Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Africa

301. Governing climate mobility: Scoping study of two localities in Ghana

Author:: Joseph Teye, Francis Jarawura, Lily Salloum Lindegaard, Nauja Kleist, Marie Ladekjær Gravesen, Philip Mantey, and David Quaye
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change is expected by many to produce new and/or intensified mobility patterns, including migration and displacement. However, only limited research exists on the relationship between climate change and human mobility, specifically on the implications of increasingly intense slow-onset climate change, such as weather variability and extremes. This DIIS Working Paper provides initial data and analysis on climate, mobility and governance in Ghana as an input to the Governing Climate Mobility Research Programme. In parts of Ghana, temperature increases have now topped 1.5 ºC, weather patterns and seasons are shifting, and all of this is occurring on the backdrop of other environmental and agrarian changes. This paper documents such changes through multi-decadal analyses of temperatures and rainfall as well as vegetation change. However, it also links these changes, and how they are experienced locally, to existing governance and mobility dynamics in the programme’s case study areas in the Upper West Region and Eastern Region. For instance, the paper indicates how governance interventions, including failures, have affected agrarian livelihoods as seen in the deteriorating irrigation infrastructure in the Upper West Region, and how existing mobility patterns are linked to resource access and rural livelihoods. This working paper is a scoping study and therefore provides a detailed introduction to such environmental, socio-economic, governance and mobility dynamics in the study areas, as well as identifying key dynamics and possible linkages for further study. It builds on a previous GCM working paper that explores the historical linkages between climate, mobility and governance in Ghana.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Migration, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

302. Curbing intolerance of persons in same-sex relationships in Ghana: The important role of education

Author:: Daniel Armah-Attoh
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: This paper describes high levels of intolerance in Ghana toward persons in same-sex relationships, explores factors driving this intolerance, and makes some policy recommendations for increasing tolerance. Using 2014 Afrobarometer survey data, the descriptive analysis reveals that large majorities of Ghanaians reject persons in same-sex relationships as neighbours, co-workers, supervisors, and members of their religious group; would report them to the police; and would support criminalizing same-sex activity. Regression analysis shows that religion, religiosity, age, and rural residence are associated with higher intolerance, while education and mediated social contact measured by social media and Internet use are associated with reduced intolerance. Among these drivers of intolerance and tolerance, we argue that education is the main factor that lends itself to meaningful remedial policy interventions and recommend a number of formal and informal education and sensitization measures aimed at reducing Ghanaians’ intolerance of people of different sexual orientation or identity.
Topic:: Education, Gender Issues, Repression, Sexuality, and Tolerance
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

303. A Review of Sierra Leone’s Mines and Minerals Act

Author:: Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye, Perrine Toledano, and Sophie Thomashusen
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: With the support of Oxfam, the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment reviewed select provisions in the Mines and Minerals Act 2009 and corresponding policy statements from the Minerals Policy 2018 to provide recommendations for how to best align the anticipated new mining law with international best practice. The 2009 law was reviewed with a focus on the following topics: • Fiscal regime; • Climate change; • Access to and use of land; • Community consultations and participation; • Human rights; and • Community development agreements.
Topic:: Climate Change, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Mining, Land, Sustainability, and Community
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Sierra Leone

304. The Challenges of Governance, Development and Security in the Central Regions of Mali

Author:: Mamadou Bodian, Aurélien Tobie, and Myriam Marending
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Since 2015 Mali’s central regions of Mopti and Ségou have become insecure hotspots at the confluence of interconnected challenges in terms of governance, development and security. Although international interventions involving a full range of actors and sectors are being increasingly reoriented towards these regions, the sustainability of the responses depends on their ability to draw on the needs and priorities of local communities. This SIPRI Insights is based on a study that combines both quantitative and qualitative data to provide an evidence-based analysis of local perspectives in Mopti and Ségou. It highlights how the people there understand and respond to the governance, development and security challenges they face.
Topic:: Security, Development, Governance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Mali and Africa

305. Ethiopia’s Transition: Implications for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region

Author:: Jason Mosley
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. Ethiopia’s transition has affected its relations in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security since 2015, contributing to a major diplomatic rift with Qatar since 2017. Elucidating how states in the Horn of Africa are affected by and responding to external influences largely hinges on understanding the Ethiopian transition. The implications for the future of regional integration in the Horn of Africa must also be considered.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa

306. Civil War in the Horn of Africa?: Four Possible Trajectories for Ethiopia

Author:: James Barnett
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: A civil war is erupting in Ethiopia—Africa’s second most populous state, a geopolitical fulcrum in the volatile Red Sea arena, and the seat of the African Union (AU). The question now is whether a ceasefire can quickly be brokered that would, in the best case, serve as the basis for a broader national dialogue aimed at stabilizing the country’s political transition; or whether the situation will devolve into a multisided conflict that draws in neighboring states and further destabilizes what is already one of the world’s most fragile regions. As of this writing, the latter unfortunately seems more likely, but there is still hope for a ceasefire, particularly if Ethiopia’s regional and international partners make a concerted push for de-escalation. One should not use the term “civil war” lightly, but this appears to be the course that Ethiopia is on. While in recent years the country has suffered from intercommunal clashes, assassinations, a coup attempt, and a low-level insurgency, this is the first time that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has faced a direct challenge from a well-armed state within the state. The stakes are high. With a population of over 100 million, the United States Institute of Peace’s senior study group on the Red Sea warns that Ethiopia’s disintegration would constitute “the largest state collapse in modern history.”
Topic:: International Relations, Civil War, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Horn of Africa

307. The Origins of Boko Haram—And Why It Matters

Author:: Audu Bulama Bukarti
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Nigeria’s population of an estimated 200 million people is plagued by an alarming level of violence, which is driven by a toxic mix of brutal extremist groups, criminal gangs and a cropland crisis. These feed into one another, and each is little understood. A key player in the present carnage is Boko Haram, a notorious organization which claims to fight in defense of Islam. Over the last decade from 2009-2019, Boko Haram has waged a campaign of mass violence and wrought havoc in Africa’s Lake Chad region, which comprises northern Nigeria, southeastern Niger, far-northern Cameroon and western Chad. The Boko Haram movement has killed a conservative estimate of 18,000 people, displaced millions, and caused a large-scale humanitarian crisis. In 2014, it was recorded as the world’s deadliest terror group, killing 6,600 in that year alone. Boko Haram is particularly notorious for its violence against children. Indeed, the movement was first catapulted into the attention of western media in April 2014 by its kidnapping of 276 girls from their school dormitory in Chibok village, north-eastern Nigeria. It uses girls as sexual and domestic slaves and as human bombs, targeting civilian locations including markets, hospitals, IDP camps and places of worship. It has also conscripted thousands of boys into its army and forces them to kill in order to keep themselves alive. Boko Haram has established itself as a formidable force and, judging from security force fatalities of 750 in 2019 which is the highest since the violence began, it now appears to be stronger than ever.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Islamism, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

308. The “Central African” Jihad: Islamism and Nation-Building in Mozambique and Uganda

Author:: James Barnett
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The Islamic State (IS) has not scored many propaganda victories in the year since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed by U.S. forces in Idlib, which makes the recent seizure of a Mozambican port by IS-linked jihadists all the more significant. On August 12, 2020, militants seized Mocímboa da Praia in the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province from a demoralized Mozambican army running low on ammunition. This assault on a city of 30,000—the militants’ third and most successful this year 1—marked a notable evolution in an insurgency that began three years ago and was initially characterized by crude and sporadic attacks on villages in the northern province. IS media channels were quick to produce triumphalist statements about the operation, which it attributed to soldiers in its newest affiliate, the Central Africa Province (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiya or ISCAP).
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, History, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, and Central African Republic

309. Energy Poverty in Zambia

Author:: Bernard Tembo, Rabecca Hatoongo-Masenke, and Chama Bowa-Mundia
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: Of the estimated 3.01 million households in Zambia, in 2015, only 35.8% and 16.1% utilised clean energy fuels for their lighting and cooking services respectively1 (CSO, 2016). Usage and access to clean energy is essential for economic growth, human development and more generally poverty reduction. This notwithstanding, access has remained low in many developing countries. For instance, 1.1 billion of the total global population do not have access to electricity, of which majority are found in Asia, Africa and Oceania (United Nations, 2016). Furthermore, the majority of this population is found in rural areas. Given the centrality of energy to people's everyday life, governments worldwide have devised dierent policies and mechanisms to enhance the use of clean energy. Limited access and use of clean energy is mainly thought of as an issue of aordability (Barnes and Floor, 1996; Pachauri et al., 2004; Rosnes and Vennemo, 2012; Murtaza and Faridi, 2014; Ismail and Khembo, 2015; GRZ, 2017; Venkateswaran et al., 2018; Kyprianou et al., 2019; Oum, 2019; Yan et al., 2019). Hence, the subsidy policies being implemented in many countries. On the one hand, it has been observed that lack of access to clean energy is a sign of poverty; while on the other hand, access to clean energy helps in the alleviation of poverty (Pachauri et al., 2004; Nussbaumer et al., 2011; Okwanya and Abah, 2018). However, in some cases, access to clean energy is hampered by both the price of the energy (i.e. an aordability issue) and by availability of infrastructure to deliver the required energy. Thus, in such situations, some governments have had to borrow to facilitate the development and expansion of energy infrastructure; on top of subsidising the use of clean energy. This notwithstanding, the lack of use of clean energy at household level is not well understood. For instance, it is thought that if a household is classied as income poor, then it will not be able to use electricity (Pachauri et al., 2004; Murtaza and Faridi, 2014). And in such cases, some governments opt to implement subsidy policies. While this approach has proved useful for some households, it is not an eective approach of delivering clean energy to the people who need it the most. There is, therefore, great need to identify aspects that determine whether a household would have access to clean energy and let alone use it. This knowledge would be critical in designing policies that hope to increase utilisation of clean energy fuels. As such, this paper sought to understand energy poverty among households in Zambia. Energy poverty is a concept concerned with lack of access and use of modern energy fuels.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Poverty, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

310. An Analysis of the Legal Framework for Public Debt Management in Zambia

Author:: Florence Banda-Muleya, Mbewe Kalikeka, Zambwe Shingwele, Philip Ngongo, and Shebo Nalishebo
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: Zambia’s current legal framework for public debt management is inadequate. The high level of external debt standing at US$11.2 billion and domestic debt at K80.2 billion due to fast pace of debt contraction; the resulting heightened risk of debt distress; and the weak implementation of the 2017-2019 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS), raise questions on the adequacy of the laws that govern public debt management. Now more than ever, with Zambia quickly headed to its first bullet repayment on its Eurobond debt, the country needs to enhance its legal framework on Public Debt Management (PDM).
Topic:: Debt, Government, Economy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

311. Post-workshop Briefing Paper: Preventing a COVID-19 Crisis in Africa

Author:: Atif Choudhury, Yawei Liu, and Ian Pilcher
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: In May 2020, the Carter Center’s China Program partnered with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) and the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) to organize a virtual workshop on Africa-U.S.-China cooperation on COVID-19 response. The workshop brought together a range of experts from the U.S, China, Ethiopia, Burundi, Kenya, and South Africa to discuss the public health impact and wider policy implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent. Emory University’s Global Health Institute and The Hunger Project also helped identify speakers and moderate panels.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, United States, China, Asia, South Africa, North America, Ethiopia, and Burundi

312. Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa

Author:: Ulrich J. Eberle, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the impact of climate shocks on violence between herders and farmers by using geolocalized data on conflict events for all African countries over the 1997-2014 period. We find that a +1℃ increase in temperature leads to a +54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders, compared to +17% increase in non-mixed areas. This result is robust to controlling for the interaction between temperature and ethnic polarization, alternative estimation techniques, disaggregation levels, and coding options of the climatic/conflict/ethnic variables. When quantifying at the continental level the impact on conflict of projected climate change in 2040, we find that, in absence of mixed population areas, global warming is predicted to increase total annual conflicts by about a quarter in whole Africa; when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements, total annual conflicts are predicted to rise by as much as a third. We also provide two pieces of evidence that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence. Firstly, conflicts are much more prevalent at the fringe between rangeland and farmland - a geographic buffer of mixed usage that is suitable for both cattle herding and farming but is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Secondly, information on groups' mobility reveals that temperature spikes in the ethnic homeland of a nomadic group tend to diffuse its fighting operations outside its homeland, with a magnified spatial spread in the case of conflicts over resources. Finally, we show that violence is substantially reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory democracy, enforce property rights and regulate land dispute resolution.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Conflict, Violence, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa

313. Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa

Author:: Wendy Kessman and Tahila Pimental
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Other Foundation
Abstract:: The role that families play in advocating for the human rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) people in communities in southern Africa has not received as much attention as it deserves. Our new publication is called Roots, because of the powerful comments from some of the parents of LGBTI people that their LGBTI children are “from the same tree branch” as them, and because families enable LGBTI people to find an authentic “sense of belonging that is true to their roots.” The paper Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa, reports on the experiences of LGBTI people and their families in Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. It highlights the role that the involvement of parents and families can play in the advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in our region including suggestions on ways to empower families to promote LGBTI acceptance in their homes, communities, and countries. For LGBTI people, the family can be the first place of rejection and damaging homophobia, transphobia and interphobia. Yet families can also be the best form of love and support that an LGBTI person can receive. Even initially hostile family members can grow to accept their LGBTI children, grandchildren and siblings. It may take time, emotional labour, vulnerability and courage for parents and family to accept their LGBTI child, however once parents and the family accept a LGBTI child, wanting the state to do the same is a natural next step.
Topic:: Discrimination, LGBT+, Family, Parenting, Homophobia, Transphobia, and Interphobia
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, and Botswana

314. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:

Author:: Emadeddin Badi
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

315. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa

Author:: Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
Topic:: Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

316. Conflict and Cooperation in the Eastern Nile: The Role of Business

Author:: Rawia Tawfik
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The discussion of the role of business in resource-based conflicts in Afri- ca in general and the Nile basin in particular, has been dominated by two approaches. The first approach emphasizes the role of business in exacer- bating domestic and transboundary conflicts by engaging in land and wa- ter grabs.1 In the Nile basin, large-scale land acquisitions by foreign cor- porations have often been considered as a means of exploiting land and water resources, and a factor that increases uncertainty and complexity in hydropolitical relations in the basin.2 This investigation of foreign invest- ments can be linked to a broader literature on promoting good governance of natural resources. This literature focuses on increasing transparency and accountability of all stakeholders, including non-state actors involved in the use of natural resources and ensuring the sustainable management of these resources.3 In contrast, the second approach, which focuses more on transboundary business cooperation, argues that economic cooperation, not only between state actors, but also between corporations could de-escalate conflicts over shared water resources. According to this approach, the private sector can act as ‘an agent of change’ by creating shared interests across borders and engaging in confidence-building activities.4 International organizations and funding institutions have supported multi-stakeholder forums to strength- en transnational cooperation between non-state actors and pushed for public-private partnerships to implement projects at transboundary levels.5 In the Nile basin, inter-riparian investments have been suggested as a po- tential means of reducing tensions through trading virtual water (i.e. the volume of water used in the production of commodities, goods, or services) from water-rich upstream countries, especially Ethiopia to water-scarce downstream countries, especially Egypt.6 It has been suggested that the more Egypt invests in upstream countries (and Sudan) for domestic agri- cultural production, the less likely it would resort to military means against these countries to secure access to the Nile waters to feed its own popula- tion. This assumption indicates that while inter-riparian investments may increase conflict within receiving countries, it may reduce conflicts between these countries.7 This paper contributes to this debate by examining the actual roles played by Egyptian businesses in the hydro-political and hydro-economic relations between the three Eastern Nile countries and the factors that affect these roles. It argues that the two approaches criticizing business's contribution to conflict or applauding its contribution to cooperation have not adequately captured the complexity and variety of roles played by business. It also does not adequately summarize the possible contradictory impacts of these roles on conflict and cooperation between riparian states. These approaches also downplay the impact of state-business relations and of the basin context, especially the history of hydro-political relations, on these roles. The paper will also address four main questions: what are the motivations of Egyptian businesses investing in Ethiopia and Sudan? To what extent do tensions over the utilization of the Nile waters factor into risk assessment of investments in the two countries? What roles do Egyptian public and pri- vate corporations play in promoting economic cooperation and reducing the potential of conflict, or increasing tensions between Egypt on the one hand, and Ethiopia and Sudan on the other hand? What factors affect these roles and how? And how can the business community better contribute to reduc- ing tensions over the utilization of water resources and promoting wider economic cooperation between Eastern Nile countries?
Topic:: Privatization, Water, Business, Conflict, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

317. ECOWAS Mediation in Togo's 2017/2018 Political Crisis: Feats, Deadlocks, and Lessons

Author:: Brown Odigie
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: On August 18, 2017, opposition1 figures in the Republic of Togo, a member-state of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), took to the streets to protest the continued rule of Faure Gnassingbé, the incum- bent president of the country who has spent 14 years in power. They demand- ed constitutional reforms, and in particular, a return to the 1992 constitu- tion, which would, bring back a constitutional provision limiting presidential tenure to two-terms of five years only. Other reforms demanded included a demand for a two-round system2 for presidential elections, reform of elec- toral laws and the election management body, review of the voters’ register, as well as voting rights for Togolese nationals in the diaspora. In a quick progression of events, the protesters made additional demands including one for an immediate end3 to the regime of Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has been accused of institutionalizing dynastic rule starting with his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who ruled the country from 1967 till his death in of- fice on February 5, 2005. For several months, on regular intervals, leaders of the opposition and civil society groups mobilized different social groups including youths and women to continue to make these demands on the government. occasionally in violent demonstrations that led to public disor- der, looting ofOccasionally these protests degenerated into violent demon- strations that led to public disorder, looting of private and public goods, and loss of lives. The initial reaction of the government was to crack down on the protesters, using state apparatuses of force to shut down the internet, which was crucial for mobilization, arresting4 a number of activists on the streets of Lomé, the country's capital. The protests, however, continued as protesters were undeterred,5 and soon spread to the country’s second larg- est city of Sokodé in the central region. Following persistent demonstra- tions and calls by the international community, notably, ECOWAS, France, the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the African Union Commission (AUC) for an immediate dialogue in resolving the impasses, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé finally accepted to dialogue and negotiate with the opposition. Leveraging on a preventive diplomacy conceptual framework of analysis, this paper highlights the nuances and the herculean task of mediating po- litical conflicts by regional organizations such as ECOWAS. It does so es- pecially in relation to preventing protests from escalating into violent con- flict, navigating deadlocks, and achieving concessions on important political and constitutional matters that might alter the existing power equation. It analyses the spate of criticism that trailed ECOWAS’ mediation of the cri- sis during a period the Togolese president, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé, was the Chair of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS (June 2017 to July 2018) as well as the efforts to maintain impartiality by the Fa- cilitators appointed by ECOWAS to assist the government and opposition stakeholders to negotiate a political settlement and implement constitu- tional reforms. The paper also raises questions about the rationality of the decision of the coalition of fourteen opposition parties (C14) to boycott the December 20, 2018 legislative elections, noting that the election boycott hardly achieved its intended purpose of delegitimizing the government. It, however, com- mends the ability of the opposition to learn key lessons from the boycott, and emphasizes the imperative for both the government and the opposition parties to continue exploring avenues for inclusive dialogue in addressing unresolved contentious issues, not only with respect to the immediate 2020 presidential elections, but more importantly, efforts at expanding the polit- ical and civic space and strengthening the role of civil society organizations in democratic processes in the country. The paper concludes by extolling the steadiness and the resilience of West African citizens in demanding for, and, or defending constitutional provisions that limit presidential tenures. It also notes that such vigilance and resilience are needed if democratic cul- ture and good governance are to be deepened in the region.
Topic:: Civil Society, Diplomacy, Governance, Peace, Mediation, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Togo

318. Contemporary Investigations on Academic Freedom and Conflict in Africa: A Metaphorical Linguistic Analysis

Author:: Abdul Karim Bangura
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: That transgression against academic freedom is a major human fault line that leads to conflict in Africa is hardly a matter of dispute. Yet, this topic has not received its deserved attention in the study of peace and conflict on the continent. By arguing that one factor that is employed to contravene academic freedom in Africa comprises the metaphors that are employed in discussing the issue, this paper offers a linguistic analysis of the metaphors that have appeared in contemporary works on the topic, beginning with the one commissioned by CODESRIA, edited by Mamadou Diouf and Mah- moud Mamdani, and published in 1993 to that written by John Higgins and published in 2014. This is essential because metaphors are not just “more picturesque speech.” The power of metaphors hinges upon their ability to assimilate new experiences so as to allow the newer and abstract domain of experience to be understood in terms of the former and more concrete, and to serve as a basis and justification for policy making. We should there- fore be horrified by the metaphors that have become the currency in our discourses within the academy, as some of these lead to the loss of lives, employment, gender equity, benefits, prestige, etc.
Topic:: Linguistics, Academia, Domestic Policy, and Free Speech
Political Geography:: Africa

319. Youth Patronage: Violence, Intimidation, and Political Mobilization in Zimbabwe

Author:: Godfrey Maringira and Simbarashe Gukurume
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The Zimbabwean political terrain has been inundated with deep seated youth violence and neopatrimonial politics, mediated through Pres- ident Robert Mugabe and his political party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and its patronage networks. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork research with youth in Harare, this paper focuses on the dynamics of youth patronage and violence as a tool of political mobiliza- tion by ZANU-PF in urban spaces. This paper shows that one of the remark- able ways in which Mugabe has been able to remain in power is through his ability to transform his political position into a source of opportunities for his political clients. It examines the ways in which Mugabe’s political party mobilizes political violence in return for political benefits within the city of Harare. We examine this political patronage system and the ways in which it influences the ordinary lives of youth in the city. We argue that Mugabe should be construed as a political ‘Big Man’ patron with a huge network of political clients, the youth included. We show how ZANU-PF creates paral- lel structures that mediate the exchange of resources in return for political loyalty and mobilization of violence by ZANU-PF against its real or perceived political nemesis.
Topic:: Youth, Violence, Political Parties, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

320. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Author:: Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

321. Regional Developmentalism in West Africa: The Case for Commodity-Based Industrialisation through Regional Cooperation in the Cocoa-Chocolate Sector

Author:: Jonathan Bashi Rudahindwa and Sophie van Huellen
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Regional integration occupies a prominent place in the economic policies of most Sub- Saharan African countries. However, despite different waves of initiatives across the African continent, the majority of African regional schemes have not managed to achieve their ambitious goal of promoting sustainable development through trade integration in Africa. In light of this observation, using the West African cocoa- chocolate sector as a case study, we propose the regional developmentalism paradigm as an alternative approach to regionalism in Africa, placing a particular emphasis on the use of regional and sub-regional approaches to development. Instead of full-fledged trade liberalisation and indiscriminate economic integration, the regional developmentalism paradigm advocates for state-led trade facilitation, regulatory convergence and capacity-building through the adoption of policies directed at strategic sectors. We evaluate the potential of the regional developmentalism paradigm to promote economic transformation and commodity-based industrialisation against the shortcomings of the current regional integration approach embodied in the institutional framework of ECOWAS.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Commodities, Regionalism, and Industrialization
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

322. Paris, Algiers Concerned over Mali’s Transitional Regime

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses the regional and international challenges facing Mali's new transitional government, and its precarious security situation. Can Mali’s new government regain territorial control and restore personal security? For the past four months, Mali has been governed by a transition government that was set up after a military coup d’état in the summer of 2020. The international community initially condemned the coup, but it has since been forced to accept this reality, and has been encouraging Mali’s military and the transition government to advance the implementation of the 2015 Algiers peace accords. Yet actions taken so far by the military and the new regime do not bode well for the future of the country, and are showing signs of weakness vis-à-vis a multitude of armed groups, including several jihadi militant organizations.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali

323. Democratic Change and Urbanisation in the Aftermath of the Arab Revolts: Euro-Mediterranean Cultural Cooperation in Local Urban Development in Morocco and Tunisia

Author:: Hannah Abdullah
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The so-called “Arab Spring” of 2011 emerged from societies that had been suffering the negative consequences of rapid and unplanned urbanisation for over two decades. The political and socioeconomic discontent that spurred the revolts was closely related to the increase in urban poverty and high levels of inequality that came with these developments. In its response to the Arab revolts, the European Union (EU) only engaged marginally with their urban causes, and above all from a technical rather than political perspective. This focus on technical urban solutions was in line with the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) South and its prioritisation of security and stabilisation concerns over democracy promotion. This article analyses how Euro-Mediterranean cultural cooperation programmes, which form an integral part of the EU’s civil society agenda in the region, was an exception by offering a more political response to the urban discontent that spurred the revolts. The focus is on a programme that supported civil society organizations (CSOs) in Tunisia and Morocco in their effort to assert their “right to the city” by formulating cultural solutions to promote democratic and sustainable local urban development. The article examines how the programme sought to strike a balance between the ENP’s stabilisation and democratisation concerns by fostering collaborative relations between CSOs and public authorities, especially at local level. While the two country case studies are not reflective of EU cultural relations with the region as a whole, the analysis points towards possible ways in which cultural cooperation can engage with the complex relationship between democratic change and urbanisation, and how CSOs can become effective partners in this endeavour. At a more theoretical level, the article examines what role the EU’s strategy for cultural relations has played in its wider civil society agenda in the Southern Neighbourhood, and how urban issues have featured in this overlapping policy space.
Topic:: Culture, Social Movement, Urbanization, Democracy, Inequality, Arab Spring, and Urban
Political Geography:: Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia

324. How Tunisia’s En-Nahda crafts Islamist politics: From programmatic failure to neo-Islamist framing

Author:: Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: En-Nahda’s participation in Tunisia’s post-revolutionary politics triggered an adaptive process, refecting a transition from theoretical elaborations to political practice. Switching from clandestine regime opposition to engagement in an emerging pluralistic system also puts to the test the grand narrative that defnes the movement’s rationale and intends to captivate the party’s potential constituency. After fve years in the game, assuming a tainted Islamist label and somehow acknowl- edging programmatic failure, the party’s leadership proposed a neo-Islamist framing, ‘Muslim democracy’, in 2016. Tis semantic operation aims to fuse two schools of thought, a confessional and a political one, with historically distinct governance systems and polit- ical cultures. Hence, despite this twist in rhetoric, a major challenge for En-Nahda remains the rec- onciliation of its utilitarian take on democratic procedures with its deep-rooted reference to Islamic principles. Yet while continuing to stress its readiness for concessions, suppos- edly in order to save Tunisia’s democratic transition, En-Nahda’s political programme, practice and narrative remain fawed, fuid and unconvincing respectively, eroding its credibility and incrementally reducing its mobilisation capacity.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Democracy, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

325. Decentralisation: The Search for New Development Solutions in the Arab World’s Peripheries

Author:: Intissar Kherigi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: An account of the Arab uprisings of the last decade would be incomplete without an understanding of regional inequalities. While each country’s protests were driven by a distinct combination of grievances, a common factor has been the marginalisation of “peripheries”. The Sidi Bouzid region of Tunisia from which the Arab Spring started is a region rich in agricultural resources yet poor in infrastructure and economic opportunities. Its connection rate to running water is half the national average. A similar story can be seen across the flashpoints of unrest in the Arab world, a story of widening urban-rural divides, uneven regional development and political and economic exclusion of entire regions. Can decentralisation address these grievances? Since the 1980s, decentralisation has been championed as a driver for both democratisation and development, promising to empower regions, granting them political representation and enabling them to create their own economic strategies. However, a key fear among many, from politicians and bureaucrats to ordinary citizens, is that decentralisation is a means for the central state to withdraw from its traditional functions and transfer responsibility for service provision to under-resourced and over-burdened local government. Yet, the demands for freedom, dignity and social justice voiced by the Arab uprisings require the central state to be more present in peripheries, not less. Can decentralisation help achieve greater local development in peripheral regions without allowing the central state to withdraw from its obligations to citizens? Is it even possible to envisage new forms of local development within the framework of highly centralised Arab states? How can Arab states reconfigure their relations with local communities in the context of severe political and economic crises? This article explores these questions in the Tunisian context, where a major decentralisation process is taking place in response to demands for inclusion and development. It argues that in order to produce new modes of local development in peripheries, central state institutions need to fundamentally reform the way they function.
Topic:: Inequality, Arab Spring, Decentralization, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis

326. What Has Changed in Policing since the Arab Uprisings of 2011? Surveying Policing Concepts and Modes of Contestation

Author:: Alex Walsh
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The 2011 Egyptian protests started in earnest nine years ago on National Police Day on 25 January, a holiday that Hosni Mubarak had introduced to commemorate Egyptian police officers killed and wounded by British colonial forces in 1952. Protesters upended the original meaning of the holiday to turn it into a symbol of police brutality and corruption under Mubarak. In the drama of the 18 days that followed, Egypt’s internal security apparatus fought the protesters in the streets, delivering one shocking provocation after another, galvanizing the protest movement and ultimately contributing to the removal of Mubarak. Since 2011, the police and internal security forces of many countries in the Arab world have been at the centre of the conflicts and struggles that shape the region for better and for worse. Recent and ongoing encounters between protestors and police in the streets of Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria and Sudan are a stark reminder that the police are more than just a proxy target for a protestation of the state. They are also the object of much anger both as a grouping, and in terms of the concept of policing and social control they embody. The impact of this sustained contestation of police behaviour and doctrine in the region deserves reflection. Has the police and policing changed in the Arab world? And if so, in what ways? This paper maps out some of the main modes in which the police and policing have been contested since 2011, and provides a preliminary assessment of its impact. It argues that mass mobilised contestation has only been successful in the instance where institutional reform followed. It notes that hybridisation of policing – where informal security actors cooperate and challenge formal security actors – has spread in many countries but that the concept of state security – with its emphasis on the state over citizens – continues to prevail across the region. Indeed, almost a decade after that fateful 25 January 2011, many of the aspirations of citizens protesting the police are far from realised, even while there are some promising developments.
Topic:: Protests, Repression, Police, and Police State
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Egypt, and Cairo

327. Threat from African Militant Islamist Groups Expanding, Diversifying

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Militant Islamist groups in Africa set a record pace of activity in 2019, reflecting a doubling of militant Islamist activity from 2013. Expanded activity in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin underscores diversification of threat from Somalia.
Topic:: United Nations, Violent Extremism, ISIS, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Mozambique, Somalia, Sahel, and Lake Chad Basin

328. Local Activism in post-2011 Egypt

Author:: Nadine Abdalla
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Various forms of local activism in Egypt are challenging the shortcomings in local governance and the lack of any developmental urban vision. This paper examines three examples from different neighbourhoods in Giza and Cairo. All three share the goal of resisting exclusionary policies while trying to overcome the absence of political means to register their frustrations given the absence of local councils since 2011.
Topic:: Social Movement, Arab Spring, Urban, and Local
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Egypt, Cairo, and Giza

329. EUROPEAN INTERESTS AND EXTERNAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY OF THE EU TOWARD EGYPT

Author:: Defne Günay
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: According to the International Panel on Climate Change, climate change will affect the rivers leading to the Mediterranean, desertification will increase, rise in sea level will affect coastal settlements, and crop productivity will decrease in the region. Therefore, climate change is an important issue for the Mediterranean region. The European Union (EU) is a frontrunner in climate change policy, committing itself to a decarbonized economy by 2050. The EU also promotes climate action in the world through its climate diplomacy. Such EU action in promoting the norm of climate action can be explained with reference to EU’s economic interests. In this paper, I analyse whether the EU serves its economic interests by promoting climate action in its neighbourhood policy towards Egypt. Based on documentary analysis, this paper argues that European companies benefitted from the market-based solutions adopted by the Kyoto Protocol in Egypt, exported renewable energy technologies to Egypt and face a level-playing field in terms of regulations promoted for them by the EU in Egypt.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Regulation, Economy, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Egypt, and Mediterranean

330. Paulo Freire and Popular Struggle in South Africa

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The ideas of the radical Brazilian educationalist Paulo Freire had a profound impact on popular struggles in South Africa. Initially taken up by Steve Biko and others in the Black Consciousness movement in the early 1970s, Freire’s ideas spread to the trade union movement and to the community movements. Today, Freire’s ideas continue to be used in progressive organisations in South Africa and to guide the work of many people undertaking political education work.
Topic:: Education, Politics, Radicalization, Community, and Black Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

331. ‘The Politic of Blood’: Political Repression in South Africa

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In South Africa, grassroots activists talk of ‘the politic of blood’, referring to ongoing assassinations and other forms of repression. This dossier shows how grassroots activists and trade unionists have been subjected to ongoing repression by the state, beginning under apartheid and continuing under the rule of the African National Congress (ANC), much of which has never been fully acknowledged outside of activist circles.
Topic:: Repression, Political Participation, Activim, and Grassroots Organizing
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

332. The Economic Benefits of Vocational Education and Training in the Kingdom of Eswatini

Author:: Gugulethu Mgabhi and Mangaliso Mohammed
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:: This study assesses the economic benefits of the Government of Eswatini’s investment to technical vocational education and training (TVET) from 2005 to 2017. TVET Graduates from 12 public TVET Institutions have been tracked to uncover their absorbability in the labour market and, or self-employment. The study finds that the economic return of the Government of Eswatini’s investment to TVET in 2017 is E1,51. This means that for every E1 invested by the Government of Eswatini to TVET, the economy generates E1,51 through the TVET graduates’ activities in self-employment, formal employment, and part-time skills utilisation. With regards to highly demanded courses amongst the graduates, ccomputer studies have been found to be highly demanded at 20.9%, while agriculture is lowly demanded at 6.3%. The study finds that 56.6% of the graduates are absorbed in formal employment, while 13.7% are engaged in self-employment, meaning that 29.9% are part of the 32.4% unemployed persons in the country. However, the level of unemployment is still high, 43.3%. Graduates who were not economically active before enrolling at the TVET colleges have been found to be formally employed, 35%, 14% are self-employed, 2.5% are both formally and self-employed, while 48.5% are unemployed. A majority (58.5%) of employed graduates are from Gwamile VOCTIM, while self-employment is high amongst graduates from Big Bend Rural Education Centre, 44.4%. Unemployment has been found to be very high among graduates from Ekululameni, 100%. The study recommends that the Government of Eswatini should consider promoting self-employment amongst graduates. This could be done through establishing links with financing agencies to increase the rate of self-employment and reduce unemployment.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Governance, Training, Vocational Training, and Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and Eswatini

333. Dubai Property: An Oasis for Nigeria’s Corrupt Political Elites

Author:: Matthew Page
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: For politically exposed persons (PEPs) with ill-gotten wealth, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an alluring destination for investing their gains. Although certainly not the only place to stash money, Dubai—dubbed the commercial capital of the Middle East—exercises minimal oversight and has few legal or logistical obstacles to transferring large amounts of cash or purchasing property. PEPs, defined as individuals who are or have been entrusted with a prominent public function, are at higher risk of involvement in unlawful activity due to their positions of influence and access to assets.1 In some cases, government officials and associates who succumb to the temptation become front-page news, but in many other cases, their activities go undetected or uncorroborated, despite the efforts of local authorities and intergovernmental bodies such as the Financial Action Task Force. As a result, billions of dollars are siphoned away to the detriment of both prosperous and struggling economies and societies. The case of Nigeria—home to Africa’s largest economy and the world’s seventh most populous country—offers valuable insights into this phenomenon.2 For Nigerian PEPs in particular, Dubai is an accessible oasis far away from the political drama in their capital, Abuja, or the hustle and bustle of their biggest city, Lagos. But a dearth of specific information about Nigerian PEPs’ property in Dubai has long precluded a deeper analysis of the share of illicit financial outflows from Nigeria; that is, until 2016, when the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (now known as C4ADS) acquired the data of a private database of Dubai real estate information (dubbed the “Sandcastles” data). At least 800 properties were found to have links to Nigerian PEPs or their family members, associates, and suspected proxies. With such information and continued monitoring, Nigerian and Emirati authorities and national and international actors could ramp up their scrutiny on high-end property transactions involving Nigerian elites to ensure that these purchases are not being made with pilfered public funds. The two countries could also deepen bilateral law enforcement cooperation by sharing information and assisting investigations more responsively and routinely. For their part, Western governments, the United Nations, and other international organizations could press the UAE to make its property and corporate records more transparent.
Topic:: Corruption, Economy, Financial Crimes, Elites, and Property
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, Dubai, and Gulf Nations

334. Breaking the Cycle of Gender Exclusion in Political Party Development

Author:: Saskia Brechenmacher and Caroline Hubbard
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Political parties around the world face a crisis in public confidence. Many citizens view them as inaccessible and unresponsive to their concerns. Parties pose specific challenges for women, who face both formal and informal barriers to participation, including opaque nomination procedures, violence, and parties with hypermasculine cultures. The formation of new parties during periods of political transition represents a potential opportunity to break these patterns. Transitions can be openings to transform the broader political, legal, and social barriers to an inclusive kind of politics. In these moments of flux, the development of new party branches and rules, as well as the renegotiation of broader institutional frameworks, can enable women and other marginalized groups to push for greater political representation within party structures. What factors influence the level of gender inclusion in processes of party development? This question is central for policymakers, advocates, and practitioners seeking to support inclusive democracy and gender equality in transitional societies and beyond. To shed light on this topic, this study investigates gender inclusion in three types of party formation that commonly unfold during political transitions: a social movement to a party (as exemplified by Ennahda in Tunisia); an armed movement to a party (as illustrated by the African National Congress [ANC] in South Africa); and a dominant party to a breakaway party (as shown by the Mouvement du Peuple pour le Progrès [MPP] in Burkina Faso).
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Burkina Faso

335. New Directions in Mining Governance and the Sustainable Development Goals in Africa

Author:: Sara Ghebremusse
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Despite Africa's wealth of natural resources, millions of its people live in extreme poverty. Effective mining governance can help Africa address this imbalance by achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 (to end poverty) and SDG 8 (to create sustainable economic growth and decent work for all). Reforms aimed at generating more revenue for national governments to address poverty and building new partnerships between public and private sectors to promote economic growth and boost employment can help achieve these goals.
Topic:: Poverty, United Nations, Natural Resources, Employment, Sustainable Development Goals, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Africa

336. Why Do People Migrate Irregularly? Evidence From a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in West Africa

Author:: Tijan L. Bah and Catia Batista
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Irregular migration to Europe by sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many sub-Saharan Africans. This study examines the determinants of irregular migration from West Africa to Europe. We implemented an incentivized lab-in-thefield experiment in rural Gambia, the country with the region’s highest rate of irregular migration to Europe. Male youths aged 15 to 25 were given hypothetical scenarios regarding the probability of dying en route to Europe and of gaining legal residence status after successful arrival. According to the data we collected, potential migrants overestimate both the risk of dying en route to Europe and the probability of obtaining legal residency status. In this context, our experimental results show that providing potential migrants with official numbers on the probability of getting a legal residence permit decreases their likelihood of migration by 2.88 percentage points (pp), while information on the death risk of migrating increases their likelihood of migration by 2.29 pp—although the official numbers should be regarded as a lower bound to actual mortality. Follow-up data collected one year after the experiment show that the migration decisions reported in the lab experiment correlate well with actual migration decisions and intentions. Overall, our study indicates that the migration decisions of potential migrants are likely to respond to relevant information.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Migration, Internet, Economic Growth, Borders, and Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Gambia

337. Building Regional Strategies for Media Development in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Fatima el-Issawi and Nicholas Benequista
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Experts from 13 countries in the Middle East and North Africa agreed on the priorities that could provide the basis for greater collective action to defend independent media in the region. This report provides a summary of those deliberations. Prominent journalists and publishers, digital news entrepreneurs, civil society leaders, and scholars described a crisis in the media sector with complex driving forces at the global, regional, and national levels. To confront this crisis, they concluded, would require stronger bonds among all the defenders of free expression and independent media across the region. The experts identified ways that they could increase collaboration, especially in countries that allow media and civil society to operate with some degree of freedom. They also stressed the importance of solidarity to protect journalists in countries where authoritarian regimes are active in the suppression of independent journalism through intimidation, harassment, and violence.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Media, Journalism, Repression, The Press, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

338. Countering Misinformation Via WhatsApp: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in Zimbabwe

Author:: Jeremy Bowles, Horacio Larreguy, and Shelley Liu
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We examine how information from trusted social media sources can shape knowledge and behavior when misinformation and mistrust are widespread. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Zimbabwe, we partnered with a trusted civil society organization to randomize the timing of the dissemination of messages aimed at targeting misinformation about the COVID-19 virus to 27,000 newsletter WhatsApp subscribers. We examine how exposure to these messages affects individual beliefs about how to deal with the COVID-19 virus and preventative behavior. The results show that social media messaging from trusted sources may have substantively large effects on not only individual knowledge but also ultimately on related behavior.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, Social Media, Pandemic, COVID-19, Misinformation, and WhatsApp
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

339. Ending Gender Violence in Elections: Inclusion of Women in Kenyan Politics and the National Dialogue Process from a Transitional Justice Perspective

Author:: Agatha Ndonga and Kelli Muddell
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: In its primary findings, Kenya's Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission noted that women and girls have been subject to systematic, state-sanctioned discrimination in all spheres of their lives, and that the state has failed to take measures to end the practices that restrict women’s political involvement. This paper highlights the need to overcome the political challenges Kenyan women face: their exclusion from political life, the continued violence against them during electoral contests, and their inability to rise to leadership positions in the country.
Topic:: Political Violence, Gender Issues, Elections, Gender Based Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

340. Geostrategic Dimensions of Libya’s Civil War

Author:: Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Libya’s civil war has become an increasingly competitive geostrategic struggle. A UN-brokered settlement supported by non-aligned states is the most viable means for a stable de-escalation, enabling Libya to regain its sovereignty.
Topic:: Civil War, Sovereignty, United States, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, and North Africa

341. The Puzzle of JNIM and Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel

Author:: Daniel Eizenga and Wendy Williams
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Composed of distinct operational entities, the militant Islamist group coalition Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen serves the role of obscuring the operations of its component parts in the Sahel, thereby inhibiting a more robust response.
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:: Africa, Sahel, and Sub-Saharan Africa

342. Urban Drivers of Political Violence

Author:: Antonio Sampaio
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The demographic trend of urbanisation, while not a cause of conflict, exacerbates local tensions and weak governance. It also creates an urgent need to understand the policy challenges that exist in cities such as Mogadishu, Nairobi, Kabul and Karachi. The rate of growth of the urban population in the four countries covered by this study was above the global average for the 2015–20 period – and more than double the average in the cases of Kenya and Somalia. With the exception of Pakistan, these countries also registered higher urban population growth in 2018 than the average for fragile and conflict-affected countries, which was 3.2%. Typically built without formal land rights, lacking basic public services, and featuring low-quality housing in overcrowded conditions, slums are perhaps the most visible characteristic of cities undergoing rapid and unmanaged urbanisation. But they are not the only one. Cities located in or near areas where armed conflict is taking place also tend to be split by several dividing lines – between slums and the rest of the city, between ethnic groups, between licit and illicit (often criminal) economies, and between violent and safe areas. Whereas many of these divisions may be part of broader national problems, their geographical concentration in the limited confines of a city creates distinctly urban drivers of violence, and therefore requires tailored policies in response. These divisions, exacerbated by the rapid urbanisation process, have contributed to a decline in state authority – governmental capacity to enforce rules, monopoly over the use of force, taxation and other state prerogatives – at the municipal level. In cities, therefore, security and governance go hand in hand. The existence of organised armed groups able to replace key state functions makes the challenges in cities affected by armed conflict particularly urgent. This report sheds light on the ways in which cities contribute to the weakening of state authority, and aims to provide a basis for the formulation of better, more tailored policies.
Topic:: Political Violence, Demographics, Urban, Housing, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Somalia, Nairobi, Karachi, Kabul, and Mogadishu

343. Stability in the time of COVID-19: implications for the Sahel

Author:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Since the early 2010s, increased volatility in the Sahel has aroused widespread concern, spurring the establishment of regional and international groupings to deal with the many security and governance challenges that have undermined stability in the region. Among those efforts were the creation of the G5 Sahel cooperation framework (2014), the G5 Sahel Joint Force (2017), the Sahel Alliance (2017) – and more recently, in June 2020, the International Coalition for the Sahel, to tackle instability in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Those five countries are the focus of this paper.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, and Burkina Faso

344. Morocco: Can the PJD Still Absorb Popular Anger?

Author:: Mohammed Masbah
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The Moroccan monarchy has used political parties, including the PJD, to legitimize the country’s authoritarian political process and structure, and to absorb social and political anger. This paper argues that putting the parties at the frontline without sufficient capacity to enact deep reforms weakens them as a shield against growing popular frustration. While this approach may work in the short term, it risks the country’s stability in the long term.
Topic:: Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Political stability, Protests, Political Parties, and Monarchy
Political Geography:: Africa and Morocco

345. The Future of the Algerian Hirak Following the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Dris Nouri
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Algeria has forced the Algerian popular Hirak to suspend demonstrations that continued without interruption for over a year despite the authorities’ various manoeuvres to disrupt them. This paper examines the Algerian authorities’ attempt to exploit the suspension of the protests to deal with the Hirak and assesses the ability of the popular movement to overcome this period.
Topic:: Protests, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Oppression
Political Geography:: Africa and Algeria

346. After the Pandemic: Reimagining the Role of State and Non-State Actors in (Re)building National Health Systems in the Arab World

Author:: Fadi El-Jardali
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In the Arab region, countries have become increasingly dependent on non-state actors, notably the private sector, for healthcare provision and any response that includes the State alone may not be sufficient to address the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper explores how state and non-state actors in Arab countries have collaborated so far and suggests ways forward to ensure quality healthcare services for all.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Governance, Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

347. Tunisia Facing COVID-19: To Exceptional Circumstances, Exceptional Measures?

Author:: Eya Jrad
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: With COVID-19, Tunisia is dealing with an unprecedented emergency that is testing its newly established democratic institutions. This paper explores how Tunisia’s different institutions have responded so far to the crisis, and sheds light on how each is trying to assert its role under the exceptional circumstances imposed by the pandemic.
Topic:: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

348. Mapping Algerian Trade Unions in the Time of Mass Mobilization: Current Dynamics and Future Challenges

Author:: Nacer Djabi
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Algeria has a long and rich history of trade union activism. With the 2019 Hirak, independent unions have participated and supported the protest movement’s demands for regime change, yet achieved only limited success in mobilizing their base. This paper explores the evolution of unions in Algeria and the factors that precluded their full participation in the Hirak. It highlights the need for unions to move beyond a culture of narrow sectoral demands if they are to play a role in the democratic transition.
Topic:: Political Activism, Reform, Unions, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Algeria

349. Can Tunisia Shake Off “Business as Usual” Following Covid-19?

Author:: Salma Houerbi
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The consequences of Covid-19 on Tunisia’s already fragile economy are bound to exacerbate existing social tensions. The government has rolled out a series of socio-economic measures to support individual entrepreneurs and businesses to maintain jobs and incomes across all sectors. This paper argues that the government’s support to the private sector represents a golden opportunity to rectify longstanding problems in state-business relations and institute a culture of corporate accountability. But to do so, the government should place the Covid-19 response within a broader effort to address the persistent and systemic challenges the country faces from corruption to rent-seeking to vulnerable workers’ conditions.
Topic:: Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

350. Covid-19 and a Deepening Conflict Worsen Libya's Humanitarian Situation

Author:: Khayreddine Basha
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The military conflict between Haftar and GNA forces in Libya continues to escalate, unaffected by Covid-19 or international calls for a ceasefire. A lack of coordination between the fighting parties and the ineffective implementation of measures to fight the spread of the pandemic further compound Libya’s worsening humanitarian situation. This paper explores Covid-19 impact on the health and humanitarian situation in Libya and examines the factors that contribute to the continuation of the conflict, including the incitement of international and regional actors involved in it.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

351. Sudan: Managing COVID-19 Pandemic During a Time of Transition

Author:: Ezman Kunna
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Sudan’s current transitional government has inherited a fragile health system that suffered years of neglect and underinvestment. The spread of COVID-19 poses important challenges to the country’s health and political structures. This Q&A looks at how Sudan’s government and non-government actors are faring against the spread of the pandemic and the impact of the lockdown on the political transition in the country.
Topic:: Political stability, Public Health, Pandemic, Transition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

352. Tunisia: New Government, New Dynamics?

Author:: Zied Boussen
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: After months of negotiation, Tunisia’s parliament voted in a government like no other since 2011. Headed by a prime minister whose party is not represented in parliament and with more than half of the ministers independent or new to government office, it is the first since 2011 that is not a “national unity” government. This paper examines this new Tunisian political landscape, the relationship between the prime minister and Tunisia’s president, and looks at the impact of this configuration on the ability of the new government to carry out long-awaited reforms.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, Political stability, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

353. Tunisia: In Tataouine, Socio-Economic Marginalization Is a Time Bomb

Author:: Alessandra Bajec
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Despite being rich in oil and gas, Tataouine in the south of Tunisia has remained severely underdeveloped and marginalized, pushing its inhabitants, time and again, to protest for reinvestment of its wealth in infrastructure and local jobs. This paper examines the underlying drivers of the ongoing unrest in Tataouine, the heavy-handed response of the security forces, and the successive Tunisian governments’ broken pledges to address the region’s socio-economic marginalization.
Topic:: Governance, Accountability, Marginalization, Socioeconomics, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

354. Diasporas: A Global and Vibrant Force for Arab Democratization

Author:: Amine Al-Sharif
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The Arab Spring was to sound the death knell of the decades-old authoritarian regimes plaguing the Arab world. In the end, only Egypt and Tunisia underwent a democratic transition, and only the Tunisian people succeeded in establishing a real, albeit still fragile, democracy. This regional experience illustrates the difficulty to spur democratic change in Arab countries. A lot of actors are involved in these complex processes, such as the political elite, the army, and foreign states. On top of these, Arab diasporas are also an important player, who can play an even more influential role by self-organizing. What are their actual and potential means of action, and how can self-organizing enhance their influence? Arab diasporas consist of all the Arab people permanently settled in a foreign country who have kept ties with their motherland. These populations, estimated at around 50 million individuals, are highly heterogenous: they are concentrated in Brazil, Western Europe, the United States and Gulf countries; some hold businesses that have thrived, others hold blue-collar jobs; some are conservatives, others modern-minded. And sometimes, they represent an important share of their motherland’s population. The Lebanese and Palestinian diasporas are estimated to comprise more than half of their own populations, making them de facto important players in national politics. Full-fledged democratization in the Arab world is the result of a popular uprising, a transition from authoritarianism to democracy, and a consolidation of democracy. Arab diasporas can contribute to all these stages by engaging in six strategic fields, namely: the civic, media, artistic, entrepreneurial, political, and intellectual ones.
Topic:: Democratization, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

355. Local Authorities in Tunisia Face Challenges of Post-COVID Economic Recovery

Author:: Afef Hammami Marrakchi
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: What role can local authorities in Tunisia play as part of the country’s response to Covid-19? This paper examines the opportunities offered to Tunisian municipalities (communes) by the Local Government Act but also the real constraints – human, logistical, and financial – that these new devolved structures face as they seek to play a key role in the recovery.
Topic:: Recovery, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

356. Egypt after the Coronavirus: Back to Square One

Author:: Ishac Diwan, Nadim Houry, and Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Egypt’s recent security and macro-economic stabilization has been built on weak foundations and Covid-19 has further exposed this fragility. Egypt is now back to a situation broadly similar to that before the 2011 revolution: stable on the surface, but with deep structural problems and simmering social grievances, and little buffers to mitigate them. This paper argues for a major shift in the ways the country is currently governed in favour of greater openness in politics and markets, and for the international community to seriously engage Egypt on the need to reform economically and politically.
Topic:: Security, Arab Spring, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

357. Ending Denial: Anti-Black Racism in Morocco

Author:: Stephen J. King
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Morocco is a diverse country that has yet to come to terms with its own black population and the impact of centuries of the trans-Sahara slave trade. Diversity, the history of slavery in Morocco, and the racism that is generally inherent in post-slave societies are not openly discussed and often denied by non-Blacks. This paper examines the efforts of black Moroccans to tell the stories of racial discrimination against them as a first step in an attempt to raise awareness, pierce the taboos and end the denial surrounding anti-black racism in Morocco.
Topic:: Minorities, Political Activism, Discrimination, and Racism
Political Geography:: Africa and Morocco

358. What Has Changed in Policing since the Arab Uprisings of 2011? Challenges to Reform and Next Steps

Author:: Alex Walsh
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Since 2011, the police have been at the centre of the contestation rocking the Arab world. Part 1 mapped out some of the main modes of contestation and provided a preliminary assessment of their impact on police practices. This paper examines what is still holding up police reform attempts, presents possible future scenarios for policing practices in the region, and assesses the role of donor states, notably Europe, in supporting security sector reforms in MENA
Topic:: Social Movement, Reform, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

359. Identity Belonging and Constitutional Reform in Algeria: Reconciliating Ideologies for a Peaceful Transition

Author:: Yacine Adberahmane
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On 1 November 2020, Algerians will vote in a referendum on a new constitution proposed by current President Tabboune. Algeria’s successive constitutions have historically overlooked the country’s diversity. This paper argues that this latest constitutional process was a missed opportunity to encourage peaceful and meaningful exchanges between the country’s different groups, ultimately worsening tensions between both secularists and Islamists and between Arabists and Berberists. It calls on civil society actors to challenge the grip of the central authorities over the identity debate and to initiate a much-needed societal dialogue.
Topic:: Reform, Constitution, Peace, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa and Algeria

360. Building on Quicksand: Pursuing Transitional Justice in Times of Great Upheaval

Author:: Nadim Houry
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Anyone who cares about transitional justice in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) faces a daunting task. How to address the past when the present is in great upheaval? How to tackle yesterday’s wars and violations when new ones—often worse—are occurring today? Practitioners have long recognized that transitional justice is a slow and nonlinear process that requires patience and long-term planning. Setbacks are expected along the way but, in the end, there is the promise or assumption that “if you keep at it, you will eventually get results.” But is this assumption still valid in the MENA region? Are existing transitional justice efforts succeeding in laying the groundwork for a better future, or are they being washed away by new rounds of violence and repression? The issue is both conceptual and pragmatic. On one level, there is the question of whether a society can start addressing the traumas of the past while simultaneously dealing with new traumas, often caused by new actors. On another level, there is the question of what sort of transitional justice processes and institutions can deal with the past, while also being able to adapt to an ever-shifting present. The challenges are immense and there are no easy answers. Here, I highlight the need for further research on transitional justice processes in the MENA region, with a focus on recent years of upheaval. Two fundamental questions emerge: (i) how to reconcile past and current claims; and (ii) how to accommodate ever-changing sources of legitimacy, given the increasing hollowness of state structures in the region.
Topic:: International Law, Transitional Justice, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

361. Tunisia: COVID-19 Increases Vulnerability of Rural Women

Author:: Alessandra Bajec
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Tunisian women in rural areas have played a vital role in maintaining food security during the coronavirus pandemic but continue to suffer exploitation and exclusion. While their working conditions are already known for being dire, the public health crisis has compounded their economic and social insecurity. This paper discusses the systemic exploitative treatment of female agricultural workers, the state’s inability so far to protect them, and how local NGOs are helping to improve their lives.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Rural, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

362. Mobilizing against Anti-black Racism in MENA: A Reader

Author:: Arab Reform Initiative
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, USA, in May 2020 prompted a global surge of demonstrations in solidarity with the “Black Lives Matter” movement and has ushered in one of the most significant and wide-reaching anti-racism movements in recent history. While much of the world is slowly coming to terms with the painful racial histories that fuel present-day discrimination and tensions, the issue of racism in MENA and the region’s role in the slave trade have long been left either unacknowledged or explicitly denied. This denial reinforces entrenched systems of oppression, marginalization, and social exclusion with wider implications on the lives of MENA communities. Societies from Rabat to Sana’a are not as inclusive as they claim to be. Deeply ingrained racial prejudices continue to be a source of suffering and marginalization for diverse minorities, including black communities. Despite the recent growth of interest in anti-racism in MENA, scholarly and literary work on the subject remains sparse, and history books have either glossed over the plight of black people in the Arab region or ignored the part they play in the region’s social dynamics. As part of an effort to promote more regional discussions on the issue and our commitment to fight discrimination in the region, the Arab Reform Initiative is putting together a series of papers (as part of our Bawadar series) on anti-Black racism in MENA in an attempt to raise awareness about anti-black racism in Arab countries and highlight the mobilization that is taking place by anti-racism activists in the region. As a part of this effort, we are also compiling this reader list to draw attention to key academic and artistic works (in English, French and Arabic), but also to bring and keep the issues of anti-black racism at the forefront of public debates and actions. This list – although not exhaustive – presents works chronicling the history of Black communities in MENA, Afro-Arab experiences, and anti-Blackness in the region. We aim to regularly update it to highlight new authors and works. If you think there is a book or paper that needs to be added to this reader, please email us at the address provided above with a link to the paper or book and a few words as to why you think it should be added.
Topic:: Solidarity, Discrimination, Black Lives Matter (BLM), and Racism
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

363. The Pavements Don't Speak: Silencing Street Theatre in Egypt

Author:: Yasmin Helal
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Although street theatre succeeded in establishing itself as an artistic genre in Egypt in the 2000s, the rising restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly have forced street performers to silence in recent years. Through a series of interviews with artists, this paper addresses the factors that enabled the rise of street theatre, the process of politicization of some of its pioneers, as well as the causes that led to its fall.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Freedom of Expression, and Theater
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

364. Sudan: Have the Juba and Addis Ababa Agreements Untangled the Dichotomy between Religion and the State?

Author:: Abdelkhalig Shaib
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The place of religion in Sudan’s state has divided the country since its independence. In September, the transitional government agreed to separate religion and state, in an attempt to end the decades-long contention. Against the backdrop of past constitutional failures to adequately recognize and address Sudan’s diversity, this paper examines the implications of the recent Juba and Addis Ababa agreements in the country’s efforts to build a civil democratic state and the challenges ahead.
Topic:: Religion, Democracy, State, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

365. Christian missions and anti-gay attitudes in Africa

Author:: Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We argue that colonial Christian missions had a long-term impact on anti-gay attitudes in Africa. We use a geo-coded representative survey of African countries and the location of historical Christian missions to estimate a significant and economically meaningful association between proximity to historical missions and anti-gay sentiments today. Using anthropological data on pre-colonial acceptance of homosexual practices among indigenous groups, we show that the establishment of missions, while nonrandom, was exogenous to pre-existing same-sex patterns among indigenous population. The estimated effect is driven by persons of Christian faith and statistically indistinguishable from zero on samples of Muslims, nonbelievers, and followers of traditional indigenous religions. Thus, we argue that our results are indicative of a causal effect of missionary religious conversion to Christianity.
Topic:: Religion, Discrimination, Christianity, LGBT+, and Missionaries
Political Geography:: Africa

366. Looming Debt Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: Drivers, Implications and Policy Options

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana, Theresa Mannah-Blankson, and Angelica Espiritu-Njuguna
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This study explores the trends, patterns and drivers of recent debt accumulation in Sub-Saharan African countries with a view to sheding light on possible strategies to minimize adverse effects on the economies and ensure sustainable development financing. This is in light of concerns about a possible ‘looming debt crisis’ in the developing world, which have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The analysis in this study is based on existing data, supplemented by detailed information obtained from government sources for the cases of Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda. The evidence shows that Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced rapid accumulation of both domestic and external public debt since the 2008 global financial crisis. Governments have resorted increasingly to non-concessional borrowing and high-cost private short-term loans including Eurobonds, which has contributed to increasing the overall cost of debt servicing. The debt sustainability analysis by the IMF/World Bank completed before the Coronavirus pandemic suggested that debt ratios in SSA would stabilize or decline by 2023, assuming that appropriate fiscal consolidation plans are implemented and that most drivers of the debt acceleration dissipate in the medium term. With the Covid-19 pandemic, debt ratios in SSA are likely to rise and would only stabilize at a much later period if African economies are hit with a full-blown crisis as witnessed by advanced economies. Most importantly, the coronavirus crisis will exacerbate debt distress in countries that were already in weak conditions. It is imperative for Africa’s creditors and the donor community in general to assist African countries in combatting the pandemic and minimizing its impact on the economies by alleviating the debt burden through an expanded debt relief and a robust debt restructuring program. Going forward, given that African countries need high levels of financing to reach sustainable development goals, they must devise a strategy for ‘growing with debt’ in the post-crisis period. The paper offers some suggestions to achieve this goal.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

367. Bitter Chocolate: Wealth Extraction in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:: Jean Merckaert
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The cocoa sector has been at the heart of Côte d'Ivoire economy since independence. The country has become the largest producer of cocoa in the world (40%). In the two first decades of independence, impressive economic growth was fueled by cocoa exports. But the Ivorian miracle evaporated after the collapse of cocoa prices and the debt soaring. The country plunged into a serious economic crisis, followed by a political crisis that culminated in civil war in the early 2000s. The primary commodity sector in Côte d’Ivoire has been highly vulnerable to illicit financial flows. Large and persistent discrepancies between Côte d'Ivoire’s cocoa export statistics and the cocoa import statistics of major partners such as the Netherlands, Germany and France are indicative of substantial capital flight through export misinvoicing. With a focus on the four major periods in Ivorian political history, this paper analyzes the trend of illicit financial outflows in the cocoa sector, the mechanisms of resource rent capture and personal enrichment that fuel them, the key national and foreign players, and their ongoing responsibilities. Under the Houphouët-Boigny regime (1960-1993), through the management of the country’s Agricultural Product Stabilization and Support Fund, the president had full control over the cocoa sector and used it to enrich himself and his associates. He and his successor Bédié (1993-1999) colluded with exporting companies in which Ivorian political leaders were shareholders. Under Gbagbo (2000-2010), the cocoa rent was the main source of funding for the civil war. The techniques of the Forces Nouvelles in the North and government forces in the South were similar: taxing cocoa production and exports, and illegally exporting part of the output to neighboring Burkina Faso and Ghana. Under the Ouattara regime (2011-2020), despite a series of reforms aimed at good governance, the cocoa sector has remained highly concentrated in the hands of a few corporate giants and plagued with favoritism, while predation in other sectors too persisted. The persistence of capital flight suggests the political economy of cocoa remains deeply rooted in the colonial scheme. Be it state-led or market-led, dominated by foreign or domestic players, the Ivorian cocoa sector has remained the place for wealth extraction to the benefit of a handful members of the elite. Overcoming primary commodity dependence is essential for equitable development.
Topic:: Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flows, Commodities, Capital Flight, Chocolate, and Wealth Extraction
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

368. Capital Flight from South Africa: A Case Study

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana, Karmen Naidoo, and Adam Aboobaker
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper examines the mechanisms, actors, enablers, and the institutional environment that facilitate capital flight from South Africa and the resulting accumulation of private wealth in offshore financial centers. We estimate that from 1970 to 2017, South Africa lost over $300 billion through capital flight, including through overinvoicing of imports and underinvoicing of exports. Net trade misinvoicing amounted to $146 billion over the 1998-2017 period alone. Export underinvoicing appears to be especially rampant in the case of mineral resources such as gold, silver, platinum and diamonds. While capital flight is not a new phenomenon in South Africa, it has accelerated substantially over the past decades, a period marked by aggressive liberalization of the national economy and rapid integration into the global economy. Capital flight is a concern in a country such as South Africa that faces deep financing gaps, high multidimensional poverty, inequality and unemployment. An important challenge faced by South Africa in its quest to tackle capital flight and the associated problems such as tax evasion, base profit shifting, and money laundering is the threat of erosion of the public confidence in state institutions in light of the emerging phenomenon of state capture orchestrated by an intricate network of private ‘enablers’ with deep connections within the state and in the global economy. The adverse effects of capital flight on economic development, state institutions and governance call for urgent attention to prevent even more devastating consequences for the country’s political and social instability.
Topic:: Governance, Global Political Economy, Institutions, Capital Flight, Tax Evasion, Instability, and Money Laundering
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

369. Predictors of school dropout across Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam

Author:: Santiago Cueto, Claudia Felipe, and Juan Leon
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:: In this paper the authors utilize the five rounds of Young Lives household surveys across four countries (Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam) to study the characteristics of children who had dropped out of school by 22 years of age. While most children in the longitudinal sample go to primary school, they tend to drop out more often and earlier in Ethiopia. In India most children complete the early grades of school but drop out later, particularly in grades 11 and 13. Researchers find that in all countries, except Vietnam, there is a considerable number of children who drop out of school but at some point return to it, either to complete secondary or drop out again. The reasons provided by children for dropping out across the countries are oftentimes related to poverty: for example, the need to work, or care or provide for family. The multivariate analysis shows that indeed in many cases the wealth level of the family at an early age predicts later dropout, as does maternal education level, students’ early skills and residence in certain regions of each country. There are also some variations across countries; for example, boys are more likely to drop out of school in Ethiopia and Vietnam, and children who have repeated a grade are more likely to drop out of school in Peru. However, having high educational aspirations at early ages seems to be a protective factor against dropping out. This suggests that the value that children place on education may be an important preventative factor against dropping out. Overall, these results suggest the need to act early through education and social protection interventions to target young children who are at risk of dropping out, and the follow their trajectories, providing support as needed to specific groups and even individuals, so that all children may fulfill their right to complete at least secondary education.
Topic:: Education and Children
Political Geography:: Africa, India, Asia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Peru

370. Failing Africa’s Farmers: An Impact Assessment of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa

Author:: Timothy A. Wise
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) was founded in 2006 with the goal of bringing high-yield agricultural practices to 30 million smallholder farming households. With the adoption of commercial seeds and inorganic fertilizer, AGRA set out to double crop productivity and incomes while halving food insecurity by 2020. As AGRA reaches its self-declared deadline for these ambitious goals, how well has AGRA done in increasing productivity, incomes, and food security? The organization has received roughly $1 billion in funding, two-thirds of it from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and disbursed more than $500 million in grants, mainly in 13 priority African countries. The Green Revolution technology campaign has been supported during this time by international programs far larger than AGRA and notably by national governments in Africa, which have spent roughly $1 billion per year on programs that subsidize the purchase of commercial seeds and fertilizers. There is little publicly available documentation of impacts, from AGRA, the Gates Foundation, or donor governments that have supported the initiative. This paper attempts to fill some of that accountability gap. Because AGRA declined to provide data from its own monitoring and evaluation, we use national-level data to assess progress in productivity, poverty reduction, and food security in AGRA’s 13 countries. We find little evidence of widespread progress on any of AGRA’s goals, which is striking given the high levels of government subsidies for technology adoption. There is no evidence AGRA is reaching a significant number of smallholder farmers. Productivity has increased just 29% over 12 years for maize, the most subsidized and supported crop. This falls well short of doubling yields, which would be a 100% increase. Overall staple crop yields have grown only 18% over 12 years. Meanwhile, undernourishment (as measured by the FAO) has increased 30% in AGRA countries. These poor indicators of performance suggest that AGRA and its funders should change course. We review more promising approaches African governments and donors should consider.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Neoliberalism, Green Technology, Private Sector, and Charity
Political Geography:: Africa

371. Peacekeeping and the Enforcement of Intergroup Cooperation, Evidence from Mali

Author:: William G. Nomikos
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Despite the abundance of evidence that peacekeeping works, we know little about what actually makes peacekeepers effective. Recent work suggesting that local agendas are central to modern conflicts make this omission particularly problematic. The article demonstrates that the presence of peacekeepers makes individuals more optimistic about the risks of engagement and the likelihood that members of outgroups will reciprocate cooperation. I use data from a lab-in-the-field experiment conducted in Mali, a West African country with an active conflict managed by troops from France and the United Nations (UN), to show that UN peacekeepers increase the willingness of individuals to cooperate relative to control and French enforcers. Moreover, I find that UN peacekeepers are especially effective among those participants who hold other groups and institutions in low esteem as well as those who have more frequent contact with peacekeepers. Follow-up interviews and surveys suggest that perceptions of the UN as unbiased rather than other mechanisms account for its effectiveness.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

372. Equipping the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation for the Low-Carbon Transition How Are Other National Oil Companies Adapting?

Author:: Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC) persistent governance challenges have both hampered Nigeria’s oil sector development and deprived the country of public resources. The oil, climate, and COVID-19 crises and the ramp-up of the low-carbon transition exacerbate this reality, with the national oil company (NOC) delivering sub-optimal returns to its stakeholders. Other NOCs have taken meaningful steps to become players in the low-carbon energy transition domestically or internationally—for example, Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco, Norway’s Equinor, Brazil’s Petrobras, Malaysia’s Petronas, and Algeria’s Sonatrach. These NOCs can serve as sources of inspiration for NNPC. These five NOCs have also undergone reforms of various aspects of their corporate governance. Even if not always sufficient, these reforms position them to be players of the energy transition. The current crisis provides a unique opportunity and political momentum for the Nigerian government and legislature to reconsider NNPC’s role in the context of the energy transition and implement profound reform of the company. While it is an incredible policy and political challenge, other NOCs are showing the way, and policy guidance is already out there to guide countries and companies.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

373. Assessing Digitalization and Data Governance Issues in Africa

Author:: Adedeji Adeniran and Idris Ademuyiwa
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The growth of digitalization and digital technology adoption in Africa holds the key to strengthening and diversifying economies across the continent. Although these developments offer potentially life-changing benefits for consumers, businesses and governments, the inherent flaws in the digital market mean these benefits are not guaranteed. As most gains from the digital economy are largely concentrated in the United States and China, the digital divide may widen the gap between the Global North and the Global South.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Global South

374. Memorandum of Issues on The Amendment to the Local Governments Act, CAP 243

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This memorandum seeks to contribute to the on-going ammendment to the Local Governments Act. The memorundum is based on the research, capacity building and outreach activities that ACODE has implemented in Local Governments over the last 10 years. This is very timely in view of the fact that MoLG has recently been granted a sector status, the Local Government Sector.
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Public Policy, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

375. The Local Government Councils' Scorecard FY 2018/19: The Next Big Steps; Consolidating Gains of Decentralisation and Repositioning the Local Government Sector in Uganda

Author:: Arthur Bainomugisha, Jonas Mbabazi, Wilson Winstons Muhwezi, George Bogere, Phoebe Atukunda, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Oscord Mark Otile, Fred Kasalirwe, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, Walter Akena, and Richard Ayesigwa
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This eighth national Local Government Councils Scorecard report presents findings and results of the performance of elected political leaders at the district levels during the Financial Year 2018/2019. The Local Government Councils Scorecard FY 2018/19 report takes stock of where Uganda is on the road to full realization of the vision of decentralization and recommends a broad array of steps that would take the country much closer to that destination. The Scorecard methodology is unique in that it combines capacity-building and evidence-based assessment of elected local government leaders in a way that both strengthens local government institutions and holds leaders accountable for delivering the public services to which citizens are entitled. The methodology, described in this book, also incorporates an innovative civic engagement action planning process that builds capacity among citizens to use the tools of civic engagement to demand that public services are delivered.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

376. Launch of the 8th Local Government Councils Scorecard Report FY 2018/19: Summary Report of the Proceedings

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents the proceedings of the launch of the 8th Local Government Councils Scorecard report for the Financial Year 2018/2019 held at Hotel Africana in Kampala. The theme of the launch was: “The Next Big Steps: Consolidating Gains of Decentralisation and Repositioning the Local Government Sector in Uganda.” It was collaboratively convened by the Ministry of Local Government (MoLG), the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) and the Uganda Local Governments Association (ULGA). The scorecard assessed the performance of elected district local government leaders in 35 districts strewn across the country, in the context of the decentralisation policy.
Topic:: Development, Budget, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

377. Creation of New Cities in Uganda: Social Economic and Political Implications

Author:: Jonas Mbabazi and Phoebe Atukunda
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report analyses the socioeconomic implication of new cities in Uganda. The operationalization of new cities requires office structures, staff and other administrative resources that are vital for daily operations. These come with a hefty price tag that can only increase public administration expenditure. Besides the start-up funds, the administrative units require operational funds to enable them to implement their mandate as stipulated in the Local Government Act, 1997. Some of the responsibilities under their mandate include service delivery, governance and administration.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Urbanization, Urban, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

378. Cushioning Local Governments From The Impact of COVID-19

Author:: Jonas Mbabazi, Fred Kasalirwe, Phoebe Atukunda, and Walter Akena
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This policy brief presents proposals that will cushion local governments from the impact of COVID-19. Undeniably, responding to Covid-19 challenges at any level is associated with heavy demands on human, financial and logistical resources. Globally, Covid-19 emergence response is multi-sectorial to enable a holistic solution to the concomitant challenges. District councils, a creation of the Local Government Act are mandated to oversee health services. Other than frontline health workers, each district has a community-based services department with officers’ in-charge of probation and social welfare, social rehabilitation, children and youth affairs, gender, disability and elderly, culture, labour and many others. Since the mandate of personnel in this department is to operate in communities, these should be enlisted to respond and manage the community-component of Covid-19.
Topic:: Government, Local, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

379. Financing Local Governments in Uganda: An Analysis of the Draft National Budget Estimates for FY2020/21 and Proposals for Reallocation

Author:: Ramathan Ggoobi and Daniel Lukwago
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This study was a follow-up of the 2019 study intended to examine the Budget Framework Paper (BFP) and the National Budget Estimates for FY 2020/21 to identify the budget lines for devolved services that had been allocated to Central Government MDAs. It was intended as strategy for advocacy for increasing the financing of LGs in the FY 2020/21 national budget.
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Finance, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

380. Climate Finance Mobilization in Uganda: The most viable financing option

Author:: Robert Bakiika, Christine Mbatuusa, Anthony Mugeere, and Anna Amumpiire
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This policy briefing paper provides a summary of the key findings of the study and highlights the possible climate finance mobilization mechanisms feasible for Uganda.
Topic:: Climate Change, Budget, Finance, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

381. Monitoring of Local Government Budgets and Road Transport Services in Quarter II FY 2019/20

Author:: Emmanuel Keith Kisaame and Richard Ayesigwa
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents findings of the Budget and Service Delivery Monitoring Exercise (BSDME) carried out in 26 districts. The BSDME largely focuses on three basic aspects, namely, the display of information on transfers at service delivery units, payroll & pensions, timeliness in receipt of funds, and quality of services including challenges. This round of BSDME specifically focuses on the quality of district and community roads that make up the largest proportion of Uganda's road network. The exercise sought to assess the quality of these roads, the capacity of districts to undertake road maintenance, and the challenges they face.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Budget, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

382. Fiscal Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Recovery Measures: A Synthesis Report of Proceedings from the 10th Annual High Level Pre-Budget Dialogue

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report is a synthesis of proceedings of the 10th high level dialogue on the national budget that largely focused on what should be prioritized during the Covid-19 pandemic, what the change may mean for the Uganda's development in the short-term and the interventions for economic recovery.
Topic:: Budget, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

383. Functionality of Sector Working Groups in Uganda

Author:: Elijah Dickens Mushemeza and Emmanuel Keith Kisaame
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This paper assessed the functionality of the Sector Working Groups (SWGs) in Uganda for insights into the on-going policy developments in selected Sectors. The paper unravels the operational dynamics of the SWGs, their successes, and the challenges they have encountered. It then makes recommendations on how the functionality of SWGs could be improved.
Topic:: Development, Budget, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

384. Assessing Capacities for Local Economic Development in Uganda

Author:: Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Assumpta Tibamwenda, Elijah Dickens Mushemeza, George Bogere, Lillian Tamale, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, and Jonas Mbabazi
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents the findings and discussions of Local Economic Development (LED) practices in nine districts of Northern Uganda that included: Adjumani, Amuru, Arua, Kitgum, Lira, Omoro, Oyam, and Yumbe. The analysis provides insights into implementation of LED policies, and the level of preparedness of the districts to implement the policy as a tool for economic transformation and development. LED was conceptualised as a process or development model where Local Governments, the private sector, and the community, are jointly and collectively engaged in identification, mobilization and management of resources at the local level. LED is therefore intended to create conducive environments for investment, increased household incomes, and higher revenues for Local Governments.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Governance, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

385. Conserving the Environment and Enhancing Community Resilience: The Key Climate Change Priorities during and after COVID-19

Author:: Onesmus Mugyenyi, Anthony Mugeere, and Anna Amumpiire Akandwanaho
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This policy brief argues for the conservation of the environment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic while at the same time enhancing community resilience to climate change shocks. The brief proposes recommendations that need to be addressed by the Government of Uganda and all stakeholders in the Environment and Natural Resources sector in order to achieve sustainable development.
Topic:: Environment, Conservation, Resilience, Community, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

386. Public Expenditure Governance in the Roads Sector

Author:: Ramathan Ggoobi, Daniel Lukwago, and George Bogere
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This study examines how funds in the roads sub-sector were allocated and managed during the Fiscal Year 2015/16-2018/19. The aim is to assess the impact of these investments, and the effectiveness of the planning, budgeting and execution and plans and budgets in the roads sub-sector. The study was motivated by government priority tagging of the Road Sector as "fundamental" for the achievement of the Uganda Vision 2040. Consequently, the roads have claimed the largest share of the national budget over the last decade. However, Uganda's road transport network is still very small by international standards, with only 21.4 percent of the national road network paved. Only 0.4 percent and 5.6 percent of the district and urban roads respectively, are paved. Despite continuous investment in the Road Sector with an average of 17 percent of the annual national budget over the last decade, there are reports of persistent public outcry about the poor state of roads and the deteriorating quality of works being executed.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Public Policy, and Roads
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

387. Step by Step Guidelines for Making Ordinances and Bylaws for Local Governments in Uganda

Author:: Onesmus Mugyenyi and Dickens Kagarura
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: Law making process by local governments is a challenging task in Uganda largely due limited skills at the local government level. the publication of these guidelines, therefore, is intended to simplify the process of law making by providing step by step procedure of making ordinances by district councils and byelaws by lower local governments. These guidelines are based on the Local Government Act, and the Handbook on Making Ordinances and Byelaws in Uganda (Second Edition-2010) by the Uganda Law Reform Commission.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Law, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

388. The Performance of the COVID-19 District Task Forces in Uganda: Understanding the Dynamics and Functionality

Author:: Jonas Mbabazi and Fred Kasalirwe
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This policy brief is a product of the assessment of the performance of the COVID-19 District Task Forces (DTFs) in Uganda. This study on the performance of the COVID-19 District Task Forces was conducted under the Local Government Council's Scorecard Initiative (LGCSCI), a social accountability project implemented in 35 Districts in Uganda. The main objective of the study was to establish the determinants and level of performance of District COVID-19 Task Forces to enhance their effectiveness.
Topic:: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

389. The Performance of the COVID-19 District Task Forces in Uganda: Understanding the Dynamics and Functionality

Author:: Wilson Winstons Muhwezi, Jonas Mbabazi, Fred Kasalirwe, Phoebe Atukunda, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Oscord Mark Otile, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, and Walter Akena
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report is an important assessment of the performance of the DTFs in implementing the COVID-19 pandemic containment plan. As the world is faced with the unprecedented challenges from COVID-19, the strain on many governments is extreme, and the impact on people all over the world continues to grow. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the social and economic structures of service delivery with significant consequences on lives, livelihoods and general economic development. As part of the response mechanism to contain and manage the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Uganda instituted national and sub-national COVID-19 task forces to implement and manage the COVID-19 pandemic containment and recovery measures. The Presidential Decree on COVID-19 recognizes the Central Government's role in the provision of healthcare and security. District Taskforces (DTFs) were put in place to support Central Government's containment of COVID-19 and implementation of the GoU COVID-19 containment styrategies of case management, surveillance, health promotion, resource mobilization, enforcement of standard operating procedures (SOPs) and continued delivery of basic services.
Topic:: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

390. What Stymies Action on Climate Change? Religious Institutions, Marginalization, and Efficacy in Kenya

Author:: Lauren Honig, Amy Erica Smith, and Jaimie Bleck
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Low-income countries of the Global South will be hardest hit as Earth’s climate changes, yet fear of climate change often fails to stimulate activism among their citizens. We foreground efficacy—a belief that one’s actions can create political change—as a critical link in transforming concern into action. However, that link is often missing for marginalized ethnic, socioeconomic, and religious groups. Prior case studies show the power of community institutions to mobilize and empower marginalized citizens, yet community institutions can also reinforce the perception that action is futile by conveying narratives of neglect and discrimination. Analyzing interviews, focus groups, and survey data from a case study of Kenya, we find that Muslims express much lower efficacy to address climate change than other religious groups; the gap cannot be explained by differences in science beliefs, issue concern, ethnicity, or demographics. Instead, we attribute it to socialized understandings of marginalization vis-à-vis the Kenyan state.
Topic:: Environment, Religion, Institutions, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa

391. Agricultural input subsidy and farmers outcomes in Tanzania

Author:: Bethuel Kinyanjui Kinuthia
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of the government input subsidy—the National Agriculture Input Voucher—on farmers’ production and welfare in Tanzania as well as the factors that influence agricultural production in the country. The analysis is based on the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for 2008–13. The study uses panel fixed effects and difference-in-difference and propensity score matching methods to examine the two objectives. The results show that the input subsidy programme resulted in an initial increase in maize and rice production but not in the long run and only in a few regions. In addition, there was a decrease in total production in the southern region and the programme had little effect on farmers’ welfare. The results show that this programme only partly met the expected outcomes in Tanzania due to mistargeting, inaccurate identification of households, and poor implementation.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Welfare, Farming, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

392. Uganda’s nascent oil sector: Revenue generation, investor-stakeholder alignment, and public policy

Author:: Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper discusses the political economy of oil in Uganda since the announcement of its discovery in 2006. It focuses on the dynamics of oil revenue generation (pre-commercial production) and expenditure, investor-stakeholder contestation (i.e. between bureaucrats, investors/oil companies, and domestic stakeholders), and the role of public policy. Although the Government has created several institutional and regulatory frameworks to manage oil-related revenues and ensure that oil contributes to structural transformation, Uganda is already experiencing many of the stylized facts associated with natural resource exploitation, including macroeconomic instability, rent dissipation, and, more broadly, threats of adverse impact on the environment and on local livelihoods in the oil regions. Besides these, Uganda, and similarly endowed African countries, face the economic challenges related to the global shift in recent decades towards a low-carbon development paradigm and the threatening prospect of oil investments becoming ‘stranded assets’. The latter issues are not yet part of the policy conversation in Uganda.
Topic:: Environment, Oil, Public Policy, Investment, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

393. The Rwandan Experience: How Palestine Can Benefit from It

Author:: Adv. Belal Al-Najjar
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Rwandan experience accomplished a success in dealing with conflicts, making an example for countries that are suffering from civil wars, internal divisions, or armed conflicts now. It demonstrates the ability to rebuild a modern state if an actual willingness is available in spite of the existence of tremendous historical epic violence, oppression or armed conflict. Since the beginning of the nineties, Rwanda has been the scene of the most horrific genocidal wars which caused nearly a million lives of people to be gone. These crimes prompted the resignation of President Bisi Mongo, who was unable to control the country after it plunged into chaos. As a result, a civil war broke out in Rwanda between the government and the Rwandan Patriotic Front. The Hutu majority confronted the Tutsi minority. Their conflict continued until the outbreak of a three-month genocidal war. The massacres, which occurred during the conflict period, are considered the fourth largest genocide in the modern history.
Topic:: Civil War, Genocide, Minorities, Discrimination, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Rwanda

394. The praxis of combating VAW in Ethiopia: A political interpretation

Author:: Dereje Feyissa
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Violence against Women (VAW) is among the human rights violations that women face globally every day. The roots of VAW lie in historically unequal power relations between men and women and pervasive discrimination against women in both the public and private spheres. VAW is a global phenomenon that is not limited to certain cultures or countries. However, the form it takes is context-specific. In Ethiopia VAW is pervasive, occurring at three levels as identified by the UN: family; community; and the state. Despite policy pronouncements and the implementation of some practical measures, VAW is still prevalent in Ethiopia. This new Working Paper by Dereje Feyissa, adjunct associate professor, Addis Ababa University, offers a political interpretation to explain the gap between policy and practice on VAW in Ethiopia. Specifically, it argues that the gap between policy and practice lies in the type of regime in Ethiopia, which has undermined the political will and limited the space for gender activism. Historically, this has been evident ideologically (the Marxist frame of the ‘women question’ and the vanguardism connected with it), but also in respect to political legitimacy (ethnic federalism and the priority given to cultural rights), entrenched authoritarianism and the limited space available for gender activism by women’s right groups. The Working Paper is published as part of the international research programme GLOW – Global Norms and Violence Against Women in Ethiopia – financed by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Poverty, Women, Inequality, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

395. Renewable energy poses opportunities and challenges in Africa

Author:: Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, Ole Winckler Andersen, and Henning Nøhr
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Development assistance plays an important role in the development of energy sectors in sub-Saharan African countries and it is increasingly being used to promote new renewable energy like solar and wind. The relationship between aid and domestic African priorities is however complex and outcomes are not always as donors had intended. By way of collecting experiences from a number of different approaches in different African country contexts a new DIIS Working Paper analyses recent trends in development assistance for new renewable energy. Overall, the paper demonstrates a shift to promoting market-led approaches that aim at mobilising private capital for power-sector investments. Whereas more capital has indeed been mobilised for new renewable energy projects the paper suggests that more support is needed if a transition to cleaner energy and universal access to energy services are to be achieved. Furthermore, the promotion of market-led approaches poses not only opportunities, but also a number of challenges to governments and donors. Clean energy and decarbonisation are often less of a priority among key decision-makers in African countries than they are for western donors. The paper argues that it is important to recognise these different interests and to be realistic about how to bridge them. Furthermore, despite improvements in recent years the capacity to plan, procure and integrate renewable energy in power systems remains a challenge in many countries. This points to the importance of ensuring a balance between support for market development and support for capacity-building of government entities. Needs are likely to differ from one country to another and change as renewable technologies develop. The constant adaption of approaches is therefore crucial.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

396. Taxation in sub-Saharan Africa after Covid-19: Challenging but far from impossible

Author:: Odd Helge Fjeldstad and Ole Therkildsen
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the need in poor countries in Africa for more revenues is obvious and growing - also because aid agencies are quite stingy in assisting them in this crisis. The pandemic’s negative impact on revenues is especially pronounced in countries that are most dependent on international trade, tourism and petroleum exports. The good news is that sub-Saharan African tax collectors have performed almost as well as their peers in the much wealthier Latin America and substantially better than in South Asian countries. Increased domestic revenue mobilisation (DRM) in poor African countries is possible depending on the country’s specific situation and political economy - but it will not be easy: The IMF’s position is that increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio by five percentage points by 2030 is a reasonable aspiration for poor countries. That was unrealistic before Covid-19: it is even more so now. No silver bullet ('tax the rich'!) will generate substantial additional revenues on its own. Better utilisation of a range of revenues sources is needed. A stop for Illicit Financial Flows will clearly help, but is not the golden egg that many believe. Inequality may increase due to Covid-19. However, major redistribution through domestic taxation (as in the Danish welfare state model) is unrealistic in countries with low revenue-to-GDP ratios. Nor is there strong organised political support for such redistribution in poor African countries. Donor support to DRM in poor countries can provide manifold returns on investments if targeted strategically. Support to relevant local and international civil society organisations is also important to help to foster public engagement in tax reforms and improved fiscal accountability. The Sustainable Development Goals in poor countries are strongly under-financed. The progress and sustainability of the SDGs will increasingly depend on poor countries’ own revenues. Hence the centrality of strategically relevant donor support to DRM.
Topic:: Poverty, Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, Tax Systems, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

397. Financing Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Botswana Through the Capital Market

Author:: Kelesego Mmolainyane
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: In her quest to further graduate to the high-income status, Botswana seeks to invest more in infrastructure development for both productive and social use. An efficient and effective infrastructure provision is fundamental to excellent public service delivery and access. Sadly, Botswana, like many other world economies, has a challenge of having an infrastructure financing gap. One of the innovative ways to fill this gap is through public private partnerships (PPPs) with the capital market that has excess liquidity. Infrastructure PPPs are complex and capital intensive projects that require project finance experts to advise parties involved regarding returns and risks associated with each project. Various project-financing models can be designed to suit project specifications and they cannot be over-generalised for all PPP projects. Nevertheless, given the tight fiscal space, Botswana now, more than ever, should consider issuing PPP bonds and applying user changes model to finance economic PPP infrastructure for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Infrastructure, Finance, Public Sector, Economic Development, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

398. Key Drivers of Industrial Growth: A Case Study of Botswana’s Manufacturing Sector

Author:: Johanne Motsatsi and Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: The paper examines the key determinants of industrial growth in Botswana, using manufacturing sector value added as the proxy for industrial growth. It employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach using annual time series data for the period 1983 to 2015. Empirical results show that industrial growth is driven by financial sector development, human capital development, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Specifically, domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP and secondary school enrolment ratio are found to be significantly related to manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP both in the long run and short run. While the relationship is limited to long run for total trade to GDP, it only exits in the short run for FDI net inflows. The study therefore recommends that policy makers should design and ensure proper implementation of financial sector development strategies that can help ease access to credit for manufacturing enterprises in the country. There is also a need for a holistic approach in the design and implementation of innovation and human resource development policies in order to provide a conducive environment for skills acquisition, innovation and technological advancements in the manufacturing sector. Trade policies and export promotion strategies should heighten productivity and value addition in the manufacturing sector, so as to make local firms internationally competitive. Finally, with regards to FDI, the Government of Botswana should create an environment that could entice multinationals to invest in the local manufacturing industry. This, however, should be coupled with protectionist policies to avoid crowding out local manufacturers and exposing them to foreign competition.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Economic Growth, Manufacturing, Economic Development, and Industrialization
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

399. Ordinary Shareholders' Rights Protection in Botswana

Author:: Ratang Sedimo and Kelesego Mmolainyane
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: This study seeks to examine institutional frameworks that exist in Botswana to protect the rights of ordinary shareholders. There is no literature on the subject matter in the context of Botswana; hence this study attempts to fill in the literature gap. The study uses a variety of data collection methods, such as semi-structured interviews, the Choppies case study and lessons learnt from other jurisdictions. Findings reveal that ordinary shareholders’ rights protection involves the use of institutional frameworks. In Botswana, existing frameworks are not adequate to protect ordinary shareholders’ rights. Furthermore, the study shows that ordinary shareholders in Botswana are mainly exposed to risks of losing their investments, partially or entirely, in case of non-compliance to regulatory requirements as shown by the reduction in Choppies’ stock price from P1.20 to P0.40 between years 2012 and 2018. The study suggests that the existing institutional frameworks should be reviewed to ensure adequate protection of ordinary shareholders’ rights.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Rights, Investment, Macroeconomics, Land Rights, and Labor Rights
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

400. Whistleblowing in Botswana's Construction Industry : A Public and Private Sector Perspective

Author:: Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: The construction industry (CI) is considered one of the most corrupt both internationally and regionally. Therefore, this study examined the views and attitudes of professionals in Botswana’s CI towards the role whistleblowing (or protected disclosure) can play in curbing corruption in the sector. A convergent mixed methods approach was adopted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from the construction industry. Furthermore, a self-administered survey was utilised to collect quantitative data from 117 construction firms. Data revealed that there was little awareness of whistleblowing legislation. Fear of retaliation or punishment and job loss, and a lack of education on whistleblowing were identified as some of the most substantial barriers to effective whistleblowing in the industry. From a public policy perspective, it is recommended that an emphasis be placed on improving levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in the construction sector. In addition, there should be consideration to amend the Whistleblowing Act 2016 to include construction industry regulators, the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board, and private media amongst the list of institutions authorised to receive reports of impropriety in order to extend the scope of legal protection to whistleblowers in the sector. Recommendations for further research are provided.
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Economics, Public Sector, Manufacturing, Economic Development, Private Sector, Industry, and Whistle Blowing
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS