated by the EU sometime in 2023. Yet Georgia has an extremely pro-European society highly in favour of their country continuing its journey towards closer integration with the EU. So what happened? This CEPS Explainer argues that the ruling Georgian Dream party’s anti-Western rhetoric and democratic backsliding has actually diverted Georgia down a road away from its key Western allies. Until this is rectified, Georgia may be stuck on the waiting list for some time yet. But all hope is not lost – regardless of the government’s current actions and contradictory statements, Georgia’s highly active and pro-European civil society may hold the key in getting their country back on track towards its European future.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Politics, Democratic Backsliding, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Georgia

345. Understanding Russia’s perception of international agency in the context of the war against Ukraine

Author:
Andrey Makarychev
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dominated international politics in 2022 and this looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. But how did we get to this point in the first place? The core argument presented here is that Russian foreign policy agency – the intention and the ability to act as transgressor and challenger to the liberal international order, defined as the space for norms-based multilateralism – played the key role in the full-fledged restart of the war in Ukraine in February 2022. Taking a critical look at the five pillars of Russian agency, this inaugural CEPS Explainer concludes that the current model of Russia’s international agency is a precarious and vulnerable construct that is unlikely to survive the regime currently sat in the Kremlin.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Multilateralism, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

346. Europe’s Area of Maritime Interest in Northeast Asia

Author:
Philip Shetler-Jones
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Participation in the monitoring of UN sanctions on North Korea is Europe’s most prominent operational contribution to Indo-Pacific security, but is also characterised by a fragmented, bilateral approach that contradicts the trajectory of recent European policies that strive for a more meaningful and coordinated investment in this area. A coordinated European presence in the region built around the sanctions monitoring task is within reach, and steps taken to achieve it would dramatically enhance the policy coherence and impact of European action on Northeast Asian security.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and North Korea

347. Putin vs Monnet: European Resilience, Energy and the Ukraine War

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the Ukraine war escalates with no end in sight, Europe’s resilience is put to test. Nowhere is this clearer than in the energy sphere, where the crisis first created the perfect timing for Russia’s invasion and then became weaponised against Europe in the broader confrontation with the West. In this confrontation, two interpretations of resilience come to the fore: Vladimir Putin and Jean Monnet’s, with the former emphasising pain endurance and the latter transformation through crisis. The jury is out on whether Putin or Monnet will win the day, and whether and how the European Union will prove and strengthen its resilience. But at the height of this crisis, my bet today is squarely on Jean Monnet.
Topic:
Climate Change, Politics, European Union, Institutions, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

348. The Russian Economy Is Muddling Through the Sanctions War

Author:
Oleg Buklemishev
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The transatlantic campaign of sanctions against Russia after its aggression of Ukraine is unprecedented in scale and scope, involving not only dozens of democratic states but also many non-state actors. It imposes considerable barriers and additional cost to the functioning of the Russian economy, which is bound to undertake deep restructuring with far-reaching consequences for production and consumption processes. The current appreciation of the rouble and inflationary slowdown are not signs of improvement but rather the direct effects of the stabilisation measures undertaken and, in fact, bode ill for further economic development. Numerous problems have started to surface this summer and optimistic assessments on the basis of initial resilience of the Russian economy look premature. Russia currently lacks a strategic plan of economic restructuring under the new environment. The future course of events will depend on whether the private sector leads this restructuring with minimal losses or the government imposes its normative prospective, tilting the result farther from economic equilibrium.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

349. The Geopolitics of Clean Hydrogen – Opportunities and Challenges for Italy

Author:
Marco Giuli
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The emergence of clean hydrogen as an energy carrier promises to shape the future geography of the energy trade. Under growing contestation of interdependence, such a geography should be read through political lenses alongside commercial and technological ones. Generally, hydrogen is likely to reduce the geopolitical sensitivity of energy trade with respect to a fossil-fuel-based energy order by increasing the share of energy produced domestically, shifting geostrategic competition from a focus on grabbing resources to a focus on mastering technology and setting standards, and offering petrostates opportunities for economic diversification. Italy can exploit the opportunities offered by a hydrogen economy for enhancing its energy security and positioning in the regional energy trade. However, it should be careful with monitoring how geopolitical barriers such as regional instability may affect its hydrogen ambitions.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Trade, Hydrogen, Pipeline, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

350. A Scramble for Gas: Qatari LNG and EU Diversification Plans

Author:
Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Amidst a worsening geopolitical and energy crisis in Europe, the EU is scrambling to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as one component of its larger objective to reduce its overdependence on Russian gas. In 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia (140 bcm via pipeline and 15 bcm of LNG). Under its REPowerEU initiative, the European Commission aims to increase LNG imports to replace 50 bcm of Russian gas by the end of 2022.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Diversification, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Qatar