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61. Ending Zimbabwe's Nightmare: A Possible Way Forward - Africa Briefing No. 56

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The inter-party negotiations that have sought to end Zimbabwe's political, economic and now full-blown humanitarian crisis following the fraudulent June 2008 presidential election run-off are hopelessly deadlocked. Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF will not accept genuine power sharing, and Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are unwilling to join a ZANU-PF dominated administration as a junior partner, responsible for ending international isolation but without authority to implement needed reforms and emergency humanitarian relief.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

62. Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of col-lapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military intervention since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world's worst humanitarian and security crises. The international community is preoccupied with a symptom – the piracy phenomenon – instead of concentrating on the core of the crisis, the need for a political settlement. The announced Ethiopian withdrawal, if it occurs, will open up a new period of uncertainty and risk. It could also provide a window of opportunity to relaunch a credible political process, however, if additional parties can be persuaded to join the Djibouti reconciliation talks, and local and international actors – including the U.S. and Ethiopia – accept that room must be found for much of the Islamist insurgency in that process and ultimately in a new government dispensation.
Topic:
Government, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Ethiopia, and Somalia

63. The Cleavage Model, Ethnicity and Voter Alignment in Africa: Conceptual and Methodological Problems Revisited

Author:
Gero Erdmann
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Recent research on political parties and ethnicity has challenged the conventional wisdom about ethnicity as the major factor that explains voter alignment in Africa. The paper maintains that the cleavage model, although modified to include ethnicity, still provides heuristically the best foundation for the explanation of party formation and voting behaviour in Africa. It points out that inconclusive and contradicting research results about the salience of ethnicity can be attributed to a variety of unresolved methodological and conceptual problems linked to the 'fluidity' of the concept of ethnicity. To overcome these problems refined research designs and more sophisticated analytical tools are required. Finally, it is safe to assume that the relevance of ethnicity for the formation of party systems and voter alignment is not a uniform pattern across Africa, but will differ from one country to the other.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa

64. Crafting Political Institutions in Africa. Electoral Systems and Systems of Government in Rwanda and Zambia Compared

Author:
Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Scholars of institutional design attribute large importance to the choice of new institutions. The comparative analysis of how Rwanda and Zambia crafted their new electoral systems and the systems of government regards procedural, structural and rational choice variables which may influence the option for particular solutions. External influences and the type of transition are determinants that can decide which actors make their interests prevail. The degree of innovation or conservatism of new institutions is mainly a result of the speed of the process and the kind of actors involved. However, rational reflections on how to produce legitimacy and minimize personal risks which take into consideration the state of conflict in the country decide on the speed and on innovative outcomes. The structured analysis of only two cases uncovers already that it is rather difficult to realise the transfer of design recommendations into reality.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, and Holland

65. Nigeria's Economic Reforms Progress and Challenges

Author:
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Philip Osafo-Kwaako
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Following years of economic stagnation, Nigeria embarked on a comprehensive reform program during the second term of the Obasanjo administration. The program was based on the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and focused on four main areas: improving the macroeconomic environment, pursuing structural reforms, strengthening public expenditure management, and implementing institutional and governance reforms. This paper reviews Nigeria's recent experience with economic reforms and outlines major policy measures that have been implemented. Although there have been notable achievements under the program, significant challenges exist, particularly in translating the benefits of reforms into welfare improvements for citizens, in improving the domestic business environment, and in extending reform policies to states and local governments. Consequently, we argue that the recent reform program must be viewed as the initial steps of a much longer journey of economic recovery and sustained growth. This paper concludes by outlining a number of outstanding issues that future Nigerian administrations must address.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

66. Demilitarizing Algeria

Author:
Hugh Roberts
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Algerian state constituted at the end of the eight-year war of independence by the victorious Front de Libération Nationale (FLN) exhibited an impressive degree of continuity and stability during its first 26 years, from 1962 to 1988. In February 1989, however, the regime of President Chadli Bendjedid abruptly introduced a pluralist constitution and legalized parties which, based on rival Islamist and Berberist conceptions of identity, polarized public opinion by advocating mutually exclusive Islamist and secularist conceptions of the state. In doing so, the regime set in motion a process that profoundly destabilized the state. Instead of restoring order, however, the army's eventual intervention in January 1992 precipitated a descent into armed conflict which, while greatly reduced since 1998, has still not entirely ended.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria

67. Do No Harm: Aid, Weak Institutions, and the Missing Middle in Africa

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The implicit assumption of the donor community is that Africa is trapped by its poverty, and that aid is necessary if Africa is to escape the trap. In this note I suggest an alternative assumption: that Africa is caught in an institutional trap, signaled and reinforced by the small share of income of its independent middle-income population. Theory and historical experience elsewhere suggest that a robust middle-income group contributes critically to the creation and sustenance of healthy institutions, particularly healthy institutions of the state. I propose that if external aid is to be helpful for institution-building in Africa's weak and fragile states, donors need to emphasize not providing more aid but minimizing the risks more aid poses for this group in Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

68. Why Doesn't Africa Get More Equity Investment? Frontier Stock Markets, Firm Size and Asset Allocations of Global Emerging Market Funds

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Scott Standley, and Todd Moss
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper addresses the question of investment in sub-Saharan African listed securities by examining characteristics of the continent's 15 equity markets, the rise and fall of African regional funds, and the asset allocation trends for global emerging market (GEM) funds. The data shows that South Africa is now a leading destination of capital, but that few managers invest elsewhere on the continent. However, we find that African markets are not treated differently than other markets and present evidence that small market size and low levels of liquidity are a binding deterrent for foreign institutional investors. Thus, orthodox market variables rather than market failure appear to explain Africa's low absolute levels of inward equity flows. The paper then turns to new data from firm surveys to explore why African firms remain small. The implications of our findings are threefold: (a) efforts to encourage greater private investment in these markets should concentrate on domestic audiences and specialized regional funds, (b) the depth and success of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange can perhaps be better utilized to benefit other parts of the continent, and (c) any long-term strategy should concentrate on the underlying barriers to firm entry and growth.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

69. CÔTE D'IVOIRE :FAUT-IL CROIRE À L'ACCORD DE OUAGADOUGOU ?

Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
L'accord de paix conclu le 4 mars 2007 à Ouagadougou entre Laurent Gbagbo et Guillaume Soro constitue un tournant majeur dans la résolution du conflit armé en Côte d'Ivoire, mais ne représente qu'un premier pas dans la bonne direction. Tous les Ivoiriens qui souhaitent une paix durable doivent maintenant se mobiliser pour exiger du gouvernement de transition la délivrance effective des titres d'identité prévus, la récupération des armes encore détenues par les milices, une véritable réforme du secteur de la sécurité et un processus électoral crédible. La communauté internationale a évité à la Côte d'Ivoire de sombrer dans le chaos au cours de ces quatre dernières années et doit maintenir intact son engagement militaire, politique et financier. L'évolution du processus de paix ne doit pas être dictée par les seules ambitions des deux signataires de l'accord de Ouagadougou mais aussi par l'objectif de la construction d'une paix durable en Côte d'Ivoire qui est cruciale pour la stabilité de toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Civil War, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

70. Nigeria: Failed Elections, Failing State?

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's democracy is in crisis. The April 2007 elections were supposed to move the country to a higher rung on the democratisation ladder, create a more conducive environment to resolve its many internal conflicts and strengthen its credentials as a leading peacemaker, but instead generated serious new problems that may be pushing it further towards the status of a failed state. The declared winner, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, assumed the presidency on 29 May with less legitimacy than any previously elected president and so with less capacity to moderate and resolve its violent domestic conflicts. He must act urgently to heal wounds, redress electoral injustice and punish the most grievous voting frauds, including those by officials of the agencies directly involved in administering the elections. To salvage his government's legitimacy, he needs to pursue policies of inclusiveness and restraint in relation to the opposition, accept the decisions of the tribunals (including the Supreme Court if need be) reviewing the petitions of defeated candidates, and embark on a vigorous electoral reform program.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

71. Northern Uganda: Seizing the Opportunity for Peace

Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With peace negotiations due to restart in the southern Sudanese town of Juba on 26 April, the ten-month-old peace process between the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and the Ugandan government still has a chance of ending one of Africa's longest, most brutal conflicts. The present process is more structured and inclusive than previous efforts to end the twenty-year-old conflict, benefits from greater – if still inadequate – external involvement, and has made some significant gains, notably removing most LRA fighters from northern Uganda. And the implementation of the agreement to end Sudan's north-south civil war has reduced both the LRA's and the Ugandan army's room for manoeuvre.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Sudan

72. Angolan Progress and Prospects: A Conference on Development and Reconstruction

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
On May 9, 2007, a conference and celebration were held honoring Angola Day. The organizers and supporters were the Africa Program of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS), the Angolan Embassy, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.S.-Angola Chamber of Commerce, with further sponsorship by an array of Angolan and international companies. The conference sought to share progress, challenges and opportunities facing Angola, now in its fifth year of peace following a brutal 27-year civil war. The celebratory nature of the event was not limited to the reception and cultural entertainment which took place at the WWICS that day, but also reflected the social, economic and political progress in Angola over these five years. For example, panelists in the conference shared information regarding an ambitious rehabilitation program of social infrastructure, steady economic growth, stabilizing political institutions and improved security conditions. They further cited specific opportunities for partnership with the United States, through international cooperation, private investment and increased trade. Scheduled to hold their first legislative and presidential elections since the end of the civil war in 2002, Angola is poised to become “a model of post-conflict democratic transition, and has the resources—human capital and natural endowments—to be a regional and global leader in world affairs” (Jendayi Frazer, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Angola, and Khartoum

73. Reviving Economic Growth in Liberia

Author:
Steve Radelet
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Liberia was decimated by 25 years of gross economic mismanagement and 14 years of brutal civil war. GDP fell by over 90% in less than two decades, one of the largest economic collapses in the world since World War II. This paper explores the challenges in reinvigorating rapid, inclusive, and sustained economic growth in the post-war environment. It stresses the importance of not just reigniting growth, but rebuilding the economy in a way that avoids the substantial income concentration of the past and creates significant economic opportunities to groups that were marginalized and excluded in the past. It examines the new government's progress so far, including the major steps it has taken in its first 18 months and the unique way that it has organized government-donor relations.
Topic:
Development, Government, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

74. State Failure Revisited II: Actors of Violence and Alternative Forms of Governance

Author:
Tobias Debiel and Daniel Lambach
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
This INEF report is the companion piece to “State Failure Revisited I: Globalization of Security and Neighborhood Effects” (INEF Report 87/2007). While the first working paper mainly took a structural perspective and dealt with the global and regional level, the contributions in our new study put those actors in the spotlight who shape national and local arenas.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa

75. Sierra Leone: Reform or Relapse? Conflict and Governance Reform

Author:
Brian Thomson
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Sierra Leone is a success story of international intervention to put an end to a brutal civil war. Yet there is considerable disillusionment in many quarters at the lack of progress in tackling the issues that caused the war, such as corruption and the exclusion of many from access to resources and public services. This report describes the collaboration between the international community and the Sierra Leone government in building and reforming state institutions during the civil war and its aftermath. It assesses the progress made, draws conclusions about the achievements and suggests lessons for donors that may be applicable more widely.
Topic:
Civil War, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and United Kingdom

76. Anti-Corruption Challenges in Post-Election Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:
Muzong W. Kodi
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Now that the Democratic Republic of Congo has held a series of elections that mark the end of the long transition period, new institutions are being put in place at the national and provincial levels. The paper retraces the enduring legacy of mismanagement, corruption and human rights violations which was left by Mobutu Sese Seko's regime (1965-97) and was deepened during the following six years of conflict and three years of the transition period. This paper shows that a culture of impunity compounded by an inversion of moral values persists and will be among the many challenges confronting the leaders of the new regime.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Demographics, Government, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

77. A Nigerian Perspective on the 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections Results From Pre- And Post- Election Surveys.

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
This report documents the opinions of the Nigerian people at an important time in their country's history—just before and after the historic elections that resulted in Nigeria's first ever hand over in power between one elected civilian ruler to another elected civilian. Overall, Nigerians show optimism in their society, the institutions that comprise it, and the future direction in which newly elected leaders will take them. At the same time, many show caution toward and disappointment in some aspects of government, especially when evaluating the conduct of the recent elections. Here is a summary of the key findings of IFES' pre- and post- election surveys. A more detailed examination of the results will follow in the subsequent sections.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

78. International Engagement in Sudan after the CPA

Author:
Axel Borchgrevink and Anita Haslie
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The report analyses the international engagement in Sudan since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in relation to the Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations, which the OECD/DAC is currently developing. The report concludes that donor coordination has been quite advanced in Sudan, with a number of innovative mechanisms tried out. Furthermore, there has been a concerted effort towards contributing to the building of the South Sudan state. This effort, however, has focused on building institutions from the top down in Juba, without a complementary emphasis on building legitimacy and the relations between state apparatus and society. Moreover, strengthening the relationship between the Government of National Unity and the Government of South Sudan has been given relatively less attention. In terms of peacebuilding, there are also challenges for international engagement. More could have been done to contribute to a short-term peace dividend, and perhaps also to support the implementation of the CPA. On the basis of the experiences of the case of Sudan, the OECD/DAC Principles are found to be very relevant for guiding international engagement.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Juba

79. Neopatrimonialism Revisited - Beyond a Catch-All Concept

Author:
Ulf Engel and Gero Erdmann
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The article provides a critical discussion of the literature on “patrimonialism” and “neopatrimonialism” as far as the use in Development Studies in general or African Studies in particular is concerned. To overcome the catch-all use of the concept the authors present their own definition of “neopatrimonialism” based on Max Weber's concept of patrimonialism and legal-rational bureaucracy. However, in order to make the concept more useful for comparative empirical research, they argue, it needs a thorough operationalisation (qualitatively and quantitatively) and the creation of possible subtypes which, in combination, might contribute to a theory of neopatrimonial action.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

80. Nigeria's Faltering Federal Experiment

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's federal system and politics are deeply flawed, contributing to rising violence that threatens to destabilise one of Africa's leading countries. Failing to encourage genuine power sharing, they have sparked dangerous rivalries between the centre and the 36 states over revenue from the country's oil and other natural resources; promoted no-holds-barred struggles between interests groups to capture the state and its attendant wealth; and facilitated the emergence of violent ethnic militias, while politicians play on and exacerbate inter-communal tensions to cover up their corruption. The government has been quick to brand many of the symptoms, especially the rise of militancy, as simple criminality to be dealt with by more police and more troops. But unless it engages with the underlying issues of resource control, equal rights, power sharing and accountability, Nigeria will f ace an internal crisis of increasing proportions.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria