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82. Monetary Policy in the CFA Zone: Country-level Credit Policy
- Author:
- Anja Shortland and David Stasavage
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines whether the BCEAO has made use of the various policy instruments at its disposal for steering credit in the individual CFA zone member countries to complement interest rate policy at the zone level. We estimate whether private sector credit has responded systematically to different monetary policy variables using iterated 3-stage least squares regressions for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal and Togo. If we constrain the coefficient estimates there is some support for the hypothesis that the BCEAO has contracted private sector credit in response to a higher inflation differential with France. However, there seems to be no policy rule to restrict private sector credit in response to increasing government borrowing from the central bank or increased foreign borrowing. If the coefficient estimates are unconstrained, there does not appear to be any systematic policy to control credit expansion at the domestic level.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and France
83. The Costs and Benefits Analysis of CFA Membership: The Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime for the CFA Countries Zone
- Author:
- Mireille Linjouom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper determines an analytical framework defining the choice of an optimal exchange rate regime for a typical CFA country. The policymakers behave strategically to decide to adopt alternative exchange rate regime by minimizing their loss function under specific constraints like economic characteristics and political consideration. One concludes a CFA economy with less inflationary propensity and greater external shocks volatility will tend to select a flexible exchange rate regime. Moreover, the model suggests that a CFA country with a more unstable political system and a higher propensity to apply inflationary policies will prefer a flexible arrangement than a fixed one.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
84. An Aggregate View of Macroeconomic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Study Using Innovation Accounting
- Author:
- Simeon Coleman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the impacts and responses of macroeconomic shocks in some domestic economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1961-99; more specifically, it seeks to answer the question of whether there are any systematic differences in the responses of the CFA franc zones and the non-CFA franc zone countries to macroeconomic shocks. Based on the Blanchard-Quah methodology, we identify shocks to the changes in real exchange rate and output using a structural VAR (SVAR) model for these small open economies. Our finding that the real exchange rate innovations in the CFA franc zones are largely independent of domestic variables suggests that external influence is more important in the CFA zones. There is also some evidence that money demand shocks are more significant in the non-CFA franc zone countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
85. Economic Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty: Time-series and Cross-country Evidence from the CFA-zone Countries of sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Michael Bleaney and Akira Nishiyama
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The causes of the slow growth of CFA countries are investigated. There is little difference in this respect between the CFA and other sub-Saharan African countries. Since 1970, GDP growth in the CFA countries has shown no significant trend but one or two medium-term fluctuations (positive in 1979-83 and negative in 1989-93). Internationally, the income share of the poorest 20 per cent of the population of any country has improved most in poor countries, and there is no evidence that this does not apply to CFA countries also.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
86. How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Poor? Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union
- Author:
- David Fielding
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) has a history of monetary stability and low inflation. Nevertheless, there is substantial variation in relative prices within some UEMOA countries, in particular in the price of food relative to other elements of the retail price index (IHPC). Using monthly time-series data for cities within the region, we analyze the impact of changes in monetary policy instruments on the relative prices of components of the IHPC. We are then able to explore how the burden of monetary policy innovations is likely to be shared between the rich and poor.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
87. Access to ARV Treatment - Aid, Trade and Governance in Uganda
- Author:
- Lisa Ann Richey and Stine Jessen Haakonsson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Access to antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) for AIDS treatment creates a field binding local and global governance. Local modalities of AIDS treatment are governed by the context of global trade through the implementation of patents on medicines in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and within the context of global aid through development assistance. While industrialized countries, on the one hand, set aside donations to fight AIDS in developing countries, on the other hand, the same countries use the WTO to prevent developing countries from accessing cheap medicines. Uganda's success in reducing HIV prevalence is unique among African states, and it is considered the most promising candidate for effectively "scaling up" ARV treatment on the basis of its history of dealing with the pandemic. Yet, despite the many interventions addressing HIV/AIDS and dramatic price reductions of ARVs, only a minority of the infected population is currently receiving treatment, and promises of universal coverage for all who need it seem unrealistic. Our paper examines how the disconnect between international and national priorities on the one hand, and between aid and trade on the other, are currently affecting access to ARVs in Uganda. In spite of the political discourse of equality in treatment, the realities of funding suggest the difficult choices will be made from the level of policy to that of individual. Thus, global governance of trade and of aid will both shape and rely on individuals in charge of "implementation" which must be examined outside the sanitizing context of development discourse. We introduce our use of governance in this paper, and then discuss the global governance of aid to AIDS and global governance of trade and AIDS. The second half of the paper examines the Ugandan case study beginning with a political background and examination of aids policy, followed by the history of ARV provision and advocacy for ARVs, a discussion of the national health system and then aid initiatives and trade of ARVs in Uganda. Finally, we draw preliminary conclusions from our case on the conflicts between global and local governance of trade and aid to AIDS.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
88. Regional or National Poverty Lines? The Case of Uganda in the 1990s
- Author:
- Simon Appleton
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Absolute poverty lines are often derived from the cost of obtaining sufficient calories. Where staples vary across regions, such poverty lines may differ depending on whether they are set using national or regional food baskets. Regional poverty lines are open to the objection that they may be contaminated by income effects. This paper explores this issue by focussing on Uganda, a country where widening spatial inequalities in the 1990s have caused concern. Conflicting results from earlier studies have suggested that the spatial pattern of poverty in Uganda is very sensitive to whether national or regional food baskets are used in setting poverty lines. We confirm this suggestion by comparing the spatial profile of poverty in 1993 using national and regional poverty lines. However, since the regions consuming the more expensive staple sources of calories are also those with higher incomes, using simple regional poverty lines is problematic. Instead, a method of setting regional poverty lines is considered that adjusts for income differentials between regions. Even with this adjustment, the use of regional food baskets implies a markedly different.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
89. Which Types of Aid Have the Most Impact?
- Author:
- George Mavrotas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper uses an aid disaggregation approach to examine the impact of different types of aid on the fiscal sector of the aid-recipient country. It uses time-series data on different types of aid (project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid) for Uganda, an important aid recipient in recent years, to estimate a model of fiscal response in the presence of aid which combines aid disaggregation and endogenous aid. The empirical findings clearly suggest the importance of the above approach for delving deeper into aid effectiveness issues since different aid categories have different effects on key fiscal variables—an impact that could not be revealed if a single figure for aid was employed. More precisely, project aid and food aid appear to cause a reduction in public investment whereas programme aid and technical assistance are positively related to public investment. The same applies for government consumption. A negligible impact on government tax and non-tax revenues, and a strong displacement of government borrowing are also found.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
90. Developed Country Trade Barriers and the Least Developed Countries: The Economic Results of Freeing Trade
- Author:
- Jon D. Haveman and Howard J. Shatz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The Doha Ministerial Declaration emphasized that priority should be given to improving market access for products originating in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In this paper, we analyze the importance of this proposition with respect to market access in the Triad economies. We first present a brief history of non-reciprocal preferences granted by the Triad. This covers Generalized System of Preference (GSP) programmes in each, and further preferences granted to African, Caribbean and Pacific countries by the EU and preferences granted to Caribbean Basin, Andean, and African countries by the US. This history is followed by an assessment of trade generated by these preferences in the year 2000, and of the extent to which LDC exports might be expected to increase should the preferences be made comprehensive. Preferences in 2000 are shown to have led to an increase of US$3.5 billion in LDC exports, while a complete duty-free treatment could expand LDC exports by as much as US$7.6 billion, 90 per cent of which will be absorbed by the US. As this represents a doubling of LDC exports to these countries, we interpret these results as an endorsement of this priority in the Doha Round of negotiations.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Caribbean