Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Africa

101. Algeria’s social support policy: Economic costs and the need for reform

Author:: Hami Hassan
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: With the ratification of the 2022 budget in Algeria, the issue of budget allocations for social support and social benefits has resurfaced once again. This paper attempts to understand the repercussions of state intervention in economic affairs, and the historical and ideological underpinnings of the welfare state in Algeria as a rentier state based on the nationalization of all economic relations in crisis political contexts, the effects of which extended to the state’s relationship with society and the relations of production within it.
Topic:: Economics, Reform, Finance, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Africa and Algeria

102. The ghost people and populism from above: The Kais Saied case

Author:: Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Since Kais Saied dismissed Hichem Mechichi’s government in July 2021, several political concepts emerged to interpret what happened in Tunisia, either to legitimize or denounce Saied’s measures. This article examines Saied’s brand of populism and looks at how his failure to mobilize the people he claims to represent is slowly sinking Tunisia into authoritarianism.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Populism, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

103. Youth perceptions of gender equality in Tunisia

Author:: Bedirhan Erdem Mutlu
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The 2011 Tunisian uprising meant an opening of the public space for discussion and activism about crucial and controversial issues, including gender equality. This study analyses youth perceptions of gender equality based on survey information and in-depth interviews with Tunisian civil society activists and examines the generational differences concerning the role of women and men in the public and private spheres in Tunisian society.
Topic:: Youth, Youth Movement, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

104. The impact of the quota system on women parliamentary representation in Morocco: A series of reforms or a regressive path?

Author:: Aberrafie Zaanoun
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: While the gradual improvement of the quota system increased the number of women in parliament, experiences so far show that the quota system has been used as an electoral tool by a political class that exploited affirmative action measures to seize more representative seats through kinship and personal connections. This paper looks at the contexts surrounding the implementation of the women’s quota in the Moroccan electoral system, its advantages and disadvantages, as well as the possibility of redirecting the quota system to achieve true political empowerment for women.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, Representation, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Africa and Morocco

105. Freedom, justice, and dignity in movement: Mobility regimes in the Grand Tunis

Author:: Bedirhan Erdem Mutlu
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Mobility is one of the many areas where Tunisians are still waiting to achieve their revolutionary demands for justice, freedom, and dignity. This paper focuses on the modes of transportation in Grand Tunis to understand the persistence of unjust mobility regimes. It finds that decades of state policies favoring private car ownership coupled with structural and management problems in public transportation have affected the underprivileged communities the most. Therefore, treating the question of movement as social justice issue is key to envisioning viable long-term solutions.
Topic:: Mobility, Justice, Freedom, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

106. The 25 July 2022 Scenarios in Tunisia: Uncertainty after the Referendum

Author:: Zied Boussen
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The referendum on 25 July 2022 will mark yet another important date in Tunisia’s history. This paper seeks to examine these different scenarios, analyze their consequences, study their stakeholders, and determine their likelihood.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Elections, Referendum, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

107. War in Ukraine and food insecurity in Tunisia: Where is reform most needed?

Author:: Khouloud Ayari
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Since February 2022, food insecurity due to the war in Ukraine has become a key issue of public debate in Tunisia, shedding light on the country’s food dependence, given that it imports more than half of its needs. This paper analyzes the significant changes concerning agriculture and food in terms of dependency and sovereignty in the contemporary agricultural history of Tunisia.
Topic:: Security, Poverty, Food, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

108. Youth participation in Tunisia’s elections: Some possible solutions

Author:: Lamia Zargouni
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Tunisian youth’s limited participation in political life dates back to before the January 2011 revolution, and recent elections also provide clear examples of the lack of youth participation both as voters and as candidates. This article examines the reasons behind this lack of political participation and presents several ways forward to ensure more inclusive participation for Tunisian youth.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Youth, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

109. Tunisia in the wake of the referendum: A new divisive Constitution

Author:: Zied Boussen and Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On 25 July 2022, Tunisian President Kais Saied organized a referendum for the adoption of a new constitution, clearly carrying his signature. A first look at the situation by our researchers Zied Boussen and Malek Lakhal sheds light on a so-far unstable Tunisian context.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Constitution, and Referendum
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

110. Tunisia’s Parliament: A Series of Post-Revolution Frustrations

Author:: Saida Ounissi
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Following the 25 July 2021 coup, Tunisia’s parliament has been the focus of President Kais Saied’s frustration and anger – not missing an opportunity in his speeches to point out that he speaks on behalf of the people when criticizing the parliament. This paper focuses on the logistics of the parliament’s everyday life to identify the multiple transformations of the parliamentary political landscape between imposed consensus and progressive fragmentation.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Arab Spring, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

111. Youth and the Future of Libya

Author:: Asma Khalifa
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: When young people took to the streets during the 2011 uprisings, they set in motion a shift in Libyan socio-economic dynamics that remains partially captured or understood. Chief among our collective blind spots are the consequences of war on young people that have had to survive through difficult circumstances. Building on discussions with Libyan youth, this paper sets out the obstacles to their political integration and puts forward what they see as priorities and recommendations for reconstruction and reconciliation in Libya.
Topic:: Reform, Arab Spring, Youth, and Youth Movement
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

112. Why Elections Won’t Happen in Libya

Author:: Asma Khalifa
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The 2021 agreement on holding elections was perceived by many Libyans as the light at the end of the dark tunnel of civil war and a reset to the political stagnation and the legal crisis. More than 2.5 million Libyans registered to vote, only for them to watch on the media a deliberate sabotage by those who were trusted in the process to commit to the agreement. While Libya is again setting the ground for future elections, this paper puts forward three points on why elections will not happen in Libya.
Topic:: Government, Democracy, Conflict, and Voting
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

113. Analysis of Cameroon – Nigeria Trade and Prospects for the African Continental Free Trade Area

Author:: Henri Kouam and Vera Kum
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Free trade between Cameroon and Nigeria is about reducing barriers to cross-border trade between the two countries by allowing traders on both sides of the spectrum to explore a larger market and private sector producers to expand their business. This policy brief examines the nature of Cameroon and Nigeria’s trade whilst illustrating the benefits of free trade on living standards, employment, and income inequality. It recommends that Cameroon and Nigeria cooperate on trade facilitation measures to increase the benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, and Cameroon

114. Trade Liberalization and Economic Development: Lessons for Africa

Author:: Henri Kouam and Fabien Sundjo
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: What happens when countries lower their tariff & import duties and open up their economy to other countries? This policy brief looks at the impact of trade liberalization on economic development, drawing from broad-based international literature. It shows how free trade can positively impact economic development, boost incomes, and improve standards of living. The African Continental Free Trade Area will stimulate intra-regional trade and help countries like Cameroon address acute development challenges. However, the expected positive results will depend on its successful implementation.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Trade Liberalization, Trade, Economic Development, and Liberalism
Political Geography:: Africa

115. The African-France Summit and an Overview of its Recommendations Since 1973

Author:: Fabien Sundjo
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: France’s earliest profit-making involvement in Africa in the business of buying and transporting slaves started in the 17th century when the local Indian population proved unable to work in plantations in America compared to black Africans. France’s interest in Africa reached its zenith in the 19th and early 20th centuries when France acquired a gigantic African empire. Though several reasons could explain the scramble for Africa by France, we present herein the three most important. First, the defeat of France in the 1870 Prussian war in which she lost influence and a reduction in her international ego. Second, the anxiety to implement Colbert’s mercantilist philosophy emphasized that any rising industrial power required to have both the source of raw materials and market extension under her control. Third and finally, as Europeans scrambled for Africa, France feared their traditional enemies could annex a remarkable share of the territory. Hence, from the outset, it was not the financial gains that many thoughts motivated France’s involvement in Africa but politics and national ego. It will only be later that France saw Africa as a cheap source of military manpower that could help balance demographic stagnation in France. This perception will later be reinforced by her experience in the two World wars. In this light, Iliffe (2007) holds that French colonial policy was characterized by the exploitation of rich resources from Africa. In the midst of all these benefits from colonization in Africa, Charles de Gaulle‘s decision to retain influence in Africa after decolonization in 1960 was driven by the need to persist with these benefits under neo-colonization. According to Abdurrahim (2014), in Africa, France uses a realist foreign policy in which states shape their foreign policies based on their national interests. To facilitate the implementation of this realist foreign policy, France will design the Franco-African summit that will cement France’s influence in her former colonies to date. Were France’s policies put in place through the Franco-African summits shaped to benefit France solely? This paper aims to present the Franco-African Summit and carry out a stocktake of France’s commitments through recommendations from the Franco-African Summit.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and France

116. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. The Law, History, Politics and Geopolitics behind Africa’s Largest Hydropower Project

Author:: Francesca Caruso
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since 2011, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has provoked a diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, adding fuel to the already combustible geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Despite its technical aspects, the GERD dispute has over time become a multi-layered geopolitical crisis where a plethora of actors and dynamics have been influencing the ongoing negotiations. Protagonists are no longer only Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, and the resolution of the crisis is now dependent on factors beyond technical solutions. Moreover, the crisis seems to have become an instrument that the three countries are using to deal with issues of national legitimacy, territorial disputes and regional balance. However, while instrumentalisation can be politically expedient in the short term, all parties have an interest an equitable and regionally based, inclusive and cooperative agreement. In order to understand how multilateral organisations can contribute to the finding of an equitable and reasonable solution, a multi-layered analysis – on local, national and regional dynamics – needs to identify the main drivers for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Water, Infrastructure, Law, Geopolitics, Dams, Conflict Management, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt

117. Egypt’s Decade of Water Woes

Author:: Hafsa Halawa
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Nile River dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan enters a new decade, this paper seeks to map out the Egyptian perspective of the dispute, through an outline of the interventions made, opportunities lost, and challenges posed by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Looking at Egypt’s domestic water security challenges, regional relationships and the tripartite process, and the role and influence of external actors, the paper describes a decade of diplomatic stagnation as entrenched nationalism creates forms of immovable policy on the River Nile.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Water, Dams, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

118. The GERD from an Ethiopian Perspective: Actors, Interests and Instruments

Author:: Jesutimilehin O. Akamo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: For Ethiopia, proposals on sharing the Nile waters and the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) must demonstrate flexibility (that is, be legally non-binding) and distance from the order that existed before the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA, or Entebbe Agreement). The GERD represents a move by Ethiopia to enhance economic security, boost its resilience against drought and consolidate its newfound hydro-political influence towards ensuring equitable and reasonable use of the Nile waters by riparian states. Ethiopia has demonstrated intentionality and consistency in its Nile policy under which the GERD falls. The link between the GERD, Ethiopia’s internal crisis and its perception of an international bias tend to threaten the likelihood of a mutually agreed deal. However, building mutual trust, strategic concessions and de-internationalising the GERD talks to the barest minimum are necessary steps to break the stalemate.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Dams, Drought, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

119. Connecting Strategic Dots: Biden’s Visit to the Middle East

Author:: Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: During Biden’s upcoming visit, he plans to form a regional defense alliance at a regional conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The coalition will include the United States, Israel, and a host of Arab countries, including Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. In this sense, Biden continues Trump’s policy of the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

120. Africa Report 2022. Africa-Europe Relations in an era of crisis

Author:: Elsa Aime Gonzalez and Itxaso Dominguez de Olazabal
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Africa is a continent, not a country’, says Dipo Faloyin in his recent work Africa is not a country. It may seem like that might go without saying about a place with 54 different nations, with hundreds of languages, with so many different histories, with so many different races but what it means is that you cannot know Africa without digging into the local realities. This 2022 Africa Report focuses on some of them (countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, and regions such as the Maghreb, West Africa). In Africa, however, we can see cross-cutting or cross-border trends that allow us to find continental issues in their government systems or in their societies.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa

121. Egypt as the Cornerstone of the New Regional Security Architecture

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The stability and orientation of the region’s most populous country, Egypt, remain crucial components of the newly emerging regional security architecture and its new strategic alignments.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Egypt, and MENA

122. Normalizing Relations Between Israel and the Arab World Continues Calmly in a Turbulent World

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Arab publics are engrossed by the challenges that they face in their states.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Violence, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

123. Taxation, infrastructure investment, growth, and poverty reduction: A case study of Zimbabwe

Author:: Hans Lofgren and Martin Cicowiez
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: In recent decades, Zimbabwe’s development record has been disappointing. In the last few years, a severe drought and the Covid-19 pandemic have added to the country’s development challenges. This paper is concerned with the long-run need to find a path toward faster growth in GDP, employment, and incomes, accompanied by more rapid progress on poverty reduction and other parts of the global sustainable development agenda. As part of this search, the country will need to address structural constraints including a large infrastructure gap, an inefficient government, and unhospitable business climate. Among these, this paper is focused on infrastructure and alternative means of financing scaled-up investments – what are the consequences of relying on domestic taxes compared to foreign financing? To address these questions, the paper draws on simulations with SDGSIM, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, designed for SDG analysis but applicable to analysis of policies in a wide range of areas, including growth, fiscal space, and external shocks. The model was adapted to the Zimbabwean context and calibrated to a database for 2016. The simulations cover the period 2016-2030 and analyzes the effects of alternative levels and priorities for government spending and resource mobilization (domestic and foreign). The simulation results cover a wide range of economic indicators, including some related to the global Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda. The differences between the scenario results for GDP growth, household consumption, and poverty point to the importance of strong public investment management and, other things being equal, of targeting TFP gains to tradable sectors. The advantages of reliance on domestic taxation for the funding of expanded investment include slower debt accumulation and less reliance on the decisions of external actors. Tax reliance may also give the funders, the citizens, a stronger sense of ownership and right to monitor how the money is used, with a positive impact on investment productivity. On the other hand, before the investment have yielded sufficient returns, reliance on taxes reduces private purchasing power, leading to some combination of lower private consumption and investment. Raising the tax burden by 2-3 percent of GDP may also be administratively difficult. It would of course be possible to consider scenarios that split the funding burden between domestic taxes and foreign financing.
Topic:: Poverty, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, and Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

124. Increasing Salience and Strategic Engagement for Women Economic Empowerment, Women Empowerment Collectives, and Gender Integration in Uganda

Author:: Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Florence Kuteesa, Emmanuel Keith Kisaame, Richard Ayesigwa, Phoebe Atukunda, and Philemon Okillong
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This study assessed the salience and strategic engagement for women economic empowerment, women empowerment collectives, and gender integration in Uganda. It delivers the roadmap for effective engagement of Women Economic Empowerment, Women Empowerment Collectives, and Gender Integration to refocus strategies for women economic empowerment, reflecting on effective stakeholders' engagement and pursuing commitment to leverage the synergies for WEE in a systematic and coordinated manner.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Economy, Empowerment, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

125. Social Determinants and how they Influence Councillor Performance in District Local Government Councils in Uganda

Author:: Fred Kasalirwe, Jonas Mbabazi, Phoebe Atukunda, Oscord Mark Otile, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, and Walter Akena
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This paper analyses how social determinants influence councillor role performance in the district local government in Uganda. The extent to which elected local government leaders perform their roles is critical for the quality of social services delivered to citizens. In the analysis, social determinants are conceptualised as; the education level of councillors, political party affiliation, electoral terms served/experience, councillor category, gender, and geographical location of the constituency represented by a councillor. In the same analysis, councillors' roles were conceptualised to include; legislation, contact with electorate, participation in lower local governments, and monitoring service delivery.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Services
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

126. Two are Better than One: The Role of Qatar and Egypt in Gaza

Author:: Yoel Guansky and Ofir Winter
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The cooperation between Cairo and Doha has grown stronger – a development that until recently seemed nearly impossible. What lies behind the surprising rapprochement, how did it contribute to the swift conclusion of the recent campaign in Gaza, and what are the challenges and opportunities for Israel in light of the new situation?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, and Qatar

127. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations

Author:: Morr Link
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

128. Egypt and Israel: Renewable Energies for Peace

Author:: Ofir Winter
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Egypt’s intense preparations for the international climate conference that it will host in Sharm el-Sheikh were evident at the World Youth Forum that met there this past January. Many of the conference sessions were devoted to the climate issue, which is currently challenging the international system in general, and Egypt in particular. Cairo’s goal to serve as a regional hub for gas and renewable energies presents an opportunity for increased cooperation between Egypt and Israel – particularly at a time that Europe is confronted with the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

129. Who Lends to Africa and How? Introducing the Africa Debt Database

Author:: David Mihalyi and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Africa’s sovereign debt markets are not well understood, partly due to a lack of data. This paper introduces the Africa Debt Database (ADD), the most granular and comprehensive dataset on external borrowing by African governments thus far. Our project moves beyond existing aggregate datasets and instead releases information on individual loans and bonds, in particular on the financial terms of each instrument. Taken together, we cover nearly 7000 loans and bonds between 2000 and 2020, with a total volume of 644 billion USD. Using this data, we study Africa’s record lending boom of the 2010s in detail. The debt boom was mainly driven by large sovereign bond issuances in London and New York, as well as growing lending by Chinese state-owned banks. The micro data also reveal a large variation in lending terms across countries, time, and creditors. Sovereign external bonds have interest rates of 6 percent, on average, Chinese banks charge 2-4 percent, and multilateral organizations just 1 percent. Strikingly, many governments in Africa simultaneously borrow large amounts from both private and official creditors, at vastly different rates. The large differences in debt servicing costs are indicative of a cross-creditor subsidy, as cheap concessional loans can be used to pay the high interest to private or Chinese creditors.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Aid, Credit, and Influence
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

130. Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea: Those trying to curb it, and those standing in their way

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Ifriqiya Rina Bassist explains the implications of shifts in off-shore piracy around the African continent in the past decade. Piracy around the Gulf of Guinea, in particular, has been a headache in recent years, but some countries are more concerned about it than others.
Topic:: Crime, Law Enforcement, and Piracy
Political Geography:: Africa and Guinea

131. Looking Ahead: Trends and Solutions for 2022

Author:: Sarah Cliffe
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: It would be good to write a very optimistic piece at the dawn of 2022—and indeed we do try to focus in this piece not just on trends but on solutions. Yet, overall, it is impossible to avoid “telling it as it is”—internationally and for multilateral action, the year has not had an auspicious start. Omicron is sweeping through communities worldwide, with many hospital systems warning of the risk of being overwhelmed. The political instability of which we and many others have long warned, driven by economic and governance links, is coming to pass. Kazakhstan is the most recent example, but this also covers the quintupling of coups in Africa in 2021, and heightened polarization in many Western, Asian, and Latin American electoral processes.
Topic:: Governance, Multilateralism, Humanitarian Crisis, Instability, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Kazakhstan, Latin America, and West Asia

132. The South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Use of its Documentation: An Analysis

Author:: Proscovia Svard
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This paper investigates the extent to which the documentation that was generated by the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (SATRC) is being used to promote the healing of a post-apartheid society. Truth and Reconciliation Commissions (TRCs) are considered a primary human rights tool for post-conflict reconciliation and reconstruction. They investigate gross violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, uncover the truth, and promote forgiveness. In this regard, TRCs use restorative justice which focuses on the rehabilitation of perpetrators through reconciliation with victims. They offer a platform for victims and perpetrators to share their experiences in an endeavor to repair the social fabric damaged by violent or structural conflict.1 TRCs are expected to help post-conflict societies transition from a past of human rights violations to a democratic and peaceful post-conflict society where human rights are respected. TRCs, through the documentation they produce, make it hard for the perpetrators to deny the truth
Topic:: Apartheid, Discrimination, Reconciliation, and Truth
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

133. Tunisian society finds itself stuck in silence and limbo post-July 25

Author:: Zied Boussen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On 25 July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced a state of emergency for the country, along with drastic measures against what he considered to be a degradation of the State. Through an in-depth analysis of the current situation, this paper explores a so-far silent civil society and examines the political and social dynamics that will lead to a chasm between these actors and the public they are expected to mobilize.
Topic:: Civil Society, Social Movement, Political Activism, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

134. Why Tunisia’s parliamentary electoral formula needs to be changed

Author:: Alexander Martin and John Carey
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In light of the current political situation in Tunisia, this paper suggests that to avoid producing fragmented parliaments, the Tunisian electoral law should be amended and the Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula should be replaced. A switch to either the D’Hondt or St.Lague divisors formulas would produce clearer winners and losers and foster accountability while preserving the proportional representation (PR) system.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

135. Marine pollution: A growing concern for the southern suburb of Tunis

Author:: Khouloud Ayari
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The National Sanitation Utility (ONAS) organized a public consultation two months after a human chain demonstration took place on 12 September along the beaches of the southern suburb of Tunis. This article examines the timeline of events that took place to warn against sea degradation from 2013 until September 2021. It also provides feedback on the November 2021 public consultation, and offers insight into the current environmental issues at hand in both local and national contexts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Maritime, and Pollution
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

136. Tunisia: Youth take a stand for/against the president’s decisions and watch in limbo

Author:: Alessandra Bajec
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: After playing a key role in the 2011 revolution, most young Tunisians have grown fed up with politicians in their country as a result of successive political, economic and social failures that marred the democratic transition. Since the mass protests on 25 July 2021 that preceded President Saied’s power grab, a popular youth movement has reawakened to demand radical change. This paper looks at some of the diverging positions held by young Tunisians on the president’s actions, their hopes and concerns in the current phase of political turbulence.
Topic:: Social Movement, Youth, Participation, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

137. Mapping state capacity in Africa: Professionalism and reach

Author:: Matthias Krönke, Robert Mattes, and Vinothan Naidoo
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Whether depicted as bloated, extractive, or remote from the lives of ordinary citizens, the African state is widely seen to lack the necessary capacity to provide for the physical and material security of its citizens or to command legitimacy. Yet scholars have rarely attempted to assess the performance of the African state through the prism of the lived experiences of those whom the state is meant to serve – its citizens. Most studies rely on data supplied by national statistics agencies or the judgments of expert observers. And while scholars acknowledge that the quality of the African state is likely shaped by geographic and ethnic differences within countries, few have measured how state capacity varies at the sub-national level. In this paper, we address this situation by using survey research measures of respondents’ proximity to state services and actual experiences with civil servants to measure two distinct dimensions of the state salient to the African context: its reach, or physical presence at the grassroots across the breadth of a country, and its professionalism, or ability to deliver public services in a proficient and ethical manner. The results reveal new perspectives on which states excel on either or both dimensions. They also illustrate how widely state performance varies at the sub-national level. Finally, we use survey data to assess the performance of the state, and show that it is the degree of professionalism, and sometimes reach, that enables the state to provide security and welfare, satisfy demands, and secure popular legitimacy. But in contrast to usual expectations, the size of the state at senior levels has no impact.
Topic:: Nationalism, State Formation, State Building, Professionalism, and Subnationalism
Political Geography:: Africa

138. Footing the bill? Less legitimacy, more avoidance mark African views on taxation

Author:: Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Taxation is a key fiscal tool for domestic resource mobilization. In many African countries, however, weak tax-administration systems limit the ways in which governments can finance their development agendas and provide essential services such as health care, education, and infrastructure (Drummond, Daal, Srivastava, & Oliveira, 2012). The importance of raising resources through taxation has been heightened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments globally have confronted a sudden drop in tax revenue as many economic sectors have slowed amid lockdowns. Especially in developing countries, this shock has significantly curtailed governments’ ability to fund access to vital health, financial, and other services and assistance to those most affected by the pandemic (Gaspar, Hanif, Pazarbasioglu, & Saint-Amans, 2020). The reduction in tax revenue during the pandemic is likely to compound itself over time and limit how quickly developing economies can bounce back as governments lack the fiscal resources to stimulate growth. Even without a pandemic, tax revenues are relatively low across Africa. In 2019, 30 African countries averaged tax revenues totaling 16.6% of gross domestic product – half the 33.8% collected by member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/AUC/ATAF, 2021). In addition to capacity limitations of government tax agencies, low tax revenues can be related to macroeconomic factors such as large agricultural and informal sectors, which are typically hard to tax (Di John, 2006; Mansour & Keen, 2009; Coulibaly & Gandhi, 2018; Moore, Prichard, & Fjeldstad, 2018). One current debate concerns how to tax highly digitalized businesses – which operate in African countries without necessarily having an easily taxable physical presence – in a way that is fair and doesn’t impede the growth of start-up companies (African Tax Administration Forum, 2020). But low tax revenues can also reflect micro-level factors such as citizens’ limited willingness to pay taxes (“tax morale”), a lack of knowledge about what they owe and what their taxes are used for, and their perceptions of corruption in the tax administration (OECD, 2019). If citizens regard paying taxes as a fiscal exchange or contractual relationship (Moore, 2004), these factors can affect the perceived legitimacy of taxation as a whole (D’Arcy, 2011). Beyond short- and medium-term fiscal problems, this can also have a more fundamental impact on the legitimacy of governments and political systems. The ability to raise revenue through taxes is an important marker of state capacity and political legitimacy (Brautigam, Fjeldstad, & Moore, 2008), and may contribute to government responsiveness and accountability as taxpayers demand a return on their taxes (Moore et al., 2018). How do Africans see taxation? Afrobarometer survey data collected in 34 African countries in 2019/2021 show that a majority of Africans endorse their government’s right to collect taxes. But popular support for taxation has weakened over the past decade while perceptions that people often avoid paying their taxes have increased sharply. Moreover, many Africans question the fairness of their country’s tax burden, and only half think their government is using tax revenue for the well-being of its citizens. While a majority would pay higher taxes to support young people and national development, most say they find it difficult to get information about tax requirements and uses, and many see tax officials as corrupt and untrustworthy. Such perceptions may play a role in how willingly citizens support – and comply with – their government’s tax administration.
Topic:: Political stability, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and State Funding
Political Geography:: Africa

139. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Multi Party System, Partisanship, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

140. Sign of the Times: How the United Kingdom’s Integrated Review Affects Relations with Africa

Author:: Zainab Usman and Jonathan Glennie
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In March 2021, the British government published a vision document: “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.”1 Previously, the government had issued documents on security, defense, development, or foreign policy, but this integrated review bundled together all aspects of policy related to a vision of a so-called Global Britain. This newly integrated approach to policymaking mirrors a strategic consolidation within the UK government, specifically the merger of the Department for International Development (DFID) with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to become a new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). While the review is framed as a necessary response to a changing global landscape, domestic political considerations around the British exit from the European Union (Brexit) weigh heavily. The review also points to the current UK government’s inclination to prize geopolitical competition over a previous emphasis on global cooperation. Steep cuts to the UK’s generous foreign aid budget as well as the abolition of DFID have already drawn significant academic, policy, and media attention. Yet these actions are part of a broader UK strategy to redefine the country’s relations to the rest of the world, with significant implications beyond the controversial foreign aid cuts for poor countries, including those in Africa. The review will shape relations with a continent that has deep historical ties from the colonial era, a large diasporic presence, and long-standing economic relations with the UK. This analysis draws out the implications of the UK’s 2021 integrated review for African countries and recommends next steps for African and other international stakeholders to navigate the UK’s overhauled external relations strategy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, and Integration
Political Geography:: Africa and United Kingdom

141. Negotiating Local Business Practices With China in Benin

Author:: Folashade Soule
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Commercial negotiations between Benin and China demonstrate how both sides navigate the dynamics of Africa-China business-to-business relationships. In Benin, Chinese and local Beninese officials engaged in drawn-out negotiations on a deal to construct a business center aimed at deepening business links between Chinese and Beninese merchants. Strategically located in Cotonou, Benin’s principal economic city, the center aims to promote investment and wholesale businesses by serving as a hub for China’s business-to-business relations not just in Benin but regionally in West Africa, especially in the large and growing neighboring market of Nigeria. This paper relies on original research and fieldwork conducted in Benin from 2015 to 2021 and the author’s access to draft and final contracts from the negotiations, which allow for a side-by-side comparative textual analysis, as well as initial field interviews and follow-up interviews with key negotiators, Beninese businessmen, and former Beninese students in China. The paper shows how Chinese and Beninese authorities negotiated the establishment of the center and, above all, how Beninese authorities made Chinese negotiators adapt to local Beninese labor, construction, and legal norms and put pressure on their Chinese counterparts. This strategy meant that negotiations took longer than usual to complete. China-Africa cooperation is often characterized by speedy negotiations, an approach that in some cases turns out to be harmful—since this can allow vague and unfair clauses to be featured in final contracts. The negotiations over the Chinese business center in Benin is a good example of how well-coordinated negotiators that take their time and work in coordination with various counterparts throughout the government can help facilitate better outcomes in terms of high-quality infrastructure and compliance with prevailing construction, labor, environmental, and business norms, while also preserving a good bilateral relationship with China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Bilateral Relations, and Business
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Benin

142. How Inequality and Polarization Interact: America’s Challenges Through a South African Lens

Author:: Brian Levy
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Over the past decade, toxic interactions between persistent inequality, racial tensions, and political polarization have undercut the promise of South Africa’s so-called rainbow miracle transition from apartheid to democracy. South Africa’s recent history sheds light on the United States’ recent political travails. It illustrates how interactions between inclusion and inequality on the one hand and political ideas and entrepreneurship on the other can fuel positive spirals of hope, economic dynamism, and political legitimacy—but can also trigger vicious, downward spirals of disillusion, anger, and political polarization. South Africa was able to transition from a society structured around racial oppression into a nonracial democracy whose new government promised “a better life for all.” Especially remarkable was the speed with which one set of national ideas appeared to give way to its polar opposite. From a society marked by racial dominance and oppression, there emerged the aspiration to build an inclusive, cooperative social order, underpinned by the principles of equal dignity and shared citizenship. In the initial glow of transition, South Africa’s citizens could hope for a better life for themselves and their children. In time, though, the promise wore thin. It became increasingly evident that the economic deck would continue to be stacked, and that the possibility of upward mobility would remain quite limited. Fueled by massive continuing inequities in wealth, income, and opportunity, South Africans increasingly turned from hope to anger. In the United States, a steady and equitably growing economy and a vibrant civil rights movement had fostered the hope of social and economic inclusion. But that hope turned to anger as the benefits of growth became increasingly skewed from the 1980s onward. In 2019, the U.S. economy was more unequal than it had been since the 1920s. Younger generations could no longer expect that their lives would be better than those of their parents. Such economic adversity and associated status anxiety can trigger a heightened propensity for us-versus-them ways of engaging the world. In both South Africa and the United States, polarization was fueled by divisive political entrepreneurs, and in both countries, these entrepreneurs leveraged inequality in ways that added fuel to the fire. In the 2010s, South Africa went through a new ideational reckoning, in part to correct the view that the transition to democracy had washed the country’s apartheid history clean. But opportunistic political entrepreneurs also pushed an increasingly polarized and re-racialized political discourse and pressure on public institutions, with predictable economic consequences. South Africa’s economy slid into sustained stagnation. Paralleling South Africa, America’s divisive political entrepreneurs also cultivated an us-versus-them divisiveness. However, unlike in South Africa, political entrepreneurs and economic elites in the United States also used divisive rhetoric as a way to persuade voters to embrace inequality-increasing policies that might otherwise not have won support. By the late 2010s, the risks were palpable in both South Africa and the United States of an accelerating breakdown of the norms and institutions that sustain inclusive political settlements. For South Africa, the reversals were not wholly unexpected, given the country’s difficult inheritance—though a recent turn away from angry populism suggests that, paradoxically, the rawness and recency of the anti-apartheid struggle and triumph might perhaps offer some immunization against a further-accelerating a downward spiral. But for the United States, the converse may be true. Increases in inequality since the 1980s, and their attendant social and political consequences, have been largely self-inflicted wounds. Complacency bred of long stability may, for decades, have been lulling the country into political recklessness at the inequality-ethnicity intersection, a recklessness that risks plunging the country into disaster. But this paper’s analysis is not all gloom and doom. South Africa’s escape from the shackles of apartheid teaches that, even in the most unlikely settings, downward spirals of despair and anger can transmute into virtuous spirals of hope. The country’s first fifteen years of democracy also show that, once a commitment to change has taken hold, making the shift to an inclusion-supporting economy is less daunting than it might seem. Reforms that foster “good enough inclusion” can be enough to provide initial momentum, with the changes themselves unfolding over time—and an initial round of change can bring in its wake a variety of positive knock-on effects. But lessons can be overlearned. Mass political mobilization was pivotal to South Africa’s shaking loose the shackles of apartheid—and new calls to the barricades might seem to be the obvious response to current political and governmental dysfunction. However, different times and different challenges call for different responses. In both contemporary South Africa and contemporary America, the frontier challenge is not to overthrow an unjust political order but to renew preexisting formal commitments to the idea that citizenship implies some shared purpose. Renewal of this kind might best be realized not by confrontation but rather by a social movement centered around a vision of shared citizenship, a movement that views cooperation in pursuit of win-win possibilities not as weakness but as the key to the sustainability of thriving, open, and inclusive societies.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

143. The effectiveness of social protection in five African countries through normal times and times of crisis

Author:: Katrin Gasior, Iva V. Tasseva, and Gemma Wright
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: We study the effectiveness of social protection benefits in reducing income and consumption poverty in five sub-Saharan African countries—Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia—in normal times and times of widespread economic crisis. Using tax–benefit microsimulation models with representative household survey data, first we estimate the coverage of benefits and their poverty-reducing effects in each country. Second, we study the ability of benefit automatic stabilizers to reduce losses in incomes and consumption in times of crisis, by simulating hypothetical reductions to earnings and employment. Although the coverage of benefits is fairly high in Ghana and Zambia, the poverty-reducing impact of benefits in all five countries is low in normal times. The effectiveness of benefits to stabilize income and consumption in times of crisis is also limited because many benefits are linked to proxies of income, not income itself, or have tight eligibility criteria. Social assistance programmes are typically unresponsive to losses in household earnings and employment and provide limited support for unemployed people.
Topic:: Poverty, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, and Income
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Ghana

144. The impact of COVID-19 on urban informal workers in Maputo

Author:: Nilifer Anaç, Eva-Maria Egger, Sam Jones, Ricardo Santos, and Alex Warren-Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Informal self-employed traders in developing countries are vulnerable to shocks as they often lack access to social insurance or formal finance. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these urban traders in the capital of Mozambique, Maputo. Drawing on longitudinal phone survey data over six months, we find they experienced significant negative shocks to earnings, leading to a reduction in savings as well as worsening food security and assets. Individuals simultaneously affected by a municipal policy to remove informal traders from a central market were hit particularly hard as they lost their clients and market stalls. We simulate that a cash transfer equivalent to the government’s proposed COVID-19 response would have significantly buffered these shocks. The findings point to the need for a more shock-responsive social protection system, easy access to liquidity and provision of market infrastructure for informal traders.
Topic:: Urban, Trade, COVID-19, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

145. The determinants of domestic saving in Kenya

Author:: Rodgers Musamali, Cecilia Mutia, and Rose Ngugi
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The savings–growth nexus is widely acknowledged, both in policy and in the literature. But Kenya’s numerous policy initiatives to encourage savings mobilization are yet to yield the expected outcomes. This paper identifies the key drivers of domestic saving in Kenya, exploiting fintech as an alternative channel for savings mobilization, and drawing lessons from the Kenyan experience so far. Using data from various sources, and employing an autoregressive distributive lag estimation model, we find that in the long run, private saving is positively and significantly influenced by the per capita income growth rate, inflation, and age dependency ratio, and negatively influenced by the public saving rate and terms of trade. National saving is positively and significantly influenced by the per capita income growth rate, inflation, and private sector credit growth rates in the long run. Wealth and deposit rates negatively influence national saving. Based on these findings, we recommend the following interventions to grow savings in Kenya: creating decent employment opportunities to enhance income growth; providing sustained financial development with a focus on savings mobilization; creating an enabling environment for the private sector; taking advantage of Kenya’s young population; exploiting mobile money platforms to boost savings. Moreover, households show targeted saving behaviour where they accumulate financial savings and then transform them into savings in kind. Therefore, accounting for savings should go beyond the traditional focus on bank deposits and incorporate savings held in other forms. Households also use non-formal platforms for saving, and we suggest that existing barriers to formal saving platforms be removed to direct more saving into formal channels.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Saving, Income, and Fintech
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

146. Agricultural risks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and farm household welfare and diversification strategies in Africa

Author:: Abdul Malik Iddrisu, Alhassan Abdul-Wakeel Karakara, and Evans S. Osabuohien
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Agricultural activities in many African countries are bedevilled by a range of risk factors. Using micro-level household datasets from a range of countries in Africa, we examine the drivers of agricultural risks, while exploring the role of context as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household welfare, with a focus on farm households relative to their non-farm counterparts. We demonstrate that the probability of experiencing risks related to agriculture is significantly influenced by a range of individual- and farm-level/contextual factors, with these effects showing considerable variations across contexts and countries in Africa. We also find that farm households witnessed important reductions in their incomes during the COVID-19 period in Uganda. The study contributes to the design of evidence-based approaches to reducing farmers’ vulnerabilities to agricultural risks and pandemic-related shocks.
Topic:: Agriculture, Welfare, COVID-19, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa

147. The effect of wage subsidies on job retention: Evidence from South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:: Timothy Köhler, Robert Hill, and Haroon Bhorat
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Wage subsidies have served as a primary labour market policy used around the world to mitigate job losses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, where unemployment is among the highest globally, the Temporary Employer–Employee Relief Scheme supported millions of workers in a far-reaching and progressive manner. We make use of unique labour force panel data to estimate the causal effect of the policy on short-term job retention among formal private sector workers, who represent the majority of workers in the country, by exploiting a temporary institutional eligibility detail and estimating a difference-in-differences model. We find that the policy increased the probability of remaining employed by 16 percentage points in the short-term. This finding holds when subjected to several robustness tests. We further estimate heterogeneous and progressive effects across the wage distribution with larger effects observed for lower-wage workers, against a backdrop of regressively distributed job loss in the country. Our analysis provides evidence on the role of wage subsidies in the mitigation of job loss during crises in developing countries.
Topic:: Employment, Wage Subsidies, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Job Loss
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

148. Unravelling Africa’s raw material footprints and their drivers

Author:: Albert Kwame Osei-Owusu, Michael Danquah, and Edgar Towa
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper applies an environmentally extended input–output analysis, leveraging the Eora database, to estimate the global raw material footprints of 51 African nations from 1995 to 2015. It employs least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and panel regression models to quantify the effects of diverse variables on Africa’s raw material footprints. The findings show that the raw material footprints of Africa’s production and consumption soared by 41 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, from 1995 to 2015, mainly driven by biomass and construction materials. They show that Africa outsources 25 per cent of its raw material footprints from consumption, while over 60 per cent of its footprints from production arise from its exports. Our findings beckon African governments to reduce the excessive focus on exploitation and concentrate on combatting corruption and extreme rent-seeking while decoupling Africa’s raw material footprints from rising public debt, carbon emissions, income levels, and population.
Topic:: Economics, Carbon Emissions, Public Debt, Income, Raw Materials, and Input-Output Analysis
Political Geography:: Africa

149. Fintech in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Njuguna Ndung'u
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper traces the development of fintech in sub-Saharan Africa, its evolution over time, and the unfolding benefits attained at each stage of its adoption and market evolution. From the onset, fintechs have revolutionized retail electronic payment systems—a revolution that has evolved into a technological platform to manage micro-savers’ accounts, virtual savings and credit systems, public financial management, and cross-border remittances, and has led to the adoption of new monetary policy frameworks. The uptake of fintech products has led to increased financial inclusion for underserved and unserved populations, improvement of welfare, and the efficient and cost-effective provision of services across all sectors of the economy. The paper also outlines the challenges that persist and need to be addressed to allow the rapid uptake of fintech products and solutions in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper concludes that the fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by fintech, has the potential to propel the continent to higher levels of savings, investments, employment, and inclusive growth, provided an appropriate legal and regulatory framework is put in place and resources are channelled for sufficient infrastructural development.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Inclusion, Savings, and Fintech
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

150. Determinants of corporate cash holdings in South Africa

Author:: Ewa Karwowski, Hanna Szymborska, Keagile Lesame, and Tlhologelo Thoka
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Globally, corporate cash holdings have risen since the 1980s. In South Africa, some commentators have accused corporations of engaging in an ‘investment strike’, while others see corporate liquidity as a precaution against systemic uncertainty. We use the unique South African Revenue Service/National Treasury firm-level dataset to scrutinize corporate liquidity, using panel analysis. Relative to GDP, corporate cash and liquidity holdings have not increased between 2010 and 2017. However, corporate cash is high in international comparison and has grown at the firm level. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that companies are engaging in an investment strike. Cash and liquidity are shaped by idiosyncratic and sectoral risk factors. In the short run, heightened uncertainty might reduce corporate cash and liquidity as firms struggle to adjust to an unexpected economic situation. In the medium run, we find a strong association between political uncertainty and corporate cash and liquidity holdings.
Topic:: Economics, Corporations, Liquidity, and Cash
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Global Focus

151. Return migration and entrepreneurship in Cameroon

Author:: Sévérin Tamwo, Ghislain Stéphane, Gandjon Fankem, and Dieudonné Taka
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, we examine the determinants of the entrepreneurial behaviour of returnees to Cameroon based on original survey data from 2012. Contrary to the existing literature, we focus on the skills received from abroad without omitting the effect of savings. We distinguish between three types of competences related to qualifications. We also differentiate between the probability of starting a business in the primary sector and the probability of starting a business in the tertiary sector. The main results, obtained from a probit model, show that: (i) degrees and qualifications and qualifications acquired abroad do not positively influence the probability of migrants to undertake a new activity once back home; in contrast, accumulated savings, captured by the time spent abroad, have a positive influence; (ii) other qualifications have no influence on the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants; and (iii) the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants is not oriented towards the primary sector but rather towards the tertiary sector. These results are robust when we account for endogeneity.
Topic:: Migration, Entrepreneurship, Economy, and Skills
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

152. Current Capabilities and Future Potential of African Textile & Apparel Value Chains: Focus on West Africa

Author:: Lindsay Whitfield
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: African countries export very little of what is traded within apparel global supply chains and across the African continent, except in the case of cotton, but import a large amount of what the rest of the world produces. Africa’s fabric and apparel production is biased towards cotton, especially in yarn and fabric production, with little participation in production and export of man-made fibre, yarn and fabric. Most apparel exports from the continent come from North Africa, followed far behind by East and Southern Africa. Apparel exports from the African continent go largely to Europe and then North America. Currently, only 8% of Africa’s textile and apparel imports are supplied by other African suppliers. Southern Africa and especially South Africa is the largest supplier of intra-African imports of apparel. Inputs and intermediate textile products account for a significant share of intra-African textile and apparel imports in Southern, East and North Africa. Notably, under the free trade area in the Southern African Development Community, trade in clothes and home textiles increased, but trade in fibre, yarn and fabric did not significantly change. Overall, intra-African sources still account for a small share of these countries’ overall supplies of imported inputs, which indicates a substantial untapped potential. West Africa produces about 60% of Africa’s cotton but accounts for the bulk of its exports outside the continent, accounting for about 5% of the world cotton production and about 15% of world exportation. However, West African countries have little modern production capabilities in spinning, weaving, knitting or dyeing. A significant portion of the population in West Africa buys wax print cloth and has their clothes tailor made. The majority of the greige fabric used by the wax printing companies in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, which supply the rest of the sub-region, is imported from Asia. Only Ghana has industrial or mass apparel production for export, and it is small, comprised largely of two firms that started exporting in the late 2010s with foreign investment. Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire have some small-scale local firms producing for the domestic market, but most of these firms do not have the capabilities to grow into large firms that could produce using industrial methods. The governments of Togo, Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana are adopting new strategies to develop apparel exports in their countries. However, only the Togolese government has started implementing its strategy, which centres on an eco-industrial park and vertically integrated knit factories established through a public-private partnership with Arise Integrated Industrial Platform. Given the disruptions to globalized apparel supply chains during the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting increased cost of shipping, buyers in the US and Europe are looking for shorter supply chains that are more resilient in the face of global shocks. Localization and regionalization of apparel production closer to end-markets are attractive to global apparel brands and retailers. However, global apparel buyers are no longer concerned just with cost, quality and speed to market when making sourcing decisions. They now must balance those criteria with sustainability goals. CBDS Working Paper 2022/3 5 Given the global trends outlined in this report that will reshape textile and apparel global supply chains over the next five to ten years, the textile and apparel industry should be reconceived as a sunrise and not a sunset industry. New fibre and recycling technologies are in a phase of fast innovation to produce more sustainable and circular man-made fibres. The raw material for clothing production will become manufactured fibres that rely on advancements in chemical technologies and biofabrication. Virgin cotton will be of less importance, as it is replaced by natural fibres that are less resource intensive and by manmade cellulosic fibres that feel like cotton. In the transition stage, cotton will move to organic and regenerative as well as become blended with other natural and man-made cellulosic fibres. Future fibres will have a high technology content and require licensing technology, both man-made cellulosic fibres and the new wave of synthetics that seek to replace polymers. African countries have the opportunity to build sustainable textile and apparel industries from the start, which can give them a competitive advantage as apparel-supplying countries in South and Southeast Asia do not (yet) have ‘green’ industries. The cost of renewable energy technology is falling and renewable energy technologies to power industries are evolving. New fibre and recycling technologies also offer a window of opportunity to leapfrog into the next generation of technologies. Taking advantage of this window of opportunity requires that the African government look forward and not backward, that they think in terms of building new and not rebuilding the existing textile industries. African textile and apparel domestic and regional value chains should be based on mastering the next generation of fibre production and recycling technologies. Such a strategy involves taking risks to invest in building the knowledge and skills required for this new technology, but not taking risks will mean that African countries miss the opportunity to move to the technological frontier. Furthermore, African countries can go beyond becoming competitive in the new textile and apparel global supply chains but also use them to drive broader green industrialization processes. Such a strategy also involves building diversified regional textile bases as well as regional value chains, which can harness the efforts of more economies and larger market demand as well as create a stronger platform of capabilities with which to engage in global export markets. AfCFTA negotiations on the rules of origin for the textile and apparel sector are on-going, and the AfCFA Council of Ministers responsible for trade is still working on reaching a consensus. The evidence assembled in this report shows that the textile production capabilities in the major apparel producing and exporting countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are not significant enough to support trade under a double transformation rule. Therefore, major investments in spinning, knitting, weaving, dyeing, and finishing are required before countries could take advantage of the preferential market access for textile and apparel in the AfCFTA with a double transformation rule. The quantitative and qualitative evidence presented in this report on the impact of the double transformation rule under SADC indicates that it did not encourage new investments in textile production, and thus regional integration was limited by existing textile production capabilities. CBDS Working Paper 2022/3 6 Trade rules are not strong enough incentives to encourage investments in textile production. In general, trade policy is a rather blunt instrument for addressing a task that requires a range of more sophisticated industrial policy tools. Instead of relying solely on trade policy tools, governments should design and develop industrial policies that actively support the learning processes of local firms. Part of the industrial policy tool kit to support local firm learning is attracting the ‘right kind of foreign direct investment’ and assisting local firms in leveraging technology from these foreign firms. Governments also need to make public investments in creating the industry-specific knowledge and skills for textile and apparel, which includes building the foundation for moving into new fiber and recycling technologies through investment in basic chemistry education and supporting partnerships in research between local and foreign firms and researchers.
Topic:: Markets, Business, Trade, Supply Chains, Value Chains, and Textile Industry
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

153. Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.
Topic:: Energy Policy, European Union, Gas, and Diversification
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa

154. Cumulative climate shocks and migratory flows: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, and Drought
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

155. Mapping climate adaptation finance in Kenya's devolved governance system: a case of Makueni County

Author:: Judith Mulwa and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: These years, countries are coming up with policies, laws and regulations aimed at mobilising finances to fund response measures for climate change adaptation. It is, therefore, imperative that these finances, among others, are mapped out so that we can track the measures that are financed, the types of financing that are used, and ultimately look at whether the available funds are meeting their objectives in the ways that they are being spent. Kenya is among the first countries to develop policies, strategies and institutional frameworks for climate action, creating a policy and legal environment to advance an effective climate change response. And specifically, Kenya’s Makueni County has enacted county-level climate change regulation as part of the implementation of the national agenda on climate change. The Makueni county government and its partners have made significant efforts to build the capacity to integrate climate information into CIDPs and apply it to resilience planning and budgeting processes. Doing so, Makueni County has been able to attract climate finance in the recent past. The integration of climate financing in the budgetary processes and allocation is an important example that other counties and governance institutions could embrace to attract climate financing and to ensure that impact of the financing is felt at community level. This DIIS Working Paper is a first step at exploring these dynamics, looking at the main types of devolved public funds from the Kenyan ministries and at how Makueni has adapted local institutions and policies to meet local needs of financing for adaptation activities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Finance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

156. Devolution of donor funded climate change adaptation finance

Author:: Per Tidemand, Andrew Hattle, Esbern Friis-Hansen, Beatrice Sumari, Peter Rogers, Judith Mulwa, and Millicent Omala
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: From 2013-2019 Tanzania received USD 2.0 billion as adaptation-related development finance, whereas Kenya received USD 3.3 billion. Based on the OECD database, this DIIS Working Paper analysis projects based on their financial value, measured as ‘adaptation-related development finance’. This is combined with an analysis of the project documents to measure degree of devolution was developed with three main parameters: the extent to which finance was managed through local government accounts; the extent to which the projects in the respective national budgets were considered devolved; and the use of participatory planning arrangements for management of the funds. Given Kenya’s greater emphasis on devolution, its fiscal strengths, and the autonomy of its counties, when compared to Tanzanian local governments, it was assumed that adaptation-related development finance would be relatively more devolved in Kenya than Tanzania. However, preliminary analysis suggests otherwise. The analysis also suggests that projects classified by development partners as ‘adaptation-related development finance’ in several cases exaggerate levels of funding and only contribute marginally to improved local governance of climate adaption activities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Finance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, and Tanzania

157. Characterisation of Danish agricultural investments in Tanzania and Uganda

Author:: Rikke Broegaard, Helle Monk Ravnborg, Evelyne Lazaro, Teddy Nakanwagi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper presents key characteristics of each of the six cases including main crop focus, size and business model, as well as types of investors, their investment approach and the factors that motivate them. It also presents the different objectives that the investors have expressed wanting to achieve. As most of the investments involve private funds, it is reasonable to expect that one important goal is to ensure a viable economy in the investment. However, in addition to an economically sound investment, all of the investors behind these six cases have ambitions regarding ways in which they see themselves - through the investment - as contributors towards a positive societal development in the area of the investment. Thus, the paper presents the different ways the investors see their investments contributing to development in the area. The paper is based on interviews with the investors and field work in the areas of investments.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Food, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, Tanzania, and Africa

158. Why Most Communities in Zimbabwe Are Embracing the Right2SayNo

Author:: Farai Maguwu
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: A new scramble for Africa’s natural resources is leaving communities more impoverished, oppressed, and traumatized. Enriching the ruling elites and mul- tinational corporations, the withdrawal of natural resources from the Earth con- tributes to land and water grabs, violence, intimidation, desecration of cultural heritage sites, pollution of water sources, and poverty in communities hosting natural resources. Whereas exploitation of natural resources is expected to boost local economies and improve livelihoods, the lived realities of host communities in Zimbabwe demonstrate that living standards decline when natural resource extraction occurs. There is often trading of accusations between government and extractive industries on the problem of whose responsibility it is to develop resource-rich communities. Corruption and a rent-seeking culture have weakened governance, leading to social stratification, class formations, and entrenched autocratic rule. Access to resource rents is also turning the focus of government away from other more sustainable sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. This paradox of plenty, also known as the resource curse, confirms the long-held view that countries with abundant natural resource reserves are prone to poverty, confliict, and poor governance. In these countries, natural resources are sometimes used to finance violence, repression, and rigged elections.
Topic:: Corruption, Natural Resources, Elites, Value Extraction, and Rent-seeking
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

159. Russia Steps up its Campaign for Influence in Africa

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses Russian propaganda and paramilitary strategies used to gain influence in recent years in various countries in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Propaganda, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Sahel, and Central African Republic

160. Rethinking Military Responses to Terrorism and Insurgency in Nigeria

Author:: Maurice Ogbonnaya
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Since 2003, terrorist insurgency in Nigeria has occasioned complex security and humanitarian crises, especially in the northeast region of the country. Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group from the region, has killed over 30,000 people and caused the displacement of more than 3 million others within the Lake Chad Basin region. Military responses by the Nigerian state and in collaboration with multilateral security agencies have achieved limited success. This paper not only questions the adequacy of military responses to terrorism, as a standalone approach, but it also advances the argument in the extant literature on the obsolescence of excessive militarization of counterterrorism operations as a security management strategy. It suggests the adoption of a more comprehensive and broad-based strategic approach. This is predicated on the limitations of purely military operations in counterterrorism, noting that military responses alone are structurally not designed to deal with the fundamental root causes of terrorism. In this regard, the paper advocates for a combination of military and other non-military counterterrorism approaches that seek to address the fundamental factors that give rise to terrorism.
Topic:: Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Economic Inequality, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

161. Country, Culture or Competition - What Drives Attitudes Towards Immigrants in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Author:: Malte Becker, Ralf Krüger, and Tobias Heidland
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming an increasingly important destination for international migration. The region hosts immigrants from other African countries and from other parts of the world, such as China. Given high poverty levels and weak social security systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, host populations might fear increasing competition for resources and labor, potentially resulting in negative attitudes towards immigrants. We provide the first systematic study of attitudes towards immigrants in Sub-Saharan African countries that uses a causal framework. Using a survey experiment in Uganda and Senegal, we study both attitudes towards immigrants in general and towards specific immigrant groups. In particular, we focus on Chinese immigrants, whose increasing presence in Africa is seen by many as the most important contemporary geopolitical shift involving the continent. We find that attitudes towards immigrants are mainly driven by sociotropic cultural and sociotropic economic concerns. Furthermore, immigrants from China are perceived less positively and economically more threatening than immigrants in general.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Immigration, Sustainability, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Africa and China

162. Africa's Great Moderation

Author:: Sebastian Krantz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), African economies have experienced remarkable improvements in macroeconomic conditions, characterized by higher and more stable real per-capita growth rates, and lower and more stable inflation. This paper documents the persistent decline in macroeconomic volatility at the aggregate and sectoral levels, and seeks to provide explanations. Sectoral analysis shows a particularly strong reduction of growth volatility in agriculture, and, to a lesser extent, in services. Analysis of a broad range of explanatory factors yields that only a small fraction of the moderation can be explained by structural change, and changes in major structural characteristics such as institutions, trade intensity and diversification, natural resource dependence, or conflict incidence. Evidence suggests that changes in the external environment, improved macroeconomic policy frameworks, and ’softer’ structural improvements such as the deepening of the financial sector and increases in human capital, were important towards reducing volatility on the continent.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Institutions, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Resilience, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Africa

163. Child Sexual Abuse in Botswana: An Evaluation of The Effectiveness of Child Protection Institutions in selected villages

Author:: Thabile A. Samboma
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) in Botswana is a big social problem with proven lifelong effects on the victims. Botswana has established various child protection institutions (CPI) and amended children’s protection laws to ensure that children are safe from all harm. However, despite this development, Botswana CSA cases are still rising. This study provides the first attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of child protection institutions in Botswana. A case study method was used in Old Naledi and Letlhakeng through an indepth interview with twenty-two (22) participants. The findings of the study revealed that there is;(i) the absence of a national child strategy, (ii) poor coordination of child protection institutions, (iii) weak child legislation framework, (iv) lack of capacity, (v) inadequately financed child protection, (vi) lack of systematic data collection, (vii) lack of evidence-based research, (viii) Decline of family structure and (iv) lack of public awareness. All these combined hinder the effectiveness of child protection institutions in Botswana. The study recommends as follows: reviewing the Children’s Act of 2009, developing a national child protection strategy, strengthening coordination of CPI, increasing resource allocation, creating a centralised database on CSA and strengthening evidence-based research on CSA in Botswana.
Topic:: Children, Institutions, Protection, and Child Sexual Abuse (CSA)
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

164. A Survey of Importers: Results of a Survey Conducted in Collaboration with the Ethiopian Economics Association

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Tim Cheston, Nikita Taniparti, and Ibrahim Worku Hassen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Ethiopia suffers from a chronic shortage of foreign exchange (forex).[1] The resulting lack of access to imports prevents firms from accessing imported inputs required for production. This creates a vicious cycle as exporters are constrained by this same problem, which further reduces overall supply of foreign exchange in the Ethiopian economy. The inability to reliably access foreign exchange for imports affects firm decisions on sourcing, capacity, and output. While the cost of this constraint is known to be high on the Ethiopian economy and firms are known to use a range of measures to attempt to bypass this constraint, quantitative assessments of the problem and response actions by firms are limited. It is in this context that an importer survey was conducted with the goal of informing policy decisions. A total of 202 firms with an active importing license were interviewed in March-April 2022. These firms were randomly sampled from firms registered with an importer license. All firms interviewed reported that they were operating below capacity, often well below capacity. Foreign exchange shortages were the main reason respondent firms cited for not operating at full capacity (63% of firms reporting this as their biggest constraint). Forex shortages far surpass the second and third reasons cited for not operating at full capacity — constraints due to the conflict (13%) and COVID-19 restrictions (11%). Firms operating below capacity cited forex shortages as the main constraint, regardless of whether they imported or not in the previous year. This was the most pressing constraint reported by firms of all sizes and sectors surveyed. It was the most pressing constraint faced by exporters and by foreign-owned firms as well as non-exporters and domestic firms. Amongst the total sample of firms with a renewed importer license, more than one-third of respondent firms (37%) had not imported in FY2020-21. Overall, 74% of firms reported experiencing challenges in accessing forex. Access to forex was reported as most challenging for manufacturing firms and smaller firms but impacted all sectors and firm sizes. The losses attributed to forex scarcity at the firm level were largest for agricultural firms, for micro-firms, and for firms that did not import at all in the previous year. In general, the larger the firm sales, the higher the likelihood that they were able import. The survey found different types of imports for different sectors. Manufacturing firms imported a large share semi-finished goods as imports as compared to agricultural firms that primarily imported finished goods. The survey results find that foreign exchange shortages and an inability to import are most severe for the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, small and micro-sized firms, and all non-exporters. However, the constraint is also the top problem facing all firm types in the survey, including exporters and foreign-owned firms. The primary means of accessing foreign exchange where it did occur was through specialized forex accounts or ‘diaspora’ accounts. The second most common means of accessing foreign exchange was through retention accounts available to exporters. The black market featured in many responses, but questions across the survey suggest that self-reported use of the black market by survey participants is underreported versus actual usage. The ability to source foreign exchange differed significantly by firm size. Exporting firms primarily used retention account earnings, as compared to non-exporters, which relied more on forex accounts. For faster access to forex, most firms reported that they approach banks, followed by turning to the black market. Friends and family abroad also served as a source of forex for one-quarter of firm respondents, and that foreign exchange was often used immediately. Foreign exchange access from banks is nevertheless a major pain point for firms. Most firms (55%) requested forex from a bank in the past year. On average, fulfilled forex requests took three months to be processed when they were fulfilled, but many firms reported that they have an unfulfilled request that has been in the system for more than a year. These firms are especially likely to report foreign exchange access as their top challenge. The survey finds that individual firms do not tend to use both official and black-market foreign exchange sources but rather tend to access all their forex at the (lower) official rate or all at the (higher) black-market. Large firms import most of their products at the official rate. By contrast, most small and micro firms import through other means. Manufacturing firms are also more likely to import all their production through other means and outside of the banking system. Non-exporting firms tended to import through other means than the official rate and outside of the banking system at a higher prevalence than exporting firms. The survey gleaned new insights on the implicit exchange rate that firms face as they navigate official and black-market channels of foreign exchange access. The survey does not allow for a precise estimate of the transaction-weighted exchange rate facing the economy but finds firm-level estimates align with previous macro-level estimates. The implicit exchange rate was higher for non-exporting firms, which show a greater willingness to pay a higher exchange rate to access imports. This signals the importance of the retention account for exporters to guarantee an import price closer to the official exchange rate. When asked about the maximum rate firms would pay to guarantee access to forex, some groups of firms were willing to pay higher amounts, including all non-exporters, firms that imported in the past year, and those that declared forex access a challenge. When compared to the implied rate they paid in the past year, many firms are willing to pay more than the implied rate to guarantee access to forex. Firm perspectives on policy changes to the exchange rate underscored challenges faced by policymakers. Current policy has been one of a crawling peg, with changes within the last several years to increase the rate of devaluation. The survey asked respondents about their support for faster devaluation, for a one-off movement to unify the official rate with the black-market rate, or about alternative exchange rate systems such as a floating exchange rate. Most respondents (71%) opposed maintaining the current regime, yet no option received majority support. Most firms appear to want both a stronger exchange rate and easier access to foreign exchange despite a tradeoff between these two priorities. The largest share of support for policy change was to adjust the exchange rate such that the official rate matches the black-market rate.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Imports, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

165. Development in a Complex World: The Case of Ethiopia: A Compendium of Project Research on Advancing Economic Diversification in Ethiopia

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Tim Cheston, Ibrahim Worku Hassen, and Can Soylu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This research compendium provides an explanation of Ethiopia’s fundamental economic challenge of slowing economic growth after an exceptional growth acceleration — a challenge that has been compounded by COVID-19, conflict, and climate change impacts. Ethiopia has experienced exceptional growth since the early 2000s but began to see a slowdown in the capacity of the economy to grow, export, and produce jobs since roughly 2015. This intensified a set of macroeconomic challenges, including high, volatile, and escalating inflation. This compendium identifies a path forward for more sustainable and inclusive growth that builds on the government’s Homegrown Economic Reform strategy. It includes growth diagnostics and economic complexity research as well as applications to unpack interacting macroeconomic distortions and inform diversification strategies. Drawing on lessons from past success in Ethiopia and new constraints, this compendium offers insights into what the Government of Ethiopia and the international community must do to unlock resilient, post-conflict economic recovery across Ethiopia. The research across the chapters of this compendium was developed during the Growth Lab’s research project in Ethiopia from 2019 to 2022, supported through a grant by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID). This research effort, which was at times conducted in close collaboration with government and non-government researchers in Ethiopia, pushed the boundaries of Growth Lab research. The project team worked to understand to intensive shocks faced by the country and enable local capability building in the context of limited government resources in a very low-income country. Given the value of this learning, this compendium not only discusses challenges and opportunities in Ethiopia in significant detail but also describes how various tools of diagnostic work and economic strategy-building were used in practice. As such, it aims to serve as a teaching resource for how economic tools can be applied to unique development contexts. The compendium reveals lessons for Ethiopian policymakers regarding the country’s development path as well as numerous lessons that the development community and development practitioners can learn from Ethiopia.
Topic:: Development, Economic Growth, Diversification, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

166. A Euro-Mediterranean Green Deal? Towards A Green Economy In The Southern Mediterranean

Author:: Julia Choucair Vizoso
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The transition to a green economy requires nothing short of a major, structural transformation of economic models, domestic and global. The scale and pace of the change needed and the high level of uncertainty require bold commitments, cooperation, innovation and experimentation across sectors, stakeholders and countries – a fierce challenge for the globe, well beyond the shores of the Mediterranean. Each chapter in this study includes domain-specific and country- specific findings and proposes recommendations on how to accelerate the green economy in the particular context. Due to the social, economic and political heterogeneity in the region, it is obvious that a “one size fits all” solution is not suitable. Nonetheless, common findings and recommendations do emerge across the case studies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

167. Great Expectations: Defining A Trans-Mediterranean Cybersecurity Agenda

Author:: Patryk Pawlak
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: European Union (EU) cooperation on cybersecurity with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is conditioned by two competing claims. Due to the geographical proximity and broad security implications for the EU, the MENA region is one of the priorities of the EU’s external relations. Over the past two decades, and especially after the Arab Spring, the EU has invested significant resources to support the reforms in the region and align its policies with its own. At the same time, however, this ambition to cooperate closely with the region is often made more complicated by the situation on the ground. This is particularly the case of cyber resilience cooperation, where even despite overlapping interests – like the fight against cybercrime or improving the overall level of cybersecurity – the EU needs to exercise enhanced due diligence in order to avoid undermining the already fragile human rights protection in some of those countries. Reconciling these two elements – the willingness to engage in closer cooperation and the need for a cautious approach to cybersecurity cooperation – remains the key challenge. Against this background, the study aims to address two questions. First, to what extent are different initiatives and policies implemented across the region compatible with the EU’s own interests and values? Second, who are the key multipliers on cybersecurity in the region that could potentially align with the EU in certain aspects and help it achieve its policy objectives? Which of these relationships are mature enough or require further work in order to turn into concrete cooperation initiatives? These two sets of questions guide the discussion in each of the chapters.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

168. Convergence, Development, and Energy-Intensive Infrastructure: Getting Africa to High-Income Status

Author:: Vijaya Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The structural changes in an economy that accompany its growth to high-income status have been predictable in Europe, the United States, and Asia, characterized by declining employment in agriculture and rising levels of urbanization driven by jobs in the modern industrial sector. As agricultural productivity rises, the share of people employed in agriculture declines, and both urbanization and employment in manufacturing increase. Food prices fall relative to wages, causing the share of income spent on food to decline to very low levels. Asian countries have followed a similar path, although at a much faster pace. Africa, however, is different. Despite a high share of the population in urban areas, most African countries have yet to see significant increases in agricultural productivity that might drive industrial growth and jobs. In most African countries, the rising share of urban population has not been matched by increases in agricultural productivity, falling food prices, or the emergence of a viable industrial sector. Available evidence shows that agricultural yields in Africa are low and food is costly, while the share of employment in agriculture remains high. For the process of structural transformation to get underway, African countries must manufacture of fertilizer, develop better methods of water control, improve transportation, and invest in cold storage. Each of these interventions requires significant amounts of energy, including energy from fossil fuels. And they are not replaceable—countries have managed structural transformation in different ways but, to date, none have leapfrogged the process.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Energy Policy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa

169. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain

Author:: Samik Adhikari, Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The youth population within Nigeria is rapidly increasing, but despite their high levels of education and skills, many are struggling to find meaningful work opportunities at home. At the same time, Europe’s working-age population is declining, resulting in employers in these countries facing large and persistent skill shortages within a range of mid-skill professions. Despite the large benefits that facilitating migration between Nigeria and Europe could bring, and despite the overtures of both European governments and the European Union, few mutually beneficial migration partnerships exist. This report, a joint production between the World Bank and the Center for Global Development (CGD), outlines how the Global Skill Partnership model could be used to meet needs on both sides. It explores the growing youth unemployment rate in Nigeria, the increasing emigration pressure, and the structures that have been set up to manage this movement. It also explores the large skill shortages persistent within Europe, its migration management relationship with Africa, and the potential positive impacts of opening new legal migration pathways. It creates a framework with which to explore potential sectors and partner countries for the implementation of the Global Skill Partnership model, providing practical steps that governments can follow. And finally, it applies this framework to three sectors and partner countries: a health care partnership between Nigeria and the UK, a construction partnership between Nigeria and Germany, and an information and communications technology (ICT) partnership with various European states.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Labor Issues, Intellectual History, Immigration Policy, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

170. Identifying Binding Constraints on Digital Payment Services in Ethiopia: An Application of a Decision Tree Framework

Author:: Getnet Alemu, Tadele Ferde, and Alejandro Fiorito
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: While several comparable countries in sub-Saharan Africa have seen a significant increase in financial inclusion, mainly driven by digital financial services, Ethiopia still performs poorly. Even digital payment and transfer services, which lower-income and less literate segments of the population could benefit from, are rarely used. Given the low development level of Ethiopia, numerous supply and demand factors could explain this disappointing outcome. We use a decision tree framework to isolate and analyze potential constraints to find which are binding—that is, which constraints limit the expansion of digital payment services in Ethiopia. Our analysis indicates that supply-side problems are pervasive, and we find that competition problems in the essential digital infrastructure market and in the financial sector are responsible for the inadequate provision of digital payment services in Ethiopia. However, the root cause of inadequate competition, and therefore of low financial inclusion through digital payment services, is institutional deficiencies. The two key institutional deficiencies are the lack of capacity of regulatory and supervisory institutions, and the unwillingness of the central government to enable and promote competition. The dominance of public enterprises, Ethio Telecom and the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, has kept the prices of digital payment services high, particularly for low-income populations, as fees charged for undertaking low-value transactions are very high and the cost of digital infrastructure (mobile phones and plans) is also substantial. Unless these institutional binding constraints are removed, digital payment services in Ethiopia, and digital financial services more generally, will hit a very short ceiling that limits their enormous potential to improve livelihoods in the country.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

171. Nigerian Confraternities To Conquer The World

Author:: Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: While the Nigerian brotherhoods have become increasingly prominent in the media given the criminal threat they are said to represent, they have not been the subject of any field research in Nigeria or Europe. This media coverage is fueling a growing confusion between the legal and police categorizations that are used to define these brotherhoods and the pan-African practices and discourses of solidarity and emancipation that they promote. The socio-historical approach developed in this study makes it possible to put into perspective the global expansion of confraternities since the 2000s. It offers another perspective on the role of these secret societies and their inclusion in political economies and different territories. In Europe, the Nigerian confraternities are first and foremost social institutions for the youth and the diasporas. They ensure the reproduction of the power of traditional and political elites abroad by capturing incomes linked to migration (remittances), and therefore play a key role in the production of a form of globalization of Nigerian society from below. They participate in the establishment of moral and social institutions from the south of Nigeria in Europe. Behind a discourse of empowerment and solidarity, the confraternities are thus a transnational network which perpetuates a conservative order, a social hierarchy and the inequalities which they help to naturalize.
Topic:: Globalization, Diaspora, Inequality, transnationalism, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

172. Preventing Violent Islamic Radicalization: Experimental Evidence on Anti-Social Behavior

Author:: Pedro C. Vicente and Inês Vilela
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Violence perpetrated by radicalized Muslims is a major problem around the world. We collaborated with the main Islamic authority in Mozambique, which sponsored two randomized interventions to prevent violence related to youth radicalization: a religious campaign against extremist views of Islam, targeting change in beliefs; and a training module on entrepreneurship and employment, aiming to increase the opportunity cost of conflict. Our measurement focuses on anti-social behavior in a Joy-of-destruction lab game. We find that only the religious treatment decreased the propensity to destroy the payoffs of others. Consistently, surveys show increased trust in the state and decreased support for extremism.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Religion, Economic Growth, Youth, Conflict, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

173. Conflict Mediation and Peacebuilding in the Sahel: The Role of Maghreb Countries in an African Framework

Author:: Virginie Baudais, Amal Bourhrous, and Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Conflict dynamics in the Sahel are complex. The region faces a multidimensional crisis that includes the proliferation of terrorist groups, criminal networks, environmental pressures, state weaknesses and severe governance problems. In addition to this internal context, the Sahel crisis has been affected by external factors, such as the fall of Muammar Gaddafi and the civil war in Libya. Its deeper causes can be found in the structural factors of fragility in the sociopolitical dynamics of internal divisions, serial uprisings and weak states. Having started as a largely Malian conflict, the crisis now affects the whole Sahel region and, despite the deployment of military and security operations, it continues to get worse. A new approach is needed. The authors of this Policy Paper identify regionally and locally driven solutions as one such way to support development and promote peace. They highlight how stronger involvement of the Maghreb countries that share borders with the crisis-affected countries to their south could be a critical factor in building the foundations of stability and starting to meet longer-term development objectives. Given their engagement with Sahel crises in the past and the multiple linkages that connect the two regions, the role of these countries—and especially Algeria and Morocco—could be pivotal. Despite challenges, African-led initiatives are perceived to be more legitimate and to have a deeper understanding of local contexts. The authors thus recommend that the African Union, with its emphasis on endeavouring to bring ‘African solutions to African problems’, provides the framework for coordinated action in the Sahel. This paper offers a fresh assessment of the situation in the Sahel in the context of relations with neighbouring Maghreb countries. The authors’ insightful analysis and recommendations will be of interest to policymakers in Africa, in Europe and elsewhere, as well as to local actors and other stakeholders involved in mediation and peacebuilding efforts in the Sahel.
Topic:: Security, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Maghreb, and Sahel

174. The European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic: An Assessment

Author:: Annelies Hickendorff and Igor Acko
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: This SIPRI Background Paper provides an overview of the European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic (EUTM RCA) and assesses its impact on the country’s conflict dynamics since it was established in 2016. The second of three country-specific papers, it is part of a larger SIPRI project analysing the effectiveness of the EU’s training missions in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Mali. All three papers will feed into a synthesis paper that will offer a comparative analysis of the missions and recommendations for the way forward. This paper analyses EUTM RCA’s main training and advisory activities, before assessing its political and operational impacts. It summarizes the main factors that account for the mission’s successes and limitations, and makes five recommendations to augment the future impact of the mission. It concludes that EUTM RCA has made an impact in terms of military capacity building and assistance to the national Ministry of Defence, but so far there has been little tangible progress in terms of structural reform of the defence sector or the transformation of the armed forces. In addition, EUTM RCA faces many obstacles that lie largely beyond its control. The main challenges of lack of national ownership and limited political engagement cannot be addressed with technical solutions alone.
Topic:: Security, Peacekeeping, European Union, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

175. Turkey’s African adventure: Taking stock of a new chapter in EU-Turkey relations

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Georgios Christos Kostaras
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Since its official adoption in 2005, Turkey’s “Africa Opening” (Afrika Açılımı) has become one of the most important elements in its foreign policy and resulted in the diversification of Turkey’s economic and political relations with sub-Saharan African states. While African-Turkish relations were broadly perceived as advanced by 2010, Ankara´s humanitarian involvement in Somalia the following year has been a catalyst for Turkey´s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. Emphasizing both the absence of a colonial past and its religious affinities, Turkey has further promoted its relations and influence across the continent. This is most evident in the Sahel, where the strategies of Ankara and Paris are at loggerheads. EU and Turkish interests in Africa are not necessarily irreconcilable; Africa, a continent whose economic and strategic significance is set to sharply rise, deserves more attention from Greece and the European Union.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

176. Greece’s Rise as a Trans-Mediterranean Power: Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean strategic shift to Europe-to-Africa and Europe-to-Middle East connectivity

Author:: Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Greece stands at the threshold of a strategic shift that could see the Hellenic Republic become Europe’s geopolitical gatekeeper of the emerging East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe commercial corridors. Whether Greece becomes a European leader in trans-Mediterranean connectivity depends on Athens’ ability to develop its own position in East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe manufacturing value chains. Greece’s advancing green energy, innovation economy offers promising avenues to engage Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in joint ventures that will transform Greece into a cutting-edge trans-Mediterranean actor. Greece’s new trans-Mediterranean profile is a strategic shift that will require the EU system to adjust its perception of Greece and incentivize closer coordination between Greece and other member states to facilitate joint venture investments in the two corridors. In the absence of such coordination, Athens will continue to deepen its relations with Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia while engaging with select EU member states. The extent to which Greece succeeds at industrial value chain integration will determine its role in the emerging trans-regional commercial architecture, and with it, Greece’s strategic standing within the European Union and the MENA region.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

177. An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Economic

Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: For many years, the economies of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa, like most of the world’s economies, have been confronted with numerous fluctuations in the price of raw materials on international markets. For these predominantly extroverted economies, that is, those dependent on export earnings, these price variations have consequences for their macroeconomic performance and the conduct of economic policy. Like most economic crises in the world in the past, the pandemic caused by the new Coronavirus that has been raging since 2020 has also brought with it many changes. Between the confinement measures taken by public authorities to curb the spread of the virus and the resulting slowdown in global economic activity, there has been an inevitable significant drop in global oil demand. The direct consequence of such a scenario is the fall in oil prices on world markets, which is very bad news for the public finances of oil-exporting countries. The main objective of this report is to analyze the effects of oil price fluctuations on the conduct of monetary policy in the CEMAC. We start from the observation that oil shocks are the source of strong inflationary pressures in these economies. It is the responsibility of monetary policy to ensure price stability. Thus, after analyzing the effects of oil price fluctuations on the world economy as well as the macroeconomic and financial implications of these fluctuations on the economies in 2020, we use a Vector Auto Regressive model to analyze the contribution of oil price shocks on the historical dynamics of macroeconomic variables in the various CEMAC countries between 2001 and 2020. Then, we use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to analyze the impact of oil price changes on monetary policy in the CEMAC.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, Global Markets, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, Cameroon, and Central Africa

178. President Biden’s Africa Policy

Author:: Rebecca Rattner and Bjorn Whitmore
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Joe Biden’s administration has committed to transforming America’s relationships across the globe. This period of reform presents the opportunity for a long-overdue reimagination of America’s policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this Strategic Update, Rebecca Rattner and Bjorn Whitmore argue a successful new relationship between America and Sub-Saharan Africa must rely on genuine partnership, support to local actors, and strong regional institutions. Their piece considers how to apply these principles in practice by examining the nuanced socio-political realities in East, West, Central, and Southern Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Africa, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

179. Essential Work: Using A Social Reproduction Lens to Investigate the Re-Organisation of Work During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Sara Stevano, Rosimina Ali, and Merle Jamieson
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: COVID-19 has shaken a foundational pillar of global capitalism: the organisation of work. Whilst workers have commonly been categorised based on skills, during the pandemic the ‘essential worker’ categorisation has taken prominence. This paper explores the concept of essential work from a global feminist social reproduction perspective. The global perspective is complemented by a zoom-in on Mozambique as a low-income country in the Global South, occupying a peripheral position in global and regional economies and with a large share of vulnerable and essential workers. We show that the meaning of essential work is more ambiguous and politicised than it may appear and, although it can be used as a basis to reclaim the value of socially reproductive work, its transformative potential hinges on the possibility to encompass the most precarious and transnational dimensions of (re)production.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Feminism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Global South

180. Rwanda’s Agricultural Transformation Revisited: Stagnating Food Production, Systematic Overestimation, and a Flawed Performance Contract System

Author:: Sebastian Heinen
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Sustained productivity growth in the agricultural sector is a key component of a country’s path out of poverty. The quantitative development of Rwanda’s agriculture in recent years has been widely regarded as a success story and as further evidence for the effectiveness of its government to bring about sustained socio-economic progress. However, simple statistical analysis of publicly available data shows that food crop production volumes and yields have actually stagnated over the last fifteen years. Moreover, agricultural output was significantly overestimated from 2008-2013 and then silently corrected downwards in Rwandan and international datasets. As a result, the country’s economic growth numbers are very likely inflated as well. After presenting substantive evidence for these claims, this paper discusses three issues arising from them. First, it argues that yield-raising effects of massive mineral fertiliser application and other ‘Green Revolution’ technologies were offset by the enormous disruption resulting from the government’s rigorously enforced agricultural reform programme. Second, it finds that massive food crop production overestimation likely proliferated due to a flawed performance-based governance system that incentivised bureaucrats and farmers to tweak the numbers instead of compelling them to achieve actual results. Even more, this inflation prevented early detection of agricultural stagnation and consequently also the required adaptation of agricultural policy. Third, the exceptional ‘brand-building’ capabilities of the Rwandan ruling elite led to the preservation of its false reputation of having achieved skyrocketing yield growth. As a silver lining, a few recently revised reform components point to the possibility of an eventually more successful agricultural transformation, whose chances might hinge on the government’s ability to allow more discretion of bureaucrats and more inclusion of local knowledge.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

181. The Challenge of Transnational Salafi-Jihadi Terrorism in Africa

Author:: Matan Daniel
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Ifriqiya, Matan Daniel presents an overview of two of the major transnational jihadi groups operating in Africa, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. He puts each group in its context, and shows how they represent new challenges for the continent and specifically in the regions where they are active. Salafi-jihadi groups (SJGs) have become a significant challenge and threat to global security and to the political stability of many countries during the past few decades. The emergence of al-Qaʿeda and the Islamic State, and the catastrophic consequences of their activity remain vivid in the memory of many. In recent years, as the resonance of al-Qaʿeda and the Islamic State's operations seems to be receding in the Middle East and Asia, Africa has become a rising sphere for the activity of SJGs. This article will elaborate on the issue of Salafi-jihadi activity in Africa, its transnational classification, and on two of the groups that represent it today, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Salafism, Transnational Actors, Jihad, Boko Haram, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, and Somalia

182. The Death of Chad’s Warrior President: What it Means for the Region and the World

Author:: Eline Rosenhart
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Ifriqiya, Eline Rosenhart explains how the recent killing of Chad's long-term president, Idriss Déby Itno, puts the country in a precarious situation. She analyzes the historical background of his regime, and notes that this could be an opportunity for Chadians to make the political system more inclusive.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Africa and Chad

183. For Mozambique’s government, is radical Islam exclusively a security issue?

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist analyzes the response of the government of Mozambique to the growing security threat of Islamist violence in the north of the country. To address this problem, she explains the background of the issue and calls for a broad approach that would deal with social and ethnic marginalization, as well.
Topic:: Security, Government, Islam, Violence, and Marginalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

184. The Role of Global Climate Change in Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Askar Mukashov and Christian Henning
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: With increasing evidence that rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) opt for deagrarianization as an adaptation strategy to climate change, it is becoming important to understand the role of Global Climate Change (GCC) in ongoing structural transformation processes in these countries. We use Senegal as a case study country and analyze how various GCC scenarios affect the country's economic sectors, households' welfare, and structural transformation patterns. Our simulation results suggest that GCC can increase the country's deagrarianization pace, with industrial and service sectors in the capital Dakar being the most important destinations of the former agricultural labor force. Although unplanned urbanization smoothes the overall negative impact of GCC and decreases spatial income disparities, uncontrolled deagrarianization is also associated with negative externalities. Previous growth-focused studies suggest that services partaking in Senegal’s deagrarianization can hamper its long-term growth prospects, and our results suggest that productivity increase of services can redirect part of the former agricultural labor force towards industrial sectors.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, Rural, and Housing
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

185. One Year After: Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Increased Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Author:: Matthias Basedau and Mora Deitch
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: In spring 2020, observers and practitioners warned that COVID-19 would increase violence in sub-Saharan Africa by creating an economic shock that would lead to distributional conflicts and government repression. Compared to before the pandemic, violence did increase in 2020, rising by 40 and 60 per cent in terms of fatalities and events, respectively. Controlling for important confounders, COVID-19 proves significant to the increase in violence in many models; however, a robust effect can be found only for “COVID-19 unrest,” which forms a fraction of the violence and stems from the stringency of government reactions rather than the pandemic itself. Pre-pandemic fragility accounts best for the region’s rise in violence. Expert assessments confirm these findings but also yield evidence warning against prematurely announcing an all-clear. The fallout of the pandemic on conflict is likely to have a longer period of incubation, and there are initial indications that conditions will worsen.
Topic:: Violence, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

186. Rumble in the DR Congo: President Tshisekedi is Taking Control

Author:: Hans Hoebeke
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Two years after the peaceful transition that ended the presidency of Joseph Kabila, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is experiencing another decisive turn. After a long-drawn-out fight, President Felix Tshisekedi has skilfully turned the tables on his predecessor, whose position had seemed impregnable. In a series of reversals, former President Kabila’s political platform, the Common Front for the Congo (FCC) lost control over the judiciary, the two chambers of parliament and the government. On 15 February 2021, President Tshisekedi appointed his prime minister, Sama Lukonde Kyenge, who will head a government of the new Union Sacrée de la Nation (USN) coalition. These are undoubtedly major steps forward. But while breaking the Kabila-system’s hold on the Congolese state is a necessary condition for change, it is only the beginning. President Tshisekedi, the incoming government and other forces for change are now in a unique position to renew governance practices and govern in the interest of the Congolese people. This Egmont Paper analyses the recent polit- ical developments in the DRC and identifies the main priorities and challenges facing President Tshisekedi and the country.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

187. Engagement of External Powers in Africa: Takeaways for India

Author:: Rajiv Bhatia
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: As multiple foreign powers compete in Africa, there is a need to understand the geopolitical landscape, and analyse the various policies, strategies and motivations of each country. Where lies India in this great strategic game? India has a unique relationship with the continent, with respect for equality, mutual benefit, and need-based assistance. By deepening India-Africa cooperation, bolstering economic relations and leveraging new digital, space and medical technologies, the relationship between India and the African nations can be better cemented, despite the global competition at play.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Engagement, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, and India

188. Role of Native Administration in Integrated Natural Resource Management and Conflict Resolution in Central Darfur State, Sudan

Author:: Musa Adam Ismail, Siddig A. Mohamed, Mohamed A. Teabin, Elsadig A. Zakaria, Adam A. Bahar, Elamin M. Osman, Aziza A. Ali, Maria A. Osman, and Malik A. Sabei
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Native Administration (NA) in Sudan is still commonly known by the term ‘traditional leadership,’ the name given to the formal system in the early 1930s during the British colonial period (1916-1956). Among the powers and responsibilities of the NA system were the management and conservation of the environment and natural resources, and resolution of conflict over land and natural resources. Researchers from the University of Zalingei in Central Darfur, Sudan, conducted this study to improve the understanding of the role played by the NA and local traditions in integrated natural resource management in Central Darfur over the last twenty years, and to understand the conflicts and disputes associated with land access. The study focused on communities targeted by the Taadoud project that employ a range of different livelihood strategies, e.g., farming and herding. Data were collected from 12 villages in Zalingei and Wadi Salih localities in Central Darfur State. These villages were selected to represent different livelihood groups (farmers and pastoralists). The study was conducted in collaboration with the Taadoud II Project’s inter-university partnership between the Feinstein International Center at Tufts University; the University of Al Fashir in North Darfur, Sudan; and the University of Zalingei in Central Darfur, Sudan.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Local, and Traditional Leaders
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

189. The Role of Community-Based Natural Resource Management Mechanisms in Sustainable Livelihoods in North Darfur

Author:: Abubakr Mohamed JUma Siam, Ibrahim Ali Elnour, Somia Ibrahim Ambaddi, and Leila Omer Adam
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Researchers from the University of Al Fashir in North Darfur, Sudan conducted this study to identify the ways in which access to and use of natural resources in North Darfur is effectively regulated through community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) mechanisms and what impact these mechanisms have on people’s livelihoods. The study revealed that there are CBNRM committees in the majority of the studied communities. Their crucial strength is the nomination of committee members by the community themselves. Thus, their legitimacy comes from the community which provides the power to work and succeed in various fields of natural resource access and livelihood systems. The study discusses key findings related to the role that CBNRM committees play (and do not play) in regulating livelihoods and ecosystems. The data were collected from three localities: El Fashir, Daresalam and Kalemindo. Seventeen villages/communities/government officials where the Taadoud II program operates were selected for the study. The study was conducted in collaboration with the Taadoud II Project’s inter-university partnership between the Feinstein International Center at Tufts University; the University of Al Fashir in North Darfur, Sudan; and the University of Zalingei in Central Darfur, Sudan.
Topic:: Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, Community, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

190. Fiscal Policy Letter No5: Improving Financial Inclusion To Broaden The Tax Base In Cameroon

Author:: Jean-Cedric Kouam and L.B. Bongbinsin
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: For several months, Cameroon has been facing the ravages of the pandemic caused by the coronavirus. To stop the spread of the virus, the Cameroonian authorities in April 2020 announced a series of fiscal easing measures to help companies and households in difficulty. Estimated at more than 114 billion CFA francs according to the Director-General of Taxation, the decisions taken have profoundly impacted public finances. Indeed, well before the pandemic, the country was already facing a high risk of external debt overhang (IMF, 2018) and immense security challenges in the North and the Anglophone regions. Despite this constraining socioeconomic and political context, the state must find the necessary and sufficient resources to ensure its proper functioning and territorial integrity. This fiscal policy letter proposes through analyzes a way for the government of Cameroon to increase its tax revenues in the coming years without penalizing growth: improving financial inclusion. The goal is to eliminate all constraints that exclude the most disadvantaged from full participation in the financial sector. The letter is structured around six key points. First, we provide an overview of Cameroon’s financial inclusion situation. Second, we analyze the factors that explain economic agents’ access to financial services, the transmission mechanisms between the financial and formal sectors, and the barriers to financial inclusion in Cameroon. Our results show that a deepening of the financial system would likely positively affect tax mobilization in Cameroon. Estimates show that a 10% increase in financial assets would lead to a 1.87% increase in tax revenue, equivalent to CFAF 49.70 billion – based on the level of tax revenue projected in the 2021 budget law. Similarly, a 10% increase in the number of secure servers – better access to the internet – would lead to a 1.1% increase in tax revenue, equivalent to CFAF 30.62 billion. This improvement in access to financial services for all economic agents – households, businesses – requires the public authorities to make the current regulations more flexible and increase the banking network’s density. This includes the development of payment systems, the construction of quality infrastructures, the definition of mechanisms to limit massive illicit capital flight, and the multiplication of consumer/investor protection guarantees.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Governance, Finance, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

191. Information Asymmetry: A Major Obstacle to Credit Provision In Cameroon

Author:: Jean-Cedric Kouam and Maurice Tchegho
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: According to the report published by the World Bank, which ranks the world’s economies Doing Business (2020) according to the ease of doing business, Cameroon ranked 167th out of 190 economies, a loss of one place compared to 2019. However, the country gained 0.1 point by recording a score of 46.1 points out of the 100 at stake. According to the World Bank, this slight increase is the result of the improvement of one of the ten indicators taken into account in the calculation of the score, that relating to access to credit. Indeed, with the help of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), Cameroon has established a framework for the granting of licenses and the operation of credit bureaus (1) which has enabled it to rank 80th in terms of obtaining credit, with a score of 60 out of 100 for obtaining credit and 6 for the depth of information on credit. Conversely, the score for credit bureaus is zero (World Bank, 2020). Despite this notable progress, particularly with regard to access to credit information, information asymmetry remains a serious problem in the relationship between the credit applicant and the credit provider in Cameroon. Defined as the lack of communication of accurate and reliable information from companies, this translates into the fact that one of the contracting parties holds information that it decides, voluntarily or not, to transmit to the other party. This constitutes an obstacle to project financing. From this situation, a major concern arises: What are the causes and consequences of informational opacity in the credit granting process in Cameroon?
Topic:: Communications, Finance, Business, and Credit
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

192. A Look at the Legal Framework and Constraints of Credit Granting In Cameroon

Author:: Steve Tametong and Martial Nteme
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The realisation of an investment depends, in certain cases, on the use of credit. The granting of credit requires a prior credit operation. According to section 3 of Law No. 2019/021 of 24 December 2019 to lay down certain rules relating to credit activity in the banking and microfinance sectors in Cameroon, a credit operation means “the act by which a reporting institution, acting for consideration, advances or promises to advance funds to a natural or legal person, or makes a commitment by signature in the interest of the latter”. In reality, the credit applicant is faced with challenges that stem partly from his or her ignorance of the legal framework for granting credit in Cameroon. It is therefore necessary for each credit applicant to master the legal environment that governs the granting of credit. This is the first articulation of this analysis (I). The second section examines the conditions and constraints of credit granting (II). The third section sets out recommendations for improving the framework for granting credit in Cameroon (III).
Topic:: Infrastructure, Finance, Investment, and Credit
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

193. Is Somaliland the Symbol of Democracy in the Horn of Africa?

Author:: Francis Tazoacha
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Democratic principles and practices are inherent in a people, especially in people who are patriotic and have an urge for prosperity and posterity. It is from this spectrum that participatory democratic practices, governance, and human rights strive in such societies for sustainable development. These democratic principles are primarily concerned with ensuring that citizens are afforded an opportunity to participate or otherwise be involved in decision-making on matters that affect their lives. This political participation is indispensable for the realization of a just and transparent society. It is probably from this premise that the Somalilanders’ democracy has evolved.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Africa and Somaliland

194. The National FDI Observatories, a Bulwark Against the Imbalance Effects of Chinese FDI In Africa?

Author:: Joel Moudio and Steve Tametong
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Sino-African relations are structured around three axes: trade, Chinese financing in Africa and foreign direct investment (FDI). The latter is the key element in the multinationalisation of companies. Between 2003 and 2018, Chinese FDI in Africa dropped from USD 75 million to USD 2.7 billion1 ; this is in contrast to the period 2004-2008 when Africa attracted about 10% of Chinese direct investment (Sanfilippo, 2010), with a peak in 2008 of about USD 5.5 billion “due to the purchase of 20% of the shares of the Standard Bank of South Africa by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)”.2. These include: cross-border mergers and acquisitions, intra-group loans and borrowing, and the creation of subsidiaries abroad. While Chinese FDI in Africa is growing exponentially and is a development boon for African countries (1), it is also partly a “danger” for African economies. The case of Cameroon will illustrate this (2). In this context, the establishment of a National FDI Observatory (NFOID) under the joint action of civil society becomes a necessity in order to compensate for the State’s inadequacies in terms of monitoring and surveillance of the perverse effects of FDI (3).
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Hegemony, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

195. Is Cameroon a Police State? All About the Use of Administrative Custody

Author:: Steve Tametong
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The wind of liberal democracy will not have swept away all the vestiges of the police state long maintained in Cameroon under the cover of Ordinance No. 62/OF/18 of March 12, 1962 on the repression of subversion. Indeed, this legislation had made impossible any democratic political life and had emptied of its substance the enjoyment and exercise of fundamental rights and freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution. Today, administrative custody seems to be one of the vestiges that has survived the passage of time. A unilateral prerogative of arbitrary deprivation of freedoms formerly held by the administrative authorities, administrative custody was formally instituted by law n°90/054 of 19 December 1990 on the maintenance of public order. In application of this law, and under the pretext – justified or false – of maintaining public order, the administrative authorities can request persons and property in the legal forms, request the forces of order, control the movement of goods and persons, but above all “take measures of police custody for a period of 15 days, renewable, within the framework of the fight against organized crime. This deprivation of liberty ordered by the administrative authorities is commonly referred to as “administrative custody”, which distinguishes it from judicial custody ordered in the context of criminal proceedings. At a time when most democratic systems are implementing a legal and institutional framework favorable to the rule of law and the development of fundamental rights and freedoms, it is not without interest to question the appropriateness of maintaining administrative custody in Cameroonian positive law, especially in normal times. Before mobilizing the arguments in favor of abolishing it (I), it is appropriate to first dwell on the difficulties it poses in the Cameroonian context (II).
Topic:: Democracy, Liberalism, Police State, Illiberal Democracy, and Administration
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

196. The Financial Decentralization Of Local Governments Tested By The Principle Of Cash Flow In Cameroon

Author:: Theophile Nguimfack Voufo and Steve Tametong
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: In the face of the multiple socio-political crises that Cameroon is experiencing, the form of the state is now being debated, against the backdrop of the issue of governance. Seen in its political, administrative or financial dimensions, state governance has failed miserably in terms of socio-economic development issues. To remedy this, the public authorities recognize the need to complete the decentralization process. Is this commitment, which is regularly reinforced by the media, a way out of the crisis? From a legal point of view, the evolution of the decentralization process is marked by two fundamental requirements: the transfer of powers on the one hand, and the subsequent transfer of resources to exercise these powers on the other. Since 2010, the central executive has been committed to the transfer of powers to local authorities. However, the principles of complementarity, subsidiarity and even concomitance mark the return of the state, whereas decentralization implies a priority of action for the decentralized communities. In this respect, the transfer of powers is accompanied by the transfer of resources, in particular local taxation and allocations from the State budget. Local taxation, grants and own resources acquired by decentralized authorities constitute the basis of financial decentralization. It requires that the resources transferred to local governments be freely managed. This refers to the ability to mobilize these resources without being hindered by state bodies. This freedom remains an illusion in the presence of the principle of the unity of the treasury. This principle links the treasury of decentralized communities to that of the State, which can have several implications for the financial freedom of action of these communities. Given the current challenges of decentralization in Cameroon, the question arises as to whether the unity of the treasury is compatible with the financial decentralization of decentralized local authorities. Questioning the relevance of this principle allows us to verify whether this classic rule is not already obsolete in Cameroon. Analysis shows that the principle of the cash unit is incompatible with financial decentralization (I) and should be reconsidered (II).
Topic:: Government, Finance, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

197. E-Democracy In Africa: Issues, Challenges and Perspectives

Author:: Youmssi Eya Yvan Lionnel
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The term democracy, which comes from the combination of demos, meaning “people“, and krátos, meaning “power“, refers to a mode of governance in which the people hold power and participate in its exercise. For this reason, the definition popularised by Abraham LINCOLN is that of “government of the people by the people and for the people”. In contact with the New Information and Communication Technologies (NICT), classical democracy is gradually turning into “e-democracy“, which GARSON defines as being: “the use of ICT by governments to improve the efficiency, equity, and quality of democratic participation”. (Garson, G. David. (2006) Public Information Technology and E-Governance: Managing the Virtual State. Sudbury, MA: Jones & Bartlett.) E-democracy is therefore involved in all aspects of democracy, including the electoral process (e-voting), which is seen as the most important in ensuring fair elections. For the OSCE, fair elections imply that “the electoral process is conducted in a transparent and accountable manner and that the electorate is able to make a real and informed choice, – these conditions ensuring voter confidence in the electoral process”. OSCE, Election Observation Handbook, fifth edition, ISBN 83-60190-02-X, (2005) This is the challenge of e-democracy in Africa, which has been marked for decades by a crisis between political actors in the electoral process, which generates more or less devastating post-electoral conflicts. Therefore, it is possible to ask the question whether e-democracy can address the limitations of traditional democracy in Africa. To this question, it can be said that e-democracy provides solutions to the limits of democratic practice in Africa. However, shortcomings in its application must be addressed if it is to be a real alternative to the traditional practice of democracy in Africa. Therefore, it seemed appropriate to present e-democracy as a solution to the limitations of the traditional practice of democracy in Africa (I) provided that the limitations in its application are corrected (II) so that it constitutes a real political alternative.
Topic:: Civil Society, Politics, Democracy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Africa

198. Youth and National Integration in Cameroon: An Analysis Based on Associative Movements

Author:: Fonkeing Fotabong
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Humanity today faces several challenges that need to be addressed in terms of health, terrorism, illegal migration, youth employment and especially the problem of youth education. Considered the “backbone of the nation” in many countries around the world, youth represent hope for future generations and stability for today’s society. While it is true that youth are perceived by many observers as “good-for-nothing” or “passive in society”, the African continent as we see it today faces major challenges that require strong actors capable of transforming the potential of youth into development opportunities. Given the current concerns in African communities, an analysis of this segment of the continent’s population, which has been growing exponentially in recent decades, is worthwhile. In an international context where transnationalism is the order of the day, associative movements are growing in size in States and are becoming important players in the construction of national integration. This analytical framework on the theme of youth helps to define the concepts of youth and associative movements, so that the reader can understand the extent to which young people in a state can contribute, via associations and groups, to making national integration a national priority or, to a certain extent, contribute to its materialisation. Thus, before starting the analysis of this theme, it is necessary to define the key concepts of this work, to make a panoramic presentation of the associative movements in Cameroon starting from the law, while drawing the parallel between the youth and the construction of a national integration with the aim of constituting and framing dynamics likely to capitalise on the youth as the Ariadne’s thread of a national integration to be preserved not only from insurrectionary movements, tribalism, but also and especially against the singers of secessionism.
Topic:: Youth Culture, Youth, Youth Movement, Integration, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

199. Youth Participation In the Local Development Plan In Yaoundé 4: Issues and Roles

Author:: Sonwa Momo Berenice Kylian
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Africa is a continent with a predominantly young population. The media and development experts around the world speak of it as a great wealth. Cameroon is one of those countries whose youth is the “driving force”. Lawn°2004/017of 22 July 2004 on the orientation of decentralisation in Cameroon, taken up by Law n°2019/024 of 24 December 2019 on the General Code of Decentralised Territorial Authorities, is quite explicit on the contribution of the population, and in particular young people, to their local development. For the voice of these young people to have a large-scale impact, coordination is needed. In this respect, youth organisations (associations) are likely to provide relevant solutions. This is the case of PIJEDECA (Independent Youth Platform for Democracy and Active Citizenship), which has been working for nearly five (5) years in mobilising youth around social, economic, democracy, citizenship and human rights issues. The ADEV (Association of Development Actors), for its part, “has been working for more than three years with women and young people in Cameroon society. “ From the outset, it is necessary to indicate what an association is in order to identify its role and its challenges in local development. Article 2 of Law No. 90/053 of 19 December 1990 on the freedom of association in the Republic of Cameroon provides that “association is the agreement by which persons pool their knowledge or activities for a purpose other than sharing profits”. This shows that the association has a collective function and does not aim at individual interest. It is in this pooling of skills that youth associations can effectively contribute to the development of their Decentralized Territorial Authorities (CTD). For the Confederation of Youth Organisations (COJ), “”a voluntary association of natural or legal persons that contributes to the development by young people of their personal skills in order to help them become active, responsible and critical citizens within society”. ». These organisations must be supported by young people who are committed to the development of a community, a territory, without neglecting the great contribution of volunteering. Several studies have been carried out on the contribution of young people to the development of their communities both in Cameroon and abroad. This is why it is important to specify the roles and issues of these youth associations in the commune of Yaoundé 4. In view of the above, what could be the roles and stakes of youth organisations in the development of Yaoundé 4? To answer this question is certainly to seek to establish a direct link between the civic commitment of these youth associations and their contribution to the development of Yaoundé 4.
Topic:: Development, Youth, Local, Participation, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

200. Evaluation of Mechanisms to Combat Gender-Based Violence In the Far North Region of Cameroon

Author:: Ernestine Joy Nyangono
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: According to the Committee of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) and in accordance with the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 48/104, “gender-based violence (GBV)” is violence that is perpetrated against a woman or a man simply because she is a woman or because he is a man. This term is mainly used to highlight the systemic inequality between men and women, which exists in all societies in the world and is a founding and even unifying characteristic of most forms of violence committed against women and girls. Two important surveys that integrate GBV have been conducted in Cameroon. These are the 2011 and 2014 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (DHS-MICS 2011 and DHS-MICS 5 in 2014). The DHS-MICS 5 of 2014 informs us that among women aged 15 to 49, one woman out of ten (11%) was married before the age of 15. Among women aged 20-29, about one in eight (13%) married before the age of 15. Three out of eight women (36%) were married before the age of 18. 31% of women report having been physically abused, 13% “often” and 24% “sometimes”. GBV can be seen in all regions of Cameroon, with a preponderance in the northern regions. In fact, for all forms of violence against women and girls, statistics show that 60% of women in the Far North region, 53% in the North and 43% in the Adamawa region are victims of GBV. In light of the current challenges related to GBV, it is necessary to examine the effectiveness of existing response mechanisms and to identify measures to be taken in order to revitalize them. Despite the extent and persistence of the phenomenon, there are very few studies on the situation of GBV in the Far North. The little information that does exist indicates that due to the security crisis in this part of the country and socio-cultural constraints, gender-based violence has continued to increase. In order to organise the response, the State of Cameroon, supported by its development partners, has initiated numerous large-scale actions aimed at strengthening the structures and mechanisms for combating and caring for women and young girls who are victims of such violence. However, the conflict linked to the incursion of the Boko Haram sect in the Far North and the rise of organised crime in the North and Adamawa regions have seriously affected all community protection mechanisms, thus reducing their response capacity. In light of the current challenges related to GBV, this study allows us to assess the strengths and weaknesses of existing mechanisms and to identify measures to be taken in order to revitalize them. The analysis of GBV response mechanisms revealed several gaps, especially in terms of human and financial resources. Indeed, several structures do not have the human resources needed to act effectively and suffer from a lack of funding for their functioning and activities. Despite the weak capacities of the actors in the GBV response chain, they have achieved satisfactory results, which not only contribute to the reduction of GBV, but also and especially to a better understanding of the phenomenon. To this end, recommendations were made to strengthen the global strategy at both the regional and national levels.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS