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12. Lessons from Afghanistan's History for the Current Transition and Beyond
- Author:
- William Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's history provides important insights and lessons for the 2011 to 2014 transition and beyond, but differences with the past must be taken into account. As the 1933 to 1973 decades demonstrate, the country can be stable and effectively governed, but that stability was anchored in the two pillars of traditional local governance and a centralized though weak state, both of which were gravely damaged after 1978. Given the country's history of chronic succession problems and associated conflict, the next presidential election, if successful, would be the first peaceful transfer of leadership since 1933 and only the fourth since 1747. Expectations about the pace of progress must be modest and the dangers of overly ambitious reforms leading to violent reactions recognized. Regional countries could derail peace prospects, and planning around such spoilers may be needed. The difficulties of reaching a peaceful solution during a military withdrawal, and the adverse consequences when such efforts fail, were demonstrated during the period from 1986 to 1992. The period after the Soviet withdrawal shows the potential and limitations of Afghan security forces: holding onto Kabul and other cities is probably the most that can be hoped for in the current transition. The option of arming and paying militias is dangerous because it opens the door to instability and predatory behavior. The Afghan economy is in much better shape than it was during and after the Soviet period, and a deep economic contraction in coming years needs to be avoided. Afghanistan will depend heavily on outside financial support for many years, and such support must not be abruptly cut back or stopped. Effective national leadership is critical during transitions. It is important not to overlearn from history, for example, Afghanistan's problematic experience over the past half-century with political parties, which are essential to successful democratic systems.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Islam, War, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
13. Making Peace When Disaster Strikes: Sri Lanka, Aceh and the 2004 Tsunami
- Author:
- Howard B. Schaffer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- On the day after Christmas 2004, a powerful 9.0 magnitude earthquake under the Indian Ocean off of northern Sumatra sent massive waves crashing against the coastlines of countries as far away as Kenya and Madagascar. This tsunami killed or left missing some 226,000 people and displaced an estimated 1.7 million more in fourteen Asian and African countries.1 Damage to property—infrastructure, residences, government buildings, and commercial establishments—was enormous. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, and the Maldives were the most seriously affected. Dramatically filmed on the cameras and cell phones of local inhabitants and the many western tourists caught up in the catastrophe, the tsunami attracted instant and extensive worldwide attention and sympathetic response. Foreign governments, international agencies, and international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) alike quickly undertook what became a global effort to assist local authorities to rescue and rehabilitate the victims and begin rebuilding the extensive stricken areas.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Peace Studies, Poverty, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, India, Asia, and Sri Lanka
14. Detained and Denied in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- In August 2010, General David Petraeus, Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, announced a shift in U.S. strategy. The United States “cannot kill or capture our way to victory,” he warned. Rather, we must earn the trust of the Afghan people.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, War, and Prisons/Penal Systems
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
15. China and Inter-Korean Clashes in the Yellow Sea
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The deadly provocations by North Korea in the Yellow Sea in 2010 – the Ch' ŏ nan sinking and the Yŏnp'yŏng Island shelling – drew condemnation and limited military responses by South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, but Beijing has been reluctant to go beyond counselling restraint to all parties. While declining to call Pyongyang to ac- count, it criticised Washington for stepped-up military exercises with allies in North East Asia. Beijing's unwillingness to condemn North Korea prevented a unified international response and undermines China's own security interests, as it invites further North Korean military and nuclear initiatives, risks increased militarisation of North East Asia and encourages an expanded U.S. military and political role in the region. Because it is seen as having failed to take greater responsibility to safeguard stability, China has also damaged its relationships in the region and in the West. The joint statement Presidents Hu and Obama issued on 19 January has helped, but China has ground to make up if it is to recover credibility as an impartial broker in the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Beijing, Asia, and Korea
16. Popular Nationalism in China and the Sino-Japanese Relationship: The Conflict in the East China Sea
- Author:
- Erik Beukel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Sino-Japanese relationship is a highly complex one, marked both by Japan's aggressive wars from the 1930s on and the present economic interdependence between the two countries. Focusing on the role of the territorial conflict in the East China Sea, this DIIS Report considers how China's leaders handle anti-Japanese nationalism by adopting a Janusian stance and pursuing both China's basic interest in close economic relations with Japan and also domestic stability. After a review of Chinese and Japanese sovereignty claims in the area and of the rise of nationalism since the early 1980s, four crises over the East China Sea are examined to identify the character of and changes in China's policy. For the last ten years China's leaders have attempted to conduct a more pragmatic policy towards Japan and evade the pernicious shadow of history. But this policy faces critical problems both in a growing popular nationalism in China and in the Japanese government's lack of willingness to restrain their own nationalists and the absence of legal possibilities for them to do so.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
17. Conflict and cooperation in local water governance – Inventory of local water-related events in Con Cuong District, Nghe An Province, Vietnam
- Author:
- Thomas Skielboe, Yen Thi Bich Nguyen, Phuong Thi Thanh Le, and Huong Thi Mai Pham
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Recent years have witnessed an increasing focus on water as a source of conflict. So far, much of the focus has been on the risk for transboundary water conflicts. Our current knowledge on local water conflicts is however more limited, and tends to be based on sporadic accounts of local water conflicts rather than on systematic empirical evidence. At the same time, the extent and nature of local water cooperation is often overlooked, just as we know little about the particular role of the poorest in water conflict and cooperation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Natural Resources, and Water
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia
18. Nepal: Peace and Justice
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Failure to address the systematic crimes committed during Nepal's ten-year civil war is threatening the peace process. There has been not a single prosecution in civilian courts for any abuses. The cultures of impunity that enabled the crimes in the first place have remained intact, further increasing public distrust and incentives to resort to violence. The immediate priorities should be prosecutions of the most serious crimes, investigation of disappearances and action to vet state and Maoist security force members.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Crime, Human Rights, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Nepal
19. Nepal's Political Rites of Passage
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nepal's transition from war to peace appears chaotic. Many commentators warn of coming anarchy; the establishment fears a collapse of the social order and the fragmentation of the nation. But such fears are misguided. Nepal is not in chaos; its transitions may be messy and confusing but they are not anarchic. There is an order within the political change, albeit one that can be mysterious and unappealing to outsiders; the resilience of Nepal's political processes acts against fundamental transformations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Fragile/Failed State, and Anarchy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Nepal
20. H1N1 Outbreak in Pakistan: Lessons Learnt
- Author:
- Sania Nishtar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Compared to many other countries in Asia, the outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 appeared to be of minor concern to Pakistan. This paper analyses, using qualitative research methods, the extent to which such a notion was justified and the response of Pakistan's health system to the outbreak, exploring the degree to which it is responsive to problems posed by an emerging infection. It looks at the health system measures introduced prior to the H1N1 outbreak (after the implementation of the International Health Regulations 2005) as these came into play during this episode, as well as specific measures introduced subsequent to the H1N1 outbreak.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Globalization, Health, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia