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  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Lack of funding represents the most important factor behind the slow pace of destruction of the 45,000 tons of stockpiled chemical weapons in Russia, already reportedly 2-5 years behind schedule. Further delays of the process will not only endanger the environmental and health situation around the seven storage sites in Russia but may also severely undermine the Chemical Weapons Convention as a whole and thus have serious global implications.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Over the past decade the South Caucasus region has faced bloody internal conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and to a lesser extent South Ossetia. It continues to display potential for instability as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia exhibit the combined characteristics of war-torn societies and countries in transition. Given the geostrategic importance of the Caucasus and the strong interests of regional and international powers—particularly in the potential energy output—renewed armed confrontations would have serious economic, political and security implications across national borders. Moreover, spill-over into other volatile zones could bring about the open intervention of powerful neighbors, such as Iran, Iraq, Russia and Turkey, and could threaten larger peace and security arrangements.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Abkhazia
  • Author: Alexei Arbatov, Dag Hartelius
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Ten years after the end of the Cold War, Russian leaders still have to recognize not only the irreplaceable importance of the Western countries and Japan as partners, but also the rapidly growing relative importance of the European Union, since the special relationship with the U.S., based on strategic deterrence, is becoming less relevant. The development of relations with the EU should now be at the top of the Russian agenda. This presents the EU with a certain challenge but is also an enormous opportunity for developing enlarged markets and advancing improved security. At the same time, the U.S. will remain a key partner for Russia in international affairs and in the handling of harmful Soviet legacies, such as disposing of nuclear and chemical wastes. Also, Russia will have to move towards deeper regional economic integration in East Asia instead of approaching the problems in this region from a traditional security perspective.
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Moscow
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The EastWest Institute (EWI) is currently running a one year project (July 1998-July 1999) project entitled 'Boundaries Without Barriers: The Role of Sub-Regional Relations in the Eurasian Space'. This is part of a highly successful research and policy-oriented project on the role of subregional relations in the new Europe that the EWI has been running since 1996. The project identifies emerging patterns of (principally) intergovernmental relations between groups of states within the OSCE space; assesses the contribution these subregional relations make to comprehensive security building; and promotes greater recognition of subregionalism in the policies and practices of wider international organization.
  • Topic: Government, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The perception that the disintegration of the Soviet Union constituted a major challenge to Russia's security is of a political and psychological, rather than an economic nature. The countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia—Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—are neither an irreplaceable resource base for the Russian economy nor the only available market for its non-competitive products. Any efforts to see it otherwise will induce the region to strengthen its economic and military security with the help of outside powers as a buffer against Russia's ambitions for greater control.
  • Topic: Security, Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Angola
  • Author: Linda Weiss
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: The Asian financial crisis has re-opened the debate about the role of the state in the region's industrialisation. Just when there seemed to be growing acknowledgment across the economic and political disciplines that certain kinds of state involvement were vital to the rapid upgrading of the Northeast Asian economies and that understanding what made states effective or ineffective was a crucial issue, along came the financial hurricane. Profound disarray of an economic and social nature has been the most immediate and important consequence of this watershed event. Theoretical disarray has followed closely in its path. This paper seeks to inject some theoretical rigour into the discussion of the Asian crisis. State power in the Asian setting - whether and in what way the state's transformative capacity is weak or robust - and how it relates to the impact of international markets is central to the argument that follows.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Richard M. Auty
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The IMF model of the economic transition stresses the role of macro policy reform. It concludes that rapid reform to a market economy is preferable to slow reform because late reformers experience very steep transition recessions and severe contractions in government revenues. However, the predictive power of the IMF model has weakened through the late-1990s. This is because it under-estimates the role of initial conditions that include the natural resource endowment as well as institutional capital and the legacy of produced capital. This paper demonstrates how the predictive power of the IMF model can be improved by taking account of the impact of natural resource abundance for the transition. Resource abundance can feed corruption and diminish the urgency of reform, thereby intensifying the adverse effect of a retarded transition. It can also amplify the contraction of the non-booming tradeable sector due to Dutch disease effects. These adverse features are likely to be more severe where the resource endowment creates point source socio-economic linkages, as in mining, as opposed to the diffuse linkages associated with crop production by yeoman farmers. The detrimental effects of resource abundance are also likely to be more severe where institutional capital is deficient. Consistent with such a resource-constrained variant of the IMF model; resource-abundant Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan both delayed their reforms and both exhibit high levels of corruption relative to the transition economies as a whole. Also, economic recovery in Kazakhstan is slower than the original IMF model predicts because investment in minerals strengthened the exchange rate and retarded economic diversification. In the case of Uzbekistan, a natural resource endowment that yielded especially buoyant crop revenues (that eased the foreign exchange constraint) helps to explain why the growth collapse is less than the unadjusted IMF model predicts for such a slow reformer. This explanation is still too simple, however. Uzbekistan also benefits from robust social capital and limited obsolete industry, both of which retard the decline in government revenue. Finally, the resource-constrained IMF model suggests that the Uzbek policy of gradual reform represses exports and intensifies economic distortions. This will lock the economy into a staple trap and lead to a growth collapse, as the experience of many resource-abundant developing market economies testifies
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, Environment, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Kazakhstan, Asia, Uzbekistan, Dutch
  • Author: Jian Sun
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Since the beginning of the Chinese economic reforms in 1978, there has been a series of effort to reform the labour compensation practice in state-owned enterprises to strengthen the link between pay and productivity. Despite the reforms, however, rapid increases in wage rates occurred in state-owned enterprises. Moreover, although state-owned enterprises have much lower productivity gains than non-state enterprises, they pay substantially higher wages and have faster wage growth.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Abdur Chowdhury
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992–3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994–5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. One obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such a dramatic reduction in poverty. Given so many years of sustained economic performance the obvious question is: how could events in Asia unfold as they did?
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Lyndelle Fairlie
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: A Northern Dimension for the European Union is now taking shape. Originally a Finnish initiative, it tries to take a regional view of the Baltic area which includes member states, EU applicants such as Poland and the Baltic states and Russia. The Northern Dimension specifically mentions the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad. There is very little time left to develop an Action Plan which the EU Council can adopt at the December Helsinki summit. This essay addresses the question of whether or not the EU will use Northern Dimension to solve its Kaliningrad dilemma.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: Michael P. Taylor
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises held its first two sessions in the fall of 1999, convening practitioners and area experts to discuss Indonesia immediately before and after that country's presidential selection. Participants debated the composition of the new government, the prospect of further regional separatism, and the future role of the military, and the political and social impact of the continuing financial crisis, among other issues. Many expected that the broad coalition-style government that emerged under the leadership of Abdurrahman Wahid would offer short-term stability at the expense of a decisive policy direction. The center would hold in the short term but be weakened.
  • Topic: Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Indonesia, Asia
  • Author: Stephan Haggard, Ralph Cossa, Daniel Pinkston, Akiko Fukushima
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: The U.S. government has been generally supportive of, and an active participant in, a broad variety of multilateral security dialogue mechanisms that have emerged in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. These efforts at building trust and confidence, both at the official and at the nongovernmental or so-called track-two level, have the potential for enhancing Northeast Asian regional security. All Northeast Asian nations express support for such efforts, and the current trend toward multilateralism is generally consistent with U.S. foreign policy objectives in Asia as an important complement to America's bilateral security arrangements, which remain the foundation of U.S. security policy in Asia.
  • Topic: Security, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Israel, Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Christodoulakim Olga
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Abstract: Although industrial production and growth in Greece during the interwar period has attracted considerable attention, there has not been any serious challenge either in qualitative or quantitative terms to the orthodoxy established in the period itself. The literature usually sees the 1920s as a landmark in the industrialisation of the country and a time when Greek manufacturing achieved an "unprecedented prominence". The momentum given to industrial expansion in the 1920s was encouraged by institutional changes brought about by government policy aimed at reducing social tensions stemming from unemployed refugees gathered in urban areas, by the depreciation of the drachma and heavy tariffs. The swift demographic changes that happened in the country following the Asia Minor debacle, however, have played a pivotal role in the literature in explaining industrial growth in the 1920s. According to conventional belief, the arrival of the refugees created the preconditions for an industrial expansion in the 1920s. The sudden increase in the population of the country has been linked to industrial growth in three ways: firstly, the abundance of cheap labour gathered in urban centres exerted downward pressures on wages; secondly, the refugees it is argued, brought with them entrepreneurial skills, their skilled labour, in short contributing to an improvement of the human capital in Greece, and took initiatives that promoted industrial development; finally, the sudden expansion of the domestic market because of the increase in the population boosted demand which consequently stimulated industrial production. The carpet industry, an industry that emerge in the 1920s and was mainly run by refugees, is usually mentioned as a representative example of the impact that refugees had in promoting new industries and entrepreneurial skills in the country.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Greece, Asia
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Yuriy Voronin
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: Russia is facing new difficulties as a result of negative processes in the economy, the deterioration of interethnic relations, and the social polarization of its society, which have created a direct threat to the security of the urban life in the country. This threat is a consequence of the increase in the proportion of the population living below the poverty line, the stratification of society into a small group of rich citizens and a vast majority of needy citizens, and the escalation of social tension, especially in the industrial cities of the Urals, Siberia, and other regions. At present there is a twenty-eight fold difference between the richest ten percent of the Russian population and the poorest ten percent. Although this unequal distribution of wealth is not very different from what existed in the pre-Revolutionary period in Russia, the striking discrepancy is shocking to a population that was accustomed to an ideological commitment to equality and -- despite the collapse of Communism -- continues to retain the socialist ideal of economic parity. Citizens perceive that they have been "robbed" of the assets that they were supposed to have inherited from the Soviet state. Ironically, the new holders of wealth are an alliance of former Communist Party bureaucrats, organized criminals, and dishonest businesspersons. This so-called "gangster industrial complex" is as oblivious to the needs of the people as was the former Soviet ruling elite.
  • Topic: Security, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Asia
  • Author: William G. O'Neill
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: The term “human rights” evokes a wide variety of reactions. Many of those working in international development, commercial lending, and diplomatic institutions regard human rights as highly political and confrontational intrusions on their activities. Many in the international assistance community and the military view human rights as a threat to “neutrality” that may undermine access to populations needing assistance or the success of peacekeeping operations. Some governments in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa dismiss the concept of human rights as a western creation that fails to respect local culture and traditions and undermines state sovereignty. Perhaps the most favorable views of human rights are held by the international public, which is appalled by flagrant onslaughts against fundamental human decency and dignity represented by such practices as genocide, ethnic cleansing, and the use of starvation of civilian populations as a weapon of war.
  • Topic: Human Rights, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Roy Grow, Burton Levin, Al Porte, Robert White
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: "China will choose its own destiny, but we can influence that choice by making the right choice ourselves - working with China where we can, dealing directly with our differences where we must.
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: United States, China, America, Asia
  • Author: C.H. Kwan
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Thailand
  • Author: Hideo Sato
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: The People's Republic of China is now a major economic and military actor in the international relations of the Asia Pacific region, and thus we cannot afford to ignore China in reviewing the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade and a half, at an annual rate of about 10 percent, and it is expected to sustain a similar pattern of growth for the foreseeable future. Beijing's defense spending has also been increasing every year at a double-digit level for some time. Consequently, China's domestic and foreign policies will from now on significantly influence the course of international relations in this region, and perhaps elsewhere as well.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Beijing, Asia
  • Author: Michael Swaine
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: I'll speak on the question of Chinese military defense modernization and its implications for the Asian security environment. I'll try to keep my remarks at a level where we can talk about broader issues and concepts, and the implications of all this for regional evolution in the security environment, U.S. security interests, U.S.-Japan relations, etc. I want to cover four different areas in my remarks.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Asia
  • Author: Koji Murata
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: This paper examines the importance of the Korean-American alliance for Japan from a historical perspective. The U.S.-Japan alliance is important for the security of South Korea because it provides logistic support for the U.S. activities on the Korean peninsula. This is obvious if we look into the reasons why the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation were revised in September 1997. At the same time, the U.S.-ROK alliance is also important for the security of Japan because it functions as a buffer or shield for Japan. Bounded on the north by China and Russia, and only thirty miles from the closest Japanese island, the Korean peninsula is the fulcrum where the major powers' interests in Asia converge. Tokyo is about one hour from Seoul by jet aircraft.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Asia, Tokyo, Korea, Island
  • Author: Mike Douglass
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: Two interwoven processes—urbanization and globalization—circumscribe contemporary social, political, and economic transformations taking place in East Asia. While governments, businesses, and communities are caught up in one of the most intensive and condensed processes of urbanization in world history, the forces propelling much of the expansion of cities and urban networks now operate on an international plane. Urban- oriented investments in production for world markets, global intra-firm commodity trade within transnational corporate networks, and the hyper-circulation of finance capital are fundamental features of what has been summarized as the “local-global” context of development. Urbanization and globalization have become interdependent and mutually reinforcing: the shaping of urban form and the dominant activities within a given city reflect its mode of linkage with globalized circuits of capital; at the same time, these circuits require a structuring of the built environment to create the physical geography of international urban networks needed for real-time decisionmaking on a global scale.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: David Shambaugh
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: It is a pleasure to be here at Stanford to discuss China's new military leadership, and to share some preliminary findings from my research on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). One key feature of the new leadership in China today, following the passing of patriarch Deng Xiaoping, are the new faces to be found in the military. The PLA High Command today (see Appendix) is almost entirely new. There has been almost total turnover of the top twenty to thirty military officers in China during the last three years. This includes all the commanders, deputy commanders, and political commissars in all seven military region commands; the General Staff, Logistics, and Political Departments; the two major educational institutions of the PLA, the National Defense University and the Academy of Military Sciences; the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense and its successor body the general Armaments Department, and other bodies. The Central Military Commission itself has seen more than half of its membership turn over in the last few years. Only the top echelon of the Second Artillery, China's ballistic missile forces, has gone relatively untouched. I anticipate much more personnel turnover and organizational reform in the next few years as the PLA proceeds with its policy of downsizing, upgrading, and streamlining its force structure.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Sang-Mok Suh
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: Just like many other crises, the Korean currency crisis came suddenly. In mid–November 1997, headlines in the Korean press consisted mostly of presidential election stories. At that time the presidential race was very close; the Grand National Party candidate, Lee Hoi–Chang, was making a dramatic comeback, while the National Congress for New Politics candidate, Kim Dae–jung, was making his best effort to maintain his narrow lead. Thus, when President Kim Young Sam announced on November 19 his decision to fire key economic policy–makers on the grounds of mismanaging the economy, most Koreans were surprised at the news and questioned the president's motivation. Two days later they were completely shocked to learn that the Korean government was asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency standby loans because the Korean foreign reserve level was very low at $7.3 billion and most foreign financial institutions were unwilling to roll over their short–term loans to Korea.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Michel Oksenberg, Elizabeth Economy
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: China's performance in numerous environmental areas—emission of greenhouse gases, use of ozone-depleting substances, reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions, or exploitation of fishing grounds in the western Pacific—will help determine the success of various global and regional environmental protection efforts. And as the World Bank's recent study Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century documents, the quality of life within China will be greatly affected by efforts to protect air, water, and soil, all of which are under heavy assault.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Wu Xinbo
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Daniel Okimoto
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: By almost any criterion of success—be it cost–effectiveness, risk–reward ratio, multiplier effects, or sheer longevity, the Japan America Security Alliance (JASA) stands out as one of the most successful alliances in twentieth century history. For the United States, chief architect of a global network of military relationships, JASA is arguably the most important of its many bilateral alliances. In terms of historic impact, JASA is comparable to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a multilateral alliance that restructured the European security landscape in 1949. For nearly a half–century, JASA and NATO have functioned as the bedrock on which the Cold War security systems of Asia and Europe have been constructed.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Robert D. Blackwill, Kristin Archick
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Despite Asia's recent currency troubles, most strategists and economic experts believe that in the period ahead Asia will continue to be one of the most dynamic regions of the globe and pose one of the biggest strategic challenges for the West. The United States and Europe are already closely intertwined with East Asia economically, and the region's future potential for economic development remains extraordinary. As Asia's global economic weight increases, its political influence on the world stage will likely do the same. Similarly, as the West's economic interdependence with East Asia grows, any breach of the peace in the region will importantly affect the United States and Western Europe.
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Michel Oksenberg, Elizabeth Economy
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: The rise of China in world affairs is a major feature of our era. An increasingly contentious debate has erupted in the United States over how to respond to this development. Figuring out a successful policy toward China is no easy task, but any sound strategy must be rooted in a sense of history.
  • Topic: International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Thomas I. Palley
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Over the last nine months the global economy has been roiled by a financial crisis that has moved through Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea. Japan has also been affected by its wake, as has Russia. So too has Latin America, where Brazil has had to raise interest rates substantially to fend off an incipient currency crisis.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Japan, Asia, Brazil
  • Author: Daniel K. Tarullo, John Lipsky, Bruce Steinberg, David Jones
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Mr. Daniel K. Tarullo: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We'd like to get started promptly so that we can end promptly. Welcome to this morning's session on the update of world economic conditions. This is the first in what we anticipate to be a series of updates, perhaps quarterly, sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, probably right here in this room, part of a continuing effort to focus on world economic conditions, both for themselves, and as they intersect with foreign policy concerns.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, South America, Latin America, North America
  • Author: Paolo Guerrieri
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: This paper analyses changes in the trade patterns of Central/Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and the potential role in the global/European division of labor of these transforming economies. In the reform period (1989–1995) trade pattern of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced significant changes. The most pronounced trend was the strong expansion of trade with the OECD countries, in particular with the European Union, whereas CMEA intraregional trade literally collapsed. This massive geographical reorientation of trade has determined also significant changes in the commodity composition of trade of CEE in the same period.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: Barry Eichengreen, Richard Kohl
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: Early optimists hoped that Eastern Europe might be able to emulate the high-performance economies of Asia once the shock of liberalization was absorbed. The ingredients of the East Asian “miracle,” in this view, were rapid accumulation based on high investment in physical and human capital, productivity growth based on technology transfer through licensing and direct foreign investment, rapidly expanding exports able to support industrial specialization and scale economies, and a strong state capable of guiding the development process and solving coordination problems. Emulating this recipe could provide the basis, it was hoped, for the expansion of exports and buoyant economic growth more generally.
  • Topic: Development, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: Eugene Spiro
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The EastWest Institute convened in partnership with the Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research (KIMEP) International Conference on Banking Policies on December 9-12, 1998. The purpose of the conference was to present Kazakh officials, academicians and bankers with practices (best and otherwise) in CEE and the West on bank privatization and reduction of the state's role in banking; costs and benefits of foreign strategic investment in the banking sector; and issues related to bank supervision, regulation and deposit insurance.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Kazakhstan, Asia
  • Author: Dag Hartelius, Natasha Randall
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Over the last year we have witnessed a deteriorating climate in Russian-Western relations - or at least this has been the perception. The Russian financial crisis has accelerated the trend in Russia to blame the West - in particular the US - for their troubles. In America and Europe a new debate has been spawned on what kind of Russia we are now dealing with. Old truths, or old perceptions, are being questioned and relations are being reassessed.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, America, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The Communist dominated Duma sent a stern message to President Yelstin on September 7th by rejecting his nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, for the second time. The vote was 273 against and 138 for (with one abstention). While Chernomyrdin's showing improved substantially from the Duma's first ballot, he still fell far short of the 226 votes needed for Duma approval. Furthermore, his gains came largely from Zhirinovsky's nationalist faction, which has a crass history of trading votes to “the highest bidder.” Yelstin's opposition, on the other hand, benefited from the support of independent deputies comprising a group called “Regions of Russia”: their approval of Chernomyrdin dropped from 86% to 50% in the second round.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: G.B. Madison
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: Globalization is a multifaceted phenomenon. In this paper I seek to discern some of the challenges it poses, as well as some of the opportunities it offers. To this end, attention is focused on three major aspects of globalization: the economic, the cultural, and the political. Particular consideration is given to the political-economic lessons to be learned from the recent East Asian financial (and economic) crisis; the homogenizing and civilizing ramifications of globalization in the realm of culture; and the relation between economic globalization, the threat it poses to the traditional notion of national sovereignty, and the prospects for the development of civil society, the rule of law, and democratic governance. The paper concludes by arguing that, as a result of the emerging global economy, we are witnessing the emergence of a new form of capitalism, qualitatively different from both 19th-century laissez-faire capitalism and 20th-century “managed” capitalism.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Markets
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Young Jong Choi
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Japan's preference toward regional institutions has received a great attention in recent years in relation to the development of regional institutions in Asia (exclusively East Asia) and the Pacific (the broader Asia-Pacific region). Japan's policy toward Asia and the Pacific has often been characterized by "hegemonic defection" and Japan as a "reactive state". The former indicates the absence of Japan's leadership in regional institution building (Mack and Ravenhill 1995: 8). The latter portrays Japan as incapable of pursuing pro-active policies in regional affairs because of its consensus-oriented culture, historical legacy of colonialism, domestic political gridlock and most of all extreme dependence upon the U.S. security umbrella (Calder 1988; Hellmann 1988; Pyle 1992; Curtis 1993).
  • Topic: Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Kellee S. Tsai
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Our country does not permit the establishment of private banks. We must continue to investigate and impose discipline on non-banking financial institutions and other creditors that charge high interest rates. This is clearly one of the most important measures for ensuring order in the entire financial system.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Daniel A. Sharp, Ezra Vogel
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: The American Assembly is embarking on the third and fourth phases of a project on "China/U.S. Relations in the Twenty-First Century: Fostering Cooperation, Preventing Conflict." The goal of this four phase project is to use the convening and consensus-building power of The American Assembly to produce a set of policy recommendations for the Clinton administration that will promote a constructive long-term relationship between the two countries.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Andrew Krepinevich
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Paul Giarra
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: K.C. Fung, Lawrence Lau
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: China's presence in the world economy continues to grow and deepen. The foreign sector of China plays an important and multifaceted role in the country's economic development. At the same time, China's expanded role in the world economy is beneficial to all its trading partners. Regions that trade with China benefit from cheaper and more varied imported consumer goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. China also provides a large and growing export market. While the entry of any major trading nation in the global trading system can create a process of adjustment, the outcome is fundamentally a win-win situation. It is a simple but powerful lesson from economics that freer international trade and investments benefit all parties concerned.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Frederick Z. Brown, William Clinton, Jiang Zemin, William Itoh
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Next week, when President Jiang Zemin comes to Washington, it will be the first state visit by a Chinese leader to the United States for more than a decade. The visit gives us the opportunity and the responsibility to chart a course for the future that is more positive and more stable and, hopefully, more productive than our relations have been for the last few years.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, China, New York, Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: John A. Riggs
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: The 14th Aspen PacRim Energy Workshop directed attention to continued strong prospects for growth in electric demand, and thus increased need for major additions to generation capacity. In particular, the meeting focused on the potential role of natural gas/LNG in the fuel mix for new generation capacity in the region. This Moderator's summary represents my views only in attempting to capture key points of the discussion; any errors or distortions are mine alone.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Dr. LESLIE H. GELB (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Good evening. Welcome, members of the Council on Foreign Relations. Welcome, members of the Council on Foreign Relations Corporate Program and special guests, and our C-SPAN audience. We're here tonight to discuss and explore the substantive issues in the United States-Chinese relationship that will arise in the upcoming summit meeting between Chinese President Jiang Zemin and U.S. President Bill Clinton.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia