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142. What Putin’s War in Ukraine Means for the Future of China-Russia Relations
- Author:
- Björn Alexander Düben
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Björn Alexander Düben analyses China’s reaction to, and motivation in implicitly supporting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as Putin’s strategic blunder becomes increasingly difficult to deal with. The author finds that, as long as Putin remains in power, long-term alignment since 2014 and a shared authoritarian world-view will cement closer ties between the PRC and Russian Federation; this at the cost of the latter devolving to a client-state dependent on China to keep its economy afloat, whilst the PRC’s cautious state banks further diminish Russian hopes of financial cooperation in order to avoid secondary sanctions from the West.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Economy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia
143. Decoding China’s “Common Prosperity” Drive
- Author:
- Xin Sun
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The term “common prosperity” has quickly risen to prominence in Chinese domestic politics amid an intense regulatory crackdown on China’s leading tech companies. However, this new policy agenda offers no clear road map or explicit policy instructions, giving way to various interpretations which while insightful do not depict the complete picture. In this strategic update, Xin Sun argues that the fundamental purpose of common prosperity is to support a new political order that keeps significant power in the hands of Xi and his closest allies and bolsters the supreme leader’s political survival in the coming decades.
- Topic:
- Regulation, Business, Domestic Policy, and Prosperity
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
144. Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market
- Author:
- Yifei Cai, Valérie Mignon, and Jamel Saadaoui
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, Conflict, Rivalry, and Energy Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
145. The Belt and Road Initiative as Ten Policy Commandments: Review of Xi’s Kazakhstan and Indonesia Launch Speeches
- Author:
- Lauren A. Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
- Abstract:
- In 2019 Foreign Policy described China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as “the most talked about and least defined buzzword of this decade”. Given that confusion and the importance of leader political speeches in China, especially those of current President Xi Jinping, it is surprising that the BRI literature has little in-depth analysed the two launch speeches of 2013. This article seeks to fill that gap with study of those speeches and focus on the five cooperationoriented areas announced in each. In comparative context those ten pillars appear not to be descended from New Era Chinese heaven but rather demonstrate substantive thematic overlap with the ten pillars of what was once relatively mainstream macroeconomic development policy, the Washington Consensus. Yet, in the case of the BRI there is a relative implicit implementation emphasis also. In forward context of contemporary global political economy tensions, the need to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the G7’s Build Back Better and the European Union’s Global Gateway ambitions also, this article may offer a timely fresh and comparative lens on the BRI.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
146. Europe’s Area of Maritime Interest in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Philip Shetler-Jones
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Participation in the monitoring of UN sanctions on North Korea is Europe’s most prominent operational contribution to Indo-Pacific security, but is also characterised by a fragmented, bilateral approach that contradicts the trajectory of recent European policies that strive for a more meaningful and coordinated investment in this area. A coordinated European presence in the region built around the sanctions monitoring task is within reach, and steps taken to achieve it would dramatically enhance the policy coherence and impact of European action on Northeast Asian security.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and North Korea
147. Japan and the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Eyal Ben-Ari
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Two weeks after the war began, Japan announced that its new National Security Strategy scheduled to be published this year would recategorize Russia from “partner” to “security challenge,” thus placing it alongside China and North Korea.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Europe, and Asia
148. Biden, Israel, and China: Making a Difficult Threesome Work
- Author:
- Steven R. David
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is wrong to expect Israel, a middle-level economy, to decouple from China when far wealthier countries (including the United States) show no signs of following suit. Israeli companies should not be subject to restrictions not placed on companies elsewhere, including the United States itself.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America
149. Ukraine War Distracts US from China, Legitimizes Nuclear Bombs
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is distracting the US from the Chinese threat and erodes the nuclear taboo.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, Rivalry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, North America, and United States of America
150. Partnerships for Policy Transfer: How Brazil and China Engage in Triangular Cooperation with the United Nations
- Author:
- Laura Trajber Waisbich and Sebastian Haug
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- This paper offers a comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese partnerships with the United Nations (UN) as a mechanism and channel for policy transfer. In international policy travel flows, China and Brazil currently hold privileged places as hubs from which development-related policies travel and through which they circulate. Both countries have invested in systematising their development experience and transferring development policies within their regions and beyond – often through triangular cooperation, i.e. South–South cooperation supported by third actors such as UN entities. So far, however, this variegated engagement has remained under the radar of scholarly attention. To address this gap, we examine 35 policy transfer partnerships – 17 for Brazil and 18 for China – forged with different parts of the UN system over the last two decades. In order to offer a first systematic account of partnership trajectories, we provide an overview of partnership types (namely projects, programmes and policy centres) and transfer dimensions (including the policies themselves, transfer agents and governance arrangements). Our comparative mapping presents an evolving landscape: while Brazil was first in institutionalising robust policy transfer partnerships with numerous UN entities and then slowed down, China started more cautiously but has significantly expanded its collaboration with the UN system since 2015. The partnerships analysed cover a substantial range of sectors, with a particular focus – for both Brazil and China – on agricultural policies. While Brazilian partnerships with the UN primarily engage with linkages between agriculture and social protection, however, China–UN partnerships focus more on productivity and market linkages. As the first comprehensive mapping and comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese policy transfer partnerships with the UN, this paper contributes to a better understanding of (triangular) cooperation schemes between international organisations and their member states, as well as debates about how policies deemed as successful travel around the globe.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America