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41. Republic of Guinea: an analysis of current drivers of change

Author:
Ana Larcher Carvalho
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Since gaining independence from France in 1958, Guinea has remained relatively stable and has never experienced violent conflict. Until the bloodless military coup of 2008, it had had only two governments: the socialist administration of Sékou Touré (1958-1984) and the liberal regime of Lansana Conté (1984-2008). Despite some moves towards a more democratic system, including the adoption by referendum of a new constitution in 1990, the latter years of the Conté government were marked by bad governance, human rights violations, weak rule of law and impunity. This was compounded by the prolonged illness of the president, whose fitness to govern was widely doubted, and by 2003 there were fears that Guinea could become yet another failed state.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Government, Torture, Regime Change, and Law
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

42. Gender and Statebuilding in South Sudan

Author:
Nada Mustafa Ali
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
South Sudan’s independence ends decades of conflict as well as socioeconomic and political marginalization at the hands of successive governments in Khartoum, which affected women in gender-specific ways. Independence thus opens up opportunities for women’s economic and social empowerment, ensuring that the new country’s political and economic structures and institutions reflect commitments to women’s participation and human rights. In turn, empowering women will enable South Sudan to strengthen its economic and political structures and institutions. There is great potential for gender equality and respect for women’s rights in South Sudan. The government has expressed commitments to equality between women and men and to women’s participation. South Sudan is relatively egalitarian and lacking in religious extremism. International actors interested in South Sudan recognize that promoting gender equality and women’s empowerment and addressing gender-based violence (GBV) are key to maintaining peace and security and helping South Sudan’s economy grow. Challenges abound, however. South Sudan is severely lacking in infrastructure and has some of the worst human development indicators worldwide. Social and cultural practices harmful to women compound the effects of conflict and marginalization. There are constant internal and external security threats, a limited understanding of gender equality, and a tendency within communities to view gender as an alien and illegitimate concern, given the acute problems that South Sudan faces. The government of South Sudan, with the support of regional partners and the international community, should ensure that gender equality and women’s rights are fully integrated into and are outcomes of state building. National planning, developing the permanent constitution, and building the country’s new institutions and structures should reflect commitments to gender equality and input from women and women’s groups across South Sudan. The government should cost and meet the full budgetary needs of the Ministry of Gender, Child, and Welfare; ratify and implement the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination against Women and the Protocol to the African Charter on Human and People’s Rights on the Rights of Women in Africa; strengthen efforts to prevent GBV and address the needs of GBV victims and survivors; and invest more in quality and accessible health and education.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

43. Somalia: The Transitional Government on Life Support

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has squandered the goodwill and support it received and achieved little of significance in the two years it has been in office. It is inept, increasingly corrupt and hobbled by President Sharif's weak leadership. So far, every effort to make the administration modestly functional has come unstuck. The new leaner cabinet looks impressive on paper but, given divisive politics and the short timeframe, is unlikely to deliver significant progress on key transitional objectives, such as stabilising Somalia and delivering a permanent constitution before August 2011, when the TFG's official mandate ends. Although the Transitional Federal Parliament unilaterally has awarded itself a further three-year-extension, urgent attention needs to be given to the government's structural flaws that stymie peacebuilding in central and south Somalia. If the TFG does not make serious progress on correcting its deficiencies by August, the international community should concentrate its support on the more effective local entities, until a more appropriate and effective national government is negotiated.
Topic:
Political Violence, Government, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

44. Somalia's Endless Transition: Breaking the Deadlock

Author:
Andre Le Sage
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was given a second lease on life in January 2009, after successful peace negotiations in Djibouti produced new TFG leadership and yielded substantial international backing. However, the TFG remains weak and has yet to develop new political alliances or military capabilities that provide traction against Islamist insurgent groups. The insurgents themselves—including al Shabab and Hizbul Islamia—are also weak and internally divided.
Topic:
Government, Islam, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

45. The new 'New Poverty Agenda' in Ghana: what impact?

Author:
Lindsay Whitfield
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper describes and explains the impact of the international-driven 'New Poverty Agenda' in Ghana, focusing on the impact of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) adopted by the New Patriotic Party government in power from 2001 until 2008. The paper argues that the New Poverty Agenda has had some impacts, but not they have been limited and not necessarily helpful in achieving long term poverty reduction. The PRSP was seen by the government in Ghana as necessary to secure debt relief and donor resources, and the strategies produced by the government contained broad objectives rather than concrete strategies on how to achieve those objectives and thus had little impact on government actions. The paper discusses what was actually implemented under the NPP government and the factors influencing those actions. It highlights the constraints Ghanaian governments face in pursuing economic transformation within contemporary domestic and international contexts.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

46. Liberia: Uneven Progress in Security Sector Reform

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since independence and for fourteen years of war, Liberia's army, police and other security agencies have mostly been sources of insecurity and misery for a destitute people. The internationally driven attempt to radically reform the security sector since the war's end in 2003 is a major chance to put this right and prevent new destabilisation. Security sector reform (SSR) programs have been unprecedented in ambition but with mixed results. Army reform, entailing complete disbanding of existing forces, has made significant progress despite lack of proper oversight of private military companies (PMCs) and of consensus on strategic objectives. But police and other security reforms are much less satisfactory. The bold approach to army reform was possible due to strong national consensus and the presence of a large, liberally mandated UN presence. Government and donors must sustain their support to maintain hard-won momentum in army reform and, once clear benchmarks are set, give a floundering police force more resources. The drawdown of the UN force, begun in the second half of 2008, underlines the urgency.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Government, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Liberia

47. Good Governance. Ein universelles Leitbild von Staatlichkeit und Entwicklung?

Author:
Franz Nuscheler
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The World Bank blamed a „crisis of governance“ for the increasingly challenged success of international development cooperation, in particular in Sub‐Sahara Africa. After development cooperation got rid of the burden of the Cold War the international donor community consequently made Good Governance (i.e. rule of law, respect for basic human rights, fighting corruption) a precondition for effective development cooperation. At the same time economic and development theory underwent a change of paradigm beyond the neoliberal Washington Consensus taking up the insight of institutional economics: Institutions matter. Good Governance became the universal model for efficient government and development. This normative model was not spared ideological criticism, because it was suspected of paving, the way for Western concepts of „Good Governance” by means of external subsidies and political conditionalities. What proved to be much more difficult were the problems with promoting the establishment of democratic structures from outside, especially in fragile states.
Topic:
Cold War, Globalization, Government, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

48. West Africa: Governance and Security in a Changing Region

Author:
Abdel-Fatau Musah
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This paper addresses the challenges to human and regional security in the territory covered by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It examines causal factors and their effects, profiles the actors shaping the security environment, and describes the nature and impacts of their interventions. Finally, it projects possible future scenarios based on the current security dynamics. The paper examines the geopolitical environment of West Africa, with emphasis on the strategic importance of the region and the vulnerabilities emanating from its location. Within this context, it discusses the roles of local, regional, and international actors in the evolving regional security architecture, sifting through their actions, motivations, and interventions. It analyzes the attempts by national, regional, and international institutions to transform the security environment, highlighting their roles, strengths, and weaknesses; and it projects various security scenarios, proposing policy options to meet the challenges that these scenarios present.
Topic:
Security, Development, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

49. Salafism and Radical Politics in Postconflict Algeria

Author:
Amel Boubekeur
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Despite the repression of radical Islamist movements since 1992 and the promulgation of a National Reconciliation law in 1999 aimed at encouraging the repentance of jihadi fighters, Algeria is still subject to regular terrorist attacks. Rather than follow the 1990s model of Islamist parties that believed in politics, expressed themselves within the system, discussed the concept of democracy, and had the goal of building an Islamic State, the radical anti-state rhetoric in Algeria today finds its expression in movements that do not believe in working within the political system. These movements are Salafist in nature and include Jihadi Salafism, personified by the recently formed al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI), and Da'wa Salafism, inspired by Saudi Wahhabism. These apolitical or anti-political Salafi trends are the result of the marginaliza-tion of political Salafists, mainly during the 1990s. They reveal the failure of participationist strategies among the moderate Islamist parties and their difficulties in mobilizing their base, a growing depoliticization among the new young Islamist generation, and the urgent need to reinvent pluralistic politics in a post-conflict Algeria.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria

50. Timor-Leste's Displacement Crisis

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The shooting of President José Ramos-Horta in February 2008 underscored the urgency of addressing sources of conflict and violence in Timor-Leste. The unresolved displacement crisis is one of the important problems, both a consequence of past conflict and a potential source of future trouble. Nearly two years after the country descended into civil conflict in April 2006, more than 100,000 people remain displaced. Successive governments and their international partners have failed to bring about the conditions in which they might return home or to prevent further waves of displacements. The new government's national recovery strategy needs to be properly funded and accompanied by a number of other crucial elements, most significantly the creation of a fair and functioning land and property regime, an increase in overall housing stock, an end to the cycle of impunity and reform of the justice and security sectors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

51. 'These young men show no respect for local customs': Globalisation, youth and Islamic revival in Zanzibar

Author:
Simon Turner
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In recent years there has been a revival of Islam in Zanzibar, with heated debates about the nature of Islam and its role in society (Lodhi and Westerlund 1997, Gilsaa 2006). While Islam played a central role in society until independence in 1963, it was effectively removed from the public sphere by the socialist government after independence. Since the 1980s, however, Islam has again become a central issue in the public sphere, albeit in new forms. Like elsewhere in Africa, local forms of Islam are being challenged by a number of new reformist and revivalist kinds of Islam, influenced to some degree by a global Islamic revival, but shaped by the particular, local histories and politics. This has caused some friction – especially as the regime in place seeks to manipulate these tensions for political benefit. However, as it will be argued in this paper, the kind of Islamic revival taking place in Zanzibar is far from radical or violent. In fact, Islamic revivalists often coin their critique of the state in terms of human rights and good governance and provide an alternative modernity that at once challenges and articulates with secular, liberal forms of modernity. Hence, the present paper explores how global trends in Islam – but also global discourses on Human Rights and Good Governance – influence the current modes of Islamic revival in Zanzibar.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Human Rights, and Islam
Political Geography:
Africa and Zanzibar

52. Guinea: Ensuring Democratic Reforms

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le changement politique et économique réclamé par la population guinéenne au prix de près de 200 morts en janvier-février 2007 est largement compromis. Le limogeage du Premier ministre Lansana Kouyaté le 20 mai 2008 et son remplacement par Tidiane Souaré, un proche du président Lansana Conté, risque de compromettre l'ensemble du processus de réforme. Les déclarations apaisantes du nouveau chef de gou- vernement en faveur de l'inclusion et de la poursuite du « changement » ne doivent pas faire illusion. Le gouvernement Souaré-Conté a toutes les chances de remettre en cause les promesses d'élections législati- ves crédibles en décembre 2008, de compromettre le redressement économique du pays et d'enterrer la commission d'enquête indépendante qui doit identifier et poursuivre les auteurs de la répression sanglante de janvier 2007. Plus que jamais, les acteurs de la société civile, les responsables des partis politiques, les auto- rités religieuses et tous ceux qui souhaitent le chan- gement doivent opposer un front uni à la restauration du pouvoir sans partage de Lansana Conté.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

53. Algeria Under Bouteflika: Civil Strife and National Reconciliation

Author:
Rachid Tlemçani
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Algerians no longer live in fear of being killed by radical Islamists at faux barrages (makeshift roadblocks) or of being “disappeared” by “ninjas” — hooded police - men who break down front doors and take occupants away, never to return. This is a remarkable achievement in a country that during the 1990s was synonymous with horrendous violence perpetrated both by Islamist radicals and by security forces. Algeria has regained stability, with radical Islamism no longer a fundamental threat to security across the country. The virtual quarantine in which the country was confined during the mid-1990s has been lifted. It is also increasingly opening up to foreign investment. Algerians have enjoyed a period of peace and relative prosperity, despite occasional flare-ups of violence. During the presidency of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who took office in 1999, Algeria has transitioned from civil war, state failure, and moral decay to stability.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Civil War, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria

54. The Zimbabwe Elections: A Dream Deferred (Executive Summary)

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
“Fear and anxiety concern the post-election process. The most frequent comment from the residents and well as others: 'will the old man rig the election; will the count be fair...?' The fear of a stolen election and the possible outbreak of spontaneous violence creates a palpable anxiety throughout the country.”
Topic:
Political Violence, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

55. A Dream Deferred: The 2008 Zimbabwe Elections

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
“The fear and anxiety concerns the post-election process. The most frequent comment from Zimbabweans and from those watching the process: “Will the old man rig the election? Will the count be fair...?” The fear of a stolen election and the possible outbreak of spontaneous violence have created a palpable anxiety throughout the country”
Topic:
Political Violence, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

56. GUINEE-BISSAU: BESOIN D'ETAT

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La Guinée-Bissau a besoin d'un Etat. Ses structures politiques et administratives ne lui permettent ni de contrôler son territoire, ni d'assurer les services publics minimums, ni de contrebalancer la domination politique de l'armée. Cette faiblesse structurelle est à l'origine de crises politiques récurrentes, de coups à répétition et de la prolifération de réseaux criminels. Cependant, la Guinée-Bissau semble être engagée aujourd'hui dans un nouvel élan grâce au pacte de stabilité politique signé par les trois partis politiques les plus importants en mars 2007. Le risque est réel de voir le pays devenir un narco-Etat et un no man's land politique et administratif, ouvert à tous les trafics et aux réseaux terroristes du Maghreb. La communauté internationale devrait d'urgence soutenir les efforts du gouvernement actuel pour consolider la démocratie, réformer le secteur de la sécurité et construire des structures étatiques viables.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

57. Sierra Leone: A New Era of Reform?

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sierra Leone has made much progress since the civil war ended in 2002, but a number of social and economic time bombs must still be defused if an enduring peace is to be built. The 2007 elections, in which Ernest Bai Koroma won the presidency and his All People's Congress (APC) wrested the parliament from the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP), restored legitimacy to the electoral process. Koroma's reform agenda promises much but must overcome big challenges. The majority of the population lives in abject poverty, and an ever-growing army of unemployed, socially alienated youth is a perennial threat to security. Patronage networks and identity politics, though evolving, continue to constrain government decisions. The new government faces a fundamental political challenge in building public confidence in its agenda, while donor support to post-war reconstruction is gradually scaled down. It needs to do more than call for “attitudinal change” and a renewed “social con- tract” if it is to improve accountability and combat corruption. The UN Peacebuilding Commission can make a major contribution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

58. Ending Zimbabwe's Nightmare: A Possible Way Forward - Africa Briefing No. 56

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The inter-party negotiations that have sought to end Zimbabwe's political, economic and now full-blown humanitarian crisis following the fraudulent June 2008 presidential election run-off are hopelessly deadlocked. Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF will not accept genuine power sharing, and Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are unwilling to join a ZANU-PF dominated administration as a junior partner, responsible for ending international isolation but without authority to implement needed reforms and emergency humanitarian relief.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

59. Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of col-lapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military intervention since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world's worst humanitarian and security crises. The international community is preoccupied with a symptom – the piracy phenomenon – instead of concentrating on the core of the crisis, the need for a political settlement. The announced Ethiopian withdrawal, if it occurs, will open up a new period of uncertainty and risk. It could also provide a window of opportunity to relaunch a credible political process, however, if additional parties can be persuaded to join the Djibouti reconciliation talks, and local and international actors – including the U.S. and Ethiopia – accept that room must be found for much of the Islamist insurgency in that process and ultimately in a new government dispensation.
Topic:
Government, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Ethiopia, and Somalia

60. Burundi: Restarting Political Dialogue

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En dépit des progrès enregistrés dans la mise en œuvre de l'accord de paix avec le Parti pour la libération du peuple hutu – Forces nationa les de libération (Palipe-hutu-FNL), dernier mouvement rebelle en activité dans le pays, le Burundi traverse une crise politique dange-reuse qui risque de compromettre la tenue d'élections libres et démocratiques en 2010 et d'affecter la stabi-lité du pays. Le retour du chef rebelle Agathon Rwasa à Bujumbura, et la signature de l'accord politique de Magaliesburg le 11 juin 2008 sont des pas importants pour le processus de paix burundais. Toutefois, le processus de désarmement commence à peine, et la question de l'intégration du mouvement rebelle dans les institutions politiques et les corps de défense et de sécurité n'est toujours pa s réglée. Dans ce contexte, l'absence de dialogue avec les partis politiques d'opposition est dommageable à la bonne gestion du pays. Il est urgent que les acteurs politiques locaux et les partenaires extérieurs du Burundi prennent la mesure de ces risques et s'efforcent de les conjurer par un renouveau du dialogue national.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi