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1. The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge

Author:
Michael Spence and Sandile Hlatshwayo
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolving structure of the American economy, specifically, the trends in employment, value added, and value added per employee from 1990 to 2008. These trends are closely connected with complementary trends in the size and structure of the global economy, particularly in the major emerging economies. Employing historical time series data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. industries are separated into internationally tradable and nontradable components, allowing for employment and value-added trends at both the industry and the aggregate level to be examined. Value added grew across the economy, but almost all of the incremental employment increase of 27.3 million jobs was on the nontradable side. On the nontradable side, government and health care are the largest employers and provided the largest increments (an additional 10.4 million jobs) over the past two decades. There are obvious questions about whether those trends can continue; without fast job creation in the nontradable sector, the United States would already have faced a major employment challenge.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

2. Defining Success: The Case against Rail Transit

Author:
Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Over the past four decades, American cities have spent close to $100 billion constructing rail transit systems, and many billions more operating those systems. The agencies that spend taxpayer dollars building these lines almost invariably call them successful even when they go an average of 40 percent over budget and, in many cases, carry an insignificant number of riders. The people who rarely or never ride these lines but still have to pay for them should ask, “How do you define success?"
Topic:
Government, Markets, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
America

3. Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors: 2010

Author:
Chris Edwards
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
State governments have had to make tough budget choices in recent years. Tax revenues have stagnated as a result of the poor economy, and that has prompted governors to take a variety of fiscal actions to close large budget gaps. Some governors have cut spending to balance their budgets, while others have pursued large tax increases.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
America

4. Halfway to Where? Answering the Key Questions of Health Care Reform

Author:
Michael Tanner
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Although neither the House nor the Senate passed a health care bill by President Obama's August deadline, various pieces of legislation have made it through committee, and they provide a concrete basis for analyzing what the proposed health care reform would and would not do. Looking at the various bills that are moving on Capitol Hill, we can determine the following: Contrary to the Obama administration's repeated assurances, millions of Americans who are happy with their current health insurance will not be able to keep it. As many as 89.5 million people may be dumped into a government-run plan. Some Americans may find themselves forced into a new insurance plan that no longer includes their current doctor. Americans will pay more than $820 billion in additional taxes over the next 10 years, and could see their insurance premiums rise as much as 95 percent. The current health care bills will increase the budget deficit by at least $239 billion over the next 10 years, and far more in the years beyond that. If the new health care entitlement were subject to the same 75-year actuarial standards as Social Security or Medicare, its unfunded liabilities would exceed $9.2 trillion. While the bills contain no direct provisions for rationing care, they nonetheless increase the likelihood of government rationing and interference with how doctors practice medicine. Contrary to assertions of some opponents, the bills contain no provision for euthanasia or mandatory end-of-life counseling. The bills' provisions on abortion coverage are far murkier.
Topic:
Government, Health, Human Welfare, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and America

5. American Multinationals and American Economic Interests: New Dimensions to an Old Debate

Author:
Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The 2008 election rekindled debate about whether US multinationals shift technology across borders and relocate production in ways that might harm workers and communities at home. President Obama now pledges to end tax breaks for corporations that ship jobs overseas. The preoccupation about the behavior of American multinationals takes three forms: (1) that US-based multinational corporations may follow a strategy that leads them to abandon the home economy, leaving the workers and communities to cope on their own with few appealing alternatives after the multinationals have left; (2) worse, that US-based multinational corporations may not just abandon home sites but drain off capital, substitute production abroad for exports, and “hollow out” the domestic economy in a zero-sum process that damages those left behind; and (3) worst, that US-based multinational corporations may deploy a rent-gathering apparatus that switches from sharing supranormal profits and externalities with US workers and communities to extracting rents from the United States. Each of these concerns contains a hypothetical outcome that can be compared with contemporary evidence from the United States and other home countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

6. Bending the Productivity Curve: Why America Leads the World in Medical Innovation

Author:
Glen Whitman and Raymond Raad
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The health care issues commonly considered most important today — controlling costs and covering the uninsured — arguably should be regarded as secondary to innovation, inasmuch as a medical treatment must first be invented before its costs can be reduced and its use extended to everyone. To date, however, none of the most influential international comparisons have examined the contributions of various countries to the many advances that have improved the productivity of medicine over time. We hope this paper can help fill that void.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, and Markets
Political Geography:
America

7. The Politics of Adjustment and Coordination at the Regional Level: The Basque Country

Author:
Sebastian Royo
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Is globalization forcing non-“Coordinated Market Economies” such as Spain to converge on an Anglo-American model? This paper seeks to build on the hypotheses generated by the literature on “Varieties of Capitalism” to analyze the challenges of developing and sustaining coordination while adjusting for economic change. In particular it seeks to explore ways in which subnational factors promote the ability of socioeconomic actors to develop public-private institutions. By focusing on a particular autonomous region of Spain, the Basque Country, this paper will explore the role of institutional arrangements at the regional level in determining national adjustment. In the Basque Country the relative power and the particular interests of the regional state have been central factors in promoting distinctive patterns of coordination. At the same time, actors' preferences and policy outcomes have been constrained by the differences in the quality and configuration of institutional frameworks, political deals, and the existing economic structure.
Topic:
Economics and Markets
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Spain

8. Trade Liberalization: Cordell Hull and the Case for Optimism

Author:
Douglas A. Irwin
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The news from Geneva of the breakdown of the Doha Round after seven years of effort has generated a great deal of pessimism about the future of multilateral trade agreements. America's troubles with the World Trade Organization (WTO) are of course only the beginning. There are also domestic problems when it comes to trade policy, an issue that ties together America's economic prosperity and its global political influence. Recent public opinion polls in the United States reveal increased skepticism about the benefits of globalization and diminished support for free trade policies. The post–World War II bipartisan consensus in favor of open trade has broken up, leading to gr eater resistance to new trade agreements in Congress, as reflected in the House's recent decision to postpone consideration of the Colombia free trade agreement (FTA). Despite efforts in the Doha Round to limit agricultural subsidies, Congress recently showered domestic farmers with more cash in the recently passed Farm Bill, even at a time when commodity prices are soaring.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, America, and Colombia

9. Why Warner-Lieberman Failed and How to Get America's Working Families behind the Next Cap-and-Trade Bill

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Among partisans of greenhouse gas emissions regulation, the Senate's failure to pass the Warner-Lieberman cap-and-trade bill is often attributed to rampant denial, fueled by diehard political conservatism, energy-company propaganda, and government suppression of evidence on global warming. If so, the solution to the problem is electoral change, exposure of the propaganda, and public education. However, public concern is already so widespread that even leaders of the Southern Baptist Convention have acknowledged the need for action. In this paper, I consider two additional forces that have stymied carbon emissions regulation in developing countries. The first is the perception that costly carbon regulation promoted by the rich will inflict an unjust burden on the poor. The second is hostility to taxation of critical fossil-fuel resources that were developed long before climate risk was identified. My econometric analysis suggests that these same forces have significantly affected senators' votes on Warner-Lieberman. By implication, Congress is not likely to approve cap-and-trade legislation unless Americans with below-median incomes are compensated for expected losses. My analysis supports recent proposals for direct distribution of emissions permit auction revenues to American families on an equal per-capita basis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Government, Markets, and Politics
Political Geography:
America

10. France and Globalization

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Globalization is changing all of our lives as the pace of economic interdependence grows between developed and emerging countries. Debate thrives about whether globalization has been good or bad for European consumers, workers, companies and governments and what are the prospects in the future. In a dynamic and uncertain world can Europe act to take advantage of the opportunities created by globalization and mitigate its challenges?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and France

11. Great Expectations: Mexico's Short-lived Convergence under NAFTA

Author:
Carol Wise
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Upon Mexico's entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), neo-classical trade theory assumed, first, that it had the greatest potential for higher rates of growth, productivity and overall welfare gains due to its relatively underdeveloped status; and second, that Mexico's adjustment to an integrated, liberal economy would be the most painful but also the most beneficial. It was envisioned that the blending of Mexico's endowment factors – cheap labour, natural resources, and proximity to the US market – with the abundant capital and advanced technology of Canada and the US would maximize on NAFTA's competitive potential over the long-term. However, these expectations have yet to fully materialize. This paper reviews the convergence/divergence debate with regard to NAFTA and Mexico, and analyzes the empirical data that have been used to tout both the benefits and the costs of asymmetrical integration. In light of the standstill in Mexico's per capita growth since 2001, this paper concludes with a critique of the potential role of NAFTA as a development tool and argues that the steep regional asymmetries call for a more proactive continental strategy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
America, Central America, and Mexico

12. Saluting Urban Market Pathfinders

Author:
Alyssa Stewart Lee
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
While many developers and investors intuitively believe in the potential for profitable returns in American cities, there is a lack of visibility into what works and what does not work in urban markets. This week the Urban Markets Initiative at the Brookings Institution honors Urban Market Pathfinders who have demonstrated excellence capturing market potential by investing in communities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, Development, and Markets
Political Geography:
America

13. Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States

Author:
Yuji Genda, Ayako Kondo, and Souichi Ohta
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
We examine effects of entering the labor market during a recession on subsequent earnings and employment for Japanese and American men, using comparable household labor force surveys. Previous analyses focus on search theoretic and implicit-contract arguments, which have their strongest effects on more educated workers. We argue that, in a country like Japan which has a dual labor market, there is an additional mechanism that affects mainly less educated workers. Namely, these workers are more likely to be trapped in the secondary sector if they graduate during a recession. We find a persistent, strong negative effect on earnings for less educated Japanese men, in contrast to no long-term effect for less educated American men; also, a substantial part of the effect for less educated Japanese men is attributed to the decreased probability of regular employment. The effect for the more educated group is more or less similar in both countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, America, Israel, and Asia

14. Using the Earned Income Tax Credit to Stimulate Local Economies

Author:
Alan Berube
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Over the 30 years of its existence the federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been described variously as a wage supplement, a program to reduce tax burdens, an antipoverty tool, a welfare-to-work program, and a form of labor market insurance. The program has enjoyed expansions under both Republican and Democratic administrations, and in 2006, the EITC will provide more than $40 billion to low-income working families. The credit lifts nearly 5 million Americans above the poverty line each year. Moreover, because the EITC aids only those families with earnings from work, researchers have credited it with raising labor force participation levels and helping families transition from welfare to work.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and America

15. Measuring the Informal Economy - One Neighborhood at a Time

Author:
Yusef Freeman, John Talmage, and Jamie Alderslade
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The study of the urban informal economy has expanded in the last thirty years, challenging researchers to find more accurate methods of quantifying its activity. This paper examines recent works that focused on the urban informal economy in particular, and evaluates different definitions and techniques for measuring it. Methods discussed include indirect estimation methods, such as currency demand, electricity consumption, and labor force statistical profiles, as well as direct estimation measures such as labor force and household surveys. This paper discusses the prospects for applying these largely macro-level methods to more micro-market analysis and speculates on the avail ability and usefulness of existing data sources in the United States. It concludes by suggesting that there is much room for further research on the size, determinants and implications of the informal economy in American cities and calls for new efforts to align different methods of measuring the inform al economy so they can be increasingly used to support decision-making processes in the public and private sectors.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and America

16. Credit Scores, Reports, and Getting Ahead in America

Author:
Matt Fellowes
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Everyday, more than 27,000 employees in the credit bureau industry walk into over 1,000 locations around the country and process over 66 million items of information. Out of this massive churning of activity, credit bureaus produce consumer credit reports and scores, two of the most powerful determinants of modern American consumer life.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and America

17. Reforming U.S. Patent Policy: Getting the Incentives Right

Author:
Keith E. Mascus
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
America's robust economic competitiveness is du e in no small part to a large capacity for innovation. That capacity is imperiled, however, by an increasingly overprotective patent system. Over the past twenty-five years, American legislators and judges have operated on the principle that stronger patent protection engenders more innovation. This principle is misguided. Although intellectual property rights (IPR) play an important role in innovation, the recent increase in patent protection has not spurred innovation so much as it has impeded the development and use of new technologies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America