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402. Information and Communication Technology in the Lives of Forcibly Displaced Persons in Kenya
- Author:
- Mirko Eppler, Stella Gaetani, Patrick Köllner, Jana Kuhnt, Charles Martin-Shields, Nyat Mebrahtu, Antonia Peters, and Carlotta Preiß
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- There is a great deal of potential for digital tools to help refugees, but there are still major economic and infrastructure hurdles before all refugees are online. Evidence from three sites in Kenya provide evidence that can guide future digitalization efforts for working with refugees.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Communications, Infrastructure, Refugees, Displacement, and Information Technology
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
403. The LFDD – Human Mobility Nexus in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean: A Review of National Policy and Legal Frameworks
- Author:
- Diogo Andreola Serraglio
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Addressing human mobility in the context of land and forest degradation and desertification (LFDD) in global and national policy and legal frameworks remains essential for improved management of population movements related to slow onset processes.
- Topic:
- Environment, Population, Mobility, Land, and Forest
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean
404. Ending the EU’s Ambivalence to Free Movement in Africa
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes and Mark McQuay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- When the October 2020 summit between the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU) was postponed, leaders blamed the pandemic. Yet, there was a sense that the issue went deeper. Both sides still resent the other’s handling of what Europeans refer to as the “migration crisis” of 2015. AU officials complain about the EU’s divide-and-rule approach to managing migration, while their European counterparts allege that AU officials encouraged African states to leverage migration flows to extort cash. Yet migration remains an area where the EU and AU policy agendas are in fact broadly aligned, on paper and in political rhetoric at least. The AU has adopted a free movement protocol and is looking at mobility to strengthen the continental labour market and promote intra-African capital flows. The EU has lent its support to the project, keen to build bridges with Africa on a traditionally divisive issue.
- Topic:
- European Union, Mobility, African Union, and Freedom of Movement
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
405. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa
- Author:
- Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
- Topic:
- Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
406. Conflict and Cooperation in the Eastern Nile: The Role of Business
- Author:
- Rawia Tawfik
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- The discussion of the role of business in resource-based conflicts in Afri- ca in general and the Nile basin in particular, has been dominated by two approaches. The first approach emphasizes the role of business in exacer- bating domestic and transboundary conflicts by engaging in land and wa- ter grabs.1 In the Nile basin, large-scale land acquisitions by foreign cor- porations have often been considered as a means of exploiting land and water resources, and a factor that increases uncertainty and complexity in hydropolitical relations in the basin.2 This investigation of foreign invest- ments can be linked to a broader literature on promoting good governance of natural resources. This literature focuses on increasing transparency and accountability of all stakeholders, including non-state actors involved in the use of natural resources and ensuring the sustainable management of these resources.3 In contrast, the second approach, which focuses more on transboundary business cooperation, argues that economic cooperation, not only between state actors, but also between corporations could de-escalate conflicts over shared water resources. According to this approach, the private sector can act as ‘an agent of change’ by creating shared interests across borders and engaging in confidence-building activities.4 International organizations and funding institutions have supported multi-stakeholder forums to strength- en transnational cooperation between non-state actors and pushed for public-private partnerships to implement projects at transboundary levels.5 In the Nile basin, inter-riparian investments have been suggested as a po- tential means of reducing tensions through trading virtual water (i.e. the volume of water used in the production of commodities, goods, or services) from water-rich upstream countries, especially Ethiopia to water-scarce downstream countries, especially Egypt.6 It has been suggested that the more Egypt invests in upstream countries (and Sudan) for domestic agri- cultural production, the less likely it would resort to military means against these countries to secure access to the Nile waters to feed its own popula- tion. This assumption indicates that while inter-riparian investments may increase conflict within receiving countries, it may reduce conflicts between these countries.7 This paper contributes to this debate by examining the actual roles played by Egyptian businesses in the hydro-political and hydro-economic relations between the three Eastern Nile countries and the factors that affect these roles. It argues that the two approaches criticizing business's contribution to conflict or applauding its contribution to cooperation have not adequately captured the complexity and variety of roles played by business. It also does not adequately summarize the possible contradictory impacts of these roles on conflict and cooperation between riparian states. These approaches also downplay the impact of state-business relations and of the basin context, especially the history of hydro-political relations, on these roles. The paper will also address four main questions: what are the motivations of Egyptian businesses investing in Ethiopia and Sudan? To what extent do tensions over the utilization of the Nile waters factor into risk assessment of investments in the two countries? What roles do Egyptian public and pri- vate corporations play in promoting economic cooperation and reducing the potential of conflict, or increasing tensions between Egypt on the one hand, and Ethiopia and Sudan on the other hand? What factors affect these roles and how? And how can the business community better contribute to reduc- ing tensions over the utilization of water resources and promoting wider economic cooperation between Eastern Nile countries?
- Topic:
- Privatization, Water, Business, Conflict, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt
407. ECOWAS Mediation in Togo's 2017/2018 Political Crisis: Feats, Deadlocks, and Lessons
- Author:
- Brown Odigie
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- On August 18, 2017, opposition1 figures in the Republic of Togo, a member-state of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), took to the streets to protest the continued rule of Faure Gnassingbé, the incum- bent president of the country who has spent 14 years in power. They demand- ed constitutional reforms, and in particular, a return to the 1992 constitu- tion, which would, bring back a constitutional provision limiting presidential tenure to two-terms of five years only. Other reforms demanded included a demand for a two-round system2 for presidential elections, reform of elec- toral laws and the election management body, review of the voters’ register, as well as voting rights for Togolese nationals in the diaspora. In a quick progression of events, the protesters made additional demands including one for an immediate end3 to the regime of Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has been accused of institutionalizing dynastic rule starting with his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who ruled the country from 1967 till his death in of- fice on February 5, 2005. For several months, on regular intervals, leaders of the opposition and civil society groups mobilized different social groups including youths and women to continue to make these demands on the government. occasionally in violent demonstrations that led to public disor- der, looting ofOccasionally these protests degenerated into violent demon- strations that led to public disorder, looting of private and public goods, and loss of lives. The initial reaction of the government was to crack down on the protesters, using state apparatuses of force to shut down the internet, which was crucial for mobilization, arresting4 a number of activists on the streets of Lomé, the country's capital. The protests, however, continued as protesters were undeterred,5 and soon spread to the country’s second larg- est city of Sokodé in the central region. Following persistent demonstra- tions and calls by the international community, notably, ECOWAS, France, the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the African Union Commission (AUC) for an immediate dialogue in resolving the impasses, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé finally accepted to dialogue and negotiate with the opposition. Leveraging on a preventive diplomacy conceptual framework of analysis, this paper highlights the nuances and the herculean task of mediating po- litical conflicts by regional organizations such as ECOWAS. It does so es- pecially in relation to preventing protests from escalating into violent con- flict, navigating deadlocks, and achieving concessions on important political and constitutional matters that might alter the existing power equation. It analyses the spate of criticism that trailed ECOWAS’ mediation of the cri- sis during a period the Togolese president, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé, was the Chair of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS (June 2017 to July 2018) as well as the efforts to maintain impartiality by the Fa- cilitators appointed by ECOWAS to assist the government and opposition stakeholders to negotiate a political settlement and implement constitu- tional reforms. The paper also raises questions about the rationality of the decision of the coalition of fourteen opposition parties (C14) to boycott the December 20, 2018 legislative elections, noting that the election boycott hardly achieved its intended purpose of delegitimizing the government. It, however, com- mends the ability of the opposition to learn key lessons from the boycott, and emphasizes the imperative for both the government and the opposition parties to continue exploring avenues for inclusive dialogue in addressing unresolved contentious issues, not only with respect to the immediate 2020 presidential elections, but more importantly, efforts at expanding the polit- ical and civic space and strengthening the role of civil society organizations in democratic processes in the country. The paper concludes by extolling the steadiness and the resilience of West African citizens in demanding for, and, or defending constitutional provisions that limit presidential tenures. It also notes that such vigilance and resilience are needed if democratic cul- ture and good governance are to be deepened in the region.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Diplomacy, Governance, Peace, Mediation, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and Togo
408. Contemporary Investigations on Academic Freedom and Conflict in Africa: A Metaphorical Linguistic Analysis
- Author:
- Abdul Karim Bangura
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- That transgression against academic freedom is a major human fault line that leads to conflict in Africa is hardly a matter of dispute. Yet, this topic has not received its deserved attention in the study of peace and conflict on the continent. By arguing that one factor that is employed to contravene academic freedom in Africa comprises the metaphors that are employed in discussing the issue, this paper offers a linguistic analysis of the metaphors that have appeared in contemporary works on the topic, beginning with the one commissioned by CODESRIA, edited by Mamadou Diouf and Mah- moud Mamdani, and published in 1993 to that written by John Higgins and published in 2014. This is essential because metaphors are not just “more picturesque speech.” The power of metaphors hinges upon their ability to assimilate new experiences so as to allow the newer and abstract domain of experience to be understood in terms of the former and more concrete, and to serve as a basis and justification for policy making. We should there- fore be horrified by the metaphors that have become the currency in our discourses within the academy, as some of these lead to the loss of lives, employment, gender equity, benefits, prestige, etc.
- Topic:
- Linguistics, Academia, Domestic Policy, and Free Speech
- Political Geography:
- Africa
409. Youth Patronage: Violence, Intimidation, and Political Mobilization in Zimbabwe
- Author:
- Godfrey Maringira and Simbarashe Gukurume
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- The Zimbabwean political terrain has been inundated with deep seated youth violence and neopatrimonial politics, mediated through Pres- ident Robert Mugabe and his political party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and its patronage networks. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork research with youth in Harare, this paper focuses on the dynamics of youth patronage and violence as a tool of political mobiliza- tion by ZANU-PF in urban spaces. This paper shows that one of the remark- able ways in which Mugabe has been able to remain in power is through his ability to transform his political position into a source of opportunities for his political clients. It examines the ways in which Mugabe’s political party mobilizes political violence in return for political benefits within the city of Harare. We examine this political patronage system and the ways in which it influences the ordinary lives of youth in the city. We argue that Mugabe should be construed as a political ‘Big Man’ patron with a huge network of political clients, the youth included. We show how ZANU-PF creates paral- lel structures that mediate the exchange of resources in return for political loyalty and mobilization of violence by ZANU-PF against its real or perceived political nemesis.
- Topic:
- Youth, Violence, Political Parties, and Mobilization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
410. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
411. Regional Developmentalism in West Africa: The Case for Commodity-Based Industrialisation through Regional Cooperation in the Cocoa-Chocolate Sector
- Author:
- Jonathan Bashi Rudahindwa and Sophie van Huellen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Regional integration occupies a prominent place in the economic policies of most Sub- Saharan African countries. However, despite different waves of initiatives across the African continent, the majority of African regional schemes have not managed to achieve their ambitious goal of promoting sustainable development through trade integration in Africa. In light of this observation, using the West African cocoa- chocolate sector as a case study, we propose the regional developmentalism paradigm as an alternative approach to regionalism in Africa, placing a particular emphasis on the use of regional and sub-regional approaches to development. Instead of full-fledged trade liberalisation and indiscriminate economic integration, the regional developmentalism paradigm advocates for state-led trade facilitation, regulatory convergence and capacity-building through the adoption of policies directed at strategic sectors. We evaluate the potential of the regional developmentalism paradigm to promote economic transformation and commodity-based industrialisation against the shortcomings of the current regional integration approach embodied in the institutional framework of ECOWAS.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Commodities, Regionalism, and Industrialization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
412. Paris, Algiers Concerned over Mali’s Transitional Regime
- Author:
- Rina Bassist
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses the regional and international challenges facing Mali's new transitional government, and its precarious security situation. Can Mali’s new government regain territorial control and restore personal security? For the past four months, Mali has been governed by a transition government that was set up after a military coup d’état in the summer of 2020. The international community initially condemned the coup, but it has since been forced to accept this reality, and has been encouraging Mali’s military and the transition government to advance the implementation of the 2015 Algiers peace accords. Yet actions taken so far by the military and the new regime do not bode well for the future of the country, and are showing signs of weakness vis-à-vis a multitude of armed groups, including several jihadi militant organizations.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali
413. Democratic Change and Urbanisation in the Aftermath of the Arab Revolts: Euro-Mediterranean Cultural Cooperation in Local Urban Development in Morocco and Tunisia
- Author:
- Hannah Abdullah
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The so-called “Arab Spring” of 2011 emerged from societies that had been suffering the negative consequences of rapid and unplanned urbanisation for over two decades. The political and socioeconomic discontent that spurred the revolts was closely related to the increase in urban poverty and high levels of inequality that came with these developments. In its response to the Arab revolts, the European Union (EU) only engaged marginally with their urban causes, and above all from a technical rather than political perspective. This focus on technical urban solutions was in line with the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) South and its prioritisation of security and stabilisation concerns over democracy promotion. This article analyses how Euro-Mediterranean cultural cooperation programmes, which form an integral part of the EU’s civil society agenda in the region, was an exception by offering a more political response to the urban discontent that spurred the revolts. The focus is on a programme that supported civil society organizations (CSOs) in Tunisia and Morocco in their effort to assert their “right to the city” by formulating cultural solutions to promote democratic and sustainable local urban development. The article examines how the programme sought to strike a balance between the ENP’s stabilisation and democratisation concerns by fostering collaborative relations between CSOs and public authorities, especially at local level. While the two country case studies are not reflective of EU cultural relations with the region as a whole, the analysis points towards possible ways in which cultural cooperation can engage with the complex relationship between democratic change and urbanisation, and how CSOs can become effective partners in this endeavour. At a more theoretical level, the article examines what role the EU’s strategy for cultural relations has played in its wider civil society agenda in the Southern Neighbourhood, and how urban issues have featured in this overlapping policy space.
- Topic:
- Culture, Social Movement, Urbanization, Democracy, Inequality, Arab Spring, and Urban
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia
414. How Tunisia’s En-Nahda crafts Islamist politics: From programmatic failure to neo-Islamist framing
- Author:
- Wolfgang Mühlberger
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- En-Nahda’s participation in Tunisia’s post-revolutionary politics triggered an adaptive process, refecting a transition from theoretical elaborations to political practice. Switching from clandestine regime opposition to engagement in an emerging pluralistic system also puts to the test the grand narrative that defnes the movement’s rationale and intends to captivate the party’s potential constituency. After fve years in the game, assuming a tainted Islamist label and somehow acknowl- edging programmatic failure, the party’s leadership proposed a neo-Islamist framing, ‘Muslim democracy’, in 2016. Tis semantic operation aims to fuse two schools of thought, a confessional and a political one, with historically distinct governance systems and polit- ical cultures. Hence, despite this twist in rhetoric, a major challenge for En-Nahda remains the rec- onciliation of its utilitarian take on democratic procedures with its deep-rooted reference to Islamic principles. Yet while continuing to stress its readiness for concessions, suppos- edly in order to save Tunisia’s democratic transition, En-Nahda’s political programme, practice and narrative remain fawed, fuid and unconvincing respectively, eroding its credibility and incrementally reducing its mobilisation capacity.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, Democracy, Leadership, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tunisia
415. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:
- Author:
- Emadeddin Badi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
416. From the Ocean to the Gulf: Normalization takes Hold
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Morocco has maintained open channels with Israel for many years, and it values the unique Jewish contribution to its heritage. A new pattern of normalization with Israel now extends from the Atlantic to the Gulf. Morocco’s coordination with the US also is a vital part of the emerging alignment of forces of stability in the region. Israel now should give this breakthrough a firm grounding in policies beneficial to both peoples.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco
417. Egypt’s Support of Normalization is part of the Mediterranean Alignment
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Egypt’s public welcome of the normalization between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan is one of the payoffs emerging from the important Egypt-Israel partnership in the eastern Mediterranean.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
418. Egypt-Jordan-Iraq: Another Middle East Axis in the Making?
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan seek to develop a regional bloc in the geographical center of the Arab world. But all three countries are poor and dependent in for economic largesse on more wealthy partners, so their regional aspirations and strategies will necessarily be limited.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan
419. Unequivocal Diplomatic Support for the EEZ Agreement between Greece and Egypt
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should act to ensure that the Greek-Egyptian EEZ delimitation map is globally endorsed, as opposed to the Turkish-GNA alternative, and work in the American arena to curb Erdogan’s ambitions.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Greece, Egypt, and Mediterranean
420. Is Yemen Turkey’s Next Stop after Libya?
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Ankara’s military interventions in Iraq, Syria and Libya as well as its growing presence in the eastern Mediterranean constitutes a radical change in Turkish foreign policy. Its recent success in Libya demonstrates Ankara’s regional heft. Turkey’s next intervention is probably in Yemen.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Influence, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Libya, and Yemen
421. Washington needs a policy in Libya as Turkey’s presence grows
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A strong Turkish foothold in Libya threatens the free flow of energy resources from the Eastern Mediterranean basin to Europe as planned by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Italy and Israel.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Hegemony, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Libya, North America, and United States of America
422. The Struggle for the Mediterranean: The EMGF Stake in the Libyan Civil War
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Dramatic gains on the battlefield by the forces loyal to the Turkish-backed “Government of National Accord” in western Libya have given Erdogan a victory, which may endanger the future of the eastern Mediterranean. Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel must coordinate their policies in response. A tripartite Greek-Cypriot-Israeli summit should be held urgently to annul the GNA-Libyan EEZ agreement, to present an alternative map of the Mediterranean, and to encourage a robust reaction of the EU. The US must be persuaded to pressure Turkey revoke the EEZ MoU (while still letting Erdogan take pride in saving the GNA from ruin).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
423. The Future of Think-Tanks and Policy Advice: An African Perspective
- Author:
- Ufo Okeke Uzodike
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
- Abstract:
- Globally, humans are at crossroads in the 21st century. We are witnessing momentous developments across a spectrum of severe economic challenges, institutional realignments (Brexit), tumultuous climatic changes, socio-cultural and political conflicts, insecurity, terrorism, extreme inequality, poverty, social exclusions, and gender-based discriminations. In fact, the very existence of nation-states (as currently constituted) appears to be under severe pressure as challenges mount and it becomes increasingly clear that many policymakers are often overwhelmed. These policymakers lack coherent or effective responses to growing expectations and demands from increasingly aware and aggressive constituencies for jobs, salary increases, service delivery, quality of life improvements, etc. This questioning of the legitimacy of policymakers and other constituted authority often belies the objective reality of competing needs and severe budgetary limitations for problem solving. Threatened by the prospect of losing control, governments have become increasingly defensive, short-sighted, conservative, and opportunistic as they grope for answers. They have also resorted to populist postures and the use of sound bites, catchphrases and, often, contempt and cynicism directed at real and perceived opponents, including probing of dissenting thinktanks. In the process, there has been a growing shift away not only from concrete results, transparency and accountability but also, particularly, from meaningful understanding of the partnership and contributive roles of think-tanks for all societies and nations. Thus, think-tanks are being subjected increasingly to various forms of bureaucratic and regulatory restrictions aimed at controlling them and reducing or even stifling their critical voices for evidence-based policies and reforms. The net effect is that government funding sources are increasingly drying up where they existed, or out of the question where they were merely being contemplated. Those realities are despite considerable national growth in government budgets over the past few decades. These challenges have been worsened by the exponential global increase in the number of think-tanks which, expectedly, have created greater competition for available resources.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Communications, Think Tanks, and Financial Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa
424. Responding to Ebola epidemics
- Author:
- Gentiane Lamoure and Helene Juillard
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- Epidemics of infectious diseases are occurring more often, and spreading faster and further across the world than ever before. The emergence of large-scale epidemics (such as Ebola, HIV/AIDS, SARS and, even more recently, COVID-19), the re-emergence of old diseases (such as tuberculosis and haemorrhagic dengue) and the persistence of epidemics of controllable diseases (such as measles, cholera or malaria) have led national governments and global institutions to consider epidemics as some of the most serious major public health emergency threats for the 21st century. Since 2010, both medical and non medical humanitarian actors have been increasingly involved in the response to major outbreaks. This lessons paper aims to inform future humanitarian responses to Ebola, acting as a guide for humanitarian practitioners. Some of its findings – such as the lessons on coordination, funding and economic recovery – may also be transferable to responses to other epidemics. The paper seeks to answer the research question: ‘What lessons for humanitarian practitioners can be drawn from the responses to the Ebola epidemic outbreaks since 2014?’
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Ebola, Crisis Management, Public Health, and Epidemic
- Political Geography:
- Africa
425. Paulo Freire and Popular Struggle in South Africa
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- The ideas of the radical Brazilian educationalist Paulo Freire had a profound impact on popular struggles in South Africa. Initially taken up by Steve Biko and others in the Black Consciousness movement in the early 1970s, Freire’s ideas spread to the trade union movement and to the community movements. Today, Freire’s ideas continue to be used in progressive organisations in South Africa and to guide the work of many people undertaking political education work.
- Topic:
- Education, Politics, Radicalization, Community, and Black Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
426. ‘The Politic of Blood’: Political Repression in South Africa
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- In South Africa, grassroots activists talk of ‘the politic of blood’, referring to ongoing assassinations and other forms of repression. This dossier shows how grassroots activists and trade unionists have been subjected to ongoing repression by the state, beginning under apartheid and continuing under the rule of the African National Congress (ANC), much of which has never been fully acknowledged outside of activist circles.
- Topic:
- Repression, Political Participation, Activim, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
427. The Economic Benefits of Vocational Education and Training in the Kingdom of Eswatini
- Author:
- Gugulethu Mgabhi and Mangaliso Mohammed
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the economic benefits of the Government of Eswatini’s investment to technical vocational education and training (TVET) from 2005 to 2017. TVET Graduates from 12 public TVET Institutions have been tracked to uncover their absorbability in the labour market and, or self-employment. The study finds that the economic return of the Government of Eswatini’s investment to TVET in 2017 is E1,51. This means that for every E1 invested by the Government of Eswatini to TVET, the economy generates E1,51 through the TVET graduates’ activities in self-employment, formal employment, and part-time skills utilisation. With regards to highly demanded courses amongst the graduates, ccomputer studies have been found to be highly demanded at 20.9%, while agriculture is lowly demanded at 6.3%. The study finds that 56.6% of the graduates are absorbed in formal employment, while 13.7% are engaged in self-employment, meaning that 29.9% are part of the 32.4% unemployed persons in the country. However, the level of unemployment is still high, 43.3%. Graduates who were not economically active before enrolling at the TVET colleges have been found to be formally employed, 35%, 14% are self-employed, 2.5% are both formally and self-employed, while 48.5% are unemployed. A majority (58.5%) of employed graduates are from Gwamile VOCTIM, while self-employment is high amongst graduates from Big Bend Rural Education Centre, 44.4%. Unemployment has been found to be very high among graduates from Ekululameni, 100%. The study recommends that the Government of Eswatini should consider promoting self-employment amongst graduates. This could be done through establishing links with financing agencies to increase the rate of self-employment and reduce unemployment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, Governance, Training, Vocational Training, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Eswatini
428. Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa
- Author:
- Wendy Kessman and Tahila Pimental
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Other Foundation
- Abstract:
- The role that families play in advocating for the human rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) people in communities in southern Africa has not received as much attention as it deserves. Our new publication is called Roots, because of the powerful comments from some of the parents of LGBTI people that their LGBTI children are “from the same tree branch” as them, and because families enable LGBTI people to find an authentic “sense of belonging that is true to their roots.” The paper Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa, reports on the experiences of LGBTI people and their families in Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. It highlights the role that the involvement of parents and families can play in the advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in our region including suggestions on ways to empower families to promote LGBTI acceptance in their homes, communities, and countries. For LGBTI people, the family can be the first place of rejection and damaging homophobia, transphobia and interphobia. Yet families can also be the best form of love and support that an LGBTI person can receive. Even initially hostile family members can grow to accept their LGBTI children, grandchildren and siblings. It may take time, emotional labour, vulnerability and courage for parents and family to accept their LGBTI child, however once parents and the family accept a LGBTI child, wanting the state to do the same is a natural next step.
- Topic:
- Discrimination, LGBT+, Family, Parenting, Homophobia, Transphobia, and Interphobia
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, and Botswana
429. The Implication of Teenage Pregnancies in Eswatini: A Trend and Spatial Analysis
- Author:
- N. Dlamini
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the extent of teenage pregnancy in Eswatini with a focus on public schools in the constituencies and region. In addition, the study examines which regions are affected by teenage pregnancies and adopts a Generalised Ordered Logit Model to determine the likelihood of teenage pregnancies across the regions in Eswatini. The study locates the Hhohho and Manzini regions as high teenage pregnancy areas and further identifies mothers in Lubombo and Shiselweni as more vulnerable to repeat births. Not surprisingly, the study finds that teenage pregnancies occur in Eswatini’s poverty-stricken areas - where there are low economic activities and the households are experiencing low incomes. These are places such as Madlangempisi, Ngwempisi, Sigwe, and Lomahasha. Teenage pregnancies occur when learners are idle during school holidays. The government is advised to consider intensifying policies and programmes geared towards reducing or eradicating teenage pregnancies in Eswatini. Such policies should deliberately target rural areas and focus on creating employment opportunities to relieve households from low incomes.
- Topic:
- Education, Vulnerability, Dropout Prevention, and Pregnancy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Eswatini
430. Financial Inclusion in Eswatini: What is Driving the Adoption of Mobile Money?
- Author:
- T. Magongo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
- Abstract:
- Mobile money has gained increasing importance and prominence in many sub-Saharan African countries and as a result, it is seen as a possible key to fast-tracking financial inclusion in developing countries including Eswatini. Although financial inclusion rates have improved considerably in Eswatini, the adoption of mobile money is still relatively low in the country compared to other countries in subSaharan Africa, yet a majority of the population knows about the technology. This study investigates the driving factors of mobile money adoption in Eswatini using a logit and probit analysis based on the 2014 FinScope Financial Access and Consumer Survey. Findings reveal that the likelihood of using mobile money increases with increasing levels of financial literacy, education, sending and receiving remittances using mobile money, usage of informal financial products, living in an urban area, and adjusting income during times of shock. Results suggest opportunities for financial inclusiveness such as designing and implementation of financial literacy education and money management programs, purposely targeting the underserved population (rural), as well as informal financial product usage formalization.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Finance, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Eswatini
431. Financing Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Botswana Through The Capital Market
- Author:
- Kelesego Mmolainyane
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- In her quest to further graduate to the high-income status, Botswana seeks to invest more in infrastructure development for both productive and social use. An efficient and effective infrastructure provision is fundamental to excellent public service delivery and access. Sadly, Botswana, like many other world economies, has a challenge of having an infrastructure financing gap. One of the innovative ways to fill this gap is through public private partnerships (PPPs) with the capital market that has excess liquidity. Infrastructure PPPs are complex and capital intensive projects that require project finance experts to advise parties involved regarding returns and risks associated with each project. Various project-financing models can be designed to suit project specifications and they cannot be over-generalised for all PPP projects. Nevertheless, given the tight fiscal space, Botswana now, more than ever, should consider issuing PPP bonds and applying user changes model to finance economic PPP infrastructure for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
- Topic:
- Markets, Infrastructure, Finance, Capital, and Public-Private Partnership
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
432. How Non-Diamond Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Volatility in Botswana
- Author:
- Johanne Motsatsi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on non-diamond exports in Botswana using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model used quarterly data for the period 1995-2018, to estimate both the long and short run dynamics. The estimated results show that real GDP in the non-diamond sector, GDP growth of OECD countries, transport investment and water & electricity investment have a positive impact on non-diamond exports. While the lending interest rate, inflation differentials, exchange rate volatility and misalignment impact non-diamond exports negatively. The findings indicate that the coefficients with respect to the exchange rate volatility in both models are relatively low, suggesting that it has not had harmful impacts on non-diamond exports. This reflects the emphasis given to a stable and competitive exchange rate that will attract increased foreign demand which, as a result, could lead to export diversification. However, Botswana’s export structure is still undiversified, despite efforts made to diversify the sector. To achieve the national objectives of sustainable export and economic diversification, the policy should continue encouraging a stable and competitive exchange rate. Other policies intended to boost export growth should focus on: expanding the production base of the non-diamond sector, committing more investment in the transport sector, and improving water & electricity infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, Exports, and Diamonds
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
433. Ordinary Shareholders’ Rights Protection in Botswana
- Author:
- Ratang Sedimo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- This study seeks to examine institutional frameworks that exist in Botswana to protect the rights of ordinary shareholders. There is no literature on the subject matter in the context of Botswana; hence this study attempts to fill in the literature gap. The study uses a variety of data collection methods, such as semi-structured interviews, the Choppies case study and lessons learnt from other jurisdictions. Findings reveal that ordinary shareholders’ rights protection involves the use of institutional frameworks. In Botswana, existing frameworks are not adequate to protect ordinary shareholders’ rights. Furthermore, the study shows that ordinary shareholders in Botswana are mainly exposed to risks of losing their investments, partially or entirely, in case of non-compliance to regulatory requirements as shown by the reduction in Choppies’ stock price from P1.20 to P0.40 between years 2012 and 2018. The study suggests that the existing institutional frameworks should be reviewed to ensure adequate protection of ordinary shareholders’ rights.
- Topic:
- Economy, Institutions, and Shareholder Value
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
434. Key Drivers of Industrial Growth A Case Study of Botswana’s Manufacturing Sector
- Author:
- Goitseone Khanie
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- The paper examines the key determinants of industrial growth in Botswana, using manufacturing sector value added as the proxy for industrial growth. It employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach using annual time series data for the period 1983 to 2015. Empirical results show that industrial growth is driven by financial sector development, human capital development, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Specifically, domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP and secondary school enrolment ratio are found to be significantly related to manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP both in the long run and short run. While the relationship is limited to long run for total trade to GDP, it only exits in the short run for FDI net inflows. The study therefore recommends that policy makers should design and ensure proper implementation of financial sector development strategies that can help ease access to credit for manufacturing enterprises in the country. There is also a need for a holistic approach in the design and implementation of innovation and human resource development policies in order to provide a conducive environment for skills acquisition, innovation and technological advancements in the manufacturing sector. Trade policies and export promotion strategies should heighten productivity and value addition in the manufacturing sector, so as to make local firms internationally competitive. Finally, with regards to FDI, the Government of Botswana should create an environment that could entice multinationals to invest in the local manufacturing industry. This, however, should be coupled with protectionist policies to avoid crowding out local manufacturers and exposing them to foreign competition.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Manufacturing, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
435. Whistleblowing in Botswana’s Construction Industry: A Public and Private Sector Perspective
- Author:
- Marumo Omotoye
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- The construction industry (CI) is considered one of the most corrupt both internationally and regionally. Therefore, this study examined the views and attitudes of professionals in Botswana’s CI towards the role whistleblowing (or protected disclosure) can play in curbing corruption in the sector. A convergent mixed methods approach was adopted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from the construction industry. Furthermore, a self-administered survey was utilised to collect quantitative data from 117 construction firms. Data revealed that there was little awareness of whistleblowing legislation. Fear of retaliation or punishment and job loss, and a lack of education on whistleblowing were identified as some of the most substantial barriers to effective whistleblowing in the industry. From a public policy perspective, it is recommended that an emphasis be placed on improving levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in the construction sector. In addition, there should be consideration to amend the Whistleblowing Act 2016 to include construction industry regulators, the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board, and private media amongst the list of institutions authorised to receive reports of impropriety in order to extend the scope of legal protection to whistleblowers in the sector. Recommendations for further research are provided.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Public Sector, Private Sector, Whistle Blowing, and Construction
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
436. Can Transparency and Accountability Programs Improve Health? Experimental Evidence from Indonesia and Tanzania
- Author:
- Jean Arkedis, Jessica Creighton, Archon Fung, Stephen Kosack, Dan Levy, and Courtney Tolmie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- We assess the impact of a transparency and accountability program designed to improve maternal and newborn health (MNH) outcomes in Indonesia and Tanzania. Co-designed with local partner organizations to be community-led and non-prescriptive, the program sought to encourage community participation to address local barriers in access to high quality care for pregnant women and infants. We evaluate the impact of this program through randomized controlled trials (RCTs), involving 100 treatment and 100 control communities in each country. We find that on average, this program did not have a statistically significant impact on the use or content of maternal and newborn health services, nor the sense of civic efficacy or civic participation among recent mothers in the communities who were offered it. These findings hold in both countries and in a set of prespecified subgroups. To identify reasons for the lack of impacts, we use a mixed-method approach combining interviews, observations, surveys, focus groups, and ethnographic studies that together provide an in-depth assessment of the complex causal paths linking participation in the program to improvements in MNH outcomes. Although participation in program meetings was substantial and sustained in most communities, and most attempted at least some of what they had planned, only a minority achieved tangible improvements and fewer still saw more than one such success. Our assessment is that the main explanation for the lack of impact is that few communities were able to traverse the complex causal paths from planning actions to accomplishing tangible improvements in their access to quality health care.
- Topic:
- Health, Health Care Policy, Children, and Randomized Controlled Trials
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Southeast Asia
437. Who Wins in the World Economy and English Football?
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Globalization has fed significant economic gains across the world. The gains lead some policymakers in developing countries to believe in the potential of ‘catch up’—where they leverage the gains of an open world economy to foster rapid progress and compete with more developed nations. This belief is particularly evident in countries like Rwanda, where policymakers aspire to turn the country into ‘Africa’s Singapore’. This paper asks if such aspiration is realistic: Do developing countries really gain enough from globalization to catch up to more developed countries? The paper examines the world economy as a league in which countries compete for winnings (manifest in higher income and production). Wealthier countries are in the top tiers of this league and poorer countries are in the lower tiers. The paper asks if gains from the last generation of growth have been distributed in such a way to foster ‘catch up’ by lower tier countries, and if we see these countries ‘catching up’ by moving into higher tiers. This analysis of the world economy is compared with a study of English football, where over 90 clubs play in an multi-tier league system. Prominent examples of ‘catch up’ in this system include Leicester City’s rise from the third tier in 2008 to become first tier champion in 2015. The paper asks if such ‘catch up’ is common in English football, given the way winnings are distributed, and if ‘catch up’ is more common in this context than in the world economy more generally.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Developing World, Global Political Economy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Rwanda
438. ‘She told me that life here is so easy’: Urban migration of Acholi youth, Uganda
- Author:
- Elizabeth Stites, Teddy Atim, and Ayee Flora Tracy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- This working paper presents findings on the migration of youth (aged 15–35) from Acholi, Uganda to the urban areas of Gulu and Pabbo in northern Uganda, and to the Acholi Quarter neighborhood in Kampala. Key findings include: Acholi youth migrate into urban areas for a diverse range of reasons; top among these are the lack of economic opportunities in rural areas, inadequate land access, and family disputes. Female migrants in particular also cited being pushed off land and physical and sexual abuse as reasons for migrating, in addition to economic reasons. Many migrants maintain strong economic, livelihood, social, and emotional ties to their rural places of origin, with split-household models being extremely common. Those who did not maintain such ties—mostly women— were among the most vulnerable. The findings of this report have important implications for national and international programming and interventions, especially given the expanding role urbanization plays in Uganda and across the developing world. The provision of urban services, especially education, must meet the needs of the continuing influx of migrants, many of whom prioritize education. Decision making about migration involves not only concerns for the migrant, but also their family, whether or not family members also move.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Immigration, Children, Youth, and Urban
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
439. The state of the war-wounded in northern Uganda
- Author:
- Dyan Mazurana, Anastasia Marshak, and Teddy Atim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Few large-scale, structured surveys have been conducted on the prevalence of alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity committed by warring parties against civilians and how this relates to disability. Using data from a panel survey carried out in 2013, 2015, and 2018 that is representative of all of Acholi and Lango sub-regions in northern Uganda, this working paper reports the prevalence of alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity for individuals and households; their association with disability; and the resulting effects over time on people’s lives in terms of food security, wealth, access to basic services, and healthcare. The study contributes to an understanding of people who have experienced alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity that affect them physically and psychologically; the relationship between experience of these alleged crimes and their experience of disability; the effects of these crimes on their wealth, food security, and access to livelihood and social protection services; the effects of these crimes on their access to basic and therapeutic healthcare; and a better understanding of the key obstacles faced by victims of these alleged crimes when they are unable to receive basic and therapeutic healthcare.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, War, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
440. From the EMS to the EMU and...to China
- Author:
- Joseph Halevi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a process that separated monetary from fiscal policies by giving priority to the centralization of the former. Instead of repeating the well known critiques levelled against the EMU – for which readers are referred to the unsurpassed treatment by Stiglitz, the essay highlights the splintering of Europe in the way in which it has unfolded during the 1990s and in the first decade of the present millennium. In particular the early economic and political origins of the terminal crisis of Italy are located between the late 1980s and the 1990s. France is shown to belong increasingly to the so-called European periphery by virtue of a weakening industrial structure and persistent balance of payments deficits. The paper argues that France regains its central role by political means and through its weight as an active nuclear military power centered on maintaining its imperial interests and posture especially in Africa. The first decade of the present millennium is portrayed as the period in which a distinct German economic area had been formed in the midst of Europe with a strong drive to the east with an increasingly powerful gravitational pull towards the People’s Republic of China.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Political Economy, History, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, Asia, Germany, and Global Focus
441. State Capacity and Demand for Identity: Evidence from Political Instability in Mali
- Author:
- Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- We demonstrate that civil conflict erodes self-identification with a nation-state even among non- rebellious ethnic groups in non-conflict areas. We perform a difference-in-difference estimation using Afrobarometer data. Using the onset of Tuareg-led insurgency in Mali caused by the demise of the Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi as an exogenous shock to state capacity, we find that residents living closer to the border with the conflict zone experienced a larger decrease in national identification. The effect was greater on people who were more exposed to local media. We hypothesize about the mechanism and show that civil conflict erodes national identity through the peoples’ perception of a state weakness.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, State Formation, State Actors, State, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and Mali
442. China and the World Bank: How Contrasting Development Approaches affect the Stability of African States
- Author:
- Kai Gehring, Lennart C. Kaplan, and Melvin H.L. Wong
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- China’s development model challenges the approaches of traditional Western donors like the World Bank. We argue that both aim at stability, but differ in the norms propagated to achieve that. Using fixed effects and IV estimations, we analyze a broad range of subnational stability measures in Africa. Aid by both the WB and China does not increase outright conflict nor any type of citizen protest, on average. Both even reduce outright conflict by governments against civilians. Still, Chinese aid is associated with more government repression and an increased acceptance of authoritarian norms, while WB projects strengthen democratic values.
- Topic:
- Development, International Political Economy, Political Economy, World Bank, and Developing World
- Political Geography:
- Africa and China
443. Algeria: Inventing New Political Rules
- Author:
- Rachid Tlemçani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- As of 22 February 2019, a new chapter of Algeria’s history is being written, one which will establish a new relationship between Algerian citizens and their state. On that day, against all odds, tens of thousands of Algerians, regardless of gender, age, social or professional background, converged on cities and villages to voice their rejection of a fifth term for Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the forthcoming presidential elections. To the call of General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, the army’s chief of staff, to remove President Bouteflika as per Article 102 of the Constitution, and Bouteflika’s subsequent resignation on 2 April, Algerians responded with an even stronger mobilization and their own call, “Système, dégage!”
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Mediterranean, and Algeris
444. To Shoot or to Defect? Military Responses to the Arab Uprisings
- Author:
- Nael Shama
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
- Abstract:
- By examining the events of the Arab uprisings, this paper looks into the nature and dynamics of armies’ responses to popular uprisings. It argues that the outcome of the massive, regime-threatening Arab revolts in 2011 can be assessed by how a military responded to protests: did the army shoot protesters, did it stay idle, or did it largely defect? In light of the rich literature available on the historical experience of the “Arab Spring,” this paper shows that an army’s response to end popular uprisings in authoritarian regimes is determined by several key factors: the military’s level of institutionalization; its relationship to the regime; the degree of the regime’s legitimacy; the amount of international aid it receives; the prospects of foreign intervention; and, finally, the strength of the army’s bond with society and its perception of its own role within society. Additionally, there is a factor often overlooked by scholars; namely, how the military assesses a regime’s capacity to solve the crisis in order to triumph. The paper draws on evidence from the six cases of the 2011 Arab Spring—Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, and Tunisia—to illustrate the dynamics of troop loyalty or defection.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
445. Norm and Dissidence: Egyptian Shiʿa between Security Approaches and Geopolitical Stakes
- Author:
- Stéphane Valter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
- Abstract:
- This paper presents a study of Egyptian Shiʿism by providing historical context as well as a focus on actual or current issues. The study includes a historical overview of local Shiʿism (Fatimid period, late nineteenth century, 1940s–1960s, and contemporary period); Shiʿi institutions and personalities; the situation following Egypt’s 2011 revolution; the hectic one-year government of the Muslim Brotherhood (2012–2013); President al-Sisi’s authoritarian takeover; and, finally, an exploration of the current geopolitical stakes, focusing mainly on the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran over religious hegemony.
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, and Shia
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
446. Tunisia and Its Relations with Israel Following the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Adina Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The Israeli discourse surrounding regional cooperation tends to focus primarily on the Gulf States and on security issues; as such, it often overlooks more moderate and pro-Western countries in the region, and alternative cooperation tracks that are more along civil and cultural lines. Israel should pay more attention to Tunisia, which constitutes an important geographical, historical, and political crossroads along the Mediterranean coast; which provides insight into democratization processes; which is home to an ancient Jewish community; and which may serve as either an enabling or inhibiting factor for the realization of Israel’s interests in Africa. Despite the current political obstacles to relations between the two countries, there exists a precedent of positive relations and cooperation between Israel and Tunisia, and there is a possibility of expanding this cooperation in the future. Meanwhile, positive interpersonal, cultural, and civil relations should be advanced. These will assist future political relations, once changes occur in regional politics and progress is made in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Bilateral Relations, Arab Spring, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, North Africa, and Tunisia
447. Traditional authority and state legitimacy: Evidence from Namibia
- Author:
- Vladimir Chlouba
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Do African traditional leaders weaken state legitimacy at the local level? Past scholarship raises the possibility that unelected chiefs might undermine trust in national-level institutions. Relying on an original map of areas governed by chiefs and survey data from Namibia, this study examines whether respondents governed by traditional leaders are less likely to trust state institutions. I find that compared to individuals not living under traditional authority, chiefdom residents are more likely to trust government institutions. To partially alleviate the concern that chiefdom residence is endogenous to trust in national-level institutions, I use a genetic matching strategy to compare relatively similar individuals. I further find that the association between chiefdom residence and trust in state institutions is considerably weaker and less statistically significant for individuals who do not share ethnicity with their chief. This evidence suggests that traditional leaders’ ability to complement state institutions at the local level is compromised by ethnic diversity.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, Leadership, Fragile States, Emerging States, Legitimacy, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Namibia
448. Is there an anti-politics of electricity? Access to the grid and reduced political participation in Africa
- Author:
- Jennifer N. Brass, Kirk Harris, and Lauren M. MacLean
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Almost all African states face pressure to deliver improved public services to their citizens. In both emerging democracies and persistent authoritarian regimes, politics profoundly shapes how states distribute public goods such as roads, schools, health clinics, and electricity access (Briggs, 2014; Dixit & Londregan, 1996; Harding & Stasavage, 2014; Kramon & Posner, 2013; Min, 2015; Weingast, Shepsle, & Johnsen, 1981). But in addition to questions of how politics shapes distributive outcomes, scholars have recently turned to a new question: How does variation in public service provision subsequently shape political participation (Bodea & LeBas, 2016; Harding, 2015)? Here, the findings are less clear. Where some authors find that the receipt of public service provision stimulates participation (Bleck, 2015; Wantchekon, Klašnja, & Novta, 2015), others caution that service provision may actually undermine engagement or have no effect (Croke, Grossman, Larreguy, & Marshall, 2015; Kam & Palmer, 2008; Mattes & Mughogho, 2009). Most of this literature has focused on the political effects of the delivery of social welfare services, especially education. Meanwhile, the political effects of electricity provision have been largely overlooked. Electricity provision is important for political outcomes for several reasons. Historically, in some African countries, electricity provision was tightly linked to the independence struggle and to rights of citizenship (MacLean, Gore, Brass, & Baldwin, 2016). Yet despite these expectations, African countries continue to have the lowest rates of electrification in the world. Only about one-third of Africans have access to electricity (International Energy Agency, 2014), and only two-thirds live in a community with any grid access (Oyuke, Penar, & Howard, 2016), and these rates are much lower in rural areas in most countries (Leo, Morello, & Ramachandran, 2015).
- Topic:
- Education, Democracy, Public Policy, Public Sector, Electricity, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Africa
449. The Foreign Military Presence in the Horn of Africa Region
- Author:
- Neil J. Melvin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The Horn of Africa is undergoing far-reaching changes in its external security environment. A wide variety of international security actors—from Europe, the United States, the Middle East, the Gulf and Asia—are currently operating in the region. As a result, the Horn of Africa has experienced a proliferation of foreign military bases and a build-up of naval forces. The external militarization of the Horn poses major questions for the future security and stability of the region. This SIPRI Background Paper is the first of three papers devoted to the new external security politics of the Horn of Africa. The paper maps the growth of foreign military forces in and around the Horn over the past two decades. The other two papers in this series are ‘The New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, April 2019) and ‘Managing the New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Policy Brief, April 2019).
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa
450. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Somalia
- Author:
- Karolina Eklöw and Florian Krampe
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Climate-related security risks are transforming the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts take place. This policy paper offers a glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the time of climate change by providing an in-depth assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). Climate-related change in Somalia has reduced livelihood options and caused migration. It has also left significant parts of the population in a vulnerable condition. These climate-related security risks contribute to grievances and increase inequality and fragility, which in turn pose challenges to the implementation of UNSOM’s mandate. The impacts of climate change have hindered UNSOM in its work to provide peace and security in Somalia and in its efforts to establish functioning governance and judicial systems. UNSOM has responded to the growing impact of climate-related change. It has learned lessons from previous failed responses—notably the 2011 drought—and has created innovative initiatives that have been effective. While there is still room for improvement, UNSOM’s new initiatives may help to deliver a set of responses that meet the short-term need for a rapid humanitarian response and the long-term objective of achieving a sustainable and resilient society. The challenges faced by UNSOM and its responses to them have wider implications. They suggest that there is a need for synergetic policy responses that can turn the responses to climate-related security risks into opportunities for UN efforts to sustain peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Migration, Governance, Risk, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
451. The Socio-economic Impact of Anti-vehicle Mines in Angola
- Author:
- Yeonju Jung
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The humanitarian and developmental impact of anti-vehicle mines (AVMs) is particularly relevant in immediate post-conflict reconstruction efforts. However, the comprehensive analysis of how AVMs hamper the socio-economic and sustainable development outlook of communities in the medium and long term has often been overlooked. This pilot study depicts the impact of AVM contamination on socio-economic development and the benefits of AVM clearance on sustainable development. To do so, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) serve as a framework to measure the impact of AVM clearance on agriculture, infrastructure, and access to social services.
- Topic:
- Development, Conflict, Peace, and Landmines
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Angola
452. he Democratic Republic of Congo: The Great Electoral Robbery (and how and why Kabila got away with it)
- Author:
- Kris Berwouts and Filip Reyntjens
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Although the election of Félix Tshisekedi as president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was hailed as ‘the first peaceful transition since independence’, the election was anything but a democratic exercise. Indeed, Martin Fayulu was the real winner, not Tshisekedi. Suspected electoral fraud at the legislative elections has returned a parliament in which Kabila’s Common Front for Congo coalition (Front commun pour le Congo – FCC) holds a large majority. This will allow Kabila to keep real power in most domains of government. By endorsing this outcome in the knowledge that it was fraudulently obtained, the West and Africa have robbed the Congolese people of their choice.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Rigged Elections, and State Abuse
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo
453. Returnees in the Maghreb: Comparing Policies on Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia
- Author:
- Thomas Renard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Syria and Iraq has mobilised an unprecedented number of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs). More than 50,000 individuals travelled to the Levant to join jihadi groups. While fighters have flocked from virtually every corner of the world, a significant contingent came from North Africa. This has created an unprecedented challenge for individual countries, as well as for the broader Maghreb and Mediter- ranean regions. The ‘Caliphate’ has now been defeated with the loss of its remaining territories. While many people were killed, thousands of fighters and family members are either in detention in Syria or in Iraq – or still on the run. Authorities worldwide are contem- plating – or should be contemplating – the possible return of these fighters in the short to medium term and how to deal with them. In fact, more than a thousand North African fighters have already returned home since 2012. Following this unprecedented number of jihadi volunteers, countries must now handle an unprecedented number of jihadi veterans who present a multi-faceted security and societal challenge from prosecution to detention and rehabilitation. Arguably, whether they return or not, some of these fighters are likely to have a lasting effect on the global jihadi movement and on local dynamics in their country of origin. As highlighted in this report, history is a reminder that even small numbers of veteran fighters can have a significant impact on local, regional and global security. There has been a growing amount of research into (returning) foreign fighters recently.1 This research was needed to better understand the phenomenon, either in general terms or at a country-specific level. Most of this research focused on departures rather than returns, and it focused often more on the individual dynamics and motivations rather than on governments’ debates and responses. Yet, as most governments still grapple with returnees, it is important to look into governments’ responses, with a view to opening a discussion and possibly making some recom- mendations. In this report, we have therefore decided to focus on governments’ responses to the issue of returning foreign fighters in North Africa, in light of the unprecedented regional mobilisation. Tunisia, notably, has often been described as the largest provider of foreign fighters to the Levant, or certainly one of its top purveyors. Egypt and Morocco have also seen a significant mobilisation for jihad, justifying their inclu- sion in our study. We offer a comparative analysis of the situation in these three North African countries: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Such an approach, using similar guidelines for all contributing authors, allows for interesting comparisons between the circum- stances that led to the departure of fighters and the responses to dealing with their return. Contributors were asked to look into domestic perceptions and debates related to the threat from returnees, and the specific policies developed to handle them. They were also asked to compare current perceptions and responses with previous jihadi mobilisations.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia
454. Belgian Special Forces in the Sahel: A Minimal Footprint with Maximal Output?
- Author:
- Nina Wilen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- In a shifting geopolitical context, the Belgian Defence has intensified its presence in the Sahel region and developed a new strategic military collaboration with Niger through Operation New Nero. This policy brief critically examines the strategy and identifies three challenges for the future of the operation: Niger’s democratic development, the asymmetry between the Western Partner Nation’s capabilities, and diverging agendas within the Belgian Defence. To counter these challenges, it is suggested that the minimalist approach and the social networks which enable horizontal collaboration among partners are maintained, while new civil-military opportunities are explored. On a broader level, it is recommended that Belgium aligns its political and military agendas to achieve long- term strategies geopolitical regions of importance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Belgium, Sahel, and Niger
455. Security Forces’ Strategies of Resistance to Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Valerie Arnould
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Security forces are key actors in transitional justice, with the ability to hamper or upend the process. While concerns have often centred on their possible violent responses to transitional justice, security forces are generally more likely to mobilise more discrete forms of resistance. Drawing on transitional justice experiences in Brazil, Chile, Sierra Leone and Uganda this policy brief identifies six types of resistance strategies used by security forces: threatening violence, obstructionism, de-legitimation, strategic cooperation, disengagement and appropriation. It also examines which contextual factors may influence which strategies the security forces are more likely to pursue.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Violence, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Brazil, South America, Sierra Leone, and Chile
456. Burundi on the Brink Again? Identifying Risks Before the 2020 elections
- Author:
- Nina Wilen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- In less than a year Burundi will hold its first elections since the 2015 political crisis was triggered by the president’s bid for a third term. Almost five years after the start of the crisis, Burundi is still stuck in a political impasse with strong authoritarian undertones and with little hope of conducting free and fair elections. This policy brief identifies four developments which could turn the current situation into a high- intensity violent crisis: forced refugee return; repression of the opposition; implosion of the ruling party CNDD-FDD and the threat of an Ebola outbreak. Given the tense climate and the limited space available to foreign actors, it is suggested that external actors scale down expectations for democratic elections. Instead, focus should be on keeping options open to provide humanitarian assistance in the event of a large-scale outbreak of violence or Ebola, while maintaining political pressure for democratic space.
- Topic:
- Elections, Ebola, Refugees, Election watch, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burundi
457. Leveraging the BRI for Africa’s Industrialisation and Intra-Trade (Opportunities for the AfCFTA)
- Author:
- Mwanda Phiri and Nakubyana Mungomba
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Two initiatives have recently gained prominence, one on the global stage and the other in Africa: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The former initiative’s primary aim is to build economic infrastructure in the transport, energy and telecommunications sectors in the countries through which the BRI will pass, which has come to include several African countries. Concurrently, the objective of the AfCFTA is to deepen economic integration amongst African states by creating a unified market for goods and services and in the process, propel Africa’s industrialisation and structural transformation. Although seemingly independent, these initiatives converge and present two economic diplomacy instruments that can be leveraged to address Africa’s industrialisation challenge and the bottlenecks to intra-African trade for inclusive and sustainable development. On the back of secondary data sources, this paper explores how the BRI can be leveraged to advance the objectives of the AfCFTA by addressing the financing, infrastructure and productive capacity challenges constraining Africa’s industrialisation and intra-trade
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Free Trade, and Industrialization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
458. A Review of Pillar I & II of Zambia’s Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme 2017-2019
- Author:
- Florence Banda-Muleya, Shebo Nalishebo, Mbewe Kalikeka, Nakubyana Mungomba, Ignatius Masilokwa, and Caesar Cheelo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- The economic crisis of 2015 destabilised Zambia’s economic performance. The depreciation of the Kwacha and its pass-through effects led to inflation of as high as 22% and growth, at 2.9%, was far below the 5% target. The overall Budget deviation was 15% of Parliamentary appropriations in 2015, disrupting planned activities and attainment of set macroeconomic objectives. There were huge variations between what the consequent national Budgets committed to do and what they actually did. To fix this and nudge the country back towards high sustained economic growth, the Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme (ESGP) was crafted in 2017. The five-pillar plan aimed to ensure prudent fiscal management by providing a system of accountability and a standard against which results could be measured, among other things. The aim of this paper is to review the ESGP, particularly, its performance in 2018. The paper sets out to understand how well Zambia faired in implementing the ESGP as well as to highlight the broader fiscal trends recently. It ultimately seeks to make recommendations about how Zambia can revive its path to economic stability and growth. The paper focuses tightly on the first two pillars of the ESGP, i.e. (i) restoring budget credibility; and (ii) enhancing domestic resource mobilisation and refocusing public expenditure. The remaining three pillars are slated to be reviewed in the second half of 2019.
- Topic:
- Budget, Finance, Economic Growth, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
459. In Further Pursuit of an IMF-Programme: Possible Pathways for Zambia and Lessons for Africa
- Author:
- Caesar Cheelo and Nakubyana Mungomba
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Since 2015, Zambia’s real GDP growth has declined markedly, its local currency has depreciated notably with episodes of serious volatility, and the risks of fiscal and debt distress have mounted. As the country searches for solutions, one viable international economic diplomacy instrument might be the IMF. Since its creation in 1945, the IMF has fostered global monetary cooperation, secured financial stability, international trade, high employment, sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction, mainly through: lending, surveillance and capacity building. Zambia has been pursuing an IMF-supported economic programme since about 2016, but with dismal success. In contrast, other economies like Ghana and Zimbabwe appear to be making headway. Key questions emerge from the foregoing: what does the evidence say about the relevance and significance of an IMF-supported programme for Zambia? Why has the country’s recent quest for an IMF deal failed? Does Zambia have feasible pathways to an IMF deal? This paper tackles these issues using simply descriptive statistical analysis, stylized facts and a political economy lens. We highlight a number of specific pathways that Zambia could follow in further pursuit of an IMF-support programme.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, GDP, Economy, Macroeconomics, Currency, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
460. Towards 2022: Options for paying back Zambia's Eurobond Debt
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka, Shebo Nalishebo, and Florence Banda-Muleya
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- On 20th September 2022, Zambia’s first Eurobond will mature. The Government will be required to settle its principal payment amounting to US$750 million in full. Twenty months later in April 2024, the Government will have to settle the second Eurobond worth US$1 billion. The third US$1.25 billion Eurobond will be paid back in three instalments in July of 2025, 2026 and 2027. With less than three years before the first Eurobond matures, there is no clear indication of how and where the money to pay back these Eurobonds is going to come from. This paper considers several options that will mitigate the possibility of a default when the principal payments on the Eurobonds are due. The lack of a payment strategy has made the bondholders jittery about whether they will get their money back. Bondholders have communicated their consternations by dumping the Zambian bonds which are perceived to be risky. With increasing yield rates on the three Eurobonds, of about 17% by end-September 2019, the market seems to have already priced in a default – only nations already in default, such as Venezuela, have yields as high as Zambia’s1. The yield rate is the barometer used to assess the risk inherent in the bond. In general, higher yields mean the bond has higher risk and corresponds to a decline in the value of the bond. There have been efforts made towards establishing a Eurobond Redemption Strategy, but its contents are yet to be publicised. Also, the failure to release the 2020-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework by September 2019, and the absence of the 2020-2022 Medium Term Debt Strategy to show a clear borrowing plan have added to the market apprehension. By just about every measure, the Zambian economic fundamentals are fragile. Growth is ailing, prompting the authorities to revise their growth projection targets from 4% to 2% in 2019. Agriculture has been in recession for several quarters now. The 2019 mining fiscal regime that has significantly raised the tax burden on mining companies to unsustainable and uncompetitive levels, coupled with reduced ore grades, has resulted in 8.4% reduction in mining value added in the second quarter of 2019. The electricity load management which commenced in mid-2019 continues to have adverse economy-wide effects. This has implications on revenue targets. Tax revenues in September 2019 were 17% lower than projected, a trend likely to continue at least up to the end of the year. Further, the recent weakness of the Kwacha is not helping either as it has increased the cost of external borrowing and debt servicing, making it prohibitively more expensive to service foreign-currency denominated loans, which include the Eurobonds.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, Public Debt, and Eurobonds
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
461. Learning Equity Requires More than Equality: Learning Goals and Achievement Gaps between the Rich and the Poor in Five Developing Countries
- Author:
- Maryam Akmal and Lant Pritchett
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for education include the goal that “all youth...achieve literacy and numeracy” (Target 4.6). Achieving some absolute standard of learning for all children is a key element of global equity in education. Using the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) data from India and Pakistan, and Uwezo data from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that test all children of given ages, whether in school or not, on simple measures of learning in math, reading (local language), and English, we quantify the role of achieving equality between the richest 20% and the poorest 40% in terms of grade attainment and learning achievement toward accomplishing the global equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy for all children. First, excluding Kenya, equalizing grade attainment between children from rich and poor households would only close between 8% (India) and 25% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 8% (Uganda) and 28% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal literacy. Second, children from the poorest 40% of households tend to have lower performance in literacy and numeracy at each grade. If such children had the learning profiles of children from rich households, we would close between 16% (Pakistan and Uganda) and 34% (India) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 13% (Uganda) and 44% (India) of the gap to universal literacy. This shows that the “hidden exclusion” (WDR, 2018) of lower learning at the same grade levels—a gap that emerges in the earliest grades—is a substantial and often larger part of the equity gap compared to the more widely documented gaps in enrollment and grade attainment. Third, even with complete equality in grade attainment and learning achievement, children from poor households would be far from the equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy, as even children from the richest 20% of households are far from universal mastery of basic reading and math by ages 12-13. Achieving universal literacy and numeracy to accomplish even a minimal standard of global absolute equity will require more than just closing the rich-poor learning gap, it will take progress in learning for all.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Sustainable Development Goals, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, India, Asia, and Tanzania
462. Why “Leapfrogging” in Frontier Markets Isn’t Working
- Author:
- Bright Simons
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Just before the yuletide of 2018, I arrived in my native Ghana after one of my long spells away. I flipped out my phone, opened Uber, and tried to flag a ride from inside the shiny new terminal of Accra’s international airport. After a couple of false starts I gave up, walked out, and headed for the taxi stand. In the many days that followed, this ritual repeated itself with remarkable regularity. Sometimes I got the Uber, but on as many occasions, I couldn’t. The reasons for the frequent failure ranged from curious to bizarre. The “partner-drivers” would accept the request. Then they would begin to go around in circles. Sometimes they would start heading in the opposite direction. On a few occasions they would call and announce that they were “far away,” even though their registered location was visible to me on the app and their estimated time of arrival had factored into my decision to wait. It would take me a whole week to figure out that the problem wasn’t always that many Ghanaian Uber drivers couldn’t use GPS all that well, or that they were displeased with fares. There were other issues that I’d left out of my calculation, such as my payment preference, which was set to “bank card” instead of “cash.” The drivers want cash because it allows them to unofficially “borrow” from Uber and remit Uber’s money when it suits their cashflow. Though Uber offers two tiers of service, the difference in quality appeared negligible. Even on the upper tier, it was a constant struggle to find an Uber whose air conditioner hadn’t “just stopped working earlier today.” As something of a globetrotter used to seamless Uber services in European and American cities, I found the costs of onboarding onto Uber as my main means of mobility in Accra onerous. Why is a powerful corporation like Uber, reportedly valued by shrewd investment bankers at $120 billion, with $24 billion in capital raised, unable to maintain even a relative semblance of quality in its product in Ghana? And in other African cities I have visited? It may seem bleedingly obvious why heavily digitalised Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, and Google manage to deliver fairly uniform standards of product quality regardless of where their customers are based, whilst Uber, because of its greater “embeddedness in local ecosystems” and lower digitalisation of its value chain, fails. But in that seemingly redundant observation enfolds many explanations for why the innovation-based leapfrogging narrative in frontier markets, especially in Africa, unravels at close quarters.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Digital Economy, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa
463. Transforming the Institutional Landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa: Considerations for Leveraging Africa’s Research Capacity to Achieve Socioeconomic Development
- Author:
- Alex Ezeh and Jessie Lu
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In order to achieve sustainable development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), African institutions must be the leading experts on and primary providers of research solutions to local problems. Despite years of investment in capacity building, SSA lags behind every other region in terms of research outputs and government investments, and new models for building institutional capacity are needed. Through interviews with African institutional leaders and development partners working in SSA, this study finds that funding inefficiencies lead to key challenges within institutions’ governance and management structures, financial systems, talent management processes, leadership and institutional vision capacities, and peer support networks, all of which obstruct the ability of African institutions to become impactful and sustainable drivers of development outcomes in the region. We present for consideration three possible innovative models that can facilitate the emergence of strong Africa-based, Africa-led institutions: a multi-stakeholder funding platform, an integrator organization model, and a scale model.
- Topic:
- Development, Research, Sustainability, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
464. Fuel Subsidy Reform and Green Taxes: Can Digital Technologies Improve State Capacity and Effectiveness?
- Author:
- Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Reforming inefficient and inequitable energy subsidies continues to be an important priority for policymakers as does instituting “green taxes” to reduce carbon emissions. Simply increasing energy prices will have adverse impact on poorer consumers, who may spend substantial budget shares on energy and energy-intensive products even though the rich typically appropriate more of the price subsidy. Equitable pricing reforms therefore need to be accompanied by programs to transfer compensation: depending on the situation, this can be targeted or universal. Successful reforms require measures to raise awareness-of the subsidies and the problems they cause, effective dissemination of the reform to the population, and rapid feedback loops to facilitate mid-course corrections. Digital technology, including for unique identification and payments, as well as general communications, can help build government capacity to undertake such reforms and respond to changes in fuel markets. The paper outlines the use of digital technology, drawing on four country cases. The technology is only a mechanism; it does not, in itself, create the political drive and constituency to push reform forward. However, it can be employed in a number of ways to increase the prospects for successful and sustainable reform.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, Reform, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, India, and Latin America
465. Maximizing the Shared Benefits of Legal Migration Pathways: Lessons from Germany’s Skills Partnerships
- Author:
- Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The world is experiencing significant demographic shifts. By 2100, Europe’s working-age population will have declined, and sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will have greatly increased. Many of these new labor market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. Germany is one country piloting and implementing projects that can help alleviate such demographic pressures and maximize the potential mutual benefits of legal labor migration. We discuss these projects, and highlight differences in their potential impact on development in the country of origin. We recommend that European governments build on, adapt, and pilot-test one of Germany’s approaches, also known as the Global Skill Partnership model: training potential migrants in their countries of origin before migration, along with non-migrants. Ideally, governments should pursue such pilot-tests with those countries that exhibit rising future migration pressure to Europe, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Neither the conclusion nor the results of this analysis reflect the opinion of the Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) or Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Germany, and Sub-Saharan Africa
466. Midterm Report: Early Lessons from the Hewlett Foundation’s Principled Approach to Supporting Local Advocacy
- Author:
- David Devlin-Foltz, Susanna Dilliplane, and Rhonda Schlangen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2016, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation launched a new grant-making strategy to support advocacy for access to family planning and reproductive health (FPRH) services in Sub-Saharan Africa. The goal: support vibrant African organizations able to positively influence their government’s FPRH policies and funding decisions. The strategy seeks to shift power towards the local civil society organizations (CSOs) doing the advocacy work and to strengthen their capacity to advocate. During the first five years of the strategy’s implementation, the Foundation is working with the Aspen Institute’s Aspen Planning and Evaluation Program to assess and learn from the experience of its grantees and the CSOs they support. This midterm report summarizes key findings and recommendations based on evaluation activities conducted in 2017 and 2018.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Local, Advocacy, Family Planning, and Reproductive Health
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
467. The Fall of al-Bashir: Mapping Contestation Forces in Sudan
- Author:
- Magdi El-Gizouli
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- What is the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) anyway, perplexed commentators and news anchors on Sudan’s government-aligned television channels asked repetitively as if bound by a spell? An anchor on the BBC Arabic Channel described the SPA as “mysterious” and “bewildering”. Most were asking about the apparently unfathomable body that has taken the Sudanese political scene by surprise since December 2018 when the ongoing wave of popular protests against President Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year authoritarian rule began. The initial spark of protests came from Atbara, a dusty town pressed between the Nile and the desert some 350km north of the capital, Khartoum. A crowd of school pupils, market labourers and university students raged against the government in response to an abrupt tripling of the price of bread as a result of the government’s removal of wheat subsidies. Protestors in several towns across the country set fire to the headquarters of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and stormed local government offices and Zakat Chamber1 storehouses taking food items in a show of popular sovereignty.
- Topic:
- Mass Media, Food, Social Movement, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Khartoum, and Sundan
468. Algeria’s Uprisings in Context: An Interview with Prof. El Mouhoub Mouhoud
- Author:
- El Mouhoub Mouhoud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With ongoing protests in Algeria and wide calls to boycott the presidential poll in July, Algerians’ demands for radical regime change remain relentless. The army’s announcement it is considering all options to resolve the current crisis does not resonate well in a country where the army has been closely tied to regime interests. In this interview, Professor Mouhoud provides a much-needed context to better understand how the protests started and the potential scenarios that may unfold in Algeria over the coming months.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Arab Spring, Military Intervention, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Mediterranean, and Algeris
469. Challenging the Legal Ideology of the State: Cause Lawyering and Social Movements in Egypt
- Author:
- Ahmed Ezzat
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Egyptian cause lawyers have constituted a strong socio-professional group and successfully used “strategic litigation” to challenge the state’s policies and counter its conservative narratives. With President El-Sissi in power and the security grip over legal institutions and courts, doubts were raised as to whether it still makes sense to go to court against the state over matters of rights and freedoms. By reviewing several emblematic cases, the author analyzes the impact of cause lawyering on mobilization and social movements and how it contributed to reshaping the public sphere, as well as the challenges the cause lawyers’ movement faces under El-Sissi.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, United Nations, Social Movement, and Legal Theory
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean
470. Sudan’s Power-Sharing Agreement: Towards Transition or a Game of Tajility?
- Author:
- Magdi El-Gizouli
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With Sudanese protesters still shouting “Madaniyya” (civilian), only time will tell if the recently signed power-sharing accord will be a true step in the direction towards democratic transition or simply another manoeuvre in Sudan’s longstanding tradition of “tajility” and unfulfilled promises.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, North Africa, and Khartoum
471. Decentralization in Morocco: Promising Legal Reforms with Uncertain Impact
- Author:
- Lamia Zaki
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the Arab Spring, Morocco witnessed street protests demanding, among other things, for the “King to reign but not to rule”. Adopted by referendum on 1 July 2011, the latest Moroccan Constitution was prepared through a year-long participatory process led by a consultative commission. Although it did not fundamentally change the balance of powers at the highest levels of the State, it gave a new impulse to the decentralization process. Article 1 of the new Constitution states “the territorial organization of the Kingdom is decentralized”. It also enshrines the two principles of “free administration” of Local Governments (LGs) and subsidiarity and aims at reinforcing transparency, citizen participation, and governance. The new Constitution has also introduced the principle of “advanced regionalization” to make regions, in addition to municipalities, key levels of LGs in Morocco. In 2015, three Organic Laws (OLs) were issued to specify and operationalize the spirit of the Constitution at the municipal, regional, and prefectural levels.1 The decentralization process has quite a long history in Morocco. It has consistently been put at the core of the policy agenda for several decades and represented an important research topic for many observers of the political scene. Three different analytical perspectives have been put forward (in conjunction with contextual factors) to explain why and with what consequences decentralization has been put at the core of the policy agenda. The first points to the authoritarian management of LGs, based on the alliance built after independence between the monarchy and rural elites to counter the influence of urban and partisan elites.2 Using sophisticated tools (including postponing elections, successively reorganizing electoral maps, increasing the role of deconcentrated authorities), this approach led to the creation of domesticated local elites. Behind the decentralization reforms initiated through municipal charters of 1960 and 1976, researchers have pointed at the centralized and often brutal management of the Moroccan territory and of cities in particular in a context of rapid urban growth.3 A second analytical perspective highlights how decentralization has been presented and used since the 1990s by the Moroccan government as a tool to implement “democratization reforms”. The relative opening up of the political field in the late 1990s and early 2000s led to the emergence of new elites in different fields (entrepreneurship,4 real estate,5 partisan field,6 civil society,7 etc.), who have used their local base to claim rights and/or a political role at the local or national level. The third analytical perspective links decentralization to (“good”) governance reforms that focus more on the rationalization of resources, effective investment and the respect of management rules to promote local development rather than on representative democracy.8 By 2011, Moroccan municipalities were already entrusted with a wide range of mandates pertaining to the creation and management of a wide range of key services.9 Studies have shown how municipalities lack the financial and technical means to implement their missions and remain subject to the strong control of central and deconcentrated authorities.10 Yet other research has also highlighted the impact of these reforms on local notabilities and mobilization. The development of Hirak al-Rif, a protest movement born in Northern Morocco in 2016 and focused on demands for local and regional development, shows that the issue of local policies and decentralization remain at the core of the political agenda in a post-Arab Spring era. This article closely examines the recent legal reforms (2011 Constitution and Organic Laws) and looks at the technical and normative arrangements that have been developed in the wake of the Arab Spring to promote decentralization both at the municipal and regional levels. This approach has hardly been used, yet these often-neglected technical arrangements are the fruit of a bargaining process and have a direct political effect. I will show below that beyond the reforms brought by the Constitution and OLs to encourage local democracy and ensure more autonomy for LGs, important uncertainties remain as to their effective implementation on the ground. In addition to the lack of financial resources, the lack of a clear framework and implementing provisions explain that these legal changes remain largely theoretical (despite the fact that about 40 decrees and circulars that have been produced by the Directorate General for Local Governments (DGCL) at the Ministry of Interior to allow for the effective enforcement of the reforms). Contrary to many studies which consider deconcentration (i.e. administrative decentralization)11 as a way to neutralize decentralization reforms, 12 I will also argue that the deconcentration reforms simultaneously initiated with the “régionalisation avancée” (advanced regionalization) could enhance the scope and impact of the decentralization reforms in Morocco.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Arab Spring, Protests, and Decentralization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Morocco, and Rabat
472. The Tunisian Experience of Decentralization Since 2014
- Author:
- Lotfi Tarchouna
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In order for decentralization to be effective and lead to greater equality in development and political engagement, both processes of codification (i.e. enshrining provisions in the constitution) and operationalization must be guided by strong legal and political foundations, principles and structures. The paper discusses the Tunisian experience of decentralization since the adoption of the 2014 Constitution that described the Tunisian state as a unitary state and enshrined administrative decentralization, thus consolidating the Tunisian decentralized state. It argues that after the fall of Ben Ali, decentralization was seen as a way to preserve the integrity of the unitary state in Tunisia while introducing instruments of participative democracy through a reinvigorated decentralization process. First, it presents the legal and political foundations for decentralization and the new structures that were set up to implement it. Second, the paper addresses the fiscal and logistical challenges of implementation, the importance of collective civil society engagement in decentralized structures and concludes with recommendations and lessons learned from this experience in a country that recently experienced democratic transition.
- Topic:
- Democracy, State Building, Decentralization, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Tunis
473. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?
- Author:
- Souha Drissi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis
474. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?
- Author:
- Souha Drissi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis
475. Tunisia’s Upcoming Challenge: Fixing the Economy Before It's Too Late
- Author:
- Ishac Diwan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- During its first years of transition to a democratic order, Tunisia's efforts were predominantly focused on addressing political challenges. The performance of the country in this regard has been generally positive, as it has managed to consolidate democratic gains despite challenges related to the polarization of politics around identity and religious issues, the rise in insecurity related to attacks by extremist groups, and even the general disenchantment of voters for the existing political elites. However, the gains on the political front came at the expense of economic setbacks. One of the main challenges for the coming period will thus be largely economic. High unemployment, unfulfilled demands for social justice, the rise in corruption, and most importantly in the short term, an unsustainable macroeconomic trajectory, all threaten to upset recent political gains. If the upcoming administration does not address them, social discontent would endanger the hard-won democratic gains.
- Topic:
- Religion, Social Movement, Democracy, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Tunis
476. Algeria’s Presidential Elections: Stopping a Democratic Transition?
- Author:
- Dris Nouri
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Since pluralism was introduced in Algeria in the February 1989 constitution, presidential elections have become a means of conferring legitimacy to the civilian façade of military authority. Historically, the army has held centre stage in the country’s configuration of power, holding power explicitly until 1989, then indirectly after facing popular anger in October 1988, which led the armed forces to relinquish their “revolutionary legitimacy” and replace it with elections-sanctioned legitimacy. The conditions of this political openness, however, and the slide into violence in 1991, allowed authorities the opportunity to disable the capacity of elections to bring forth a democratic alternative. Elections were thus rendered periodic events designed to provide the veneer of democratic legitimacy to a supposedly civilian elected president – but who was always chosen in advance by the authorities under a rigged bureaucratic system. While this model didn’t allow Liamine Zéroual to continue his term (1995-1999), Abdelaziz Bouteflika knew how to manipulate the system to the greatest extent, allowing him to stay in power for four full terms, regardless of his deteriorating health conditions, and to even try to devise loopholes for extending to a fifth term.1 The regime did not expect to pay a high cost for running this model. Nor did it understand that the resources needed to maintain the effectiveness of this system in the collective imaginary of the Algerian people were in fact dwindling, be they material resources (revenues from oil and gas used for generous social programmes and clientele networks) or symbolic (revolutionary legitimacy, Bouteflika’s charisma). As such, the planned presidential election of 18 April 2019 – designed to renew the existing contract between the regime, its cronies, and its clientele networks - instead became the catalyst for a peaceful revolutionary movement to emerge. It was the moment when millions of Algerians took to the streets demanding radical change to the state’s mode of operating, the production process, and the distribution of power in society. As a result of the peaceful popular uprising, Algeria’s top brass was forced to intervene to remove the president who was running again for office, and the elections were cancelled in a bid to contain the unprecedented and widespread anger. However, the authorities soon realized that Algerians were demanding something deeper: the cancellation of the de facto delegated power that the military had enjoyed since independence, to be replaced with a true electoral process. In the wake of this realization, the authorities have been trying to neutralize the effectiveness of the popular uprising, going to great lengths to renew the civilian façade.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Social Movement, Elections, Protests, Repression, and Military Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris
477. The Crisis of The Algerian Presidential Elections: Candidates, Stakes, and Scenarios
- Author:
- Redouane Boudjemaa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- On 17 November, the presidential campaign, which the Algerian authorities insist on organizing on 12 December, officially started. This is despite opposition from large segments of Algerians, expressed through rallies across the majority of provinces in Algeria. These protests strongly express the widely held perception amongst the protesters that the upcoming elections will only renew the system (le pouvoir) and anchor the survival of the military regime imposed on the country since 1962. Two prominent slogans sum up this refusal, across all the protests, "no election with the gangs", highlighting the corruption of the regime, evident through the presence of the figures from the era of the resigned/removed president Bouteflika. The other slogan is, "Civilian, not a military, state", meaning that the protesters demand the building of a civilian state, not a military one. It is this slogan that confirms the necessity of breaking, on an epistemological level, with the militarization and securitization on which the political regime was built since Algeria’s independence from France in July 1962. Departing from an attempt to understand the popular movement’s refusal of the 12 December elections, and the authorities’ rigidity to impose its will and pass the election by force, this paper tries to analyze the trajectories of the five candidates in the election, the calculations of the authority, and those of the popular movement, before moving on to some likely scenarios in case the authorities succeeded, or failed, to impose the ballots.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Election watch, Protests, and Military Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris
478. Shouting for a New Algeria: Slogans as Foundations of a Political Project?
- Author:
- Nassim Balla
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- On 22 February 2019, tens of thousands of Algerians took the streets to oppose President Bouteflika running for a fifth term. This unprecedented movement in Algeria, the Hirak, is in many respects particular: it is pacifist, rooted in popular neighbourhoods, and dominated by a young generation of activists. After years of the regime’s disdain (hougra) of the marginalized, of youth, and of political opponents, a spontaneous and peaceful glimmer of hope suddenly emerged. During these protests, Algerian youth have shown incredible creativity in expressing their political demands despite having always been excluded from the formal political sphere and having themselves despised and rejected politics writ large. They have invented complex metaphorical slogans and songs to express their indignation and anger. These chants, however, are not entirely new: they have always existed in Algerian stadiums, where they were traditionally composed by young football fans, the “ultras,” and inspired from Algerian folklore and chaabi (popular) music.1 In the last decade, though, these songs saw an important revival and began encompassing strong political messages deeply anchored in an assessment of the current context. This paper seeks to analyze, deconstruct, and interpret three of these slogans and songs that were born among the ultras in Algerian stadiums and later adopted by all protesters as an alternative to classical political projects. These slogans reflect a long-lasting dissatisfaction with the status quo and are often deeply rooted in popular culture and anthems of the marginalized and forgotten in Algeria.
- Topic:
- Culture, Elections, Protests, and Youth Movement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris
479. Responding to the Rise in Violent Extremism in the Sahel
- Author:
- Pauline Le Roux
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The Sahel has experienced the most rapid increase in militant Islamist group activity of any region in Africa in recent years. Violent events involving extremist groups in the region have doubled every year since 2015. In 2019, there have been more than 700 such violent episodes (see Figure 1). Fatalities linked to these events have increased from 225 to 2,000 during the same period. This surge in violence has uprooted more than 900,000 people, including 500,000 in Burkina Faso in 2019 alone. Three groups, the Macina Liberation Front (FLM),1 the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS),2 and Ansaroul Islam,3 are responsible for roughly two-thirds of the extremist violence in the central Sahel.4 Their attacks are largely concentrated in central Mali, northern and eastern Burkina Faso, and western Niger (see Figure 2). Multiple security and development responses have been deployed to address this crisis. While some progress has been realized, the continued escalation of extremist violence underscores that more needs to be done.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Regional Cooperation, and Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso
480. Assessing Attitudes of the Next Generation of African Security Sector Professionals
- Author:
- Kwesi Aning and Joseph Siegle
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Africa’s armed forces are in transition from an independence-era model to one more suited to today’s conflicts and threats. They are increasingly called upon to engage in preventive action, resolve domestic security crises, combat transnational threats, and protect the progression toward more democratic governance. Understanding how African security sector actors’ perceptions may be shifting in light of these changes can provide insights to improving their effectiveness. This study, involving 742 African security sector professionals from 37 countries, assesses differences in the attitudes, motivations, and values of the emerging generation of African security sector professionals. Understanding these differences may raise awareness, provide a basis for reform, and create an impetus for improving the citizen-security actor relationship.
- Topic:
- Globalization, National Security, Democracy, State Building, and transnationalism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mediterranean, and Sahara
481. Shifting Borders: Africa’s Displacement Crisis and Its Security Implications
- Author:
- Wendy Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen record numbers of Africans forcibly displaced from their homes. The most recent figure of 25 million people displaced is a 500-percent increase from 2005. While much attention focuses on economic migrants who are trying to cross into Europe, 95 percent of those who are displaced remain on the continent. Two-thirds of these are displaced within their home countries. In short, the reality faced is more accurately characterized as an African displacement, rather than a European migrant, crisis. This paper explores the drivers of population displacement in Africa, security ramifications, and priorities for reversing this destabilizing trend.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, Political stability, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Sahara
482. Envisioning a Stable South Sudan
- Author:
- Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Majak D'Agoôt, Remember Miamingi, Lauren Hutton, Phillip Kasaija Apuuli, Luol Deim Kuol, and Godfrey Musila
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The internal conflict and resulting humanitarian crisis embroiling South Sudan since December 2013 have exposed the country’s fragility. A weak national identity, ethnically based violence, a legacy of violent conflict resolution, personalized and patronage-based politics, weak institutional checks on the abuse of power, and the absence of encompassing leadership, among other factors, all pose obstacles to peacebuilding. As a result, envisaging a stable South Sudan has become increasingly difficult for many South Sudanese and external observers. With regional and international diplomacy rightly focused on negotiating an immediate end to hostilities, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has asked a selection of South Sudanese and international scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders to share their visions of the strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of dissimilation to a more stable reality. These visions, taken individually and collectively, are intended to help sketch out some of the priorities and prerequisites for transforming today’s highly fragmented security landscape in South Sudan to one in which its citizens are safe in their own country and are protected from external threats.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
483. Africa Lags in Protections against Human Trafficking
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Trafficking in persons has become a multibillion dollar business in Africa that African governments have been slow to address.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Children, Women, Slavery, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Burundi, Eritrea, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Mediterranean
484. Africa’s Unresolved Conflicts a Key Driver of Food Insecurity
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Conflict is a central factor in the geography of Africa’s food insecurity. The acuteness of this insecurity deepens the longer a conflict continues.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Burundi, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic
485. Progress and Setbacks in the Fight against African Militant Islamist Groups in 2018
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Declines in violent activity linked to Boko Haram and al Shabaab are balanced by increases in the Sahel, generating a mixed picture of the challenge posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
- Topic:
- Violent Extremism, ISIS, Islamic State, and Militant Islam
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, Somalia, Mali, Chad, and Niger
486. The Complex and Growing Threat of Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The escalation of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel reflects an array of diverse actors operating within distinct geographic concentrations.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, International Cooperation, and Militant Islam
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso
487. A Review of Major Regional Security Efforts in the Sahel
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Increased attacks from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel coupled with cross-border challenges such as trafficking, migration, and displacement have prompted a series of regional and international security responses.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Trafficking, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Sahel, and Niger
488. Frontlines in Flux in Battle against African Militant Islamist Groups
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- A surge of attacks in the Sahel coupled with declines in activity by Boko Haram, ISIS, and al Shabaab reflect the constantly shifting threats posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
- Topic:
- Violent Extremism, ISIS, and Militant Islam
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Egypt, Somalia, Mali, and Sahel
489. Record Number of Forcibly Displaced Africans Likely to Grow
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- With Africa's population expected to double by 2050, the rapid increase in the number of forcibly displaced Africans of the past decade will continue to expand unless key drivers are reversed.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Central African Republic
490. Myths about Human Trafficking in Africa
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Human trafficking remains a significant problem in Africa, exploiting vulnerable individuals—children, women, and men—for forced labor as well as prostitution.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Labor Issues, Children, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, North Africa, West Africa, and East Africa
491. Timeline of South Sudan Peace Agreements and Violence
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements signed since the conflict began in 2013, the humanitarian costs to the citizens of South Sudan continue to grow.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
492. African Migrant Flows Reshaping Security Challenges in Africa
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The dynamism of clandestine African migration flows continues to present criminal and violent extremist groups opportunities for exploitation.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, Violent Extremism, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Southern Europe
493. The Complex and Growing Threat of Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The escalation of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel reflects an array of diverse actors operating within distinct geographic concentrations.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, and Militant Islam
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso
494. China and instability in developing countries
- Author:
- Nicholas Crawford
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- China has become the largest lender to developing countries, and a major investor there too. As a result, it has a major stake in many countries facing political and economic instability. Western policymakers involved in responding to instability and crises overseas need to understand how China navigates these situations. China’s approach is similar in some respects to that of Western states, but there are also important differences. China’s policy towards countries facing political and economic instability is driven by four main concerns: It seeks to strengthen and maintain its partnerships with those countries to ensure they remain open to and supportive of the Chinese government and its businesses. China is determined to protect its financial interests, businesses and citizens from the harms that result from instability. It is concerned to see its loans repaid, its investments secure, its workers safe and its supply chains undisrupted. It wants to maintain its narrative of non-interference. Any intervention in the politics or policies of its partner states must be seen as being at the invitation of their governments (although China may pressure its partners for consent). China wants to increase its influence in the world, independently and distinctively. It is increasingly proactive in its response to instability in partner countries. Some responses seek to address the instability directly; other responses are intended to protect Chinese interests in spite of the instability. This paper analyses the political economy of China’s responses to instability, identifies the types of responses China undertakes, and assesses these responses.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Cooperation, Developing World, Political stability, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, and Asia
495. Gender and Corruption in Botswana: Perceptions, Participation and Considerations for Anti-Corruption Policy
- Author:
- Marumo Omotoye
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- Several studies have argued that corruption has a greater impact on women than men and that increasing women’s representation in key decision-making positions has a positive effect in reducing corruption. However, limited scholarly and policy attention has been devoted to understanding the link between gender and corruption in Botswana. This paper explores the gendered differences of perceived and actual participation in bureaucratic corruption in Botswana. By examining Afrobarometer data and undertaking a documentary analysis, the study finds that while levels of perceived corruption by men and women in public institutions were high, participation in bureaucratic corruption (bribery) was considerably lower. Contrary to the notion that corruption has a greater impact on women than men, this study finds that higher levels of participation across all public service categories were reported by unemployed men, in particular, having to give a gift or a favour to avoid problems with the police. Notwithstanding the scant availability of data, the documentary analysis revealed that non-monetary forms of corruption such as sextortion (sexual extortion) have been experienced by female students and undocumented female migrants in Botswana. Nevertheless, this form of corruption has received little policy attention, despite its potential to undermine gender equality efforts. Additionally, the study finds little correlation between higher levels of women’s representation in key decision-making positions (i.e., parliament and cabinet) and lower levels of corruption in Botswana. There is a need for both the gender and anti-corruption policy framework to be synthesised in order to specifically reflect on and respond to the perceived gendered dimensions of corruption. The establishment of an independent police authority or commission might not only increase levels of public trust and confidence in the police service, but also strengthen levels of transparency and accountability.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Women, and Men
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
496. Education and Labour Market Activity of Women in Botswana
- Author:
- Goitseone Khanie
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- This study examines the prevalence of female participation in labour market activities and investigates the role played by education in this participation. Using the 2015/16 Botswana Multi Topic Household Survey data and a multinomial logit model, the study found that women with tertiary education are more likely to be wage employed relative to self-employment, whereas those with lower to no education are more likely to be unemployed or out of the labour force. This is because higher education is normally considered a prerequisite for most wage jobs. It is therefore imperative for the government to continue educating women beyond secondary level as it will better equip them to participate in more meaningful labour market activities. On the other hand, there is need to stimulate the demand side of the labour market in order to accommodate the rising numbers of women with high levels of education. In order to encourage participation of women in high rewarding self-employment activities, there is need to intensify empowerment schemes that are largely oriented towards their self-employment.
- Topic:
- Education, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Employment
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
497. The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Market Development in Botswana’s Economy
- Author:
- Koketso Molefhi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- The study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock and bond markets development in Botswana using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds Test. The results indicate that macroeconomic variables have an impact on capital market development in Botswana. In the short run, real output, money supply and inflation have a positive influence on the development of the stock market, while real exchange rate retards its development. Real output further supports the development of the stock market in the long run. For the bond market, only two variables, inflation rate and lending rate have positive and negative impact on the bond market in the long run respectively, while none of the variables influence the bond market in the short run. Policy implications include increased efforts by policy makers to increase money supply, gross domestic product for the development of stock market, while the bond market development requires a decrease in lending rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Capital Flows, Macroeconomics, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
498. Structural Transformation and Fiscal Policy in Botswana
- Author:
- Kelesego Mmolainyane
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses impacts of fiscal policy on structural transformation in Botswana using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model over the period of 1990 to 2015. The study uses an inclusive sustainable transformation (IST) index and government expenditure as proxies for structural transformation and fiscal policy respectively. Results show that prudent fiscal policy can be used as a major strategic tool for structural transformation in Botswana. Most evidently, IST index responds positively to government expenditure shocks over time. In addition, fiscal policy innovations dominantly account for movements in structural transformation in Botswana. Notwithstanding, Botswana has a lot of potential and opportunity to use its fiscal policy more effectively and efficiently to promote an inclusive structural transformation that leads to sustainable economic growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, Economic structure, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
499. Unemployment in the SADC Region
- Author:
- Johanne Motsatsi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- The objective of this study is to estimate the determinants of unemployment in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region using annual data from 2000 to 2016. Given the characteristic of the data, the study adopts Fixed Effect (FE) estimation technique. For further analysis, the study also estimated the ARDL panel model to capture persistence effect of unemployment in the region. The FE results reveals that real GDP, foreign direct investment, consumer price index, credit to the private sector and interest rate are negatively related to unemployment. While trade openness, labour productivity and population have a positive sign. The results estimated with ARDL model are not very different from those of FE model, but we obtained a noticeably smaller estimates for ARDL model. Variables which have negative association with unemployment suggest that they are likely to reduce unemployment. Therefore, such indicators may be of interest to policy makers when formulating unemployment reduction strategies. In terms of policy advise, the study recommends the government of SADC member states to encourage the education system that can equip leaners with entrepreneurial skills and in-job practical skills, in order to promote high success rate of SMMEs as well as to provide skills needed in the labour market. It also recommended enforcement of free trade of goods and services in the region as a means of making the industrial sector an engine of economic growth in order to create much needed employment.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Policies, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
500. Consumption Inequality in Botswana: The Decomposition of the Gini Coefficient of Consumer Expenditures
- Author:
- Lillian Mookodi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- This paper applies the Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985) inequality decomposition approach on food and non-food expenditures on the 2009/10 Botswana Core Welfare Indicator Survey; and the 2015/16 Multi Topic Indicator Survey datasets with an objective to see how overall inequality translates into inequality within each expenditure component. To test for a robustness of our results, we apply a simple bootstrap procedure to obtain the means, standard errors and confidence intervals for the component Gini coefficients estimates. The decomposition analysis results show that overall inequality based on the Gini coefficient of consumption expenditure within the groups has increased between the two periods from 0.498 to 0.533. These results suggest that this rise in overall expenditure inequality is due to the increased burden in the household budget of non-food spending, which tends to be more unequal than food spending. The consumption expenditure is very unequal on non-food items like recreation and hotels; health; education and transport. On one hand, lower Gini coefficients are observed for food; and clothing and footwear; these commodities are considered as necessities among others. This paper finally offers some possible policy measures to curb this consumption expenditure inequality.
- Topic:
- Economics, Developing World, Inequality, and Economic Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana