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1021. Can one retell a Mozambican reform story through Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation?

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Many public sector reforms in developing countries fail to make governments more functional. This is typically because reforms introduce new solutions that do not fit the contexts in which they are being placed. This situation reflects what has recently been called the 'capability trap' in development—which results in many interventions producing new forms that are not functional in states across the globe. The work on capability traps suggests that reforms can yield more functional influence in even the most complex states, however; if reformers adopt non-traditional approaches to doing reform. In particular, the work suggests that reforms will tend to be more contextually fitted if: (i) They are driven by problems that agents in the context care about; and (ii) They are introduced iteratively—through a stepwise process where ideas are tried and lessons are learned and used to adapt (or fit) ideas to context. The capability traps work embeds these ideas into an approach to doing reform called Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA). This approach has deep roots in various literatures but many observers still ask how PDIA-type reforms could work to foster successful reform in complex hierarchical developing country governments and whether these approaches really help foster reforms that better fit such complex contexts. This paper responds to such question by describing an action research study where PDIA is being used to retell a story of reform that has to date been limited. The action research study is in Mozambique’s judicial sector and will examine whether and how a problem driven iterative approach can (i) flush out the contextual factors that often limit reform success, (ii) provide a viable route to find and fit reforms that actually foster greater functionality, and (iii) promote the authority needed to ensure change is implemented and institutionalized.
Topic:
Government, Developing World, Reform, and Public Sector
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

1022. How should Uganda grow?

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Brad Cunningham, John Matovu, Rosie Osire, and Kelly Wyett
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
ncome per capita in Uganda has doubled in the last 20 years. This remarkable performance has been buoyed by significant aid flows and large external imbalances. Economic growth has been concentrated in non-tradable activities leading to growing external imbalances and a growing gap between rural and urban incomes. Future growth will depend on achieving sufficient export dynamism. In addition, growth faces a number of other challenges: low urbanization rate, rapid rural population growth and high dependency ratios. However, both the dependency ratio and fertility rates have begun to decline recently. Rural areas are also severely overcrowded with low-productivity subsistence agriculture as a pervasive form of production. Commercial agriculture has great possibilities to increase output, but as the sector improves its access to capital, inputs and technology it will shed jobs rather than create them. These challenges combined tell us that future growth in Uganda will require a rapid rate of export growth and economic diversification. The country faces the prospect of an oil boom of uncertain size and timing. It could represent an important stepping stone to achieve external sustainability, expanded income and infrastructure and a greater internal market. However, as with all oil booms, the challenges include avoiding the Dutch disease, managing the inevitable volatility in oil incomes and avoiding inefficient specialization in oil. Policies that set targets for the non-oil deficit could help manage some of these effects, but a conscious strategy to diversify would still be needed. The best strategy is therefore to use the additional oil revenue and accompanying investments to promote a diversification strategy that is sustainable. To determine how to encourage such a transformation, we draw on a new line of research that demonstrates how development seldom implies producing more of the same. Instead, as countries grow, they tend to move into new industries, while they also increase productivity in existing sectors. In this report, we analyze what those new industries might be for Uganda. To do so, we first look to those products which balance the desire to increase the diversification and complexity of production, while not over-stretching existing capabilities. These include mostly agricultural inputs, such as agrochemicals and food processing. In addition, Uganda should concurrently develop more complex industries, such as construction materials, that are reasonably within reach of current capabilities and will be in great demand in the context of an oil boom. Here, the fact that Uganda is landlocked and faces high import costs will provide natural protection to the expanding demand in Uganda and neighboring countries. We conclude with a discussion of the government policies that will support Uganda in developing new tradable industries.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

1023. Capital Flight: Measurement and Drivers

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, James K. Boyce, and Ameth Saloum Ndiaye
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper describes the nature of capital flight, the methodologies used to measure it, and its drivers. The paper presents updated estimates of the magnitude of capital flight from 39 African countries for which adequate data are available for the period 1970-2010. It gives a global context of the problem of capital flight from Africa by providing comparative indicators on capital flight and related flows for other developing regions. The paper undertakes a detailed econometric analysis of the drivers of capital flight from African countries. It explores empirically the role of domestic and external factors in driving capital flight, including structural factors, the macroeconomic environment, governance, risk and returns to investment, capital account openness, and financial development. The first objective of the study is to contribute to the literature by providing the most comprehensive analysis of capital flight from Africa that takes into account economic as well as non-economic dimensions, and recognizes the importance of both the domestic and global contexts. The second objective is to contribute to the policy debate on capital flight both in Africa and globally.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Affairs, Global Markets, Global Political Economy, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

1024. Macroeconomic Impact of Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
John Weeks
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of capital flight on growth in thirty-one sub-Saharan African countries. It first considers the “macro fundamentals” hypothesis that capital flight would be lower in a country whose government adhered to “sound” macroeconomic policies. Analytical considerations fail to support this hypothesis. Second, it develops a growth estimating equation derived from the Harrod-Domar framework. The growth estimations support the conclusion that capital flight had a major impact on growth over the last three decades, 1980–2010. The negative impact was greatest for the petroleum-exporting countries and those affected by internal conflict, but it was also substantial for the other countries, with a few exceptions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Markets, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Cameroon, Global Focus, Gabon, and Republic of Congo

1025. Natural Resources and Capital Flight: A Role for Policy?

Author:
Lemma W. Senbet, Gregoire Rota-Graziosi, and Rabah Arezki
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between natural resources and capital flight in the form of tax avoidance from multinational corporations. In particular, it focuses on the spillover effects in terms of tax revenue mobilization and stock market development from the thin capitalization rule, a policy instrument aimed at limiting firm tax avoidance through setting limits on a firm’s foreign indebtedness. We exploit the plausibly exogenous within-country variations of data on oil discoveries for a panel of 117 countries during the period 1970–2012. We find evidence that oil discoveries significantly enhance both tax revenue mobilization and stock market development, but only when a thin capitalization rule is in place. We argue that these findings can be explained through the limiting role of a thin capitalization rule in multinational companies’ use of financial transactions among their affiliates or tax havens to transfer part of the profit. The thin capitalization rule may thus not only help limit the erosion of the domestic tax base but may also entice multinational corporations to resort to using and developing the domestic financial system.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Capital Flows, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa

1026. Nigeria-Poland Bilateral Trade: Identifying New Trade Opportunities

Author:
Idris Ademuyiwa and Chukwuka Onyekwena
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the bilateral trade relationship between Nigeria andPoland for the period 1995 to 2012. It uses the Decision Support Model (DSM)and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) to identifymarket for Nigerian exports in Poland.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economic Growth, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Eastern Europe, Poland, and Nigeria

1027. Explaining Sectoral and Spatial Variations in Growth Pro-poorness in Nigeria

Author:
Eberechukwu Uneze and Adedeji Adeniran
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the sectoral and spatial variations in growth pro-poorness in Nigeria, using the Shapley decomposition, the Ravallion-Huppi decomposition and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The results show that spatial and sectoral variations in pro-poor growth are a result of inequality and shift in population, human capital (spatial variation only) and structural factors (sectoral variation only). In addition, the paper finds that the zones and sectors with moderate growth have high poverty-growth elasticity, while zones and sectors with high growth have low poverty-growth elasticity. Thus, spatial and sectoral variations in growth pro-poorness result in weak response of poverty to growth in Nigeria.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Economic Growth, and Human Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

1028. Regional Integration In Africa: Some Recent Developments And Challenges

Author:
Idris Ademuyiwa and Eberechukwu Uneze
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
African countries have been left out of the recent benefits accruing from international trade. For example, they accounted for only 3.2 percent of world trade in 2013 compared to 5 percent in the mid-1960s. Regional integration can reverse this weak performance as it holds the promise for countries to gain from the resultant economies of scale and enhanced competitiveness. It will also help to expand the markets for foreign direct investment.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Regional Integration, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

1029. Public Transfers and Subsistence Producer Disincentives in Botswana

Author:
Tebogo B. Seleka and Khaufelo R. Lekobane
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper investigates the disincentive effects of public transfers on subsistence producers in Botswana. Comparative statics analyses indicate that public transfers would not affect farm production when profit and utility maximization decisions are recursive, with the profit maximization decision made first. However, when such decisions are interdependent, public transfers would lead to a reduction in farm output. Empirical results reveal that social pensions have impacted positively on cultivated area, but have had no impact on cereal yields and output. However, government food rations have impacted adversely on cultivated area, yields and output; they are a disincentive to crop production because they are relatively more sizable, consistent and certain. This, it is argued, is because food packages are directly substitutable for subsistence crop production. Therefore, public policy in Botswana should consider moving away from food to cash transfers to minimize such disincentive effects.
Topic:
Agriculture, Welfare, Safety Net, Work, and Public Transfers
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1030. Determinants of Household Welfare and Poverty in Botswana, 2002/03 and 2009/10

Author:
Khaufelo R. Lekobane and Tebogo B. Seleka
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper investigates household determinants of welfare and poverty in Botswana. Using the 2002/03 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) and the 2009/10 Botswana Core Welfare Indicator Survey (BCWIS), and employing regression analysis, we identify education level and employment status of the household head, as some of the key determinants of household welfare and poverty in Botswana. Moreover, we find that residing in rural areas increases the likelihood of being poor and negatively relates to welfare. Therefore, public policy must continue to emphasize on education and job creation amongst the strategies for poverty reduction in Botswana. Still, initiatives for rural development are also critical for poverty reduction.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Welfare, Consumption, and Income
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana