Search

Begin New Search Topic International Political Economy Political Geography Africa Content Type Working Paper

1. An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Economic

Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
For many years, the economies of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa, like most of the world’s economies, have been confronted with numerous fluctuations in the price of raw materials on international markets. For these predominantly extroverted economies, that is, those dependent on export earnings, these price variations have consequences for their macroeconomic performance and the conduct of economic policy. Like most economic crises in the world in the past, the pandemic caused by the new Coronavirus that has been raging since 2020 has also brought with it many changes. Between the confinement measures taken by public authorities to curb the spread of the virus and the resulting slowdown in global economic activity, there has been an inevitable significant drop in global oil demand. The direct consequence of such a scenario is the fall in oil prices on world markets, which is very bad news for the public finances of oil-exporting countries. The main objective of this report is to analyze the effects of oil price fluctuations on the conduct of monetary policy in the CEMAC. We start from the observation that oil shocks are the source of strong inflationary pressures in these economies. It is the responsibility of monetary policy to ensure price stability. Thus, after analyzing the effects of oil price fluctuations on the world economy as well as the macroeconomic and financial implications of these fluctuations on the economies in 2020, we use a Vector Auto Regressive model to analyze the contribution of oil price shocks on the historical dynamics of macroeconomic variables in the various CEMAC countries between 2001 and 2020. Then, we use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to analyze the impact of oil price changes on monetary policy in the CEMAC.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, Global Markets, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, Cameroon, and Central Africa

2. Assessing Asia: Sub-Saharan Africa Global Value Chain Linkages

Author:
Heiwai Tang, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, and Albert Zeufack
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the relationship between Asia’s economic engagements in Africa and individual African nations’ participation in global value chains (GVC) over the past two decades. We find that while overall exports from Africa to Asia are still highly concentrated in resource-intensive sectors, a few African countries have exploited the emerging opportunities to diversify export portfolios through exporting to Asia. Each African nation has a distinct main trade partner in Asia, in contrast to the common view that China has become the dominant trade partner of most African nations. Using a panel data set for 46 African countries over 16 years from 2000 and 2015, we find that exports to Asia are positively correlated with exports to the rest of the world, suggesting that in contrast to trade diversion, trade with Asia complements exports to other countries. Asian economic engagement in the continent is associated with countries’ exports “moving up the value chain”, as measured by the upstreamness index proposed by Antras et al. (2012). However, such process was accompanied by a reduction in the length of their production chains, implying that fewer stages and countries are now involved in the production of exported goods.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Natural Resources, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Data
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Global Focus

3. Skills in African Labor Markets and Implications for Migration to Europe

Author:
Andreas Backhaus
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper assesses the potential for skilled labor migration from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. It utilizes representative surveys from Ghana and Kenya to shed light on the quality and distribution of skills in the labor markets of these countries. Skills in both countries are found to be unevenly distributed, with significant parts of the labor force being essentially unskilled. Similarly designed surveys from France, Germany, and the UK further allow comparing skills and formal education between the African and the European countries. On average, the labor force in the sub-Saharan African countries is less skilled and less educated than the European labor force. Importantly, even at the same levels of formal education, workers in Ghana and Kenya are substantially less skilled than workers in Europe. The paper further considers a number of hypothetical scenarios for skilled labor migration from the African to the European countries. It is demonstrated that the European countries would have to recruit workers from the very top end of the African skill distribution to match European demands for skills. In turn, the average worker from the African labor markets would fit only into the low end of the European skill distribution where employment rates are low. Hence, more regular and skilled labor migration from African countries will unlikely be a remedy for skill shortages in Europe unless migrants are positively selected on their skills. In that case, however, additional opportunities for skilled labor migration would risk a brain drain from African countries that could harm economic development there. Improving the quality of education in sub-Saharan Africa on a broad scale remains indispensable for mutually beneficial migration between Africa and Europe.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Migration, Labor Issues, Migrant Workers, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Europe, Ghana, and Sub-Saharan Africa

4. The African Union (AU) and Migration: Implications for Human Trafficking in Africa

Author:
Innocent Moyo and Ernest Toochi Anichie
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
Through the Treaty Establishing the African Economic Community (AEC) or Abuja Treaty (1991), the African Union (AU) promotes the formation of Regional Economic Communities (RECs), such as among others, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). In addition, the AU has adopted two policies that focus on migration, namely, the Migration Policy Framework for Africa (MPFA) and the African Common Position on Migration and Development (ACPMD. Both policy frameworks and the drive towards RECs, essentially imply the efficient management and harnessing of the potentials of migration (and the eradication of irregular and criminal forms of migration such as human trafficking) for inclusive development and inter alia, economic growth. In this light and based on an extensive review of literature and policy documents on the subjects of continental and regional integration in Africa and human trafficking, this paper argues that despite the moves towards regional integration, as defined by different stages of RECs in Africa, there is still a rise in human smuggling and trafficking on the continent. The paper therefore suggest that Africa needs a new strategy for improved regional integration. She also needs to embrace post-neo-functional approach (a composite of neonationalism, post-nationalism, and humanism. This approach which advocates that regionalism in Africa should proceed from national integration and establishment of regional security organisation.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Migration, Regional Integration, Human Trafficking, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and African Union

5. The Subnational Political Resource Curse: Allocations, Internally Generated Revenue and Spending Priorities in Nigeria

Author:
Toluwanimi Segun
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Oil wealth comes with a caveat-depend on it excessively and be buffeted by oil market volatility. The 2014 oil price crash revealed that Nigeria did not heed this warning. The country’s expenditure forecasts are based on an assumed oil price so that the government was caught flatfooted when the crash began around June. Under duress, public officials eventually revealed how financially irresponsible governance was during the years of plenty: after a tussle with the President, State Governors shared oil profits stowed in a “rainy day” account called the Excess Crude Account (ECA) amongst themselves; they allegedly also hindered the growth of the country’s Sovereign Wealth Fund. It does not seem like those hard-won funds were spent in the public’s interest-reports detailing several state governments’ inability to fund public investments and pay public servants’ salaries have continued to arise into 2018.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Revenue Management, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

6. From the EMS to the EMU and...to China

Author:
Joseph Halevi
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a process that separated monetary from fiscal policies by giving priority to the centralization of the former. Instead of repeating the well known critiques levelled against the EMU – for which readers are referred to the unsurpassed treatment by Stiglitz, the essay highlights the splintering of Europe in the way in which it has unfolded during the 1990s and in the first decade of the present millennium. In particular the early economic and political origins of the terminal crisis of Italy are located between the late 1980s and the 1990s. France is shown to belong increasingly to the so-called European periphery by virtue of a weakening industrial structure and persistent balance of payments deficits. The paper argues that France regains its central role by political means and through its weight as an active nuclear military power centered on maintaining its imperial interests and posture especially in Africa. The first decade of the present millennium is portrayed as the period in which a distinct German economic area had been formed in the midst of Europe with a strong drive to the east with an increasingly powerful gravitational pull towards the People’s Republic of China.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Political Economy, History, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, Germany, and Global Focus

7. China and the World Bank: How Contrasting Development Approaches affect the Stability of African States

Author:
Kai Gehring, Lennart C. Kaplan, and Melvin H.L. Wong
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
China’s development model challenges the approaches of traditional Western donors like the World Bank. We argue that both aim at stability, but differ in the norms propagated to achieve that. Using fixed effects and IV estimations, we analyze a broad range of subnational stability measures in Africa. Aid by both the WB and China does not increase outright conflict nor any type of citizen protest, on average. Both even reduce outright conflict by governments against civilians. Still, Chinese aid is associated with more government repression and an increased acceptance of authoritarian norms, while WB projects strengthen democratic values.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Political Economy, World Bank, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa and China

8. Intra-Regional Foreign Direct Investment In SADC: South Africa and Mauritius Outward Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Onelie B. Nkuna
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper looks at intra-SADC (Southern African Development Community) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and focuses on Mauritius and South Africa’s outward FDI. Data from 1999 to 2010 are collated and qualitative analyses conducted. The study reveals that Mauritius’ outward FDI was mainly in the service sector and largely went to Madagascar, Seychelles and Mozambique, which were also the country’s main trading partners, except for Botswana. Meanwhile, South African investments were mainly in Mauritius, Tanzania and Mozambique, while the country’s main trading partners were Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Swaziland and Angola. The study also found the following to be potential drivers of Mauritian and South African outward investments, and hence intra-SADC FDI flows: geographical proximity, market access, liberalized markets, stable macroeconomic and political environment, natural resource availability, and policy and institutional framework. Graphical analyses and simple correlations reveal that trade and FDI are positively correlated for Mauritius and South Africa’s outward investment, suggestive of a complementarity relationship.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Mauritius

9. Capital Flight: Measurement and Drivers

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, James K. Boyce, and Ameth Saloum Ndiaye
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper describes the nature of capital flight, the methodologies used to measure it, and its drivers. The paper presents updated estimates of the magnitude of capital flight from 39 African countries for which adequate data are available for the period 1970-2010. It gives a global context of the problem of capital flight from Africa by providing comparative indicators on capital flight and related flows for other developing regions. The paper undertakes a detailed econometric analysis of the drivers of capital flight from African countries. It explores empirically the role of domestic and external factors in driving capital flight, including structural factors, the macroeconomic environment, governance, risk and returns to investment, capital account openness, and financial development. The first objective of the study is to contribute to the literature by providing the most comprehensive analysis of capital flight from Africa that takes into account economic as well as non-economic dimensions, and recognizes the importance of both the domestic and global contexts. The second objective is to contribute to the policy debate on capital flight both in Africa and globally.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Affairs, Global Markets, Global Political Economy, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

10. Whither aid? Financing development in Mozambique

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Careful consideration of the appropriate level and composition of aggregate public spending is vital in low income countries, especially in the presence of large volumes of foreign aid. Not only can expansion of the public sector weaken economic growth, but also provision of public services may be difficult to re­trench. These issues are relevant to Mozambique as the share of government in GDP already is comparatively high and strategic management of aggregate public spending historically has been weak. A new long-term macroeconomic model quantifies the implications of alternative aggregate spending profiles. It shows that small increases in minimum levels of government spending correspond to large increases in the duration to aid independence. Sharp reductions in aid availability would necessitate significant fiscal and economic adjustments, including cuts in real public spending per capita. For this reason, there is no room for complacency as regards the future of development finance to Mozambique.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, International Political Economy, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa

11. Contextualizing Conceptions of Corruption: Challenges for the International Anti-corruption Campaign

Author:
Malte Gephart
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
While in an initial legal and academic anti-corruption wave corruption itself was at the center of analysis, research is now increasingly focused on anti-corruption discourse and praxis. The latter analyses have generated numerous criticisms of anti-corruption activities and anti-corruption research, and these are presented in this literature review. These criticisms range from the anti-corruption norm's legitimacy deficit, to the difficulty of defining and measuring corruption, to the discourse's depoliticization through its technicalization. The anti-corruption movement faces particular difficulties with respect to the tension between the universality of the anti-corruption norm and its simultaneous contextualization for specific and local application. This tension is especially important because it touches upon the central issues of the respective political communities, such as the division of the private from the public, which differ from one cultural context to another. The contextualization of anti-corruption concepts has to be enabled in various areas: first, with respect to the culturally shaped conception of the division between the public and the private; second, with respect to local understandings of corruption, that is, what is actually meant when talking about “corruption”; and third, with respect to the low socioeconomic development levels in some countries, which do not permit the absence of corruption (evading a zero-tolerance rhetoric).
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and United Nations

12. The United States:A normative power?

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
To what degree may the US be considered a normative power? The US foreign policy mainstream tends to reflect a varying blend of normative and hegemonic approaches. The US has been and continues to be simultaneously a guardian of international norms; a norm entrepreneur challenging prevailing norms as insufficient; a norm externaliser when it tries to advance norms for others that it is reluctant to apply to itself; and a norm blocker when it comes to issues that may threaten its position, or that exacerbate divisions among conflicting currents of American domestic thought. On balance (and despite exceptions), the US has sought to manage this normative-hegemonic interplay by accepting some limits on its power in exchange for greater legitimacy and acceptance of its leadership by others. The unresolved question today is whether the US and other key players are prepared to stick with this bargain. Closer examination of the US case also raises a considerable number of questions about the notion of the EU as a 'normative power'.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Law, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

13. The FDI Recession Has Begun

Author:
Karl Sauvant
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:
With $1.8 trillion (according to UNCTAD), world foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached an all-time high last year. All major regions benefitted from increased flows. But that was then. What is, and will be, the impact of the financial crisis and the recession on FDI flows this year and next?
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Central Asia, and Latin America

14. Governing the Global Economy: Strengthening Multilateral Institutions

Author:
Ngaire Woods
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The good news in the global economy is that the past two decades have seen globalization proceed apace with unprecedented economic growth in several parts of the world. To date, sound economic policy has made hyperinflation a rarity. Rising commodity prices are fueling growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Formerly poor countries are emerging as major players in the world economy.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Organization, International Political Economy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Bangkok

15. Rainfall Shocks, Markets, and Food Crises: Evidence from the Sahel

Author:
Jenny C. Aker
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
How do markets respond to extreme rainfall in West Africa? This paper examines the effect of weather on grain market performance in Niger, a country increasingly affected by drought and severe food crises over the past two decades. Using a dataset that combines information on rainfall, agricultural production, prices and transaction costs, I exploit rainfall variation to estimate the impact of drought on grain market performance between 1997 and 2006. Time series tests suggest that grain markets in Niger respond to supply shocks and that markets are more integrated during drought years. Exploiting the exogeneity of extreme rainfall in a difference-in-differences framework supports these findings: drought reduces grain price dispersion across markets. This impact is stronger as a higher percentage of markets are affected by drought, as was the case in 2004/2005, the year of a severe food crisis. The results suggest that early warning systems in West Africa should focus on the spatial impact of drought at the sub-regional level, as well as monitor prices in key forecasting markets during the harvest period.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Political Economy, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

16. Ethnic Coalitions of Convenience and Commitment: Political Parties and Party Systems in Kenya

Author:
Sebastian Elischer
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of ethnicity in shaping the character of Kenya's political parties and its party system since 1992. Drawing on a constructivist conception of ethnicity, it uses a framework of comparison derived from Donald Horowitz and distinguishes between three party types: the mono-ethnic party, the multi-ethnic alliance type and the multi-ethnic integrative type. It shows that although Kenyan parties have increasingly incorporated diverse communities, they have consistently failed to bridge the country's dominant ethnic cleavages. Consequently, all of Kenya's significant parties represent ethnic coalitions of convenience and commitment and, thus, ethnic parties. The paper further states that the country's post-2007 political environment is a by-product of the omnipresence of this party type.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

17. Reviving Economic Growth in Liberia

Author:
Steve Radelet
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Liberia was decimated by 25 years of gross economic mismanagement and 14 years of brutal civil war. GDP fell by over 90% in less than two decades, one of the largest economic collapses in the world since World War II. This paper explores the challenges in reinvigorating rapid, inclusive, and sustained economic growth in the post-war environment. It stresses the importance of not just reigniting growth, but rebuilding the economy in a way that avoids the substantial income concentration of the past and creates significant economic opportunities to groups that were marginalized and excluded in the past. It examines the new government's progress so far, including the major steps it has taken in its first 18 months and the unique way that it has organized government-donor relations.
Topic:
Development, Government, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

18. Who Intervenes and Why it Matters: The Problem of Agency in Humanitarian Intervention

Author:
Eric A. Heinze
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
The debate over humanitarian intervention has tended to focus on the conditions under which the resort to armed intervention is permissible while paying less attention to which actors are best suited to engage in such a complicated and demanding undertaking. The purpose of this paper is to explore characteristics that affect the ability of potential agents of humanitarian intervention to effectively undertake this operationally and politically demanding task. While the military wherewithal of the intervener is fundamental, I argue that a potential intervener's legitimacy as an agent or enforcer of humanitarian norms is also crucial in determining whether and the extent to which it is a suitable agent. In other words, the efficacy of a potential intervener depends not only on its military wherewithal, but also on certain non-material factors than can affect its ability to effectively exercise this power. Using a consequentialist ethical framework, this paper examines the various material and non-material factors that can militate either for or against the suitability of certain actors undertaking humanitarian intervention in various parts of the world. I ultimately use this framework to examine the suitability of various possible agents of a potential humanitarian intervention in Darfur, Sudan.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

19. Real Income Stagnation of Countries, 1960-2001

Author:
Sanjay Reddy and Camelia Minoiu
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper examines the phenomenon of real-income stagnation (in which real-income growth is uninterruptedly negligible or negative for a sizable sequence of years). The authors analyze data for four decades from a large cross-section of countries. Real income stagnation is a conceptually distinct phenomenon from low average growth and other features of the growth sequence that have been previously considered. The authors find that real income stagnation has affected a significant number of countries (103 out of 168), and resulted in substantial income loss. Countries that suffered spells of real income stagnation were more likely to be poor, in Latin America or sub-Saharan Africa, conflict ridden and dependent on primary commodity exports. Stagnation is also very likely to persist over time. Countries that were afflicted with stagnation in the 1960s had a likelihood of seventy-five percent of also being afflicted with stagnation in the 1990s.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

20. Gender and the Distribution of Wealth in Developing Countries

Author:
Cheryl R. Doss and Carmen Diana Deere
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Only recently has it been recognized that women may not share in the wealth of men, even within the same household or family. Moreover, there is growing evidence that the gender distribution of wealth matters. This paper first reviews the available evidence for developing countries on the gender asset gap and finds that it is significant. It then considers the constraints on women's asset ownership with particular attention to the role of legal marital and inheritance regimes. The paper then turns to a more detailed examination of women's land ownership in Latin America and Africa. The final section considers the impact of women's land ownership on household income and welfare.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America