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61. Partnering for Sustainable Peace in Liberia

Author:
Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
Liberia is at a pivotal point in its transition to a peaceful democracy. In October 2017 the country will have its first ‘open seat’ elections. The incumbent, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, will step down and hand over power to the leader of one of the 22 political parties that are currently participating in the election. Moreover, despite security fears for the elections, the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) has downsized from over 15 000 military troops in 2007 to around 1 000 soldiers in 2016 (see Figure 1). It will continue to draw down in 2017 in recognition of Liberia’s growing ownership of its own transition. The country has made steady progress in transitioning from decades of civil conflict into a new democracy. It has instituted a number of legal reforms, national strategies and peacebuilding activities to address the root causes of violence. Liberia has been receiving support from the United Nations’ (UN) Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) since 2010, but its institutions still need to be supported to consolidate their democracy gains. The 2015 review of the UN’s peacebuilding architecture argued that, for the peacebuilding components of peace operation mandates to be more effective, there must be better coordination between the UN Security Council Summary Liberia is going through an important period in its transition, with elections in October 2017 and the final drawdown of the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in March 2018. Despite having made significant strides towards sustainable peace, the country still has a number of urgent peacebuilding priorities that need to be addressed. This policy brief is based on field research carried out in November 2016. It makes targeted, practical recommendations to the UN Peacebuilding Commission on enhancing its support to Liberia, drawing on a wide range of partnerships with other internal and external peacebuilding actors. Partnering for sustainable peace in Liberia Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo 2 Partnering for sustainable peace in Liberia (UNSC), the PBC and UN Country Teams. It also stated that the PBC could play an enhanced role in advising the UNSC on the diverse range of views from the full spectrum of international peace, security and development tools and actors, and in developing practical and context-specific solutions. Finally, the PBC could be instrumental in bringing together various stakeholders, both from New York and from the field, to mobilise peacebuilding support to conflict-affected countries. What does this mean in the case of Liberia? Noting the numerous peacebuilding actors (including national, regional, subregional and international organisations) involved in Liberia’s efforts to sustain peace, this policy brief makes practical recommendations on how the PBC, particularly its Liberia Configuration, can enhance its role in the country. Liberia has instituted a number of legal reforms, national strategies and peacebuilding activities to address the root causes of violence Statement of Mutual Commitment on peacebuilding in Liberia is signed by the government of Liberia and the PBC This paper is part of a broader project called ‘Enhancing African responses to peacebuilding’, made up of a consortium of three partner organisations – the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and New York University’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC). It is one of a series of products derived from research carried out from 2–10 November 2016 in Monrovia with 36 stakeholders from 22 institutions. It takes its point of departure from the Statement of Mutual Commitment (SMC) on peacebuilding in Liberia, signed in April 2016 by the government of Liberia and the PBC. This statement is particularly important, as it is the most comprehensive document confirming the Liberian government’s peacebuilding priorities,3 namely security sector development, rule of law, national reconciliation and a peaceful and inclusive society.4 Cross-cutting issues such as decentralisation and empowering youth and women were also noted. This paper first looks at those of Liberia’s national frameworks relevant to peacebuilding. It then examines the engagements of multiple peacebuilding actors in Liberia, with a particular focus on the roles of African regional, subregional and bilateral organisations. It also unpacks principles as to why they may hold an advantage in certain peacebuilding activities. Finally, the paper explores how the PBC can develop context-specific solutions to Liberia’s peacebuilding priority areas, making use of partnerships.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Elections, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

62. Democratise or Disintegrate: How the AU Can Help South Sudan

Author:
Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
he implementation of South Sudan’s latest peace agreement appears to be at a standstill. Insecurity, food shortages and the breakdown in governance have forced more than 1.5 million people to flee the country. President Salva Kiir’s announcement of a forthcoming national dialogue offers some hope. Yet people are divided on the legitimacy of the process: is this a ruse to detract attention from important reforms, or is it an opportunity to finally broaden the political process in South Sudan? External actors, including the African Union (AU), are also at odds with one another. This report looks at how the AU can enhance the prospects for peace in South Sudan.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Food, Reform, Peace, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

63. China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom

Author:
James M Dorsey
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
China’s increasingly significant economic and security interests in the Middle East have several impacts. It affects not only its energy security but also its regional posture, relations with regional powers as well as the United States, and efforts to pacify nationalist and Islamist Uighurs in its north-western province of Xinjiang. Those interests are considerably enhanced by China’s One Belt, One Road initiative that seeks to patch together a Eurasian land mass through inter-linked infrastructure, investment and expanded trade relations. Protecting its mushrooming interests is forcing China to realign its policies and relationships in the region. As it takes stock of the Middle East and North Africa’s volatility and tumultuous, often violent political transitions, China feels the pressure to acknowledge that it no longer can remain aloof to the Middle East and North Africa’s multiple conflicts. China’s long-standing insistence on non-interference in the domestic affairs of others, refusal to envision a foreign military presence and its perseverance that its primary focus is the development of mutually beneficial economic and commercial relations, increasingly falls short of what it needs to do to safeguard its vital interests. Increasingly, China will have to become a regional player in competitive cooperation with the United States, the dominant external actor in the region for the foreseeable future. The pressure to revisit long-standing foreign and defence policy principles is also driven by the fact that China’s key interests in the Middle East and North Africa have expanded significantly beyond the narrow focus of energy despite its dependence on the region for half 1 China has signalled its gradual recognition of these new realities with the publication in January 2016 of an Arab Policy Paper, the country’s first articulation of a policy towards the Middle East and North Africa. But, rather than spelling out specific policies, the paper reiterated the generalities of China’s core focus in its relations with the Arab world: economics, energy, counter-terrorism, security, technical cooperation and its One Belt, One Road initiative. Ultimately however, China will have to develop a strategic vision that outlines foreign and defence policies it needs to put in place to protect its expanding strategic, geopolitical, economic, and commercial interests in the Middle East and North Africa; its role and place in the region as a rising superpower in the region; and its relationship and cooperation with the United States in managing, if not resolving conflict.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Imperialism, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

64. The African Union’s Gender, Peace, and Security Mechanisms: Policy Options for Protecting Women in Conflict

Author:
Hussaina J. Abdullah
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This brief addresses the mechanisms of the African Union (AU) for protecting and promoting women’s rights during conflict and their participation in post- conflict peacebuilding processes. These mechanisms can be found in the policy frameworks and structures of the Protocol Relating to the Establish- ment of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (the PSC Pro- tocol) of 2002, the Protocol to the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights on the Rights of Women in Africa (the Maputo Protocol), adopted in 2003, and the Solemn Declaration on Gender Equality in Africa (SDGEA) of 2004. Other mechanisms include the AU Action Plans on Gender Main- streaming in peace and security, as well as a special rapporteur on women’s rights, appointed in 1999, a special envoy on women, peace, and security, appointed in 2014, and the AU’s Five-Year (2015–2020) Gender, Peace, and Security Programme. While the AU scores high on de jure instruments designed to improve the legal framework for women’s rights and gender equality, the evidence sug- gests less progress in terms of the de facto practices directed toward their implementation. For example, the Maputo Protocol—the African Women’s Bill of Rights—whose full ratification and enforcement were envisaged by 2015 and its domestication by 2020—has not been ratified by fourteen member states,2 and two countries, Botswana and Egypt, have not even signed the in- strument. Even some of the countries that ratified it did so with reservations. Furthermore, while member states are also expected to send biennial reports on the implementation processes in their respective countries, only Malawi had complied with this provision as of December 2015. And although the protocol demands the protection of women against violence in war and in peace times, reports indicate the continued perpetration with impunity of sexual- and gender-based violence (SGBV) against women in conflict-affected settings. The PSC protocol, the normative framework on which the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA)4 is based, recognizes the need to protect women from violence in conflict-affected areas, but in doing so it makes them appear as mostly passive victims of war. An approach is needed that recognizes women can be perpetrators of violence as well as agents of change pro- moting peace and reconciliation. The integration of an all-encompassing organizational gender strategy to guide the AU’s work in conflict and post-conflict situations will strengthen effectiveness in conflict-affected societies with regard to the women, peace, and security (WPS) goals of participation in post-conflict governance; protec- tion from SGBV and acts of impunity; prevention of the abuse of women, girls, and children; and the promotion of gender equality. The mandate of the AU’s special envoy on WPS to “ensure that the voices of women and the vulnerable are heard much more in peacebuilding and in conflict resolu- tion” is both timely and relevant. Priority should be given to coordinating mechanisms for an Africa-centered gen- der, peace, and security framework and to promoting synergies among women’s organizations, national gov- ernments, and peace support operations to ensure the implementation of actions that make a difference in the lives of women in conflict-affected countries. The spe- cial envoy should also engage closely with stakeholders to ensure full domestication of the Maputo Protocol is achieved by 2020. In sum, although the AU has made some progress in establishing a gender, peace, and security framework to ensure the protection of women’s rights and promote gen- der equality in conflict and post-conflict settings, some gaps and coordination challenges continue to limit its ef- fectiveness. Gender mainstreaming mechanisms across the peace and security sector, including capacity building initiatives, need to be addressed critically to prevent the continued violation of women’s physical and bodily integ- rity in conflict-affected and post-conflict countries.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Peace, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

65. Is UNSCR 1325 Empowering African Women to Negotiate? Peace Insights and Policy Options

Author:
Pamela Machakanja
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Africa faces formidable challenges with regard to the relatively few women influencing decisions and policies related to peace and security. A study on women’s participation in thirty-one peace processes between 1992 and 2011 showed that of the fifteen African countries, only five had women on their ne- gotiating teams (Burundi, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, and Uganda); five had women witnesses or observers ( Liberia, Si- erra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda); two had women lead mediators (DRC and Kenya); and only one (DRC) had women signatories.1 Although UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1325 “reaffirms the important role of women in the prevention and resolution of conflicts, peace negotiations, peace-building, peacekeeping, humanitarian response and in post-conflict reconstruction and stresses the importance of their equal participation and full involvement in all efforts for the maintenance and promotion of peace and security,”2 its full implementation remains a work in progress in Africa, as women’s participation in peace and security remains more symbolic than substantive, and their capacity to influence and engage in peace negotiations is often resisted by local cultural norms and patriarchal hierarchies.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Culture, Feminism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa

66. Building a New Foundation for Stability in Libya

Author:
William Danvers
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
For almost five years, Libyans have struggled to build a new political order for their country out of the wreckage left by Moammar Gadhafi’s four-decade dictatorship. Despite successful national elections in July 2012, political factions backed by various militias have sought power at the expense of their rivals. As a result, Libya’s oil production and, consequently, its economy have collapsed along with any semblance of a post-Gadhafi political order. This violent struggle for power has created a security vacuum, filled in part by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, and various Al Qaeda-linked terrorist groups, such as Ansar al-Sharia. In the past year, Libya has become a strategic location for ISIS. Due to coalition military pressure, the group has told recruits to head for Sirte in Libya rather than stay in Syria or Iraq. The growing presence of ISIS in Libya—now estimated to total as many as 6,500 fighters—represents a direct security threat to the United States and its allies in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Topic:
Security, ISIS, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Libya, and North America

67. Next Steps in Libya

Author:
William Danvers
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
The alarming security, economic, and political trends in Libya are currently a critical issue for the international community. Europeans are particularly concerned about Libya as a point of departure for refugees and migrants. Despite recent progress, the presence of the Islamic State, or IS, in Libya is also an urgent security issue for the country, as well as for the United States, Europe, and Libya’s neighbors. At the same time, Libya is struggling to unify its government. Libya’s downward economic spiral further complicates the possibility of a unified government and a more stable Libya. Libya’s problems are legion, but establishing a single government and creating a more secure environment are the first orders of business. The Government of National Accord, or GNA—a body that reflects an agreement made last December with the help of the United Nations—has begun to establish itself in Tripoli and is trying to incorporate two opposing Libyan governments, which have been fighting each other since 2014. These are the Islamist-led Libya Dawn coalition—also known as the General National Congress, or GNC, which controls Tripoli and the eastern government in Tobruk—and the House of Representatives, or HoR, backed by retired Libyan Gen. Khalifa Hiftar and Operation Dignity. The GNA is working to establish a new government and taking immediate steps to improve conditions. While Libya has made progress in fighting IS over the past few months, the threat remains as long as IS leadership views Libya as a way to extend its caliphate—an Islamic state led by a caliph, a successor to the Prophet Muhammad. This is particularly true in light of recent setbacks for IS in Syria and Iraq. If the international community wants to help Libya rebuild, it needs to have a plan that outlines how it will assist Libya with its economy and the development of institutions that can provide the foundation for a revitalized nation. It is clear that having a functioning, unified government and making Libya significantly more secure is necessary to implement efforts to help Libya rebuild its economy and government. Indeed, a blueprint for such efforts could be an important incentive for the Libyan people to coalesce around a government and a unified approach to security. As President Barack Obama famously said in a press interview earlier this year, his biggest “mistake” was not having a plan to help Libya after the fall of Prime Minister Moammar Gadhafi. But it is not too late to develop plans to put Libya on a path that offers promise rather than chaos.
Topic:
Security, Islamic State, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and North Africa

68. Towards a Continental Strategy for Countering Violent Extremism in Africa

Author:
Tarek A. Sharif and Joanne Richards
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
Violent Extremism is now recognized as a growing threat to peace and security in Africa, as exemplified by the recent terrorist attacks in Garissa, Abidjan, and Ouagadougou. While much of the policy discussion on Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) focuses on the return of radicalized foreign fighters to the West, less attention is directed to those foreign fighters who may eventually return from Iraq, Syria, and Libya to other areas of North Africa, the Maghreb, and the Horn of Africa. Tunisia is one of the world’s largest contributors to the Islamic State in terms of foreign fighters, with smaller contributions from Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Sudan and Somalia. Issues concerning the return of foreign fighters to Africa are particularly salient not only because these individuals may return to their communities, but also because they may link up with other extremist armed groups present across the continent. These include groups affiliated to either al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, such as Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Attempts to counter violent extremism began in Europe in the 1980s with the advent of programs to dissuade and disengage right-wing extremists in Norway, Sweden and Germany. Although no common definition exists, since that time CVE has come to be associated with a range of measures designed to prevent and reverse the radicalization of individuals and groups, and to forestall the participation of these groups and “lone wolves” in acts of terrorism. Given that CVE is preventative and reactive, different CVE strategies are necessary for different stages of the radicalization continuum, including for individuals and communities with no exposure to extremist networks, those with some exposure, and those already radicalized. The latter is often associated with attempts to shift extremists towards acceptance of more moderate ideologies and is known as “deradicalization.” In some ways, CVE is difficult to distinguish from conventional counter-terrorism, which often includes traditional military measures and the sharing of intelligence between nation states. However, because conventional counter-terrorism does not address the root causes prompting radicalization, policy interventions under the rubric of CVE have more recently been designed to focus attention on the grassroots factors, which may render certain individuals more susceptible to radicalization than others. Social exclusion, poverty, and a lack of education are often named as typical contenders in this regard, although CVE practitioners generally acknowledge that no single causal pathway to radicalization can be identified. Reflecting these general trends, this essay charts the development of African Union policy, from its roots in conventional counter-terrorism, to efforts to devise a continental strategy for CVE in Africa. It also outlines a number of policy measures, which any such continental strategy should take into account.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Libya, Syria, Morocco, and Somalia

69. A Fresh Analysis of the Humanitarian System in Somaliland, Puntland and South Central Somalia: Somali state agencies and local organisations' capacities to manage humanitarian action

Author:
Fernando Almansa
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In Somaliland, Puntland and South Central Somalia, the International Community is mixing its political interests with its humanitarian agenda. Insecurity severely hampers access in many parts, making it difficult to implement and monitor humanitarian responses. International humanitarian actors need to revisit their strategies and invest more in working with local agencies to deliver aid. Local humanitarian actors need to take courageous humanitarian leadership with full accountability and transparency. Many international donors often appear to give priority to broader security agendas and the need for transparency over humanitarian action to save lives. This report assesses the capacity of local humanitarian actors to deliver humanitarian aid in response to the repeated crises that the country faces. It is the starting point of an Oxfam project to build the strength of local humanitarian actors to deliver effective humanitarian responses.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Transparency, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, Puntland, and Somaliland

70. Toward a Community of Practice: ECOWAS and Peace and Security Policy Communities in West Africa

Author:
Olawake Ismail
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was established in 1975 and has since evolved into a robust subregional group promoting economic integration across its members in several spheres, including commerce, transportation and telecommunications, energy and agriculture, monetary and financial policies, and peace and security.1 To fulfill objectives in these fields, ECOWAS established decision-making structures and policy development processes that include the Authority of Heads of State and Gov- ernment (AHSG); Council of Ministers (COM); a Community Court of Justice; an Executive Secretariat and Parliament; and other specialized commis- sions. The existence of these principal units notwithstanding, the ECOWAS decision-making and policy development process integrates other interven- ing variables that feed into the different channels of policy formulation and incidentally guide the trajectory along which policies emerge. This analysis focuses on ECOWAS’s nuanced (and complex) decision-making process as it relates to peace and security issues and the extent to which peace and security policy communities (including training and research institutions, academic and technical experts, and civil society activists) are engaged. The analysis is, unfortunately, limited by the absence of open source materials on the subject. While the literature on peace and security in West Africa—including the role of ECOWAS and reviews of its peace operations in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, and Côte d’Ivoire—is extensive,3 little or no research and few publications are extant on ECOWAS’s institu- tional setting and its process for developing peace and security policy. The little available information includes that contained in ECOWAS’s website and fleeting mention and reference in a few publications. This discussion relies instead on the author’s more than ten years of studying, observing, and engaging in ECOWAS activities (including participation in policy-related workshops, seminars, and conferences), knowledge of peace and security issues in West Africa, and interviews and informal discussions with serving and former ECOWAS staff and experts on West Africa’s peace and security.
Topic:
Security, Peace, Economic Cooperation, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

71. Moving beyond a Donor-Recipient Relationship? Assessing Partnership in the Joint Africa-EU Strategy

Author:
Karen del Biondo
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The Joint Africa-EU Strategy (JAES), which was adopted in 2007, aimed to break with the traditional do¬nor-recipient relationship between the EU and Africa and to develop a true partnership. The concept of partnership has been central in EU-Africa relations ever since the Lomé Agreement (1975), but many have argued that it has been eroded by conditionalities and the end of special trade preferences. Ideally, a partnership is characterized by shared values, equality and trust, but are these principles reflected in the JAES? This study investigates this question by focusing on the thematic partnerships on peace and security and democratic governance and human rights. The paper argues that, despite the power asymmetries between the EU and Africa, the JAES has been characterized by equality in decision-making and by African ownership in capacity-building. However, while the JAES may objectively be based on shared values, the EU and the AU have often differed on how to apply those values in concrete situations, more particularly on the question which type of intervention is acceptable (conditionality, military intervention, etc.). Moreover, the analysis identifies a general feeling of mistrust amongst both parties in the partnership.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

72. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (III): Revisiting the Niger Delta

Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances. With the costly Presidential Amnesty Program for ex-insurgents due to end in a few months, there are increasingly bitter complaints in the region that chronic poverty and catastrophic oil pollution, which fuelled the earlier rebellion, remain largely unaddressed. Since Goodluck Jonathan, the first president from the Delta, lost re-election in March, some activists have resumed agitation for greater resource control and self-determination, and a number of ex-militant leaders are threatening to resume fighting (“return to the creeks”). While the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East is the paramount security challenge, President Muhammadu Buhari rightly identifies the Delta as a priority. He needs to act firmly but carefully to wind down the amnesty program gradually, revamp development and environmental programs, facilitate passage of the long-stalled Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and improve security and rule of law across the region.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Development, Environment, Oil, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

73. Mali :réformer ou rechuter

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Un an après l'intervention française, l'intégrité territoriale et l'ordre constitutionnel ont été rétablis au Mali. Mais la persistance des tensions intercommunautaires et de violences localisées témoigne d'une stabilisation encore précaire du Nord, alors que les forces françaises et onusiennes peinent à consolider leurs progrès en matière de sécurité. Les attentes à l'égard du président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta sont immenses. Il doit à la fois élaborer un compromis sur le devenir du Nord et engager la réforme d'un Etat affaibli par la crise. Son gouvernement doit aller au-delà des déclarations d'intention et passer à l'action. Pour consolider la situation à court terme, il est tenté de renouer avec un système clientéliste qui a conduit les précédents régimes dans l'impasse. Le président ne peut certes pas tout réformer brusquement mais l'urgence de la stabilisation ne doit ni faire manquer l'occasion d'entamer une réforme profonde de la gouvernance ni occulter la nécessité d'un dialogue véritablement inclusif sur l'avenir du pays.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

74. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

75. Afrique centrale : les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La pénétration du pastoralisme qui s'accentue depuis plusieurs années en Afrique centrale génère des conflits à la fois fréquents et ignorés dans un monde rural où l'empreinte de l'Etat est particulièrement faible. Ces conflits s'intensifient sous l'effet conjugué de plusieurs facteurs: l'insécurité croissante, le changement climatique qui pousse les pasteurs toujours plus au sud, l'éclatement des couloirs traditionnels de transhumance, notamment transfrontaliers, l'extension des cultures et l'augmentation des cheptels qui entrainent une compétition accrue sur les ressources naturelles. Même si les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme ne sont pas de même intensité dans les trois pays étudiés dans ce rapport (Tchad, République centrafricaine et République démocratique du Congo), ils ont deux dénominateurs communs : l'impératif d'une prise en compte de ce problème par les pouvoirs publics et la nécessité d'une régulation de la transhumance qui inclue les différents acteurs concernés.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa

76. The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab

Author:
Matt Bryden
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The September 2013 attack on Nairobi's Westgate Shopping Center, which left more than 70 people dead, has positioned the Somali extremist group, Al-Shabaab, firmly in the global spotlight. While some observers have interpreted the attack as a sign of "desperation," others perceive it as an indication of Al-Shabaab's reformation and resurgence under the leadership of the movement's Amir, Ahmed Abdi aw Mohamud Godane. The reality is, as usual, more complex. Westgate provided a glimpse of a movement in the throes of a protracted, fitful, and often-violent transition: Al-shabaab is in the process of reinventing itself.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa

77. A Cosmetic End to Madagascar's Crisis?

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Madagascar is on the cusp of exiting a five-year political crisis compounded by economic disorder and international isolation. Presidential elections in late 2013 were endorsed as credible following the victory of Hery Rajaonarimampianina. The return to democracy paves the way for renewed international support. However, division entrenched by former President Marc Ravalomanana's exile has polarised the country. The coup regime of Andry Rajoelina was characterised by socio-economic malaise, rampant corruption, institutional decay and the breakdown in the rule of law. The political system, which is the primary obstacle to sustained recovery, needs much more than a cosmetic makeover; fundamental reform is necessary. The African Union, Southern African Development Community and International Support Group for Madagascar must support Rajaonarimampianina's efforts to balance political interests in a marked departure from the traditional winner-take-all approach; reform and strengthening of key democratic institutions; and reform and professionalisation of the security sector.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Tamil Nadu

78. A Sign of Things to Come? Examining four major climate-related disasters, 2010–2013, and their impacts on food security

Author:
Coghlan Christopher, Muzammil Maliha, Ingram John, Vervoort Joost, Otto Friederike, and James Rachel
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
From 2010 to 2013 the world experienced a number of extreme weather events, several of which were notable for their intensity, duration, and impacts on livelihoods and food security. This report focuses on four case studies – a heat wave in Russia, flooding in Pakistan, drought in East Africa, and a typhoon in the Philippines – that represent a range of extreme weather. It analyses the impact of these extreme weather events on food security, by considering when and why threats emerge. This involves characterization of the weather events, examination of the vulnerable groups affected, and analysis of livelihoods and the role of governance and capital.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, Russia, and Philippines

79. New Report Examines East Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development

Author:
Solomon Dersso
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda with its secretariat headquartered in Djibouti, covers northeast Africa, a region continuing to experience major changes, arguably more than any other part of the continent. This is the only region of Africa where colonially drawn borders have been redrawn. In contrast to other regions of Africa, this is also where the prospect of further redrawing of borders—with Somaliland seeking international recognition as a separate state—remains a real possibility.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Economics, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

80. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria