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702. Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall
- Author:
- Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was untypically high. This paper highlights the many reasons why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower going forward. Much of the catch-up potential has already been used up. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. They have major governance problems, so they need to carry out major structural reforms to be able to proceed with a decent growth rate, but many policymakers are still in a state of hubris and not very inclined to opt for reforms. They are caught up in state and crony capitalism. Rather than providing free markets for all, the West might limit its endeavors to its own benefit. Economic convergence has hardly come to an end, but it has probably reached a hiatus that is likely to last many years. The emerging economies need to improve their quality of governance and other economic policies substantially to truly catch up. For a decade or so, the West could take the global economic lead once again as in the 1980s.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
703. Taking off as a Global Power? China's Foreign Policy "Grand Strategy"
- Author:
- Sven Bernhard Gareis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The People's Republic of China has long been a very visible actor in international politics. With 1.4 billion inhabitants, it is the most populous country in the world, with a land mass of 9.6 million square kilometers bordering 14 states in East, South, and Central Asia. China has a long Pacific coastline, along which it claims vast areas of the South China Sea. A nuclear power since 1964, the People's Republic of China has the largest armed forces in the world, numbering approximately 2.3 million soldiers. China has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council since 1971; for many years, it has figured prominently in all decision making processes with global impact.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Central Asia
704. China's impact on conflict and fragility in South Asia
- Author:
- Clare Castillejo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- China is expanding its engagement across South Asia, with significant implications for the region's most fragile states. Western donors and peacebuilding actors are aware of this changing context and concerned about their resulting loss of influence. Yet they have so far failed to develop a coordinated response or to engage effectively with China regarding its impact on fragility within the region.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, Israel, and Asia
705. The global economy: Healing or still hurting?
- Author:
- Leo Abruzzese
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
706. Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China
- Author:
- David E. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The frenetic search for hydrocarbons in Africa has become so intense and wide ranging that there is planned or ongoing oil and gas exploration in at least 51 of the continent's 54 countries. Knowledge about Africa's geology is improving rapidly, generating great optimism about the continent's energy future. Onshore and offshore rifts and basins created when the African continent separated from the Americas and Eurasia 150 million years ago are now recognized as some of the most promising hydrocarbon provinces in the world. Offshore Angola and Brazil, Namibia and Brazil, Ghana and French Guyana, Morocco and Mexico, Somalia and Yemen, and Mozambique and Madagascar are just a few of the geological analogues where large oil fields have been discovered or are be-lieved to lie. One optimistic but quite credible scenario is that future discoveries in Africa will be around five timestheir current level based on what remains un-explored on the continent versus currently known sub-soil assets. If proven true, this could have a pro-foundly positive impact on Africa's future growth and strategic position in the global economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, America, Eurasia, Asia, Brazil, Yemen, Mozambique, Mexico, Morocco, Somalia, Angola, Ghana, Namibia, Guyana, and Moldavia
707. Crux of Asia: China, India, and the Emerging Global Order
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis and Sean Mirski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The rise of China and India as major world powers promises to test the established global order in the coming decades. As the two powers grow, they are bound to change the current international system—with profound implications for themselves, the United States, and the world. And whether they agree on the changes to be made, especially when it comes to their relationship with the West, will influence the system's future character. A close examination of Chinese and Indian perspectives on the fundamentals of the emerging international order reveals that Sino-Indian differences on many issues of both bilateral and global significance are stark.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, India, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and Singapore
708. U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications
- Author:
- Michael D. Swaine, Rachel Esplin Odell, Luo Yuan, and Liu Xiangdong
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship. The U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project analyzes the content of these attitudes through original surveys and workshops conducted in both countries. The project's findings have implications for policymakers seeking to reduce the likelihood of future bilateral conflicts.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
709. China's Policy on North Korea: Economic Engagement and Nuclear Disarmament
- Author:
- Mathieu Duchâtel and Phillip Schell
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the death of Kim Jong Il, in December 2011, the new leadership of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has taken important steps to further develop its nuclear weapon programme and to consolidate the programme's political status. These developments, which culminated in a nuclear test explosion in February 2013, suggest that the acquisition of a nuclear deterrent is a strategic goal, rather than a tactical bargaining chip for North Korea.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
710. Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges
- Author:
- James Manicom
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific
711. Virtuality, Perception and Reality in Myanmar's Democratic Reform
- Author:
- Victoria Christensen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the summer of 2011, the country of Myanmar has been experiencing rapid democratic reform. Headlines lauding these positive changes have become common-place in the international media. However, experts and academics who have been involved in the decade-long campaign to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar remain divided over how sincere these changes are. Some accuse the Government of carrying out “window-dressing” reforms to please the Western governments and enable the lifting of sanctions. They argue that the Government has a vested interest in maintaining the reins of power and that there is no incentive to make true democratic reforms. During a speech in Oslo in June 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmarese Pro-democracy leader described the recent reforms as positive but warned against blind faith in the process and pointed out the main challenges that remain unresolved – namely the ethnic issues and the ongoing imprisonment of political prisoners.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, Political Economy, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, United States, China, Tehran, Korea, and Southeast Asia
712. The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China
713. Productive Power and Policy Change in Global Finance: An Analysis of China's Financial Policy Framing in the Bretton Woods Institutions
- Author:
- Sandra Heep
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of China's increasingly influential role in global finance and the debate on the emergence of a “Beijing Consensus,” this paper examines whether the ideology that China promotes in the Bretton Woods institutions is conducive to the initiation of financial policy change at the international level. Drawing on Barnett and Duvall's (2005) conceptualization of productive power, Snow and Benford's (1988) framing theory and Freeden's (1996) understanding of ideology, the paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of international policy framing. Following an overview of China's rise in global finance, it identifies the core elements of the ideology that has been promoted by Chinese government officials in the Bretton Woods institutions since the onset of the global financial crisis. The paper argues that China's ruling elites will only be able to initiate a shift in the global consensus on acceptable financial policies if the frames that they propagate succeed in striking a balance between ideological continuity and change.
- Topic:
- Communism, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
714. Informal Institutions in Autocracies: Analytical Perspectives and the Case of the Chinese Communist Party
- Author:
- Patrick Köllner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Analyses of the shape and functioning of systems of political rule need to address informal institutions, which exist alongside and can relate to formal institutions in various ways. In this paper, I first discuss some analytical foundations of the study of such institutions. I then suggest that a focus on political regimes – understood as the configuration of formal and informal institutions shaping and reflecting the access to and the exercise of political power – can be particularly useful for analysing the shape and functioning of autocracies. Finally, I use such a regime focus to study the Chinese Communist Party and its leadership succession process, which is characterised by increasing institutionalisation and complementary as well as substitutive relations between formal and informal institutions.
- Topic:
- Communism, Political Economy, Political Theory, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
715. Kazakhstan: Waiting for Change
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Kazakhstan has long been viewed from the outside as the most prosperous and stable country in a region widely regarded as fragile and dysfunctional. The appearance of wealth, based largely on the conspicuous consumption of Almaty and Astana, its main cities, and multi-billion-dollar energy contracts – increasingly with China – hides, however, a multitude of challenges. An ageing authoritarian leader with no designated successor, labour unrest, growing Islamism, corruption, and a state apparatus that, when confronted even with limited security challenges, seems hard-pressed to respond, all indicate that the Kazakh state is not as robust as it first appears. Without a significant effort to push forward with repeatedly promised political, social and economic reforms, Kazakhstan risks becoming just another Central Asian authoritarian regime that squandered the advantages bestowed on it by abundant natural resources.
- Topic:
- Islam
- Political Geography:
- China, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan
716. Social Capital and Disaster Recovery: Evidence from Sichuan Earthquake in 2008
- Author:
- Chun Wing Tse, Jianwen Wei, and Yihan Wang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Social capital can help reduce adverse shocks by facilitating access to transfers and remittances.This study examines how various measures of social capital are associated with disaster recovery after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. We find that households having a larger Spring Festival network in 2008 do better in housing reconstruction. A larger network significantly increases the amount of government aid received for housing reconstruction. Furthermore, households having larger networks receive monetary and material support from more people, which also explains the positive impacts on recovery from the earthquake. As for other measures of social capital, connections with government officials and communist party membership do not significantly contribute to disaster recovery. Human capital, measured by the years of schooling of household head, is not positively correlated with housing reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
717. Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Ashley Hess
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states. This report utilizes the unclassified data available in the West on the trends in Chinese military forces. It relies heavily on the data in the US Department of Defense (DoD) Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, particularly the 2013 edition.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
718. U.S.-India Homeland Security Cooperation: Building a Lasting Partnership via Transportation Sector Security
- Author:
- Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, Ally Pregulman, Rob Wise, Briana Fitch, and Melissa Hersh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Given India's rapid development, the nation has become an increasingly vital world actor. India has the 11th largest economy in the world, and with its annual economic growth rate averaging 7 percent per year since 1997, it could surpass the United States and China to become the world's largest economy by 2050. This economic capacity facilitated billions of dollars in investments since 2006 to expand and upgrade India's defense and security capabilities, including the launch of its first nuclear- powered submarine and the ongoing acquisition of a fleet of aircraft carriers. The growth of India's economic and military sectors increases its strategic importance to the United States and other partners interested in ensuring stability and security in Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, South Asia, and India
719. U.S. Students in China: Meeting the Goals of the 100,000 Strong Initiative
- Author:
- Raisa Belyavina
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The 100,000 Strong Initiative, announced in November 2009 by President Obama, aims to increase to 100,000 the cumulative number of Americans studying in China over a four - year period. While the number of American students studying abroad for credit in Chin a has increased nearly fivefold in the last decade, the types of educational experiences undertaken by American students going abroad have changed as well. More than ever before, American students are going abroad on shorter, not - for - credit programs such a s study tours, internships, and volunteering abroad. The 100,000 Strong Initiative encourages all types of educational experiences for students in U.S. high schools, colleges, and universities.
- Topic:
- Education, Foreign Exchange, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Israel
720. China\'s Exports of Small Arms and Light Weapons
- Author:
- Mark Bromley, Paul Holtom, and Mathieu Duchâtel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- China has long been one of the world\'s most significant exporters of small arms and light weapons (SALW). It is also among the least transparent. At the same time, China has stated its commitment to preventing the illicit trade in SALW and formally recognizes the destabilizing effect that SALW transfers can have on peace and security, economic development and social stability.
- Topic:
- Crime, International Law, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
721. Patient Copayments, Provider Incentives and Income Effects: Theory and Evidence from China's Essential Medications List Policy
- Author:
- Brian K. Chen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- How do demand - and supply - side incentives interact, when there are potentially large provider income effects? We develop a simple model and empirically test it with data from China's Essential Medications List (EML) policy, which reduced patient copayments and changed provider incentives by removing a large source of revenue from primary care providers: drug dispensing revenues. Using a panel of patient - level spending and clinical data for Chinese patients with diabetes or hypertension over two and a half years, we find evidence of strategic provider response that dampened the impact of patient copayment reductions. Resource use and patient out - of - pocket spending did not change, when taking account of patient utilization outs ide primary care.
- Topic:
- Communism, Health, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
722. The Tenth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum
- Author:
- Walter H. Shorenstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Meeting after North Korea had raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula in the spring, participants in the Tenth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum focused on the implications for the Korean Peninsula of leadership changes in North and South Korea and especially China. Participants also focused on regional dynamics, including increased confrontation between China and Japan and various, sometimes conflicting, efforts to increase regional economic integration in Northeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
723. How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?
- Author:
- Mikkel Barslund, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Casper Worm Hansen, Thomas Harr, and Peter Sandholt Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This Working Document provides an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors' empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
724. Sailing Against the Current – China-U.S. Relations in the Next Stage
- Author:
- Yu Bianjiang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- In recent years, “rebalancing” has been a buzzword in the U.S.'s Asia-Pacific policy and naturally also in U.S.-China relations. Some believe this rebalancing has been quite successful and refer to this as the hallmark of President Barack Obama's first-term foreign policy. At the same time, others, both within and outside of America, have expressed different opinions. The most critical point is that while the U.S. administration has argued that rebalancing is an integrated strategy with military, diplomatic, and economic initiatives intended to strengthen U.S. involvement in the Asia-Pacific area, in practice, rebalancing has been depicted and implemented in more military terms, with the United States shifting its troops and resources from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the Asia- Pacific region. “The military soundtrack has the volume turned up too loud.”.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
725. China and the Arctic: China's Interests and Participation in the Region
- Author:
- Kai Sun
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- As China's presence in the Arctic grows, international attention on China in the Arctic also grows. This paper clarifies why China is interested in the Arctic and its role in joining the Arctic play, and touches on future trends in this regard. The paper begins with a discussion of China's recent Arctic capacity building and diplomacy, and the surge of interest in Arctic affairs by Chinese social scientists and strategists in recent years. China looks north for basically four reasons: it is influenced by environmental changes in the Arctic; it is drawn by the business opportunities arising from the opening of the Arctic passages and better access to Arctic resources; and it is also committed to maintaining good governance in the Arctic — which is also in its best interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Oil, Natural Resources, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
726. East Asia and the Arctic: Alaskan and American Perspectives
- Author:
- Jerry McBeath
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper concerns the US view of East Asian nations' involvement in the Arctic, emphasizing the perspective of Alaska, the only US Arctic state. It treats six different areas of US/Alaska policy: US national strategy for the Arctic; oil and gas exploration and development; marine transportation; fisheries; investment in infrastructure; and governance. The study finds few differences between the positions of Alaska and the United States, notwithstanding often-hostile rhetoric from leaders in the United States' farthest north frontier. In general terms, both Alaska and the United States have historically sought trade and investment ties with East Asian nations. China has now replaced Japan as Alaska's major trading partner, followed by South Korea and Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Economics, Food, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, East Asia, South Korea, Alaska, and Arctic
727. Fire on the City Gate: Why China Keeps North Korea Close
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- China tolerates the nuclear ambitions of North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, DPRK) for now because its interests in the neighbourhood are much wider and more complex than this single issue. Beijing and the West often work toward their shared goal of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula with contradictory approaches that reflect their different priorities. The West uses diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions and extended deterrence to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. Many Western policymakers believe the DPRK will denuclearise if sufficient costs are imposed and that Beijing holds the keys because the North is economically dependent on it. But China is reluctant to take any coercive action that might destabilise the regime and change a delicate geopolitical balance. It instead continues with diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation as the instruments it hopes will cause the leadership to denuclearise in the indeterminate future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
728. Defending an Open, Global, Secure, and Resilient Internet
- Author:
- Adam Segal, John D. Negroponte, and Samuel J. Palmisano
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Since the idea of a worldwide network was introduced in the early 1980s, the Internet has grown into a massive global system that connects over a third of the world's population, roughly 2.5 billion people. The Internet facilitates communication, commerce, trade, culture, research, and social and family connections and is now an integral part of modern life. Another 2.5 billion individuals are expected to get online by the end of this decade, mainly in the developing world, and further billions of devices and machines will be used. This enlargement to the rest of the globe could bring enormous economic, social, and political benefits to the United States and the world. New technologies could reshape approaches to disaster relief, diplomacy, conflict prevention, education, science, and cultural production.
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, Industrial Policy, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- China
729. Trade and the G20
- Author:
- John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
730. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Project: Organizational Capacities and Operational Capabilities
- Author:
- Ian Easton and L. C. Russell Hsiao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Revolutionary advances in unmanned technologies and the prospects offered by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in surveillance, targeting and attack appear to have captured the attention of senior civilian and defense officials in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Given the PRC’s expanding strategic interests, and the associated requirement for an improved command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) infrastructure, UAVs represent a transformational capability for the Chinese military.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Surveillance, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
731. Half Lives: A Preliminary Assessment of China’s Nuclear Warhead Life Extension and Safety Program
- Author:
- Ian Easton and Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Nuclear warheads and their associated delivery vehicles (ballistic and cruise missiles) represent the most powerful and potentially destabilizing weapons in the world today. While rapid advances in information and communications technology have endowed conventional weapons systems with the “intelligence” and precision to take on a greater number of strategic missions–for example targeting aircraft carrier groups and critical command nodes–nuclear weapons remain the sine qua non of deterrence. Indeed, while every nation’s leadership fears war to some degree, the threat of war is only truly horrific for a leader who faces an enemy armed with nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Communications, Weapons, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
732. Obama’s Second Term in the Asia-Pacific Region: Reflecting on the Past, Looking to the Future
- Author:
- Sabrina Tsai
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The Asia-Pacific region proved to be one of the top priorities of U.S. foreign policy during President Obama’s first term. The East China Sea and South China Sea territorial disputes; Kim Jong-un’s succession to the North Korean leadership and subsequent provocations; and China’s rapid military modernization over the last two decades were and continue to be among some of the top security issues for the Obama Administration. This paper outlines Obama’s Asia policy in the first term and assesses the trajectory of the U.S. “rebalance” strategy in the second term, taking into account the numerous personnel changes in Obama’s senior-level foreign policy team.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- China, North Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
733. CCTV's International Expansion Expansion: China's Grand Strategy for Media
- Author:
- Anne Nelson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- China Central Television has come a long ways since its founding as a domestic party propaganda outlet in 1958. The domestic service has been supplemented by an international service, boasting three major global offices in Beijing, Washington, and Nairobi, and more than 70 additional international bureaus. The quality of CCTV’s journalism depends on both the region in which it’s produced, and the subject matter’s sensitivity in Beijing. On one hand, CCTV produces sophisticated long-form reports on complex international issues such as climate change; at the same time, its reporting on the Chinese Communist Party echoes the party line. CCTV’s biggest impact may be in regions where China is directing its international investments. The Nairobi operations complement extensive investments in African infrastructure, many of them in communications; China is also pursuing critical investment in Latin America and Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Media, Journalism, and Propaganda
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Latin America, and Southeast Asia
734. The Long Shadow of Chinese Censorship: How The Communist Party's Media Restrictions Affect News Outlets Around the World
- Author:
- Sarah Cook
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- The Long Shadow of Chinese Censorship: How the Communist Party’s Media Restrictions Affect News Outlets Around the World provides a survey of this phenomenon and its recent evolution as it pertains to the news media sector, though similar dynamics also affect the film, literature, and performing arts industries. Specifically, this report focuses on six types of media outlets based outside mainland China that together reach news consumers in dozens of countries: major international media; local outlets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America; mainstream media in Hong Kong and Taiwan; exile Chinese outlets providing uncensored news to people in China; and media serving Chinese diaspora communities around the world.
- Topic:
- Media, Journalism, and Censorship
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
735. Shadow Banking and Systemic Risk in Europe and China
- Author:
- Sara Hsu, Jianjun Li, and Yanzhi Qin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- We compare the European and Chinese shadow banking systems. While the European shadow banking system is better developed than the Chinese shadow banking system, herd behavior and other factors in European markets create systemic risk, which contributed in part to the financial crisis. Dispersion of risk across the "under-developed" shadow banking system in China has led to some cases of localized, concentrated risk, but not to systemic risk. We discuss proposed European shadow banking regulation and its implications for systemic risk, and discuss what lessons China might glean from such policies. We also discuss what lessons China's diverse and systemically uncoordinated shadow banking sector might provide for Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regulation, Risk, and Shadow Banking
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
736. China’s Military Strategy in the Asia-Pacific: Implications for Regional Stability
- Author:
- Ian Easton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The military modernization program being undertaken by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is changing the security environment in the Asia-Pacific. Driven by a strategy to achieve the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership’s goals through the exploitation of advantageous conditions, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is investing in capabilities that are aimed at eroding the conventional military superiority of the United States and its allies in the region. Should the PLA’s modernization campaign succeed the likelihood of conflict and regional instability can be expected to increase as China’s authoritarian leadership is empowered with greater coercive leverage over its neighbors.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Regional Integration, Modernization, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia-Pacific
737. The People’s Liberation Army General Political Department: Political Warfare with Chinese Characteristics
- Author:
- Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Political warfare is a critical component of Chinese security strategy and foreign policy. All nation-states seek to influence policies of others to varying degrees in order to secure their respective national interests. Political warfare seeks to influence emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals in a manner favorable to one’s own political-military objectives. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) rely on political warfare as a means to shape and define the discourse of international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, and History
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
738. Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth
- Author:
- Jane T. Haltmaier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6-1/2 percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1-1/2 percent by 2030.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, GDP, Employment, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
739. The Emergence of China in the Middle East
- Author:
- James Chen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- During the 9th century, Arab traders regularly plied lucrative maritime routes that connected the Persian Gulf to southern China by way of the Indian Ocean. This commercial activity, which mostly involved jade, silk, and other luxury goods, went on for centuries and became part of what is now known as the Silk Road. In some ways, the world is now witnessing a restoration of that ancient trading relationship between two civilizations—except that oil and consumer goods have replaced jade and silk.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Arabia
740. Chinese in Georgia
- Author:
- Jiayi Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- In the two decades after independence, Georgia's open economy and lax immigration policies have engendered, for the first time, immigration from far outside of the region. On the streets of Tbilisi, the most conspicuous of these migrants are from India, China, and the countries of Africa. Of those from India, a substantial number are students of medicine, or enrolled in other professional courses. Africans in Georgia are mostly driven by work opportunity with a few students in higher education institutions. Chinese immigrants, on the other hand, are almost entirely driven by economic opportunities. A modern Chinese presence in Georgia began in the 1990s with the beginning of Chinese state-owned investment ventures in the region, as well as a burgeoning restaurant scene. In 2000s, this expanded to encompass a trickle and then an influx of Chinese migrant shop owners and market vendors. The third wave of migration occurred in 2010 as a result of contract construction workers. As of today, there are around 1,000 Chinese now divided into five groups: specialists, businessmen, shopkeepers, contract workers, and those in the restaurant and catering sector. This paper will focus on the history of Chinese migrants in Georgia, driving causes, their level of integration (or lack thereof), vulnerabilities, and their status in Georgian society. It will also cover increasingly large-scale economic ventures in the country, the status of Chinese as a foreign language in Georgia, and the role of the PRC Embassy in the Chinese community.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Immigration, and Minorities
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and Georgia
741. The EU's and China's institutional diplomacy in the field of climate change
- Author:
- Pietro De Matteis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This Occasional Paper aims at providing a new perspective on the relevance of climate change for the EU's external action. Considering its linkages with various areas such as energy security, economic growth and diplomacy, and indeed its importance in terms of future political stability, climate change is a major 'game-changer' in international relations. The issue of climate change, and how to deal with it, therefore presents governments with a significant opportunity to reshape the international order in the light of the major global transformations currently underway. The development of the climate change regime presents the EU with both an opportunity and a threat, in as much as it may either accelerate Europe's decline as a foreign policy actor or, on the contrary, reinvigorate its diplomatic ambitions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
742. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions
- Author:
- Shanker A. Singham
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil
743. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia
- Author:
- Joseph S. Nye and Richard L. Armitage
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United States and Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world's most important alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today's challenges and opportunities in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia's dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, Asia, and North Korea
744. What Friends Are Made Of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China
- Author:
- Georg Strüver
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- With China's emergence as a global economic and political power, it is commonly assumed that its leadership's influence in international politics has increased considerably. However, systematic studies of China's impact on the foreign policy behavior of other states are rare and generally limited to questions regarding economic capabilities and the use of coercive power. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on China's global political rise by taking a broader perspective. Drawing on voting data from the UN General Assembly for the last two decades, it explores the plausibility of different explanations for foreign policy similarity: economic, diplomatic and military linkages; domestic institutional similarities; and parallel problem‐solving processes. The logistic regression analyses find that high similarity levels correlate with shared regime characteristics and comparable patterns of sociopolitical globalization. The results further indicate that foreign aid and arms trading seem to help buy support in global politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
745. The Politics of Contestation in Asia: How Japan and Pakistan Deal with their Rising Neighbors
- Author:
- Daniel Flemes, Georg Strüver, and Hannes Ebert
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Rising powers have attracted tremendous interest in international politics and theory. Yet the ways in which secondary powers strategically respond to regional changes in the distribution of power have been largely neglected. This article seeks to fill this gap by presenting a systematic comparative analysis of the different types of and causes of contestation strategies undertaken by secondary powers. Empirically, it focuses on two contentious regional dyads in East and South Asia, exploring how structural, behavioral, and historical factors shape the way in which Japan and Pakistan respond, respectively, to China's and India's regional power politics. The paper concludes that the explanatory power of these factors depends on the particular context: in the case of Japan, China's militarily assertive regional role has invoked the most significant strategic shifts, while in the case of Pakistani contestation, shifts in polarity have had the largest impact on the strategic approach.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Japan, China, and India
746. Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict
- Author:
- T.X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As America ends its military commitment to Iraq and continues its drawdown in Afghanistan, a lively discussion has emerged on what future challenges the Nation faces. High on every list is the requirement to deal with a rising China. In his remarks to the Australian Parliament on November 17, 2011, President Barack Obama stated, “As we end today's wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority.” As part of this re-balancing to Asia, the administration has stated that it seeks “to identify and expand areas of common interest, to work with China to build mutual trust, and to encourage China's active efforts in global problem-solving.” Clearly, the United States seeks prudent and coordinated political, economic, and military actions to further integrate China into the international system.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
747. Battle Lines in the Chinese Blogosphere: Keyword control as a tactic in managing mass incidents
- Author:
- Keegan Elmer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the role of keyword control, in other words the blocking and unblocking of search keywords, on Sina's popular microblog platform during media campaigns over politically sensitive issues in China. The author examines media campaigns in Chinese newspapers, television, microblogs and other media forms during two separate large-scale protests in December of 2011 in Guangdong province, one in the village of Wukan and the other in the town of Haimen. This paper uses these case studies to examine which acts of keyword control might be part of a set of coordinated directives in a broader media campaign over a particular politically sensitive issue. Observations based on these case studies suggest that changes in keyword control on microblogs might be the earliest detectable sign of shifts in the government's position in their response to politically sensitive issues.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- China
748. Assessing EU Leadership on Climate Change. The Limits of Diffusion in EU Relations with China and India
- Author:
- Diarmuid Torney
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- The EU has for a long time claimed the title of “leader” in the international politics of climate change. However, existing research has generally failed to specify whether the EU's purported leadership has induced the “followership” of other states. This working paper seeks to shed light on this somewhat neglected topic by examining the attempted diffusion of climate change norms, policies, and institutions by the EU to China and India. The paper makes two principal arguments. First, the development of Chinese and Indian climate change policy should be understood as primarily domestic developments. Nonetheless, there was limited evidence of diffusion from the EU, but there was significant variation between the Chinese and Indian responses to the EU's diffusion attempts. The Chinese response was one increasing accommodation; the Indian response was a more straightforward case of resistance. Second, domestic factors help to explain the variation in the Chinese and Indian responses to EU attempts at diffusion and, related, the observed pattern of diffusion from the EU to China and India. Particularly important is the degree to which new external ideas and concepts resonate with pre-existing domestic ideas and concepts. The paper thus paints a picture of limited EU leadership, but also suggests that the EU attempts to secure “followership” could be enhanced by paying greater attention to the domestic politics and preferences of third countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China and India
749. China's leadership: handover The changing of the guard
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- On November 8th this year China will begin the once-a-decade process of changing its leaders, with the launch of the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This will, by coincidence, come just two days after the US presidential elections. Both events will have momentous repercussions, both for the countries involved and for the world, but they will mark a study in contrasts. Unlike the US, China's succession battles are being waged in near secrecy, yet observers are already sure who the next president and premier will be. Less clear is what exactly China's new leadership will stand for. This report will examine their backgrounds and policy positions, asking what we can expect from the incoming administration.
- Topic:
- Communism, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
750. Delivering Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth: The Case of China
- Author:
- Junjie Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- China has achieved miraculous economic growth over the past 30 years to become the world's second largest single-country economy. The economic boom is attributed to China's market-oriented reforms, which prioritize economic growth. However, growing the gross domestic product (GDP) at any cost has created a series of social and environmental problems. Consequently, China's economic losses due to pollution and environmental degradation accounted for 10.51 percent of gross national income in 2008, according to the World Bank.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China