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  • Author: Nermeen Shaikh
  • Publication Date: 10-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Ambassador Richard Holbrooke is vice chairman of Perseus LLC, a leading private equity firm. He is the former US ambassador to the UN and was the chief architect of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement (which ended the war in Bosnia). He is the chairman of the Asia Society, chairman of the American Academy in Berlin, and president and CEO of the Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS.
  • Topic: International Relations, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: America, Bosnia, Asia, Berlin
  • Author: Nermeen Shaikh
  • Publication Date: 09-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon is presently the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Republic of Korea. His election as new UN Secretary-General seems certain following the decision by all the other candidates to withdraw from the race. This interview with AsiaSource was conducted by Nermeen Shaikh on September 26th, while Foreign Minister Ban was in New York for the UN General Assemby session. The Foreign Minister also delivered a speech to the Asia Society the previous day, "The Quest for Peace and Prosperity in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond".
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, United Nations
  • Political Geography: New York, Asia, South Korea
  • Author: Nermeen Shaikh
  • Publication Date: 02-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Isher Ahluwalia is currently the Vice Chairperson of the Planning Board of the Government of Punjab, India and Member of the National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council, Government of India. Dr. Ahluwalia is also Chairperson of the Board of Governors of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), a research institute based in New Delhi. She had earlier served as ICRIER's Director and Chief Executive from 1997-2001. Dr. Ahluwalia was a Visiting Professor at the School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland--College Park in 2002 and 2003. She received her B.A. from Presidency College at Calcutta University, her M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and her Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, all in economics. This interview with AsiaSource was conducted on February 2nd, 2006, while Dr. Ahluwalia was in New York for the Asia Society panel discussion on Encyclopedic India: Ancient Cultures and New Opportunities.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization
  • Political Geography: New York, India, Asia, New Delhi, Punjab, Calcutta
  • Author: Shanthi Kalathil
  • Publication Date: 04-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: Having lapsed in importance following the end of the Cold War, public diplomacy has reemerged as a focal point for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners. Particularly following the attacks of September 11, 2001, American public diplomacy in the Middle East has rocketed to a place of prominence in the U.S. foreign policy toolkit. Yet even as resources and attention are trained on refining the U.S. public diplomacy strategy, there is little consensus on core problems, effective solutions, and what success might tangibly look like.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Middle East, Asia, Arabia
  • Author: Elena Pavlova
  • Publication Date: 11-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: The General Guide for the Struggle of AlJama'ah Al-Islamiyah (Pedoman Umum Perjuangan Al-Jama'ah Al-Islamiyah) – commonly known under its acronym PUPJI – is an essential document for understanding Southeast Asia's most deadly terror network. Issued by Jemaah Islamiyah's Central Executive Council (Qiyadah Markaziyah), it outlines the group's administrative structure and guiding religious principles, in addition to providing insights into its organizational development, membership recruitment, and operational strategy. From the time Jemaah Islamiyah was established on January 1, 1993 – as the result of an internal split within the Darul Islam (DI) movement – until the time it first engaged in terrorist activities – with the Medan church bombings on May 28, 2000 – the group was structured and managed in accordance with this handbook. To understand Jemaah Islamiyah, therefore, we must understand PUPJI.
  • Topic: International Relations, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Kwa Chong Guan
  • Publication Date: 06-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: “Indonesians have in the midst of all their political crises since 1945 explicitly looked back into their past for rationalizations of their present and more critically, redefine a “golden era” from which they can chart anew paths into their future. This paper examines the different challenges to the New Order version of Indonesian history and rewriting of that history for Indonesia's future. Specifically, the paper looks at the rewriting of Indonesian history (1) for the restructuring of the state and its Constitution for a more egalitarian and democratic future, (3) that reviews the swing of the pendulum in Jakarta's control of the provinces and justifies the devolution of power and decentralization of administration to the provinces, (2) which reviews the contribution of the Indonesian Armed Forces to the making of Indonesia's past and justification of its future role, (3) that acknowledges a greater role for Islam in Indonesia's past and its future.”
  • Topic: International Relations, National Security
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Ralf Emmers
  • Publication Date: 02-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: The Working Paper analyses whether an international regime against the illicit trafficking and abuse of drugs has been established in Southeast Asia. Its objective is to consider the circumstances that could have led to its formation as well as the conditions under which it may operate. The Working Paper claims that the existing cooperative structures for drug control in ASEAN present most of the characteristics of an international regime, though a relatively weak one. The cooperative process is based on a multilateral, long-term and normative dimension as well as on a convergence of views and interest on the need to tackle the illicit production, trafficking and abuse of drugs. The process has also been translated into an institutional structure. The Working Paper starts by reviewing how international regimes are discussed theoretically. It then discusses efforts made by ASEAN since 1972 to address the illicit trafficking and abuse of drugs problem. Adopting a neoliberal institutionalist perspective, the final section examines the dynamics of the anti-drugs regime by analysing the existence of common interests, its institutional form, its geographic scope, its complementary approach to domestic efforts on drug control as well as its influence on states' behaviour.
  • Topic: International Relations, Crime
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Mika Toyota
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the securitization process of unauthorised migration in Thailand, in particular how the cross-border flows of marginalised minorities, the so-called 'hill tribes' came to be seen as an 'existential threat' to Thai national identity by the state. The paper aims to present a case of societal security by highlighting the importance of national identity. It intends to explore the reasons for portraying cross-border mobility of border minorities as existential threats to the integrity of the Thai state. More specifically, it will investigate the motives of the securitising actor, the Thai state-and examine why the issue evoked security concerns in the wake of the 1997 economic crisis and the way 'emergency measures' were introduced. This paper will illustrate the importance of ethnocized discourses on national identity by broadening the traditional security studies' framework on states and political-military competition at the borderlands.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Migration
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: James Laki
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: Transnational crime involving all forms of domestic crime that traverse the international boundary with another one or more states have become a concern amongst all peoples of the Asia Pacific region. Although there are many forms of transnational crime this paper focuses on Human and Drug Smuggling, as these have become existential threats affecting many people throughout the region.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Crime
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Veron Mei-Ying Hung
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Shanghai, Asia
  • Author: Jim Walsh
  • Publication Date: 08-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: This report describes meetings and events that took place in the DPRK (Pyongyang), the PRC (Beijing), and the ROK (Seoul) from June 25th through July 4th, 2005. The report focuses on my meetings in the DPRK, including discussions with. Kim Gae Gwan, Vice Foreign Minister (5.5 hrs) Kim Myung Gil, Deputy Dir. General of the American Depart. (3.3 hrs) Kim Yong-dae, Vice Chair of Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly (1 hr.) Gen. Ri Chan Bok, Korean People's Army, Rep. to the Panmunjum (1 hr.) Ri Hak Gwon, Vice Chair, Korea Comm. for the Promotion of Intl. Trade (1 hr.) My Foreign Ministry guides were Mr. Hyon and Mr. Hwang.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Politics
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Publication Date: 09-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Although the dangers are evident, the international community continues to support General Pervez Musharraf because of his perceived cooperation in the war on terror, ignoring unconstitutional constraints on the civilian opposition. However, the military's refusal to cede real power to civilians and its marginalisation of moderate parties has boosted religious extremists. Instability is worsening, and sectarian conflict threatens to spin out of control. Lacking robust international support for a democratic transition, mainstream parties struggle to survive, subjected to coercion and violence. They can be the most effective safeguard against the religious lobby's manifestly anti-Western agenda, but only if allowed to function freely in a democratic environment. They need outside help but must also get more serious about reforming themselves.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Asia
  • Publication Date: 09-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: After drifting toward crisis for much of 2004, the outlook for stability across the Taiwan Strait has improved. Constraints on Taiwan pursuing pro-independence initiatives that risk conflict with China will likely remain strong through to the end of President Chen Shui-bian's term of office in 2008. These include a reinvigorated political opposition and Chinese initiatives that have won some poplar support in Taiwan and weakened the drive for independence. Most importantly, the U.S. appears determined to deter not only a Chinese attack but also provocative Taiwan independence moves.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Publication Date: 07-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Elections for Afghanistan's National Assembly and Provincial Councils are a critical opportunity to achieve a sustainable peace in a country that is still emerging from a quarter century of conflict, created and exacerbated by ethnic, sectarian, regional and linguistic divisions. A representative and functional National Assembly could prove a crucial step in stabilising Afghanistan by allowing diversity of voices in decision-making. Provincial Councils could also help extend the authority of central government by introducing legally approved layers of devolution.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Asia
  • Author: Dirk Nabers
  • Publication Date: 09-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: In order to provide a lens to the issue of international security cooperation after 11 September 2001, this paper will examine the question of how collective action in international relations becomes possible. The author maintains that it is possible to understand, if not explain, a fair amount of inter-state collective action by analyzing the culture of the international system. Using discourse analysis as a tool, the analysis addresses the underlying ideas, norms and identities that constitute the relationship between the United States and Japan on the one hand and Germany and the United States on the other hand as it evolved since September 2001. As a result, the paper argues that even if the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington have led to strong pressure on states like the United States, Germany and Japan to form a collective identity, rivalling identities have yet not given way.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, New York, Washington, Asia, Germany
  • Author: Malcolm Cook, Craig Meer
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: Taiwan is in the middle of a deep social transformation that is redefining the way its people identify themselves, how it sees its place in the world and, most urgently, its relationship with China. Taiwan's metamorphosis, and China's reaction to it, are making it more difficult to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. Washington and its regional allies, including Australia, need to understand these changes better and to incorporate responses to them into their policies.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization
  • Political Geography: China, Washington, Taiwan, Asia, Australia
  • Author: Ivan Cook
  • Publication Date: 03-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: Australians feel positive and self-confident about Australia's place in the world, but we also have a realistic sense of our limitations and vulnerabilities. A vast majority believe Australia is 'a good international citizen' (82%), 'important in Asia' (82%), and 'well-placed to succeed in a competitive world' (79%), while few agree with the notion that we are 'unimportant in global politics' (37%). But three quarters of respondents also think we are 'vulnerable to external threats' (76%), and while the population is evenly split on whether we are 'independent minded', 65% think we are 'a follower not a leader'.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Asia, Australia, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Marcus Noland
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: South Korea's experience is unparalleled in its combination of sustained prosperity, capital controls, and financial crisis. Over several decades South Korea experienced rapid sustained growth in the presence of capital controls. These controls and the delinking of domestic and international financial markets were an essential component of the country's state-led development strategy. As the country developed, opportunities for easy technological catch-up eroded, requiring more sophisticated corporate and financial sector decision making. But decades of financial repression had bequeathed a bureaucratized financial system and a formidable constellation of incumbent stakeholders opposed to transition to a more market-oriented development model. Liberalization undertaken in the 1990s was less a product of textbook economic analysis than of parochial politicking. The capital account liberalization program affected the timing, magnitude, and particulars of the 1997-98 crisis. Despite considerable reforms undertaken since the crisis, concerns remain about both South Korea's lending culture and its authorities' capacity to successfully regulate the more complex financial system. The main lesson of the South Korean case appears to be that while the state-led model may deliver impressive initial gains, transitioning out of this approach presents an exceedingly complex political-economy challenge.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: Asia, South Korea
  • Author: Martin Wolf
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Gautam Adhikari
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: From October 2003 to October 2004, the American Enterprise Institute hosted a series of roundtable discussions and public events to examine expanding and deepening relations between the United States and India. This document is a summary of issues emerging from these discussions, and includes a select list of observations made at the roundtable sessions. Participants included scholars, journalists, diplomats, officials, foreign policy analysts, economists, business executives, entrepreneurs, and visiting Indian parliamentarians.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, America, India, Asia
  • Author: Hyun Park
  • Publication Date: 01-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: This paper concerns the paradox of democratization in South Korea, whose progression has been entwined with neoliberal capitalism beginning in the 1990s. There have been critical moments of democratization since the military rulers gave in to popular pressure for democratization. These moments range from the recommencement of the popular electoral system in the Presidential election in 1987 to the transfer of the state power to civilian leaders, and the participation of former dissidents in the parliament and the administration. A particular form of democratization addressed in this paper is not electoral state politics but the broad-reaching initiatives to transform the relationship between the state and society. Specifically, I examine the initiative to rewrite colonial and cold-war history. This particular initiative is part of an effort to correct a longstanding tendency of previous military regimes that suppressed the resolution of colonial legacies and framed Korean national history within an ideological confrontation of capitalist South Korea and communist North Korea.
  • Topic: International Relations, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, South Korea, North Korea
  • Author: Ronen Sen
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for the Advanced Study of India
  • Abstract: I am Francine Frankel, director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India. It is a very special pleasure to extend a warm welcome to all of you for this special occasion. We are honored to welcome Ambassador of India Ronen Sen for a very unusual event. This is the opportunity to participate in a dialogue with India's most distinguished diplomat and active participant in ongoing discussions of the potential for changing the direction of India-US relations and potentially the future great power balance in Asia.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: United States, India, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Nermeen Shaikh
  • Publication Date: 10-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Asma Jahangir is a leading human rights advocate in Pakistan. A prominent lawyer, she has worked both in Pakistan and abroad to prevent the exploitation of religious minorities, women, and children. She is currently UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Religion or Belief of the Commission on Human Rights. She assumed this position after being UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, arbitrary and summary executions. This interview with AsiaSource was conducted while Ms Jahangir was in New York for the Citigroup Series on Asian Women Leaders presented at the Asia Society
  • Topic: International Relations, Gender Issues, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Asia
  • Author: Deborah Elms
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: This article considers bargaining strategies used by government negotiators in the context of bilateral trade disputes. I argue that trade officials reach the most durable agreements by using an integrative, or value creating, strategy and avoiding the use of threats. By contrast, a highly distributive, value claiming strategy coupled with loud public threats is unlikely to result in a durable agreement and frequently leads to deadlocked negotiations. The irony, however, is that American officials use the latter approach more frequently in bilateral trade disputes, rather than the former. These strategies are usually chosen unconsciously in response to perceptions of losses that drive negotiators to select risky approaches to resolve disputes
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Manjeet Singh Pardesi
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper seeks to answer if a rising India will repeat the pattern of all rising great powers since the Napoleonic times by attempting regional hegemony. This research deduces India's grand strategy of regional hegemony from historical and conceptual perspectives. The underlying assumption is that even though India has never consciously and deliberately pursues a grand strategy, its historical experience and geo-strategic environment have substantially conditioned its security behaviour and desired goals. To this extent, this research develops a theoretical framework to analyse grand strategy. This framework is then applied to five pan-Indian powers–the Mauryas, the Guptas, the Mughals, British India and the Republic of India–to understand their security behavior.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: India, Asia
  • Author: Takuji Kinkyo
  • Publication Date: 08-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
  • Abstract: The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Takuji Kinkyo
  • Publication Date: 08-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
  • Abstract: The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Asia, Korea
  • Author: Bertel Heurlin
  • Publication Date: 12-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The basic arguments of this paper are, first, that the current US-missile defense, being operative from fall 2004, is based upon the former experiences with missile defense, second, that missile defense closely associated with weapons of mass destruction has gained the highest priority in American national security policy due to the 9.11 attacks, and third, that the superior argument for establishing an American missile defense is to maintain global, long term political-strategic superiority.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Richard B. Freeman
  • Publication Date: 11-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In 1985, the global economic world (N. America, S. America, Western Europe, Japan, Asian Tigers, Africa) consisted of 2.5 billion people. In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India's turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, global economy encompassed 6 billion people. Had China, India, and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, global economy would have had 3.3 billion.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Africa, Japan, China, America, India, Asia, Western Europe
  • Author: Barnett Rubin
  • Publication Date: 10-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center on International Cooperation
  • Abstract: President George W. Bush declared recently that “the people of Afghanistan are now free.” While the president boasts, Afghanistan's opium industry, which fosters terrorism, violence, debt bondage, and organized crime, has expanded to the point that it could undermine the entire U.S. and international effort. As President Bush's own special envoy and ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, recently admitted, ''[r]ather than getting better, it's gotten worse. There is a potential for drugs overwhelming the institutions – a sort of a narco-state."
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Asia
  • Author: Kenneth Schultz
  • Publication Date: 04-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: Theoretical arguments for why “it takes a Nixon to go to China” emphasize either the superior credibility that hawks have in advocating peace or the superior political benefits they enjoy in doing so. This paper looks for evidence of these effects in the canonical case: that of U.S. rapprochement with China in the early 1970s. I use counterfactual simulations on data from the 1968 National Election Study to explore the political effects of a proposal to open relations with China, focusing on whether and how those effects would depend on who made the proposal: Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey. I find evidence of both the credibility and electoral security effects hypothesized in the theoretical literature. In particular, there is a very dramatic asymmetry in the political costs and benefits of proposing peace: while such a proposal would have been electorally costly for Humphrey, it could have been an electoral boon for Nixon.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia, North America
  • Publication Date: 09-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: There were 19 major armed conflicts in 18 locations in 2003. The number of major armed conflicts and the number of conflict locations were slightly lower in 2003 than in 2002, when there were 20 major armed conflicts in 19 locations. Four of the 19 conflicts in 2003 were in Africa and eight in Asia. In the 14-year post-cold war period, there were 59 different major armed conflicts in 48 different locations. The number of major armed conflicts in 2003 was the lowest for the entire period except for 1997, when there were 18 major armed conflicts. Two interstate conflicts were active in 2003: the conflict between Iraq and the multinational coalition; and the conflict between India and Pakistan. The majority of the major armed conflicts today are intra- state. The persistence of intra-state wars, and their resistance to quick solutions, was reflected in 2003 by the continuation of the Colombian and Israeli–Palestinian conflicts. The potential for sudden and rapid escalation of intensity was evident in conflicts such as Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia, Liberia and Sudan (Darfur). The current international focus on the threat of terrorism is affecting the strategies, intensity and course of intra-state conflicts such as those in Indonesia and the Philippines. Outside actors cannot enforce a quick peace, as demonstrated in Afghanistan, Côte d'Ivoire, Iraq and Sri Lanka. The year demonstrated that intra-state conflicts can be brought to an end only through sustained and comprehensive external engagement. As illustrated by the peace agreements in 2003 in Liberia and Sudan, external assistance, mediation and support are vital to help bring warring parties to a negotiated end to conflict.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Liberia, Burundi
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Apparently irreconcilable positions on the 'one China' principle have emerged between China and Taiwan over the last decade, with Taiwan for some time now asserting not only that it is a separate political entity but an independent sovereign country. China for its part remains absolutely unwilling to compromise its position that Taiwan and the mainland are part of one country, and has not renounced the use of force as a means of making that principle a reality. The risk of war between them must, accordingly, continue to be taken seriously.
  • Topic: International Relations, Peace Studies, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: China's underlying position on its cross-Strait relations, however strong its current commitment to peaceful diplomacy, is that Taiwan must make sustained, visible progress toward a peaceful settlement or risk a resort to armed hostilities. It has also indicated that any move by Taiwan that might demonstrate its substantive rejection of this new demand could well be the last straw.
  • Topic: International Relations, Sovereignty, War
  • Political Geography: China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Shogo Suzuki
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: In the not too distant past Timothy Dunne asserted that '[International] society is what states have made of it'. Since then much has been written about how the English School offers a valuable interpretivist approach, how it has spread across the world, how it can be improved, and what it has to say about non-European societies and 'world society'. This paper aims to contribute to all three facets of the debate through a case study of how the Japanese elite understood international society during the bakumatsu (late-Tokugawa)/early-Meiji periods (1853-95). In doing so, it examines the emergence of Japanese imperialism from the perspective of international society as perceived by English School scholars.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Stuart Harris
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: In 1999, Gerry Segal, then Director of Research at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, wrote an article in Foreign Affairs entitled 'Does China matter?'. His article ranged across economic, political and strategic issues but his overall conclusion was that China's importance had been greatly exaggerated. As far as economic questions were concerned, Segal saw China as a small market 'that matters little to the world, especially outside Asia'.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Rafiq Dossani, Martin Kenney
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: Will the next great wave of globalization come in services? Increasingly, components of back-office services, such as payroll and order fulfillment, and some front-office services, such as customer care, are being relocated from the United States and other developed countries to English-speaking, developing nations—especially India, but also other nations, such as the Philippines. Though moving service activities offshore is not entirely new, the pace has quickened of late. The acceleration of this business process offshoring (BPO) is intertwined, though not synonymous, with another phenomenon, namely an increasing willingness by firms to outsource what formerly were considered core activities. It is significant that a substantial number of service activities might move offshore, because it was once thought that service jobs were the future growth area for developed country economies. Manufacturing, by contrast, would relocate to lower labor cost regions offshore. Notably, the services commonly known as “business processes” (BPs) are among the fastest growing job categories in the United States (Goodman and Steadman 2002). Should these jobs begin to move offshore, a new tendency may be under way in the global economy that will be as or more important than the relocation of manufacturing offshore, and might necessitate a rethinking of government policies across a wide spectrum.
  • Topic: International Relations, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, India, Asia, Philippines
  • Author: Jon Wongswan
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Abstract: Using the conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), this paper tests for the existence and pattern of contagion and capital market integration in global equity markets. Contagion is defined as significant excess conditional correlation among different countries' asset returns above what could be explained by economic fundamentals (systematic risks). Capital market integration is defined as the situation in which only systematic risks are priced. The paper uses a panel of sixteen countries, divided into three blocs: Asia, Latin America, and Germany-U.K.-U.S., for the period from 1990 through 1999. The results show evidence of contagion and capital market integration. In addition, contagion is found to be a regional phenomenon.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Asia, Germany, Latin America
  • Author: Chris Smith
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Asia, Sri Lanka
  • Publication Date: 06-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults. Seven countries already have adult prevalence rates above 20 per cent of the population.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Mitchell B. Reiss
  • Publication Date: 02-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Abstract: The National Intelligence Council (NIC) held a conference on 23 February 2001 in cooperation with the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress on "North Korea's Engagement—Perspectives, Outlook and Implications." The conference featured discussion of seven commissioned papers that are published in this report. Sixty government and nongovernment specialists participated in the conference. Following is a brief summary of the views of the specialists.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Neil E. Silver
  • Publication Date: 04-2000
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Yeo Lay Hwee
  • Publication Date: 10-2000
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Third ASEM Summit (ASEM 3) was held in Seoul on 20-21 October 2000. Openly, those who participated in the meeting, and several of the Asian newspapers, particularly the Korean papers, were happy to hail the meeting as a "success". What does it mean? With the presence of all heavy-weight European and Asian leaders - Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, Zhu Rongji, Yoshiro Mori, Abdurrahman Wahid, and the adoption of three Documents - The Chairman's Statement; Seoul Declaration for Peace on the Korean Peninsula; and the Asia-Europe Cooperation Framework 2000, it is possibly the best outcome one could hope for under the cloud of rumours of forum-fatigue, acrimonious debates about human rights, increasing divergences and complaints on the slow progress of some key initiatives such as the Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP) during the preparatory process. That the meeting was held smoothly under tight security without any major disruptions from anti-globalisation protestors was another triumph for the Korean government, especially in the wake of a series of street protests and demonstrations that targeted and disrupted several international meetings since the Seattle fiasco in November last year.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia
  • Author: Pradeep Raje
  • Publication Date: 12-2000
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for the Advanced Study of India
  • Abstract: A decade into financial sector liberalization, there has been little concerted effort at restructuring the Indian public sector banks (PSBs). Though there has been significant progress in banking regulatory reform in the decade, the lack of restructuring has slowed down the assimilation of the incentive structures inherent in the new regulations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Debt, Economics
  • Political Geography: India, Asia
  • Author: Christopher Layne
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Albania
  • Author: Marshall Bouton, Frank Wisner, Farida Burtis, Amit Sarkar, Shri Jaswant Singh, Corinne Shane, Trudy Rubin, Gligor Tashkovich, Robert Kleiman, Paul Heer
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: I'd like to welcome you to this luncheon with the Honorable Jaswant Singh, Minister for External Affairs for the Government of India. Mr. Minister, I believe this is your third visit to the Asia Society. We and the Council on Foreign Relations are deeply honored, again, to provide a forum for exchange between the Government of India and interested Americans. As you can see from the attendance here today, there is much interest in hearing from you.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Politics
  • Political Geography: America, South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Lyndelle Fairlie
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: A Northern Dimension for the European Union is now taking shape. Originally a Finnish initiative, it tries to take a regional view of the Baltic area which includes member states, EU applicants such as Poland and the Baltic states and Russia. The Northern Dimension specifically mentions the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad. There is very little time left to develop an Action Plan which the EU Council can adopt at the December Helsinki summit. This essay addresses the question of whether or not the EU will use Northern Dimension to solve its Kaliningrad dilemma.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: George Bunn
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
  • Topic: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Korea
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Abstract: This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Wu Xinbo
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, Soviet Union