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1462. The Ties that Bind Bush and Bashir
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- This February, the Sudanese government launched a series of direct assaults on towns and villages in West Darfur that harkened back to the worst periods of violence since the current conflict in Sudan's western region began in 2003. Military aircraft, including Antonov transport planes used as bombers and helicopter gunships accompanied Sudanese Armed Forces and government-supported proxy militia in attacking the towns of Sirbu, Silea and Abu Siruj, among others. While these towns were located in a region controlled by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebel group, no evidence provided by the government of Sudan, international journalists or human rights groups indicates that rebel elements were present in these communities at the time of assault.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, Sudan, and Asia
1463. Taliban Propaganda: Winning the War of Words?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Taliban has created a sophisticated communications apparatus that projects an increasingly confident movement. Using the full range of media, it is successfully tapping into strains of Afghan nationalism and exploiting policy failures by the Kabul government and its international backers. The result is weakening public support for nation-building, even though few actively support the Taliban. The Karzai government and its allies must make greater efforts, through word and deed, to address sources of alienation exploited in Taliban propaganda, particularly by ending arbitrary detentions and curtailing civilian casualties from aerial bombing.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban
1464. Securing Pakistan's Tribal Belt
- Author:
- Daniel Markey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Today, few places on earth are as important to U.S. national security as the tribal belt along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. The region serves as a safe haven for a core group of nationally and internationally networked terrorists, a training and recruiting ground for Afghan Taliban, and, increasingly, a hotbed of indigenous militancy that threatens the stability of Pakistan's own state and society. Should another 9/11-type attack take place in the United States, it will likely have its origins in this region. As long as Pakistan's tribal areas are in turmoil, the mission of building a new, democratic, and stable Afghanistan cannot succeed.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban
1465. Approaching a Triumphal Span: How Far Is China Towards its Lewisian Turning Point?
- Author:
- Fang Cai
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- With the aid of an analytical framework of the Lewis model revised to reflect the experience of China, this paper examines the country's dualistic economic development and its unique characteristics. The paper outlines the major effects of China's growth as achieved during the course of economic reform and the opening-up of the country: the exploitation of the demographic dividend, the realization of comparative advantage, the improvement of total factor productivity, and participation in economic globalization. By predicting the long-term relationship between the labour force demand and supply, the paper reviews the approaching turning point in China's economic development and examines a host of challenges facing the country in sustaining growth.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1466. Assessing Vulnerability Before, During and After a Natural Disaster in Fragile Regions: Case Study of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Sri Lanka and Indonesia
- Author:
- Jörn Birkmann
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Current approaches of measuring vulnerability to natural hazards generally use a rather static perspective that focuses on a single point in time—often before a hazardous event occurs. In contrast, the paper argues that vulnerability assessment should also take into account the changing dynamics during and after a disaster. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the situation in Sri Lanka and Indonesia within the context of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The author presents concepts for measuring revealed vulnerabilities and methods of assessing the recovery process, and highlights the differing ways in which the tsunami affected the ongoing civil conflicts in both regions.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Disaster Relief, Environment, and Natural Disasters
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, and Sri Lanka
1467. Asset-Based Poverty in Rural Tajikistan: Who Climbs out and Who Falls in?
- Author:
- Oleksiy Ivaschenko and Cem Mete
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Tajikistan's rural sector has witnessed substantial development since the country began to emerge from civil conflict in 1999. Gross agricultural output increased 64 per cent from 1999 to 2003, and there were significant developments in the agricultural reform agenda. This paper uses the panel component of two surveys conducted in Tajikistan at one-year interval (2003 and 2004) to explore the major determinants of the transition out of/into poverty of rural households. Poverty status is measured in the asset space, thus indicating structural rather than transitory poverty movements. The empirical analysis reveals several interesting findings that are also important from a policy perspective: first, cotton farming seems to have no positive impact on poverty levels, nor on mobility out of poverty. Second, the rate of increase in the share of private farming at the district level had little impact on poverty levels and poverty mobility.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Tajikistan
1468. Beyond Industrialization: New Approaches to Development Strategy Based on the Service Sector
- Author:
- Peter Sheehan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Industrialization occupies a central place in the rich tapestry of development theory and practice. Although that place has varied over time, many have agreed with Nicholas Kaldor that the kind of economic growth that leads to high real income per capita can only occur through industrialization. This paper argues that it is becoming increasingly difficult for most developing countries to achieve rapid growth through industrialization, and especially through export oriented activities. But the key mechanisms seen as driving the industrial take-off in much of the literature (internal increasing returns, transfer of labour into higher value activities and pecuniary externalities) are alive and well, and are evident in services as well as in industry. Furthermore, China is actively trying to move from a strategy based on industrialization to one based much more on agriculture and services, as the costs of the current pattern of industrialization become prohibitive, and India has demonstrated that rapid growth based primarily on the services sector is possible. Thus more attention needs to be given to strategies based on the expansion of the agricultural and services sectors, and to the ways in which better services in rural areas and higher rural output can combine to achieve rapid growth and improved human welfare in poor countries.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Asia
1469. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences
- Author:
- Jeffrey Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1470. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles
- Author:
- Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia