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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography Asia Content Type Working Paper

151. Central banks and capital flows

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is unwelcome.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

152. What does a free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific mean to China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Tingsong Jiang
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This paper examines the impact of the FTAAP on the national and regional economies in China using a suite of general equilibrium models: APG-Cubed, a dynamic global model; GTAP, a static global model; and CERD, a static China model with regional dimension. The impact on the Chinese economy of the APFTA is also compared with those of other forms of FTAs such as the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and the East Asia FTA (EAFTA).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

153. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:
Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China and Asia

154. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles

Author:
Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

155. China's Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries

Author:
Yuqing Xing
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

156. Development Path of China and India and the Challenges for their Sustainable Growth

Author:
Yuefen Li and Bin Zhang
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The segmentation of global manufacturing and services provided China and subsequently India with a golden opportunity to make full use of their absolute advantage—low cost yet educated labour—to integrate into the world economy within a comparatively shorter period of time than some earlier industrialisers. Though international trade functioned as a vent of surplus in view of the narrowness of their domestic markets at the beginning of their economic catch-up, the label of export-led model may not reflect the real picture as imports underwent dramatic increases during their respective growth periods, in particular for China. Foreign direct investment has played a pivotal role in their economic growth and has major presence in international trade and investment in leading sectors of both countries, giving rise to certain special features and weak links for their economic expansion and sustainability of fast economic growth. To maintain more broad-based, fast and balanced growth, it seems that both countries have to redress sectoral imbalances, encourage technology upgrading and cope with future changes in demographic profiles which constituted a trigger to fast economic growth at the time of their respective economic reform.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

157. East Asian regionalism: Much ado about nothing?

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
In the decade since the financial crises, East Asia has become the most active site in the world for the negotiation of preferential trade agreements. Region-wide functional collaboration now goes substantially beyond trade, however, ranging across such areas as financial cooperation, disaster management, transborder crime, tourism, energy and environmental issues.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

158. Leading Without Followers: the Political Economy of Japan's ICT Sector

Author:
Kenji E. Kushida
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Despite global leadership by Japanese firms in sectors such as automobiles, precision equipment, and various high tech components, Japanese firms in the ICT sector have followed a persistent pattern of leading without followers. While leading the domestic market to ever-high levels of sophistication, sometimes beyond that of most other advanced industrial countries, Japanese ICT companies have retreated dramatically from international markets. Moreover, in technology after technology, Japanese ICT firms invest heavily, undertake extensive R, and for network technologies, deploy infrastructure rapidly, only to find that global technological trajectories shift in a different direction. While globally successful Japanese industries were able to use their domestic market as a springboard into international markets, Japan's ICT sector became decoupled from global markets, trapping Japanese firms in the domestic market.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and Asia

159. Export Productivity, Finance, and Economic Growth: Are the Southern Engines of Growth Different?

Author:
Alessandra Guariglia and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using a panel of 139 countries over the period 1992-2003, we analyse the links between export productivity, economic growth and financial development indicators. We then investigate whether the links observed in China, India and Brazil systematically differ from those observed in other countries in the sample. We find that both GDP per capita and investment generally exert a positive and significant effect on export productivity. Except for Brazil, financial development is not an important determinant of export productivity. Moreover, except for Brazil, export productivity plays a positive effect on growth, and so does financial development for both China and Brazil, but not for India. Finally, in both India and Brazil, FDI is negatively associated with growth.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, Brazil, and South America

160. Export Productivity and Specialization in China, Brazil, India and South Africa

Author:
Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses the patterns of export productivity and trade specialization profiles in the China, Brazil, India and South Africa, and in other regional groupings. In doing so, the investigation calculates a time varying export productivity measure using highly disaggregated product categories. The findings indicate that export productivity is mainly determined by real income and human capital endowments. Importantly, the study reveals significant differences in the export productivity and specialization patterns of countries with comparable per capita income levels. For instance, China's export productivity and implied export sophistication is in line with that of countries with higher per capita incomes, including some OECD industrial economies.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

161. Foreign Direct Investment from China, India and South Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New or Old Phenomenon?

Author:
John Henley, Stefan Kratzsch, Tamer Tandogan, and Mithat Külür
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The burgeoning literature on outward foreign direct investment from emerging markets has largely focused on analysing the motives of investors as reported by parent companies. This paper, instead, focuses on firm-level investments originating from China, India or South Africa in fifteen host countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis is based on a sub-set of firms drawn from the overall sample of 1,216 foreign-owned firms participating in the UNIDO Africa Foreign Investor Survey, carried out in 2005. The sample of investments originating from China, India and South Africa is analysed in terms of firm characteristics, past and forecast performance in SSA over three years and management's perception of ongoing business conditions. Comparisons are made with foreign investors from the North. The paper concludes that while investors in SSA from the three countries are primarily using their investment to target specific markets, they are largely operating in different sub-sectors. While there appear to be specific features that firms from a given country of origin share, there are no obvious operating-level features they all share apart from market seeking.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, and South Africa

162. Measuring the Competitive Threat from China

Author:
Rhys Jenkins
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

163. Ownership Reform, Foreign Competition, and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Approach

Author:
Shujie Yao, Zhongwei Han, and Genfu Feng
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

164. The Rise of the Southern Economies: Implications for the WTO-Multilateral Trading System

Author:
Silvia Nenci
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of the emerging southern economies – China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) – as both economic and political actors, is having significant and far-reaching impact on the world economy. Notwithstanding the increasing amount of study and research, there are still important knowledge-gaps with respect to a range of likely consequences of the dynamism of the Southern Economies. One of these gaps concerns the implications for the WTO-multilateral trading system. The present paper proposes a review of the southern participation in the multilateral integration process and suggests a methodology to assess the impact of CIBS' rise on the future of the WTO system. Through the analysis of the trajectories of 'impact' of the trade channel, the paper draws some suggestive remarks.
Topic:
International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

165. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

166. The Williamsburg Conference

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Coming in the midst of a very heated U.S. presidential election campaign, where the U.S. is faced with numerous foreign policy challenges in the Asia-Pacific region and at a critical juncture in Islam's relationship with the rest of the world, the Asia Society convened over 50 Asian and American leaders at a very opportune time in Bali, Indonesia from April 3-6, 2008. Delegates discussed the characteristics of Islam in Asian countries with multiethnic or multireligious populations like India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. They also suggested ways of tackling radicalism and extremism by alleviating poverty, improving education, and reforming prisons and rehabilitation Centres, to name a few. During the second half of the conference, delegates engaged in a conversation about the evolving U.S. role in Asia. Contemporary affairs like the protests in Myanmar and Tibet, engagement with North Korea, and the impact of the Iraq war on U.S. foreign policy towards Asia were analyzed in light of the coming presidential election. Asian leaders were invited to give advice to the new U.S. president. Finally, young leaders from the Asia Pacific region shared their thoughts on what kinds of leadership and values are needed in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Asia, and Southeast Asia

167. China's Role as a Trade Bridge for Expanding Regional and World Trade

Author:
Min Gong and Wenpu Li
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
To understand China's trade relations with the US, Japan, and South Korea, we estimate a vector autoregressive model (VAR) model to investigate the trade interactions among these four countries using data from the period of the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2005. We find substantial Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)-induced indirect trade from Japan and Korea to the US through China, and between Japan and Korea through China. These indirect trade flows lead to increases in China's trade deficit with Japan and Korea as well as China's trade surplus with the US. The indirect trade flows through China also indicate the importance of China's role as a trade bridge. From the viewpoint of world trade growth, as a trade bridge, China contributes to the stable growth of the regional and world economies. However, China's role as a trade bridge may negatively affect its long-run economic growth.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

168. Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy

Author:
Richard J. Anderson
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The European Union 27 currently rely on Russia for almost 38% of their imported natural gas; this dependency will become significantly greater if European states implement their currently formulated energy policies. With plans to phase out nuclear power in several European countries, the EU goal to reduce coal consumption thereby lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and the depletion of domestic sources of gas, reliance on Russia will rise to 50 to 60% of all gas imports within the next two decades if different energy policies are not adopted. The EU and greater Europe will soon find themselves in an extremely dangerous position due to the everincreasing dependence on Russian natural gas. These countries must work together now to produce a coherent diversification strategy.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

169. China's Economic Fluctuations: Implications for its Rural Economy

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since market reforms began in 1978, China's economy has shown cyclical fluctuations. These cycles of change appear in obvious statistical patterns-faster growth and then slower growth, higher price inflation and then lower inflation, stronger investment flows and then weaker investment-and all are accompanied by other cyclical fluctuations in a range of variables and policy initiatives. Most of these fluctuations tend to move together. Their beauty is that they allow analysis of which fluctuations influence others and, by extension, which policies might make a difference in managing China's economy. In this regard, the cyclical interaction between China's formal urban economy and its rural economy is particularly relevant for the issues facing Chinese policy makers today.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

170. Aiding Transparency: What We Can Learn About China Exim Bank's Concessional Loans

Author:
Paul Hubbard
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Chinese government, through the China Exim Bank, is pledging billions of dollars worth of concessional lending to the developing world. More information on these lending practices can be gleaned from Chinese language sources than is readily available in English. However, this material is insufficient to draw more than tentative conclusions about the real nature and scope of China's concessional lending. Over 48 countries have agreements with China for concessional loans. An average loan of US$20-30 million is made available to Chinese exporting firms to develop infrastructure and facilities in developing countries. While these loan sizes are not huge when compared to other aid flows, China's status as the dominant lender of concessional loans amongst some recipients makes this program significant. Finally, it is still not clear if the loans could be considered Official Development Assistance according to the DAC definition.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

171. When Dragons and Kangaroos Trade: China's Rapid Economic Growth and Its Implications for China and Australia

Author:
Jikun Huang, Jun Yang, and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China's economy has experienced remarkable growth since economic reforms were initiated in the late 1970s and pushed forward by a number of complementary policies. Since the mid-1980s, rural township and village-owned enterprises (TVEs) development; measures to provide a better market environment through domestic market reform; fiscal and financial expansions; the devaluation of exchange rate; trade liberalisation; the expansion of special economic zones to attract foreign direct investment (FDI); the state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform; agricultural market liberalisation, and many other reforms have all contributed to China's economic growth. In response, the annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) was about nearly 10% in 1979–2004 (National Bureau of Statistics of China 2005).
Topic:
Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

172. Contemporary Chinese Views of Europe

Author:
Karine Lisbonne-de Vergeron
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Undoubtedly, the Chinese currently think of Europe, and of the European Union, primarily in economic terms. Since 2004, the EU has been China's first trading partner, accounting for 15% of its overall external trade in 2006, with a bilateral increase of 25% from 2005. Overall, bilateral trade between China and the EU has increased more than sixty-fold since 1978 to reach nearly €255 billion in 2006. In return, China is the EU's second largest trading partner, after the United States, and in 2006 became the largest source of EU imports, amounting to approximately €192 billion, or 14.4% of the total, a 21% increase from 2005. Over the same period, EU exports to China increased by 23% to approximately €63 billion.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

173. India and its Neighbours: Do Economic Interests Have the Potential to Build Peace?

Author:
Charu Lata Hogg
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Until a decade ago, India was regarded largely as a poor developing country with low visibility on the global political and economic front. A multitude of factors, most prominently its emerging global economic strength, have led India not only to redefine its self-image but also to adopt a new political role both internationally and within its immediate neighbourhood.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

174. Growth and Responsibility: A Review of Business Action for Africa between the UK and German G8 Presidencies 2005-7

Author:
Richard Reeve
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In March 2005 the report of the Commission for Africa called for a sea change in the way the business community engaged in the development process in Africa. The G8 Gleneagles summit that July made a series of commitments on boosting African development, while in London a new international network was launched to bring G8 and African business leaders together to build on the momentum of the Commission and the UK's dual G8 and EU presidencies. Business Action for Africa (BAA) declared its aims as: to present a clear African and international business voice to promote growth and poverty reduction; to promote more positive, balanced perceptions of Africa; and to develop and showcase good business practice.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and Germany

175. The Role of China in Asia: Engine, Conduit, or Steamroller?

Author:
Beth Anne Wilson, Jane T. Haltmaier, Shaghil Ahmed, Brahima Coulibaly, Ross Knippenberg, Sylvain Leduc, and Mario Marazzi
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper assesses China's role in Asia as an independent engine of growth, as a conduit of demand from the industrial countries, and as a competitor for export markets. We provide both macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the impact of U.S. and Chinese demand on the output of the Asian economies by estimating growth comovements and VARs. The results suggest an increasing role of China as an independent source of growth. The microeconomic analysis decomposes trade into basic products, parts and components, and finished goods. We find a large role for parts and components trade consistent with China playing an important and increasing role as a conduit. We also estimate some regressions that show that China's increasing presence in export markets has had a negative effect on exports of some products for some other Asian economies, but not for other products, including those of the important electronic high-technology industry.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

176. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Export Prices: Assessing Some Cross-Country Evidence

Author:
Robert Vigfusson, Nathan Sheets, and Joseph Gagnon
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A growing body of empirical work has found evidence of a decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in a number of industrial countries. Our paper complements this work by examining pass-through from the other side of the transaction; that is, we assess the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices (denominated in the exporter's currency). We first sketch out a streamlined analytical model that highlights some key factors that determine pass-through. Using this model as reference, we find that the prices charged on exports to the United States are more responsive to the exchange rate than is the case for export prices to other destinations, which is consistent with results in the literature suggesting that import price pass-through in the U.S. market is relatively low. We also find that moves in the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices over time have been significantly affected by country and region-specific factors, including the Asian financial crisis (for emerging Asia), deepening integration with the United States (for Canada), and the effects of the 1992 ERM crisis (for the United Kingdom).
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Asia

177. Measurement and Inference in International Reserve Diversification

Author:
Anna Wong
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper analyzes international reserve diversification by examining changes in quantity shares of currencies held in foreign exchange reserves. It discusses alternative methodologies for constructing quantity shares and applies the preferred methodology to three sets of data on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves: quarterly aggregate International Monetary Fund's Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (IMF COFER) data, quarterly IMF COFER data for industrial- and developing-country groups, and annual data for 23 individual countries that disclose the currency composition of their foreign exchange reserve holdings. What can one infer from available data about the diversification of foreign exchange reserves since 1999? The analysis suggests four conclusions: (1) The behavior of the quantity shares of the US dollar and the euro in total reserves is consistent with net stabilizing intervention; their quantity shares tend to rise when these currencies are declining and vice versa. (2) The principal driver of this stabilizing diversification over the period 1999Q1–2005Q4 is Japan. (3) The industrial countries as a group but excluding Japan do not indicate stabilizing diversification. (4) The nonindustrial countries as a group display stabilizing diversification over short periods of only a few quarters. In summary, the aggregate data conceal much diversity in the practices of individual countries.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Asia

178. Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States

Author:
Yuji Genda, Ayako Kondo, and Souichi Ohta
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
We examine effects of entering the labor market during a recession on subsequent earnings and employment for Japanese and American men, using comparable household labor force surveys. Previous analyses focus on search theoretic and implicit-contract arguments, which have their strongest effects on more educated workers. We argue that, in a country like Japan which has a dual labor market, there is an additional mechanism that affects mainly less educated workers. Namely, these workers are more likely to be trapped in the secondary sector if they graduate during a recession. We find a persistent, strong negative effect on earnings for less educated Japanese men, in contrast to no long-term effect for less educated American men; also, a substantial part of the effect for less educated Japanese men is attributed to the decreased probability of regular employment. The effect for the more educated group is more or less similar in both countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, America, Israel, and Asia

179. China’s Energy Governance: Perception and Reality

Author:
Edward A. Cunningham
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
As observers outside of China warn of a looming Chinese endgame in global energy assets, manipuated by Beijing, leading policymakers inside of China are facing considerable challenges governing major energy companies—especially those that the state owns. Chinese President Hu Jintao’s recent tour of African states and rumors of the first Chinese takeover of an overseas listed com- pany have attracted critical attention and spurred much discussion. Most analysis of China’s energy governance has placed the central government in the driver’s seat. The reality is that this perspective is grossly misleading.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Imperialism, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
China and Asia

180. Economic Growth and India's Future?

Author:
Joydeep Mukherji
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Recent optimism about India is based on the view that the country may finally be on a higher growth trajectory after more than a decade of halting economic reform. Spurred by a balance of payments crisis a decade ago that pushed the government of India to nearly defaulting on its foreign debt, a series of coalition governments have slowly deregulated the once most-regulated economy outside the communist world. Over the years, the government has enlarged the role of market forces, given more freedom to the private sector, and cut barriers to domestic and foreign competition. At the same time, India's state governments have gained considerable autonomy from the central government, making India into the federal state envisaged in its constitution.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, and Asia

181. India's New Entrepreneurial Classes: The High Growth Economy and Why it is Sustainable?

Author:
Sunil Bharti Mittal
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
I am Francine Frankel, director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India, and it is my great pleasure this evening to introduce our speaker for CASI's Annual Lecture, Sunil Bharti Mittal, the founder, chairman, and group managing director, Bharti Enterprises. I hardly need tell this audience that Bharti Tele-Ventures is India's leading telecom conglomerate and its largest mobile service operator.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, and Asia

182. The Asian Economic Revolution and Canadian Trade Policy

Author:
John Whalley
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper discusses the broad orientation of Canada's trade policy relative to two major historical phases of development based on a secure national market behind the National Policy from 1879 until the 1930s, and progressive integration with the United States (US) through Bilateral Agreements (1930s), the Auto Pact (1965), the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (1987) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (1994). Currently, Canada exports approximately 85% to the US, but imports from China account for 8% and are growing at over 20% a year. Sharply unbalanced (surplus) trade with the US is counterbalanced by unbalanced deficit trade with China. A scenario of elevated growth in Asia (principally China, India, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN) poses challenges of relative disintegration from North America and growing global integration centered on Asia. Seemingly a series of implications follow; including positioning Canada within the emerging network of regional agreements in Asia, more resourcebased and Western Canada focused trade and infrastructure development, and responding to capital market integration with Asia. Broader issues include the potential adjustments facing Central Canada as Asian imports of manufactures displace both imported manufactures from the US and domestic production are raised.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Asia, and North America

183. Trade, Development and the Doha Round: A Sure Bet or a Train Wreck?

Author:
Daniel Drache
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper explores the strategy and assumptions that are pushing the Doha Round into dangerously troubled waters, and it assesses the different agendas on the table. It summarizes how we reached the current deadlock, and examines the state of the WTO's legal dispute mechanism. It then critically assesses how divergences play out in the key policy areas of water exports, generic drugs, textile quotas, service-sector liberalization, and agricultural subsidies. Lastly, it will try to answer the question of whether Doha is 'a sure bet, or a train wreck' by looking at several of the prospects and possible scenarios that face the WTO post-Hong Kong. What is now evident is that a target deal seems more distant than ever. It would appear that evolution is not going to be kind to the WTO. The Doha Round is too complex which increases the possibility of failure; too intrusive to assuage many of global civil society's concerns and too anti-development for numerous countries in the Global South to come on board. Paradoxically, many countries are proving to be resilient and innovative when faced with the negotiating impasse and are not pushing the panic button. The global economy is not drifting towards protectionism and the core trading nations seem ready to accept a less dynamic WTO.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
China and Asia

184. Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact on the Trading Fortunes of other Asian Economies

Author:
Alan J. Ahearne, John G. Fernald, John W. Schindler, and Prakash Loungani
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work (Ahearne, Fernald, Loungani and Schindler, 2003) on whether China, with its huge pool of labor and an allegedly undervalued exchange rate, is hurting the export performance of other emerging market economies in Asia. We continue to find that while exchange rates matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters far more. This suggests the potential for exports of all Asian economies to grow in harmony as long as global growth is strong. We also examine changes in export shares of Asian economies to the U.S. market and find evidence that dramatic changes in shares are taking place. Many of these changes are consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China moves into the product space vacated by the Asian NIEs or with greater integration of trade across Asia in the production of final goods. Nevertheless, China's dramatic gains in recent years do increase the pressure on Asian economies, particularly in ASEAN and South Asia, to seek areas of comparative advantage.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and Asia

185. China and the Multilateral Trading System

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper reviews China's multilateral and preferential trade policies. It reviews the demanding terms of China's WTO accession, its current tariff and trade regime and its participation in the Doha Round negotiations and the institution's regular activities. The analysis concludes that China's trade policies are broadly supportive of a rules based multilateral trading order and its behavior at the WTO is that of a status quo power rather than one seeking major systemic changes. The discussion then turns to China's regional trade initiatives. China has been extremely active in negotiating these and their implications remain uncertain. Concerns about an East Asian fortress, though, appear misplaced. Directly, and through their impact in inducing others to respond, these FTAs could provide a powerful impetus to the process of competitive global liberalization. Countries that do implement agreements with China will find it relatively easy to open their markets to other developing countries. There is also a risk however that the proliferation of FTAs will lead to web of overlapping agreements that could make the trading system unnecessarily complex.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

186. Intellectual Property Rights as a Key Obstacle to Russia's WTO Accession

Author:
Matthew Ocheltree and Sherman Katz
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia has been in the process of seeking membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) since June 1993. Currently, the United States is the only major economic power that has yet to finalize a bilateral market access agreement with the Russian Federation. Most observers of the situation concur that the enforcement of intellectual property rights laws remains, along with agriculture, one of the two major hurdles to Russian accession to the World Trade Organization.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

187. Regional Inequality, Industry Agglomeration and Foreign Trade: The Case of China

Author:
Yin Ge
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How do foreign trade and foreign direct investment affect regional inequality? Foreign trade and investment may affect internal economic geography, and the resulting industry agglomeration may contribute to regional inequality. This paper provides empirical evidence supporting this linkage. The results indicate that the increasing regional inequality in China has been accompanied by an increase in the degree of regional specialization and industry agglomeration. Foreign trade and foreign investment are closely related to industry agglomeration in China. Industries dependent on foreign trade and FDI are more likely to locate in regions with easy access to foreign markets, and exporting industries have a higher degree of agglomeration.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

188. Financial Sector Development and Growth: The Chinese Experience

Author:
Mingming Zhou and Iftekhar Hasan
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper documents the financial and institutional developments of China during the past two decades, when China was successfully transformed from a rigid centralplanning economy to a dynamic market economy following its unique path. We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China by employing a panel sample covering 31 Chinese provinces during the important transition period 1986-2002. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, institutions, and instruments have been robustly associated with economic growth in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

189. Excess Credit and the South Korean Crisis

Author:
Bassam A. Fattouh and Panicos O. Demetriades
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We provide a novel empirical analysis of the South Korean credit market that reveals large volumes of excess credit since the late 1970s, indicating that a sizeable proportion of total credit was being used to refinance unprofitable projects. Our findings are consistent with theoretical literature that suggests that soft budget constraints and overborrowing were significant factors behind the Korean financial crisis of 1997-98.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Korea

190. Trade Liberalization, Environment and Poverty: A Developing Country Perspective

Author:
M.S. Quresh
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper revisits the pollution haven hypothesis in the context of Pakistan by offering a systematic analysis of its trade and production patterns. Using bilateral trade statistics from 1975-2003, we test the hypotheses that Pakistan's net exports of pollutionintensive products have increased to the OECD countries. We also investigate if the stringency of environmental governance in the importing countries plays a role in determining Pakistan's exports of pollution-intensive products. The results reveal that there has been a change in the composition of output and exports towards pollutionintensive manufacturing that parallels the opening of the economy. Overall, the findings appear to be in favour of the pollution haven hypothesis and call for effective environmental policy response for poverty alleviation and sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

191. International Finance and the Developing World: The Next Twenty Years

Author:
Tony Addison
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Much has changed in international finance in the twenty years since UNU-WIDER was founded. This paper identifies five broad contours of what we might expect in the next twenty years: the flow of capital from ageing societies to the more youthful economies of the South; the growth in the financial services industry in emerging economies and the consequences for their capital flows; the current strength in emerging market debt, and whether this represents a change in fundamentals or merely the effect of low global interest rates; the impact of globalization in goods markets in lowering inflation expectations, and therefore global bond yields; and the implications of the adjustment in global imbalances between Asia (in particular China) and the United States for emerging bond markets as a whole. The paper ends by noting the paradox that today we see ever larger amounts of capital flowing across the globe in search of superior investment returns, and yet the financing needs of the poorer countries are still largely unmet.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

192. Roaring tiger or lumbering elephant?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In the past, there has been plenty of scepticism about India's economic prospects: for many, Charles De Gaulle's aphorism regarding Brazil, that it was a country with enormous potential, and always would be, seemed to apply equally well to the South Asian economy. While the 'tiger' economies of East Asia were enjoying economic take-off on the back of investment- and export-led growth, the lumbering Indian elephant seemed set to be a perpetual also-ran in the growth stakes. Yet following a series of reform efforts, first tentatively in the 1980s, and then with much more conviction in the 1990s, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and so too India's growth prospects. High profile successes in the new economy sectors of information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO), along with faster economic growth, triggered a widespread rethink regarding India's economic prospects, and a wave of foreign portfolio investment flowed into Indian markets. Perhaps India was set to be a tiger after all.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, East Asia, Asia, and Brazil

193. BRICSAM and the Non-WTO

Author:
Agata Antkiewicz and John Whalley
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
We discuss recent regional trade and economic partnership agreements involving the large population, rapidly growing economies (BRICSAM: Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa, ASEAN, and Mexico). Perhaps 50 out of 300 agreements that exist worldwide involve BRICSAM countries; most are recently concluded and will be implemented over the next few years. Along with extensive bilateral investment treaties, mutual recognition agreements, and other country to country (or region) arrangements they are part of what we term the non-WTO. This paper aims to document and characterize the agreements and analyze their possible impacts. Agreements differ in specificity, coverage and content. In some treaties there are detailed and specific commitments, but these also co-exist with seemingly vague commitments and (at times) opaque dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms. Whether these represent a partial replacement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) process for newly negotiated reciprocity based on global trade liberalization or largely represent diplomatic protocol alongside significant WTO disciplines is the subject of this paper.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

194. China in the World Trading System

Author:
John Whalley
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper discusses China's trade policy stance following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2002. Three broad issues are considered. The first is the extent to which WTO accession helps China in dealing with various key trade issues, including anti-dumping and the textiles and apparel trade. The second is China's participation in regional trade agreements post WTO accession. The third is the implementability of China's accession commitments in key service areas (banking, insurance, telecoms). The issues now for China are less the merits of WTO accession, and rather its trade policy decisions given WTO membership.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

195. How Bargaining Alters Outcomes: Bilateral Trade Negotiations And Bargaining Strategies

Author:
Deborah Elms
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This article considers bargaining strategies used by government negotiators in the context of bilateral trade disputes. I argue that trade officials reach the most durable agreements by using an integrative, or value creating, strategy and avoiding the use of threats. By contrast, a highly distributive, value claiming strategy coupled with loud public threats is unlikely to result in a durable agreement and frequently leads to deadlocked negotiations. The irony, however, is that American officials use the latter approach more frequently in bilateral trade disputes, rather than the former. These strategies are usually chosen unconsciously in response to perceptions of losses that drive negotiators to select risky approaches to resolve disputes
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

196. U.S. Trade Policy Toward China: Discrimination and its Implications

Author:
Rachel McCulloch and Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The bilateral relationship with China has become a major focus of U.S. trade policy. This paper examines recent U.S. policy toward imports from China, highlighting important explicitly and implicitly discriminatory elements. Discriminatory restrictions on U.S. trade with China protect competing domestic industries as well as non-Chinese foreign suppliers with an established presence in the U.S. market. Unlike discriminatory U.S. treatment of Japan in the 1980s, in which "gray-area" measures like voluntary export restraints were prominent, most U.S. actions toward China are fully consistent with current WTO rules, including the special terms of China's 2001 WTO accession. However, as with earlier discriminatory actions directed primarily at Japan, U.S. trade policy toward China is likely to have complex effects on global trade flows and may produce outcomes far different from those intended.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

197. Emerging Trends in India's Foreign Trade Under the Globalised Regime

Author:
Irfan Ahmad
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
According to IMF, 'Globalisation may be defined as the growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through increasing volume and variety of cross border transactions in goods and services and of capital inflow and also through the more rapid and wide spread diffusion of technology'. The world economy has been emerging as a global or transnational economy. A global economy is one which transcends the national borders unhindered by artificial restrictions like government restrictions on trade and factor movements. Globalisation is a process of development of the world into a single integrated economic unit. This process is a move towards a borderless regime of free trade based on competition. The globalisation has four parameters, that is, (i) Reduction of trade barriers so as to permit free flow of goods and services across national frontiers. (ii) Creation of an environment in which free flow of capital can take place. (iii) Creation of environment, permitting free flow of technology, and (iv) Creation of an environment in which free movement of labour can take place in different countries of the world.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

198. Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia

Author:
Pekka Sulamaa and Mika Widgrén
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia's terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

199. Prospects for Regional Free Trade in Asia

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Frustrated with lackluster momentum in the WTO Doha Round and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and mindful of free trade agreement (FTA) networks centered on the United States and Europe, Asian countries have joined the FTA game. By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and had negotiated but not implemented another seven. Asian nations are also actively negotiating some 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners, including Australia, Canada, Chile, the European Union, India, and Qatar. China has been particularly active since 2000. It has completed three bilateral FTAs—Thailand in 2003 and Hong Kong and Macao in 2004—and is initiating another 17 bilateral and regional FTAs. However, a regional Asian economic bloc led by China seems distant, even though China accounts for about 30 percent of regional GDP. As in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, many Asian countries are pursuing FTAs with countries outside the region. On present evidence, the FTA process embraced with some enthusiasm in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere more closely resembles fingers reaching idiosycratically around the globe rather than politico-economic blocs centered respectively on Beijing, Brussels, and Washington.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, Washington, Canada, India, Beijing, Asia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Hong Kong, Brussels, and Macao

200. The Chinese Economy: Prospects and Key Policy Issues

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia