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901. Nigeria Post-Election Survey

Author:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
The mood in Nigeria is extremely upbeat following the peaceful conduct of the 2015 general elections, which led to the first democratic transfer of power in the country’s history. The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted pre- and post-election surveys in Nigeria focusing on perceptions of electoral integrity, opinions of election administration, and satisfaction with Nigerian democracy. Knowledge Perception InfographicFrom the December 2014 pre-election survey to the July 2015 post-election survey, satisfaction with democracy more than doubled with a 56 percent majority expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Nigeria, up by 30 percentage points in the pre-election phase (26%). Similarly, while only 23 percent of respondents in the pre-election phase believed Nigeria is a full democracy or a democracy with minor problems, 51 percent now believe Nigeria is a full democracy (18%) or a democracy with minor problems (33%), marking a net increase of 28 percentage points. Perception Integrity InfographicNearly three-quarters of Nigerians believe that both election integrity and the organization of the elections were better in the 2015 than in the previous polls in 2011. And while the survey indicated voters had to wait for several hours to get accredited and vote on Election Day, overall, 83 percent of voters assessed their voting experience to be good or very good. Indeed, confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) also registered a sharp increase by 16 percentage points, moving from 68 percent in pre-election levels to an overwhelming 85 percent after the elections. From December 2014 to July 2015, public awareness of the INEC and its Chairman at the time of the elections, Professor Attahiru Jega, increased by 16 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

902. Ethiopia – an agrarian economy in transition

Author:
Yared Seid, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, and Seid Nuru Ali
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth since 2005. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 10.5 per cent per annum for the period between 2004–05 and 2013–14. Public investment in key infrastructure and interventions in the agriculture sector have made important contributions to GDP growth. This growth has been accompanied by a process of capital deepening and signs of structural shift away from traditional and primary sectors towards secondary and tertiary sectors. Both processes of high growth and structural shift have important implications for poverty reduction and income distribution. One potential channel through which these influences work is the labour market. The indications of structural transformation that Ethiopia has shown in the last decade, including a continuous decline in the role of agriculture and rise in that of services, have led to reallocation of jobs and labour from low-productivity agriculture to more productive industrial—in particular the construction sub-sector—and service sectors. The rise in total factor productivity, overall increase in labour force participation rate, and fall in the labour share of the agriculture sector are indicative of the nature and extent of structural shift in the Ethiopian economy. A more durable shift of economic activities towards the manufacturing sector is expected to follow the rising trend in investment in the sector. This study explores the impact of the high economic growth and slow but unmistakable structural change on a number of economic outcomes working through the labour market. The growth opportunities and challenges of the Ethiopian economy are also discussed.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

903. The “Chief” and the New Baraza: Harnessing Social Media for Community Policing in Kenya

Author:
Duncan Mainye Omanga
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The exponential growth of social media use in Africa is not in doubt. The rapid rise in the use of mobile telephony, coupled with the spread of Internet-enabled gadgets, has made social media the latest catalyst of a grand transformation in Africa’s social and political complexion. This essay reveals how a local chief in Kenya has taken to using the microblogging website Twitter to radically transform the historical meeting place known as the baraza into a site of peacebuilding and community policing. In this study, the main aim is to show how information and communication technologies (ICTs) are used every day in Lanet Umoja and how they punctu- ate ordinary life to build, in a subtle yet effective way, a more cohesive soci- ety at a very local level. Without exaggerating the impact and place of ICTs in building peace in Africa, I intend to show how a local actor, using local social structures and infrastructures, has attempted, with varying degrees of suc- cess, to create predictable patterns—or routine forms—of consumption and use of ICTs that, in a sense, reproduce a communication “fabric” for fighting crime, responding to emergencies, and creating a virtual vigilante. His use of an ICT also acts as an experimental form of spiritual healing. As several other scholars have argued, caution is needed in making broad claims regarding the impact of ICTs in Africa and whether they are simply refashioning existing communication structures (Nyabuga 2008; Asiedu 2012; Berger 2012; Mudhai et al 2011). In pursuing this study, I had, therefore, to take note of three broad aspects of my research. One was the main actor (the chief), the second was his medium (Twitter; mobile telephony), and the third was his audience (residents of Lanet Umoja). Using Manuel Castells’s idea of the network and John Postill’s of concept actors or agents in a “networked community,” I attempt to show how these three components interact to reproduce the aforementioned “fabric.”
Topic:
Internet, Social Media, Police, and Community
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

904. Nigeria's 2015 Elections: Lessons and Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

Author:
Nkwachukwu Orji
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Despite widely held concerns about the likelihood of a destabilizing outcome, Nigeria suc- cessfully conducted its general elections on March 28 and April 11, 2015. The peaceful and positive result came to many as a surprise, considering the difficult political and secu- rity environment in which the elections were conducted. Five major obstacles had stood in the way of their going smoothly: the competing claims to the presidency by northern and southern politicians; a keenly contested campaign smeared by inflammatory messages; the grave security threat posed by the Boko Haram insurgency; allegations of politically motivated postponement of the elections; and gaps in electoral preparations. This briefing assesses Nigeria’s 2015 general elections, highlighting factors that enabled the country to avoid larger-scale violence and lessons that can be learned from its experience.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

905. Peace Operations in the Central African Republic: Some Challenges and Ways Forward

Author:
Jude Cocodia
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Despite their burgeoning reputation in peacekeeping, the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) are apparently finding the conflict in the Central African Repub- lic (CAR) difficult to resolve. The explanation involves, in part, the complex situation within the country, apathy on the part of national political elites, and a lack of local participation in peacemaking. Other factors are linked to poor field leadership, the composition of the peacekeeping contingent, and the nature of the mandate. The situation demands more analysis of peace operations and the political conditions under which such operations occur, with a view toward lessening human suffering, making peacekeepers accountable, and brightening the prospects for peace.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Central African Republic

906. The Prospects for Peace in Burundi: Some Policy Options

Author:
George Omondi
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The current crisis in Burundi stems from an insistence by incumbent president Pierre Nku- runziza that he is eligible to run in the coming elections to retain his office. Despite a consti- tutional court ruling in May 2015 that upheld the president’s position, opposition parties, civil society groups, religious leaders, and a section of the ruling party—the National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD)—disagree. Their view is that President Nkurunziza has served the two terms allowed him by the consti- tution and the Arusha agreement, which was signed in August 2000 to end the civil war that began in 1993. If he runs, it will be for a third term, which is unconstitutional. A recent wave of protests rallying around a movement against a third presidential term crystallized and intensified after the president made his plan official and the National Elections Commission (CENI) subsequently cleared him to run alongside other candidates. Violent repression of protestors by police and the intimidation of citizens by a militia group linked to the ruling party have led to scores of deaths and an increasing number of refugees fleeing the country. A humanitarian catastrophe looms, internally and in neighboring countries, especially the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, and Tanzania, which are receiving refugees from Burundi. Even worse, a return to civil war, with all the costs associated with such instability, could greatly undermine efforts to attain stability in the Great Lakes Region, where several conflicts are underway in countries around Burundi, notably the DRC, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Uganda. Worst of all, militant ethnic solidarities between pro- regime groups in Burundi and a predominantly Hutu militia opposed to the Rwanda govern- ment based in the DRC could further escalate conflict in the region.
Topic:
Social Movement, Legal Theory, Protests, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Burundi, and East Africa

907. Toward a Community of Practice: ECOWAS and Peace and Security Policy Communities in West Africa

Author:
Olawake Ismail
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was established in 1975 and has since evolved into a robust subregional group promoting economic integration across its members in several spheres, including commerce, transportation and telecommunications, energy and agriculture, monetary and financial policies, and peace and security.1 To fulfill objectives in these fields, ECOWAS established decision-making structures and policy development processes that include the Authority of Heads of State and Gov- ernment (AHSG); Council of Ministers (COM); a Community Court of Justice; an Executive Secretariat and Parliament; and other specialized commis- sions. The existence of these principal units notwithstanding, the ECOWAS decision-making and policy development process integrates other interven- ing variables that feed into the different channels of policy formulation and incidentally guide the trajectory along which policies emerge. This analysis focuses on ECOWAS’s nuanced (and complex) decision-making process as it relates to peace and security issues and the extent to which peace and security policy communities (including training and research institutions, academic and technical experts, and civil society activists) are engaged. The analysis is, unfortunately, limited by the absence of open source materials on the subject. While the literature on peace and security in West Africa—including the role of ECOWAS and reviews of its peace operations in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, and Côte d’Ivoire—is extensive,3 little or no research and few publications are extant on ECOWAS’s institu- tional setting and its process for developing peace and security policy. The little available information includes that contained in ECOWAS’s website and fleeting mention and reference in a few publications. This discussion relies instead on the author’s more than ten years of studying, observing, and engaging in ECOWAS activities (including participation in policy-related workshops, seminars, and conferences), knowledge of peace and security issues in West Africa, and interviews and informal discussions with serving and former ECOWAS staff and experts on West Africa’s peace and security.
Topic:
Security, Peace, Economic Cooperation, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

908. Trust in Political Institutions in Senegal: Why Did it Drop?

Author:
Ibrahima Sall
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The 2000 presidential elections were a turning point in the political trajectory of Senegal. After four decades of single-party and limited multi-party rule, the country’s first true political alternation handed power to Abdoulaye Wade and ushered Senegal into the ranks of stable democracies in Africa. President Wade won re-election, with a comfortable majority, in 2007. Just one year later, however, public opinion survey results showed that citizens’ trust in Senegal’s president, Parliament, and local government had dropped dramatically. While trust levels rebounded in later surveys, 2008 serves as a case study of key factors that can undermine public trust in political institutions – an element of crucial importance for the consolidation of democracy. Drawing on data from Afrobarometer surveys, this analysis examines whether trust in political institutions is related to government performance, the economy and lived poverty, perceived corruption, interpersonal trust, and exposure to the news media.
Topic:
Governance, Public Opinion, Leadership, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

909. Addressing Africa's Youth Employment and Food Security Crisis: The Role of African Agriculture in Job Creation

Author:
Olusegun Obasanjo
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
Despite the abundance of agricultural resources, sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s most food insecure region. HE Olusegun Obasanjo’s view is that there are many critical factors responsible for food insecurity in this region. They include undeveloped land tenure systems, high bank loan rates, inadequate availability of agricultural special banks, poor access to market information and prices, an unreliable market for farm produce and inadequate road network, transport and storage infrastructures for farm produce. There is also a lack of capacity for cooperative and value addition to farm produce and poor capacity for and access to agricultural insurance services. In addition, poor capacity for labor and labor costing are also part of the problem. Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that can employ millions of young people and reduce youth unemployment and enhance food security on the continent. The challenges facing adult farmers are huge but not as large as the challenges that young people encounter when trying to engage in agriculture as a profession. Nevertheless, there is hope, and opportunities abound for young people to be successful in agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Employment, Food Security, Youth, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa

910. The Effect of Exposure to Political Institutions and Economic Events on Demand for Democracy in Africa

Author:
Jakson Alves de Aquino
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In a democratic political regime, politicians and ordinary citizens must accept elections as the legitimate means of choosing who will govern. Losers must patiently wait until the next election to have an opportunity to elect a leader according to their preferences, and winners must restrain themselves from changing the rules to increase their power. Political systems are considered consolidated democracies when elections are free and fair, alternations of power happen according to the results of elections and are accepted by all main contenders, and the general public sees the system as the best way of organizing the political life. The establishment and survival of democracy depend on both politicians and ordinary citizens being committed to it. Understanding why people have (or do not have) a favourable view of democracy, that is, why they demand democracy, is important to an evaluation of the prospects for democratic stability. Usually, national-level variables have been added to multi-level regression models of survey data. In this paper, I contribute to the investigation of why people demand democracy by adding to the usual explanations new individual-level variables related to individual exposure to political institutions and economic conditions. My two main questions are: Does exposure to democracy increase the legitimacy of democracy? Is people’s demand for democracy influenced by the past economic performance of their countries? People live in a constant process of socialization, learning from their individual experiences and from their social environments. People exposed for a longer time to democratic institutions learn how the system works, accept its procedures, and as a result demand democracy more than less exposed people.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Economic Growth, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

911. Does Clientelism help Tanzanian MPs Establish Long-Term Electoral Support?

Author:
Machiko Tsubura
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Tanzanian Members of Parliament (MPs) and political analysts describe the primary roles of MPs with a variety of phrases: benefactors, providers, executors, social workers, saviours, multi-faceted donors, even “walking ATMs". Indeed, in Tanzania, where a majority of citizens are poor and the government lacks resources and capacity to provide sufficient social services, MPs provide various kinds of financial and material assistance to their constituents to support their lives and cultivate their electoral support. This type of exchange builds clientelistic relationships between MPs and voters, which is common in developing countries. In Tanzania, clientelism in electoral politics was highly restricted during the one-party socialist period between the mid-1960s and the 1980s but became prominent following the transition to multiparty democracy in the early 1990s. In 2000, it was enhanced in part by the legalisation of election incentives known as takrima (meaning “hospitality”). The legalisation of takrima raised public expectations that MPs wouldsupply tangible goods and contributed to the expansion of clientelistic relationships between MPs and voters. After having been used widely in the elections of 2000 and 2005, takrima was banned in 2006, and it has been an illegal practice since then. Against this unique background, this paper uses Afrobarometer survey results to examine how election incentives and electoral clientelism affected public views on MPs in Tanzania after the prohibition of takrima in 2006. A central question is whether clientelism helps MPs gain long-term electoral support. To address this question, I employed an innovative approach by adding data on levels of electoral competitiveness and MPs’ engagement with parliamentary discussions to Afrobarometer data sets to create original variables. A regression analysis of these data demonstrates that Tanzanians who had been offered election incentives in the elections of 2010 and had clientelistic views on the roles of MPs were less likely to approve of the performance of MPs. This suggests that clientelism is not necessarily a sustainable tool for MPs to establish long-term electoral support in Tanzania.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

912. Who’s asking? Interviewer Coethnicity Effects in African Survey Data

Author:
Claire L. Adida, Karen E. Ferree, Daniel Posner, and Amanda Lea Robinson
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Face-to-face interviews constitute a social interaction between interviewer and respondent, yet research employing African survey data typically fails to account for the effect of shared ethnicity on survey responses. We find that respondents give systematically different answers to coethnic and non-coethnic interviewers across surveys in 14 African countries, but with significant variation in the degree of bias across question types and countries, with the largest effects for explicitly ethnic questions and in countries where ethnicity is salient. In South Africa, we show further variation across interviewer-respondent dyad type: Coracial effects are larger than coethnic effects – a pattern consistent with the salience of racial legacies in South Africa – and differences in the direction, size, and significance of these effects concord with dyad-specific social desirability. Our findings have practical implications for consumers of African survey data and underscore the context dependence of the social interaction that constitutes the survey experience.
Topic:
Race, Public Opinion, Ethnicity, Interview, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

913. Political Risks Facing African Democracies: Evidence from Afrobarometer

Author:
Michael Bratton and E. Gyimah-Boadi
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Where are African countries headed politically? How resilient are Africa’s governments, regimes, and states? What are the characteristics of political risk? This paper is motivated by a desire to discover whether it is possible to identify early-warning indicators of risk to African political systems. We suggest that Afrobarometer survey data may be used to systematically track trends in mass political support – such as approval for incumbent governments, satisfaction with political regime performance, and the popular legitimacy of state institutions. Where trends in dimensions of popular disapproval turn sharply upward, we infer increasing political risk. The paper is anchored empirically with 15 years’ worth of public opinion data for selected African countries and offers interpretations of what these observations might mean. The analysis is both retrospective – connecting empirical trends to known episodes of instability in Mali, Kenya, and Zimbabwe – and prospective – raising red flags for countries like Ghana, among others, once considered stable but currently facing new political strains.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Public Opinion, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa

914. Deliberate Disengagement: How Education Decreases Political Participation in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes

Author:
Kevin Croke, Guy Grossman, Horacio Larreguy, and John Marshall
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
A large literature examining advanced and consolidating democracies suggests that education increases political participation. However, in electoral authoritarian regimes, educated voters may instead deliberately disengage. If education increases critical capacities, political awareness, and support for democracy, educated citizens may believe that participation is futile or legitimates autocrats. We test this argument in Zimbabwe – a paradigmatic electoral authoritarian regime – by exploiting cross-cohort variation in access to education following a major educational reform. We find that education decreases political participation, substantially reducing the likelihood that better-educated citizens vote, contact politicians, or attend community meetings. Consistent with deliberate disengagement, education’s negative effect on participation dissipated following 2008’s more competitive election, which (temporarily) initiated unprecedented power sharing.
Topic:
Education, Politics, Governance, Authoritarianism, Protests, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

915. On the Primacy of Weak Public Service Provision in rural Africa: Malians Redefine ‘State Breakdown’ Amidst 2012 Political Crisis

Author:
Jaimie Bleck and Kristin Michelitch
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In 2012, Mali faced a dual state breakdown disrupting nearly 20 years of democratization – a coup and a secessionist insurgency. This paper provides the perspectives of rural Malians living on the border of state- and rebel-controlled territory. Our main finding is that villagers defined “the crisis” as one of unmet need for public services and infrastructure. State breakdown matters less where the state is not present in the first place. Rather than the state, villagers were largely reliant on local traditional authorities. The salience of villagers’ concerns about public services and infrastructure, as well as general basic needs insecurity, are echoed in cross-national Afrobarometer data (2012-2013) on public service provision across rural and urban citizens. In nearly all sub-Saharan African countries, the urban-rural gap is large, absolute levels of rural provision are low, and countries are inconsistent in provision across indicators. We conclude by drawing implications of weak state public service and infrastructure provision for citizenship in rural areas.
Topic:
Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Social Services, Political Crisis, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

916. The Face of African Infrastructure: Service Availability and Citizens’ Demands

Author:
Benjamin Leo, Robert Morello, and Vijaya Ramachandran
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The need for infrastructure improvements is a top-tier economic, political, and social issue in nearly every African country. Although the academic and policy literature is extensive in terms of estimating the impact of infrastructure deficits on economic and social indicators, very few studies have examined citizen demands for infrastructure. In this paper, we draw upon survey data to move beyond top-line estimates of national infrastructure access rates toward a more nuanced understanding of service availability and citizen demands at the regional, national, and sub-national levels. We find a predictable pattern of infrastructure services across income levels – lower-income countries have fewer services. The survey data also allows us to observe the sequencing of infrastructure services. On the demand side, survey respondents are most concerned with jobs and income-related issues, as well as with the availability of infrastructure, specifically transportation and sanitation. These priorities transcend demographic factors, including gender and location (urban/rural).
Topic:
Infrastructure, Social Services, Public Service, and Social Spending
Political Geography:
Africa

917. Do men and women have different policy preferences, and if so, why?

Author:
Jessica Gottileb, Guy Grossman, and Amanda Lea Robinson
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Gender quotas to increase women’s representation are often motivated by the assumption that men and women have different policy preferences. In Africa – where gender quotas have been particularly widespread – we find that gender differences in preferences are quite small on average, but vary significantly across both policy domains and countries. We propose a theoretical framework for differentiating policy domains where preference divergence indicates increased gender parity from those where it signifies growing inequality. We then demonstrate that favourable gender gaps increase with female labour-force participation, while unfavourable gaps are more likely where women are most vulnerable. We show that these gender gaps in preferences are related to gender gaps in both political participation and representation.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Representation, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

918. Are South Africa’s Youth Really a ‘Ticking Time Momb’?

Author:
Robert Mattes and Samantha Richmond
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper reviews longitudinal survey data on South Africa’s political culture produced by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (1994-1998) and Afrobarometer (2000-2011) and finds that while there are real problems with democratic citizenship in South Africa, these problems are largely not peculiar to young people. Compared to other age cohorts, the youth (aged 18-25 years) of South Africa have the same conception of the role of citizen and are no more likely to endorse political violence or to hold negative views and intentions toward immigrants. They have slightly lower levels of cognitive engagement and cognitive sophistication than some other age cohorts and are less likely to engage in political processes. They also exhibit low levels of support for democracy – a problem they share with their elders.
Topic:
Immigration, Democracy, Citizenship, Youth, and Borders
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

919. Building Inclusive Smallholder Agriculture Finance

Author:
Simon Striegel
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Despite the increasing liberalization and penetration of rural financial markets in the global South, small-scale agricultural producers’ scarce access to formal financial services still constitutes a fundamental roadblock to improving financial inclusion and, thus, rural livelihoods. High transaction costs combined with covariant risks, a lack of financial literacy and the prevalence of moral hazard in agicultural lending impair the profitability and, hence, the availability of smallholder agricultural finance. Based on the theoretical concept of New Institutional Economics and underpinned by empirical evidence from small-scale coffee producers and financial institutions in Tanzania, this paper identifies major challenges of smallholder finance in the country and possible pathways through which financial inclusion can be elevated. The assessment of Tanzania’s smallholder-based coffee sector and financial system reveals that while organizational development among small-scale producers is clearly insufficient, inclusive rural financial systems, above all, depend on cohesive, well-governed and - managed producer organizations which qualify and act as intermediation points between small-scale producers and financial institutions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Finance, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

920. A Case Study of the Ivory Park Community Work Programme

Author:
Themba Masuku
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report is based on primary research which was conducted in Ivory Park (a township in Johannesburg) between June and September 2014. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the Community Work Programme (CWP), a public employment initiative, on violence prevention and social cohesion in the area.
Topic:
Employment, Social Cohesion, Community, Work, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

921. Regional Integration In Africa: Some Recent Developments And Challenges

Author:
Idris Ademuyiwa and Eberechukwu Uneze
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
African countries have been left out of the recent benefits accruing from international trade. For example, they accounted for only 3.2 percent of world trade in 2013 compared to 5 percent in the mid-1960s. Regional integration can reverse this weak performance as it holds the promise for countries to gain from the resultant economies of scale and enhanced competitiveness. It will also help to expand the markets for foreign direct investment.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Regional Integration, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

922. Second-Hand Motor Vehicle Imports in Zambia: Juicing from Lemons?

Author:
Thulani Banda and Zali Chikuba
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The sustained positive growth of the Zambian economy has resulted in many shifts in consumption patterns of Zambian households. One notable change is the increased consumption of consumer durables, particularly motor vehicles. Motor vehicle ownership has increased substantially since 2004. The increase in motor vehicle ownership owes in part to the highly unbridled access to second hand motor vehicle imports. The downside of the relaxed motor vehicle import regulations as observed in Zambia is the ageing of the motor vehicle fleet and deterioration in fleet safety. Second hand motor vehicles imported in the country may be fine, but they may also be unreliable – commonly referred to as lemons in economic literature – and costly to maintain thereby generating serious financial, road safety and environmental concerns. Considering that Zambia is one of the highest road fatality risk countries in Africa with 23.7 road traffic deaths per 100,000 people, the ageing fleet of motor vehicles only compounds the risk. Thus, more deliberate measures to ensure lives are safeguarded and consumers get value-for-money on motor vehicle imports should be devised and implemented urgently.
Topic:
Regulation, Economy, Imports, and Motor Vehicles
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

923. Uncovering the Unknown: An Analysis of Tax Evasion in Zambia 2014

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The Government of the Republic of Zambia, like many other governments in the world, significantly relies on tax revenue to finance both its key infrastructure development and social services. Zambia’s tax revenue declined from 30% of GDP in the 1970s to only an average of 13% of GDP in the 1990s mainly due to the decline in mining revenue and weak tax administration. To address this decline, significant tax reforms were undertaken that included the creation of the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA). Despite these reforms, tax revenue collection has to a large extent been unsatisfactory, recording average tax revenue-to-GDP of 17% in the last five years. This study investigates the extent and causes of tax evasion in Zambia including the review of the current legal and administrative measures used by the ZRA in addressing this problem. To investigate tax evasion in Zambia, several methodologies or approaches are used. These include carrying out a qualitative survey on a small sample of large taxpayers to find out their perceptions on the causes of tax evasion in Zambia. In investigating the extent of tax evasion, the tax gap with respect to Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) personal income tax of the self-employed and paid employees is estimated using data from the nationally representative 2010 Living Conditions and Monitoring Survey (LCMS). Further, a comparative assessment of Zambia‘s tax revenue performance relative to countries in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is undertaken. The study also reviews the current legal and administrative measures used to address tax evasion.
Topic:
Government, Tax Systems, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

924. Moving to the Adjacent Possible: Discovering Paths for Export Diversification in Rwanda

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Jasmina Chauvin
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
How can Rwanda, which currently has one of the lowest levels of income and exports per capita in the world, grow and diversify its economy in presence of significant constraints? We analyze Rwanda's historical growth and trade performance and find that Rwanda's high transportation costs and limited productive knowledge have held back greater export development and have resulted in excessive rural density. Three basic commodities – coffee, tea, and tin – made up more than 80 percent of the country's exports through its history and still drive the bulk of export growth today. Given Rwanda’s high population density and associated land scarcity, these traditional exports cannot create enough jobs for its growing population, or sustainably drive future growth. Rwanda needs new, scalable activities in urban areas. In this report, we identify a strategy for greater diversification of exports in Rwanda that circumvents the key constraints and is separately tailored for regional and global export destinations. Our results identify more than 100 tradable products that lie at Rwanda's knowledge frontier, are not intensive in Rwanda's scarce resources, and economize on transportation costs. Our analysis produces a vision of a more diversified Rwanda, which can be used as a guide for investment promotion decisions. We illustrate an approach that can be applied to other settings in order to identify opportunities for export diversification that take seriously local constraints and external market opportunities.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Commodities, Diversification, and Economic Complexity
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

925. Can one retell a Mozambican reform story through Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation?

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Many public sector reforms in developing countries fail to make governments more functional. This is typically because reforms introduce new solutions that do not fit the contexts in which they are being placed. This situation reflects what has recently been called the 'capability trap' in development—which results in many interventions producing new forms that are not functional in states across the globe. The work on capability traps suggests that reforms can yield more functional influence in even the most complex states, however; if reformers adopt non-traditional approaches to doing reform. In particular, the work suggests that reforms will tend to be more contextually fitted if: (i) They are driven by problems that agents in the context care about; and (ii) They are introduced iteratively—through a stepwise process where ideas are tried and lessons are learned and used to adapt (or fit) ideas to context. The capability traps work embeds these ideas into an approach to doing reform called Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA). This approach has deep roots in various literatures but many observers still ask how PDIA-type reforms could work to foster successful reform in complex hierarchical developing country governments and whether these approaches really help foster reforms that better fit such complex contexts. This paper responds to such question by describing an action research study where PDIA is being used to retell a story of reform that has to date been limited. The action research study is in Mozambique’s judicial sector and will examine whether and how a problem driven iterative approach can (i) flush out the contextual factors that often limit reform success, (ii) provide a viable route to find and fit reforms that actually foster greater functionality, and (iii) promote the authority needed to ensure change is implemented and institutionalized.
Topic:
Government, Developing World, Reform, and Public Sector
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

926. How should Uganda grow?

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Brad Cunningham, John Matovu, Rosie Osire, and Kelly Wyett
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
ncome per capita in Uganda has doubled in the last 20 years. This remarkable performance has been buoyed by significant aid flows and large external imbalances. Economic growth has been concentrated in non-tradable activities leading to growing external imbalances and a growing gap between rural and urban incomes. Future growth will depend on achieving sufficient export dynamism. In addition, growth faces a number of other challenges: low urbanization rate, rapid rural population growth and high dependency ratios. However, both the dependency ratio and fertility rates have begun to decline recently. Rural areas are also severely overcrowded with low-productivity subsistence agriculture as a pervasive form of production. Commercial agriculture has great possibilities to increase output, but as the sector improves its access to capital, inputs and technology it will shed jobs rather than create them. These challenges combined tell us that future growth in Uganda will require a rapid rate of export growth and economic diversification. The country faces the prospect of an oil boom of uncertain size and timing. It could represent an important stepping stone to achieve external sustainability, expanded income and infrastructure and a greater internal market. However, as with all oil booms, the challenges include avoiding the Dutch disease, managing the inevitable volatility in oil incomes and avoiding inefficient specialization in oil. Policies that set targets for the non-oil deficit could help manage some of these effects, but a conscious strategy to diversify would still be needed. The best strategy is therefore to use the additional oil revenue and accompanying investments to promote a diversification strategy that is sustainable. To determine how to encourage such a transformation, we draw on a new line of research that demonstrates how development seldom implies producing more of the same. Instead, as countries grow, they tend to move into new industries, while they also increase productivity in existing sectors. In this report, we analyze what those new industries might be for Uganda. To do so, we first look to those products which balance the desire to increase the diversification and complexity of production, while not over-stretching existing capabilities. These include mostly agricultural inputs, such as agrochemicals and food processing. In addition, Uganda should concurrently develop more complex industries, such as construction materials, that are reasonably within reach of current capabilities and will be in great demand in the context of an oil boom. Here, the fact that Uganda is landlocked and faces high import costs will provide natural protection to the expanding demand in Uganda and neighboring countries. We conclude with a discussion of the government policies that will support Uganda in developing new tradable industries.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

927. Capital Flight: Measurement and Drivers

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, James K. Boyce, and Ameth Saloum Ndiaye
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper describes the nature of capital flight, the methodologies used to measure it, and its drivers. The paper presents updated estimates of the magnitude of capital flight from 39 African countries for which adequate data are available for the period 1970-2010. It gives a global context of the problem of capital flight from Africa by providing comparative indicators on capital flight and related flows for other developing regions. The paper undertakes a detailed econometric analysis of the drivers of capital flight from African countries. It explores empirically the role of domestic and external factors in driving capital flight, including structural factors, the macroeconomic environment, governance, risk and returns to investment, capital account openness, and financial development. The first objective of the study is to contribute to the literature by providing the most comprehensive analysis of capital flight from Africa that takes into account economic as well as non-economic dimensions, and recognizes the importance of both the domestic and global contexts. The second objective is to contribute to the policy debate on capital flight both in Africa and globally.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Affairs, Global Markets, Global Political Economy, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

928. Macroeconomic Impact of Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
John Weeks
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of capital flight on growth in thirty-one sub-Saharan African countries. It first considers the “macro fundamentals” hypothesis that capital flight would be lower in a country whose government adhered to “sound” macroeconomic policies. Analytical considerations fail to support this hypothesis. Second, it develops a growth estimating equation derived from the Harrod-Domar framework. The growth estimations support the conclusion that capital flight had a major impact on growth over the last three decades, 1980–2010. The negative impact was greatest for the petroleum-exporting countries and those affected by internal conflict, but it was also substantial for the other countries, with a few exceptions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Markets, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Cameroon, Global Focus, Gabon, and Republic of Congo

929. Natural Resources and Capital Flight: A Role for Policy?

Author:
Lemma W. Senbet, Gregoire Rota-Graziosi, and Rabah Arezki
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between natural resources and capital flight in the form of tax avoidance from multinational corporations. In particular, it focuses on the spillover effects in terms of tax revenue mobilization and stock market development from the thin capitalization rule, a policy instrument aimed at limiting firm tax avoidance through setting limits on a firm’s foreign indebtedness. We exploit the plausibly exogenous within-country variations of data on oil discoveries for a panel of 117 countries during the period 1970–2012. We find evidence that oil discoveries significantly enhance both tax revenue mobilization and stock market development, but only when a thin capitalization rule is in place. We argue that these findings can be explained through the limiting role of a thin capitalization rule in multinational companies’ use of financial transactions among their affiliates or tax havens to transfer part of the profit. The thin capitalization rule may thus not only help limit the erosion of the domestic tax base but may also entice multinational corporations to resort to using and developing the domestic financial system.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Capital Flows, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa

930. Stunted Growth: Why Don't African Firms Create More Jobs?

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Leonardo Iacovone, and Martin Schmidt
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many countries in Africa suffer high rates of underemployment or low rates of productive employment; many also anticipate large numbers of people to enter the workforce in the near future. This paper asks the question: Are African firms creating fewer jobs than those located elsewhere? And, if so, why? One reason may be that weak business environments slow the growth of firms and distort the allocation of resources away from better-performing firms, hence reducing their potential for job creation.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Israel

931. Development as Diffusion: Manufacturing Productivity and Sub-Saharan Africa's Missing Middle

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Alan Gelb, and Christian J. Meyer
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We consider economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa from the perspective of slow convergence of productivity, both across sectors and across firms within sectors. Why have "productivity enclaves", islands of high productivity in a sea of smaller low-productivity firms, not diffused more rapidly? We summarize and analyze three sets of factors: First, the poor business climate, which constrains the allocation of production factors between sectors and firms. Second, the complex political economy of business-government relations in Africa's small economies. Third, the distribution of firm capabilities. The roots of these factors lie in Africa's geography and its distinctive history, including the legacy of its colonial period on state formation and market structure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa

932. Foreign investments in Uganda's oil sector: linkages and issues for the local economy

Author:
Anne Mette Kjær
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Ugandan economy resembles many other economies in sub-Saharan Africa in that it has a large subsistence sector, relies on a few primary commodities for export and depends on aid to finance its public services. Oil and minerals have so far not been important to the economy. However, this might change as an estimated 3.5 billion barrel oil reservoir has been discovered in Uganda's Western and Northwestern Albertine Graben. Minerals have also been found and are being sold off as concessions. If oil revenues start to be mobilized as currently planned (2016-17), significant changes in not only government finance but also in the governments' relationships with donors and in state–society relations are likely to occur. The consequences for local communities and the environment are also likely to be significant.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Oil, Natural Resources, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

933. Social Accountability and Public Service Delivery in Rural Africa

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Social accountability as a tool for development planning is gaining foothold in international donor circles. It is concerned with the responsibility and responsiveness of state authorities, as well as the ability of citizens to make claims and hold those who exercise power to account for their actions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Non-Governmental Organization, Foreign Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

934. From enclave to linkage economies? A review of the literature on linkages between extractive multinational corporations and local industry in Africa

Author:
Michael W. Hansen
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
If African developing countries are to benefit fully from the current boom in foreign direct investment (FDI) in extractives (i.e. mining and oil/gas), it is essential that the foreign investors foster linkages to the local economy. Traditionally, extractive FDI in Africa has been seen as the enclave economy par excellence, moving in with fully integrated value chains, extracting resources and exporting them as commodities having virtually no linkages to the local economy. However, new opportunities for promoting linkages are offered by changing business strategies of local African enterprises as well as foreign multinational corporations (MNCs). MNCs in extractives are increasingly seeking local linkages as part of their efficiency, risk, and asset-seeking strategies, and linkage programmes are becoming integral elements in many MNCs' corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. At the same time, local African enterprises are eager to, and increasingly capable of, linking up to the foreign investors in order to expand their activities and acquire technology, skills and market access. The changing strategies of MNCs and the improving capabilities of African enterprises offer new opportunities for governments and donors to mobilize extractive FDI for development goals. This paper seeks to take stock of what we know about the state of and driving forces of linkage formation in South Sahel Africa extractives based on a review of the extant literature. The paper argues that while MNCs and local enterprises by themselves will indeed produce linkages, the scope, depth and development impacts of linkages eventually depend on government intervention. Resource-rich African countries' governments are aware of this and linkage promotion is increasingly becoming a key element in their industrialization strategies. A main point of the paper is that the choice between different linkage policies and approaches should be informed by a firm understanding of the workings of the private sector as well as the political and institutional capacity of host governments to adopt and implement linkage policies and approaches.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

935. Migration and social mobility in Burkina Faso: historical perspectives on the migration divide

Author:
Anne Sofie Westh Olsen
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Mobility is a resource and a privilege that is unevenly distributed between countries, and within countries. People from developing countries depend on visas and residence permits to a larger extent than citizens of the developed world. Most migration policy research determines the inequality of mobility mainly as a consequence of restrictive immigration policies in destination countries. The focus of this paper is instead on the limited access order that has led to unequal access to migration between people from an African sending country, which has been largely overlooked. This paper shows the historical emergence of a migration divide between intercontinental and intra-African migrants. Through a historical analysis, the paper under-lines how academic migration to France became a means to social mobility in Burkina Faso after independence, while today there is a breakdown of the social elevator via migration since preferential access to migration is likely to enhance the divide between rich and poor.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Africa and France

936. The Development of Natural Resource Linkages in Mozambique: The Ruling Elite Capture of New Economic Opportunities

Author:
Lars Buur
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper explores linkage creation in Mozambique related to mega-projects in natural resource extraction and development from a political economy perspective. It explores through a focus on linkage development related to extractive industries in Mozambique the 'best practice' attempts between commodity producers and local content providers. The paper argues that a relatively elaborate state organizational and institutional setup based on policies, strategies and units with funding tools has emerged over time in order to begin to reap the benefits of large-scale investments in the extractive sectors. However, despite the formal acknowledgement, very little has been achieved with regard to forward and backward linkages, state institutions are often despite the official government rhetoric of importance simply bypassed not only by foreign investors, but also by the political leadership.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

937. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

938. Promoting Inclusive Growth in Arab Countries: Rural and Regional Development and Inequality in Tunisia

Author:
Mongi Boughzala and Mohamed Tlili Hamdi
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Regional disparities and inequality between the rural and the urban areas in Tunisia have been persistently large and perceived as a big injustice. The main regions that did not receive an equitable share from the country's economic growth, as compared to the coastal regions that are highly urbanized, are the predominantly rural western regions. Their youth often have to migrate to the cities to look for work and most of them end up with low-paying and frustrating jobs in the informal sector. The more educated among them face a very uncertain outlook and the highest rate of unemployment. This bias is strongest for female workers and university graduates living in the poor rural regions. The purpose of this paper is to study the underlying causes and factors of these disparities and to discuss policies and measures that may allow these regions to benefit from faster and more inclusive growth.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Africa, Arabia, and Tunisia

939. Supporting The Internet as a Platform for International Trade

Author:
Joshua Meltzer
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper is about the potential of the Internet as a platform for international trade. A traditional understanding of the impact of the Internet on commerce is derived from the dot.com experience of the 1990s, where Internet companies such as Pets.com and Amazon sold goods online. Since then, the impact of the Internet on commerce has grown and changed. Certainly, the ability to sell goods online remains important. However, the key development is that the Internet is no longer only a digital storefront. Instead, the Internet as described in this working paper is a platform for businesses to sell to customers domestically and overseas, and is a business input that increases productivity and the ability of businesses to compete. Understanding the Internet as a platform for trade highlights its broad economic potential. It emphasizes how the commercial opportunities are no longer limited to Internet companies, but are now available for businesses in all sectors of the economy, from manufacturing to services. Moreover, the global nature of the Internet means that these opportunities are no longer limited to domestic markets, but are embraced wherever Internet access is available.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

940. Designing Youth Employment Policies in Egypt

Author:
Akira Murata
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The paper uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit job preferences among youth, and analyzes survey data collected from engineering students at 10 universities in six cities in Egypt during the period of July through October 2013. For a comparative analysis, the survey was also conducted at eight universities in five cities in Indonesia, which is one of the nations in Asia with a Muslim-majority population that faces the same demographic issue. The findings of this research will contribute to building a foundation for designing youth employment policies in Egypt. The most obvious findings to emerge from this study are that: the public-private sector wage differentials must be narrowed; better benefits must accompany private sector employment (particularly support for continuing education, upgrading qualifications, and health insurance); and good IT infrastructure matters. Taken together, these steps could significantly contribute to an increase in the rates of a private sector employment among young Egyptian job seekers, even in the case of continued high public sector wages.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Africa, America, and Arabia

941. Improving Regional and Rural Development for Inclusive Growth in Egypt

Author:
Hafez Ghanem
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper examines how economic growth in Egypt can be made more inclusive through a focus on rural development and reducing regional disparities. Nearly all of the extremely poor in Egypt live in rural areas and 83 percent of them live in Upper Egypt. The youth in those rural areas feel particularly excluded.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Arabia

942. Does Violence Pay? The Effect of Ethnic Rebellion on Overcoming Political Deprivation

Author:
Carlo Koos
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Studies have found that politically deprived groups are more likely to rebel. However, does rebellion increase the likelihood of achieving political rights? This article proposes that rebellion helps ethnic groups to overcome deprivation. I illustrate this by using a "typical" case (the Ijaw's struggle against the Nigerian government) to demonstrate how ethnic rebellion increases the costs for the government to a point where granting political rights becomes preferable to war. Further, I exploit time-series-cross-sectional data on deprived ethnic groups to show that rebellion is significantly associated with overcoming deprivation. The statistical analysis shows that democratic change is an alternative mechanism.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Poverty, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa and Dhaka

943. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram Insurgency

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Boko Haram's four-year-old insurgency has pitted neighbour against neighbour, cost more than 4,000 lives, displaced close to half a million, destroyed hundreds of schools and government buildings and devastated an already ravaged economy in the North East, one of Nigeria's poorest regions. It overstretches federal security services, with no end in sight, spills over to other parts of the north and risks reaching Niger and Cameroon, weak countries poorly equipped to combat a radical Islamist armed group tapping into real governance, corruption, impunity and underdevelopment grievances shared by most people in the region. Boko Haram is both a serious challenge and manifestation of more profound threats to Nigeria's security. Unless the federal and state governments, and the region, develop and implement comprehensive plans to tackle not only insecurity but also the injustices that drive much of the troubles, Boko Haram, or groups like it, will continue to destabilise large parts of the country. Yet, the government's response is largely military, and political will to do more than that appears entirely lacking.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

944. Afrique centrale : les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La pénétration du pastoralisme qui s'accentue depuis plusieurs années en Afrique centrale génère des conflits à la fois fréquents et ignorés dans un monde rural où l'empreinte de l'Etat est particulièrement faible. Ces conflits s'intensifient sous l'effet conjugué de plusieurs facteurs: l'insécurité croissante, le changement climatique qui pousse les pasteurs toujours plus au sud, l'éclatement des couloirs traditionnels de transhumance, notamment transfrontaliers, l'extension des cultures et l'augmentation des cheptels qui entrainent une compétition accrue sur les ressources naturelles. Même si les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme ne sont pas de même intensité dans les trois pays étudiés dans ce rapport (Tchad, République centrafricaine et République démocratique du Congo), ils ont deux dénominateurs communs : l'impératif d'une prise en compte de ce problème par les pouvoirs publics et la nécessité d'une régulation de la transhumance qui inclue les différents acteurs concernés.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa

945. Launching a New Chapter in U.S.-Africa Relations

Author:
Richard Downie and Jennifer G. Cooke
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Africa's changing economic landscape is prompting a shift in how U.S. policymakers view the continent. High growth rates, new technologies, and a rapidly expanding consumer class are driving greater global competition for investment and access to potential export markets, and the United States is recognizing that it will need to step up its game to remain relevant and influential in an increasingly crowded and competitive environment. This will mean placing a stronger emphasis on strengthening trade and investment ties and encouraging U.S. companies to take fuller advantage of expanding opportunities. Playing up these opportunities will not only serve long-term U.S. commercial interests in Africa but will serve U.S. development and diplomatic objectives as well. U.S. investments, done right, can have long-term development impacts in Africa, through technology and knowledge transfer, training, systems development, and partnerships. And a new, more optimistic engagement with Africa's citizens and entrepreneurs will have strong resonance with the continent's up-and-coming generation, creating links based on enduring mutual interest.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

946. The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab

Author:
Matt Bryden
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The September 2013 attack on Nairobi's Westgate Shopping Center, which left more than 70 people dead, has positioned the Somali extremist group, Al-Shabaab, firmly in the global spotlight. While some observers have interpreted the attack as a sign of "desperation," others perceive it as an indication of Al-Shabaab's reformation and resurgence under the leadership of the movement's Amir, Ahmed Abdi aw Mohamud Godane. The reality is, as usual, more complex. Westgate provided a glimpse of a movement in the throes of a protracted, fitful, and often-violent transition: Al-shabaab is in the process of reinventing itself.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa

947. Family Planning and Linkages with U.S. Health and Development Goals

Author:
Janet Fleischman and Alisha Kramer
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
For decades, the United States has been the global leader in supporting voluntary family planning services around the world. The benefits of family planning are numerous, not only for women's health, but also for increasing child survival, nutrition, education, and economic development, as well as preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. For these reasons, family planning is a core component of sustainable development.
Topic:
Health, Foreign Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

948. Terminating Security Council Sanctions

Author:
Kristen E. Boon
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This report assesses the United Nations Security Council's current approach to drawing down sanctions in intrastate war situations. After examining broader questions surrounding the UN's authority to impose sanctions and the corresponding limits on these powers, this report assesses criteria used by the council to terminate sanctions. It observes that multilateral sanctions under the UN Security Council tend to last substantially longer than sanctions by regional organizations, such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); and it argues that short sanctions periods are preferable to long sanctions periods.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

949. Who Wants to Farm? Youth Aspirations, Opportunities and Rising Food Prices

Author:
Jennifer Leavy and Naomi Hossain
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Who wants to farm? In an era of land grabs and environmental uncertainty, improving smallholder productivity has become a higher priority on the poverty and food security agenda in development, focusing attention on the next generation of farmers. Yet emerging evidence about the material realities and social norms and desires of young people in developing countries indicates a reasonably widespread withdrawal from work on the land as an emerging norm. While de-agrarianisation is not new, policymakers are correct to be concerned about a withdrawal from the sector: smallholder productivity growth, and agricultural transformation more broadly, depend in part on the extent to which capable, skilled young people can be retained or attracted to farming, and on policies that support that retention. So who wants to farm, and under what conditions? Where are economic, environmental and social conditions favourable to active recruitment by educated young people into farming? What policy and programmatic conditions are creating attractive opportunities in farming or agro-food industry livelihoods?
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

950. South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 15 December 2013 the world's newest state descended into civil war. Continuing fighting has displaced more than 1,000,000 and killed over 10,000 while a humanitarian crisis threatens many more. Both South Sudanese and the international community were ill-prepared to prevent or halt the conflict: the nation's closest allies did little to mediate leadership divisions within the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement's (SPLM). The SPLM and its army (SPLA) quickly split along divisions largely unaddressed from the independence war. Were it not for the intervention of Uganda and allied rebel and militia groups, the SPLA would likely not have been able to hold Juba or recapture lost territory. The war risks tearing the country further apart and is pulling in regional states. Resolving the conflict requires not a quick fix but sustained domestic and international commitment. Governance, including SPLM and SPLA reform and communal relations, must be on the table. Religious and community leaders, civil society and women are critical to this process and must not be excluded.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

951. Die Global Governance des Wassers. Eine Untersuchung der Wasserpolitik und städtischen Versorgungslage in Uganda

Author:
Anne Siebert
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Over the past decade, Uganda has developed strong water and sanitation sector reform policies grounded in a constitutional guarantee to the human right to water. This yielded not yet to comprehensive results in improvement of the supply situation. This Working Paper analyzes and critically evaluates this rights-based water reform process on global and national level to identify the context-specific conditions in Uganda for the successes and failures. It investigates the related policies in Uganda; and also has a look at formal and informal sectors of society. In particular, the paper asks whether and how human rights-based arrangements and strategies can serve as a model for addressing the urgent water sector challenges. Furthermore, the paper discusses how policy transfer, rights awareness, and community participation in context of water supply and sanitation might be influenced in a sustainable way.
Topic:
Human Rights, Water, and Governance
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

952. Regional Organizations and Sanctions Against Members: Explaining the Different Trajectories of the African Union, the League of Arab States, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

Author:
Elin Hellquist
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The Organization of African Unity (OAU), the League of Arab States (Arab League), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) were all established as post-colonial projects with the explicit aim to safeguard state borders and shield sovereign governments from external interference. Yet, their approaches to regional interference in domestic affairs have with time taken on different trajectories. This working paper traces the present diversity in regional approaches to negative sanctions against members back to formative events in the early days of regional cooperation. All three organizations had to confront political problems of substantial regional weight at an early stage: the OAU the apartheid regimes in Southern Africa, ASEAN the Vietnam War, and the Arab League the creation of the state of Israel. The analysis demonstrates that the concepts of the region the organizations articulated as they dealt with these problems continue to inform present positions on involvement in domestic affairs.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Border Control
Political Geography:
Africa, Arabia, and Southeast Asia

953. Seeking security in Africa: China's evolving approach to the African Peace and Security Architecture

Author:
Chris Alden
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
China is on course to becoming more deeply involved in Africa's security landscape. While the motivation behind Chinese involvement remains primarily economic, the growing exposure of its interests to the vagaries of African politics, as well as pressures to demonstrate greater global activism, are bringing about a reconsideration of Beijing's approach to the continent. China faces threats on three fronts to its standing in Africa: reputational risks derived from its assocation with certain governments; risks to its business interests posed by mecurial leaders and weak regulatory regimes; and risks faced by its citizens operating in unstable African environments. Addressing these concerns poses challenges for Beijing, whose desire to play a larger role in security often clashes with the complexities of doing so while preserving Chinese foreign policy principles and economic interests on the continent.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

954. Brazil's growing relevance to peace and security in Africa

Author:
Adriana Erthal Abdenur and Danilo Marcondes de Souza Neto
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
There is growing interest in the role of rising powers in African politics and development, as South-South cooperation with Africa expands. Although recent research on this trend has examined Brazil's increasing economic and political relevance in Africa, relatively little has been written on the country's involvement in peace and security on the continent. This report helps to address this gap by focusing on Brazil's role in African security, especially over the past decade – a period that brought about a surge in Brazil-Africa ties and, simultaneously, the development of the African Peace and Security Architecture. We find that Brazil's involvement encompasses a wide range of state and non-state actors, and that it has been motivated not only by economic interests, but also by a greater prioritisation of Africa and the South Atlantic by Brazil's foreign and defence policies. Topics covered in the report include Brazil's role in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, arms exports, military cooperation, concerns with the spread of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, positions on major crises, and institution-building efforts. These initiatives reflect not only Brazil's quest to become a global player, but also its efforts to redefine its strategic focus to encompass the South Atlantic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Security, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Brazil, and South America

955. Rising powers in Africa: what does this mean for the African peace and security agenda?

Author:
Elling N. Tjønneland
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Much has been written about the role of the rising or emerging powers and their accelerating economic engagement in Africa. Much less is known about how they contribute to or impact on the African peace and security agenda. This report takes a comparative look at the roles of China, India, Brazil and South African in relation to the African Union and its African Peace and Security Architecture. Each of these four countries has a distinct commercial and corporate approach to Africa, despite a shared political commitment to South-South cooperation. However, as they extend their economic engagement they are becoming more sensitive to insecurity and volatility. The Asian and Latin American countries, which traditionally have strongly emphasised non-intervention, are gradually becoming more involved in the African security agenda. They are increasingly concerned about their image and reputation and the security of their citizens and business interests, and are becoming more prepared to act multilaterally and to work with others in facilitating security and stability. As an African power, South Africa plays a more direct role and has emerged as a major architect of the continent's evolving peace and security architecture. This report summarises elements from a broader research project on rising powers and the African peace and security agenda undertaken by CMI in cooperation with NOREF.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Latin America

956. Governance Transfer by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

Author:
Christof Hartmann
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
In the early 1990s, ECOWAS already committed its member states to standards of democracy and human rights. The organization developed its framework for governance transfer primarily through its 1999 and 2001 protocols in the wake of democratization processes in its member states. Overall standards are more developed in the fields of (liberal) democracy and human rights than in the rule of law and good governance. ECOWAS's instruments for protecting democracy and human rights are far-reaching, allowing for sanctions and military interventions under the so-called 'Mechanism.' By comparison, there are few instruments to actively promote governance standards beyond election observation missions. In practice, ECOWAS has generally reacted to political crises and security threats in its member states with a mixture of diplomatic interventions, fact-finding missions, and (the threat of) sanctions. These measures were mostly carried out by individual member states and only loosely linked to regional rules and procedures.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

957. The Political Economy of UN Peacekeeping: Incentivizing Effective Participation

Author:
Katharina P. Coleman
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The United Nations (UN) has a unique set of mechanisms for financing its peacekeeping operations, and it can draw on significant funding for this purpose: total authorized expenditure for the 2013-2014 budget year was $7.54 billion. These resources allow the UN to employ civilian peacekeepers, enter into commercial contracts for its peacekeeping missions, and shape the financial incentives of states deciding whether and how to participate in a UN peacekeeping operation. Ideally, UN peacekeeping financing mechanisms should incentivize timely state contributions of highly effective peacekeeping units willing to make full use of their capabilities.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

958. Development: Advancement through International Organizations

Author:
Rohinton Medhora and David Malone
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The familiar world of international organizations principally devoted to development has been upended by two phenomena. First is the emergence of sustained economic success in the developing world (mostly in Asia, but increasingly also in Africa and, in a less spectacular way, Latin America) amid compelling, continuing need among the world's poor. Second, the slow-moving, serious financial and economic crisis of the industrialized world since 2008 has reordered priorities in many of their capitals toward domestic spending and away from costly international projects.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, United Nations, and Latin America

959. No Time to Hit Snooze in North Africa and the Sahel

Author:
Joshua C. Burgess
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Obama administration should demonstrate renewed resolve to counter growing extremism in the region and build lasting stability, starting with a joint U.S.-French statement during President Francois Hollande's visit to Washington this week.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

960. A Cosmetic End to Madagascar's Crisis?

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Madagascar is on the cusp of exiting a five-year political crisis compounded by economic disorder and international isolation. Presidential elections in late 2013 were endorsed as credible following the victory of Hery Rajaonarimampianina. The return to democracy paves the way for renewed international support. However, division entrenched by former President Marc Ravalomanana's exile has polarised the country. The coup regime of Andry Rajoelina was characterised by socio-economic malaise, rampant corruption, institutional decay and the breakdown in the rule of law. The political system, which is the primary obstacle to sustained recovery, needs much more than a cosmetic makeover; fundamental reform is necessary. The African Union, Southern African Development Community and International Support Group for Madagascar must support Rajaonarimampianina's efforts to balance political interests in a marked departure from the traditional winner-take-all approach; reform and strengthening of key democratic institutions; and reform and professionalisation of the security sector.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Tamil Nadu

961. Regional Sanctions against Burundi: A Powerful Campaign and Its Unintended Consequences

Author:
Julia Grauvogel
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of regionally imposed sanctions on the trajectory of the Burundian regime and its involvement in the peace process following the 1996 coup in the country. Despite the country's socioeconomic and geopolitical vulnerability, the Buyoya government withstood the pressure from the sanctions. Through a vocal campaign against these sanctions, the new government mitigated the embargo's economic consequences and partially reestablished its international reputation. Paradoxically, this campaign planted the seed for comprehensive political concessions in the long term. While previous literature has attributed the sanctions' success in pressuring the government into negotiations to their economic impact, the government actually responded to the sanction senders' key demand to engage in unconditional, inclusive peace talks under the auspices of the regional mediator once the economy had already started to recover. The regime's anti-sanctions campaign, with its emphasis on the government's willingness to engage in peace talks, backfired, with Buyoya forced to negotiate after having become entrapped in his own rhetoric.
Topic:
Government, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

962. Governance Transfer by the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Author:
Anna van der Vleuten and Merran Hulse
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
As early as 1992, the Treaty of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) already included a commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as governance standards in its member states, but it was in 2001 that SADC significantly broadened its efforts at governance transfer. SADC focuses in particular on standards related to gender, (socioeconomic) human rights, and (electoral) democracy, which are promoted and protected through various instruments including military interventions and sanctions in the framework of security cooperation. While the rule of law and good governance have also gained a more prominent place on the agenda since 2001, standards and instruments are less developed. Overall, there is a significant gap between the prescription of standards and policies on the one hand and the implementation of measures on the other. The suspension of the SADC Tribunal in 2010 following its rulings on human rights issues clearly shows the limits of SADC as an active promoter vis-à-visits member states.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

963. Is There a Role for Mobiles to Support Sustainable Agriculture in Africa?

Author:
Batchelor Simon, Scott Nigel, Valverde Alvaro, Manfre Cristina, and Edwards David
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper from the Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on ICTs for Sustainability (ICT4S 2014) reviews findings from detailed consultation with 50 global experts in Agriculture and Information Communication Technologies (ICTs). The study explores how ICTs (particularly mobile phones) could be used to accelerate the uptake of sustainable agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper develops a detailed conceptual model, built around the smallholder farmer, for understanding the flow of information through the agriculture sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

964. A Sign of Things to Come? Examining four major climate-related disasters, 2010–2013, and their impacts on food security

Author:
Coghlan Christopher, Muzammil Maliha, Ingram John, Vervoort Joost, Otto Friederike, and James Rachel
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
From 2010 to 2013 the world experienced a number of extreme weather events, several of which were notable for their intensity, duration, and impacts on livelihoods and food security. This report focuses on four case studies – a heat wave in Russia, flooding in Pakistan, drought in East Africa, and a typhoon in the Philippines – that represent a range of extreme weather. It analyses the impact of these extreme weather events on food security, by considering when and why threats emerge. This involves characterization of the weather events, examination of the vulnerable groups affected, and analysis of livelihoods and the role of governance and capital.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, Russia, and Philippines

965. Building a Social Contract in South Sudan

Author:
Rama Anthony
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
South Sudan is one of four Oxfam country projects delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by DFID from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict - affected and fragile contexts – and is sharing the experience and learning within Oxfam and with the wider development world.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

966. Why Maintaining Tropical Forests Is Essential and Urgent for a Stable Climate

Author:
Rosa C. Goodman and Martin Herold
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Tropical forests have the highest carbon density and cover more land area than forests in any other biome. They also serve a vital role as a natural buffer to climate change ―capturing 2.2–2.7 Gt of carbon per year. Unfortunately, tropical forests, mangroves, and peatlands are also subjected to the highest levels of deforestation and account for nearly all net emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) (1.1–1.4 Gt C / year). Net emissions from FOLU accounted for only 11% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or 14% of total carbon emissions in 2010, though these figures are somewhat misleading and do not reflect the full potential of tropical forests to mitigate climate change. First, net FOLU emissions have reduced only slightly while emissions from all other sectors have skyrocketed. Secondly, the FOLU net flux is made up of two larger fluxes —deforestation emissions (2.6–2.8 Gt C / year) minus sequestration from forest regrowth (1.2–1.7 Gt C / year). Additionally, intact tropical forests also appear to be capturing at least 1.0 Gt C/ year. Gross deforestation, therefore, accounts for over a quarter of all carbon emissions, and tropical forests have removed 22–26% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions in the 2000s. If deforestation were halted entirely, forests were allowed to regrow, and mature forests were left undisturbed, tropical forests alone could have captured 25–35% of all other anthropogenic carbon emissions. On the other hand, if climate change continues unabated, forests could turn from net sinks to net sources of carbon. Forestrelated activities are among the most economically feasible and cost-effective mitigation strategies, which are important for both short- and long-term mitigation strategies. Action is needed immediately to utilize these natural mitigation solutions, and we need coordinated and comprehensive forest-related policies for mitigation. An international mechanism such as REDD+ is essential to realize the great natural potential for tropical forests to stabilize the climate.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and Latin America

967. New Report Examines East Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development

Author:
Solomon Dersso
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda with its secretariat headquartered in Djibouti, covers northeast Africa, a region continuing to experience major changes, arguably more than any other part of the continent. This is the only region of Africa where colonially drawn borders have been redrawn. In contrast to other regions of Africa, this is also where the prospect of further redrawing of borders—with Somaliland seeking international recognition as a separate state—remains a real possibility.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Economics, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

968. Quantify Spatiotemporal Patterns of Urban Growth in Hanoi Using Time Series Spatial Metrics and Urbanization Gradient Approach

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Tomoaki Miura, James Spencer, Qi Chen, and Christopher Lepczyk
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The year of 2010 was the first time in human civilization that the urban population had reached 3.5 billion people or crossed the 50% mark and continued to grow with no sign of slowing down especially for developing countries in Africa and asia (UN,2011). In 1800, only few percent of the world population lived in urban areas, but quickly increased to 14% in 1900 and then 30% in 1950 (platt,1994). Clearly, urban areas have become one of our primary habitats; therefore, urban sustainability is becoming more important than ever.
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

969. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

970. The Rising Terrorist Threat in Tanzania: Domestic Islamist Militancy and Regional Threats

Author:
Andre LeSage
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Despite its reputation for peace and stability in a troubled region, the East African country of Tanzania is experiencing a rising number of militant Islamist attacks that have targeted local Christian leaders and foreign tourists, as well as popular bars and restaurants. These attacks, which began in 2012, rarely make the headlines of international media. However, they should serve as a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers to increase short-term engagement with Tanzanian officials and support for Tanzanian security agencies to preempt the emergence of a more significant threat to U.S. and international interests in East Africa.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Tanzania

971. United Nations Peace Building in Sierra Leone —Toward Vertical Integration?

Author:
Michael Lawrence
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This research report examines the “vertical integration” of United Nations (UN) peace building efforts in Sierra Leone by examining the extent to which the mission reached beyond national government institutions and elites to engage society more broadly in peace building. It focuses on the country's youth crisis as a persistent cause of conflict that presents ample opportunity for civil society engagement, and identifies two modes of coordinating youth peace building efforts across international, national and local scales. After exploring different understandings of peace building between these actors, this report ultimately argues that the United Nations fostered only weak vertical integration on the crucial issue of youth marginalization; that the lack of engagement leaves the peace vulnerable; and that deeper vertical integration can help ameliorate this ongoing challenge.
Topic:
Youth Culture and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Sierra Leone

972. African Perspectives on Sovereign Debt Restructuring

Author:
Domenico Lombardi, Skylar Brooks, and Ezra Suruma
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On August 7 and 8, 2014, CIGI's Global Economy Program co-hosted a conference with Uganda Debt Network to discuss African perspectives on sovereign debt restructuring. The proceedings, opened by the vice president of Uganda, took place in Kampala, and featured several distinguished participants — including current and former finance ministers and central bank governors, academics and practitioners, and civil society representatives — from Uganda, Liberia, Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Participants also came from civil society organizations and intergovernmental institutions representing broader groups of African countries or the continent as a whole.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ghana, and Cameroon

973. Improving Maternal, Neonatal, and Child Health in Ghana

Author:
Katherine E. Bliss and Cathryn Streifel
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In June 2014, a small team from the CSIS Global Health Policy Center traveled to Ghana to examine U.S. bilateral support for maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH). The purpose of the trip was to plan a return visit with a delegation of U.S. congressional staff in August 2014. Ghana's mixed progress toward meeting Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5 related to maternal and child health; its strong relationship on immunizations with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and its longstanding partnership on health with the United States were all reasons we decided to examine the country's MNCH situation. By late July, the acceleration of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa led us to postpone the trip until emergency preparations are not a major focus of the Ghanaian government, the United States, and other partners. Considering the fruitful meetings we had in June, we have captured here some of our initial impressions, observations, and recommendations.
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Ghana

974. Insecticide Resistance and Malaria A Threat Decades in the Making

Author:
William G. Brogdon, Anthony Fiore, S.P. Kachur, Laurence Slutsker, and Robert A. Wirtz
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Insecticide (DDT) use to control malaria was first employed successfully in the antimalaria program in Greece in 1947. By 1951, DDT success in controlling malaria was reported in 22 countries. However, that year also saw the first report of DDT resistance, in Anopheles sacharovi in Greece. By 1954, resistance to DDT among mosquitos was known to be a global problem, documented in Europe, the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The World Health Organization–led Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) began in 1955, when resistance was already pronounced worldwide. Scientists did not identify the underlying biochemical mechanism contributing to insecticide resistance until 1958. By then, insecticide resistance was recognized by many to be a major contributor to the ultimate dismantling of GMEP, given the limited capabilities and knowledge of the time. Consequently, the global focus shifted from malaria “eradication” to malaria “control” in the late 1960s.
Topic:
Environment, Health, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
Africa, Greece, and Asia

975. Transformative Tools for Malaria Elimination

Author:
PATH Malaria Center of Excellence
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past 15 years, malaria has gained increased attention and action from the public health community, with researchers, global and national funders, and, most importantly, national governments and communities in endemic areas. Renewed efforts to fight the disease have resulted in an unprecedented 50 percent reduction in malaria deaths in African children since 2000. This progress has been achieved in large part because effective, efficient, and affordable tools emerged as a result of earlier investments in research and development.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
Africa

976. Taxes and Development

Author:
Conor M. Savoy and Christina M. Perkins
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The ability of a state to mobilize its own resources to pay for vital social services is at the heart of a well-functioning government. As developing countries have grown wealthier over the past de cade, they have seen a corresponding rise in the amount of domestic revenue available. The numbers are truly staggering: in 2012 developing and emerging economies mobilized $7.7 trillion in domestic resources. Even in sub- Saharan Africa, where the pace of change has been slower, domestic resources topped $530 billion in 2012; official development assistance in contrast totaled approximately $54 billion. Some of this is driven by the commodities boom of the past several years, but much is organic growth that has seen gross domestic product (GDP) rise. These domestic numbers, plus the rapid growth in private capital flows to the developing world, radically change the calculus of development financing.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Budget
Political Geography:
Africa

977. Guinea's Other Emergency: Organising Elections

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the midst of the Ebola crisis, Guinea is preparing for the presidential election due in 2015. The exact election date is just one of many points being contested by the government and opposition. The political debate is increasingly held along ethnic lines, rallying the vast majority of the Malinké behind President Alpha Condé's coalition and the Peul behind former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo's alliance. Violent protests around elections in 2012 and 2013, with highly contested results, brought both sides to the negotiating table, but the July 2014 talks about a future electoral framework quickly failed, marking the parties' deep suspicion and unwillingness to compromise. A highly flawed judiciary adds to the climate of uncertainty and the government is reluctant to listen to calls for a new round of dialogue and international mediation. In its latest briefing, Guinea's Other Emergency: Organising Elections, the International Crisis Group outlines the steps that should be taken to ensure peaceful elections.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Government, Political Power Sharing, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

978. Addressing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus: Transatlantic Perspectives and Africa's Great Chance

Author:
Peter Engelke
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report explores how the relationships between food, water, and energy resources shape our world and its future, with emphasis on Africa and the transatlantic region. Called the food-water-energy “nexus,” the interdependencies between these resources are fundamental to all human endeavor on Earth. Understanding this nexus and managing it effectively is a critical challenge for policymakers and thought leaders in the transatlantic arena. Solving the challenges found on the African continent might present both the greatest task and the greatest reward. The potential pitfalls of failing to tackle Africa's foodwater- energy challenges are enormous, for Africans themselves and for all countries sharing the Atlantic Ocean space. But the potential downside is more than matched by the potential upside, and the gains to be had from solving nexus problems in Africa might prove as profound as any set of goals in the world.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Water, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

979. To Charge or Not to Charge: Evidence from a Health Products Experiment in Uganda

Author:
Dean Karlan, Pia Raffler, Greg Fischer, and Margaret McConnell
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In a field experiment in Uganda, we find that demand after a free distribution of three health products is lower than after a sale distribution. This contrasts with work on insecticide-treated bed nets, highlighting the importance of product characteristics in determining pricing policy. We put forward a model to illustrate the potential tension between two important factors, learning and anchoring, and then test this model with three products selected specifically for their variation in the scope for learning. We find the rank order of shifts in demand matches with the theoretical prediction, although the differences are not statistically significant.
Topic:
Development and Health
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

980. Ebola and the Private Sector: Bolstering the response and West African economies

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is unprecedented. The increasing number of cases, the poor health infrastructure, the shortage of skills, knowledge and personnel, and the fear surrounding the disease are proving a huge challenge to affected governments and to the international community as they battle to bring the epidemic under control.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Health, Human Welfare, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

981. Seven Million Lives Saved: Under-5 Mortality Since the Launch of the Millennium Development Goals

Author:
John McArthur
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
To what extent have developing countries' patterns in reducing under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) changed since the advent of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)? This paper investigates that question across multiple time horizons, with attention to the fact that countries' progress had already begun to accelerate during the late 1990s compared to the early 1990s. The paper gives special consideration to countries the MDGs were primarily intended to support, including initially “Off Track” and low-income countries. Although only 21 percent of originally Off Track countries and 34 percent of originally low-income countries are now on a path to achieve the MDG target by 2015, at least 80 percent of each group has seen accelerated progress since 2001. Approximately 90 percent of countries in sub-Saharan Africa have accelerated. Most importantly, regression analysis indicates that cross-country trends since 2000 differ considerably from previous decades. The years since the launch of the MDGs include the first extended period in at least four decades during which rates of U5MR decline have not been negatively correlated with U5MR levels. Compared to a conservative counterfactual trend from 1996 to 2001, at least 7.5 million additional children's lives are estimated to have been saved between 2002 and 2013. The results suggest that much of the greatest structural progress has been achieved by countries not likely to achieve the formal MDG targets, even if their progress might be linked to the pursuit of those targets. Implications are considered for setting U5MR targets through to 2030.
Topic:
Development, Health, Human Welfare, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

982. Why Europe must stop outsourcing its security

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nick Witney
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The EU claims to be in the business of “crisis management” – ready if need be to make “robust” military interventions to control conflict, especially in its neighbourhood. In practice, it now prefers to “outsource” such interventions to others, notably the United Nations and African Union (AU), limiting itself to supporting roles. This is not just shabby; it also saps Europe's influence in a world in which European interests and values are increasingly contested. And it places too great a burden on organisations such as the UN and AU. Unless the EU rediscovers a willingness to bear the costs and risks of military operations to control conflict, Europe can expect everintensifying refugee pressure on its southern borders. Although military force will not help in Ukraine or the turmoil of the Middle East, the EU could make a big difference if it were prepared to do more in crisis management in Africa. The EU could contribute to or complement UN or AU efforts in a variety of ways. Responding to the crisis in UN peacekeeping, Ban Kimoon has ordered a review. New EU High Representative Federica Mogherini should do the same, involving outside experts in a stock-take of international efforts to control conflict to Europe's south and commissioning specific proposals to get the EU back to playing a properly responsible security role.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

983. Morocco's Approach to Countering Violent Extremism

Author:
Mohamed Salah Tamek
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Morocco has had a largely successful record of countering violent extremism within its borders, including the dismantling of numerous cells linked to al-Qaeda core or its North African offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Thousands of suspects have been arrested for perpetrating assassinations, assaults, and robberies; huge caches of heavy weapons have been confiscated; and authorities have foiled many attempts to attack security services, tourist attractions, diplomatic delegations, and places of worship for Christians and Jews. In addition, two channels of recruitment for jihadists in Mali were dismantled in late 2012, and two months ago, Moroccan and Spanish security forces jointly dismantled a transnational cell recruiting fighters for Syria and Mali.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Syria, Morocco, and Northern Mali

984. Libya's Growing Risk of Civil War

Author:
Andrew Engel
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Long-simmering tensions between non-Islamist and Islamist forces have boiled over into military actions centered around Benghazi and Tripoli, entrenching the country's rival alliances and bringing them ever closer to civil war. On May 16, former Libyan army general Khalifa Haftar launched "Operation Dignity of Libya" in Benghazi, aiming to "cleanse the city of terrorists." The move came three months after he announced the overthrow of the government but failed to act on his proclamation. Since Friday, however, army units loyal to Haftar have actively defied armed forces chief of staff Maj. Gen. Salem al-Obeidi, who called the operation "a coup." And on Monday, sympathetic forces based in Zintan extended the operation to Tripoli. These and other developments are edging the country closer to civil war, complicating U.S. efforts to stabilize post-Qadhafi Libya.
Topic:
Political Violence, Religion, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Libya, and Tripoli

985. Why do Youth Join Boko Haram?

Author:
Freedom C. Onuoha
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since Nigeria's return to democracy in May 1999, armed nonstate groups have significantly undermined the country's internal security environment, largely using young men as foot soldiers. Among these groups, Boko Haram has grown to become a serious national, regional, and international concern. Estimates of the death toll from Boko Haram attacks since 2009 range as high as ten thousand fatalities. With Boko Haram and other groups seemingly gaining in strength, questions arise as to why young men join them in the first place and what the government and other actors can do to prevent it. Surveys, interviews, and focus groups conducted in Nigeria in 2013 suggest that poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and weak family structures make or contribute to making young men vulnerable to radicalization. Itinerant preachers capitalize on the situation by preaching an extreme version of religious teachings and conveying a narrative of the government as weak and corrupt. Armed groups such as Boko Haram can then recruit and train youth for activities ranging from errand running to suicide bombings. To weaken the armed groups' abilities to radicalize and recruit young men, the Nigerian government at all levels, perhaps with support from interested international actors, could institute monitoring and regulation of religious preaching; strengthen education, job training, and job creation programs; design robust programs to aid destitute children; promote peace education; and embark on an anticorruption campaign. Addressing the conditions that make it possible for insurgents to recruit young men in Nigeria can significantly diminish the strength of the insurgency, if not eliminate it altogether.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

986. Local Government Discretion and Accountability in Sierra Leone

Author:
Benjamin Edwards, Serdar Yilmaz, and Jameson Boex
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Sierra Leone is a small West African country with approximately 6 million people. Since 2002, the nation has made great progress in recovering from a decade-long civil war, in part due to consistent and widespread support for decentralization and equitable service delivery. Three rounds of peaceful elections have strengthened democratic norms, but more work is needed to cement decentralization reforms and strengthen local governments. This paper examines decentralization progress to date and suggests several next steps the government of Sierra Leone can take to overcome the remaining hurdles to full implementation of decentralization and improved local public service delivery.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa

987. The Political Origins of the Africa's Economic Revival

Author:
Robert H. Bates and Steven Block
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Writing in the 1990's, William Easterly and Ross Levine famously labeled Africa a "growth tragedy." Less than twenty years later, Alwyn Young noted Africa's "growth miracle," while Steven Radelet less effusively pointed to an Africa that was"emerging" and noted its rising rate of economic growth, improving levels of education and health care, and increasing levels of investment in basic infrastructure: roads, ports, and transport. In this paper, we address Africa's economic revival. In doing so, we also stress the political changes that have taken place on the continent. Once notorious for its tyrants – Jean – Bedel Bokassa, Idi Amin, and Mobutu Sese Seko, to name but three – in the 1990s, Africa joined the last wave of democratization; self-appointed heads of state were replaced by rulers chosen in competitive elections. In this paper, we assert that the two sets of changes – the one economic and the other political – go together, and that, indeed, changes in Africa political institutions lent significant impetus to its economic revival.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa

988. Women's Political Participation In Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Aili Mari Tripp
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
One of the most interesting developments in African politics since the mid- 1990s has been the increase in women's political participation. Women are becoming more politically engaged and seeking representation at all levels, from local government to legislatures and even executive office. To state the obvious, access to political power is important to groups that have historically been excluded from formal and informal politics because it means being able to have control over basic decisions affecting one's life in areas including health, education, and access to land and resources, among many others. Many women seek power to affect how justly resources are divided in society and how equitably policy decisions are made.
Topic:
Human Rights and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Africa

989. Advancing Military Professionalism in Africa

Author:
Emile Ouédraogo
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Vivid examples of weak military professionalism in Africa are regularly evident in news accounts of instability on the continent. Militaries collapsing in the face of attacks by irregular forces, coups, mutinies, looting, human rights abuses against civilian populations, corruption, and engagement in illicit trafficking activities are widespread. This pattern persists decades after the end of colonialism, despite billions of dollars of security sector assistance and longstanding rhetoric on the need to strengthen civil-military relations on the continent. The costs for not having established strong professional militaries are high: persistent instability, chronic poverty, deterred investment, and stunted democratization.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Human Rights, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa

990. US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change

Author:
Jason Marczak and Peter Schechter
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Why is now the right moment to commission a poll on the US public's views toward Cuba and US-Cuba relations? Why is a new, nonpartisan Latin America center reaching out to grab the third rail of Latin American foreign policy in the United States? Both good questions. Sometimes in foreign policy, structural impediments or stark policy differences will stymie progress in a certain area. Relations with China could not proceed until the United States recognized a “one China” policy that forever downgraded US relations with Taiwan. An activist foreign policy with Africa was impossible until the United States denounced apartheid.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Cuba, and Latin America

991. The Political Economy of Bad Data: Evidence from African Survey Administrative Statistics

Author:
Amanda Glassman and Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Across multiple African countries, discrepancies between administrative data and independent household surveys suggest official statistics systematically exaggerate development progress. We provide evidence for two distinct explanations of these discrepancies. First, governments misreport to foreign donors, as in the case of a results-based aid program rewarding reported vaccination rates. Second, national governments are themselves misled by frontline service providers, as in the case of primary education, where official enrollment numbers diverged from survey estimates after funding shifted from user fees to per pupil government grants. Both syndromes highlight the need for incentive compatibility between data systems and funding rules.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment, Governance, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa

992. Inequality in South Africa: A two part document on the current understanding and dimensions of inequality in health, gender and livelihoods

Author:
Nicola Deghaye, Tamlyn McKenzie, and Petronella Chirawu
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Recognising inequality is at the heart of the South African 'development problem', Oxfam commissioned the Health Economics and HIV and AIDS Research Division (HEARD) to produce this report, which is divided into two parts, to enable an understanding of the dimensions of inequality in South Africa and to provide Oxfam with a set of basic measures against which it could measure its success in dealing with inequality.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Health, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

993. From the Gulf of Aden to the Gulf of Guinea: A New Maritime Mission for NATO?

Author:
Brooke Smith-Windsor and José Francisco Pavia
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Later this year, the mandate of one of the most successful NATO maritime missions in history - counterpiracy operations off East Africa in the Gulf of Aden region - will expire. The question presently facing NATO's 28 members states is whether to subsequently retain a presence in a region where the threat is now considerably reduced, or alternatively, refocus resources to where they are conceivably needed more to secure Allied interests. This paper makes the case for judicious consideration of a potential rebalance to Africa's new maritime hotspot: the Gulf of Guinea to the continent's West where threats to regional, Euro-Atlantic and international security and prosperity are on the rise. While recognizing that any decision to realign strategic priorities is ultimately a political one, this paper explains why the factors to justify greater Alliance capacity building (Cooperative Security) in the Gulf of Guinea region already exist in four vital respects: (1) Allied interests at stake; (2) international legitimacy for action; (3) established strategic guidance for the employment of Allied maritime and other means outside NATO territory; (4) relevant Allied operational competencies and expertise.
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, International Security, Maritime Commerce, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Guinea

994. The African Union and the Post-2015 Development Agenda

Author:
Barry Carin
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
African countries are currently engaged at the United Nations (UN) to determine the post-2015 framework to succeed the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The post-2015 goals matter because they will guide the priorities of UN agencies, the multilateral development banks, bilateral development assistance and civil society organizations. It is in Africa's interests to ensure the post-2015 framework is congruent with African priorities. African Union negotiators must take a strategic approach in the current process to select the post-2015 development goals.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

995. Responding to Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:
Patrice Sartre
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Gulf of Guinea has become notorious for its violent conflicts and political instability. This insecurity has its origins in bad governance, corruption, and failures of social and economic development. Violent power struggles and competition for the control of economic assets periodically cause crises to flare up, and these tend to be persistent and widespread. The international community has worked to move countries in the region onto a stable trajectory. West Africa has also made efforts to develop a coordinated approach to the region's challenges through a common security architecture. Such subregional initiatives may ultimately prove most conducive to long-term stability.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

996. Not Just in Transit: Drugs, the State and Society in West Africa

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This report examines the increase in drug trafficking and consumption in West Africa and their impact on the state and on society. It concludes with recommendations on how the region can respond humanely, effectively and preemptively to these problems.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, War on Drugs, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa

997. The Role of the Informal Economy in Addressing Urban Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Elizabeth Fraser, Malambo Moonga, and Johanna Wilkes
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is facing high rates of urbanization and increasing food insecurity. The informal food economy addresses food insecurity by providing access to affordable food and significant employment opportunities to the urban poor in SSA. The Committee on World Food Security should recognize the informal food economy as a critical governance issue. Different policy approaches need to be taken into account to address the diverse needs of the informal food economy, including the needs of "survivalist" traders, larger constrained enterprises and female vendors. Municipalities in SSA often have restricted budgets, which hinder their ability to appropriately govern and support the local informal food economy. Increases in municipal budgets to align with food security needs in urban Africa should be considered as decentralization continues across SSA.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Labor Issues, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa

998. Gender equality and land administration: the case of Zambia

Author:
Rachel Spichiger and Edna Kabala
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Land, and in particular agricultural land, is central to livelhoods in rural Zambia. Zambia is characterised by a dual legal system of customary and statutory law and by dual land tenure, with state land and customary land. A first wave of socialist-oriented reforms took place after independence in 1964, which abolished previously existing freehold land in favour of leasehold. Subsequent changes in government policies under the influence of structural adjustment programmes and a new government in 1991 paved the way for a market-driven land reform. The 1995 Lands Act introduced the privatization of land in Zambia and provided for the conversion of customary into state land, with the hope of attracting investors. However, the Act has been unevenly implemented, at least in rural areas, in part due to problems plaguing the land administration institutions and their work, in part due to opposition to the main tenets of the Act from chiefs, the population and civil society. Civil society, with donor support, calls for more attention towards women's precarious situations with regard to access to and ownership of land under customary tenure, but it still expresses a desire for customary tenure to remain. However, civil society also recognizes that customary practices are often also discriminatory towards women who depend on male relatives for access to land.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Gender Issues, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa

999. Gender Equality Concerns in Ghana's Land Reform: Current challenges and the role of donors

Author:
Rachel Spichiger and Paul Stacey
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Ghana has been implementing a land administration reform since 1999. The Land Administration Project (LAP), an ambitious programme supported by donors, aims to strenghten land administration institutions and increase land holders' security of tenure on both state and customary land. This working paper reviews the literature on this land reform process, with a focus on issues related to gender. At first absent from the 1999 Land Policy, gender concerns were later incorporated into the project and a gender strategy was developed in 2009, with the goal to mainstream gender in land-related agencies and activities. Although donors have contributed to the gender strategy, the inclusion of gender equality has not been at the forefront of their priorities.
Topic:
Agriculture, Gender Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

1000. Game of zones. The quest for influence in Europe's neighbourhood

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Russia's annexation of the Crimea and subsequent meddling in Ukraine does not constitute a game-changer. It is just a reminder that at least since the war with Georgia in 2008 Russia has been and still is playing the same game: a "game of zones",aimed at (re)establishing an exclusive sphere of influence. Many of us Europeans had forgotten that, or had pushed it to the back of our minds, preferring to believe that we were not engaged in a zero-sum game in our eastern neighbourhood.
Topic:
Security, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Middle East