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Begin New Search Topic Government Political Geography Africa Content Type Working Paper

21. Opening Adaptation Windows onto Public Financial Management Reform Gaps in Mozambique

Author:
Matt Andrews, Tim McNaught, and Salimah Samji
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Governments across the world regularly pursue reforms that achieve less than was originally expected or is needed to make the state function better. The limits to reform success are often obvious in even the early days of reform, where gaps and weaknesses manifest. Many governments have no mechanisms built into their reform processes to see these gaps and weaknesses, however, and persist with predefined reform plans instead of adapting designs to close the gaps and address weaknesses. One antidote to this challenge is to create reflection points where reformers scrutinize their progress to identify weaknesses, reflect on these weaknesses, and adapt their next steps to address the weaknesses. In the spirit of John Kingdon’s work on ‘policy windows’, we call these reflection points ‘adaptation windows’—moments where reformers acknowledge problems in their reforms, adapt reforms to address such, and mobilize support for this adaptation. This paper discusses an effort to open an adaptation window for reformers to ‘see’ and then respond to public financial management (PFM) reform gaps and weaknesses in Mozambique. The paper details why and how this work was pursued, and also reflects on results of the government’s reflection at the adaptation window.
Topic:
Government, Reform, International Development, and State
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

22. Scaling the Eurobond Debt Wall

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Florence Banda-Muleya
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The writing is on the wall - Zambia is at a high risk of debt distress: The country risks defaulting on repaying the principal amounts of the three Eurobonds due during 2022-2027. A default could lead to exclusion from the international capital markets, a dented reputation which would culminate into a decline in Foreign Direct Investments and reduced credit to the private sector and credit rating downgrades. This would ultimately result in an economic contraction which would affect future payments and further compounding the default. Government has to pay back US$750 million in 2022, US$1 billion in 2024 and US$1.25 billion over 2025-2027. Between 2018 and 2022, Government will spend about US$237.4 million per annum in interest payments towards the three Eurobonds – this annual amount is about the same as the entire social protection budget in 2017. Policy measures have been put in place to manage the debt, but they seem inadequate: The measures include a debt management strategy that will guide borrowing decisions in the medium term. The Government has also signalled its intensions to set up a sinking fund and/or refinance the debt – essentially replacing the old loans with a new loan offering different, perhaps more favourable, terms. To set up the sinking fund, Government intends to set aside K100 million in 2018, K800 million in 2019 and K3.97 billion in 2020. But setting up the fund requires an excess of K6 billion per annum between 2018 and 2022. No clear indication has been given with regard to when refinancing will be considered. So the plans put in place may not be adequate to pay back the Eurobonds. Government should not wait until it is too late: In order to meet the principal and interest payments on the three Eurobonds, Government needs to start the strategies for paying back the Eurobonds sooner rather than later. Government has already lost time as a pay-back plan should have been instituted for the Eurobonds as soon as they were issued. But without any budget surpluses, and with foreign financing having somewhat dried up, Zambia has to look to more domestic resource mobilisation to raise the funds needed to pay back the Eurobonds.
Topic:
Government, Economy, Public Debt, and Eurobonds
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

23. Strengthening Local Government Service Delivery Systems Through the Open Government Initiative: The Case of Botswana

Author:
Naledi C. Madala and Molefe B. Phirinyane
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The Government of Botswana has, and continues to promote local government as an instrument of decentralization and public participation for local level governance and service delivery. Local authorities (LAs) are at the forefront of the provision of basic services to the local communities. The LAs are also a major channel for the use of public resources as exemplified by the significant budget allocations committed to them. It is, therefore, important that they conduct their business in the most effective and efficient manner. In order for public sector systems to deliver effective localized services, LAs in Botswana should be gradually transformed from bodies that are mainly concerned with pushing services but to proactively engage their citizens and represent their communities’ interests. Considering the extent of responsibilities of the local government authorities, there is a need to set clear expectations and have structures to ensure that local bodies respond to local needs by conducting local development in a timely, inclusive, open, honest and accountable manner. As some of the many efforts required to improve governance and service delivery in the country this paper proposes the establishment and operationalisation of an Open Local Government Framework, within which local bodies will be supported to make extensive local government information available online as part of an online LA notice board. This paper also recommends for the production of a Local Authority Data Book as a foundation for evidence-based policy-making and policy implementation.
Topic:
Government, Governance, Public Sector, Data, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

24. Ethiopians’ Views of Democratic Government: Fear, Ignorance, or Unique Understanding of Democracy?

Author:
Robert Mattes and Mulu Teka
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
As part of Afrobarometer's Round 5 surveys in 35 African countries, its partner ABCON PLC Consulting House interviewed 2,400 adult Ethiopians in August 2013. Analysis of the collected data raised significant questions about the comparability of Ethiopia results with those from other surveyed countries, particularly with regard to attitudes toward democracy. These questions are laid out and explored in this working paper. In light of these questions, Afrobarometer has not included Ethiopia results in multi-country analyses. We advise caution in any attempt to compare responses to democracy-related questions from Ethiopia with those from other African countries. Analysts are advised to use the Ethiopia data set only in a stand-alone setting or to limit their comparative analysis to items that are not focused on democracy.
Topic:
Development, Government, Public Opinion, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

25. Leveraging Local Knowledge for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding in Africa

Author:
Andrea Ó Súilleabháin
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The call for national and local ownership of peacebuilding and statebuilding design and practice has grown louder in recent years. The principles of leveraging local knowledge and attending to local context have gained increasing prominence and visibility in international policy. Standards of field practice for international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and peacebuilding missions now regularly include consultation of local perspectives and engagement of local actors. But regional, national, and community-level knowledge have not found effective channels to influence and inform the international decision-making process. Translating these principles into practice—in terms of peacebuilding and statebuilding mechanisms, processes, and programs on the ground—is an enduring challenge for the United Nations and international actors.
Topic:
Government and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

26. Nationalized Incumbents and Regional Challengers: Opposition-and Incumbent-Party Nationalization in Africa

Author:
Michael Wahman
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The African party literature, especially research prescribing to the long‐dominant ethnic voting thesis, has asserted that African party systems exhibit low levels of party nationalization. However, systematic research on nationalization across parties and party systems is still lacking. This study argues that the prospects for building nationalized parties vary substantially between incumbent and opposition parties. Incumbent parties, with their access to state resources, have been successful in creating nationwide operations, even in countries where geographical factors have been unfavorable and ethnic fractionalization is high. The analysis utilizes a new data set of disaggregate election results for 26 African countries to calculate nationalization scores for 77 parties and study the correlates of party nationalization. The results show that factors like ethnic fractionalization, the size of the geographical area, and urbanization affect party nationalization, but only in the case of opposition parties. Incumbent parties, on the other hand, generally remain nationalized despite unfavorable structural conditions.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

27. The Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Strategies to Expand Treatment to HIV-Positive South Africans: Scale Economies and Outreach Costs

Author:
Mead Over, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Daniel J. Klein, and Anna Bershteyn
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The South African government is currently discussing various alternative approaches to the further expansion of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in public-sector facilities. Alternatives under consideration include the criteria under which a patient would be eligible for free care, the level of coverage with testing and care, how much of the care will be delivered in small facilities located closer to the patients, and how to assure linkage to care and subsequent adherence by ART patients. We used the EMOD-HIV model to generate 12 epidemiological scenarios. The EMOD-HIV model is a model of HIV transmission which projects South African HIV incidence and prevalence and ARV treatment by age group for alternative combinations of treatment eligibility criteria and testing. We treat as sunk costs the projected future cost of one of these 12 scenarios, the baseline scenario characterizing South Africa's 2013 policy to treat people with CD4 counts less than 350. We compute the cost and benefits of the other 11 scenarios relative to this baseline. Starting with our own bottom-up cost analyses in South Africa, we separate outpatient cost into non-scale-dependent costs (drugs and laboratory tests) and scale-dependent cost (staff, space, equipment and overheads) and model the cost of production according to the expected future number and size of clinics. On the demand side, we include the cost of creating and sustaining the projected incremental demand for testing and treatment. Previous research with EMOD-HIV has shown that more vigorous recruitment of patients with CD4 counts less than 350 appears to be an advantageous policy over a five-year horizon. Over 20 years, however, the model assumption that a person on treatment is 92 percent less infectious improves the cost-effectiveness of higher eligibility thresholds over more vigorous recruitment at the lower threshold of 350, averting HIV infections for between $1,700 and $2,800 (under our central assumptions), while more vigorous expansion under the current guidelines would cost more than $7,500 per incremental HIV infection averted. Granular spatial models of demand and cost facilitate the optimal targeting of new facility construction and outreach services. Based on analysis of the sensitivity of the results to 1,728 alternative parameter combinations at each of four discount rates, we conclude that better knowledge of the behavioral elasticities would be valuable, reducing the uncertainty of cost estimates by a factor of 4 to 10.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Africa

28. Capital Flight from Africa and Development Inequality: Domestic and Global Dimensions

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Over the past decades African economies have exhibited two stunning paradoxes: growth acceleration coexisting with stubbornly high poverty rates; increasing capital flight along with widening development financing gaps. There has been no attempt to link the two in the literature. This paper attempts to fill the gap; it suggests that the implications of capital flight for the inequality-growth-poverty nexus may be the key. Specifically, the paper proposes to shift attention to conceptual and empirical analysis of the implications of capital flight for inequality along income lines and inequality in development both within African countries and between Africa and advanced economies. The evidence presented in the paper indicates that Africa may be more unequal along human development dimensions than along income, and points to the possibility that capital flight may be one of the factors behind the observed limited poverty reduction gains from growth and persistent development gap between African countries and advanced economies.
Topic:
Development, Government, Politics, History, Economies, Inequality, Finance, Microeconomics, Capital Flight, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa

29. Gordian knot: A panoramic perspective on stemming illicit financial flows from Africa

Author:
Melvin Ayogu
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Pushing this strand of research brings a certain feeling of trepidation. It comes from recognizing that by openly elaborating on how to catch or deter a criminal, you thereby confer an undue advantage on the criminal through forewarning. Obtaining a head start in the race to prevail, they (criminals) are able to consider and possibly devise an effective circumvention strategy. But if the criminal must not see it coming then, what aspects of how to stop a thief shall we and shall we not reveal or discuss openly amongst all? There are no easy answers to the conundrum. For instance, one has to consider the signaling value of openly engaging in discussions on how to stop criminal activities and then, balance that benefit against the paradox of empowerment. The balancing act is important because some aspects of the preventive remedies can unintentionally enable the very thing which society is striving to prevent.
Topic:
Development, Government, Politics, History, Inequality, Finance, Microeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa

30. Uncovering the Unknown: An Analysis of Tax Evasion in Zambia 2014

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The Government of the Republic of Zambia, like many other governments in the world, significantly relies on tax revenue to finance both its key infrastructure development and social services. Zambia’s tax revenue declined from 30% of GDP in the 1970s to only an average of 13% of GDP in the 1990s mainly due to the decline in mining revenue and weak tax administration. To address this decline, significant tax reforms were undertaken that included the creation of the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA). Despite these reforms, tax revenue collection has to a large extent been unsatisfactory, recording average tax revenue-to-GDP of 17% in the last five years. This study investigates the extent and causes of tax evasion in Zambia including the review of the current legal and administrative measures used by the ZRA in addressing this problem. To investigate tax evasion in Zambia, several methodologies or approaches are used. These include carrying out a qualitative survey on a small sample of large taxpayers to find out their perceptions on the causes of tax evasion in Zambia. In investigating the extent of tax evasion, the tax gap with respect to Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) personal income tax of the self-employed and paid employees is estimated using data from the nationally representative 2010 Living Conditions and Monitoring Survey (LCMS). Further, a comparative assessment of Zambia‘s tax revenue performance relative to countries in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is undertaken. The study also reviews the current legal and administrative measures used to address tax evasion.
Topic:
Government, Tax Systems, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

31. Can one retell a Mozambican reform story through Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation?

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Many public sector reforms in developing countries fail to make governments more functional. This is typically because reforms introduce new solutions that do not fit the contexts in which they are being placed. This situation reflects what has recently been called the 'capability trap' in development—which results in many interventions producing new forms that are not functional in states across the globe. The work on capability traps suggests that reforms can yield more functional influence in even the most complex states, however; if reformers adopt non-traditional approaches to doing reform. In particular, the work suggests that reforms will tend to be more contextually fitted if: (i) They are driven by problems that agents in the context care about; and (ii) They are introduced iteratively—through a stepwise process where ideas are tried and lessons are learned and used to adapt (or fit) ideas to context. The capability traps work embeds these ideas into an approach to doing reform called Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA). This approach has deep roots in various literatures but many observers still ask how PDIA-type reforms could work to foster successful reform in complex hierarchical developing country governments and whether these approaches really help foster reforms that better fit such complex contexts. This paper responds to such question by describing an action research study where PDIA is being used to retell a story of reform that has to date been limited. The action research study is in Mozambique’s judicial sector and will examine whether and how a problem driven iterative approach can (i) flush out the contextual factors that often limit reform success, (ii) provide a viable route to find and fit reforms that actually foster greater functionality, and (iii) promote the authority needed to ensure change is implemented and institutionalized.
Topic:
Government, Developing World, Reform, and Public Sector
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

32. Regional Sanctions against Burundi: A Powerful Campaign and Its Unintended Consequences

Author:
Julia Grauvogel
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of regionally imposed sanctions on the trajectory of the Burundian regime and its involvement in the peace process following the 1996 coup in the country. Despite the country's socioeconomic and geopolitical vulnerability, the Buyoya government withstood the pressure from the sanctions. Through a vocal campaign against these sanctions, the new government mitigated the embargo's economic consequences and partially reestablished its international reputation. Paradoxically, this campaign planted the seed for comprehensive political concessions in the long term. While previous literature has attributed the sanctions' success in pressuring the government into negotiations to their economic impact, the government actually responded to the sanction senders' key demand to engage in unconditional, inclusive peace talks under the auspices of the regional mediator once the economy had already started to recover. The regime's anti-sanctions campaign, with its emphasis on the government's willingness to engage in peace talks, backfired, with Buyoya forced to negotiate after having become entrapped in his own rhetoric.
Topic:
Government, Regime Change, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

33. Political Budget Cycles and Intergovernmental Transfers in a Dominant Party Framework: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Verena Kroth
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper tests the theory of context-conditional political budget cycles in South Africa's dominant party framework and demonstrates that the central government has both an incentive and the ability to implement PBCs on the subnational level. Using a unique panel dataset comprising South Africa's nine provinces over the period 1995–2010 generates two main results: First, provinces where the national ruling party faces greater electoral competition receive higher per capita transfers in the year before an election. Second, this increase is driven by the conditional grant, which is the nonformula-based component of total the intergovernmental transfer. The ability to implement political budget cycles is successfully constrained when it comes to the formula-based equitable share component of the total transfer for which no evidence of electorally-induced funding is found. Overall, the results suggest that even in a dominant party framework, political competition can function as an incentive to implement political budget cycles.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

34. The political economy of the fisheries sector in Uganda: ruling elites, implementation costs and industry interests

Author:
Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, and Tom Mwebaze
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper sets out to explain policies, implementation arrangements and results (PIRs) in Uganda's fisheries sector. Industry actors wanted to be able to keep up with European standards in order to survive in the chilled and frozen fillet export industry. They put pressure on ruling elites to support the establishment of effective hygiene and testing procedures. This helped the fishing industry succeed to an extent that helped create interests in the status quo. Fishermen, their dependents, and the fish processors all wanted to maintain a high level of fish catches. It was politically costly for ruling elites to enforce fisheries management because strict enforcement was unpopular with fishermen, as well as with many fishermen and security agents who benefitted from illegal fishing. Therefore, the success was not maintained: a pocket of efficiency was established with regard to hygiene and testing, but not with regard to enforcing fisheries management. Overfishing and the near collapse of the fishing sector were the results.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Europe

35. Coalition-driven initiatives in the Ugandan dairy sector: Elites, conflict, and bargaining

Author:
Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, and Tom Mwebaze
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The dairy sector is one of the only agricultural sectors in Uganda that has enjoyed sustained high growth since the late 1980s. Milk and the cold dairy chain developed especially in the south-western part of the country. This paper explains why this is so by the sector's relation to the ruling coalition. We argue that the dairy sector was relatively successful because the south-western based ruling elite wanted to build a support base in its home area. In addition, the elite had a special interest in dairy since key elite members owned dairy cattle themselves. As milk production grew, the ruling elite wanted to regulate the sector as this would help the big processor, the state owned and later privatized Dairy Corporation. Regulation was relatively successful and a pocket of bureaucratic efficiency was established in an agency called the Dairy Development Authority. The reason why regulation was enforced to a considerable extent was the organization of dairy farmers and traders and the bargaining and compromise with the Dairy Development Authority this organization of industry actors enabled.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, Government, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

36. Covering Elections: The Challenges of Training the Watchdogs

Author:
Rosemary Armao
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
An unparalleled opportunity for media developers to boost democracy is at hand in the Middle East and North Africa, where once repressed media and civil society groups are forming in the wake of popular uprisings that toppled or are threatening regimes. New constitutions are being drafted, new forms of government debated, and new representatives selected, all against a backdrop of new citizen empowerment and tension among differing parties if not, as in the case of Egypt, outright violence. In addition, new media and technology have radically changed both the political debate in societies and how that debate is covered compared to the past.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

37. Why Did Abolishing Fees Not Increase Public School Enrollment in Kenya?

Author:
Tessa Bold, Mwangi Kimenyi, Germano Mwabu, and Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A large empirical literature has shown that user fees signicantly deter public service utilization in developing countries. While most of these results reflect partial equilibrium analysis, we find that the nationwide abolition of public school fees in Kenya in 2003 led to no increase in net public enrollment rates, but rather a dramatic shift toward private schooling. Results suggest this divergence between partial- and general-equilibrium effects is partially explained by social interactions: the entry of poorer pupils into free education contributed to the exit of their more affluent peers.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

38. Preparing for the Future? Understanding the influence of development interventions on adaptive capacity at the local level in Uganda

Author:
Lindsey Jones, Frederik Ayorekire, Margaret Barihaihi, Anthony Kagoro, and Doreen Ruta
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Uganda faces the challenge of responding to rapidly changing climate and development pressures. At the local level, many communities do not have the tools, resources or capacity to adapt alone, and will require assistance and support from government and other development actors. Though most development interventions do not seek directly to address issues of climate change, the impacts of project support are likely to influence the ability of people and communities to respond and adapt to changing climate and development pressures. Yet, few development actors have considered how their interventions are influencing communities' adaptive capacity, and what can be done to further enhance it.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

39. "Let us Rebuild our Country" Migration-development scenarios in Ghana

Author:
Nauja Kleist
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In recent years, there has been a reconfiguration of the relationship between states and international migrants. From an overall perception of migration as a problem to be solved, a number of international development agencies, policy makers, and academics are taking the position that migration contributes to national development – if well managed. This aspiration indicates the (re-)discovery of non-resident citizens or former citizens as populations to be governed by their states of origin. The implications of this aspiration are examined in this working paper, focusing on migration-development scenarios in Ghana. The paper is inspired by anthropological and critical development studies on statecraft and public policy, approaching migration-development scenarios as a cultural and political object of study. Using the theatrical metaphor of scenario, it analyzes actually implemented policies as well as policy visions and debates, focusing on the underlying narratives and imaginaries of how migration and development are interlinked and can be governed.
Topic:
Development, Government, Migration, Sovereignty, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

40. Media, Civil Society and the State in Democratic Politics in Africa: The Case of South Africa

Author:
Sean Jacobs
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
The last two decades or so has seen an explosion of interest in the question of civil society and the role of media and information in democratic politics. Specifically for Africa, the development of strong civil societies is seen as vital for democratization and democratic stability and in thinking about the State. Much of the literature has a prescriptive tone, suggesting that the development of privately owned media enterprises is the key to the emergence of a fully functioning public sphere, in which government wrongdoing will be exposed and democratic debate can take place. In much of the writing, particularly by political scientists, dependence on the state is the main factor, along with resource constraints, lack of training, and inability to reach areas of the population that cripples media and its ability to nourish the free flow of ideas in civil society. However, this paper is less interested in how much we can expect from the kind of institutional reform implied by the scholarship mentioned above, but rather from the assumptions about the role of the state and the place of media in African politics. The paper will discuss these issues in the context of a very advanced and well-developed media system – that of democratic South Africa – to see how well it is fulfilling the expectation of this literature.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Africa