Number of results to display per page
Search Results
202. The Distribution of Household Wealth in India
- Author:
- D. Jayaraj and S. Subramanian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews the principal source of India's wealth distribution statistics, which is constituted by the five decennial Reserve Bank of India National Sample Survey Organization Surveys on Debt and Investment of 1961-62, 1971-72, 1981-82, 1991-92, and 2002-03. The data available are described, critically appraised, and analyzed to present some salient findings in terms of the levels of debt, the levels of asset-holdings across the states of the Indian Union and over time, wealth composition, and aspects of vertical and horizontal inequality in the distribution of wealth. The centrality of land and real estate in the wealth status of India is underlined, and some broad aspects of redistributive anti-poverty policy are spelt out.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
203. Credit Constraints as a Barrier to Technology Adoption by the Poor: Lessons from South-Indian Small-Scale Fishery
- Author:
- Xavier Giné and Stefan Klonner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We study the diffusion of a capital intensive technology among a fishing community in south India and analyze the dynamics of income inequality during this process. We find that lack of asset wealth is an important predictor of delayed technology adoption. During the diffusion process, inequality follows Kuznets' well-known inverted U-shaped curve. The empirical results imply that redistributive policies favouring the poor result in accelerated economic growth and a shorter duration of sharpened inequality.
- Topic:
- Development, Poverty, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
204. Financial Development and Income Inequality in Rural China 1991-2000
- Author:
- Zhicheng Liang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Financial development can exert a significant influence on the distribution of income. In this paper, using Chinese provincial data over the period of 1991-2000 and applying the generalized method of moment (GMM) techniques, we investigate the relationship between finance and inequality in rural China by testing alternative existing theories concerning the finance-inequality nexus. A negative and linear relationship between finance and inequality is found in our estimations. The empirical results show that financial development significantly reduces income inequality in post-reform rural China.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
205. Fiscal Decentralization and Political Centralization in China: Implications for Growth and Inequality
- Author:
- Xiaobo Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- China's current fiscal system is largely decentralized while its governance structure is rather centralized with strong top-down mandates and a homogenous governance structure. Due to large differences in initial economic structures and revenue bases, the implicit tax rate and fiscal burdens to support the functioning of local government vary significantly across jurisdictions. Regions initially endowed with a broader nonfarm tax base do not need to rely heavily on preexisting or new firms to finance public goods provision, thereby creating a healthy investment environment for the nonfarm sector to grow. In contrast, regions with agriculture as the major economic activity have little resources left for public investment after paying the expenses of bureaucracy. Consequently, differences in economic structures and fiscal burdens may translate into a widening regional gap.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
206. The Impacts of Growth and Inequality on Rural Poverty in China
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in China from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, employing a version of Shapley decomposition tailored to unit-record household survey data. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes— income growth and shifts in income distribution. Different datasets, poverty lines, poverty measures, and equivalence scales are used to examine the robustness of the results. Potential biases arising from ignoring differential regional prices and inflation are also investigated. Notwithstanding some ambiguities in the results, it is consistently found that rural poverty increased in the second half of the 1990s and adverse distributional changes are the main cause.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
207. The Inequality-Growth Nexus in the Short and Long Runs: Empirical Evidence from China
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that the conventional approach of data averaging is problematic for exploring the growth—inequality nexus. It introduces the polynomial inverse lag (PIL) framework so that the impacts of inequality on investment, education, and ultimately on growth can be measured at precisely defined time lags. Combining PIL with simultaneous systems of equations, we analyze the growth—inequality relationship in postreform China, finding that this relationship is nonlinear and is negative irrespective of time horizons.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Education
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
208. Financial Development, Growth, and Regional Disparity in Post-Reform China
- Author:
- Zhicheng Liang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Deepening financial development and rapid economic growth in China have been accompanied by widening income disparity between the coastal and inland regions. In this paper, by employing panel dataset for 29 Chinese provinces over the period of 1990-2001 and applying the generalized method of moment (GMM) techniques, we examine the impacts of financial development on China's growth performance. Our empirical results show that financial development significantly promotes economic growth in coastal regions but not in the inland regions; the weak finance-growth nexus in inland provinces may aggravate China's regional disparities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
209. Spatial Convergence in China: 1952-99
- Author:
- Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Dong Guo, and Patricio Aroca
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence process in China by taking into account the spatial interaction between factors. The paper shows that there has been a dramatic increase in the spatial dependence of China's per capita GDP in the last 20 years. The consequence of space plays an important role, which is reflected in the influence of a neighbour's condition on the mobility of a province's income distribution from one category to another. The dynamics of the process showed evidence that China's distribution has gone from one of convergence to stratification, and from stratification to polarization.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
210. Financial Sector Development and Growth: The Chinese Experience
- Author:
- Mingming Zhou and Iftekhar Hasan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper documents the financial and institutional developments of China during the past two decades, when China was successfully transformed from a rigid centralplanning economy to a dynamic market economy following its unique path. We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China by employing a panel sample covering 31 Chinese provinces during the important transition period 1986-2002. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, institutions, and instruments have been robustly associated with economic growth in China.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
211. Primary Education in India: Prospects of Meeting the MDG Target
- Author:
- Bernarda Zamora and Sonia Bhalotra
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper uses two large repeated cross-sections, one for the early 1990s, and one for the late 1990s, to describe growth in school enrolment and completion rates for boys and girls in India, and to explore the extent to which enrolment and completion rates have grown over time. It decomposes this growth into a component due to changes in the characteristics that determine schooling, and another associated with changes in the responsiveness of schooling to given characteristics. Our results caution against the common practice of using current data to make future projections on the assumption that the model parameters are stable. The analysis nevertheless performs illustrative simulations relevant to the question of whether India will be able to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of realising universal primary education by the year 2015. The simulations suggest that India will achieve universal attendance, but that primary school completion rates will not exhibit much progress.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Education
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
212. Reconstruction from Breakdown in Northeastern India: Building State Capability
- Author:
- M. Sajjad Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The northeast region of India remains fraught with severe violence, poor growth and acute frustration among its youth. Success of policies to resolve the region's crisis has proved less than encouraging. What could be the way out of the violence–poor growth trap? This paper argues that a key determinant of the instability in the region is the absence of the effective role of the state: to provide security and opportunities for social and economic wellbeing equitably to all sections of society; and to uphold the rule of law. For reconstruction to work the state must act to provide key political goods to all its citizens, and restore its legitimate authority by implementing policies and enforcing laws cleanly and transparently. Political leaders can contribute to this endeavour by organizing politics inclusively.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
213. Rethinking Import-substituting Industrialization: Development Strategies and Institutions in Taiwan and China
- Author:
- Tianbiao Zhu
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Conventional explanations of Taiwan and China's economic success point to the shift from an import-substituting industrialization (ISI) strategy to an export-oriented industrialization (EOI) strategy. This paper argues that the development strategies in Taiwan and China have always been a combination of ISI and EOI strategies during their entire miracle-creating period; far from the shift from ISI to EOI strategies, export promotion was used in both cases to sustain ISI, which has always been the central focus of development. Behind this strategy there is a set of institutions in both Taiwan and China, which has played a key role in supporting ISI, in particular, the government, the bank sector, public enterprises, and their relationship.
- Topic:
- Development and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia
214. Food Security in Vietnam during the 1990s: The Empirical Evidence
- Author:
- Vasco Molini
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Analysing the performance of ten developing countries, Hoddinot and Yohannes (2002) find a strong association between two measures of food security (calorie intake and mostly dietary diversity) and the increase in expenditures per capita. Using various indicators of food security, we describe the changes in food balances in Vietnam and find evidence of a substitution of poor micronutrients items (rice and cereals) with rich ones like fruit, vegetables fish and meat. Poor households, while increasing the amount of calories consumed, still lack vitamins, iron, calcium, etc. A preliminary assessment of the food security variation showed that improvements were, as expected, more concentrated among the richer Vietnamese households than the poor ones, although there was some improvement among poorer strata as well. We also focus on the calorie/expenditure elasticity and compare results for the years 1993 and 1998. Our findings confirm that this link is strong, and show that calorie income elasticity changed in the expected direction. We conclude that in general food security improved in Vietnam during 1990s although considerable differences still remain among expenditure deciles and among regions due to the accentuated spatial difference.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Vietnam
215. Development of Financial Intermediation and the Dynamics of Rural-Urban Inequality: China, 1978-98
- Author:
- Qi Zhang, Mingxing Liu, and Yiu Por Chen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Using China as a test case, this paper empirically investigates how the development of financial intermediation affects rural-urban income disparity (RUID). Using 20-year province level panel data, we find that the level of financial development is positively correlated with RUID. Examining two subperiods, 1978-88 and 1989-98, we test several competing hypotheses that may affect RUID. We find that the increase of RUID may be explained by fiscal policy during the first period and financial intermediates during the second period. In addition, we show that the direction of the Kuznets effect on RUID is sensitive to changes in government development policies. The rural development policies during the first period may have enhanced the rural development and reduced RUID. However, the financial intermediary policy during the second period focused on urban development and increased both urban growth and intra-urban inequalities, thus leading to an increase in RUID. Finally, we show that RUID is insensitive to the provincial industrial structure (the share of primary industry in GDP). These results are consistent with the traditional urban-bias hypothesis and are robust to the inclusion of controls for endogeneity issues. This study adds to the economic inequality literature by clarifying the effects of government policies on the underlying dynamics on convergent and divergent effects on rural-urban inequality.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
216. How Should We Measure Global Poverty in a Changing World?
- Author:
- Kuan Xu and Lars Osberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Before effective anti-poverty policy can be designed and implemented, the extent, trend and distribution of poverty must be identified. In this sense, poverty measurement is a crucial intermediate step in public policymaking and development planning. This paper asks whether the estimated proportion of the world's population with income below US$1 (adjusted according to purchasing power parity) per day is a good measure of trends in global poverty. We argue that the answer depends on two important issues in the measurement of poverty—the definition of the poverty line, and how best to summarize the level of poverty In this paper, we survey the literature on poverty measurement, demonstrate the importance of considering poverty incidence, depth and inequality jointly, present a simple but powerful graphical representation of the Sen and SST indices of poverty intensity (the poverty box) which is the FGT index of order 1 and extend our empirical work to China using the commonly accepted international poverty line definition of one half median equivalent income.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
217. Poverty Accounting by Factor Components: With an Empirical Illustration Using Chinese Data
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to develop two poverty decomposition frameworks and to illustrate their applicability. A given level of poverty is broadly decomposed into an overall inequality component and an overall endowment component in terms of income or consumption determinants or input factors. These components are further decomposed into finer components associated with individual inputs. Also, a change in poverty is decomposed into components attributable to the growth and redistributions of factor inputs. An empirical illustration using Chinese data highlights the importance of factor redistributions in determining poverty levels and poverty changes in rural China.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
218. Asia's Labour-Driven Economic Development, Flying-Geese Style: An Unprecedented Opportunity for the Poor to Rise?
- Author:
- Terutomo Ozawa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The notion of 'shared growth' was introduced by the World Bank in recognition of East Asia's rapid growth accompanied by poverty reduction. It emphasizes the criticality of pro-poor policies and institutional setups in the fast-developing East Asian economies. The efforts of these individual countries are, however, a necessary but not sufficient condition (explanation). There is a more essential, underlying region-wide mechanism that simultaneously promotes regionalized growth and specifically favours Asia's working mass of unskilled labour. Such an efficacious mechanism is posited in the 'flying-geese paradigm of comparative advantage recycling in labour-intensive goods'. The paper argues that a number of favourable factors have fortuitously coalesced to engender a considerably favourable condition for Asia's rapid catch-up growth in which unskilled labour (the poor) can participate as their countries' most vital input in labour-driven development.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Asia
219. Pro-Poor Growth: The Asian Experience
- Author:
- Hyun H. Son and Nanak Kakwani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper looks into the interrelation between economic growth, inequality, and poverty. Using the notion of pro-poor growth, this study examines to what extent the poor benefit from economic growth. First, various approaches to defining and measuring pro-poor growth are scrutinized using a variety of criteria. It is argued that the satisfaction of a monotonicity axiom is a key criterion for measuring pro-poor growth. The monotonicity axiom sets out a condition that the proportional reduction in poverty is monotonically an increasing function of the pro-poor growth measure. This paper proposes a pro-poor growth measure that satisfies the monotonicity criterion. This measure is called the 'poverty equivalent growth rate', which takes into account both the magnitude of growth and how the benefits of the growth are distributed to the poor and the non-poor. As the new measure satisfies the criterion of monotonicity, it is indicative that to achieve a rapid poverty reduction, the poverty equivalent growth rate ought to be maximized rather than the actual growth rate. The methodology developed in the paper is then applied to Asian countries, including the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Vietnam, Korea, and Thailand
220. Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Institutions: The Case of China
- Author:
- Mingxing Liu, Pengfei Zhang, Shiyuan Pan, and Justin Yifu Lin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the politically determined development objectives and the intrinsic logic of government intervention policies in east developed countries. It is argued that the distorted institutional structure in China and in many least developed countries, after the Second World War, can be largely explained by government adoption of inappropriate development strategies. Motivated by nation building, most least-developed countries, including the socialist countries, adopted a comparative advantage defying strategy to accelerate the growth of capital-intensive, advanced sectors in their countries. In the paper we also statistically measure the evolution of government development strategies and the economic institutions in China from 1950s to 1980s to show the co-existence and coevolution of government adoption of comparative advantage defying strategy and the trinity system.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
221. Trade Liberalization, Environment and Poverty: A Developing Country Perspective
- Author:
- M.S. Quresh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper revisits the pollution haven hypothesis in the context of Pakistan by offering a systematic analysis of its trade and production patterns. Using bilateral trade statistics from 1975-2003, we test the hypotheses that Pakistan's net exports of pollutionintensive products have increased to the OECD countries. We also investigate if the stringency of environmental governance in the importing countries plays a role in determining Pakistan's exports of pollution-intensive products. The results reveal that there has been a change in the composition of output and exports towards pollutionintensive manufacturing that parallels the opening of the economy. Overall, the findings appear to be in favour of the pollution haven hypothesis and call for effective environmental policy response for poverty alleviation and sustainable development.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
222. Economic Development Strategy, Openness and Rural Poverty: A Framework and China's Experiences
- Author:
- Justin Yifu Lin and Peilin Liu
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that both openness and poverty in a country are endogenously determined by the country's long-term economic development strategy. Development strategies can be broadly divided into two mutually exclusive groups: (i) the comparative advantage-defying (CAD) strategy, which attempts to encourage firms to deviate from the economy's existing comparative advantages in their entry into an industry or choice of technology; and (ii) the comparative advantage-following (CAF) strategy, which attempts to facilitate the firms' entry into an industry or choice of technology according to the economy's existing comparative advantages.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
223. Globalization, Growth and Poverty in India
- Author:
- Arup Mirtra and N.R. Bhanumurthy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper an attempt is made to assess the impact of economic reforms on the incidence of poverty by decomposing the change in poverty ratio between two time points into growth/mean effect, inequality effect and the population shift effect. Based on the National Sample Survey data an analysis has been carried out for two time periods: (i) 1983 to 1993-94 and (ii) 1993-94 to 1999-2000, broadly representing the pre-reform and reform-period respectively, for the rural and urban areas of the fifteen major states, and also for the all-India level. The growth/mean effect, which determines the extent of fall (rise) in poverty incidence due to rise (fall) in mean per capita consumption expenditure, dominates in both the periods over the inequality effect, that estimates the rise (fall) in poverty due to rise (fall) in inequality. It also dominates over the population shift effect, which assesses the net impact on all-areas combined poverty, of a decline (rise) in rural (urban) poverty caused possibly by rural-urban migration. The growth effect, which is beneficial for poverty reduction, seems to have gone up in the reform period. The adverse inequality effect also fell in magnitude in the second period compared to the first. States with a greater beneficial growth effect in the second period relative to the first, also show a fall in the magnitude of an adverse population shift effect in the urban areas, i.e., a relatively less rise in the incidence of urban poverty caused by rural-urban migration.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
224. Vulnerability to Globalization in India: Relative Rankings of States Using Fuzzy Models
- Author:
- Brinda Viswanathan and S. Kavi Kumar
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The net impact of globalization on developing countries, and more specifically on the poorer sections of population in these countries, is complex and context dependent, and hence needs to be analysed empirically. This study in the context of globalization attempts to develop regional level indices of vulnerability with respect to welfare loss in India using a methodology based on fuzzy inference systems. The vulnerability of an entity is conceptualized (following the practice in global climate change literature) as a function of its exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Empirical analysis based on such multidimensional conceptualization demands use of indicator-based approach which is attempted in this study and uses fuzzy models that adequately capture vagueness inherent in such approaches.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
225. Three Decades of Rural Development Projects in Asia, Latin America, and Africa: Learning From Successes and Failures
- Author:
- Annelies Zoomers
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This article aims to contribute to the discussion about how to make development interventions more effective by analyzing the factors contributing to the success or failure of rural development projects. We made an aggregate level analysis of 46 projects in the field of agricultural research (AR), water management (WM), natural resource management (NRM), and integrated rural development (IRD), financed by the Netherlands' Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) and carried out between 1975-2005 in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Making a distinction between the successful projects and failures, we showed the possibilities and limitations of evaluating projects on the basis of the official criteria (relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, sustainability and impact and/or using criteria such as poverty, gender, institutional development, governance and environment). We learned that project performance very much depends on whether interventions 'keep track' with local priorities and trends. This is much more important than 'measuring output' (are results in line with the project goal?) which is wrongly presented as a priority in monitoring and evaluation practices.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Asia, and Central America
226. International Finance and the Developing World: The Next Twenty Years
- Author:
- Tony Addison
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Much has changed in international finance in the twenty years since UNU-WIDER was founded. This paper identifies five broad contours of what we might expect in the next twenty years: the flow of capital from ageing societies to the more youthful economies of the South; the growth in the financial services industry in emerging economies and the consequences for their capital flows; the current strength in emerging market debt, and whether this represents a change in fundamentals or merely the effect of low global interest rates; the impact of globalization in goods markets in lowering inflation expectations, and therefore global bond yields; and the implications of the adjustment in global imbalances between Asia (in particular China) and the United States for emerging bond markets as a whole. The paper ends by noting the paradox that today we see ever larger amounts of capital flowing across the globe in search of superior investment returns, and yet the financing needs of the poorer countries are still largely unmet.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
227. Globalization And Military-Industrial Transformation In South Asia: An Historical Perspective
- Author:
- Emrys Chew
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper attempts to demonstrate the relevance of the historical method and the importance of identifying long-term globalizing patterns in understanding the military-industrial transformation and militarization of South Asia. Out of this particular historical matrix would flow the events of 9/11, as well as ongoing developments in the global 'war on terror', fought out in the wider periphery of South Asia.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Asia
228. Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition From Turmoil to Normalcy
- Author:
- Barnett Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and all that followed, Afghans and the handful of internationals working on Afghanistan could hardly have imagined being fortunate enough to confront today's problems. The Bonn Agreement of December 2001 providing for the "reestablishment of permanent government institutions" in Afghanistan was fully completed with the adoption of a constitution in January 2004, the election of President Hamid Karzai in October 2004, and the formation of the National Assembly in December 2005.
- Topic:
- Development and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
229. Economic Growth and India's Future?
- Author:
- Joydeep Mukherji
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- Recent optimism about India is based on the view that the country may finally be on a higher growth trajectory after more than a decade of halting economic reform. Spurred by a balance of payments crisis a decade ago that pushed the government of India to nearly defaulting on its foreign debt, a series of coalition governments have slowly deregulated the once most-regulated economy outside the communist world. Over the years, the government has enlarged the role of market forces, given more freedom to the private sector, and cut barriers to domestic and foreign competition. At the same time, India's state governments have gained considerable autonomy from the central government, making India into the federal state envisaged in its constitution.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- India, East Asia, and Asia
230. India's New Entrepreneurial Classes: The High Growth Economy and Why it is Sustainable?
- Author:
- Sunil Bharti Mittal
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- I am Francine Frankel, director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India, and it is my great pleasure this evening to introduce our speaker for CASI's Annual Lecture, Sunil Bharti Mittal, the founder, chairman, and group managing director, Bharti Enterprises. I hardly need tell this audience that Bharti Tele-Ventures is India's leading telecom conglomerate and its largest mobile service operator.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- India, East Asia, and Asia
231. Trade, Development and the Doha Round: A Sure Bet or a Train Wreck?
- Author:
- Daniel Drache
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the strategy and assumptions that are pushing the Doha Round into dangerously troubled waters, and it assesses the different agendas on the table. It summarizes how we reached the current deadlock, and examines the state of the WTO's legal dispute mechanism. It then critically assesses how divergences play out in the key policy areas of water exports, generic drugs, textile quotas, service-sector liberalization, and agricultural subsidies. Lastly, it will try to answer the question of whether Doha is 'a sure bet, or a train wreck' by looking at several of the prospects and possible scenarios that face the WTO post-Hong Kong. What is now evident is that a target deal seems more distant than ever. It would appear that evolution is not going to be kind to the WTO. The Doha Round is too complex which increases the possibility of failure; too intrusive to assuage many of global civil society's concerns and too anti-development for numerous countries in the Global South to come on board. Paradoxically, many countries are proving to be resilient and innovative when faced with the negotiating impasse and are not pushing the panic button. The global economy is not drifting towards protectionism and the core trading nations seem ready to accept a less dynamic WTO.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
232. From Soldier to Civilian: Disarmament Demobilisation Reintegration in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Peter Dahl Thruelsen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This report sets out to explore the processes of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) within the context of post-conflict peace-building. I have tried to investigate the transformation of soldiers to civilians in the aftermath of war. The purpose of the research is to facilitate practical recommendations of DDR to be used in future cases of post-conflict peace-building.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
233. The Rule of Law in China: Incremental Progress
- Author:
- Jamie P. Horsley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Western media reporting on China does not give the impression of a rule of law country. We read of frequent corruption scandals, a harsh criminal justice system still plagued by the use of torture, increasingly violent and widespread social unrest over unpaid wages, environmental degradation and irregular takings of land and housing. Outspoken academics, activist lawyers, investigative journalists and other champions of the disadvantaged and unfortunate are arrested, restrained or lose their jobs. Entrepreneurs have their successful businesses expropriated by local governments in seeming violation of the recently added Constitutional guarantee to protect private property. Citizens pursue their grievances more through extra-judicial avenues than in weak and politically submissive courts. Yet China's economy gallops ahead, apparently confounding conventional wisdom that economic development requires the rule of law.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
234. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai
- Author:
- Veron Mei-Ying Hung
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia
235. Vladimir Putin and Russia's Oil Policy
- Author:
- Martha Brill Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The honeymoon between the Western oil industry and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended in mid-2003 when the Russian procurator's office began arresting Yukos executives. The Kremlin's seemingly sudden attack on private industry surprised the international business community that was expecting investment-friendly behavior from the Russian leadership. After assuming power in late 1999, Putin quickly signaled interest in developing a strong energy partnership with the United States, including increased opportunities for Western firms to invest in Russia's oil and gas industry.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
236. Nepal's Maoists: Their Aims, Structure and Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In less than ten years, the Maoist insurgency has transformed Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has spread armed conflict across the country and reshaped its political environment irrevocably. But their political aims are still questioned, and not enough is known about their structure and strategy. This background report seeks to fill in many of the gaps, based on close study of their writings and actions and a wide range of interviews, in order to provide policymakers in Nepal and the international community with information and insights needed to approach a peace process realistically.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Nepal
237. The Rise of China with Special Reference to Arms Supplies
- Author:
- Peter Brookes, Bruno Tertrais, and Alexei D. Voskressenski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Like the rest of the world, Europe has been fascinated by the emergence of China for a long time, and there has been an official relationship between the EU and the People's Republic of China for 30 years now. This relationship was upgraded in 1998. It now takes the form of a China-EU summit every year, the latest having taken place in December 2004. The EU became China's main trading partner in 2004, with trade between the two parties soaring to €160 billion.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
238. Indo-US Relations: Where Are They Headed?
- Author:
- Ronen Sen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- I am Francine Frankel, director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India. It is a very special pleasure to extend a warm welcome to all of you for this special occasion. We are honored to welcome Ambassador of India Ronen Sen for a very unusual event. This is the opportunity to participate in a dialogue with India's most distinguished diplomat and active participant in ongoing discussions of the potential for changing the direction of India-US relations and potentially the future great power balance in Asia.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, East Asia, and Asia
239. "Qui a le bâton, a le buffle". Le corporatisme économique de l'armée pakistanaise
- Author:
- Amélie Blom
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- "He who has the stick, has the buffalo". This Punjabi proverb applies well to Pakistan's armed forces, a majority of which, in fact, hail from this province. They have gradually formed an economic interest group with many industrial and commercial activities that have become an integral part of Pakistan's everyday life. Oddly enough, this patent fact has been neglected by the academic research on Pakistan or, at best, has only been addressed in a descriptive manner. The present study attempts to explain the transformation of Pakistan's armed forces into a significant economic actor by reinterpreting Charles Tilly's thesis about the dependent militarization of Third World states. It emphasizes the crucial role played by local capital, especially land. It also stresses how endogenous historical factors (the colonial legacy) and political factors (the delicate civil-military balance of power) have helped the army to consolidate itself institutionally. Yet, since the 1980s, the expansion of military economic corporatism has provoked increased tensions between the army and its civilian partners, primarily the bureaucracy, which is the main loser in this unfair competition for state property. It also produces social resistance: unprecedented civil disobedience movements have appeared, and old grievances emanating from ethnic groups under-represented within the army have been reawakened. The phenomenon also creates friction within the armed forces themselves. Nevertheless, these tensions do not seriously undermine a corporatist rationale that is far too effective and functional to disappear. Paradoxically, the military's "privatisation" contributes to its internal cohesion. Indeed, military patrimonialism in Pakistan can usefully be analysed as one of the many processes that has helped the armed forces maintain a strong "esprit de corps" and which has given rise to what can be termed "military syndicalism".
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
240. BRICSAM and the Non-WTO
- Author:
- Agata Antkiewicz and John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- We discuss recent regional trade and economic partnership agreements involving the large population, rapidly growing economies (BRICSAM: Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa, ASEAN, and Mexico). Perhaps 50 out of 300 agreements that exist worldwide involve BRICSAM countries; most are recently concluded and will be implemented over the next few years. Along with extensive bilateral investment treaties, mutual recognition agreements, and other country to country (or region) arrangements they are part of what we term the non-WTO. This paper aims to document and characterize the agreements and analyze their possible impacts. Agreements differ in specificity, coverage and content. In some treaties there are detailed and specific commitments, but these also co-exist with seemingly vague commitments and (at times) opaque dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms. Whether these represent a partial replacement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) process for newly negotiated reciprocity based on global trade liberalization or largely represent diplomatic protocol alongside significant WTO disciplines is the subject of this paper.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico
241. A Half-Century of Development
- Author:
- Richard N. Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Development as a global policy objective dates from the 1940s. Relative to expectations then, the world economy performed outstandingly well during the second half of the 20th century. Worldwide growth in average per capita income exceeded two percent a year (historically unprecedented), many poor countries became rich, infant mortality declined, diets improved, longevity increased, diseases were contained if not vanquished. Poverty on the World Bank definition of $1 a day (in 1985$) declined dramatically, and the number of persons in poverty was halved despite a more than doubling of the world population. Variations occurred over time and space, with rapid growth being concentrated in Europe and Japan early in the period, then moving to east Asia, southeast Asia, and south Asia. Growth in the 1950s and especially the 1960s exceeded that in later decades. Examples of high growth could be found in every continent, but on average sub-Saharan Africa fared much less well than other regions. Declines in national per capita income were rare, and concentrated in Africa. Civil disorder was a common but not the universal cause of low growth. Median world income gained relative to the well-off, but both spurted ahead of the poorest. World exports grew more rapidly than output, often leading the way. Many countries gradually shifted their exports from primary products to labor-intensive manufactured goods, and as development proceeded to more sophisticated manufactures and services. The fraction of the labor force devoted to agriculture declined significantly. One country after another achieved social stability, created the right incentives for effort and risk-taking, and engaged constructively with the world economy, which facilitated economic growth. Those that lagged failed to meet one or more of these conditions. Civil and political liberties also spread during this period, although less certainly and less securely. On the whole, it was a good half century for mankind. The substantial poverty and misery that still exists should not lead to neglect or even denial of these achievements.
- Topic:
- Development, Inequality, Economy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Japan, Europe, and Asia
242. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia'
- Author:
- Takuji Kinkyo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Asia
243. Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe'
- Author:
- Takuji Kinkyo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
244. Divergent Means and Convergent Inequality of Incomes among the Provinces and Cities of Urban China
- Author:
- John Knight, Li Shi, and Zhao Renwei
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Two precisely comparable national household surveys relating to 1988 and 1995 are used to analyse changes in the inequality of income in urban China. Over those seven years province mean income per capita grew rapidly but diverged across provinces, whereas intra-province income inequality grew rapidly but converged across provinces. The reasons for these trends are explored by means of various forms of decomposition analysis. Comparisons are also made between the coastal provinces and the inland provinces. The decompositions show the central role of wages, and within wages profitrelated bonuses, together with the immobility of labour across provinces, in explaining mean income divergence. The timing of economic reforms helps to explain the convergence of intra-province income inequality. Policy conclusions are drawn.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
245. Income Inequality in Rural China: Regression-based Decomposition Using Household Data
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Zhangyue Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- A considerable literature exists on the measurement of income inequality in China and its increasing trend. Much less is known, however, about the driving forces of this trend and their quantitative contributions. Conventional decompositions, by factor components or by population subgroups, only provide limited information on the determinants of income inequality. This paper represents an early attempt to apply the regression-based decomposition framework to the study of inequality accounting in rural China, using household level data. It is found that geography has been the dominant factor but is becoming less important in explaining total inequality. Capital input emerges as a most significant determinant of income inequality. Farming structure is more important than labour and other inputs in contributing to income inequality across households.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
246. Fifty Years of Regional Inequality in China: A Journey through Central Planning, Reform, and Openness
- Author:
- Ravi Kanbur and Xiaobo Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper constructs and analyses a long-run time-series for regional inequality in China from the Communist Revolution to the present. There have been three peaks of inequality in the last fifty years, coinciding with the Great Famine of the late 1950s, the Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s and 1970s, and finally the period of openness and global integration in the late 1990s. Econometric analysis establishes that regional inequality is explained in the different phases by three key policy variables; the ratio of heavy industry to gross output value, the degree of decentralization, and the degree of openness.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
247. A Development-focused Allocation of the Special Drawing Rights
- Author:
- Ernest Aryeetey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Efforts to realize the issue of development-focused Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been on-going for many years. Recently, however, the campaign first gained a new momentum immediately after the Asian financial crises with the new liquidity problems of developing nations following the collapse of private capital markets. Currently the search for financing options towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals drives the interest in development-focused SDRs. Extending the uses to which SDR can be put is derived from the growing demands on the international financial system to respond to the development finance needs of poor nations. Apart from the need to provide emergency funds in times of crises and the whole area of crisis prevention, increasingly the facilitation of development in poor countries and assistance to make the best policy decisions is considered crucial.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
248. Minimal Investments, Minimal Results: The Failure of Security Policy in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Michael Bhatia, Kevin Lanigan, and Philip Wilkinson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- Prime Minister Tony Blair's 2003 declaration that the international community “will not walk away from” Afghanistan missed the real question: When will the international community really walk into Afghanistan, and make the necessary commitments and investments that will give the Afghan people a reasonable chance at building a peaceful and stable country?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia
249. CERI: The socio-political effects of forced migrations linked tomajor hydraulic projects in China. The example of the Three Gorges dam.
- Author:
- Florence Padovani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- The study of the population movements caused by the major Chinese hydraulic projects reveals the true extent of the change which has come about in relations between the State and society in China. The construction of the Three Gorges dam-which led to considerable controversy both within China and beyond - is a prime case in point.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
250. Transfrontier Cooperation in the North-West of Russia: 21st Century
- Author:
- Vladlena V. Eliseeva
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- This study has been prepared in conjunction with the Transfrontier Cooperation Do- nor Forum held in St. Petersburg on April 25, 2003 under the EastWest Instituteís Regional and Transfrontier Cooperation (RTFC) Program. EWI has over ten years of experience in transfrontier cooperation in various regions of Europe. Long before issues surrounding the upcoming EU enlargement were a top priority on the EU-Russia agenda, EWIís RTFC Program was researching and assessing the impact of enlargement on the Baltic Sea Region in general, and on the Kaliningrad Region (EWIís priority area in the North-West of Russia) in particular. Today, in view of the upcoming European Union enlargement, transfrontier cooperation (TFC) has assumed an increasing importance for the future of a larger Europe.
- Topic:
- Development and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia