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1001. The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa's Textile Industries

Author:
Tang Xiaoyang
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian—particularly Chinese—investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities. Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian-particularly Chinese-investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

1002. Self-Selection into Credit Markets: Evidence from Agriculture in Mali

Author:
Dean Karlan, Bram Thuysbaert, Christopher Udry, and Lori Beaman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We partnered with a micro-lender in Mali to randomize credit offers at the village level. Then, in no-loan control villages, we gave cash grants to randomly selected households. These grants led to higher agricultural investments and profits, thus showing that liquidity constraints bind with respect to agricultural investment. In loan-villages, we gave grants to a random subset of farmers who (endogenously) did not borrow. These farmers have lower – in fact zero – marginal returns to the grants. Thus we find important heterogeneity in returns to investment and strong evidence that farmers with higher marginal returns to investment self-select into lending programs.
Topic:
Agriculture and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

1003. Pathways to Security Council Reform

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nora Gordon
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In this paper, New York University's Center on International Cooperation (CIC) seeks to explore potential pathways to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform. We begin with an overview of the current context, which has been characterized by increasing international pressure for Security Council reform. The Council's abysmal performance in the Syrian crisis has fueled the mounting pressure for reform, which includes the French proposal to limit use of the veto and Saudi Arabia's rejection of a non-permanent seat. We then offer a brief history and analysis of previous reform attempts; an explanation of global perspectives on the issue of UNSC reform; background on the Intergovernmental Negotiations (IGN) on UNSC reform in New York; and an analysis of discussions on reform in and around the African Union.
Topic:
Security, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, New York, and Saudi Arabia

1004. Limits of Control — Challenges to Spatiotemporal Analysis of Sub-State War

Author:
Christian Ickler
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
Territorial control by violent (non-)state actors (VNSA) in sub-state war features prominently in many fundamental concepts in conflict studies. Though there have been attempts to measure this phenomenon or at least delimit it from a spatiotemporal perspective, these have so far been based either primarily on qualitative expert assessments or rely on dyadic event data to determine contested areas. In this methodological research paper, I present three approaches that can be used to estimate actor presence on basis of spatiotemporal approximation. In doing so, I focus on challenges and obstacles that can be encountered when measuring territorial control via the proxy of territorial contestation. Spatiotemporally disaggregated violent incidence data is used to analyze a small subsample of countries in sub- Saharan Africa in order to determine various ways of visualizing territorial contest. Further points of discussion include the impact of data aggregation, the availability of context data and analytical methods used for these evaluations.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Africa

1005. Governance Transfer by the Southern African Development Community (SADC). A B2 Case Study Report

Author:
Anna van der Vleuten
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
As early as 1992, the Treaty of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) already included a commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as governance standards in its member states, but it was in 2001 that SADC significantly broadened its efforts at governance transfer. SADC focuses in particular on standards related to gender, (socioeconomic) human rights, and (electoral) democracy, which are promoted and protected through various instruments including military interventions and sanctions in the framework of security cooperation. While the rule of law and good governance have also gained a more prominent place on the agenda since 2001, standards and instruments are less developed. Overall, there is a significant gap between the prescription of standards and policies on the one hand and the implementation of measures on the other. The suspension of the SADC Tribunal in 2010 following its rulings on human rights issues clearly shows the limits of SADC as an active promoter vis-à-vis its member states.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

1006. The Heterogeneity of FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Do the Horizontal Productivity Effects of Emerging Investors Differ from Those of Traditional Players?

Author:
Birte Pfeiffer, Holger Görg, and Lucia Perez-Villar
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
It is generally accepted by policymakers that outward foreign direct investment (FDI) can contribute to economic development in host countries via knowledge spillovers to the domestic economy. Given that multinational corporations (MNCs) possess technological or managerial advantages, they can generate positive externalities through the diffusion of knowledge to domestic firms. This knowledge transfer can occur horizontally, if firms in the same sector benefit from the presence of multinationals, or vertically, if upstream or downstream domestic sectors gain from the presence of foreign investors. Yet, whereas the FDI literature has reached a certain level of agreement that vertical relationships with local suppliers generate positive productivity spillovers, the evidence on horizontal spillovers is still mixed and inconclusive, and estimates differ in terms of statistical significance and magnitude (Havranek and Irsova 2013).1 These inconsistencies derive largely from differences in the measurement of foreign presence and the type of data used – cross‐sectional versus panel – across studies (Görg and Strobl 2001). Further, there are determining factors at the firm and country level that enhance the realization of spillovers and need to be taken into account. Görg and Greenaway (2004) show that studies accounting for the heterogeneity of domestic firms, and especially their absorptive capacity, tend to report positive results.
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1007. Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: Assessing the Threat, Preparing the Response

Author:
Fiona Blyth and Mireille Affa'a Mindzie
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The International Peace Institute convened a roundtable discussion on "Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: Assessing the Threats, Preparing the Response" on June 6, 2013, in New York. The meeting aimed to help develop a better understanding of the peace and security challenges facing the Gulf of Guinea by examining the multifaceted threats to the stability of the region; considering national, regional, and international responses to these threats; and providing practical policy recommendations with a view to strengthening regional and international responses.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Poverty, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

1008. Mali :réformer ou rechuter

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Un an après l'intervention française, l'intégrité territoriale et l'ordre constitutionnel ont été rétablis au Mali. Mais la persistance des tensions intercommunautaires et de violences localisées témoigne d'une stabilisation encore précaire du Nord, alors que les forces françaises et onusiennes peinent à consolider leurs progrès en matière de sécurité. Les attentes à l'égard du président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta sont immenses. Il doit à la fois élaborer un compromis sur le devenir du Nord et engager la réforme d'un Etat affaibli par la crise. Son gouvernement doit aller au-delà des déclarations d'intention et passer à l'action. Pour consolider la situation à court terme, il est tenté de renouer avec un système clientéliste qui a conduit les précédents régimes dans l'impasse. Le président ne peut certes pas tout réformer brusquement mais l'urgence de la stabilisation ne doit ni faire manquer l'occasion d'entamer une réforme profonde de la gouvernance ni occulter la nécessité d'un dialogue véritablement inclusif sur l'avenir du pays.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

1009. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

1010. Regionalism and Economic Integration in Africa: A Conceptual and Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Daniel Sakyi and Eric Evans Osei Opoku
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
A well-established strand of the literature on regionalism and economic integration has made clear that economic, geopolitical, and socio-cultural relationships across the globe, for which Africa is no exception, have been changing rapidly in the last few decades. African leaders have been embracing these concepts as vital elements of their development agenda and have engaged their countries in a number of integration arrangements. This study has investigated regionalism and economic integration in Africa from a conceptual and theoretical perspective. The study identified that (i) the rationalist’s theory of neorealism and neoliberalism, (ii) the social constructivism theory, and (iii) several theories of economic integration are very relevant in explaining the formation of regional and economic blocs in Africa. Theories of economic integration that focus on trade, economic interdependency, monetary, fiscal, and political policy coordination seem to be the main forces driving regionalism and economic integration on the continent. The study revealed transportation and mobility of factors of production, limited intra-African trade, multi-memberships, macroeconomic divergence, and conflicts as key factors hindering the success of regionalism and economic integration in Africa. Although regionalism and economic integration on the continent is plagued with these challenges, there are opportunities and possibilities in the power and energy sectors, the manufacturing sector, and in private-public partnerships that the continent can explore to accelerate Africa’s speed of regional and economic integration, crucial for economic growth and development.
Topic:
Development, Economy, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Africa

1011. Regionalism, Food Security and Economic Development

Author:
P. Mkandawire, Hanson Nyantakyi-Frimpong, Frederick Armah, and G. Arku
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
It is remarkable that Africa, with enormous resource endowments and with more than 70 percent of the population engaged in agriculture, cannot feed itself. This background paper offers a critical assessment of the potential of regional trade and integration in addressing the enduring challenge of food insecurity in Africa. Drawing on the literature, the paper argues that regionalism offers enormous opportunities and synergies for enhancing economic growth, food supply, and stability of food prices that cannot be easily addressed by individual countries when they operate in isolation from each other. To demonstrate the potential of regional integration for achieving food security in Africa, this paper starts by providing a conceptual framework that outlines the dimensions that link regional cooperation and food security. An overview of the key policy initiatives that are currently underway at enhancing integration at the continental level and in various regional blocs follows this introduction. The paper then progresses to a review of the extent of economic integration among African countries, with particular focus on the agriculture and food trade. It then presents a discussion on potential areas of integration followed by an examination of capacity issues that need policy attention in order to improve the potential of continental and regional integration in improving national and household food security among African countries.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Regional Integration, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa

1012. Integrated Results Based Management in Botswana: Institutions, Documentation and Progress to Date

Author:
Gape Kaboyakgosi and Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
National and international pressure on governments to provide tangible and demonstrable results for public action has become a major preoccupation of many governments and international donors (Kettl, 1997; Norman, 2002; Moynihan, 2006; Mayne, 2007). The Integrated Results Based Management (IRBM) system has been found to be a very powerful instrument for achieving this aim (World Bank, 2001; Koshy and Thomas, 2007; OECD, 2009). This paper analyses Botswana’s efforts at implementing the IRBM system. IRBM is a way of reforming public sectors through helping governments focus on proper, well-timed achievement of relevant goals and objectives. Such reform is carried out through the utilisation of strategic planning, systematic implementation and resource usage, performance monitoring, measurement and reporting as well as systematic use of performance information to improve policy decision making and programme performance at all levels (Koshy and Thomas, 2007). IRBM is, therefore, a way of improving implementation by linking budgetary and human resources systems, and producing timely quality information that is linked through entire government organs.
Topic:
Governance, Institutions, Management, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1013. The Impact of Trading with China on Botswana’s Economy

Author:
Kedibonye Sekakela
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of trading with China on Botswana’s domestic and third markets. The paper also assesses the structure and magnitude of Botswana-China bilateral trade. Botswana’s trade balance with China has been widening over the past decade, with Botswana mainly exporting primary products and importing intermediate and capital goods, which are mainly used as inputs in the development of infrastructure in the country. The increased import penetration from China is associated with Botswana’s reduced total manufacturing output. China’s Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) exports gained market share from Botswana’s TCF exports in the third markets, that is South Africa. There is a need to consider ways of enhancing Botswana’s export competitiveness and there are also lessons to be learnt from China in relation to enhancing productivity in the TCF and other exporting industries.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Botswana

1014. Towards a Diversified Economy: A Preliminary Assessment of the Potential, Prospects and Challenges for Electricity Exports from Botswana

Author:
Margaret Sengwaketse
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The paper assesses the prospects and challenges of coal-fired power exports in Botswana. Specifically, the study analyses how supply factors, that is, resource availability; environmental concerns; infrastructure and technology as well as demand factors are likely to affect the development of thermal power exports in Botswana. The study concludes that coal resources are sufficient to support exports of thermal power and that technology on coal-fired power plants is available, reliable and mature. However, environmental concerns associated with coal-fired power generation; the high costs of construction and maintenance of power plants; regional demand factors, including the increasing competition from renewable sources of energy are major factors in the feasibility of the development of coal-fired electricity exports in Botswana.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Diversification, Exports, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1015. Public Transfers and Subsistence Producer Disincentives in Botswana

Author:
Tebogo Seleka
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper investigates the disincentive effects of public transfers on subsistence producers in Botswana. Comparative statics analyses indicate that public transfers would not affect farm production when profit and utility maximization decisions are recursive, with the profit maximization decision made first. However, when such decisions are interdependent, public transfers would lead to a reduction in farm output. Empirical results reveal that social pensions have impacted positively on cultivated area, but have had no impact on cereal yields and output. However, government food rations have impacted adversely on cultivated area, yields and output; they are a disincentive to crop production because they are relatively more sizable, consistent and certain. This, it is argued, is because food packages are directly substitutable for subsistence crop production. Therefore, public policy in Botswana should consider moving away from food to cash transfers to minimize such disincentive effects.
Topic:
Agriculture, Labor Issues, Food, Welfare, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Botswana and Africa

1016. Health, Social Policy, and Inclusive Growth in MENA

Author:
Randa Alami
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper takes stock of the current status of health sectors in MENA. From the narrow perspective of national aggregate indicators, as with most middle income countries, the region has seen significant achievements. Yet, health sectors face systemic challenges, and suffer from significant and persistent inequities in health outcomes, access, delivery, and distribution of health services. Out of pocket spending levels are amongst the highest in the world, and are driven by: privatisation, poor social protection and insurance coverage, and the inability to respond to the epidemiological transition. Consequently, the financial burden of healthcare forces significant swathes of the population into poverty, or to forgo healthcare altogether. Sectoral policies have been piecemeal and short‐termist, with a clear neglect of public health sectors. These deficiencies are more evident if MENA is benchmarked against many of their peers, or against the international consensus of Universal Health Care (UHC). To achieve inclusive growth, MENA must reverse the disinvestment in public health, and the central importance of health and health equity to development must be reinstated. By the same token, MENA countries must follow UHC centred strategies, which have a good track record in tackling similar challenges in other middle income countries. While part of the difficulties may lie in financing, the lack of political commitment and weak institutional capabilities have also been serious obstacles. Sectoral reforms must target these failures, and governments need to play a more central role in covering the poor and regulating the sector.
Topic:
Health, Privatization, Inequality, Welfare, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

1017. Nigeria-Poland Bilateral Trade: Identifying New Trade Opportunities

Author:
Idris Ademuyiwa and Chukwuka Onyekwena
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the bilateral trade relationship between Nigeria andPoland for the period 1995 to 2012. It uses the Decision Support Model (DSM)and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) to identifymarket for Nigerian exports in Poland.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economic Growth, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Eastern Europe, Poland, and Nigeria

1018. Explaining Sectoral and Spatial Variations in Growth Pro-poorness in Nigeria

Author:
Eberechukwu Uneze and Adedeji Adeniran
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the sectoral and spatial variations in growth pro-poorness in Nigeria, using the Shapley decomposition, the Ravallion-Huppi decomposition and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The results show that spatial and sectoral variations in pro-poor growth are a result of inequality and shift in population, human capital (spatial variation only) and structural factors (sectoral variation only). In addition, the paper finds that the zones and sectors with moderate growth have high poverty-growth elasticity, while zones and sectors with high growth have low poverty-growth elasticity. Thus, spatial and sectoral variations in growth pro-poorness result in weak response of poverty to growth in Nigeria.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Economic Growth, and Human Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1019. Africa's Media Boom: The Role of International Aid

Author:
Mary Myers
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
This year, 2014, marks 25 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the symbolic end of the Cold War in 1989. It also marks the anniversary of the beginning of an extraordinary proliferation of media outlets in sub-Saharan Africa, which swept across the continent, freeing Africa’s press and liberating the airwaves from monopoly by the state. Economics, technology, and socio-political forces all played major roles in this boom of Africa’s media. But one of the untold stories of these changes is the role of donor aid in this process. This is the subject of the Center for International Media Assistance’s latest report, Africa’s Media Boom: The Role of International Aid, by veteran international media consultant Mary Myers. It explores these questions: · How much of a catalyst were foreign donors in this mushrooming of Africa’s news media? · What were the motives and mechanisms of this aid? · What difference did it make at the time, and subsequently? · Was media proliferation necessarily a good thing–did it lead to pluralism and genuine freedom?
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Media
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

1020. Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes

Author:
Serge Nanourou and Abigal Wilson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Burundi is one of few countries in the world to have adopted a gender quota for its legislature in an effort to promote the inclusion and participation of women in the political process. As such, it presents an informative case study on the impact a gender quota can have as a catalyst for more progressive and inclusive governance. Given the International Foundation for Electoral System’s (IFES) commitment to gender equality and women’s participation in electoral processes and government, a thorough analysis demonstrating the effectiveness of quotas is a vital effort that aids IFES in supporting their use as a tool for democratic progress. As detailed in IFES’ Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes, gender quotas in Burundi, which have their origin in the 2000 Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement that marked the end of a long and bloody civil war and have been encoded in Burundi’s Constitution and Electoral Code, have led to significant increases in the number of women participating in government, which is an important initial step in ensuring meaningful participation of all members of society. Perhaps the greatest indicator of success of the gender quota policy in Burundi is the high rate of women’s representation in the legislature. In the 2010 elections, 31% of National Assembly members and 46% of senators were women. Most remarkable is the fact that provisions to ensure quota requirements, which are set at 30% minimum, did not have to be invoked in order to reach these figures. In contrast, the 30% quota was only reached after seats were added in the 2005 elections. Four years prior to that, before provisions ensuring a minimum of 30% of women’s representation in the legislature had been adopted, less than 20% of seats in both the National Assembly and the Senate were filled by women. This marked improvement from election to election is strong evidence for the efficacy of gender quotas in the Burundian context.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Women, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

1021. Political Finance and Gender Equality

Author:
Lolita Cigane and Magnus Ohman
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Throughout the world, women and men have different opportunities to participate in the political sphere. This is particularly true when it comes to participation as candidates and elected officials in electoral processes. There are many factors that contribute to existing gender inequalities in politics. While political finance is an important instrument for achieving gender equality in politics, the ongoing debates about political finance rarely consider the impact of money on the level of representation of both men and women in elected offices. IFES' latest publication, Political Finance and Gender Equality, has been developed on the premise that there is an important connection between political finance and gender equality that has not been explored in-depth. Discussions regarding political finance should take into account the issue of gender, particularly in consideration of the challenges that prospective women candidates face with regard to the role of money. This white paper attempts to take initial steps to examine the relationship between these two important issues. After an examination of political finance regulation and its impact on the chances of women and men to effectively run for elected office, the paper reviews the effect of varying electoral systems on gender equality in politics and political finance. Finally, this white paper discusses a recent pilot project in the Middle East and North Africa. A series of interviews with women candidates informed the work of multi-stakeholder working groups in Tunisia and Yemen, and these working groups provided recommendations for reform in their respective countries.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Politics, Finance, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Tunisia

1022. Perpetuation of instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (English)

Author:
Joyce Muraya and John Ahere
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the late 1990s, Zimbabwe became trapped in a ditch of multifaceted crises that were pronounced in the contest for political power between the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). This conflict revolved around the legitimacy of electoral processes, related institutions and the credibility of electoral outcomes. By 2007, the conflict had escalated to the extent that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and countries neighbouring Zimbabwe decided to mediate between the two parties to end the standoff, which had begun to negatively affect the entire southern Africa region. Thabo Mbeki, former President of South Africa (1999-2008), was then mandated by SADC to facilitate dialogue between the parties. Mediation efforts led to relatively credible harmonised parliamentary and presidential elections held on 29 March 2008. These elections, however, did not come up with a clear winner, forcing the country to call for a run-off. This second round of elections, held on 27 June 2008, was tainted by allegations of electoral flaws and widespread institutionalised violence. The result was a predictable regression into the pre-29 March era, prompting SADC to mandate South Africa to facilitate negotiations for a political solution among the key political players. In the face of varying interests converging on the Zimbabwe situation, South Africa’s role became even more difficult. This paper analyses South Africa’s facilitation approach to the inter-party negotiation process in Zimbabwe – from Mbeki’s “quiet diplomacy” to current President Jacob Zuma’s assertive stance – amid competing domestic and international interests. The analysis is based on critiques of realities confronting South Africa throughout the process. The paper presents South Africa’s facilitation approach as a consequence of four streams: historical experiences, South Africa’s post-apartheid foreign policy, African conflict resolution approaches, and a diagnosis of the dynamics of the Zimbabwean conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

1023. Just Peace: Achieving Peace, Justice, and Development in Post-Conflict Africa

Author:
Corinna Jentzsch
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The analysis begins with a review of trends in financing peace operations, including the proliferation of actors; existing financing mechanisms used by the UN, the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organiza- tion (NATO), and the World Bank; and the devolution of these operations to African regional organizations. Efforts of the past two decades to respond effectively to challenges to peace and security in Africa have produced vari- ous new programs and institutions, funds, and budgets and led to revisions of previous programs and financing mechanisms. This proliferation of institutions and funds has also created challenges, however, which the analysis reviews next, placing particular emphasis on three: the inadequacy of UN reforms to overcome financing constraints; the insufficiency and unpredictability of voluntary contributions; and the limited capacity of African regional organizations. All are rooted in the demand for more integrated approaches to peace operations on the one hand and the lack of coordination, duplication of structures, and waste of resources on the other.
Topic:
NATO, United Nations, Developing World, Finance, Europe Union, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

1024. Just Peace: Achieving Peace, Justice, and Development in Post-Conflict Africa

Author:
Dan Kuwali
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The political realities of post-conflict situations present hard choices in the peacebuilding and reconstruction processes. Most post-conflict societies face the dilemma of how to deal with past atrocities, especially genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. Where the perpetrators are the winners of the war or elections, victors’ justice has usually been rendered against the vanquished. Yet, even where this is not the case, national judicial systems in most post-conflict societies cannot immediately handle wide- scale prosecutions for atrocities in accordance with international standards of due process, and, in cases where a political compromise has taken place, the question is usually whether to forego justice for the sake of peace. The answer is often to offer amnesty to the perpetrators of atrocities, effectively giving them impunity. This discussion will explore a victim-oriented approach toward resolving the peace and justice dilemma while promoting reconciliation and development in post-conflict settings. The starting point is the assertion that mass atrocities such as genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity can brook no impunity, although each conflict is sui generis, and legal concerns must be balanced with political reality in determining the appropriate reaction to past atrocities. Following the analysis is an outline of the steps that should be taken to eradicate the root causes of conflicts leading to mass atrocities in Africa.
Topic:
Genocide, War Crimes, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa

1025. South Africa’s Emerging Black Middle Class: A Harbinger of Political Change?

Author:
Robert Mattes
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
South Africa has seen a significant increase in the size of its black middle class in the post-apartheid period, but the attitudinal consequences of indicators of the middle class, as of 2011, are inconsistent and modest in size. While members of the middle class are no more likely to hold democratic values than other black South Africans, they are more likely to want government to secure higher-order, rather than basic, survival needs. They are less likely to identify with the governing African National Congress, to turn out to vote, or to voice their concerns by contacting officials or joining collective action. At the same time, intra-class racial differences between middle-class black respondents, on one hand, and middle-class white, coloured, and Indian respondents, on the other, are still substantial.
Topic:
Race, Inequality, Diversity, Class, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1026. Does the African Middle Class Defend Democracy?

Author:
Nic Cheeseman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Barrington Moore’s famous line “no bourgeoisie, no democracy” is one of the most quoted claims in political science. But has the rise of the African middle class promoted democratic consolidation? This paper uses the case of Kenya to investigate the attitudes and behaviours of the middle class. Analysis of Afrobarometer survey data reveals that the middle class is more likely to support the opposition and hold pro-democratic attitudes. This suggests Moore’s claim holds, at least for some African countries, and that contemporary demographic changes will improve the prospects for democratic consolidation. However, qualitative evidence from the Kenyan 2013 general election raises important questions about the resilience of these attitudes. The middle class may be more inclined to democratic attitudes than their less well-off counterparts, but class continues to intersect with ethnicity, and its political salience is likely to wax and wane as a result.
Topic:
Democracy, Class, Participation, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
Africa

1027. What Drives Quality of Schools in Africa? Disentangling Social Capital and Ethnic Divisions

Author:
Guillaume Hollard and Omar Sene
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Because of limited governmental resources in Africa, communities are often left in charge of managing their own schools. Two theories of African community’s ability to engage in collective action and improve quality of schools have emerged. While cross-country evidence underlines ethnic divisions as a key limit to collective action in Africa, field work suggests that social capital (i.e. the community’s ability to engage in collective action or establish shared norms) is the main driver of the quality of local public goods. In this paper, we use Afrobarometer data to test the role of social capital and ethnic divisions in determining the quality of schools. We capture social capital by the average level of trust and ethnic divisions via an index of ethnic fractionalization. We skirt reverse causality problems between trust and quality of public goods by using historical information on the settlement patterns of ethnic groups in Sub-Saharan Africa. This yields measures of ethnic inherited trust which we use as an instrument for trust. To address concerns about endogenous residential sorting, we instrument ethnic fractionalization by the initial population density of ethnic historical homelands. We find that a one percent increase in the local level of trust increases the quality of local public goods by 0.2 to 1.14 percent. After controlling trust we discover ethnic fragmentation plays only a marginal role.
Topic:
Education, Ethnicity, Youth, Social Capital, and Students
Political Geography:
Africa

1028. Another Resource Curse? The Impact of Remittances on Political Participation

Author:
Kim Yi Dionne, Kris L. Imman, and Gabriella R. Montinola
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
International remittances have grown dramatically over the past few decades. Existing scholarship on the impact of remittances has focused on their socioeconomic effects. This article focuses instead on the political impact of remittances, and in particular, its effect on political participation. Recent work on Mexico suggests that remittances may be a resource curse. They insulate recipients from local economic conditions, weaken the link between government performance and individual well-being, and reduce incentives to participate in politics. The resource model of participation, however, suggests that since remittances increase incomes, they should increase political engagement. To our knowledge, we provide the first cross-country, individual-level analysis on remittances’ effect on political participation. We employ data from 27,713 individuals across 20 sub-Saharan African countries. We find that remittance recipients are less likely to vote but more likely to participate in politics by contacting government officials directly as well as joining demonstrations and protest marches. Our work thus shows that remittances may not necessarily demobilize citizens, as previous work on Mexico suggests.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Citizenship, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

1029. Public Transfers and Subsistence Producer Disincentives in Botswana

Author:
Tebogo B. Seleka and Khaufelo R. Lekobane
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper investigates the disincentive effects of public transfers on subsistence producers in Botswana. Comparative statics analyses indicate that public transfers would not affect farm production when profit and utility maximization decisions are recursive, with the profit maximization decision made first. However, when such decisions are interdependent, public transfers would lead to a reduction in farm output. Empirical results reveal that social pensions have impacted positively on cultivated area, but have had no impact on cereal yields and output. However, government food rations have impacted adversely on cultivated area, yields and output; they are a disincentive to crop production because they are relatively more sizable, consistent and certain. This, it is argued, is because food packages are directly substitutable for subsistence crop production. Therefore, public policy in Botswana should consider moving away from food to cash transfers to minimize such disincentive effects.
Topic:
Agriculture, Welfare, Safety Net, Work, and Public Transfers
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1030. Determinants of Household Welfare and Poverty in Botswana, 2002/03 and 2009/10

Author:
Khaufelo R. Lekobane and Tebogo B. Seleka
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper investigates household determinants of welfare and poverty in Botswana. Using the 2002/03 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) and the 2009/10 Botswana Core Welfare Indicator Survey (BCWIS), and employing regression analysis, we identify education level and employment status of the household head, as some of the key determinants of household welfare and poverty in Botswana. Moreover, we find that residing in rural areas increases the likelihood of being poor and negatively relates to welfare. Therefore, public policy must continue to emphasize on education and job creation amongst the strategies for poverty reduction in Botswana. Still, initiatives for rural development are also critical for poverty reduction.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Welfare, Consumption, and Income
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1031. The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class in Zambia

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The middle class is increasingly becoming a topical issue in Zambia. However, the lack of a definitive measure of the middle class in the country makes it difficult to have targeted policies on this group of people, perceived worldwide to be the drivers of economic growth. With high and rising income inequality in Zambia, we propose two operational definitions of the middle class by exploring the middle class from a median perspective and from a ‘relative affluence’ perspective. Defining the middle class on the basis of the ‘actual middle’ versus ‘relative affluence’ provides vastly different pictures. The results show that individuals and households that fall in the ‘relative affluence’ group have achieved a modest standard of living and are actually near the top of the country’s income ladder while households in the actual middle of the income distribution in Zambia have a standard of living well below what can be perceived as a ‘middle-class lifestyle’ elsewhere. This requires targeted policy designs when referring to changes in the economic status of the Zambian middle class. We propose a household income distribution framework which combines both the actual middle households and the relatively affluent middle households to create an enabling environment for inclusive growth policies, rather than just pro-poor policies.
Topic:
Education, Economic Growth, Class, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

1032. Biosafety of GM Crops in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania

Author:
Judith A. Chambers
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Against a background of rapid global adoption rates and two decades of safe use, the overly cautious approach to genetic modification (GM) technology in agriculture by African governments seems misplaced. To date, only three African countries are engaged in commercial production of GM crops, although others are experimenting with the technology. Among those African countries experimenting with the technology, several are proceeding along a path toward commercialization and reside geographically close in East Africa, where the potential for regional trade impacts and issues exist. An examination of their historical circumstance and experience with GM technology, and the resultant effects on regulatory policy, can offer some useful insights about the various factors that impact GM technology adoption in Africa, especially from the perspective of the biosafety policies enacted.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Food, and Governance
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, and Tanzania

1033. Investment Facilitation in Transitional and Fragile States

Author:
Jake Cusack and Matt Tilleard
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This paper outlines a new tool for policymakers to deploy to encourage private-sector development in developing nations. Specifically it argues that in fragile states there are systemic failures that cause an intermediation gap between sources of capital and entrepreneurs seeking investment. This gap prevents investment by raising transaction costs and exacerbating information asymmetry. We present a case study of this gap as observed in our work in South Sudan. Then we propose a model of investment facilitation that bridges the intermediation gap. The model is based on donor funding of a neutral nongovernment facilitator to identify attractive investment opportunities, link them to capital, and facilitate transactions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

1034. The Great Power Struggle for Africa The Crisis in Mali

Author:
Fouad Farhaoui
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
Though the French intervention against extremists in northern Mali thrust the crisis in Mali onto the international stage, the conflict itself is the result of long-stewing factors left over from the French colonial period.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa

1035. Mauritania and Newly Emerging Economies in Africa Turkey and China

Author:
Fouad Farhaoui
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
Pre and post-independence policies have yielded volatile problems for African States. North African states, in particular, have seen disintegration between their Arab, Berber, and Black ethnic groups.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Turkey, and Arabia

1036. Building Police Institutions in Fragile States

Author:
Richard Downie
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The police are one of the most critical institutions of the state. This is particularly true in nations emerging from conflict, which are characterized by insecurity and high levels of crime. Without security, governments cannot begin rebuilding their economies and improving the lives of their citizens. As a result, they will continue to struggle for legitimacy, and a return to conflict will remain an ever-present risk. A nation's military has an important role to play in dealing with external threats and establishing basic security in the immediate aftermath of conflict, but the police are the institution best suited for dealing with internal security and addressing the safety needs of the public. For citizens, a police officer is the symbolic representation of state authority. Their view of the state and their acceptance of its authority are partially shaped by their interactions with the police.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, Corruption, and Crime
Political Geography:
Africa

1037. Maternal Health in Nigeria: With Leadership, Progress is Possible

Author:
Jennifer G. Cooke and Farha Tahir
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target date of 2015 approaches, there is a growing sense of urgency among international agencies to intensify efforts on the global challenge of maternal health, where, according to the 2012 MDG progress report, levels of maternal mortality remain “far from the 2015 target”. In 2012, both the G - 8 and the African Union made maternal and child health a keystone of their respective annual summits , and the United Nations launched the Global Strategy for Women ' s and Children ' s Health at a special General Assembly event. A 2 012 global summit in London, co - led by the Gates Foundation, the UK government, and the UN Population Fund, generated $2.6 billion in donor pledges for family planning, a critical element of maternal health. The United States has made maternal health an increasingly important element in U.S. global health efforts, manifested most recently with the launch in June 2012 of the Saving Mothers, Giving Life initiative. The initiative, an ambitious public - private partnership intended “ to drive efficiencies, spur innovation, and ensure impact ” in maternal health , has the strong backing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for whom maternal and child health, and women's empowerment more generally, have been consistent priorities.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

1038. Conference Report: The Maghreb in Transition

Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Maghreb is in motion. Political changes underway across North Africa have created opportunities for more representative and transparent governance. Debates over the nature of authority and the role of the state that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago now shape political discourse. And yet, doubts remain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, Arabia, and North Africa

1039. Strengthening U.S. Investments in Women's Global Health

Author:
Janet Fleischman and Alisha Kramer
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
U.S. policymakers and private-sector partners increasingly appreciate the importance of targeted U.S. investments in women's health to achieve global health outcomes, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.With budgetary constraints worsening, progress in women's health will require maximizing investments by engaging new partners, identifying program synergies, and aligning with countries' national priorities to meet women's needs. Such strategic coordination—involving maternal newborn and child health, voluntary family planning, and HIV and AIDS services—presents new opportunities to expand the impact of U.S. investments.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

1040. The Future of the U.S.–South Africa HIV/AIDS Partnership

Author:
J. Stephen Morrison, Sharon Stash, and Todd Summers
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
South Africa has the highest burden of HIV/AIDS in the world, with 5.6 million people living with the virus and over 400,000 newly infected annually. Since 2004, the U.S. government has committed more than $4 billion to combating HIV/AIDS in South Africa—the largest U.S. investment in HIV/AIDS worldwide. Continued progress in controlling HIV/AIDS in South Africa, the epicenter of the pandemic, is pivotal to sustained progress against the disease worldwide.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Health, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and South Africa

1041. Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China

Author:
David E. Brown
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The frenetic search for hydrocarbons in Africa has become so intense and wide ranging that there is planned or ongoing oil and gas exploration in at least 51 of the continent's 54 countries. Knowledge about Africa's geology is improving rapidly, generating great optimism about the continent's energy future. Onshore and offshore rifts and basins created when the African continent separated from the Americas and Eurasia 150 million years ago are now recognized as some of the most promising hydrocarbon provinces in the world. Offshore Angola and Brazil, Namibia and Brazil, Ghana and French Guyana, Morocco and Mexico, Somalia and Yemen, and Mozambique and Madagascar are just a few of the geological analogues where large oil fields have been discovered or are be-lieved to lie. One optimistic but quite credible scenario is that future discoveries in Africa will be around five timestheir current level based on what remains un-explored on the continent versus currently known sub-soil assets. If proven true, this could have a pro-foundly positive impact on Africa's future growth and strategic position in the global economy.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, America, Eurasia, Asia, Brazil, Yemen, Mozambique, Mexico, Morocco, Somalia, Angola, Ghana, Namibia, Guyana, and Moldavia

1042. Stabilizing Afghanistan: Proposals for Improving Security, Governance, and Aid/Economic Development

Author:
Tobias Ellwood
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Afghanistan's future remains bleak. After a painful decade, all must now admit that Plan A (as outlined in the Bonn Accord1 and confirmed in the Afghan constitution has yet to create the necessary foundations for stability. Much of the international community privately acknowledges the gloomy outlook and now seeks a decent interval of stability after 2014 to distance itself from the responsibility for what might happen next as global attention turns to the jihadist threat in the Sahel region of Africa.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Africa

1043. The Security of Cities: Ecology and Conflict on an Urbanizing Planet

Author:
Peter Engelke
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Humankind recently crossed a historic threshold: over half of all human beings now live in cities. In contrast to most of human history, cities have become the default condition for human habitation almost everywhere on earth. Urbanization is proceeding rapidly and at unprecedented scales in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. These regions are poised to join Latin America, Europe, North America, and Australia as having more people living in cities than in rural areas. Between 2010 and 2050, the world's urban population is expected to grow by 3 billion people—a figure roughly equal to the world's total population in 1950—with the great majority living in developing-world cities.3 Our species, in other words, is already an urban one and will become even more so throughout this century.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Urbanization, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Australia, and North America

1044. AU-NATO Collaboration: Implications and Prospects

Author:
Brooke Smith-Windsor, J. Shola Omotola, Sally Khalifa Isaac, Adesoji Adeniyi, Bola A. Akinterinwa, James Marcus Bridger, Christopher Coker, Christopher L. Daniels, Solomon Ayele Dersso, Kumbirai Hodzi, Christian Kabati, Markus Kaim, Mehari Taddele Maru; Kay Mathews, Alexander Moens, José Francisco Pavia, Jimmy Peterson, and Kai Schaefer
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The birth of the African Union (AU) a decade ago coincided with the birth of what has been termed the African Renaissance. This encompasses Africa's resolve to challenge the normative analysis, the stereotypes and the criticisms that the world has imposed on it. It involves a determination to take control of its destiny, to develop authentic solutions, and to stand up and be counted. Fortunately such a development is provided for in Chapter VIII of the United Nations (UN) Charter, and is also acknowledged in Article 12 of the treaty by which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded - both of which recognize universal as well as regional jurisdictions.
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa

1045. South Africa's Media 20 Years After Apartheid

Author:
Libby Lloyd
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
CIMA announces the release of its most recent report, South Africa's Media 20 Years After Apartheid, by Libby Lloyd, a journalist and researcher on freedom of expression and media policy in South Africa. The report traces how in the post-1994 democratic era South Africa's news media has become among the most concentrated in the world, affecting the quality of its content and the sales of its newspapers. It also examines how decreasing international development support has exacerbated that process - See more at: http://cima.ned.org/publications/south-africas-media-20-years-after-apartheid#sthash.4gCKzUe6.dpuf.
Topic:
Apartheid, Democratization, Human Rights, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Africa

1046. Planning for Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power in South Africa: Identifying Cost-Effective Deployment Strategies Using Spatiotemporal Modeling

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in coming decades. The challenge is to turn laudable aspirations into concrete plans that minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy intermittent WSP technologies. This study develops a 10-year database of expected hourly power generation for onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, and concentrating solar power technologies across South Africa. A simple power system model simulates the economic and environmental performance of different WSP spatial deployment strategies in 2040, while ensuring a minimum level of system reliability.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1047. Contingent Democrats in Action: Organized Labor and Regime Change in the Republic of Niger

Author:
Sebastian Elischer
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The effects of organized labor on regime change in developing countries are not clear‐cut. Optimists argue that union agitation is conducive to both democratic transition and consolidation processes. Pessimists hold that unions will support any regime that is conducive to their demands. Accordingly, unions may support regime transitions; however, once their economic interests are under threat, they will jeopardize the subsequent consolidation process. Systematic studies on the effects of organized labor on regime change in sub‐ Saharan Africa are sparse and largely confined to the (pre)transition phase. This article examines the role of organized labor in Niger between 1990 and 2010. Given the high number of regime breakdowns during the period, a longitudinal study of Nigerien labor enables a critical examination of motives and actions of organized labor toward different regime types. In contrast to other recent findings on African unionism, the article confirms the pessimistic view.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Africa

1048. New Meeting Note: Security and Development in the Sahel-Sahara

Author:
Mireille Affa'a-Mindzie
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
After the severe twin crises that nearly brought Mali to its knees in January 2012, the country is gradually recovering from their debilitating consequences. In August 2013, Mali successfully elected its new president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, thus putting an end to an eighteen-month-long transitional government that was put in place following the March 2012 coup. Even though the violence has abated and renewed hope seems to be in the air, the structural causes of the Malian conflict are still stubbornly present and their consequences are still being felt by neighboring Sahel countries that suffer from similar underlying ills. The situation in Mali and other concerned states in the region generated a renewed interest in the Sahel-Sahara region and in efforts to stabilize this region. This prompted the International Peace Institute, the Executive Secretariat of the Strategy for Security and Development in the Sahel-Saharan Areas of Niger (SDS Sahel Niger), and the Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre 4S) to convene an international seminar on security and development in the Sahel-Sahara on February 15 and 16, 2013, in Niamey, Niger.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Development, Economics, Peace Studies, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1049. The New Transparency in Development Economics: Lessons from the Millennium Villages Controversy

Author:
Michael Clemens and Gabriel Demombynes
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Millennium Villages Project is a high profile, multi-country development project that has aimed to serve as a model for ending rural poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. The project became the subject of controversy when the methodological basis of early claims of success was questioned. The lively ensuing debate offers lessons on three recent mini-revolutions that have swept the field of development economics: the rising standards of evidence for measuring impact, the “open data” movement, and the growing role of the blogosphere in research debates.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

1050. U.S. Health Engagement in Africa: A Decade of Remarkable Achievement—Now What?

Author:
J. Stephen Morrison
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In the past decade, there has been a steep and historic expansion of U.S. health engagement in Africa, principally through the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI). U.S. commitments to global health, of which over 70 percent is directed to Africa, rose from $1.7 billion in FY2001 to $8.9 billion in FY2012.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

1051. Somalia Redux? Assessing the New Somali Federal Government

Author:
Matt Bryden
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Somalia marked a milestone in September 2012 with the establishment of a new federal government that has since won the support and recognition of the international community. After more than 20 years of conflict, crisis, and statelessness and 12 years of ineffectual transitional authorities, the Somali federal government (SFG) has been widely welcomed as Somalia's first “post-transition” government. It has been greeted with such a groundswell of optimism that many observers, including British Prime Minister David Cameron, have drawn parallels with the “Arab Spring” that has transformed parts of the Middle East. It is tempting to imagine that Somalia is finally on the path to recovery.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Arabia, and Somalia

1052. Africa's Information Revolution: Implications for Crime, Policing, and Citizen Security

Author:
Steven Livingston
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Violent crime represents the most immediate threat to the personal security of most Africans. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 36 percent of all homicides globally occur in Africa. With 17 deaths per 100,000, the homicide rate in Africa is double the global average. Rates of robberies and rape in Africa also exceed global norms. The problem is worse in urban areas, with many of Africa's urban-dwellers “often” worrying about crime.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Fragile/Failed State, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

1053. The Eritrean Diaspora: Savior or Gravedigger of the Regime? Diaspora Responses to the Imposition of UN Sanctions

Author:
Nicole Hirt
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the impact of UN‐imposed sanctions on the stability of the Eritrean regime, using diaspora behavior as an explanatory variable of crucial importance. It explores the transnational nature of Eritrean society, which is characterized by long‐distance nationalism, and examines the history and structure of the Eritrean diaspora as well as its transformation since the political crisis of 2001. The paper argues that the government and its supporters among the diaspora, as well as regime opponents, have all instrumentalized the sanctions for their own specific purposes. While the former use the sanctions to create a “rally around the flag” effect and for fundraising purposes, the latter campaign against the 2 percent diaspora tax levied by the government because it may be used for illicit purposes in breach of the sanctions regime. However, due to the opposition\'s disunity and failure to organize joint campaigns, its efforts have so far failed to decisively contribute to the demise of Eritrea\'s crumbling rebel regime. Meanwhile financial flows to both the government\'s coffers and to private individuals continue to play a stabilizing role. Nevertheless, unsuccessful domestic policies, the mass exodus resulting from the militarization of the entire society and an isolationist foreign policy are all contributing to the growing weakness of the regime, and with it the State of Eritrea.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diaspora, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Eritrea

1054. Sudan: Preserving Peace in the East

Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The situation in Sudan’s forgotten East – without deadly conflict since the 2006 Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) – stands in contrast to the fighting besetting the country’s other peripheries. But this peace is increasingly fragile. Seven years after the ESPA’s signing, the conflict’s root causes remain and in some respects are more acute, due to the failure to implement many of the agreement’s core provisions. Mirroring elsewhere in the country, with no sign of genuine efforts by Khartoum to address the situation, conflict could erupt in the East again and lead to further national fragmentation. All ESPA stakeholders urgently need to reconvene and address the deteriorating situation; the leading sign atories need publicly to concede that the promises of the original agreement have not met expectations and reach a consensus on remedial measures.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

1055. Challenges of the International Monetary System and Response Options: A South African Perspective

Author:
Johan van den Heever
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
For the purposes of this paper, the international monetary system (IMS) may be described as the various mechanisms and institutions that underpin the exchange of different national and regional currencies in world trade and finance. The history of this system is well documented — for instance, Eichengreen (2008) and Lin, Fardoust and Rosenblatt (2012) — and proposals aimed at its reform are not in short supply.
Topic:
Economics, International Monetary Fund, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1056. Can Development Interventions Help Post-conflict Communities Build Social Cohesion? The Case of the Liberia Millennium Villages

Author:
Elisabeth King
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the efforts of one international development intervention — the Kokoyah Millennium Villages Project (KMVP) — to improve welfare and build social cohesion in post-conflict Liberia. This study is based on a preliminary analysis of survey data from a quasi- experimental, difference-in-differences (DID) research design, and shows that social cohesion was already higher than anticipated before the project began. Despite operational challenges with implementation of the KMVP, complaints about the project, and lack of improved perceptions of welfare, there is evidence that the KMVP had positive effects on some measures of social cohesion and no evidence of adverse effects, yet no changes on some factors that may be important to contribute to development. This paper demonstrates that DID measures and quasi-experimental designs that use appropriate comparison groups can yield important insights in social science research conducted in complex and changing contexts such as a post-civil war setting. This paper seeks to foster a conversation about the many relationships between development and social cohesion (particularly in post-conflict contexts), the possibilities and challenges for researchers in studying these relationships and the importance of doing so for intended beneficiaries on the ground.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

1057. Is Anyone Listening? Does US Foreign Assistance Target People's Top Priorities?

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The United States government has made repeated declarations over the last decade to align its assistance programs behind developing countries' priorities. By utilizing public attitude surveys for 42 African and Latin American countries, this paper examines how well the US has implemented this guiding principle. Building upon the Quality of Official Development Assistance Assessment (QuODA) approach, I identify what people cite most frequently as the 'most pressing problems' facing their nations and then measure the percentage of US assistance commitments that are directed towards addressing them. By focusing on public surveys over time, this analysis attempts to provide a more nuanced and targeted examination of whether US portfolios are addressing what people care the most about. As reference points, I compare US alignment trends with the two regional multilateral development banks (MDBs) – the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. Overall, this analysis suggests that US assistance may be only modestly aligned with what people in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America cite as their nation's most pressing problems. By comparison, the African Development Bank – which is majority-led by regional member nations – performs significantly better than the United States. Like the United States, however, the Inter-American Development Bank demonstrates a low relative level of support for people's top concerns.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Latin America

1058. Effectiveness Review: Drought Management Initiative: Livestock Component, Kenya

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Under Oxfam Great Britain's (OGB) Global Performance Framework (GPF), samples of sufficiently mature projects are being randomly selected each year and their effectiveness rigorously assessed. The livestock component of the Turkana-Pokot Drought Management Initiative (DMI) was randomly selected for an Effectiveness Review under the adaptation and risk reduction thematic area in the 2012/13 financial year. DMI was a three-year programme implemented by a consortium of NGOs which aimed to mitigate the effects of climatic shocks among pastoralist communities in north-western Kenya. Oxfam GB was responsible for implementing the livestock component of this programme in three of the most remote pastoralist communities in the northern part of Turkana County. The activities carried out included establishing pastoralist field schools (PFSs) in each community, to provide members with training on improving livestock management, drought mitigation, and livelihood diversification. In the same communities, the project supported the establishment of village community banks (VICOBAs), as well as training community animal-health workers (CAHWs) and setting up village land-use planning committees (VLUPCs).
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

1059. Piecing Together the Jigsaw: Prospects for improved social relations after the armed conflict in northern Mali

Author:
Elise Ford and Ilaria Allegrozzi
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Since January 2012, Mali has been suffering an unprecedented and multi-dimensional socio-political, security and humanitarian crisis. It follows years of weakening state authority, poor governance, a disintegrating army and inter-community tensions. Antagonism and tension between and within communities have built up since the beginning of the conflict, and the rebuilding of social ties and the implementation of a genuine reconciliation process are among the main challenges that must be overcome in order to reconstruct Mali and ensure its long-term stability.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, Islam, Migration, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and Northern Mali

1060. A Mushrooming business: How Oxfam is facilitating development of the horticulture sector while improving the status of women in Rwanda

Author:
Sharad Eldon Mahajan and Laura Kigali
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
What change(s) was this approach intending to influence through its leverage strategy? Oxfam's livelihoods work in Rwanda focuses on women's economic leadership in the horticulture sector. In making women an integral part of the supply chain, we hope to bring about long - term societal change, both facilitating development of the horticulture sector and improving the status of women. We seek to do this by working with and through partners such as the government, private sector, micro finance institutions (MFIs), and civil society, to leverage large - scale change through evidence - based advocacy.
Topic:
Agriculture, Civil Society, Development, Gender Issues, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Africa

1061. Advancing Stability and Reconciliation in Guinea-Bissau: Lessons from Africa's First Narco-State

Author:
Davin O'Regan and Peter Thompson
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
A string of crises stretching back more than a decade has rendered Guinea-Bissau one of the most fragile states in Africa. This recurring cycle of political violence, instability, and incapacitated governance, moreover, has accelerated in recent years, most notably following a military coup in April 2012. Exploiting this volatility, trafficking networks have coopted key political and military leaders and transformed Guinea-Bissau into a hub for illicit commerce, particularly the multibillion dollar international trade in cocaine. This has directly contributed to instability in Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, and elsewhere in Africa. European and African organized criminal groups have likewise established ties to the Guinea-Bissau trade. Drawn by the lucrative revenues, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and other militant groups in West Africa have also been linked to Guinea-Bissau trafficking. Now commonly referred to as Africa's first narco-state, Guinea-Bissau has become a regional crossroads of instability.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Narcotics Trafficking, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

1062. The Retention of Highly Skilled Returnees in Mozambique: An Institutional Approach

Author:
André Corrêa d'Almeida
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
This research combines Institutional Rational Choice (IRC), the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, Return Migration theories and International Development theories to understand how Mozambican highly skilled returnees (HSRs) interact with the institutional setting in the home country while pursuing their personal aspirations. Institutional setting in this context is defined as a multidimensional space of factors – institutions plus other contextual variables co-evolving as they interact with each other – in which HSRs try to mobilize resources over time towards their personal goals. Factors impose elements of order in the context where they operate and they affect the distribution of preferences, incentives, and outcomes. A better understanding of the constraints imposed by these factors/elements on HSRs’ behavior and personal satisfaction could allow governments in extremely poor countries to prioritize interventions for institutional development given the very scarce resources available. These could have the interacting effect of increasing the capacity of HSRs to contribute to the development of Mozambique and provide positive signals to encourage the return of more. Hypotheses around three specific types of factors/domains – professional opportunities, information and communication technologies (ICTs), and governmental programs – are tested. The methodology applied includes (i) a cross-sectional purposive sample of Mozambicans who recently returned to the homecountry after obtaining post-secondary education abroad; (ii) an online survey complemented with field interviews; (iii) bivariate analysis; and (iv) multivariate model-building. The results demonstrate, first, that all three factors tested are associated with retention. This finding supports the IAD’s argument that new policies and institutions can be devised to shape those other contextual variables. Second, this research demonstrates that the degree of this association differs across factors. Third, this research shows that the degree of association also differs from urban to rural settings. Moreover, the first and foremost role played by professional-related elements in the capacity of a country to retain some of its most well-educated citizens supports previous literature. Further, this research supports the argument that institutional development precedes economic development. Also, this research does not find empirical support for the hypothesis that Mozambique has been facing increasing levels of the brain drain. In addition, the “Satisfaction With Life Scale” (SWLS) proxy for retention is among all proxies tested the one mostly associated with the institutional setting in the home country. More specifically, the possibility of achieving personal goals is the most important component of one’s overall life satisfaction. Finally, there is a temporal “ripple-effect” on the association (i.e., progressively weaker) of the current institutional setting both with past and with the possibility of future behavior. The implications resulting from these findings are discussed and classified into three categories: (i) theoretical; (ii) practical for policy; and (iii) for future research.
Topic:
Migration, Brain Drain, Skills, Reintegration, and Institutional Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

1063. Financing Water in Africa

Author:
Kate Bayliss
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Despite repeated policy initiatives from donors and governments, the human and economic cost of continued lack of access to safe water and sanitation in sub‐Saharan Africa remains high. This paper shows that a radical reorientation of policy is needed to achieve a significant increase in investment finance in order to raise access levels. Rather than continuing to pursue policies that have failed for the past two decades, such as bringing in the private sector and raising prices to cost recovery levels, attention needs to shift to wider aspects of domestic revenue mobilization to support public investment.
Topic:
Privatization, Water, Inequality, Investment, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Africa

1064. To pay or Not to Pay? Citizens’ Attitudes towards Taxation in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and South Africa

Author:
Merima Ali, Odd Helge Fjeldstad, and Ingrid Hoem Sjursen
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper examines factors that determine citizens’ tax-compliance attitude in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and South Africa. Using the 2011/12 Afrobarometer survey data, we find that tax-compliance attitude is positively correlated with the provision of public services in the four countries. However, the correlation depends on the specific service in question and differs between countries. Tax knowledge and awareness are found to be positively correlated with tax-compliance attitude. On the other hand, frequent payment to non-state actors in exchange for security and individual’s perception that their own ethnic group is treated unfairly by the government are negatively correlated with tax-compliance attitude.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Citizenship, Tax Systems, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, South Africa, and Tanzania

1065. Agriculture as a Potent Economic Growth Driver for the Nigerian Economy

Author:
Daniel S. Ugwu, Emeka Nzeh, and Uzochukwu Amakom
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study is an attempt to assess the place of agriculture as a potent economic growth driver in the Nigerian economy. Essentially, the study explores information concerning the critical roles of agriculture to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and or economic growth of Nigeria; the study went forward to identify various endogenous and exogenous factors that have hindered the maximum performance of the agricultural sector in the country. Furthermore, the study, identifies other economic growth drivers that can accelerate the repositioning of agriculture as a major economic growth driver in Nigeria and Africa and finally, the study explores the various strategies that can be adopted to position Nigeria and indeed Africa on the path of prosperity through the development of the agricultural sector of the economy. The primary objective of the study is to explore ways of enhancing economic growth through agriculture by virtue of its potency as a major growth driver of the Nigerian economy and the African continent as a whole.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Poverty, Food, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1066. Public Financial Management and Fiscal Outcomes in Nigeria : Empirical Evidence

Author:
Kanayo Ogujiuba and Harrison Okafor
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study analysed the relationship between public financial management systems and fiscal outcomes in Nigeria. The findings indicate that institutional factors such as corruption and literacy rate affect the institutional pillars of PFM in Nigeria. The pillars include governance structure, accountability, transparency and predictability. Poor budget coordinating institutions, lack of respect for the rule of law, weak fundamentals of appropriation templates and contract management and poor accounting systems are the critical factors undermining the ability of these pillars to positively influence fiscal outcomes in Nigeria. Thus, the need to critically improve the index of capture, budget institutions and the coordination of the MDA’s capital budgeting system through integrated and systematic accounting system cannot be overemphasized.
Topic:
Finance, Accountability, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1067. Opportunities and Challenges of South-South Partnership: Reflections on a Collaborative Research Project on Violence and Transition in Africa

Author:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report reflects on the experience of four South-based organisations in conducting collaborative research on violence and transition in Africa. It explores some of the challenges and opportunities offered by working collaboratively on common themes across different contexts with research partners with diverse goals and institutional arrangements, and seeks to draw some lessons for how such partnerships can benefit individual organisations and research on violence more generally. The report is based on the final project meeting where partners engaged in a joint reflection on more than three years of collaboration.
Topic:
Partnerships, Transitional Justice, Violence, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1068. Trip Modeling and Cost Analysis for Public Road Transport System for the City of Lusaka

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR) and ROM Transportation Engineering Ltd.
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The increase in the use of private motor vehicles for routine travel within the City of Lusaka suggests weakness in the Public Transport (PT) system. Regrettably, the majority of the intra-city travelers have to accept an ineffective and inefficient PT system or resort to walking/cycling whereas those who can afford turn to private motoring. . It is evident that the less privileged travelers of the City are the most affected by the weaknesses of the current PT system. The current PT fares are unsustainably high and service levels undesirable. This is largely owes to the minimal regulation approach to public transport operations in Zambia. The commitment by Government to invest in transport infrastructure such as ring roads, filter lanes and traffic light is backed by the realization that intra-city travel is becoming more and more problematic and that the situation would become unsustainable in future if it were to be left unaddressed. These measures will substantially tackle a lot of the emerging local travel problems, but the need to examine the current travel demand management and its effectiveness in promotion of public transport usage is equally important. Additional measures will be required to enhance PT services provision, making it more efficient, effective and affordable. Enhanced PT services are expected to engender a reduction in dependency on private motoring and the associated traffic congestion concerns on one hand and an increase PT usage on the other. In this research we investigated some of the key features of the PT system in the City of Lusaka, model its trips and analyses its costs. Our analysis is based on a survey of bus services, covering approximately 50 bus routes and over 1,700 passengers. GPS data was also gathered for purposes of modelling trips and charting bus routes. In our analysis we considered aspects of service specifications, current level of service, fuel consumption, revenue, average trip costs, driver expenses, operator expenses and bus revenue allocation. Most of these aspects were found to be far off from the international best practice and international benchmarking. Our research concluded that the PT system for Lusaka fails to sufficiently meet the routine travel requirements of the majority. Finally, we recommend some measure that could be considered to address the issues arising and to better manage the travel demand of the City’s population. These measures are first highlighted in isolation because they can be implemented as such. However, we recommend combining all the measures into a single set of actions which can be implemented in stages in order to harness the synergies of a joint implementation which could yield up to as much as 48 percent PT fare reduction.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Transportation, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Zambia and Africa

1069. The Birth, Death and Survival of Exports in Zambia 1999 - 2011

Author:
Bernard Banda and Joseph Simumba
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This paper deals with the dynamics of Zambia’s export performance, analyzing the birth, death and persistence of exporting in various products and destinations. We use a framework that has recently proliferated in international trade to decompose the growth of Zambia’s exports into an “intensive” and “extensive” margin. Our results show that the extensive margin is the dominant driver of export growth in Zambia. We attribute the poor performance of the intensive margin to the low survival among exporters that hardly lasts for more than a year. Our findings imply that interventions to support new-exporting should be encouraged. But it also raises key questions on the sustainability of export growth in the long-run. Therefore, we propose that interventions should target improving the duration of survival among exporters and deepen their intensity of exporting once they are able to survive longer. In conclusion, there is urgent need to carefully understand the factors that are responsible for the high mortality among exporters within the first year of birth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

1070. The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class in Zambia

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The middle class is increasingly becoming a topical issue in Zambia. However, the lack of a definitive measure of the middle class in the country makes it difficult to have targeted policies on this group of people, perceived worldwide to be the drivers of economic growth. With high and rising income inequality in Zambia, we propose two operational definitions of the middle class by exploring the middle class from a median perspective and from a ‘relative affluence’ perspective. Defining the middle class on the basis of the ‘actual middle’ versus ‘relative affluence’ provides vastly different pictures. The results show that individuals and households that fall in the ‘relative affluence’ group have achieved a modest standard of living and are actually near the top of the country’s income ladder while households in the actual middle of the income distribution in Zambia have a standard of living well below what can be perceived as a ‘middle-class lifestyle’ elsewhere. This requires targeted policy designs when referring to changes in the economic status of the Zambian middle class. We propose a household income distribution framework which combines both the actual middle households and the relatively affluent middle households to create an enabling environment for inclusive growth policies, rather than just pro-poor policies.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Economic Growth, Middle Class, and Household Income
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

1071. What's Wrong with Dodd-Frank 1502? Conflict Minerals, Civilian Livelihoods, and the Unintended Consequences of Western Advocacy

Author:
Laura E. Seay
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Although its provisions have yet to be implemented, section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is already having a profound effect on the Congolese mining sector. Nicknamed “Obama's Law” by the Congolese, section 1502 has created a de facto ban on Congolese mineral exports, put anywhere from tens of thousands up to 2 million Congolese miners out of work in the eastern Congo, and, despite ending most of the trade in Congolese conflict minerals, done little to improve the security situation or the daily lives of most Congolese. In this report, Laura Seay traces the development of section 1502 with respect to the pursuit of a conflict minerals-based strategy by U.S. advocates, examines the effects of the legislation, and recommends new courses of action to move forward in a way that both promotes accountability and transparency and allows Congolese artisanal miners to earn a living.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

1072. Mozambique Synthesis Analysis: Between Pockets of Efficiency and Elite Capture

Author:
Lars Buur, Obede Baloi, and Carlota Mondlane Tembe
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the General Peace Accord (GPA) in 1992 ending the civil war and the first democratic elections in 1994, Mozambique has experienced a peaceful transition towards democracy, underpinned by successive rounds of local and national elections, which have been, if not totally free, then at least sufficiently free to be accepted by the international community. This, combined with sustained economic growth (Sousa and Sulemane 2007), a substantial decline in people living below the poverty line, relatively high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) and very high and continued levels of foreign donor support has made Mozambique 'a success story' for the international donor community where few such stories seem available (Renzio and Hanlon 2006: 3). This has triggered continuous and generous levels of assistance and made Mozambique the ultimate 'donor darling'. But with the opening up of the rich natural resource endowment in energy, gas, oil and minerals to exploitation after Frelimo's election victory in 2009, the country stands at a critical juncture, with the potential to become donor-independent within the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Political Economy, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

1073. What do the COMESA Customs Union and COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area mean for Zambia’s import trade and trade tax revenue?

Author:
Caesar Cheelo, Njeleka Malata, and Joseph Tembo
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia has participated actively in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional integration programmes. Within SADC it is now reportedly a full participant in the SADC Free Trade Area (FTA), granting duty-free and quota-free access to goods originating from the SADC region. It is also a founding participant in the COMESA FTA and is now looking ahead to participate in the establishment of the COMESA Customs Union. The country is also committed to participate in the recently announced Tripartite FTA, which will establish a free trade area and then eventually a customs union, consolidating the regional economic communities of COMESA, SADC, and the East African Community (EAC). Quite often the actual or potential short-term or transitional impacts of the tariff reforms associated with regional integration are not well known. This is the case with respect to Zambia’s commitments to further integration under the forthcoming COMESA Customs Union and Tripartite FTA. ZIPAR therefore undertook a study to assess the potential effects for Zambia of the forthcoming trade reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. The study made two starting-point observations: on the one hand, the Tripartite FTA is expected to consolidate the internal markets of the three regional economic communities and facilitate duty- and quota-free trade within the common market, subject to rules of origin. This means the Tripartite FTA will define Zambia’s internal trade policy position with other member states. On the other hand, the COMESA Customs Union, with its Common Tariff Nomenclature, Common External Tariff structure and common Customs Management Regulations, will define Zambia and other COMESA Member States’ common external trade policy position. Given Zambia’s ratification of these trade arrangements, it is important for policy-makers to understand the significance of the trade policy reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. This paper therefore seeks to determine the implications for Zambia of the trade reforms that the country will undertake. It applies the following methods of ex-ante analysis: (1) Import trade and tariff profiling using simple descriptive statistical analysis of trade for the period 2000-2010 and of tariff structures in 2010; (2) Analysis of required trade policy reforms; and (3) Analysis of revenue implications and economic effects using the World Bank’s Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool (TRIST). Trade and customs data as well as other data were obtained from authentic national and international sources including the Zambia Revenue Authority, COMESA Secretariat, Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance, World Trade Organisation and World Bank, among others. The paper’s reference period is 2010.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Economy, Tax Systems, Free Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

1074. Resource mobilisation and fundraising in basic schools: A case study of Copperbelt and North-Western province

Author:
Malunga Syacumpi
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Like many other countries, Zambia removed a major barrier to access to primary education when it abolished user fees for Grades 1–7 in 2002. The resulting fall in basic schools’ income, however, has not been relieved by adequate government resources trickling down through the complex school funding system. In an attempt to address their funding problems, some schools have adopted fundraising ventures as a way of supplementing government resources. The successes and practicability of implementation of such ventures remain to be seen. There is a lack of information about the adequacy of such measures and no institutional framework to guide their implementation. This study explores the range of resource mobilisation and fundraising activities adopted by basic schools. It looks into how basic schools are raising funds and how these funds are being utilised based on a sample of 30 basic schools (15 each from Copperbelt and North-Western provinces). The research was conducted through questionnaires with head teachers and school accountants/bursars as well as interviews conducted at the provincial and district level.
Topic:
Development, Education, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

1075. Chinese in Georgia

Author:
Jiayi Zhou
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
In the two decades after independence, Georgia's open economy and lax immigration policies have engendered, for the first time, immigration from far outside of the region. On the streets of Tbilisi, the most conspicuous of these migrants are from India, China, and the countries of Africa. Of those from India, a substantial number are students of medicine, or enrolled in other professional courses. Africans in Georgia are mostly driven by work opportunity with a few students in higher education institutions. Chinese immigrants, on the other hand, are almost entirely driven by economic opportunities. A modern Chinese presence in Georgia began in the 1990s with the beginning of Chinese state-owned investment ventures in the region, as well as a burgeoning restaurant scene. In 2000s, this expanded to encompass a trickle and then an influx of Chinese migrant shop owners and market vendors. The third wave of migration occurred in 2010 as a result of contract construction workers. As of today, there are around 1,000 Chinese now divided into five groups: specialists, businessmen, shopkeepers, contract workers, and those in the restaurant and catering sector. This paper will focus on the history of Chinese migrants in Georgia, driving causes, their level of integration (or lack thereof), vulnerabilities, and their status in Georgian society. It will also cover increasingly large-scale economic ventures in the country, the status of Chinese as a foreign language in Georgia, and the role of the PRC Embassy in the Chinese community.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Immigration, and Minorities
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and Georgia

1076. Issues of Minority Rights in the Ethiopian Federation

Author:
Haileyesus Taye Chekole
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
Ethiopia is an ancient country with a rich diversity of peoples and cultures. Paleontological studies identify Ethiopia as one of the cradles of humankind. ―Dinknesh or ―Lucy, one of the earliest and most complete hominoids discovered through archaeological excavations, dates back to 3.5 million years (Milkias, 2010). Ethiopia‟s geographical and historical factors have had a great influence on the distribution of its peoples and languages. Ethiopia embraces a complex variety of nations, nationalities and peoples, and linguistic groups. Altogether, its peoples speak more than 80 different languages, comprising 12 Semitic, 22 Cushitic, 18 Omotic and 18 Nilo-Saharan languages (Central Statistic Report, 2007). This makes Ethiopia a mosaic of languages and culture. The country has always maintained its independence, even during the colonial era in Africa. Ethiopia‟s membership in multilateral governmental organizations started as a member of the defunct League of Nations. Ethiopia was one of the founding members of the United Nations and has been playing an active role in African affairs. It specifically played a pioneering role in the formation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU). In fact, the capital city, Addis Ababa, has been a seat for the OAU since its establishment and continues serving as the seat for the African Union (AU) today.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, and Minorities
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Ethiopia

1077. Middle East Security Report : Syria's Armed Opposition

Author:
Joseph Holliday
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The rebels will have to rely on external lines of supply to replenish their arms and ammunition if they are to continue eroding the regime's control. The emergence of al-Qaeda-linked terrorist cells working against the regime poses risks to the United States and a challenge to those calling for material support of the armed opposition. As the militias continue to face overwhelming regime firepower the likelihood of their radicalization may increase. Moreover, the indigenous rebels may turn to al-Qaeda for high-end weaponry and spectacular tactics as the regime's escalation leaves the rebels with no proportionate response, as occurred in Iraq in 2005-2006. Developing relations with armed opposition leaders and recognizing specific rebel organizations may help to deter this dangerous trend. It is imperative that the United States distinguish between the expatriate political opposition and the armed opposition against the Assad regime on the ground in Syria. American objectives in Syria are to hasten the fall of the Assad regime; to contain the regional spillover generated by the ongoing conflict; and to gain influence over the state and armed forces that emerge in Assad's wake. Therefore, the United States must consider developing relations with critical elements of Syria's armed opposition movement in order to achieve shared objectives, and to manage the consequences should the Assad regime fall or the conflict protract.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, United States, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Germany, and Syria

1078. Engaging African diasporas for peace: cornerstones for an emerging EU agenda

Author:
Judith Vorrath
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Over the last decade, researchers and policy-makers have paid increasing attention to diasporas. They have focused on diasporas not merely as a challenge, but as a source of largely untapped potential. Their transnational nature and peculiar position as non-state actors linking host and home countries has been identified as an important basis for engagement. Diaspora groups from sub-Saharan Africa in Europe, which according to a 2008 Council of Europe parliamentary report on immigration are roughly estimated to comprise between 3.5 and 8 million people, are not only a relevant force, but often come from homelands that have experienced or are still facing armed conflict. Against this background, this Occasional Paper addresses the question of what contribution diaspora communities can make to promoting peace in their homelands and how the European Union can engage with African diasporas in the field of peace and security.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Migration, Diaspora, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1079. Burundi: Bye-bye Arusha?

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En dépit du fonctionnement régulier des institutions et du discours officiel vantant les progrès en matière de déve- loppement et de sécurité, le Burundi est en train de perdre les acquis de l'accord d'Arusha. En raison de l'impasse électorale de 2010, le système de partage du pouvoir conçu à Arusha a fait place à un monopartisme de fait qui se traduit par la fin du dialogu e entre l'opposition et le gouvernement, une dérive autorita ire et le retour de la vio- lence politique. Le respect de la minorité politique et de la règle de droit, essentiel à la démocratie, semble ignoré depuis 2010. Afin de pérenniser les acquis du processus de paix et la stabilité du pays, la classe politique burundaise doit renouer avec le dialogue, ga rantir le pluralisme poli- tique en vue des échéances électorales de 2015 et veiller à un processus de justice trans itionnelle consensuel. En rai- son de leur implication dans le processus de paix, l'importance de leur aide au Burundi et l'absence de bailleurs alternatifs, les partenaires internationaux actuels doivent mettre ces trois questions au centre de leur dialogue avec le gouvernement.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

1080. The Paranoid Neighbor: Algeria and the Conflict in Mali

Author:
Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the crisis in Mali threatens to grow into a full-fledged regional security and humanitarian nightmare, nervous neighboring countries are looking to Algeria to lead a conflict management effort. In many ways Algeria has always wanted recognition as a regional leader. Yet, Algiers worries about being dragged into a Saharan quagmire and seems reluctant or unable to maintain stability in its backyard. Both the country's neighbors and the West are questioning Algeria's decision not to take a more active role in Mali.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Humanitarian Aid, and Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, and Mali

1081. South Korea's Counterpiracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden

Author:
Terence Roehrig
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In March 2009, the South Korean National Assembly approved the first foreign deployment of South Korea's naval forces to join the U.S.-led Combined Task Force (CTF-151). The purpose of CTF-151 is to conduct antipiracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and off Somalia's east coast by the Horn of Africa. South Korea joined the navies of twentyfour other countries that participate in the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) through one of three combined task forces, CTF-150, CTF-151, and CTF-152, to help ensure maritime security in this region. The CMF is an international effort to conduct maritime security operations in the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean.
Topic:
Security, Maritime Commerce, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, Israel, and South Korea

1082. Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010, September 2012

Author:
Matthias Basedau and Carlo Koos
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We employ a two‐tier spatiotemporal analysis to investigate whether uranium operations cause armed conflict in Africa. The macrolevel analysis suggests that – compared to the baseline conflict risk – uranium ventures increase the risk of intrastate conflict by 10 percent. However, we find ethnic exclusion to be a much better predictor of armed conflict than uranium. The microlevel analysis reveals that uranium‐spurred conflicts are spatiotemporally feasible in four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Namibia, Niger and South Africa. We find strong evidence in the case of Niger, and partial evidence in the case of the DRC. Namibia and South Africa do not yield substantial evidence of uranium‐ induced conflicts. We conclude that uranium may theoretically be a conflictinducing resource, but to the present day empirical evidence has been sparse as most countries are still in the exploration phase. Considering that the coming years will see 25 African countries transition from uranium explorers into producers, we strongly suggest that our analysis be revisited in the coming years.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa

1083. Political Budget Cycles and Intergovernmental Transfers in a Dominant Party Framework: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Verena Kroth
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper tests the theory of context-conditional political budget cycles in South Africa's dominant party framework and demonstrates that the central government has both an incentive and the ability to implement PBCs on the subnational level. Using a unique panel dataset comprising South Africa's nine provinces over the period 1995–2010 generates two main results: First, provinces where the national ruling party faces greater electoral competition receive higher per capita transfers in the year before an election. Second, this increase is driven by the conditional grant, which is the nonformula-based component of total the intergovernmental transfer. The ability to implement political budget cycles is successfully constrained when it comes to the formula-based equitable share component of the total transfer for which no evidence of electorally-induced funding is found. Overall, the results suggest that even in a dominant party framework, political competition can function as an incentive to implement political budget cycles.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1084. The Imperial Peace in Colonial Africa and Africa's Underdevelopment

Author:
Robert H. Bates
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When praised at all, imperialism is most often commended for the peace it bestowed. By demobilizing armies, deposing marauding princes and subduing war-like states, European powers fashioned a half-century of political order. The question nonetheless arises: Should they be lauded for that? In this chapter, I view Africa's history through the lens of comparative history and argue that the imperial peace may have retarded Africa's development.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Imperialism, Post Colonialism, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1085. Towards a Stronger Africa-EU Cooperation on Peace and Security: The Role of African Regional Organizations and Civil Society

Author:
Nicoletta Pirozzi, Valérie Vicky Miranda, and Kai Schäfer
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Joint Africa-European Union Strategy, adopted at the Lisbon Summit in December 2007, was intended to overcome an unequal partnership between the African and European continents by establishing a framework of cooperation based on shared values and common objectives. However, in the first implementation phase it became clear that these conditions were far from being fully realized. In particular, the Partnership on Peace and Security has shown a tendency to institutionalize dialogue and crystallize practices of cooperation along the well-established Brussels-Addis Ababa axis, while efforts to engage with other crucial actors remain to some extent limited. This paper focuses on the sub-optimal involvement of two crucial stakeholders, namely African regional organizations and civil society actors. It presents the main findings and policy recommendations of a study concluded by IAI in September 2012, with the support of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and the European Parliament.
Topic:
Civil Society and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1086. Transformations on Whose Terms? Understanding the New EU-ACP Trade Relations from the Outside In

Author:
Ulrike Lorenz
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
In the past ten years, the long-standing trade relations between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries have experienced radical transformations. The negotiations of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and seven regional groupings formed by the ACP countries have led to the EU being maneuvered into an unexpectedly weak position. For the first time, European negotiators had to substantially leave their pre-agreed negotiation path and positions due to the immense pressure from ACP countries, regional organizations, and non-state actors – and still have not been able to finalize negotiations that had initially been expected to only take five years until the end of 2007.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Caribbean

1087. Côte d'Ivoire : faire baisser la pression

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En Côte d'Ivoire, la sortie de crise est menacée par une situation sécuritaire volatile et des blocages politiques. Le dernier trimestre a été marqué par une série d'attaques meurtrières qui ont visé un commissariat de police, l'un des principaux camps militaires du pays, plusieurs posi- tions de l'armée et une centrale électrique. Ces incidents ont été précédés par d'autres violences à l'Ouest. Même si ces évènements ne constituent pas une menace immé- diate pour la stabilité, ils indiquent que, pour certains, la guerre n'est pas terminée. Lenteur de la réforme du sec- teur de la sécurité, gel du dialogue politique, fragilité de la coalition au pouvoir, ret our de la violence verbale, révélation de projets de coup d'Etat, doutes sur la réalité d'une volonté de réconciliation nationale, sont autant de signes préoccupants. Le présid ent Alassane Ouattara et son nouveau gouvernement formé le 22 novembre ne doivent pas compter exclusivement sur la relance économique et le verrouillage sécuritaire pour consolider la paix. La com- munauté internationale ne do it pas détourner son regard d'un pays dont la stabilisation est d'autant plus cruciale pour l'Afrique de l'Ouest que le Mali voisin a basculé dans une crise profonde et durable.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

1088. Land Tenure and Economic Activities in Uganda: a Literature Review

Author:
Michael Kidoido, Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, Rachel Spichiger, and Sarah Alobo
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Land is an important asset for people's livelihoods and for economic development in Uganda, where the majority of people live in rural areas. This working paper reviews the literature on Uganda's tenure systems and their relationship with economic activities, focusing primarily on rural agricultural land. The review illustrates that these relationships are complex and context-dependent.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Poverty, and Law
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

1089. Sudan: Major Reform or More War

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The “Sudan Problem” has not gone away with the South's secession. Chronic conflict, driven by concentration of power and resources in the centre, continues to plague the country. The solution is a more inclusive government that addresses at least some of the peripheries' grievances, but pledges to transform governance remain unfulfilled. A key hurdle – though not the only one – is President Bashir, who has further concentrated authority in a small circle of trusted officials and is unwilling to step aside. Many hope for regime change via coup but have not considered the dangers. The goal should be managed transition to a government that includes, but is not dominated by his National Congress Party (NCP). He might be willing to go along if he concludes greater disorder or even a coup is growing more likely, but only if the right incentives are in place. The international community should contribute to these provided a credible and inclusive transitional government, a meaningful national dialogue on a new constitution and a roadmap for permanent change in how Sudan is governed are first put firmly in train.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

1090. Hoping to Win, Expected to Lose: Theory and Lessons on Microenterprise Development

Author:
Dean Karlan, Ryan Knight, and Christopher Udry
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We show how financial and managerial constraints impede experimentation and thus limit learning about the profitability of investments. Imperfect information about one's own type, but willingness to experiment to learn one's type, leads to short-run negative expected returns to investments, with some outliers succeeding. We find in an experiment that entrepreneurs invest randomized grants of cash and adopt advice from randomized grants of consulting services, but both lead to lower profits on average. In the long run, they revert back to their prior scale of operations. In a meta-analysis, results from 19 other experiments find mixed support for this theory.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

1091. UN Peacekeeping: The Next Five Years

Author:
Richard Gowan and Megan Gleason
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper, commissioned by the Permanent Mission of Denmark to the United Nations, analyzes current trends in United Nations peacekeeping and makes predictions about the development of UN operations over the next five years (to 2017). It covers (i) the changing global context for UN operations and efforts to enhance the organization's performance over the last five years; (ii) trends in troop and police contributions; (iii) projections about potential demand for UN forces in various regions, especially the Middle East and Africa, in the next five years and (iv) suggestions about the types of contributions European countries such as Denmark can make to reinforce UN missions in this period.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

1092. Resources, risk and resilience: scarcity and climate change in Ethiopia

Author:
Alex Evans
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Ethiopia's resource scarcity context presents a daunting challenge, but also a significant opportunity. The country's current scarcity context includes: Low agricultural yields and farm sizes: Even if farm productivity were to increase by a factor of three, the average farm would still not produce enough food for a family of five. With 83% of Ethiopia's people directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, the country has a major food security challenge; 7.5 million people depend on food safety nets. Major exposure to drought: Ethiopia has erratic rainfall, and acutely limited water storage capacity: the country has only 43m3 of reservoir storage per person, compared to 750m3 in South Africa and 6,150m3 in North America. Levels of irrigation are also low: the World Bank estimates that only 5% of irrigable land in Ethiopia is actually irrigated. Limited access to energy: Ethiopia's total primary energy supply is less than 60% of the African average, and only just over a fifth of the global average. The country depends on waste and biomass for 90 of its energy needs – leading to consequences including deforestation, and soil degradation as a result of biomass not being returned to the soil. High dependence on imported oil and food: Ethiopia currently imports all of its liquid fuels and a significant proportion of its food. This creates major exposure to global commodity price volatility, with the attendant risk of balance of payments problems, inflation and outright supply interruptions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and Ethiopia

1093. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (I): The Jos Crisis

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 2001, violence has erupted in Jos city, capital of Plateau state, in Nigeria's Middle Belt region. The ostensible dispute is over the “rights” of the indigene Berom/ Anaguta/Afizere (BAA) group and the rival claims of the Hausa-Fulani settlers to land, power and resources. Indigene- settler conflicts are not new to Nigeria, but the country is currently experiencing widespread intercommunal strife, which particularly affects the Middle Belt. The Jos crisis is the result of failure to amend the constitution to privilege broad-based citizenship over exclusive indigene status and ensure that residency rather than indigeneity determines citizens' rights. Constitutional change is an important step to defuse indigene-settler rivalries that continue to undermine security. It must be accompanied by immediate steps to identify and prosecute perpetrators of violence, in Jos and other parts of the country. Elites at local, state and federal level must also consistently implement policies aimed at reducing the dangerous link between ethnic belonging and access to resources, power and security if intercommunal violence is to end.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Natural Resources, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1094. Le golfe de Guinée : la nouvelle zone à haut risque

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En l'espace d'une décennie, le golfe de Guinée est devenu l'une des zones mar itimes les plus dangereuses du monde. L'insécurité maritime est un véritable problème régional qui menace, à court terme, le commerce et, à long terme, la stabilité des pays riverains en compromettant le déve- loppement de cette zone éc onomique stratégique. Initia- lement pris au dépourvu, les Etats de la région ont pris conscience du problème et un sommet international sur ce sujet doit être prochainement organisé. Afin d'éviter que, comme sur les côtes est-africaines, cette criminalité trans- nationale ne prenne une ampleur déstabilisatrice, les gou- vernements concernés doivent mettre fin au vide sécuritaire et apporter une réponse collective à ce danger. Grâce à une coopération dynamique en tre la Communauté écono- mique des Etats d'Afrique centrale (CEEAC) et la Commu- nauté économique des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (Ce- deao), les pays du golfe de Guinée doivent devenir les premiers acteurs de leur sécurité et mettre en œuvre une nouvelle approche fondée sur l'amélioration de leur sécuri- té maritime mais aussi de leur gouvernance économique.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Crime, Development, International Trade and Finance, Maritime Commerce, Fragile/Failed State, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Africa

1095. Subjective Risk and Participation in Micro Life Insurance in Ghana

Author:
Lena Giesbert
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the determinants of households' decisions to purchase micro life insurance, the most common but least investigated type of microinsurance. It uses household survey data collected in southern Ghana in 2009. Insurance participation and extent of coverage are examined against a standard benchmark model, which argues that life insurance uptake increases with risk aversion, the probability of risk, initial wealth, and the “intensity for bequests.” Many of these predictions indeed hold in the case of micro life insurance. However, the results of probit and tobit models show that nonstandard factors also explain the participation decision. Unlike the case with other available types of insurance, there is a significant negative association between households' subjective idiosyncratic risk perception and the uptake of micro life insurance. Additionally, households' micro life insurance participation is strongly related to their relationships with formal financial services providers and their membership in social networks. These findings suggest that poorer households view microinsurance as a risky option.
Topic:
Health, Poverty, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

1096. Who rules Nigeria?

Author:
Inge Amundsen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Nigeria has experienced military coups, a civil war and very poor economic development, and its population is more impoverished today than at independence. Behind this lies the “oil curse”. The ruling elite has captured the rents generated from oil for personal enrichment and power purposes. Nigeria's elite formation has three distinct characteristics. It is based on a fusion of elites, with the military dominating. It is consolidated through power diversification (with the conversion of political power into economic power as the most important), and it is enriched through economic extraction (where the usurpation of the country's oil wealth is pivotal).
Topic:
Civil War, Corruption, Democratization, Oil, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1097. Is a military intervention in Mali unavoidable?

Author:
Roland Marchal
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
No clear settlement of the crisis in Mali seems possible in the short term, despite a UN Security Council resolution on October 12th paving the way for a military intervention by ECOWAS countries. The crisis is fed by various dynamics that need to be reconciled for peace to prevail. Firstly, the transition in Bamako is going nowhere, and further divisions in the government and the resurgence of the coup makers undermine the fragile progress witnessed in July. Unable to agree on a solution in Bamako, most political actors have developed a militaristic approach to any solution for the north. Secondly, Islamist and jihadist movements were able to gain control of northern Mali (two-thirds of the country) in a few months and have enforced new rules inspired by their understanding of Islam. Although protests erupted in several cities, the militants deepened their control over the region and its local and transnational economy and may have a constituency among the population. ECOWAS, supported by France, is willing to intervene militarily, but the fragmentation of the Malian army is a key weakness. Moreover, ECOWAS has not spelled out the actual aims of its intervention: mere territorial gains without addressing local and national grievances may mean the return of the status quo ante, which would be unacceptable to most people in northern Mali. As usual, the long-term political dimensions of the ECOWAS intervention are dismissed in favour of an immediate military victory that would be very fragile as a result.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, France, and Northern Mali

1098. The State of Public Health in South Sudan

Author:
Richard Downie
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Less than 18 months into its life as an independent nation, South Sudan is facing a desperate struggle for survival. Because the terms of its separation from Sudan were not decided before independence, negotiations have dragged on over issues including borders, security arrangements, and the qualifications for citizenship, diverting attention from the urgent task of development. Most damagingly, the two nations have failed to cooperate on oil production, the mainstay of their economies. Anger over the high price Sudan was demanding to use its pipeline prompted the government of the Republic of South Sudan (GRSS) to shut off oil production entirely in January 2012. Although a compromise was reached in August, implementation stalled until a broader agreement was signed by the two countries in late September. The implications for health development in South Sudan are stark. Even before the oil shutdown, international donors had paid for and delivered most health services. However, talks had been ongoing to transfer to a more sustainable system in which the GRSS assumed more responsibility for the health needs of its citizens. Donors spoke of the importance of moving away from a top-down system centered on emergency relief and primary health care delivery, mainly administered by international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Instead, the objective was to move to a new phase focused on developing health systems that would increasingly be managed by South Sudanese themselves. These plans were put on hold by the oil shutdown and the calamitous economic crisis it triggered. Donors feel that South Sudan has regressed in the period since independence, and they apportion a lot of the blame for the dire situation on the government of South Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Health, Oil, Infectious Diseases, Financial Crisis, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

1099. Emerging Security Challenges: A Glue for NATO and Partners?

Author:
Ioanna-Nikoletta Zyga
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
When the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) formed as a defensive military alliance more than six decades ago, one of its fundamental tasks was to deter Soviet aggression against Western Europe. Since the end of the Cold War, the Allies have come to understand that their security depends on their ability to face threats emerging from well beyond the Euro-Atlantic space. NATO has thus broadened its focus from collective defense to security management beyond its borders: its numerous operations in this capacity have included peace support, peacekeeping, disaster relief and counter-piracy missions. These operations have taken place not only in NATO's traditional areas of intervention such as the Balkans, but also as far afield as the Gulf of Aden, the Horn of Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa, Europe, and North Atlantic

1100. The Road to Safety: Strengthening Protection for LGBTI Refugees in Uganda and Kenya

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) refugees are often among the most vulnerable and isolated of refugees. This is especially true in places where they are at heightened risk due to violent attacks, discrimination, and laws that criminalize same-sex relations. In addition, in many countries around the world, LGBTI refugees are targets of bias-motivated attacks and sexual and gender-based violence. Around seventy-six countries criminalize consensual same-sex conduct.
Topic:
Gender Issues and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa