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21. The European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic: An Assessment

Author:
Annelies Hickendorff and Igor Acko
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This SIPRI Background Paper provides an overview of the European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic (EUTM RCA) and assesses its impact on the country’s conflict dynamics since it was established in 2016. The second of three country-specific papers, it is part of a larger SIPRI project analysing the effectiveness of the EU’s training missions in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Mali. All three papers will feed into a synthesis paper that will offer a comparative analysis of the missions and recommendations for the way forward. This paper analyses EUTM RCA’s main training and advisory activities, before assessing its political and operational impacts. It summarizes the main factors that account for the mission’s successes and limitations, and makes five recommendations to augment the future impact of the mission. It concludes that EUTM RCA has made an impact in terms of military capacity building and assistance to the national Ministry of Defence, but so far there has been little tangible progress in terms of structural reform of the defence sector or the transformation of the armed forces. In addition, EUTM RCA faces many obstacles that lie largely beyond its control. The main challenges of lack of national ownership and limited political engagement cannot be addressed with technical solutions alone.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, European Union, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

22. Egyptian Mediation between Israel and Hamas Can Be Useful

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For the first time in 13 years, an Israeli foreign minister (Gabi Ashkenazi, a former Chief of Staff of the IDF) has visited Egypt for talks with his Egyptian counterpart (Sameh Shukri). At the same time, the head of Egyptian Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, landed in Israel to discuss the situation regarding Gaza with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gantz. Both visits are parts of a bid by President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi to take the lead in stabilizing the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and managing the next steps in the broader Israeli-Palestinian context. Egypt has already benefitted from this. The initiative broke the ice between Sisi and the Biden Administration. Israel, stands to gain, as well. Unlike their predecessors, Sisi and Shukri have welcomed the Abraham Accords. Israel and Egypt have common interests in the eastern Mediterranean. And the Egyptians, for their own reasons, do not trust Hamas. Still, Israel is entitled to insist that as mediators, the Egyptians should keep Jerusalem off the table. It would be dangerous for many in the region were Hamas to gain a strategic foothold there. Israel also should insist on a swift release of its citizens held by Hamas and the return of the bodies of dead soldiers held since 2014. Additionally, it would be useful for the Egyptian government to curb the coarse anti-Israeli and often antisemitic discourse in its state-owned media and the Egyptian public domain, which acts to constrain Cairo’s options.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

23. Great Expectations: Defining A Trans-Mediterranean Cybersecurity Agenda

Author:
Patryk Pawlak
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
European Union (EU) cooperation on cybersecurity with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is conditioned by two competing claims. Due to the geographical proximity and broad security implications for the EU, the MENA region is one of the priorities of the EU’s external relations. Over the past two decades, and especially after the Arab Spring, the EU has invested significant resources to support the reforms in the region and align its policies with its own. At the same time, however, this ambition to cooperate closely with the region is often made more complicated by the situation on the ground. This is particularly the case of cyber resilience cooperation, where even despite overlapping interests – like the fight against cybercrime or improving the overall level of cybersecurity – the EU needs to exercise enhanced due diligence in order to avoid undermining the already fragile human rights protection in some of those countries. Reconciling these two elements – the willingness to engage in closer cooperation and the need for a cautious approach to cybersecurity cooperation – remains the key challenge. Against this background, the study aims to address two questions. First, to what extent are different initiatives and policies implemented across the region compatible with the EU’s own interests and values? Second, who are the key multipliers on cybersecurity in the region that could potentially align with the EU in certain aspects and help it achieve its policy objectives? Which of these relationships are mature enough or require further work in order to turn into concrete cooperation initiatives? These two sets of questions guide the discussion in each of the chapters.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

24. Mali and the Challenges of Democratic Rule: Implications for Continental Democracy

Author:
Peter SAKWE MASUMBE
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Development-oriented public policies and governances within African countries are at extensive peril as African soldiers become zealots and threats to political power. As Klatt (2021) asserts, “…two hundred and eighty days appear to be the time a banana’s flowering stalk needs to produce fruits”. Paradoxically, it is the time it took Malians to live within a first coup d’état from August 2020 to a second one in May 2021. Consequently, the AU, ECOWAS, SADC must take definite actions to avert military and undemocratic incursions into political power. This is the position of this policy brief. Exasperated policy pundits had crafted parlances for what happened on May 25, 2021, in Bamako, when former coup leader Colonel Assimi Goita re-took Mali’s destiny into his own hands again by overthrowing the Transition President and Prime Minister. Is he a power zealot, a nationalist, or a sheer adventurer? Irrespective of the exigencies and necessities, democracy is at peril in that country, and by extension, the continent. Ostensibly, the developments in that Sahel country, with its poverty index and human insecurity, sounding astronomically frightful (Kelechi 2021), Ugoh 2021), present a great leeway for soldiers in other countries to interrupt the growth of democracy. No matter the benevolence of military rule, a lame civilian regime incarnates some degree of democracy; consequently, Mali is at its undemocratic intersections, with a doubtful democratic certainty.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Military Strategy, Governance, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

25. The Challenges of Governance, Development and Security in the Central Regions of Mali

Author:
Mamadou Bodian, Aurélien Tobie, and Myriam Marending
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Since 2015 Mali’s central regions of Mopti and Ségou have become insecure hotspots at the confluence of interconnected challenges in terms of governance, development and security. Although international interventions involving a full range of actors and sectors are being increasingly reoriented towards these regions, the sustainability of the responses depends on their ability to draw on the needs and priorities of local communities. This SIPRI Insights is based on a study that combines both quantitative and qualitative data to provide an evidence-based analysis of local perspectives in Mopti and Ségou. It highlights how the people there understand and respond to the governance, development and security challenges they face.
Topic:
Security, Development, Governance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Mali and Africa

26. Ethiopia’s Transition: Implications for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region

Author:
Jason Mosley
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. Ethiopia’s transition has affected its relations in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security since 2015, contributing to a major diplomatic rift with Qatar since 2017. Elucidating how states in the Horn of Africa are affected by and responding to external influences largely hinges on understanding the Ethiopian transition. The implications for the future of regional integration in the Horn of Africa must also be considered.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa

27. Stability in the time of COVID-19: implications for the Sahel

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Since the early 2010s, increased volatility in the Sahel has aroused widespread concern, spurring the establishment of regional and international groupings to deal with the many security and governance challenges that have undermined stability in the region. Among those efforts were the creation of the G5 Sahel cooperation framework (2014), the G5 Sahel Joint Force (2017), the Sahel Alliance (2017) – and more recently, in June 2020, the International Coalition for the Sahel, to tackle instability in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Those five countries are the focus of this paper.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, and Burkina Faso

28. Egypt after the Coronavirus: Back to Square One

Author:
Ishac Diwan, Nadim Houry, and Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Egypt’s recent security and macro-economic stabilization has been built on weak foundations and Covid-19 has further exposed this fragility. Egypt is now back to a situation broadly similar to that before the 2011 revolution: stable on the surface, but with deep structural problems and simmering social grievances, and little buffers to mitigate them. This paper argues for a major shift in the ways the country is currently governed in favour of greater openness in politics and markets, and for the international community to seriously engage Egypt on the need to reform economically and politically.
Topic:
Security, Arab Spring, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

29. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa

Author:
Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

30. Paris, Algiers Concerned over Mali’s Transitional Regime

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses the regional and international challenges facing Mali's new transitional government, and its precarious security situation. Can Mali’s new government regain territorial control and restore personal security? For the past four months, Mali has been governed by a transition government that was set up after a military coup d’état in the summer of 2020. The international community initially condemned the coup, but it has since been forced to accept this reality, and has been encouraging Mali’s military and the transition government to advance the implementation of the 2015 Algiers peace accords. Yet actions taken so far by the military and the new regime do not bode well for the future of the country, and are showing signs of weakness vis-à-vis a multitude of armed groups, including several jihadi militant organizations.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali

31. Ordinary Shareholders' Rights Protection in Botswana

Author:
Ratang Sedimo and Kelesego Mmolainyane
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This study seeks to examine institutional frameworks that exist in Botswana to protect the rights of ordinary shareholders. There is no literature on the subject matter in the context of Botswana; hence this study attempts to fill in the literature gap. The study uses a variety of data collection methods, such as semi-structured interviews, the Choppies case study and lessons learnt from other jurisdictions. Findings reveal that ordinary shareholders’ rights protection involves the use of institutional frameworks. In Botswana, existing frameworks are not adequate to protect ordinary shareholders’ rights. Furthermore, the study shows that ordinary shareholders in Botswana are mainly exposed to risks of losing their investments, partially or entirely, in case of non-compliance to regulatory requirements as shown by the reduction in Choppies’ stock price from P1.20 to P0.40 between years 2012 and 2018. The study suggests that the existing institutional frameworks should be reviewed to ensure adequate protection of ordinary shareholders’ rights.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Human Rights, Investment, Macroeconomics, Land Rights, and Labor Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

32. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:

Author:
Emadeddin Badi
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

33. Egypt-Jordan-Iraq: Another Middle East Axis in the Making?

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan seek to develop a regional bloc in the geographical center of the Arab world. But all three countries are poor and dependent in for economic largesse on more wealthy partners, so their regional aspirations and strategies will necessarily be limited.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

34. The Foreign Military Presence in the Horn of Africa Region

Author:
Neil J. Melvin
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The Horn of Africa is undergoing far-reaching changes in its external security environment. A wide variety of international security actors—from Europe, the United States, the Middle East, the Gulf and Asia—are currently operating in the region. As a result, the Horn of Africa has experienced a proliferation of foreign military bases and a build-up of naval forces. The external militarization of the Horn poses major questions for the future security and stability of the region. This SIPRI Background Paper is the first of three papers devoted to the new external security politics of the Horn of Africa. The paper maps the growth of foreign military forces in and around the Horn over the past two decades. The other two papers in this series are ‘The New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, April 2019) and ‘Managing the New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Policy Brief, April 2019).
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa

35. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Somalia

Author:
Karolina Eklöw and Florian Krampe
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Climate-related security risks are transforming the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts take place. This policy paper offers a glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the time of climate change by providing an in-depth assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). Climate-related change in Somalia has reduced livelihood options and caused migration. It has also left significant parts of the population in a vulnerable condition. These climate-related security risks contribute to grievances and increase inequality and fragility, which in turn pose challenges to the implementation of UNSOM’s mandate. The impacts of climate change have hindered UNSOM in its work to provide peace and security in Somalia and in its efforts to establish functioning governance and judicial systems. UNSOM has responded to the growing impact of climate-related change. It has learned lessons from previous failed responses—notably the 2011 drought—and has created innovative initiatives that have been effective. While there is still room for improvement, UNSOM’s new initiatives may help to deliver a set of responses that meet the short-term need for a rapid humanitarian response and the long-term objective of achieving a sustainable and resilient society. The challenges faced by UNSOM and its responses to them have wider implications. They suggest that there is a need for synergetic policy responses that can turn the responses to climate-related security risks into opportunities for UN efforts to sustain peace.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Migration, Governance, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

36. Returnees in the Maghreb: Comparing Policies on Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia

Author:
Thomas Renard
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The conflict in Syria and Iraq has mobilised an unprecedented number of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs). More than 50,000 individuals travelled to the Levant to join jihadi groups. While fighters have flocked from virtually every corner of the world, a significant contingent came from North Africa. This has created an unprecedented challenge for individual countries, as well as for the broader Maghreb and Mediter- ranean regions. The ‘Caliphate’ has now been defeated with the loss of its remaining territories. While many people were killed, thousands of fighters and family members are either in detention in Syria or in Iraq – or still on the run. Authorities worldwide are contem- plating – or should be contemplating – the possible return of these fighters in the short to medium term and how to deal with them. In fact, more than a thousand North African fighters have already returned home since 2012. Following this unprecedented number of jihadi volunteers, countries must now handle an unprecedented number of jihadi veterans who present a multi-faceted security and societal challenge from prosecution to detention and rehabilitation. Arguably, whether they return or not, some of these fighters are likely to have a lasting effect on the global jihadi movement and on local dynamics in their country of origin. As highlighted in this report, history is a reminder that even small numbers of veteran fighters can have a significant impact on local, regional and global security. There has been a growing amount of research into (returning) foreign fighters recently.1 This research was needed to better understand the phenomenon, either in general terms or at a country-specific level. Most of this research focused on departures rather than returns, and it focused often more on the individual dynamics and motivations rather than on governments’ debates and responses. Yet, as most governments still grapple with returnees, it is important to look into governments’ responses, with a view to opening a discussion and possibly making some recom- mendations. In this report, we have therefore decided to focus on governments’ responses to the issue of returning foreign fighters in North Africa, in light of the unprecedented regional mobilisation. Tunisia, notably, has often been described as the largest provider of foreign fighters to the Levant, or certainly one of its top purveyors. Egypt and Morocco have also seen a significant mobilisation for jihad, justifying their inclu- sion in our study. We offer a comparative analysis of the situation in these three North African countries: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Such an approach, using similar guidelines for all contributing authors, allows for interesting comparisons between the circum- stances that led to the departure of fighters and the responses to dealing with their return. Contributors were asked to look into domestic perceptions and debates related to the threat from returnees, and the specific policies developed to handle them. They were also asked to compare current perceptions and responses with previous jihadi mobilisations.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

37. Security Forces’ Strategies of Resistance to Transitional Justice

Author:
Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Security forces are key actors in transitional justice, with the ability to hamper or upend the process. While concerns have often centred on their possible violent responses to transitional justice, security forces are generally more likely to mobilise more discrete forms of resistance. Drawing on transitional justice experiences in Brazil, Chile, Sierra Leone and Uganda this policy brief identifies six types of resistance strategies used by security forces: threatening violence, obstructionism, de-legitimation, strategic cooperation, disengagement and appropriation. It also examines which contextual factors may influence which strategies the security forces are more likely to pursue.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Violence, and Justice
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Brazil, South America, Sierra Leone, and Chile

38. Situating Security Sector Reforms in Kenya’s Discourse on Inclusion and National Dialogue Process

Author:
Christopher Gitari
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This paper explores political exclusion in Kenya and its consequences on the social fabric of the nation. It draws from past governmental reports and analysis to formulate new recommendations that can inform current discourse. It first provides an overview of ethnicity in Kenya. It then describes experiences of exclusion by minority groups, as well as state responses to exclusion. Finally, it looks at efforts to reform the security sector. It closes by offering some general guiding principles and recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Transitional Justice, Participation, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

39. Reforming Kenya’s Security Sector: Policing Culture and Youth

Author:
Agatha Ndonga
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Between April 15 and May 3, 2019, ICTJ held a number of consultations with Kenyan youth from several informal settlements in Nairobi and Mombasa to reflect on their understanding of security sector reforms and their connection to the ongoing national dialogue process, particularly as it relates to inclusion. This briefing paper presents the key issues of concern raised by these young people and based on them offers recommendations for reforming the policing culture in Kenya.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Youth Culture, Culture, Reform, and Youth
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

40. Refuges: Benediction or Curse To Cameroon's Economy, 1982-2017

Author:
D. N. Keming
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
The present study focuses on the contribution of refugees to the growth of Cameroon’s economy. Its focus spanned from 1982 when the UNHCR country office was officially established to 2017 with the collapse of Boko Haram’s pressure on Cameroon. It assesses the benefits and liabilities of refugees to Cameroon’s economy within the time frame. This is experimented through the size of the refugee population, capital transfer, employment opportunities, commerce, and the agriculture industry. These themes were arrived at with the help of primary, secondary, and tertiary data; and construed with mixed methodologies. The work reveals that on a comparative score, refugees are largely a blessing than a curse to the economy of Cameroon. In spite of their constructive role, they also constitute, to a negligible extent, liabilities to the development of Cameroon. The paper therefore argue that refugees should seize to be seen as burdens, but rather as powerful economic actors if properly exploited by recipient countries. Although they may constitute major security and social problems like theft, robbery, population explosion and health challenges, they are manageable. Besides, even without refugees, no country is devoid of security and social challenges.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Refugee Issues, Refugees, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon