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  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Since independence and for fourteen years of war, Liberia's army, police and other security agencies have mostly been sources of insecurity and misery for a destitute people. The internationally driven attempt to radically reform the security sector since the war's end in 2003 is a major chance to put this right and prevent new destabilisation. Security sector reform (SSR) programs have been unprecedented in ambition but with mixed results. Army reform, entailing complete disbanding of existing forces, has made significant progress despite lack of proper oversight of private military companies (PMCs) and of consensus on strategic objectives. But police and other security reforms are much less satisfactory. The bold approach to army reform was possible due to strong national consensus and the presence of a large, liberally mandated UN presence. Government and donors must sustain their support to maintain hard-won momentum in army reform and, once clear benchmarks are set, give a floundering police force more resources. The drawdown of the UN force, begun in the second half of 2008, underlines the urgency.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Government, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, United Nations, Liberia
  • Author: George Shepherd, Peter Van Arsdale
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
  • Abstract: Darfur is located in the Western part of Sudan and borders Libya to the north, and Chad and CentralAfrican Republic to the West. It had an estimated population of seven million (prior to refugee and IDPdisplacements), representing more than 70 tribes, and is potentially rich in natural resources includingoil, copper, and uranium, as well as reservoirs of subsurface "Pleistocene water."
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Libya
  • Author: Bjørn Møller
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Piracy is an old problem which is now again attracting attention, mainly because of the surge of pirate attacks off the coasts of Somalia. Closer analysis shows the problem to be of quite modest proportions. The international naval protection of merchant shipping holds out some prospects of containing the problem, but it is most likely to solve itself. If international shipping opts for the route south of Africa, piracy will die out for a lack of targets. Maritime terrorism is, likewise, a problem of very limited proportions. It is often conflated with piracy, but there are significant differences between the two phenomena, the latter being undertaken for selfish reasons, the former for the sake of some higher cause. Whereas it is conceivable that maritime terrorists will gradually transform themselves into pirates, a transformation in the opposite direction is well Nigh inconceivable. Besides the analysis of these two phenomena, the overlap between them and certain naval strategies are also briefly touched upon.
  • Topic: Security, Crime, International Law, International Security
  • Political Geography: Africa, Somalia
  • Author: Bjørn Møller
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Somalia has been without a functioning state ever since 1991, when the former dictator, Siyad Barre, was overthrown. None of the competing factions were strong enough to take his place as ruler of the country, producing first chaos, but gradually a form of stateless order. The international interventions have ever since the failed, and counter-productive intervention by the United Nations and the United States in the early 1990 exacerbated rather than mitigated the problems, let alone solved them. This was especially the case for the Ethiopian invasion (December 2006-January 2009), which produced utter chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Since the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, Islamist extremist militias have been establishing control of Somalia, and they may or may not be able to maintain this control. If they pursue their radical programme of Islamisation, their reign is likely to be short, but if they moderate themselves they may retain control.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, United Nations, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Somalia
  • Author: Alexander Stroh
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Recent publications suggest that exclusively ethnoregional parties are as rare in sub-Saharan Africa as elsewhere. At the same time, the idea that ethnicity is a very special feature of African party politics persists. The paper acknowledges the general relevance of ethnicity in party competition but emphasizes the level on which it becomes important. It develops a microbehavioral approach which pays particular attention to the strategic choices of party elites in order to supplement the dominant structuralist thinking in party research on Africa. An in-depth evaluation of detailed election data from Burkina Faso shows that strategies which rely on personal proximity between the voter and the candidates influence the parties' success to a great extent. Parties maximize their chances of winning seats if they concentrate their limited resources on the home localities of leading party members. Hence, African party politics are less dependent on ethnic demography than is often implied but more open to change through elite behavior.
  • Topic: Democratization, Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Edward Thomas
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005, ending two decades of war between Sudan's central government and the Southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army. The CPA shares wealth and power between Sudan's powerful Centre, a newly autonomous South, and Sudan's other vast, diverse, impoverished peripheries. The bold peace gave new legitimacy to the two parties, who agreed to face their first competitive elections in 2009. Southern Sudan will have a referendum on self-determination in 2011.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan
  • Author: Sam Jones
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Careful consideration of the appropriate level and composition of aggregate public spending is vital in low income countries, especially in the presence of large volumes of foreign aid. Not only can expansion of the public sector weaken economic growth, but also provision of public services may be difficult to re­trench. These issues are relevant to Mozambique as the share of government in GDP already is comparatively high and strategic management of aggregate public spending historically has been weak. A new long-term macroeconomic model quantifies the implications of alternative aggregate spending profiles. It shows that small increases in minimum levels of government spending correspond to large increases in the duration to aid independence. Sharp reductions in aid availability would necessitate significant fiscal and economic adjustments, including cuts in real public spending per capita. For this reason, there is no room for complacency as regards the future of development finance to Mozambique.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, International Political Economy, Poverty, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Lena Giesbert, Susan Steiner, Mirko Bendig
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: This paper argues that the study of the demand for financial services in developing countries leaves out part of the story, if it looks at only one of the three elements of the so called finance trinity, i.e. savings products, loans, or insurances, as is largely done in the literature. In contrast to previous research, it is assumed that households' choice for any of these services is strongly interconnected. Therefore, the paper simultaneously estimates the determinants of household demand for savings, loans and insurances by applying a multivariate probit model on household survey data from rural Ghana. On the one hand, the estimation results confirm the common finding that poorer households are less likely to participate in the formal financial sector than better off households. On the other hand, there is empirical evidence that the usage of savings products, loans and insurances does not only depend on the socio-economic status of households, but also on various other factors, such as households' risk assessment and the past exposure to shocks. In addition, trust in the providing institution and its products appear to play a key role.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Gregory Mthembu-Salter
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: In a region apparently awash with weapons and plagued with rising levels of armed crime, Malawi is a welcome exception to these characteristics. In early 2007 there were only 9,320 legally registered firearms in Malawi excluding those used by the security forces, compared to just under 87,000 in Zambia (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 286) and nearly 4 million in South Africa (Gould et al., 2004, p. 133). Though a country of an estimated 13 million people, in the 5 years between 1996 and 2000 Malawi suffered just 2,161 reported cases of armed robbery (Mwakasungula and Nungu, 2004, p. 89). For 2005 the figure was 316 and for 2004 it was 263, according to figures provided by the Malawi Police Service (MPS). Even leaving aside South Africa, where there were 119,726 recorded cases of aggravated robbery in 2006 (SAPS, 2006), Malawi's armed crime statistics still compare favourably with the rest of the region. In neighbouring Zambia, for example, where there is a population of only 10 million people, there were 3,168 reported cases of armed robbery in the 5 years between 1998 and 2002 (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 294).
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, War
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: L'Est du Tchad est une poudrière dont l'explosion pourrait déstabiliser l'ensemble du pays ainsi que les pays voisins et aggraver une situation humanitaire déjà désastreuse. Les conflits locaux fondés sur la raréfaction des ressources ont été exacerbés par des manipulations politiques nationales et régionales. La population a déjà énormément souffert des conflits internes tchadiens, de la crise du Darfour et de la guerre froide tchado-soudanaise. Les deux gouvernements, avec le soutien de leurs partenaires internationaux, devraient reprendre la mise en place de l'accord de Dakar, mais une conférence spécifiquement dédiée au conflit à l'Est du Tchad devrait également être organisée afin que les acteurs locaux et nationaux trouvent des solutions aux causes internes de la crise. Elle devrait être intégrée dans les structures existantes du processus de paix tchadien.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Development, Poverty, War
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Briggs Bomba
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Great Zimbabwe, the monument, is an imposing structure of stone blocks daringly constructed without mortar. The ruined ancient city, still majestic in its presence, is said to be the biggest ancient stone structure in Africa outside the Egyptian pyramids. This impressive fortress stood for hundreds of years defying time and weather to become not only a national symbol of strength, audacious vision, and power but also a firm footprint and testimony to ancient ingenuity on the African continent. Zimbabwe, the country, born in 1980 following independence from almost a century of British colonial rule, lies prostate today, ruined like the ancient city from which it got its name. For the past decade, the country has been coming apart block by block. Evidently, like the ruins, the country of Zimbabwe was constructed without mortar.
  • Topic: Democratization, Post Colonialism
  • Political Geography: Africa, Zimbabwe, Egypt
  • Author: Tom Slayton
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The world rice market was aflame last spring and for several months it looked as if the trading edifice that had exhibited such resilience over the last two decades was going to burn to the ground. World prices trebled within less than four months and reached a 30- year inflation-adjusted high. Many market observers thought the previous record set in 1974 would soon be toast. The fire was man-made, not the result of natural developments. While the governments in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines did not to set the world market on fire, that was the unintended result of their actions which threatened both innocent bystanders (low-income rice importers as far away as Africa and Latin America) and, ultimately, poor rice consumers at home. This paper describes what sparked the fire and the accelerants that made a bad situation nearly catastrophic. Fortuitously, when the flames were raging at peak intensity, rain clouds appeared, the winds [market psychology] shifted, and conditions on the ground improved, allowing the fire to die down. It remains to be seen, however, if the trading edifice has been seriously undermined by the actions of decision makers in several key Asian rice exporting and importing countries. In describing the cascading negative effects of these seemingly rational domestic policies, this paper aims to help policy makers in the rice exporting and importing nations to avoid a repeat of the disastrous price spike of 2008.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa, India, Asia, Latin America
  • Author: James Habyarimana, William Jack
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: In economies with weak enforcement of traffic regulations, drivers who adopt excessively risky behavior impose externalities on other vehicles, and on their own passengers. In light of the difficulties of correcting inter-vehicle externalities associated with weak third-party enforcement, this paper evaluates an intervention that aims instead to correct the intra-vehicle externality between a driver and his passengers, who face a collective action problem when deciding whether to exert social pressure on the driver if their safety is compromised. We report the results of a field experiment aimed at solving this collective action problem, which empowers passengers to take action. Evocative messages encouraging passengers to speak up were placed inside a random sample of over 1,000 long-distance Kenyan minibuses, or matatus, serving both as a focal point for, and to reduce the cost of, passenger action. Independent insurance claims data were collected for the treatment group and a control group before and after the intervention. Our results indicate that insurance claims fell by a half to two-thirds, from an annual rate of about 10 percent without the intervention, and that claims involving injury or death fell by at least 50 percent. Results of a driver survey eight months into the intervention suggest passenger heckling was a contributing factor to the improvement in safety.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Political Economy, Third World
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: Francis M. Mwega
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: In September 2000, 149 heads of state and government endorsed the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). With this endorsement they set themselves eight goals to be reached by 2015 (from the 1990 base), foremost of which is to halve the proportion of the world's people who were absolutely poor. The MDGs provide a departure from past approaches in addressing poverty. By focusing attention on a core set of interrelated goals and measurable targets, it is now easier to track progress and measure the impact of development interventions.
  • Topic: Development, Humanitarian Aid
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: A. Sarjoh Bah
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center on International Cooperation
  • Abstract: The deployment of peacekeepers is increasingly becoming a reflex solution to crises, often in the absence of viable political agreements. The cluster of peace operations in the Broader Horn of Africa – stretching from Central African Republic and Chad, through Sudan, to Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia – epitomizes both practices. Moreover, though the conflicts in the region are deeply inter-linked, the peace operations there are not, nor do they form part of a broader regional strategy. Lack of a regional strategy compounds pre-existing problems of weak commitment and slow implementation. The results have been unsurprisingly poor, at great human cost.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Post Colonialism
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea
  • Author: Jake Sherman
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center on International Cooperation
  • Abstract: The Center for International Cooperation's Security Sector Reform project, funded by the Royal Government of Norway, undertook a comparative study of legislative oversight of security sector reform (SSR) in West Africa during 2008.
  • Topic: Security, Civil War, Democratization
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Franz Nuscheler
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and Peace
  • Abstract: The World Bank blamed a „crisis of governance“ for the increasingly challenged success of international development cooperation, in particular in Sub‐Sahara Africa. After development cooperation got rid of the burden of the Cold War the international donor community consequently made Good Governance (i.e. rule of law, respect for basic human rights, fighting corruption) a precondition for effective development cooperation. At the same time economic and development theory underwent a change of paradigm beyond the neoliberal Washington Consensus taking up the insight of institutional economics: Institutions matter. Good Governance became the universal model for efficient government and development. This normative model was not spared ideological criticism, because it was suspected of paving, the way for Western concepts of „Good Governance” by means of external subsidies and political conditionalities. What proved to be much more difficult were the problems with promoting the establishment of democratic structures from outside, especially in fragile states.
  • Topic: Cold War, Globalization, Government, International Cooperation, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Nils Goede
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and Peace
  • Abstract: The report analyses the decision-making processes in the security council of the United Nations, which led to the adoption of the Somalia-Resolution 794 on 3 December 1992. For the analysis of the decision-making process the Multiple-Streams approach is employed. This concept regards decision opportunities as ambiguous stimuli concerning information, goals and measuring criteria. Hence, decisions are frequently neither rationally justified, nor are they connected with a certain problem in a linear manner. The organisation is constantly confronted with a high number of problems and policy options. Under time pressure the organisation has to decide which problems and which policy options are going to be placed on the agenda and with regard to which issues a decision is needed. During decision-making processes options and problems are often reconciled into an only artificial accord. The analysis leads to the conclusion that the adoption of resolution 794 came about due to the dynamics of the US presidential election and the constant commitment of UN Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali rather than due to the situation in Somalia.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Africa, Somalia
  • Author: Abdel-Fatau Musah
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: This paper addresses the challenges to human and regional security in the territory covered by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It examines causal factors and their effects, profiles the actors shaping the security environment, and describes the nature and impacts of their interventions. Finally, it projects possible future scenarios based on the current security dynamics. The paper examines the geopolitical environment of West Africa, with emphasis on the strategic importance of the region and the vulnerabilities emanating from its location. Within this context, it discusses the roles of local, regional, and international actors in the evolving regional security architecture, sifting through their actions, motivations, and interventions. It analyzes the attempts by national, regional, and international institutions to transform the security environment, highlighting their roles, strengths, and weaknesses; and it projects various security scenarios, proposing policy options to meet the challenges that these scenarios present.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Matthias Basedau, Alexander Stroh
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Despite earlier assumptions that ethnicity is a central feature of African party systems, there is little substantial evidence for this claim. The few studies with an empirical foundation rarely rely on individual data and are biased in favor of Anglophone Africa. This paper looks at four Francophone countries, drawing on four representative survey polls in Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Multivariate regression models and bivariate control tools reveal that ethnicity matters as a determinant of party preference, but that its impact is generally rather weak and differs with regard to party systems and individual parties. “Ethnic parties” in the strict sense are almost completely absent, and only the Beninese party system is substantially “ethnicized.” In particular, regional ties between voters and leaders—rather than ethnic affiliation alone—deserve attention in the future study of voting behavior in Africa.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Post Colonialism
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Christian von Soest
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Botswana appears to be an exception. Scholars recurrently describe the country as a “deviant” (Charlton 1990: 137-138; Kloeden et al. 2004: 53) or a “special case” (Hansohm 2001: 294) compared to the rest of Africa. A plethora of studies have been conducted on the political and economic development of the country, all stressing its “exceptionality.” Some even term Botswana the “African miracle” (Samatar 1999). The country is seen as a heaven of prosperity and stability in a region full of economic and political misery.
  • Topic: Corruption, Democratization, Post Colonialism
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The deal struck by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda for renewed military and political cooperation is an important step forward, but is not sufficient to bring peace to the Kivus. Their five-week joint military operation did not produce significant results against the Rwandan Hutu rebels. Integration of the former insurgency that came over to the government's side after Laurent Nkunda was dropped as its leader is precarious, despite the 23 March 2009 agreement it signed with Kinshasa. An international monitoring group chaired by UN Special Envoy Olusegun Obasanjo and Great Lakes Envoy Benjamin Mkapa should work with the Congolese and Rwandan governments to support and implement a genuine and comprehensive peacebuilding strategy, while donors should condition their support on adoption and implementation by Kinshasa of a comprehensive package of judicial measures to fight impunity.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Post Colonialism, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Author: Sam Jones
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: External financial flows have long held a central place in debates about how to promote socio-economic development in poor countries. Alternative development theories typically map into different views regarding the desirable form and volume of external inflows. Over the past decade, development policy has witnessed a clear shift towards a poverty reduction agenda. Unsurprisingly, this has been accompanied by changes in views concerning development finance. A dominant refrain of the present agenda is that 'traditional' approaches to development finance, characterised by official bilateral and multilateral assistance to discrete projects through a combination of loans and credits, have been inadequate. In response, reforms of traditional aid and alternative approaches to financing have been advocated.
  • Topic: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Sam Jones, Peter Gibbon, Yumiao Lin
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the revenue effects of certified organic contract farming and of use of organic farming methods in a tropical African context. These are compared with 'organic by default' conventional farming systems without contractual relations. Survey data from a medium-size cocoa-vanilla contract farming scheme in Uganda is reported using a standard OLS regression and propensity score matching approaches. The analysis finds that there are positive revenue effects for the certified crops from both participation and, more modestly, from using organic farming techniques.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxfam Publishing
  • Abstract: In climate terms, South Africa is already living on the edge. Much of it is arid or semi-arid and the whole country is subject to droughts and floods. Even small variations in rainfall or temperatures would exacerbate this already stressed environment. Most South African crops are grown in areas that are only just climatically suitable and with limited water supplies.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Duncan Green
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxfam Publishing
  • Abstract: At the time of independence in 1964 Zambia was a middle-income country and appeared set to develop into a prosperous nation. However, the combination of a tumultuous world economy and fiscal mismanagement led to rapid economic decline, which continued unabated into the 1980s and 1990s. Average economic growth from 1990-1999 was the lowest in the region and unemployment and inflation soared, resulting in per capita incomes 50 per cent less in 1999 than they had been 25 years earlier.
  • Topic: Economics, Post Colonialism, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Sawa Nakagawa, Abhinav Bahl, Meron Demisse, Megumi Ishizuka, Francisco Miranda, Kwi Young Sung
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: The Earth Institute at Columbia University launched the Millennium Cities Initiative (MCI), an urban counterpart to the Millennium Villages Project (MVP), to assist nine mid-sized cities across sub-Saharan Africa in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MCI provides research and policy analysis to the cities in order to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Increased FDI flows create employment opportunities by fostering local enterprise development and sustainable economic growth. In addition, MCI is helping the Millennium Cities to carry out needs assessments in a number of social sectors. The data from these assessments will enable MCI to generate integrated City Development Strategies to help each city meet the MDGs.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, United Kingdom
  • Author: Zaki Raheem
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: In Blantyre, Malawi , population and economic growth are placing great stress on the city's infrastructure systems. As Malawi's industrial capital, long-term improvements to Blantyre's infrastructure are necessary to generate employment, strengthen rural-urban market linkage s, and improve the regional and global competitiveness of the city's industries.
  • Topic: Development, Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: George Shepherd, Peter Van Arsdale, Negin Sobhani, Nicole Tanner, Frederick AgyemanDuah
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Africa Today Associates, Inc. (ATA) is a 501 (C) (3) non-profit organization registered in the United States of America. The organization was created in 1967 to publish the journal Africa Today and to address significant human rights issues involving the African continent. The journal had been launched in 1954 by Professor George Shepherd, the first Director of the American Committee on Africa (ACOA), to educate the public on Africa's struggle against colonialism. When ACOA could no longer publish the journal, ATA was moved to the University of Denver's Graduate School of International Studies (recently renamed the Josef Korbel School of International Studies). Since 2000, the journal has been owned and published by the University of Indiana Press.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Africa, Washington, Sudan
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against President Bashir for atrocity crimes in Darfur has brought Sudan to a new decision point. The longruling National Congress Party (NCP) has defied the court, gained African Union (AU) and Arab League pressure on the Security Council to suspend the case and restricted humanitarian aid in Darfur, putting several million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and others at risk. Darfur rebels have been emboldened, reducing prospects for diplomatic progress. Simultaneously, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the North-South civil war is unravelling. As a new U.S. special representative begins to make his mark, the international community may be ready to sacrifice the justice issue for a quick-fix deal that would ensure elections in 2010. But Sudan will have peace only when its impunity system is dismantled. The right course is to build leverage by strongly backing the ICC so as to persuade the NCP that it will only secure the deferral of Bashir's case by adopting and implementing serious reforms.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Genocide
  • Political Geography: Africa, Arabia
  • Author: Alexander Stroh
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: While much has been written about the special design of Rwanda's judiciary in order to handle the aftermath of the genocide in 1994, other institutional actions resulting from the 2003 constitution have rarely been addressed in research. However, the second (partial) parliamentary elections in September 2008 revealed some of the implications which the carefully designed electoral system has for Rwanda's political development. As a starting point, the paper emphasises the need to link the debates on institutional design in divided societies with elections in authoritarian regimes. Under different regime types, “institutional engineers” may pursue different goals. The paper concludes that in the case of Rwanda proportional representation (PR) has been implemented to support undemocratic goals. PR limits the local accountability of politicians in a political environment in which the government is not controlled by a democratic opposition. Thus, Rwanda's current PR system facilitates the maintenance of authoritarian power in the country, whereas small constituencies would establish closer links between the local populations and their representatives.
  • Topic: Democratization, Politics, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Rekha A. Kumar
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
  • Abstract: The right of indigenous people to have customary law accommodated within the communities they live is an integral part of Botswana legal system. How far traditional cultures protect the well-being of their people would illuminate the foundation of human dignity on which human rights protection stands in a country. The revelations may not be affirmative always, however. In Botswana the Constitution places a prominent status on custom in a range of contexts. The core of personal law is very much the domain of customary law. It is of particular significance for women's rights. In its application it reinforces the social order by determining the obligations of men, women and children, their entitlement to resources, property ownership, marriage and divorce. It formulates such matters as the status of widows, child custody and inheritance. In the absence of a guarantee that equality between men and women takes precedence over custom, traditional practices that discriminate against women may be lawful in some circumstances. There are a number of regional and international human rights instruments ratified by Botswana. The Government has assumed an obligation to ensure that at all its levels of administration basic rights of the people will be respected and protected. How far these legally bind Botswana in its domestic application of customary law is a legitimate question not clearly settled so far.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Human Welfare, Law
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Nils Goede
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and Peace
  • Abstract: Der Report analysiert die Entscheidungsprozesse des Sicherheitsrats der Vereinten Nationen, die am 3. Dezember 1992 zu der Verabschiedung der Somalia‐Resolution 794 geführt haben. Fürdie Analyse wird der Multiple‐Streams‐Ansatz verwendet. Im Rahmen des Ansatzes warden Entscheidungssituationen als mehrdeutige Stimuli in Bezug auf Informationen, Ziele und Messkriterien betrachtet. Entscheidungen sind vor einem solchen Hintergrund oft weder rational begründbar, noch sind sie gezwungenermaßen linear‐kausal mit einem bestimmten Problem verbunden. Die Organisation ist stets mit einer hohen Anzahl von simultan auftretenden Problemen und Optionen konfrontiert und muss unter Zeitdruck bestimmen, welche Probleme und Handlungsoptionen auf die Agenda gesetzt werden und in welchen Themenbereichen eine Entscheidung ansteht. Lösungen werden hierbei zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt (künstlich) in Übereinstimmung mit Problemen und Akteuren gebracht und in eine Entscheidung transferiert. Die Untersuchung führt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Verabschiedung der Resolution 794 weniger auf die tatsächliche Problemlage in Somalia zurückzuführen war als auf Dynamiken des amerikanischen Wahlkampfs und den stetigen Einsatz des VNGeneralsekretärs Boutros Boutros‐Ghali.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, United Nations, War, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Somalia
  • Author: Natasha Sawh
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: When the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) came into force in 1948, the horrific memory of the Holocaust was fresh in the minds of the drafters. The rise of Nazism in Germany was made possible in large part by the severe economic depression the country suffered. In 1941, President Roosevelt outlined four essential freedoms he believed to be achievable worldwide within a generation, including freedom from want. In his 1944 State of the Union address, he stated a pragmatic rationale for socio-economic rights: “People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made” (cited in Eide 1995, p.29). In the aftermath of WWII, the importance of international standards that could protect all human beings against state oppression was clear. As a result, a group of influential states agreed upon the UDHR, which expressed a bold and comprehensive vision of human rights that included political, civil, economic, social and cultural rights. Its preamble envisions the “advent of a world in which human beings shall enjoy freedom of speech and belief and freedom from fear and want.”
  • Topic: Civil Society, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa, Germany, Latin America, Nigeria, Peru
  • Author: Tanja Anita Börzel, Anna Kristin Müller-Debus, Christian Thauer
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Research Center (SFB) 700
  • Abstract: Firms relocating production to countries with lower social standards are regarded as driving force behind the regulatory 'race to the bottom'. However, there are numerous instances in which the behavior of firms reveals just the opposite: They adhere to self-regulatory standards (CSR) and even pressure governments to issue stricter public regulations. We intend to identify the conditions under which firms contribute to higher regulatory standards in states with weak regulatory capacities, thereby following a 'race to the top' rather than a 'race to the bottom'-logic. Theoretically, we set out to test in how far the existing literature can be utilized to answer this question. Empirically, the assessment concentrates on the textile and automotive industries in South Africa and HIV/AIDS abatement. Only limited state capacities have been involved in fighting HIV/AIDS in South Africa. Under which conditions do firms try to foster state capacities for the fight against the disease?
  • Topic: Health, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Niels Nagelhus Schia, Benjamin de Carvalho
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The international response to SGBV in Liberia – in spite of having been touted as one of the great success stories in implementing UNSC resolution 1325 by the UN and the Liberian government – has so far at best been misguided.
  • Topic: Crime, Gender Issues, Law
  • Political Geography: Africa, United Nations, Liberia
  • Author: Roger Bate, Richard Tren, Thompson Ayodele, Kimberly Hess, Olusegun Sotola
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: For decades, Nigeria has been plagued by counterfeit and poor-quality medicines, yet little information exists on the extent to which healthcare personnel are aw are of counterfeit and substandard medicines, and how this influences their behavior.
  • Topic: Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking
  • Political Geography: Africa, Nigeria
  • Author: Vijaya Ramachandran, Manju Kedia Shah, Alan Gelb, Taye Mengistae
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Why do firms choose to locate in the informal sector? Researchers often argue that the high cost of regulation prevents informal firms from becoming formal and productive. Our results point to a more nuanced story.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Markets, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Raymond Gilpin
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: Roughly the same size of France and six times the size of the U.S. state of Virginia, Somalia has a 3,025 km coastline (longer than the U.S. portion of the Gulf of Mexico, which is some 2,700 km ) on the northeastern corner of Africa. Its recent history has been marred by violence and instability. Since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, there have been more than a dozen attempts to forge political consensus and establish a functioning central government. 1 Although the Transnational Federal Government was established in 2003, with its capital in the southern city of Mogadishu, it remains fairly ineffective. De facto, Somalia is governed by a system of clans operating in three relatively autonomous regions – Somaliland in the northwest, Puntland in the northeast and Central Somalia in the central and southern regions.
  • Topic: Crime, International Law, Maritime Commerce
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, France, Mexico, Somalia, Virginia, Puntland, Mogadishu
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia's political system. The regime transformed the hitherto centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The intent was to create a more prosperous, just and representative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued economic growth and promised democratisation, there is growing discontent with the EPRDF's ethnically defined state and rigid grip on power and fears of continued inter- ethnic conflict. The international community should take Ethiopia's governance problems much more seriously and adopt a more principled position towards the government. Without genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and pressures in Ethiopia's polities will only grow, greatly increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would destabilise the country and region.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, Politics, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ethiopia
  • Author: Judith Burdin Asuni
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: When a group of Western oil workers was kidnapped in the Niger Delta in January 2006, the immediate hike in prices at gas stations around the world served as a timely reminder of the importance of this unstable region to international oil supplies. A previously unknown group announced it was holding the workers. It called itself the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and quickly sparked panic within the oil industry with a second set of kidnappings and a series of attacks on oil facilities. Anxiety reached new heights when, in an email sent to journalists, MEND claimed responsibility for an attack on an offshore facility, Bonga, in mid-2008. The installation, located a full seventy-five miles from the mainland, had previously been considered too ambitious a target for the militants. By the summer of 2008, oil was trading at $147 a barrel and oil production in the Delta was down by a quarter. Who was this mysterious group, whose members—armed with little more than a few AK-47s and speedboats—were able to massively disrupt oil supplies and wreak havoc on world commodity prices? Where did it come from, and what does it want? Is it a coherent group with clearly defined aims and political ambitions? Or is it merely a disparate ragtag of disillusioned youths, with powerful backers, intent on little more than petty criminality?
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Crime, Oil
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke, Jeffrey G. Williamson
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no: there is little evidence of trend since 1700. Have commodities always shown greater price volatility than manufactures? The answer is yes. Higher commodity price volatility is not the modern product of asymmetric industrial organizations - oligopolistic manufacturing versus competitive commodity markets - that only appeared with the industrial revolution. It was a fact of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The answer is less. Three centuries of history shows unambiguously that economic isolation caused by war or autarkic policy has been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro-global policy has been associated with less commodity price volatility. Given specialization and comparative advantage, globalization has been good for growth in poor countries at least by diminishing price volatility. But comparative advantage has never been constant. Globalization increased poor country specialization in commodities when the world went open after the early 19th century; but it did not do so after the 1970s as the Third World shifted to labor-intensive manufactures. Whether price volatility or specialization dominates terms of trade and thus aggregate volatility in poor countries is thus conditional on the century.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Asia, Latin America
  • Author: Jeffrey G. Williamson, Timothy J. Hatton
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970-the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be blacker and fewer will speak Spanish.
  • Topic: Demographics, Economics, Migration, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Marcus Alexander, Matthew Harding, Carlos Lamarche
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Does development lead to the establishment of more democratic institutions? The key to the puzzle, we argue, is the previously unrecognized fact that based on quantitative regime scores, countries over the past 50 years have clustered into two separate, very distinct, yet equally-common stages of political development—authoritarian states with low levels of freedom on one side an d democracies with liberal institutions on the other side of a bimodal distribution of political regimes. We develop a new empirical strategy—exploiting exogenous world economic factors and introducing new panel data estimators—that allows for the first time to estimate the effects of development as well as unobserved country effects in driving democracy at these different stages of political development. We find that income and education have the least effect on democracy when authoritarian regimes are consolidated and that only country effects, possibly accounting for institutional legacies, can lead to political development. Ironically, it is in highly democratic and wealthiest of nations that income and education start to play a role; however greater wealth and better educated citizenry can both help and hurt democracy depending again on what the country's institutional legacies are. Far from accepting the notion that much of the developing world is cursed by unchanging and poor long-run institutions, policy-makers should take note that with democratization we also see country-specific factors that in turn condition the difference income and education make for democracy.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, China, Asia, Germany
  • Author: Dirk Kohnert, Heinz Jockers, Paul Nugent
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Ghana's 2008 elections have been hailed by national and international observers as a model for Africa. This perception has prevailed despite persistent concerns about “ethnic block voting” and electoral fraud. Electoral malpractice and vote rigging along ethnic lines in Ghana's virtual two‐party system could regain decisive importance as a “third force” that could tip the balance in future, possibly coming to represent an even more important factor than the smaller opposition parties. Unfortunate diplomatic and technocratic biases in election monitoring, combined with a reluctance on the part of the responsible authorities to investigate irregularities in what appears to be a long history of fraudulent “ethnic block voting”, amounts to a dangerous time bomb of unresolved conflict which could explode in future elections.
  • Topic: Corruption, Democratization
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Judith Burdin Asuni
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: The trade in stolen oil, or “blood oil,” poses an immense challenge to the Nigerian state, harming its economy and fueling a long-running insurgency in the Niger Delta. It also undermines security in the Gulf of Guinea and adds to instability on world energy markets. The exact amount of oil stolen per day in the Niger Delta is unknown, but it is somewhere between 30,000 and 300,000 barrels. The loss to the Nigerian economy from illegal oil bunkering between 2003 and 2008 totals approximately US$100 billion. It is time for the international community to become more proactive in helping Nigeria address this complex issue. Efforts to control blood oil must be accompanied by actions against corruption, illegal arms importation, and money laundering. The enabling environment for illegal oil bunkering includes high levels of unemployed youth, armed ethnic militias, ineffective and corrupt law enforcement officials, protective government officials and politicians, corrupt oil company staff, established international markets for stolen oil, and the overall context of endemic corruption. The three types of illegal oil bunkering include small-scale pilfering for the local market, large-scale tapping of pipelines to fill large tankers for export, and excess lifting of crude oil beyond the licensed amount. The complexity of players in the illegal oil bunkering business, including local youth, members of the Nigerian military and political class, and foreign ship owners, makes it difficult to tackle the problem unilaterally. Previous attempts by the Nigerian government and international community to address illegal oil bunkering have had limited success in reducing the flow of blood oil. The problem of blood oil needs to be addressed multilaterally. Within the international community, the United States is uniquely positioned to take a leadership role in helping to dry up blood oil and address other issues in the Niger Delta.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Markets, Oil, Armed Struggle
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Nigeria, Guinea
  • Author: Alan Schwartz
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: Absent a change in current trends, further political violence in Sudan will be hard to avoid. Lack of governance capacity in the South and failure to resolve key issues between the North and South are important factors that can lead to political violence surrounding the referendum, slated for 2011, on whether the South secedes or remains part of a united Sudan. The parties need a shared sense of confidence about post-2011 futures. The North should be encouraged to cooperate in the referendum process and accept the outcome. The Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) should devote more energy and resources to governance and service delivery rather than building military capability. The international community needs an assistance strategy focused on enhancing the GOSS's capacity to deliver services through local governments. The United States and the international community should pressure and assist the parties to promptly pass referendum legislation and address fundamental issues (e.g., oil and boundaries) before the referendum.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Genocide, Human Rights, Armed Struggle
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Sudan, Arabia
  • Author: Dennis Rweyemamu
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Tanzania's current growth and poverty reduction strategies are contained in its second PRSP. This document, and the processes leading to its formulation, has helped to mobilize donor funds. However, the content of the PRSP is largely irrelevant for implementation, and has contributed little to better inter-sectoral linkages and synergies both of which were its main purposes. The immediate reasons for this irrelevancy include a participatory planning process not aligned with the domestic political process and with no budget constraints which led to a shopping list of un-prioritized initiatives; an implementation machinery around the budget process which in practice does not ensure that resources are allocated in line with the document's priorities; and limited understanding and/ or acceptance across the spectrum of government institutions and political leadership that the PRSP is the overall strategic guiding document.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Poverty, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Anne Mette Kjaer, Fred Muhumuza
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores the poverty agenda in Uganda, its drivers and its effects. We show that transforming the economy by increasing productivity was initially considered more important than to reduce poverty through redistributive policies. However, as a consequence of the 1996 elections a consensus on poverty eradication through health and education emerged. The Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) had a shopping list nature and it is therefore difficult to establish whether it was implemented. Growth and poverty reduction during the PEAP period was mainly due to a continuation of macro-economic policies that were introduced prior to the PEAP. Around the multi-party elections in 2006, policy priorities changed towards more focus on agricultural production, agro-business and infrastructure. The government now has a two-edged focus: poverty reduction through economic transformation and poverty reduction through social services. However, there is also a political agenda about remaining in power which threatens to undermine the results achieved so far.
  • Topic: Education, Health, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper describes and explains the impact of the international-driven 'New Poverty Agenda' in Ghana, focusing on the impact of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) adopted by the New Patriotic Party government in power from 2001 until 2008. The paper argues that the New Poverty Agenda has had some impacts, but not they have been limited and not necessarily helpful in achieving long term poverty reduction. The PRSP was seen by the government in Ghana as necessary to secure debt relief and donor resources, and the strategies produced by the government contained broad objectives rather than concrete strategies on how to achieve those objectives and thus had little impact on government actions. The paper discusses what was actually implemented under the NPP government and the factors influencing those actions. It highlights the constraints Ghanaian governments face in pursuing economic transformation within contemporary domestic and international contexts.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Phil Williams, James Cockayne
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: An invisible tide is rising on the shores of West Africa, creeping into its slums, its banks, its courts, its barracks, and its government ministries. It is a tide of money, influence, and power, born from the drug trafficking that is sweeping the region. Cocaine produced in Latin America is transported to West Africa, and then on to Europe. From there, the proceeds find their way back to North and South America, fueling further investment and further narco-trafficking. Some of the profits from the trade stay in West Africa, laundered through construction projects and other avenues, and increasingly corrupting politics, society, and security institutions. As the Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Antonio Maria Costa, recently put it: “Drug money is not only buying real estate and flashy cars: it is buying power.”
  • Topic: Crime, Narcotics Trafficking
  • Political Geography: Africa, West Africa
  • Author: Elisabeth Lindenmayer, Josie Lianna Kaye
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: The postelection violence that erupted in Kenya in December 2007 resulted in the deaths of over one thousand people and left three hundred thousand people displaced. While catastrophic, the scale of the social and economic destruction, not to mention the loss of life, could have been much greater were it not for the peace mediation mandated by the African Union in January 2008. The Panel of Eminent African Personalities, chaired by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, led the forty-one-day peace process, culminating in the Agreement on the Principles of Partnership of the Coalition Government, which was signed by President Mwai Kibaki and the Honorable Raila Odinga on February 28th, putting an end to the crisis which engulfed the nation and took the world by surprise.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Democratization
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: Jenna Slotin, Castro Wesamba, Teemt Bekele
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: Within the United Nations, the concept of the responsibility to protect (RtoP) has regained considerable momentum after nearly two years of stasis following the 2005 World Summit. Outside the corridors of the world body, discussions about RtoP and its application to specific regional situations, as well as the mandate of the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, one of the crimes specified in the Summit's Outcome Document, are still at a nascent stage. In order to contribute to rectifying this imbalance, the International Peace Institute, the UN Office of the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, and the InterAfrica Group convened an expert roundtable on “The Responsibility to Protect and Genocide Prevention in Africa” in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on October 23 and 24, 2008.
  • Topic: Genocide, Human Rights, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa, United Nations, Ethiopia
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Over the past decade, Africa's status in U.S. national security policy has risen dramatically, for three main reasons: America's growing dependence on Africa's oil exports, Africa's importance as a major battlefield in America's “Global War on Terrorism,” and Africa's central position in the global competition between America and China for economic and political power.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Oil, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, China, America, Ghana
  • Author: David Axe
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The two-decade-old conflict in Somalia has entered a new phase, which presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the United States. The elections of new U.S. and Somali presidents in late 2008 and early 2009 provide an opportunity to reframe U.S.-Somali relations. To best encourage peace in the devastated country, Washington needs a new strategy that takes into account hard-learned lessons from multiple failed U.S. interventions. The old strategy favoring military force and reflexive opposition to all Islamists should give way to one emphasizing regional diplomacy and at least tacit acceptance of a government that is capable of bringing order to Somalia.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Somalia
  • Author: Peter Hansen
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the role of the mild stimulant khat in the economic and political transformation of the independent, yet internationally unrecognized Republic of Somaliland. Rather than seeing khat as a hindrance for nation-state formation and as a developmental problem, the paper argues that khat has been important to the economic viability of Somaliland and to the formation of political practices and identities. In this sense, khat should be seen not only as a drug contributing to violence, state failure and inadequate development, but also as underpinning economic processes, political identities and societal structures that have been crucial to the formation and political success of Somaliland. The paper adds to our understanding of the links between emerging political and economic orders in a post-conflict society.
  • Topic: Economics, Peace Studies, Political Economy, Narcotics Trafficking, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Africa, Somalia
  • Author: Todd Moss, Lauren Young
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Ghana can be considered a relative success story in Africa. We cite six variables—peace and stability, democracy and governance, control of corruption, macroeconomic management, poverty reduction, and signs of an emerging social contract—to suggest the country's admirable political and economic progress. The expected arrival of sizeable oil revenues beginning in 2011–13, however, threatens to undermine that progress. In fact, numerous studies have linked natural resources to negative outcomes such as conflict, authoritarianism, high corruption, economic instability, increased poverty, and the destruction of the social contract. The oil curse thus threatens the very outcomes that we consider signs of Ghana's success. This paper draws lessons from the experiences of Norway, Botswana, Alaska, Chad, and Nigeria to consider Ghana's policy options. One common characteristic of the successful models appears to be their ability to encourage an influential constituency with an interest in responsible resource management and the means to hold government accountable. The Alaska model in particular, which was designed explicitly to manufacture citizen oversight and contain oil-induced patronage, seems relevant to Ghana's current predicament. We propose a modified version of Alaska's dividend program. Direct cash distribution of oil revenues to citizens is a potentially powerful approach to protect and accelerate Ghana's political and economic gains, and a way to strengthen the country's social contract. We show why Ghana is an ideal country to take advantage of this option, and why the timing is fortuitous. We conclude by confronting some of the common objections to this approach and suggest that new technology such as biometric ID cards or private mobile phone networks could be utilized to implement the scheme.
  • Topic: Corruption, Economics, Oil, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Andreas Mehler
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Little attention has been paid to the factual effect of the state's security forces on the security of African citizens. Reports about security forces' contribution to widespread insecurity are frequent: the protectors become violators and their appearance causes fear, not security. In many African crisis countries the realization of better security forces appears to be an elusive goal, either because violent conflicts are not definitively settled and therefore do not allow for decent reform or because a lack of capacity as a result of material constraints is not easy to remedy. The self‐help mechanisms used to compensate for the lack of state‐sponsored security need more attention. However, it has to be acknowledged that the ideal of a neutral and effective force loyal to the state is shared by a great majority of the population. This contribution compares the experiences of Liberia and the Central African Republic, two extreme cases of strong and weak international involvement, respectively, in post‐conflict security‐sector reform.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Africa, Liberia
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: At the centre of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness is the idea of country ownership. It is meant to change the situation in many aid dependent African countries where donors dominate decision-making over which policies are adopted, how aid is spent, and what conditions are attached to its release. This article assesses the impact of recent aid reforms to put ownership into practice.
  • Topic: Foreign Exchange, Poverty, Third World, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Neil Webster
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: There are two fundamentally different understandings of how to bring about development. One argues that through the right policies it is possible to create an enabling environment for the development of people and societies. The other emphasises that development can only take place if those who are supposed to benefit from it, insist on it themselves. In the second understanding development cannot be created from above or from outside. So-called cash transfer programmes having spread from Latin America to Africa and Asia are based on this understanding as they transfer money to poor people on certain conditions. The question is to what extent these programmes contribute to development.
  • Topic: Development, Poverty, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, Asia, Latin America
  • Author: Raymond Gilpin, Richard Downie
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has enormous economic potential thanks to its rich mineral deposits and vast tracts of arable land. Historically, these resources have been exploited by predatory leaders and a host of subregional actors. The time is now ripe for the DRC to put years of war and economic underdevelopment behind it. The business community has an important part to play in promoting sustainable peace in the DRC. Business communities in Bukavu and Lubumbashi have managed to remain profitable in the very trying years following the signing of the 1999 Lusaka peace accord by showing great resilience and versatility, primarily outside formal channels. Congolese businesses face serious obstacles, including poor infrastructure, high taxes, extortion, and market distortions. However, respondents expressed relatively little concern about insecurity and violence, suggesting that these costs have been internalized or that other obstacles impose much greater costs. DRC businesses neither want nor expect handouts. Respondents would prefer assistance in removing barriers to trade, improving infrastructure, and reducing corruption. Respondents are broadly optimistic about the future and their economic prospects, and have a strong sense of being stakeholders in shaping society. This bodes well for the future of the DRC, provided public policy can harness this energy and not impede it.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Author: Kate Meagher
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Do network theory really offer a suitable concept for the theorization of informal processes of economic regulation and institutional change? This working paper challenges both essentialist and skeptical attitudes to networks through an examination of the positive and negative effects of network governance in contemporary societies in a range of regional contexts. The analysis focuses on three broad principles of non-state organization – culture, agency and power – and their role in shaping processes of economic and political governance. It will be shown that the effective theorization of informal regulatory processes requires attention to the specific interaction of culture, agency and power in particular social contexts. Emphasizing a grounded theory approach, this article draws on cutting-edge network research from East Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and Western societies to develop theoretical tools for the comparative study of non-state governance and its impact on wider processes of institutional change.
  • Topic: Political Theory, Sociology, Governance, Culture
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe, East Asia
  • Author: France Bourgouin
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The notion of networks is frequently used by social science scholars in order to explain various forms of social and economic linkages. In this Working Paper, I question why it is that we have replaced older notions of sociality such as culture, community, or group with network, and what the analytical gains are if any. Building upon recent ethnographic fieldwork conducted with foreign African businessmen and women employed in Johannesburg's tertiary sector multinational corporate, I argue that the network approach is too narrow a way for conceiving the linkages and connections between individuals; the processes and institutional channels that connect individuals may not be so apparent and “mappable” but rather much more diffuse and context-based.
  • Topic: Political Theory, Sociology, Culture
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Malte Gephart
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: While in an initial legal and academic anti-corruption wave corruption itself was at the center of analysis, research is now increasingly focused on anti-corruption discourse and praxis. The latter analyses have generated numerous criticisms of anti-corruption activities and anti-corruption research, and these are presented in this literature review. These criticisms range from the anti-corruption norm's legitimacy deficit, to the difficulty of defining and measuring corruption, to the discourse's depoliticization through its technicalization. The anti-corruption movement faces particular difficulties with respect to the tension between the universality of the anti-corruption norm and its simultaneous contextualization for specific and local application. This tension is especially important because it touches upon the central issues of the respective political communities, such as the division of the private from the public, which differ from one cultural context to another. The contextualization of anti-corruption concepts has to be enabled in various areas: first, with respect to the culturally shaped conception of the division between the public and the private; second, with respect to local understandings of corruption, that is, what is actually meant when talking about “corruption”; and third, with respect to the low socioeconomic development levels in some countries, which do not permit the absence of corruption (evading a zero-tolerance rhetoric).
  • Topic: International Relations, Corruption, International Cooperation, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, United Nations
  • Author: Silvia Colombo
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), in cooperation with the International Affairs Institute (IAI) of Rome, held the second seminar of the Mediterranean Strategy Group in Genoa on May 10-12 2009 under the title “Is Regional Cooperation in the Maghreb Possible? Implications for the Region and External Actors”. The meeting is part of a multi-year project of dialogue and analysis exploring critical Mediterranean issues in a transatlantic context. The Mediterranean Strategy Group is conducted with the support of the Compagnia di San Paolo, ENEL, OCP Group, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, and the Luso-American Foundation. The decision to convene the meeting in Genoa was in keeping with the city's identity and role as a “gateway to the Mediterranean,” and the discussion benefited from both the setting and the assistance of the municipality.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Germany, North Africa
  • Author: Emiliano Alessandri
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: The resurgence of sea piracy has made headlines in recent months, becoming the object of intense debate, also among scholars and practitioners. Attention has concentrated particularly on piracy off the Horn of Africa (especially in the Gulf of Aden), where the phenomenon has reached critical levels. Reports speak of over a hundred attacks in 2008 alone and rising figures in 2009. Some 18 merchant ships are currently detained by Somali pirates together with a growing number of hostages. Ransoms paid in 2008 are estimated to be in the range of over a hundred million US dollars.
  • Topic: Security, Maritime Commerce
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Andreas Mehler
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes the declining importance of political parties in the Central African Republic (CAR). It argues that the problematic attitude of elites who are fluctuating between violent and peaceful behavior in order to further their own careers is jeopardizing both peace and democracy. The author hypothesizes that both political parties and rebel movements are failing to adequately represent (ethnoregional) interests, but that parties are suffering more in the course of the enduring war and the peace process. Patterns of elite behavior are presented as the main explanation for the resulting crisis of representation, with international actors' preference for inclusionary power-sharing deals seen as the main aggravating factor.
  • Topic: Democratization, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Conflicts among tribes have claimed several thousand lives in South Sudan in 2009, with the worst violence in and around the vast, often impassable state of Jonglei. Violence often afflicts pastoral communities, but in this area it has taken on a new and dangerously politicised character. With the death toll over the past year exceeding that in Darfur and displacement affecting more than 350,000 people, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) should recognise the primarily local nature of the conflicts, extend state authority and prove itself a credible provider of security lest the problems become major obstacles on the road to self-determination and beyond. International partners must simultaneously step up their support or risk seeing the South become increasing unstable ahead of national elections and the self-determination referendum.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Islam
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Sudan
  • Author: Lars Buur, Obede Suarte Baloi
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyses the seemingly uncontroversial public life of the PRSP approach in Mozambique and suggests that it embodies much of the Frelimo government's thinking about development since independence, though obviously 'packaged' to fit international donor discourses as they continually change. The PRSP is therefore not an outright 'imposition' on the Frelimo government or necessarily a 'challenge' to its sovereignty, as it is often argued. In general we argue that the PRSP became over time a broad 'consensus document' because it came to potentially incorporate 'all' stakeholders needs and wishes. We argue that after the political turbulence of the 1980s and 1990s with privatisation and structural adjustments, the PRSP allowed for different elite groups to find common ground with regard to ideological and party-preserving concerns, as social and market-economic trade-offs could now be legitimately accommodated.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Morten Nielsen
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Although reciprocal relationships with neighbours and local-level civil servants are of paramount importance to people living on the outskirts of Maputo, Mozambique, they also harbour destructive potentials. In an unstable urban environment built on a presumption of malice, it is consequently important only to reveal what needs to be seen while concealing those facets which might awaken unwanted desires. This working paper examines how residents in a periurban area seek to position themselves at appropriate distances to important but potentially dangerous others. It is argued that house-building constitutes a potent medium for proportioning viable distances so that reciprocal exchanges can be realized without being harmed by presumed greedy and envious others. In particular, the paper explores how house-builders imitate urban norms which state and municipality claim to be using but which they are incapable of implementing. Through such processes of inverse governmentality, illegal occupancy acquires a form of pragmatic legitimacy when appearing to materialise state-defined urban norms.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Sociology
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mozambique
  • Author: Macartan Humphreys, James Fearon, Jeremy M. Weinstein
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Can brief, foreign-funded efforts to build local institutions have positive effects on local patterns of governance, cooperation, and well-being? Prior research suggests that such small-scale, externally driven interventions are unlikely to substantially alter patterns of social interaction in a community, and that the ability of a community to act collectively is the result of a slow and necessarily indigenous process. We address this question using a randomized field experiment to assess the effects of a community-driven reconstruction (CDR) project carried out by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) in northern Liberia. The project attempted to build democratic, community-level institutions for making and implementing decisions about local public goods. We find powerful evidence that the program was successful in increasing social cohesion, some evidence that it reinforced democratic political attitudes and increased confidence in local decision-making procedures, but only weak evidence that material well-being was positively affected. There is essentially no evidence of adverse effects. *Jeremy Weinstein is on leave from the Center for Global Development.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Civil War, Development, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, Liberia
  • Author: Todd Moss, Benjamin Leo
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Zimbabwe is embarking on a long, complex, and difficult journey to rebuild its economy, which has been shattered by years of neglect and destructive government policies. If the final political hurdles are overcome hopefully sooner rather than later—the new coalition government will be faced with making politically difficult decisions and addressing conclusively the economic ghosts of the past. One of those ghosts is more than $5 billion owed to external creditors, of which nearly 80 percent is arrears. Clearing Zimbabwe's external debt arrears and securing comprehensive debt relief will be a critical step in eventual recovery. By doing so, the government will remove a crippling burden on its budget, investment climate, and overall macroeconomic environment. More important to the success of the coalition government, it will unlock hundreds of millions of dollars in new external assistance for critical reconstruction programs that will improve the Zimbabwean people's quality of life. This paper provides a detailed overview of the arrears clearance and debt relief processes. The purpose is to spark a debate in creditor capitals and hopefully to buttress the government's analytical foundation. With a strong dedicated team of experts—and support from relevant donor agencies— the Zimbabwean government will one day conclusively address its crushing debt burden and proceed with the rebuilding of a once vibrant and proud nation.
  • Topic: Corruption, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Zimbabwe
  • Author: Sandy Africa
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
  • Abstract: A common public perception about modern day intelligence services in Africa is that they are mere extensions of the too-often authoritarian leaders under whom they operate. In some cases, the intelligence services appear to tolerate this perception – some would suggest even fuel it – because of the apparent power, access and influence intelligence provides. As despised or ridiculed as intelligence services might be, they often hold a trump card in domestic and international relations, and are quite aware of this relative advantage.
  • Topic: Security, Intelligence
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Dylan Hendrickson, Olawake Ismail
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
  • Abstract: This literature review on security and justice was commissioned by DFID and is intended to support the preparation of the new DFID White Paper on 'Securing our Common Future'. The purpose of the literature review is to find evidence to support the 'case for security and justice'. The key question it asks is why DFID (and other development agencies) should see security and justice as core business?
  • Topic: Security, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Law
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Eboe Hutchful
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
  • Abstract: The experience of the United Nations in mediating peace agreements has demonstrated the importance of addressing security issues at the outset. Early arrangements, for example with regard to composition and roles of security forces, can have significant impact on peace implementation. Failure to address the requirements of effective and accountable security can sow the seeds for future conflict, as earlier peace processes in Sierra Leone demonstrated, or lead to large, economically unsustainable forces, as Uganda has addressed. Failure to take into account the security needs of marginalized and socially excluded groups, such as women and children, can create new security problems, as alarmingly high rates of sexual violence in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo demonstrate.
  • Topic: Security, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa, Latin America, Sierra Leone
  • Author: Bryant Cannon
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: Mekelle, a rapidly developing city in northern Ethiopia, is located about 780 km from the capital, Addis Ababa. Established nearly 150 years ago by Emperor Yohannes, the city is nestled in Ethiopia's temperate highlands, in the heart of a region that traces its origins back to the ancient Axum Empire that once controlled Red Sea trade (4th century BC – 10th century AD). The city maintains aproud history of many religions, particularly Orthodox Christianity, dating back to the 4th century AD. Mekelle was largely ignored in the latter half of the 20th century by Ethiopia's ruling feudal and socialist governments, but began to experience an economic and cultural rejuvenation with the election of a democratic government in Ethiopia in the early 1990s.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ethiopia
  • Author: Katherine Athanasiades, Michelle Eames, Riham Hussein, Young Rhee
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: This study was undertaken by Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) with support from the Millennium Cities Initiative (MCI) at The Earth Institute. The MCI was launched in 2006 to assist selected midsized cities across sub-Saharan Africa in their efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDG).
  • Topic: Development
  • Political Geography: Africa, AustralAsia
  • Author: Dorn Townsend
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: In the last decade, gun-related homicides in Trinidad and Tobago (T T) have risen about1,000 per cent. While higher rates of crime have permeated much of the island of Trinidad in particular, overwhelmingly violence is concentrated in relatively small, hilly, and dense urban areas on the east side of Port of Spain's central business district. On a per capita basis, the eastern districts of Port of Spain are among the most dangerous places on the planet and, as a whole, the murder rate for Port of Spain is comparable to that of Baghdad (Kukis, 2009).
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Africa, Spain, Island
  • Author: Duncan Green
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxfam Publishing
  • Abstract: At the time of independence in 1964 Zambia was a middle-income country and appeared set to develop into a prosperous nation. However, the combination of a tumultuous world economy and fiscal mismanagement led to rapid economic decline, which continued unabated into the 1980s and 1990s. Average economic growth from 1990–1999 was the lowest in the region, and unemployment and inflation soared resulting in per capita incomes 50% less in 1999 than they had been 25 years earlier.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Ronald R. Atkinson
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: This paper begins by providing the historical context for “Operation Lightning Thunder,” the Ugandan military's December 2008 incursion into neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo in pursuit of the northern Ugandan rebel group, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). The paper first presents (1) a historical background to the northern Uganda war that produced the LRA; (2) an overview of that war, which began in 1986; and (3) an analysis of the Juba peace process initiated in 2005 and its unraveling over the course of 2008.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, Armed Struggle
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Author: Rob de Wijk, David M Anderson
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Even though kidnappings, killings, attacks on UN and NGO compounds, suicide bombings, and the assassinations of local judges and other public figures, and the many other features of lawlessness in the Horn of Africa have become so commonplace that they are rarely now reported by European news media, from September 2008 Somalia once again dominated the news agenda. In that month pirates operating from small ports and harbours along Somalia's eastern coast mounted a series of successful attacks against international shipping, first capturing a Ukrainian vessel with its cargo of heavy armaments bound for southern Sudan (via the Kenyan port of Mombasa), and then intercepting a number of container ships before mounting an attack on a passenger vessel that was repelled by the crew. Finally, in November, the pirates landed the prize of a fully-laden Saudi-owned oil tanker. By the end of the year the pirate gangs operating out of Eyl, Haradheere and other harbours along the desolate eastern coast of Puntland, were reckoned to be holding no fewer than 40 vessels for ransom, with more than 200 crew members in captivity.
  • Topic: Crime, International Law, Maritime Commerce
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe, Somalia
  • Author: Emmanuel Viret
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: Dealing with the dynamics of rural violence under the multi-party transition (1991-1994), this paper suggests new points of view on the mobilization of Rwandan peasantry during the genocide (1994). Going through local archives and interviews held in the hills and in four prisons of the country, the analysis focuses on the increasing development of an economy of violence. The multi-party system incited competing rural elites to recruit a growing number of men and ruffians against other contenders in order to assure their access to power. Local elites (re)formed patron-client links previously dried by the spreading of money and wage incomes in the countryside. Particular attention is paid to the dimension of political entrepreneurship and to the relationship between social brokers and rural elites, in the course of the struggle between political parties as well as during the building of the Power coalitions which led the massacres locally.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Genocide
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Upon the invitation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, The Carter Center observed the country's May 15, 2005, elections for the national and regional parliaments. The May elections marked an historic event in the country, as Ethiopia witnessed its first genuinely competitive campaign period with multiple parties fielding strong candidates. Unfortunately, what began with a comparatively open period of campaigning and an orderly voting process on election day was followed by flawed counting and tabulation processes in many areas; repeated incidents of serious postelection violence, including the killing of many dozens of people during electoral protests; a significant delay in finalizing election results; and an ineffective complaints review and investigation processes. In spite of the positive pre-election developments, therefore, The Carter Center concludes that the 2005 electoral process did not fulfill Ethiopia's obligations to ensure the exercise of political rights and freedoms necessary for genuinely democratic elections.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Democratization, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ethiopia
  • Author: Eduardo Zepeda, Mohamed Chemingui, Hedi Bchir, Christopher Onyango, Bernadette Wanjala
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: As the first decade of the twenty- first century comes to an end, Kenya's economy is being confronted with a number of challenges that call for carefully crafted, well- informed policies. After fifteen years of stagnation—when the country witnessed zero increase in its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and investment at levels below 20 percent of GDP—it has risen to become one of Africa's fast growing economies (see Arbache and Page 2008). Between 2004 and 2007, Kenya's economy showed signs of revitalization, and the average annual growth rate climbed above 5 percent, allowing Kenyans to finally enjoy an increase in GDP per capita. However, the political turmoil of 2008 slowed growth, and the current global financial and economic crisis has made it difficult to return to high growth rates. Thus, Kenya now faces shrinking export markets, rising protectionist measures worldwide, and meager financial flows.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: Laurence Ammour
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: The Sahel, a vast belt of land covering nine million square kilometers and encompassing ten countries, has always been a transit area for constant flows of people, trade, finance and religious groups. For the past twenty years, organized crime has had ample opportunity to develop here, either by using traditional networks or by taking over areas where there is no state control. It is also a region afflicted by perennial crises and weakened states, notwithstanding its undeniable strategic importance arising from its natural resources: oil, gold, phosphates, diamonds, copper, iron, coal, nickel, zinc, bauxite, uranium, plutonium, manganese, cobalt, silver, chrome and precious timbers.
  • Topic: Crime, Economics, Natural Resources, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The shooting of President José Ramos-Horta in February 2008 underscored the urgency of addressing sources of conflict and violence in Timor-Leste. The unresolved displacement crisis is one of the important problems, both a consequence of past conflict and a potential source of future trouble. Nearly two years after the country descended into civil conflict in April 2006, more than 100,000 people remain displaced. Successive governments and their international partners have failed to bring about the conditions in which they might return home or to prevent further waves of displacements. The new government's national recovery strategy needs to be properly funded and accompanied by a number of other crucial elements, most significantly the creation of a fair and functioning land and property regime, an increase in overall housing stock, an end to the cycle of impunity and reform of the justice and security sectors.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Government, Humanitarian Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Jana Hönk, Nicole Kranz, Tanja A. Börzel, Adrienne Héritier
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Research Center (SFB) 700
  • Abstract: The engagement and influence of multinational business in the developing world and in countries in transition is often highly contested. With regard to their environmental impact, there has been ample evidence for business taking advantage of situations of weak environmental regulation and the devastating effects thereof. More recently, however, certain efforts to counteract such tendencies have emerged with voluntary standards in the context of transnational norms of corporate social responsibility. Our research takes a closer look at the interaction of such voluntary CSR norms and public regulation in countries with limited regulatory capacities. In fact, we ask a rather bold question: Do multinational businesses that are subscribing to international CSR norms also actively promote such standards in countries in which they operate? Looking at the situation of environmental governance in South Africa and taking the mining as well as the food beverage industry as examples, this paper seeks to answer two questions. First, are companies who have subscribed to voluntary environmental standards actually engaging in fostering collective environmental regulation and under which conditions? And second, if they do, which schemes of engagement prevail: do companies engage in fostering collective regulation rather via the state, private self-regulation or in forms of public-private co-regulation?
  • Topic: Development, Environment, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Megan Crowley, Devesh Kapur
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes a relatively neglected facet of the complex debate regarding human capital – higher (or tertiary) education. It addresses five broad questions examining higher education in developing countries. One, are the economic effects of higher education on developing countries different from those in industrialized countries, with its links with labor markets of lesser importance than its impact on institutional development? Two, how does the impact of higher education depend on the type of education and its beneficiaries? Three, with the state unable to meet growing demand pressures, what should be the proper role of the state to ensure not just quality but also equity and access? Four, how should countries rethink the provision of higher education in an “open economy” from seeking education abroad or encouraging foreign providers into the country or simply linking domestic institutions with foreign quality assurance mechanisms? And five, do new technologies offer developing countries a new paradigm to expand the provision of high quality but low cost higher education? The aim is not to provide categorical answers to these complex questions, but rather highlight the analytical and empirical lacuna with regard to each of these question.
  • Topic: Development, Education
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: David Wheeler
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: At the recent UN climate change conference in Bali, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for a revolutionary change in the world's energy mix to minimize the risk of catastrophic global heating. This paper explores the implications for the World Bank and other donor institutions, employing proposed Bank financing of the Mmamabula coal-fired power project in Botswana as an illustrative case. Using the latest estimates of generating costs for coal-fired and low-carbon power options, I compute the CO2 accounting charges that would promote switching to the low-carbon options. In all cases, I find that that the switching charges are at the low end of the range that is compatible with safe atmospheric limits on carbon loading. Among the low-carbon options that I have considered for Botswana, solar thermal power seems to dominate carbon capture and storage.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Satish Chand, Ruth Coffman
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: When can a donor (successfully) exit from an on-the -ground presence in a post-conflict state? The answer, according to the analysis presented here, is in decades: figures well beyond what was originally envisioned when peacekeeping troops were first deployed. In the specific cases of Liberia, Mozambique, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste considered here, the best case scenario for successful exit ranges from 15 to 27 years. Successful exit, for the purposes of this paper, entails the creation of the necessary fiscal space to fund the recurrent budget from internally generated revenues. This is a necessary, albeit, not sufficient condition for donor exit. Of essence, however, is the time rather than the dollar value of support provided. An extended donor presence, it is argued, provides the space for the creation, sustenance, and maturation of institutions that are finally able to undergird the state from rolling back into state failure on donor exit.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Development, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa, Asia, Liberia, Mozambique, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste
  • Author: Simon Turner
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In recent years there has been a revival of Islam in Zanzibar, with heated debates about the nature of Islam and its role in society (Lodhi and Westerlund 1997, Gilsaa 2006). While Islam played a central role in society until independence in 1963, it was effectively removed from the public sphere by the socialist government after independence. Since the 1980s, however, Islam has again become a central issue in the public sphere, albeit in new forms. Like elsewhere in Africa, local forms of Islam are being challenged by a number of new reformist and revivalist kinds of Islam, influenced to some degree by a global Islamic revival, but shaped by the particular, local histories and politics. This has caused some friction – especially as the regime in place seeks to manipulate these tensions for political benefit. However, as it will be argued in this paper, the kind of Islamic revival taking place in Zanzibar is far from radical or violent. In fact, Islamic revivalists often coin their critique of the state in terms of human rights and good governance and provide an alternative modernity that at once challenges and articulates with secular, liberal forms of modernity. Hence, the present paper explores how global trends in Islam – but also global discourses on Human Rights and Good Governance – influence the current modes of Islamic revival in Zanzibar.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Government, Human Rights, Islam
  • Political Geography: Africa, Zanzibar
  • Author: Freedy T. M. Kilima, Jeremiah Makindara, Evelyne Lazaro
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: One of the key trends characterizing agro-food trade in the last two decades has been the increas-ing complexity of public and private standards that are applied to imports into developed countries. This paper aims to identify critical areas to facilitate compliance with sustainability standards in coffee, which is the major traditional export crop for Tanzania. Coffee experienced a dramatic downward trend in world market prices that led to a decreased contribution to foreign exchange earnings in producing countries in the early 2000s. Although prices have improved over the past few years, economies that are dependent on traditional agricultural exports such as coffee need strategies to ensure stability in export earnings. One of the possible venues for increased agricultural export value is through exports to niche markets, such as coffee that is certified against one or more sustainability certifications (e.g. Fair Trade, Utz Certified, Organic, and Rainforest Alliance).
  • Topic: Agriculture, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Le risque d'une reprise des violences en Ituri est aujourd'hui limité du fait de la présence de la Mission des Nations unies (MONUC), du démantèlement de la plupart des groupes armés et de la lassitude de la population après des années de souffrance et de destructions. Cependant, les problèmes de fond à l'origine des violences extrêmes qu'a connu le district pendant la guerre – un accès équitable à la terre et une gestion transparente des revenus issus de l'exploitation des ressources naturelles et minières – restent entiers. L'absence de réconciliation intercommunautaire et l'impunité pour la grande majorité des crimes commis pendant la guerre sont également extrêmement inquiétants en perspective d'élections locales en 2009. Afin d'éviter toute reprise de la violence, dont les femmes seraient les premières à souffrir, les éléments fondamentaux d'une paix durable doivent être urgemment mis en place dans le cadre d'une stratégie intégrée impliquant les institutions nationales et provinciales avec le soutien actif de la MONUC et des bailleurs de fonds du Congo.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil War, Human Rights, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The 29 March 2008 elections have dramatically changed Zimbabwe's political landscape. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe ran second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. The MDC went to the polls deeply divided, but Morgan Tsvangirai and his party regained their authority by winning despite an uneven playing field. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a countrywide crackdown. Zimbabwe is in constitutional limbo: it has no elected president or legally constituted cabinet, parliament has not been convened, and ZANU-PF and the MDC are challenging half the parliamentary results in court. African leaders, with support from the wider international community, must step in to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by facilitating an agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government that avoids the need for the run-off now scheduled for 27 June.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Zimbabwe
  • Author: Miriam Prys
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: South Africa's “quiet diplomacy” has been often used to reject the notion of South African leadership or regional hegemony in southern Africa. This article finds that this evaluation is founded on a misguided understanding of regional hegemony, which is based on conventional hegemony theories that are mostly derived from the global role of the United States after World War II. Alternatively, this article uses a concept of hegemony that, for example, takes into account the “regionality” of South Africa's hegemony, which both allows external actors to impact on regional relations and allows South Africa to pursue its foreign policy goals on the global level of international politics. This concept helps to systemically analyze South Africa's foreign policy in the Zimbabwean crisis and to better integrate this policy into the broader framework of its regional and global ambitions.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, South Africa, Zimbabwe
  • Author: Esther K. Ishengoma, Robert Kappel
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Ugandan micro- and small enterprises (MSEs) still perform poorly. The paper utilizes data collected in Uganda in March and April 2003 to analyze the business constraints faced by these MSEs. Using a stratified random sampling, a sample of 265 MSEs were interviewed. The study focuses on the 105 manufacturing firms that responded to all questions. It examines the extent to which the growth of MSEs is associated with business constraints, while also controlling for owners' attributes and firms' characteristics. The results reveal that MSEs' growth potential is negatively affected by limited access to productive resources (finance and business services), by high taxes, and by lack of market access.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Publication Date: 06-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia's refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering terri­tory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ethiopia
  • Publication Date: 06-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Le changement politique et économique réclamé par la population guinéenne au prix de près de 200 morts en janvier-février 2007 est largement compromis. Le limogeage du Premier ministre Lansana Kouyaté le 20 mai 2008 et son remplacement par Tidiane Souaré, un proche du président Lansana Conté, risque de compromettre l'ensemble du processus de réforme. Les déclarations apaisantes du nouveau chef de gou- vernement en faveur de l'inclusion et de la poursuite du « changement » ne doivent pas faire illusion. Le gouvernement Souaré-Conté a toutes les chances de remettre en cause les promesses d'élections législati- ves crédibles en décembre 2008, de compromettre le redressement économique du pays et d'enterrer la commission d'enquête indépendante qui doit identifier et poursuivre les auteurs de la répression sanglante de janvier 2007. Plus que jamais, les acteurs de la société civile, les responsables des partis politiques, les auto- rités religieuses et tous ceux qui souhaitent le chan- gement doivent opposer un front uni à la restauration du pouvoir sans partage de Lansana Conté.
  • Topic: Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Government, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Rachid Tlemçani
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Algerians no longer live in fear of being killed by radical Islamists at faux barrages (makeshift roadblocks) or of being “disappeared” by “ninjas” — hooded police - men who break down front doors and take occupants away, never to return. This is a remarkable achievement in a country that during the 1990s was synonymous with horrendous violence perpetrated both by Islamist radicals and by security forces. Algeria has regained stability, with radical Islamism no longer a fundamental threat to security across the country. The virtual quarantine in which the country was confined during the mid-1990s has been lifted. It is also increasingly opening up to foreign investment. Algerians have enjoyed a period of peace and relative prosperity, despite occasional flare-ups of violence. During the presidency of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who took office in 1999, Algeria has transitioned from civil war, state failure, and moral decay to stability.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Civil War, Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Algeria
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Since 2003, the United Nations have passed nineteen Resolutions on Darfur, including Security Council Resolution 1706, the only instance in history of a UN peacekeeping mission that was authorized and failed to deploy. On July 31, 2007, Security Council Resolution 1769 again authorized a multinational UN-led peacekeeping force for Darfur – the “hybrid” African Union/United Nations operation termed UNAMID. UNAMID officially assumed control of peacekeeping operations in Darfur on December 31, 2007, however, its deployment is well behind the timetable laid out by the Security Council. Force Commander General Martin Agwai and UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guéhenno have continued to warn that unless 2008 sees a substantial change in international action, UNAMID risks succumbing to Khartoum's obstructionism and facing a similar aborted fate as its predecessor mission authorized by Resolution 1706.
  • Topic: United Nations, War
  • Political Geography: Africa