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82. "Fixing Broken Windows": Security Sector Reform in Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen
- Author:
- Yezid Sayigh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As they emerge from conflict, states can rarely commence the arduous task of reconstruction and consolidate their governments until they undertake extensive restructuring of their security forces. Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen are all fractured, quasi-democratic states with divided societies, and deep disagreement over what constitutes the national interest. Successful reform in each will require security institutions that answer to democratically-elected civilian leaders, but the U.S. and European approach has thus far focused largely on providing military training and equipment, targeted toward counterterrorist capabilities.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Lebanon
83. Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral
- Author:
- Christopher Boucek
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Yemen faces a great and growing number of challenges that endanger its political future and threaten its neighbors on the Arabian Peninsula. War, terror- ism, a deepening secessionist movement, and interconnected economic and demographic trends have the potential to overwhelm the Yemeni government, jeopardizing domestic stability and security across the region. Yemen's oil—the source of over 75 percent of its income—is quickly running out, and the country has no apparent way to transition to a post-oil economy. The dire economic situation makes it increasingly difficult for the government to deliver the funds needed to hold the country together.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Development, Oil, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Arabia
84. Between Government and Opposition: The Case of the Yemeni Congregation for Reform
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Like Islamist parties across the Arab world, Yemen's Islamist Congregation for Reform (Islah) has a religious ideology and platform. Islah participates in legal politics in hopes of accomplishing constitutional and socioeconomic reforms, and over time it has committed itself to upholding democratic procedures internally as well as externally.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia
85. Bush, Clausewitz, and the Grand Strategic Imperative: Keeping Political Ends Primary
- Author:
- Bryan Groves
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- As President George W. Bush relinquishes the reigns as Commander-in-Chief to President Barak Obama, it is fitting to reflect on how the country will remember President Bush in years to come. Whether or not one agrees with his decision to commit U.S. forces to military action against Saddam Hussein and his Ba'ath Party regime in Iraq, it is clear that Bush's legacy will largly be determined by how Iraq turns out--whether as a stable, free, and peace-loving democracy or something short of that. There is certainly plenty of room for continued improvement in the conditions on the ground and ample time for the political, security, and economic situation to yet deteriorate. Yet, since "The Surge" and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq, developments in Iraq have taken a fundamentally and undeniably positive turn.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
86. Iraq's Provincial Elections: The Stakes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 31 January, Iraqis will head to the polls in fourteen of eighteen governorates to elect new provincial councils. The stakes are considerable. Whereas the January 2005 elections helped put Iraq on the path to all-out civil war, these polls could represent another, far more peaceful turning point. They will serve several important objectives: refreshing local governance; testing the strength of various parties; and serving as a bellwether for nationwide political trends. In several governorates, new parties or parties that failed to run four years ago may oust, or at least reduce the dominance of, a handful of dominant parties whose rule has been marred by pervasive mismanagement and corruption. This in itself would be a positive change with far-reaching consequences as the nation braces for parliamentary elections later in 2009.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Civil War, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
87. Islamists in Politics: The Dynamics of Participation
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Islamist parties and movements in Arab countries that have strategically chosen to participate in the legal political process, acknowledging the legitimacy of the existing constitutional framework, have gained great political importance. Their participation raises two major questions: are they truly committed to democracy? And will participation have a positive, moderating influence on their positions, pushing them to focus on public policy platforms rather than ideological debates?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
88. The Draft Party Platform of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Foray Into Political Integration or Retreat Into Old Positions?
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy and Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In the late summer 2007, amid great anticipation from Egypt's ruling elite and opposition movements, the Muslim Brotherhood distributed the first draft of a party platform to a group of intellectuals and analysts. The platform was not to serve as a document for an existing political party or even one about to be founded: the Brotherhood remains without legal recognition in Egypt and Egypt's rulers and the laws they have enacted make the prospect of legal recognition for a Brotherhood-founded party seem distant. But the Brotherhood's leadership clearly wished to signal what sort of party they would found if allowed to do so.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
89. Electing the Lebanese President
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- The meeting of the Lebanese Parliament on Tuesday 23 October 2007 to elect a new President of the Republic has been adjourned to 21 November. After earlier attempts to hold the vote failed to take place and without any parliamentary consensus on procedures or candidates, this IFES Lebanon briefing paper outlines some of the key constitutional and procedural issues that may arise.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon
90. Incumbent Regimes and the "King's Dilemma" in the Arab World: Promise and Threat of Managed Reform
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Incumbent regimes in the Arab world, monarchical and republican alike, have weathered the period of intense, worldwide political change that has followed the end of the Cold War without giving up much of their power. Though not completely untouched by events that have shaken the rest of the world, most Arab regimes have survived the wave of political transformation that has engulfed the rest of the world relatively intact. Many regimes have carried out reforms, but the reforms have been directed at modernizing the economy and addressing social issues rather than redistributing power in the political system. Indeed, most regimes that talk of political reform are in reality avoiding it. To be sure, there have been some political changes: For example, more political parties exist today in most Arab countries than fifteen years ago, and more countries hold elections of varying quality. Access to information and the quality of political debate have increased in many countries as well. Power, however, remains firmly where it was: in the hands of kings and presidents.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
91. The Draft Party Platform of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Foray Into Political Integration or Retreat Into Old Positions?
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In the late summer 2007, amid great anticipation from Egypt's ruling elite and opposition movements, the Muslim Brotherhood distributed the first draft of a party platform to a group of intellectuals and analysts. The platform was not to serve as a document for an existing political party or even one about to be founded: the Brotherhood remains without legal recognition in Egypt and Egypt's rulers and the laws they have enacted make the prospect of legal recognition for a Brotherhood-founded party seem distant. But the Brotherhood's leadership clearly wished to signal what sort of party they would found if allowed to do so.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
92. Requiem for Palestinian Reform: Clear Lessons from a Troubled Record
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Never has the cause of political reform in the Arab world received as strong verbal support— on both the international and domestic political levels—as it did in Palestine between 2002 and 2006. And while much of the Palestinian reform agenda remained unrealized, Palestinian governance changed in fundamental ways during the reform wave. But international backers of reform in particular had a remarkably short-term focus, a highly personalized view of the process, and a very instrumental view of reform, leading them to turn harshly against the achievements of the Palestinian reform movement when it brought unexpected results. What can this combination of success and disillusioned failure teach us about the cause of Arab political reform?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
93. Lebanon: Finding a Path from Deadlock to Democracy
- Author:
- Julia Choucair
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is arguably the most democratic Arab state. Under parliamentary rule since becoming independent in 1943, it has regular elections, numerous political parties, and relatively free and lively news media. Lebanon also has one of the most complex political systems in the Middle East, based on the premise that a careful balance in all aspects of political life must be maintained among the seventeen recognized religious communities. While this confessional system has spared Lebanon the authoritarianism experienced by many Arab regimes in the twentieth century, paradoxically it has also prevented the transition to a truly democratic state. Nor has the confessional system eliminated the factional strife it was designed to avoid.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon
94. Final Report: National Democratic Institute Final Report on the Palestinian Presidential Election, Jan. 9, 2005
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- At the invitation of the Palestinian Central Election Commission (CEC), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), in partnership with The Carter Center (TCC), organized a 76- member international delegation to monitor the January 2005 Palestinian presidential election. The delegation was led by former United States President Jimmy Carter, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt and former New Jersey Governor and United States Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christine Todd Whitman, and supported by a grant from the United States Agency for International Development.
- Topic:
- Civil Society and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
95. Masque of Democracy: Iraqi Election System Still Disfavors Sunni Arabs, Favors Kurds
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- In its National Strategy for Victory in Iraq the Bush administration recognizes that the key to defusing the insurgency is drawing the Sunni Arab community into the political process. And it correctly sees that this requires "inclusive institutions that offer power-sharing mechanisms and minority protections." As the strategy notes: such institutions would "demonstrate to disaffected Sunnis that they have influence and the ability to protect their interests in a democratic Iraq." Unfortunately, the administration finds it difficult to apply this precept where it would matter most: in the election process.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan
96. Political Reform in the Arab World: A New Ferment?
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- IN THE THREE YEARS SINCE THE TERRORIST ATTACKS of September 11, 2001, the question of Arab reform not only has become closely linked in the minds of Western policy makers to the fight against Al Qaeda, but also has become a dominant theme of discussion in the region itself. Arab satellite television stations broadcast talk shows featuring vigorous discussions about the persistence of authoritarian rule in Arab countries and the incompetence of incumbent regimes. The opinion pages of Arab newspapers are replete with articles championing democratic reform as the only way to strengthen the region against Western control, or, conversely, to connect it with globalization and “modernity.” Civil society groups, political parties, and even business organizations are promulgating reform manifestos with increasing regularity. Political reform is also the focus of heated debates in unexpected circles such as the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and the Saudi royal family. All Arab governments have acknowledged the need for reform in principle (some have even talked of democracy), and many have announced their own reform initiatives.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Arab Countries, and Egypt
97. Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The removal of the Ba'ath regime in 2003 opened a Pandora's box of long-suppressed aspirations, none as potentially explosive as the Kurds' demand, expressed publicly and with growing impatience, for wide-ranging autonomy in a region of their own, including the oil- rich governorate of Kirkuk. If mismanaged, the Kurdish question could fatally undermine the political transition and lead to renewed violence. Kurdish leaders need to speak more candidly with their followers about the compromises they privately acknowledge are required, and the international community needs to work more proactively to help seal the historic deal.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Arabia, and Kirkuk
98. Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform
- Author:
- Daniel Brumberg
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- No American administration has talked more about democracy in the Middle East than the Bush administration. The president and his advisors have spoken optimistically about a post-Saddam democracy in Iraq, one that might eventually become a veritable light to other Arab nations. This grand vision assumes that sooner or later, advocates of democracy throughout the Middle East will demand the same freedoms and rights that Iraqis are now claiming. Yet, however inspiring this vision appears, the actual reform plan that the administration has thus far set out is unlikely to produce radical changes in the Arab world. Regardless of how dramatic the change in Baghdad is, when it comes to our friends in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Yemen, the administration's reform plan points to evolution rather than revolution.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Egypt
99. Promoting Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since early last year, the Bush administration has paid unaccustomed attention to the issue of democracy in the Middle East. Following September 11, many U. S. officials have worried that the authoritarianism of most Arab regimes has bred frustration in their countries, and this frustration has in turn favored the growth of terrorist organizations. U.S. discussions about the need for democracy in the Middle East have triggered a strong negative reaction by Arab commentators and journalists, including in discussions of democracy in the Arab press. However, very little of this writing has dealt with the problem of democracy in the real sense—that is, with the issue of how Arab governments relate to their citizens now and how they should relate to their citizens in the future. Instead, Arab commentators have treated democracy as a foreign policy issue, asking why the United States is suddenly discussing democracy in the Arab world and what true intentions it is trying to hide behind the smoke screen of democracy talk. The debate in the Arab press reveals some of the obstacles that the United States faces as it attempts to define its new pro-democracy role in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
100. Establishing a Stable Democratic Constitutional Structure in Iraq: Some Basic Considerations
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- As the situation in Iraq continues to stabilize, the people of Iraq will turn to the task of reconstituting an Iraqi state. One of the first steps in this process will be to design, agree upon, and implement a new constitutional structure. While drafting a new constitution is a difficult and contentious process for any country, the challenges are substantially magnified for Iraq given its complex mosaic of ethnic and religious identities, the history of repression under Saddam Hussein, the necessary presence of American forces, and Iraq's complex relations with its neighboring states.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia