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1. Dark Spots in the International Commodity Value Chain: The Case of Copper in Zambia

Author:
Dale Mudenda and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper investigates mineral export misinvoicing in Zambia as a channel of capital flight, with a focus on copper, gold, and gemstones. The analysis reveals major discrepancies between Zambia’s recorded exports and imports as recorded by its trading partners. In the case of copper, a large share of exports recorded in Zambia as headed to Switzerland does not appear in Swiss imports. The ‘missing copper’ cannot be traced through analysis of trade between Switzerland and its major partners either. Gaps in the opposite direction are observed in Zambia-China trade, suggesting export underinvoicing, a common mechanism of capital flight. These do not offset the gaps observed in mirror trade statistics between Zambia and Switzerland, which remain a mystery. Similarly, whereas the primary destination recorded for Zambian gold exports is South Africa, these do not appear in gold imports recorded by South Africa. The gemstones sector is characterized by high informality that enables smuggling and export underinvoicing. Zambia must implement measures to curb misinvoicing of mineral exports and address structural opacity in the trade value chain if it hopes to maximize the gains from the exploitation of its mineral resources.
Topic:
Political Economy, Commodities, Exports, Global Value Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

2. The Egyptian Financial Crisis: Implications for the region, and for Israel too

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt continues to play an active role in regional affairs, including the Aqaba emergency meeting on the Palestinian situation (February 26) and the ongoing effort to prevent escalation in Gaza. At the same time, Cairo is in the middle of a significant financial crisis. The effects of the war in Ukraine – specifically, grain shortages – brought the Egyptian pound to more than 30 to the dollar, up from 20 in November and 15 in early 2022, facilitated by deliberate government action in response to demands by the IMF. Inflation still soars, and so does youth unemployment. All this could destabilize a nation of 105 million on our border, with dire consequences.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and MENA

3. The Future of EU Blended Finance and Guarantees: An Assessment of Cooperation Strategies with Least Developed Countries in Africa

Author:
Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+) is a core element of EU development cooperation and reflects the EU’s strong commitment to deploying blended finance and guarantees as development financing tools. This discussion paper examines the EU’s intentions concerning how the EFSD+ will be integrated into geographic programmes, focussing on the least developed countries (LDCs) in Africa. Based on a review of the Multiannual Indicative Programmes (MIPs) for 30 African LDCs as well as the regional MIP for Sub-Saharan Africa covering the period 2021-2027, the paper provides an overview of funding reserved for EFSD+ implementation in geographic programmes, identifies the expected EFSD+ sectoral priorities and summarises references to development finance institutions (DFIs) as EFSD+ implementation partners. This descriptive review highlights issues for the future monitoring and assessment of the EFSD+. The paper points to uncertainty about the magnitude of the management challenge that EU institutions face in EFSD+ implementation given the difficulties of predicting the scale of guarantee-backed operations in individual countries, the lack of information on the expected volume of blended finance operations, and the limited analysis of how EFSD+ tools relate to other EU funding approaches. The paper also notes that EU institutions should be more explicit about the criteria shaping EFSD+ resource commitments to clarify relevant prerequisites for the effective deployment of EFSD+ tools. Finally, the broad thematic scope for EFSD+ use implies that knowledge about how blended finance and guarantees function and how the financing approaches interact with other interventions needs to increase throughout the EU system.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Finance, Sustainability, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

4. Remittances and corruption perceptions in Africa

Author:
Alex Yeandle and David Doyle
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The relationship between remittances and corruption is contested. For some authors, external income endows individuals with financial buffers, which undermine these individuals’ incentive to hold governments to account and allow rent-seeking politicians to invest fewer resources in public goods. For others, remittance payments undermine clientelist networks and increase individual-level political engagement and accountability. For others still, remittances diffuse social norms, since senders are likely to live in large cities or wealthier countries where corruption is less tolerated. However, despite being rooted in individual-level assumptions, many of the conflicting results in the extant literature have an empirical focus at the aggregate level. In this paper we offer a corrective, explaining variation in individual-level perceptions of corruption among remittance recipients through a new mechanism. With survey data from 34 African countries, we show that recipients are endowed with greater cash income, which is used to bribe officials in the hope of securing preferential access to basic services. This act of paying bribes, coupled with the fact that access does not appear to improve, fuels perceptions that the government is corrupt.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Leadership, Accountability, and Bribery
Political Geography:
Africa

5. Keeping tabs? Perceptions of relative deprivation and political trust in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature has shown that macroeconomic performance (including levels of inequality) and evaluations shape political trust. This paper addresses two gaps in the literature by focusing on the role of individual perceptions and subjective experiences of inequality and by studying cases in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data collected from more than 40,000 respondents in 34 African countries between late 2016 and mid-2018, I use multi-level modelling to demonstrate that perceptions of relative deprivation are significantly associated with less trust in representative government institutions and, more weakly, with less trust in state institutions. The effect of perceptions of relative deprivation remains significant when controlling for macroeconomic conditions and performance evaluations. In effect size, trust in representative government institutions is at least comparable to frequently cited covariates of trust such as location, level of education, and government economic performance, suggesting that perceived relative deprivation is indeed an important covariate of such trust. Feeling relatively advantaged is also significantly associated with greater trust in representative government institutions. This may reflect strong neo-patrimonial ties between citizens and political agents. In demonstrating that individual-level economic considerations affect political trust in Africa, we challenge the conventional wisdom that only macroeconomic factors affect trust.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa

6. Explaining the experience of political violence in Nigeria

Author:
Tunde A. Alabi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Violence has been part of Nigeria’s politics since before political independence. While there have been attempts to understand why political violence happens in the country, little emphasis has been placed on explanatory factors for political-violence victimisation. This study investigates the influence of socio-demographic characteristics, presence of security apparatus, partisanship, political participation, and social group membership on the experience of political violence in Nigeria and examines how the influence of these factors varies between Northern and Southern Nigeria – two regions with major social and cultural differences. The study analyses data from the seventh round of the Afrobarometer survey, which were collected in 2017 from 1,568 adults across the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Multiple linear regression models were fitted. Our analysis finds that about one in four persons has experienced at least one form of political violence. Living in the South, being young, being poor, living in an area with no police presence, being partisan, participating in politics, and being active in social groups increase the likelihood of political-violence victimisation. While women were more likely than men to experience political violence in the North, the reverse is the case in the South. Regional variation is also observed in the influence of political participation and the degree of the effect of party affiliation and social group membership.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Gender Issues, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

7. Nigeria’s 2023 Election: Democratic Development and Political Fragmentation

Author:
Sa'eed Husaini
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Nigerians will go to the polls on February 25 to elect a new president and members of the National Assembly. This marks the 7th in an unbroken sequence of presidential elections held since the country’s return to democracy in 1999. With President Muhammadu Buhari unable to compete in the election having served two full terms, the unpopular ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party will face a formidable challenge, not only from its traditional rival, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), but also from an unprecedented ‘third party’ challenger – a previously marginal but now surging Labour Party. This paper analyzes Nigeria’s 2023 election not only in the context of this unique partisan configuration, but also considering the wider set of factors that will, in all probability, influence the organization and the outcome of the election. These factors include the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission and especially its capacity to properly deploy its newly acquired biometric and result transmission technologies. In addition, the analysis explores the ways in which the voting process and result will also reflect the limitations and risks imposed by Nigeria’s current climate of chronic insecurity, resulting from active armed militia and criminal groups operating across nearly all regions, but particularly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South-south. Insecurity has likewise coincided with rising elite polarization and the breakdown of the “zoning’ consensus ahead of the election, elevating the importance of identitarian political rhetoric in the campaigns. While insecurity appears likely to contribute to the trend of declining voter turnouts observed in previous elections, the apparent increase in political interest, particularly among young voters, as reflected in the spike in the collection of voters cards ahead of the election might mark a countervailing trend. Against this backdrop, the paper also considers the major parties, candidates, their political projects as well as their target constituencies. It finds that the parties articulated moderately divergent emphases while remaining largely consonant on the contentious economic questions of the period. It also considers possible elections scenarios that may result from the varying institutional and political characteristics of the main parties. Ultimately, it finds that the 2023 poll will represent the continued evolution of Nigerian electoral institutions and political participation in a context of lingering social division and insecurity.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Political Parties, Presidential Elections, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

8. African Media Cultures and Chinese Public Relations Strategies in Kenya and Ethiopia

Author:
Hangwei Li and Yuan Wang
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. With a generous multiyear grant from the Ford Foundation, Carnegie has launched an innovative body of research on Chinese engagement strategies in seven regions of the world—Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Through a mix of research and strategic convening, this project explores these complex dynamics, including the ways Chinese firms are adapting to local labor laws in Latin America, Chinese banks and funds are exploring traditional Islamic financial and credit products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and Chinese actors are helping local workers upgrade their skills in Central Asia. These adaptive Chinese strategies that accommodate and work within local realities are mostly ignored by Western policymakers in particular. Ultimately, the project aims to significantly broaden understanding and debate about China’s role in the world and to generate innovative policy ideas. These could enable local players to better channel Chinese energies to support their societies and economies; provide lessons for Western engagement around the world, especially in developing countries; help China’s own policy community learn from the diversity of Chinese experience; and potentially reduce frictions.
Topic:
Development, Media, Public Relations, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, China, and Ethiopia

9. Will the Invasion of Ukraine Change Russia-Africa Relations?

Author:
Ronak Gopaldas
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With ties forged under Soviet rule, Russia has historically enjoyed warm relations with many African countries, as their economic and ideological ambitions often align and their ties are bolstered by a mutual mistrust of the West. The spread of Africa’s votes on United Nations (UN) resolutions to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, indicates three key themes. Firstly, many African countries are pulled in competing directions by broader global geopolitics—for many, abstaining was the rational choice. Secondly, Russia’s support on the continent may be overstated and is not unconditional. Finally, Russian influence is often limited by the extent to which it can influence the political elite of a country and in some cases co-opt that elite into patronage networks. The split in the way African countries voted to condemn Russia’s actions is an important departure point for an exploration of the changing nature of Africa’s ties to Russia. There have been myriad interpretations of the votes, most of which have focused on the failure of several African countries to denounce the invasion. Few have questioned whether the nonaligned stances of these countries were tacit refusals to be used as supporting actors in public displays of condemnation by the United States and European Union (EU), to distract from the inability to offer meaningful practical or military support. Fewer still have explored whether the nonaligned stances signal weakening Russian influence on a continent it has typically relied on for support. This paper examines political relations between Russia and Africa, delving into the legacy of independence, military support, diplomatic and foreign policy stances, aid, foreign direct investment, and trade. It will also unpack whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a catalyst for what appears to be Russia’s diminishing influence or whether the former Soviet Union’s waning global standing and economic relevance precipitated a loosening of ties. The fluidity of geopolitics has left many African states between a rock and a hard place. What does this mean for Africa, not only in terms of its relationship to Russia but also more broadly on the geopolitical stage? Further, how would Africa be positioned on the global stage should Russia prevail, should the war drag on, or, more interestingly, should Ukraine emerge victorious?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

10. Why Women Haven’t Been Successful in Nigerian Elections

Author:
Elor Nkereuwem
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Women’s representation in Nigerian politics has been on a downward slide since 2011, and the 2023 elections in Africa’s largest economy confirmed the expectations of poor outcomes for women. The number of women in Nigeria’s National Assembly has fallen by 19 percent compared to the last assembly, with women now occupying 3 percent of seats in the Senate and 4 percent in the House of Representatives.1 To understand why Nigerian women performed so poorly in the recent elections, the 2022 primary elections provided insight into the challenges and barriers faced by women aspirants and candidates. The results of the various parties’ primary elections highlight enduring limitations to women’s representation in competitive politics in Nigeria. The country ranks in the bottom ten globally in women’s representation in national parliaments, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).2 This challenge of representation persists in spite of the near parity of voter registration between men and women in past election cycles.3
Topic:
Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Representation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

11. Why Morocco’s Youth Employment Policies Continue to Fail

Author:
Ismail Ait Bassou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Although Morocco has launched several programs designed to provide job opportunities for young people, youth unemployment rates remain high. This paper argues these programs have proven ineffective and are compounded by an unsustainable business environment, and presents some recommendations to ensure the planned reforms in the youth employment sector deliver on what they promise.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

12. The Implications of Financial Development for Economic Growth in CEMAC

Author:
Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) has experienced sluggish economic growth. This has fallen from 4.86% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2021 (World Bank, 2021), a drop of 4.82 percentage points in a decade. In addition to the high vulnerability of economies to exogenous shocks, several economists such as Asteriou & Spanos (2019) attribute the slowdown in growth to the underdevelopment of the financial sector. In CEMAC, the access of populations to mobile money or commercial bank deposit services has undoubtedly become insufficient to keep economies on a sustainable and inclusive growth path. This article reviews the evolution of financial development indicators in the CEMAC zone since 2013, and its impact on the performance of states in terms of economic growth. We use secondary data collected from the World Bank and the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), between 2013 and 2021. The analysis provides public authorities in CEMAC with arguments to promote financial development in the sub-region to boost economic growth, and better take advantage of the opportunities of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The paper is structured in two sections. Section 1 presents the evolution of financial development indicators in CEMAC and section 2, the implications for economic growth and sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, Regional Cooperation, Finance, Economic Growth, and CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community)
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

13. Financial Autonomy of Decentralized Local Authorities and Local Development

Author:
Herve Ondoua, Bin Meh, Boris Andzanga Ndzana, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The financial autonomy of Decentralized Territorial Collectivities (DTCs) is today considered as the foundation of local governance. It confers decision-making power in financial matters to municipalities and regions, as well as a certain level of independence in the management of the resources at their disposal. In Cameroon, the general principles of financial autonomy are defined in the law on the General Code of DTCs, in particular in the Fifth Book, which repeals the law establishing the financial regime of local authorities and that on the financial regime of the State. Thus, financial autonomy should enable DTCs to develop by using their own resources in improving the living conditions of their populations. Despite these powers, DTCs still depend for the most part on income from municipal taxes and income transferred by the State. However, DTCs in Cameroon have real economic and financial potential but not a degree of financial autonomy that would allow them to accelerate the development of their locality. This reflection is aimed at local elected officials, political authorities, government authorities and civil society, with the aim of examining the effectiveness of financial autonomy in the face of the economic and financial potential of DTCs and their ability to implement their own local development projects. This article relates financial autonomy and local governance, on the one hand, and shows how financial autonomy is a factor of valorization of local resources, on the other hand.
Topic:
Development, Government, Finance, Local, Decentralization, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

14. What Synergy of Action in the Fight Against Corruption in Cameroon?

Author:
Theophile Nguimfack Voufo
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The phenomenon of corruption is growing so much in Cameroon, to the point where we must be careful that it does not become a characteristic of Cameroonian identity. Cameroon has twice held the rank of the highest corruption index in the world.[1] However, the will of the public authorities to put an end to it is matched only by the determination of the actors of corruption to escape the meshes of the control mechanisms. Given the government strategy and the proliferation of organizations fighting against corruption, one could expect a significant reduction of this scourge in Cameroon. But like a hydra, corruption remains a major problem in Cameroonian society. A substantial literature has been able to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of administrative, political, and jurisdictional bodies in the fight against corruption.[2] Among other weaknesses are prominently the subordination of the power of sanction to the will of the president of the Republic, the politicization of special operations to fight against corruption, and the lethargy of certain control bodies. The creation of the NACC, an organization specializing in the fight against corruption, has created hope in Cameroon. But, the decree fixing its attributions does not give it its own power of sanction. Consequently, NACC limits itself to noting the facts of corruption and reports them to the public authorities or seizes the judge by denunciation. This technique of referral by denunciation was mainly oriented toward the judicial judge. In practice, however, NACC had to experiment with referral to the Audit Bench of the Supreme Court, which opens up the prospect of collaboration between these two bodies in the fight against corruption in Cameroon. The question arises as to how NACC and the jurisdiction of accounts can combine their actions in the fight against corruption in Cameroon. After analysis, it appears that the ways of functional collaboration between the two organizations exist (I); however, they require some operational coordination (II).
Topic:
Corruption, Courts, Bureaucracy, and Efficiency
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

15. The Russian-Ukrainian War: An Opportunity to Strengthen the AfCFTA

Author:
Steve Tametong and Venessa Aboudi
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The world had hardly covered from the horrors of the COVID-19 pandemic when it was once again tested on February 24, 2022, by the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. The consequences of this war are quite significant for humanity. On the economic level, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has highlighted the disadvantages of globalization, understood as a process marked by the interconnection and interdependence of world economies. The inflationary shock and the food crisis resulting from the inoperative nature of import channels for certain basic necessities from Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated the fragility of the economies. With regard to African countries, in particular, the prices of several basic food products (wheat, flour, rice, maize, bread, vegetable oil, etc.) have risen sharply. Indeed, most African countries are almost dependent on the import of agricultural products and seeds from the two belligerent countries. These imports correspond to 35 billion US dollars of imports each year (1). This appears to be an incongruity given the extent of arable land on the African continent. The low production and especially processing capacity increases the dependence of African economies on the import of these basic products. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes it possible to question the economic resilience of African States, that is to say, their “capacity [ to] keep output close to [their] potential despite a shock ” (2). Above all, it offers the opportunity to analyze the economic and commercial potential of the AfCFTA in the process of building the resilience of African economies to external shocks. Indeed, the AfCFTA was officially launched in January 2021 with the main objective of “creating a single market for goods and services facilitated by the movement of people in order to deepen the economic integration of the African continent…” (3). This policy note is structured around the idea that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in view of its socio-economic consequences on the African continent, offers an opportunity for African countries to work toward the strengthening of the AfCFTA. So that it appears as a real pole of competitiveness and inter-African trade likely to counter the shocks and uncertainties of the dynamics of world trade. Before analyzing the AfCFTA as a pole of production and export of African products (II), it is necessary to take stock of the socio-economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on African economies (I).
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, Free Trade, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

16. Entrepreneurship, Youths, and Women Economic Inclusion in Cameroon

Author:
Laurent Brice Nsengue, Bin Joachem Meh, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Bentham’s theory of utilitarian morality leads us to know that the purpose of economic activity is to ensure social progress for the happiness of the greatest number. Thus, excluding people from an economic system without considering their interests is considered a destruction of the common good. According to the United Nations (1962), population is one of the most important factors of economic productivity, as it influences the rate of development of a country. Women represent 49.6% of the world’s population and young people aged 10 to 24 represent 15.5% of the world’s population (UN World Youth Report, 2020; World Bank, 2020). In Cameroon, youth and women represent more than 60% of the population, but remain the most economically excluded (BUCREP, 2005). This reality appears to be a challenge for a country that wants to be an emerging country by 2035. The main objective of this paper is to show the role that entrepreneurial development could play in promoting the economic inclusion of youth and women in Cameroon. It is expected to raise awareness among public authorities as well as the private sector of the importance of economic inclusion of youth and women through entrepreneurship development. Based on studies carried out by credible international and local institutions, we focus on the challenges of entrepreneurship in the context of the economic inclusion of youth and women and the opportunity of entrepreneurship for the economic inclusion of young people and women in Cameroon.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Entrepreneurship, Discrimination, Youth, Equality, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

17. Universal Basic Income: A Primer for Poverty Reduction in Africa

Author:
Bin Joachem Meh, Ntoubia Larissa, and Ondoua Herve
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Universal basic income (UBI) scheme provides regular payment in cash to everyone in the economy irrespective of their social, economic, financial, and political status. UBI has a direct effect on poverty reduction; this implies that providing cash to everyone in the society irrespective of their financial status will reduce the rate of poverty as citizens will be able to meet basic needs such as food, housing, and clothing especially if this basic income amount is above the poverty line. For others, UBI will only increase inequality and poverty especially in developing countries who lack finances to provide such income to everyone in the society (Robert, 2019). UBI is a simple and practical solution to eradicating poverty, by giving everyone a minimum income, regardless of whether they are young, old, employed or unemployed, the government can tackle poverty reduction (Centre for Social Justice, 2018). More recently UBI has been a major issue of concern and it is seen as the answer to wider problems of technological unemployment, wealth inequality, mental health stability and social mobility. In India, UBI improved mental and physical health and in Namibia UBI program reduced household poverty from 76% to 37% in one year (Johanna, 2014). The high poverty rate and the scanty nature of the UBI literature in Africa makes this study an important contribution to the body of knowledge and further enable policy makers to reflect on the implementation of UBI principle. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of universal basic income on narrowing the poverty gap in Africa. The rest of the paper will bring out the role of UBI in poverty reduction, and propose some policy recommendations for the introduction of the UBI in Africa.
Topic:
Poverty, Universal Basic Income, Humanitarian Crisis, Wages, and Income
Political Geography:
Africa

18. The African Continental Free Trade Area: A boon for the “Africa We Want” by 2063?

Author:
Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
One of the major objectives set by the African Union (AU) in Agenda 2063, is to achieve a “prosperous Africa, based on inclusive and sustainable growth”. To ensure the prosperity of the people, especially of women and youth, member states have, in the first ten years of the adoption of this agenda, taken a number of initiatives to strengthen economic integration of the continent. Among these initiatives, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in January 2021, occupies a prominent place. In launching the AfCFTA, and making it effective, the intention of the AU is to overcome the historical fragmentation and isolation of the various African economies. The challenge is to open them up to new global trade opportunities and improve transport and communication links across the continent. However, not all AU member countries have ratified this major project. The objective of this article is to take stock of the economic integration process that has been set in motion with the effective entry into force of the AfCFTA. It highlights, on the one hand, the main reasons that justify the reluctance of states that have not yet signed the AfCFTA agreement and, on the other hand, outlines the opportunities offered by AfCFTA for an Africa that wants to emerge as a strong, united and influential player and partner on the world stage.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Free Trade, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

19. Cameroon: The State’s Transfer of Powers to the Regions

Author:
Pacome Vouffo
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
If there is one thing that is hardly debatable in legal science, it is the evolution of law through constitutional or legislative textual reform on a given issue. The issue of decentralisation in Cameroon is an illustration. The constitutional and legislative dynamics since independence reflect this, particularly with the inclusion of local authorities in the Constitution of 4 March 1960, the 1974 laws applicable to the Communes and their subsequent amendments , the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996 explicitly raising decentralisation to the constitutional rank , the laws of 22 July 2004 on decentralisation and today Law No. 2019/024 of 24 December 2019 to lay down the General Code of Regional and local authorities(CGCTD). This Code enshrines an evolution in decentralisation law and sets out the terms and conditions for the exercise by the State of powers transferred to regional and local authorities in general and to the Regions in particular. From a legal point of view, this reframing does not seem to have aroused the interest of the doctrine in the same way as the question of the special regime for the North-West and South-West Regions, which has been addressed . In view of its scope, however, it is easy to admit that the legislator has made a significant change. It is necessary to examine the contours of this evolution in order to untangle the threads and consequently set the markers for understanding, following an approach based solely on the Regions as a framework for analysis and not on all the Regional and Local Authorities. Indeed, the choice of the Regions as the analytical framework is not insignificant. As the first level of decentralisation in Cameroon, the Region has only recently been established since its consecration in 1996. It is the characteristic of regionalism instituted since the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996. This regionalism is legally translated by the erection in 1996 of administrative provinces into Regions, headed by a President, an indigenous personality of the Region elected by his peers , and an elected Regional Council whose political colouring prints a mixture of traditional chiefs with the other departmental Councils. Compared to the Commune, therefore, the Region is a new feature of decentralisation which finds its basis in the controversy that took place during the 1996 reform on the form of the State between the supporters of the centralised State and those of the federal State. According to the doctrine, it is a point of agreement between these two (02) trends. When we know that regionalism as a technique for organising the unitary State is an advanced version of decentralisation that could border on federalism without being one, we can only subscribe to the idea that the Region is the point of agreement that would have federated the actors of the 1996 reform. With these considerations in mind, the attention given to the Region is justified. Following this logic, it must be agreed that the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the Regions did not disappear with the advent of the CGCTD, as some authors have suggested. It was maintained, however, with a reform of the legal framework that underpins an evolution in this area. If yesterday, the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the local and regional authorities in general and to the Regions in particular was legally self-evident (I), in the current state of Cameroonian decentralisation law, it is now only a possibility (II).
Topic:
Governance, Reform, State, and Local
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

20. The Regional Administrative Structure in Cameroon

Author:
Ebenezer David Ngahna Mangmadi
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Be it from a common law or a special status, a regional and local authorities[1] resulting from the constitutional reform of January 18, 1996[2], has an administration in charge of instructing and implementing the decisions taken by its executive organs. Under the authority of a secretary general who is appointed by the President of the Republic[3], it is implemented according to the standard organisation set out in decree n°2021/742 of 28 December 2021. It should be noted that this important legal text taken in application of article 496 of law n°2019/024 of 24 December 2009 on the general code of regional and local authorities (hereafter CGCTD), has greatly contributed to the acceleration of the process of establishing the regions initiated by the elections of December 6, 2020. The configuration of the standard model of regional administration that it suggests, highlights a complex combination of structures with diverse functions, the articulation of which may vary from case to case. This organisational scheme reveals the extent of the tasks that a regional administration must undertake, but it is not easy to access. As such, it deserves to be explained. This note is intended for professionals in the field of decentralisation, researchers and citizens seeking information. More clearly, the aim is to inform the reader about the subtleties of the structuring of the regional administration. To achieve this, it relies on an interpretive approach to the texts, mainly, the law n°2019/024 of 24 December 2019, and the decree of 28 December 2021. After presenting the different structures of the regional administration (I), the text will dwell on their articulation (II).
Topic:
Government, Local, Decentralization, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

21. Moving on Up: Multilevel Monitoring and Advocacy for Health Rights

Author:
Abrehet Gebremedhin
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Multilevel approaches to monitoring and advocacy are often used by international development practitioners, particularly in civil society, in efforts to hold governments—from the national to the local—to account for policy implementation. However, such approaches are not yet well understood or identified by many scholars in the social accountability field. This evidence review addresses this gap through a cross-case comparison of multilevel approaches in ten health rights programs across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It draws on published evaluations, working papers, and peer-reviewed journal articles, as well as insights shared by implementers and researchers. Cases were selected to illustrate health rights initiatives that included monitoring or advocacy activity at a minimum of two different levels: local health facility, district, regional, provincial or national. Four significant findings emerge from this review of evidence: Vertical integration is a relatively common feature of multilevel monitoring and advocacy in these ten cases and is most likely to take place at the lower ends of the health system. However, it is largely implicit, and often not articulated in project design or theories of change. Horizontal organizing—the coordination of civil society action across districts or geographies—is a less visible feature of multilevel approaches to health rights programming than vertical integration. Despite the multilevel nature of health monitoring and advocacy in these ten cases, less than half reported working at the regional or provincial level, indicating a ‘missing middle’ between local and national activity. Escalation—the process by which citizens’ unaddressed claims move upwards to those with greater decision- making powers—is an important mechanism for accountability and one way in which vertical integration can happen. However, escalation is not clearly articulated in much of the gray literature, and therefore merits further research. The findings from this evidence review have implications for strategy, including: the importance of explicitly identifying multilevel tactics for monitoring and advocacy; theorizing the process by which unaddressed claims can be addressed, particularly moving up beyond the local level; emphasizing the importance of the ‘middle’ and ensuring regional and provincial decision-making is leveraged; and looking to link vertical integration with opportunities for horizontal organizing.
Topic:
Civil Society, Health, Accountability, Advocacy, and Monitoring
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Latin America

22. Does Project-Level Aid for Water and Sanitation Improve Child Health Outcomes? Evidence from Household Panel Data in Uganda

Author:
Lynda Pickbourn, Raymond Caraher, and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Empirical studies on the effectiveness of aid to the water, sanitation, and hygiene sector (WASH aid) have focused primarily on access to these services as the benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of aid in this sector. Given the importance of WASH services for public health outcomes, the effectiveness of WASH aid should also be evaluated in terms of its impact on health outcomes. This is especially important in low- and middle-income countries where achieving sustained improvements in child health outcomes remains a challenge. This paper uses geocoded sub-national data on the location of WASH aid projects in Uganda in conjunction with six waves of nationally representative household-level panel survey data to examine the impact of aid-funded WASH projects on the probability of stunting among Ugandan children and infants. Analysing aid effectiveness at the sub-national level avoids the problems of cross-country heterogeneity in aid effectiveness that plagues other studies. Results of the difference-in-differences regression analysis suggest that proximity to an aid-funded WASH project reduces the probability of stunting by 14–21 per cent. The results suggest that scaling up aid to the WASH sector can help improve child health outcomes in the country.
Topic:
Health, Humanitarian Aid, Water, Sanitation, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

23. Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes

Author:
Theshne Kisten
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of financial frictions in the public debt–growth nexus, documenting that a public debt shock has different macro-financial implications dependent on the state of financial markets in South Africa. A non-linear vector autoregression model is estimated which allows the transmission mechanism to be characterized by two distinct financial regimes: stressful versus normal. The empirical results suggest that a public debt shock has a broadly insignificant impact on economic growth over the full sample, reflecting the ineffectiveness of government borrowing in stimulating the economy, and could suggest that the high and growing debt service costs faced by the government reduces funds available for investment purposes. Debt shocks are found to be deflationary in both regimes, lending support to the precautionary savings effect and the existence of a well-developed financial market, while interest rates decline with the immediate impact being moderately larger in the stress regime, providing evidence of the accommodative stance between fiscal policy and monetary policy. In response to a public debt shock, financial conditions show an immediate and transitory improvement in the high-stress regime; however, in the low-stress regime there is an immediate yet negligible improvement in financial conditions. Lastly, the responses evolve over time, with fiscal policy being less effective in stimulating the economy in the post-crisis period, but it has been effective in reducing financial stress in the high-stress regime.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Economic Growth, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

24. Nation building in post-conflict settings: Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Thomas Gautier, Daniela Horta-Saenz, and Gianluca Russo
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How do states rebuild nations after a major conflict? Truth and Reconciliation Commissions (TRCs) have emerged as one of the most common interventions to achieve this objective. Despite their popularity, little is known about their efficacy to foster reconciliation and nation building. We fill this gap by studying the seminal TRC established in South Africa after the end of the Apartheid. To measure exposure to TRC across South African municipalities, we leverage quasi-random variation in media coverage of the TRC message. South African municipalities with higher historical exposure to TRC on media have lower levels of violence today. This effect is driven by improved nation building and higher trust towards post-Apartheid institutions. Exploiting daily variation in TRC hearings and mediatic exposure in the short run, we bolster our interpretation that our long-run results are forged in the years of TRC activity. The same evidence suggests that our results are driven by the coverage of TRC on media as opposed to generic media exposure.
Topic:
Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, Trust, Nation Building, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

25. Gendered implications of the waves of COVID19 and economic upgrading trajectories in digital value chains: Insights from Kenyan agricultural platforms

Author:
Aarti Krishnan, Monica Nganga, and Tim Foster
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Women play a critical yet under-researched role in global digital agri-food value chains, especially in smallholder production, which affects how they are able to economically upgrade (improve crop yields and product quality, and increase product diversification). Research suggests that women’s participation in agricultural platform-driven value chains facilitates the overcoming of barriers such as access to productive resources and engenders upgrading. However, studies have shown mixed evidence of the benefits of ag-platforms, and there are very limited data on female farmers’ contribution. Their economic upgrading possibilities are further compounded by the onset of shocks such as COVID-19. Predominantly only anecdotal evidence exists of how such shocks impact women in agriculture generally, let alone those using digital platforms. This paper seeks to answer the question: To what extent has the intensity of COVID-19 affected economic upgrading possibilities for women in platform-driven ag-value chains? The paper attempts to unpack economic upgrading through the different regimes of COVID-19, illustrating the dynamic effects experienced by women living through the shock. The paper uses a mixed methods approach, combining daily transaction data for over 3,000 farmers from 2019 to 2021 with 40 interviews of various value chain actors. The results show that women have been able to upgrade through the shock in terms of crop productivity and product quality more successfully than men, although there are differences across the different regimes of COVID-19; however, women have downgraded in terms of product diversification. The results are robust using pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and seemingly unrelated regressions. The paper highlights a critical need to unpack shocks as a succession of regimes, rather than treating them as homogeneous entities, in order to provide a more holistic understanding of how women cope.
Topic:
Agriculture, COVID-19, Value Chains, and Gender
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

26. Language and student learning: Evidence from an ethnographic study in Mozambique

Author:
Feliciano Chimbutane and Ritva Reinikka
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This ethnographic study explores the implementation of bilingual education in Mozambique: how it is understood, adapted, and resisted by school directors, teachers, and local officials. Bilingual education uses local languages in early grades before a gradual shift into Portuguese, which most Mozambican children do not speak when entering school. Our study confirms that students participate actively and understand content better in bilingual classes. Regardless of education policy, school directors decide whether or not to form bilingual classes. They report pressure from parents for Portuguese-only instruction because of misunderstanding about the nature of bilingual education, poor resourcing, and fears about students failing tests. Some teachers demonstrate an impressive ability to provide bilingual education despite a lack of training and materials. Others resist and do little to hide their negative attitude. District officers are not able to supply schools with basic materials for local-language teaching. We conclude that bilingual education has lost momentum in Mozambique.
Topic:
Education, Ethnography, Language, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

27. Employment transitions with high unemployment and a small informal sector: Examining worker flows during normal and recessionary periods in South Africa

Author:
Shakeba Foster
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines employment transitions in the South African labour market. Using the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series, it analyses flows between the formal sector, informal sector, and unemployment, paying specific attention to how these flows differ during recessions. It explicitly considers heterogeneity within the informal sector by separately accounting for wage employment and self-employment as well as upper-tier and lower-tier informal sector segments. Transition probabilities are estimated using dynamic discrete choice models, and the extent to which transitions affect changes in real wages is estimated using a linear model. The results provide evidence of heterogeneity within the informal sector and segmentation between wage employment and self-employment. They also show a lag in the employment impacts following a recession. Finally, the paper provides suggestive evidence that the upper-tier segment of the informal sector acts as a buffer during recessionary periods by absorbing labour that would otherwise be unemployed or relegated to precarious lower-tier informal employment.
Topic:
Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Recession
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

28. India’s development cooperation in Africa: The case of ‘Solar Mamas’ who bring light

Author:
Veda Vaidyanathan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines multiple facets of New Delhi’s development cooperation with countries in Africa and argues that grassroots organizations in India that find innovative, low-cost technological solutions to developmental challenges can help governments and multilateral agencies craft inclusive, sustainable policies. The aim of this paper is threefold. First, to understand the major actors, instruments, themes, and mechanisms that make up India’s Development cooperation towards countries in Africa and how these usher in a new dimension of ‘South–South cooperation’. Second, the paper will explore the role of grassroots organizations that have found localized solutions in India that then export their learnings to other geographies and how they craft a unique role for themselves in India’s broader development cooperation framework. To explore this idea further, the paper will utilize the case study of a community-based grassroots organization, Barefoot College, Tilonia, founded by Sanjit Bunker Roy in 1972, and its solar programme. The college trains women from unelectrified, remote communities to become solar engineers who then return to their rural villages with the ability to harness solar power, earning them the title of ‘Solar Mamas’. Third, this paper argues that the uneven, fragmented Indian experience of designing development assistance programmes provides an important non-western perspective that can help decision makers craft policies for an era beyond aid.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa and India

29. Fiscal dependence on extractive revenues: Measurement and concepts

Author:
Kyle McNabb
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The aims of this paper are twofold. It firstly identifies and discusses the extent to which public revenues from natural resources are adequately captured in existing cross-country revenue databases, before exploring the extent to which such data can be used to estimate countries’ fiscal dependence on extractives. I first discuss key conceptual, definitional and measurement issues, before comparing the coverage of key existing databases, notably the UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD). I then propose a new measure of fiscal dependence on extractive revenues (FDE). Whilst a number of existing studies have attempted to better quantify countries’ resource dependence, to the best of my knowledge none has yet proposed an indicator that ties the idea of dependence to any outcomes. The FDE simply calculates the extent to which extractive-producing countries can fund day-to-day government spending with non-extractive revenues. I find that the FDE is strongly correlated with existing measures of extractive dependence but can ultimately tell us more about countries’ fiscal positions and resulting vulnerability to shocks to revenue or government spending.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Extractive Industries, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and India

30. Absolute or relative: perceptions of inequality among young adults in Mozambique

Author:
Giulia Barletta, Ines A. Ferreira, and Vincenzo Salvucci
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Different concepts of inequality lead to different positions in discussions about whether economic growth leads to increasing inequality. This study investigates how over 1,100 young adults in Mozambique perceive inequality and whether their perceptions are based on relative or absolute terms. It follows the line of work which examines attitudes (perceptions and preferences) towards different distributional axioms, and focuses on scale and translation invariance. Most of our respondents believe that inequality in their neighbourhood is too high and that circumstances beyond their control explain why some people are poor. We conclude that, while some respondents think in absolute terms, many do not agree with either the scale-invariance or the translation-invariance axioms, and there is great variation depending on the scenario presented to the respondents. We find some correlation between their way of thinking and gender, but no clear link with level of education and type of employment.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Economic Growth, Youth, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

31. Migration out of poverty: The case of post-war migration in Mozambique

Author:
Maimuna Ibraimo and Eva-Maria Egger
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Internal migration plays an important role in the economic development of individuals, their families, and their country. This study describes Mozambique’s most common migration patterns from 1992 until 2017 using data from three population censuses. We focus on the most important moves between regions, provinces, and rural and urban areas. Further, we document the characteristics of migrants to assess selection patterns. In the final step, we estimate the relationship between migration and multidimensional poverty by applying inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA). We find that migration in Mozambique was very high, especially between rural areas, after the war ended as people returned from displacement. Still, it is very low in the most recent period. Recently, migration has been the main contributor to the urbanization of the greater Maputo area (capital city). Migrants appear to be positively selected on education, and are, on average, less likely to be poor.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, Displacement, Rural, Economic Development, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

32. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:
Marine Gassier
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

33. Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

34. China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

35. South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, BRICS, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and South Africa

36. The political economy of energy production in post-independence Tanzania: A review

Author:
Japhace Poncian and Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In Tanzania, energy production is a matter of great political significance. Despite government commitment to promote non-hydro renewable energy, like solar and wind deployment, so far has been limited. Large, non-hydro, renewable projects have not yet attracted adequate government interest to get implemented. This new DIIS Working Paper suggests that the prioritisation of different sources of energy has been influenced by major shifts in the country’s broader development policy priorities. Access to electricity has in turn been scaled up. These developments point to the importance of political economy factors influencing energy sector development in Tanzania. The paper examines how such factors have influenced government energy source choice and, more importantly, how renewable energy has featured in Tanzania’s energy politics since independence. The paper is based on a review of existing academic and grey literature on energy sector development, reform, and politics throughout the period from independence in 1961 to 2021.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Renewable Energy, Independence, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

37. Climate change adaptation relevance of Tanzania’s national budget

Author:
Noah Pauline, Peter Rogers, Edmund Mabhuye, Beatrice Sumari, Lucas Katera, Jamal Msami, Per Tidemand, and Esbern Friis-Hansen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In Tanzania, climate change adaptation is financed by international development assistance and by nationally generated revenue. While international development assistance is registered by OECD and climate change adaptation relevance tagged by donors, the proportion of the nationally generated revenue that is climate change adaptation relevant is unknown. This DIIS Working Paper analyses the climate change adaptation relevance of the national budget (from 2014 to 2022), using the same methodology applied in a previous study (Yanda et al., 2013). The study further assesses the degree to which climate change adaptation financed is devolved to local government. The study finds that a disproportionately high proportion of climate adaptation finance is used at central government levels due to priorities being established at the ministry level. Moreover, the study finds that local governments lack discretion over climate change adaptation finance due to the country’s highly centralised policies, practices and procedures. Qualitative fieldwork indicates that nearly all climate change adaptation finance accessed by local governments comes with a central government tag (directive) on how to use it.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Budget, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

38. Inclusion and exclusion in Somali drought emergency assistance

Author:
Ahmed Musa
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
When drought or other emergencies strike in the Somali regions, the first responders are Somalis themselves, not the international humanitarian system. Based on family, kinship and more distant social ties, Somalis mobilise and deliver various forms of emergency assistance to the affected communities. Yet, mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion vary significantly, pending on the closeness of social ties, the power relations between local and international actors, and the number and forms of intermediaries. In this new DIIS Working Paper, Ahmed M. Musa, examines such local and transnational humanitarian practices and the mechanisms of inclusion and inclusion that they entail. Focusing on instances of drought in Somaliland, Musa argues that emergency assistance based on close social ties observes the overall humanitarian principle of impartiality. There are challenges, however, particularly when the social ties are more distant, as in the case of government-led or international responses. This may be mitigated, Musa shows, by the social contract of reciprocity between givers and recipients of assistance, going hand in hand with social sanctions where people abstain from helping those in need. Familiarity is thus central for impartial and inclusive access to emergency assistance, rather than an obstacle. The paper is an output from the Diaspora Humanitarianism in Complex Crises (D-Hum) research project in which Musa was a postdoc between 2020 and 2022. D-Hum analyses how Somali diaspora actors and their local counterparts mobilise, channel and deliver humanitarian assistance to Somalia and Somaliland during complex humanitarian crises. The project is funded by the Danish Consultative Research Committee for Development Research (FFU). Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LinkedInSend link to page with mailPrint page
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Migration, Poverty, Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

39. An Overview of the African Peacebuilding Network’s (APN’s) Contribution to African Peacebuilding Literature

Author:
Godwin Onuoha
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This working paper surveys, documents, and analyzes the contributions of APN scholars to the knowledge and practice of peacebuilding in Africa against the background of the 10th year anniversary of the APN program. It takes stock of the contributions and impact of the literature produced by APN scholars, particularly how these have brought different interdisciplinary perspectives and novel methodological approaches to bear on African peacebuilding. The paper systematically analyzes African perspectives on peacebuilding, debates between different schools of thought, provides an overview of different publications by APN scholars, and synthesizes the significance of these contributions to discourses on African and global literature on peacebuilding. As part of a broader intellectual project, the publications demonstrate how APN scholars have forged a nexus at which one can explore conflict, peacebuilding, media, gender, youth, boundaries and borderlands, land grabs, migration and refugees, faith-based initiatives, local/ communal cultures, identities, and COVID-19, among other topics. The publications under review transcend the narrow confines of the literature to engage in the complexities and multidimensional nature and contexts of African peacebuilding. In this regard, the publications mainstream African agency and views, particularly in the production of African knowledge in the field of peacebuilding.
Topic:
Conflict, Literature, Peacebuilding, and Transdisciplinarity
Political Geography:
Africa

40. Regional Development and Internal Migration Aspects of Structural Transformation: A Case Study of Senegal

Author:
Askar Mukashov
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This study investigates regional development and internal migration dynamics within the context of modern structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa. We develop a regionalized Computable General Equilibrium model that incorporates regionalized production, endogenous interregional migration, and distinct migrant households. Using this model, we simulate the structural transformation of Senegal as a case study. Our findings demonstrate that agricultural stagnation, exacerbated by global climate change, underlies the economic underperformance of rural regions and amplifies regional income disparities. Furthermore, our analysis shows that outmigration from stagnating rural provinces to a more developed capital region positively influences overall economic growth and mitigates regional income inequality. Nevertheless, these effects are limited, and a proactive approach to addressing income inequality across the nation's regions would require supporting agriculture, as it represents a more equitable policy than promoting nonagricultural sectors in both rural and capital regions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Economic Growth, Labor Market, and Regional Development
Political Geography:
Africa

41. China as an International Lender of Last Resort

Author:
Sebastian Horn, Bradley C. Parks, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People’s Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming due. The swaps bolster gross reserves and are mostly drawn by distressed countries with low liquidity ratios. In addition, we show that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have given out an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. Taken together, China’s overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20 percent of total IMF lending over the past decade and bailout amounts are growing fast. However, China’s rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) carry relatively high interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These findings have implications for the international financial and monetary architecture, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

42. Patterns of Global and Regional Value Chain Participation in the EAC

Author:
Sebastian Krantz
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Using global Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) data from 2005-2015, this paper empirically investigates the extent and patterns by which East African Community (EAC) countries have integrated into Global Value Chains (GVCs) and Regional Value Chains (RVCs). Results imply that the foreign content of exports (I2E) and the share of exports being re-exported (E2R) are stably between 10% and 20% in most EAC countries. Trade in intermediates with the rest of the world remains 12-14 times greater in value-added (VA) terms than the trade in intermediates inside the EAC. During 2005-2015, Kenya expanded its role as a regional supplier of manufactured inputs (higher E2R with EAC partners), and Uganda slightly increased its agricultural input to the Kenyan and Rwandan food processing sectors. Overall, however, a downstream shift is evident, by which more VA (both domestic and foreign) is used for the production of final goods while maintaining high levels of exports in primary agriculture and mining. This shift goes alongside a loss of comparative advantage in manufacturing in all EAC countries apart from Kenya. Econometric analysis suggests that higher I2E and E2R shares increase GDP with an average elasticity of ≥ 0.25 over 2 years. Estimates for manufacturing sectors were slightly higher at elasticities ≥ 0.3 in response to E2R shifts. These results imply that policy measures to increase manufacturing competitiveness and promote more horizontal RVCs would benefit EAC economic growth in the medium run.
Topic:
Globalization, Regional Integration, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa

43. Africa’s Businesswomen – Underfunded or Underperforming?

Author:
Charles Ackah, Holger Görg, Aoife Hanley, and Cecília Hornok
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
While the recent success of Africa’s ‘Lionesses’ – successful female entrepreneurs - is internationally celebrated, less is known about how liquidity can fuel the success of the ‘Lionesses’ and other businesswomen. Using information from a panel of over 800 male- and female-owned businesses in Ghana (ISSER-IGC survey), we capture a measure of underfunding, in addition to data on supplier credit, equity and other finance sources. Our regressions reveal a female-to-male productivity gap of between -11 to -19 percent, values similar to estimates for other African countries. However, when the relationship between gender and productivity is mediated by financial constraints, the gender performance gap disappears. Accordingly, female business-owners who indicate that funding is not a problem, are associated with higher productivity than males, all things equal. In a finding new to the literature, our regressions reveal the importance of supplier credit for Africa’s businesswomen.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Women, Business, Productivity, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

44. China’s Provinces as Global Actors: Evidence from China-Africa Relations

Author:
Charlotte Lenz
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
With the launch in the early 2000s of China’s ‘Going Global’ Strategy, Chinese provinces became one group of actors participating in China’s South-South relations. In this Strategic Update, Charlotte Lenz investigates the role of Chinese provinces as foreign policy actors and explains their internationalisation strategies, challenging the prevalent perception of China as a unitary actor on the world stage. Drawing on evidence from Africa-China relations, the report identifies two strategies employed by Chinese provinces in pursuit of their foreign policy interests: (1) Formal and informal “twinning” as a collaborative model between central and local actors, wherein central actors design policies and provincial governments execute projects; (2) and “clustering” according to a sectoral logic of investment and diplomacy in which a certain Chinese province engages a certain foreign country. Despite ongoing bureaucratic centralisation under Xi Jinping, provinces continue to pursue their own internationalisation strategies to help meet local economic and employment targets. Understanding their agency, interests and limitations is thus key to deriving a better understanding of China’s evolving global presence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Internationalization
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

45. Growth Through Inclusion in South Africa

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Andrés Fortunato, Alexia Lochmann, and Kishan Shah
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
It is painfully clear that South Africa is performing poorly, exacerbating problems such as inequality and exclusion. The economy’s ability to create jobs is slowing, worsening South Africa’s extreme levels of unemployment and inequality. South Africans are deeply disappointed with social progress and dislike the direction where the country seems to be heading. Despite its enviable productive capabilities, the national economy is losing international competitiveness. As the economy staggers, South Africa faces deteriorating social indicators and declining levels of public satisfaction with the status quo. After 15 years, attempts to stimulate the economy through fiscal policy and to address exclusion through social grants have failed to achieve their goals. Instead, they have sacrificed the country's investment grade, increasing the cost of capital to the whole economy, with little social progress to show for it. The underlying capabilities to achieve sustained growth by leveraging the full capability of its people, companies, assets, and knowhow remain underutilized. Three decades after the end of apartheid, the economy is defined by stagnation and exclusion, and current strategies are not achieving inclusion and empowerment in practice. This report asks the question of why. Why is the economy growing far slower than any reasonable comparator countries? Why is exclusion so extraordinarily high, even after decades of various policies that have aimed to support socio-economic transformation? What would it take for South Africa to include more of its people, capabilities, assets, and ideas in the functioning of the economy, and why aren’t such actions being undertaken already? The Growth Lab has completed a deep diagnostic of potential causes of South Africa’s prolonged underperformance over a two-year research project. Building on the findings of nine papers and widespread collaboration with government, academics, business and NGOs, this report documents the project’s central findings. Bluntly speaking, the report finds that South Africa is not accomplishing its goals of inclusion, empowerment and transformation, and new strategies and instruments will be needed to do so. We found two broad classes of problems that undermine inclusive growth in the Rainbow Nation: collapsing state capacity and spatial exclusion.
Topic:
Inequality, Economic Growth, Unemployment, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

46. Gold in Ghana: A Story of Unbalanced Exchange

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana and William Godfred Cantah
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
his paper presents the historical and institutional context of the development of the gold sector in Ghana, which sets the stage for examining the contribution of the sector to the economy and its exposure to capital flight. The analysis sheds light on the important role that the regulatory framework and the fiscal regime that govern the gold sector have played in perpetuating a system of unequal distribution of gains from gold exploitation in terms of tax revenue and foreign exchange earnings in favour of foreign gold companies. The statistical analysis of gold export statistics reveals substantial discrepancies between Ghana’s gold exports and the recorded value of imports by its trading partners. These differences point to export underinvoicing as a conduit of capital flight, while also exhibiting a systematic lack of transparency and inconsistencies vis-a-vis established international conventions governing the recording of trade transactions, especially in the case of gold destined for South Africa which does not show up in the latter’s import statistics. Overall, the analysis suggests that the gains from the gold sector remain much below potential, but that at the same time there may be room for reforms that can improve the benefits from gold exploitation for the country.
Topic:
Development, Regulation, Capital Flight, Exchange Rates, and Gold
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Ghana

47. Cocoa in Ghana, the ‘Political Crop’: Does State Control Shield the Cocoa Sector from Exposure to Capital Flight?

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana and Kwame Adjai-Mantey
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Since its introduction into Ghana in the 19th century, cocoa has been considered a strategic crop, over which the post-independence governments have maintained substantial control. Cocoa is indeed referred to as a ‘political crop.’ The cocoa sector is closely regulated by the government through the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). This paper aims to investigate whether this special industrial organization structure and the strict regulation help minimize the sector’s exposure to capital flight that would otherwise occur through export misinvoicing and leakage of foreign exchange earnings from cocoa exports. Indeed, compared to the gold sector in Ghana and the cocoa sector in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire, both of which are fully liberalized and dominated by foreign corporations, the cocoa sector in Ghana exhibits relatively little evidence of export misinvoicing. Moreover, cocoa export earnings are fully repatriated as they are in the hands of COCOBOD. The analysis, however, indicates that the gains from the cocoa sector in terms of contributions to GDP, tax revenue, and poverty reduction remain sub-optimal. This suggests that there is substantial room for improvement of these outcomes through targeted reforms and policy interventions at the sectoral level.
Topic:
Political Economy, Reform, Exports, Capital Flight, and Cocoa
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

48. Capital Flight from Natural Resource-Dependent African Countries: Updated Estimates and Analysis for the Cases of Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, 1970-2021

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper is part of a project that investigates domestic and global drivers and enablers of capital flight from Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, three countries that are significantly endowed in natural resources. It presents estimates of capital flight from these three countries and discusses the key drivers of the phenomenon. The results show that as of 2021, estimated total capital flight stood at $71.1 billion for Cameroon, $50 billion for Ghana, and $71.5 billion for Zambia. External borrowing and, in the cases of Zambia and Cameroon, trade misinvoicing, are key correlates of capital flight. While external borrowing directly and indirectly drives capital flight, trade misinvoicing constitutes an important mechanism of unrecorded cross-border capital flows. This study contributes to the efforts to uncover the mechanisms and enablers of capital flight from Africa, with the aim of shedding light on possible strategies to curb further capital outflows in the context of efforts to scale up and diversify development financing to support recovery from global crises, the transition to green growth, and sustainable development in Africa.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flight, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Zambia, Ghana, and Cameroon

49. Policy Responses to COVID-19: Why Social Cohesion and Social Protection Matter in Africa

Author:
Julia Leininger, Armin von Schiller, Christoph Strupat, and Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This empirical analysis investigates whether and to what extent social cohesion and the coverage of social protection schemes influence governments’ decisions about the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies during the first and second waves in 2020 in Africa. Our results indicate that societal and social factors influenced the stringency of containment policies. Social cohesion has a negative effect on the stringency of containment policies in response to COVID-19 over time. Social protection coverage has a positive effect on the stringency of containment policies in response to COVID-19 over time. States implemented more stringent containment policies in less cohesive societies if they already had social protection schemes in place before the pandemic. Contextual factors mediated these effects. While stringency of containment policies softened over time where levels of democracy, poverty, and inequality were higher, social protection made a mediating difference only in autocratic states and societies with higher poverty. Three contributions of the empirical analysis stand out. First, the conceptual integration of societal and social factors (“societal triangle”) provides a novel basis from which to analyse policy responses during external shocks like a global pandemic. Second, to overcome the limitations of current measurements of social cohesion, we use a novel measurement to determine pre-pandemic levels of social cohesion. Third, this is the first cross-national study that addresses a world region, Africa, which has gained little attention in the study of policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Topic:
Public Health, Social Cohesion, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa

50. The Effects of a Private-Sector-Driven Smallholder Support Programme on Productivity, Market Participation and Food and Nutrition Security: Evidence of a Nucleus-Outgrower Scheme from Zambia

Author:
Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Raoul Herrmann, Chewe Nkonde, Mwelwa Lukonde, and Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Nucleus-outgrower schemes (NOSs) are supposed to be a particularly effective private-sector mechanism to support smallholder farmers and contribute towards mitigating the problematic aspects of pure large-scale agricultural investments. This discussion paper uses panel household survey data collected in two rounds in Zambia to analyse some agro-ecological and socio-economic impacts of the outgrower programme of one of the largest agricultural investments in Zambia: Amatheon Agri Zambia (AAZ) Limited. The descriptive results show that the type of participation in the programme varies across participants and components, with most participating in trainings. Econometric results suggest the following key findings. First, although the overall impact of the AAZ outgrower programme on the uptake of conservation agriculture practices is robust and promising, impacts on the adoption of other agricultural technologies is less obvious and the effect depends on the type of support provided. Second, the programme has had a significant impact on maize productivity promoted in the initial phase but not on the other crops – mainly oilseeds – promoted later. Third, the initially less productive farmers seem to benefit slightly more than already better performing ones. Fourth, although the impact on overall household security was insignificant, there is some suggestive evidence (although the effect is weak) that the programme has a positive effect on improving women’s uptake of micronutrients. Finally, our findings show that the three components of the programme (trainings, seed loans and output purchases) have different effects on the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices and productivity, and to some extent on food security. Overall, the results suggest that NOSs, with all their risks, can play a role in the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, improving farm-level agricultural technologies, providing input credit, and thereby improving productivity and smallholder livelihoods. However, this is not automatically the case, as it crucially depends on the design and management of the project; the availability of good policies and institutions governing the rules of operation; the types of crops promoted; the duration of the project; and the political commitment of host countries, among others.
Topic:
Markets, Food Security, Participation, Farming, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

51. Inequality and Social Cohesion in Africa: Theoretical Insights and an Exploratory Empirical Investigation

Author:
Francesco Burchi and Gabriela Zapata-Román
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Inequality is bad per se and has adverse effects, among other things, on economic development and the environment. It is also often argued that high and increasing inequalities put societies under stress, which increases the likelihood of social conflicts. However, the literature on this topic is scarce and some of the conclusions are not adequately supported by empirical evidence. This is mainly because there are different definitions and measurements of social cohesion. Moreover, some definitions of social cohesion incorporate inequality, thus making it impossible to examine how these two phenomena interact with one another. This paper analyses both theoretically and empirically, the relationship between inequality and social cohesion. To do so, it employs a recent definition of social cohesion provided by Leininger et al. (2021). According to this definition, social cohesion is composed of three core attributes, namely trust, inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good. These attributes are examined in two dimensions, namely the horizontal (relationship among individuals) and vertical (relationship between individuals and state institutions) dimensions of social cohesion. This paper provides an overview of the empirical evidence regarding the relationship between inequality and the three attributes of social cohesion. We find that while inequality is likely to have a negative effect on all three attributes, the intensity of the relationship may depend on some key mediating factors. Moreover, we highlight the main pathways through which inequality could affect each of the three key attributes. The empirical analysis focuses on Africa. While there is some work in this field in Europe and Asia, to the best of our knowledge, there has not been any related empirical work thus far that has focused on African countries. To measure the three attributes of social cohesion, we use a database generated by Leininger et al. (2021), which is based on data from Afrobarometer and the V-Dem Institute. Inequality is mainly measured by the Gini coefficient and data are sourced from the World Income Distribution dataset. As expected, our analysis shows that countries with higher inequality usually have lower levels of social cohesion, which is measured by an aggregate index. This negative correlation holds when we analyse the relationship between the Gini coefficient and the three attributes separately; however, the intensity varies. It is stronger for trust (rho=0.25) compared with the other two attributes (both of which have a rho equal to approximately 0.1). Additional investigations point to substantially different results for the horizontal and vertical dimensions of social cohesion. Higher levels of inequality are associated with lower levels of horizontal trust and horizontal cooperation. On the other hand, higher levels of inequality are associated with higher levels of vertical trust and are essentially uncorrelated with vertical cooperation. These relationships remain substantially unchanged when we use measures of income inequality other than the Gini coefficient. Further analyses that aim to explain the puzzling results for the vertical dimension of social cohesion reveal that our findings are not clearly driven by trust in a specific institution and are also not an artefact of the specific data we used. Indeed, we obtain similar results using data from the World Values Survey. At the same time, it appears that the positive relationship between inequality and vertical trust is visible only among African countries, whereas it is not observed at the global level or for other regions. Further research is needed to confirm whether Africa is truly exceptional in this regard, and if so, why that may be the case.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Economy, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Africa

52. Social Cohesion and Firms’ Access to Finance in Africa

Author:
Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Social cohesion has recently gained increasing attention in academic and policy circles. Apart from being a necessary feature of stable societies per se, social cohesion is also a key factor for sustainable economic development. One potential means through which social cohesion could foster economic development is by enhancing financial development. In this paper, we examine whether social cohesion is significantly associated with firms’ access to finance in Africa. To this end, we use a recently constructed dataset on social cohesion in Africa, which is based on the Afrobarometer survey and the Varieties of Democracy database. The dataset contains indices for the three pillars of social cohesion – trust, inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good. Combining this dataset with that of the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we build a sample which covers more than 12,500 firms and 27 African countries. Our results show that all three components of social cohesion are positively associated with at least one measure of firms’ access to external finance. In particular, trust – but not inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good – is significantly associated with the likelihood that firms have a checking or savings account, or are financially constrained. When we measure access to finance with respect to having a line of credit or a loan from a financial institution, all the three pillars of social cohesion, including inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good, are related to access to finance. The results are robust to addressing endogeneity concerns using a heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Overall, our results suggest that improving social cohesion (e.g. through social protection, education, strengthening civil society organisations) could do more than hold society together; it could also promote access to finance, growth of firms, and thus economic development and job creation.
Topic:
Finance, Business, Economic Development, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Africa

53. Green Jobs in Cities: Challenges and Opportunities in African and Asian Intermediary Cities

Author:
Wolfgang Scholz and Michael Fink
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Cities account for approximately 70 per cent of global energy consumption and about 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions due to the density of economic activities and infrastructure and their often path-dependent development patterns. Cities adopting a green transformation process can minimise their environmental impact and maximise opportunities to improve and support the natural environment. Topics to address are energy efficiency and reduction of non-renewable energy sources to reduce their carbon footprint; actively support waste reduction and management; establish green and resilient infrastructure; encourage nature-based solutions; enhance the efficiency of new buildings; encourage low-carbon transport; and improve water cycle management. Also, these fields will lead to a greener urban economy, create more green jobs – or respectively change jobs towards becoming green – and deliver improved quality of life outcomes for residents. The aim of this discussion paper is to address the challenges, opportunities and fields of actions – respectively interventions – of these economic, but also social transformations on the job market on the level of cities. The regional focus is on African and Asian cities in developing countries. A special focus is on intermediary cities with between 1 to 5 million inhabitants since they constitute the fastest-growing urban areas today and more importantly, they have both the capacity and expertise to guide an economic transformation while still being, at the same time, not too large to be managed effectively, as outlined above. The fields of action for cities in a transformation towards a green economy, thereby creating green jobs, can be clustered into: • land use planning • green buildings and construction • sustainable mobility and urban transport • green and blue urban infrastructure services with nature-based solutions (NBSs) as a cross-cutting issue • renewable energy and energy efficiency The employment effects of a transformation towards a green economy play an important role. The opportunities for cities in Africa and Asia to create green jobs under their own local mandates of decision-making in urban planning and within their own service providers, and/or to support the “greening” of the private sector, will obviously create more green jobs, and respectively shift current jobs into green jobs.
Topic:
Development, Cities, Carbon Emissions, Opportunity, Energy, and Green Jobs
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

54. Urbanisation and Rural Development in Developing Countries: A Review of Pathways and Impacts

Author:
Tekalign Gutu Sakketa
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper reviews the current state of literature on the impacts of urbanisation on rural development in developing countries, with an emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Assessments of these effects diverge greatly. While some authors see urbanisation as strongly benefitting rural areas, for instance, through increased demand for agricultural goods and services, others highlight negative effects, for example, through the loss of livelihoods emanating from displacements and the conversion of agricultural land. Given this complexity, a review that thoroughly analyses the causal relationships between urbanisation and rural development is warranted. To do this, this Discussion Paper identifies seven channels through which urbanisation affects rural development: i) production and consumption linkages; ii) employment linkages; iii) financial linkages; iv) land market linkages; v) information and public service linkages; vi) social interactions linkages; and vii) environmental externalities. As to the first channel, production and consumption linkages, the review suggests that urbanisation has increased demand for agricultural products and services; natural resources; commercialisation and modernisation of agricultural technologies; and smallholders’ participation in modern agricultural value chains. The employment channel suggests that rapid urbanisation is enabling the diversification of rural livelihoods by bringing new eco­nomic opportunities to rural areas, but the effects have not been uniform across countries and communities. With regard to financial linkages, flows from cities have increased in many developing countries, benefitting rural areas; yet some studies point to no or to negative effects due to reduced agricultural productivity from the loss of labour and technology, and the crowding out of investment. Land market effects are particularly heterogeneous. While urbanisation tends to drive land value up and encourages investments, there are also negative developments in terms of crowding out and speculation. As to information and public service linkages, the review suggests that urbanisation has fostered information and knowledge flows from urban areas to rural areas which have improved income, innovation, and employment. Social interactions among urban and rural citizens more generally may bridge cultural gaps, improve the flow of information, knowledge, and resources pertinent for rural economic transformation, and thereby enhance social cohesion; yet little empirical evidence exists so far in terms of effects and causalities. Finally, urbanisation affects rural development through the environmental externalities it generates: waste disposal, environ­mental degradation, and loss of biodiversity. If appropriate technologies are put in place, urbanisation can also improve waste management and soil fertility, thus reducing the cost of agricultural production. To this end, the review has identified research gaps that have important policy implications. First, although effective rural-urban planning, monitoring and evaluation of rural-urban devel­opment policies require better data, there is lack of data collection systems or their quality is poor. In this respect, investing in emerging data sources such as satellites data can help countries improve their data collection systems and measures. Second, research is needed to revise and re­formulate better theoretical frameworks that take into account the uniqueness of African urban cities. Third, empirical evidence which documents to what extent and how rural-urban linkages provide an important arena for improving social interactions among neighbours, societies, and communities is needed. Finally, as many African countries continue to experience rapid urbani­sation (mostly urban sprawl), a thorough study of the impacts of urban externalities on agri­cultural productivity, food security, biodiversity, and the health of rural communities is necessary.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Urbanization, Employment, Finance, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

55. Only game in town? Inequality and demand for democracy in Africa – a micro perspective

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In this paper, the author explores whether perceived inequality is associated with demand for democracy among Africans. Past research has diverged on whether macro-level inequality should increase or decrease support for democracy, with some arguing that people might see democracy as a solution to inequality, and others that people might see it as a cause. I advance this literature by using a perceptual measure of inequality from Afrobarometer: how people feel their living situation compares to others’ in their country. I find that perceived equality is significantly associated with greater demand for democracy, while perceptions of relative deprivation and relative advantage are both associated with lower democratic demand. These effects are largely significant above and beyond the effect of absolute poverty and known predictors of support for democracy, such as free and fair elections and level of education.
Topic:
Education, Elections, Democracy, Inequality, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa

56. Measuring the impact of self-censorship on political party support in Afrobarometer data using machine learning

Author:
Paul Friesen
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Measures of political party support are viewed suspiciously in hybrid and authoritarian regimes where the two core indicators of political support – elections and public opinion polling – cannot be readily trusted. More accurately, the degree of measurement error is unknown, though scholars presume support for incumbent leaders and parties is exaggerated. This paper scrutinizes the degree to which political opinions on Afrobarometer surveys can be trusted by re-estimating voting preferences for 34 African countries. First, a range of demographic and interview metadata are regressed upon vote choice to see if they systematically influence vote-preference responses. Next, key markers of potential self-censorship are identified and used to create pools of “clean” and “polluted” data. Clean data are used to train a machine learning model to predict voting intentions, and then all data with self-censorship markers are recalculated. The results show that ruling party support is broadly similar in most countries but exaggerated by more than 10 percentage points in Sudan and Uganda and by between 5 and 10 points in Burundi, Tanzania, Togo, and Zimbabwe. Declines in ruling party support due to self-censorship are concurrent with increases in both non-responses and opposition party support.
Topic:
Politics, Censorship, Party System, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa

57. Population density and governance in Africa

Author:
Pranish Desai
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Across Africa, denser populations are associated with less confidence in institutions and the rule of law. What does that mean for the world’s fastest-urbanising continent?
Topic:
Governance, Population, Urbanization, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Africa

58. Declining poverty level in Ghana: Exploring the role of migrants’ remittances

Author:
Daniel Armah-Attoh
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Ghana has a long history of citizens migrating to other countries. Many of these migrants send remittances to relations and acquaintances back home, often to help recipients experiencing poverty and a lack of employment and economic opportunities. Empirical studies have established the poverty-alleviation impact of remittances in Africa, including Ghana. This study uses pooled Afrobarometer survey data collected between 2002 and 2017 to assess the relationship between migrants’ remittances and lived poverty in Ghana. Multiple statistical approaches suggest that remittances have a negative and statistically significant impact on lived poverty. We therefore recommend that the government institute policy measures to encourage the use of formal channels for such transfers to enable the country to harness the full development potential, including the poverty-reduction benefits, of migrants’ remittances.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Migrants, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

59. New Paradigm for Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Are Decentralized Hybrid Systems Changing the Game?

Author:
Hugo Le Picard
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
After several decades of reforms, the situation in centralized power sectors has hardly changed. The sub-Saharan power sector remains underdeveloped, and power sectors are experiencing significant financial difficulties that have been further exacerbated first by the effects of the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine. The operating losses of all African power sectors exceeded $150 billion in 2020. In view of the region’s population growth, centralized grids cannot fully meet their electricity needs, even in areas with access. Consequently, individuals and businesses are motivated to become more independent from the centralized grid to meet their electricity consumption needs. Market mechanisms are at work to fill the gaps created by the weakness of the centralized grid. The market for decentralized systems is experiencing strong growth in the region and has enormous potential in light of the grid's weakness: in addition to 600 million sub-Saharans without access to electricity, there are 500 million with access but who are coping with an unreliable or expensive grid. On a continent-wide basis, this is an opportunity worth more than $350 billion by 2030. The large-scale expansion of the market for decentralized systems in areas covered by the grid is significant for the development of the sector. In view of the significant increase in urban population and the increasing attractiveness of decentralized systems, it cannot be excluded that the existing, yet weak, centralized grid may become partly redundant. However, a power sector that develops around decentralized systems can also have advantages, if these new uses are designed and integrated into the development policies of power grids. These systems can provide faster access to electricity than the centralized grid for people without access. Similarly, the high modularity of these systems allows consumers with existing access to electricity to climb the energy ladder, enabling them to access new electrical services depending on their budget and needs. The lower cost of decentralized, renewable systems can also reduce the cost of electricity for commercial and industrial consumers, promoting their economic competitiveness and the penetration of renewable technologies across the continent. Decentralized generation capacity can also increase grid resilience, making consumers less dependent on centralized infrastructure. Finally, in the longer term, if electricity is generated primarily where it is consumed, it does not need to transit through transmission lines. It would also prevent electricity losses along transmission lines, that are high in many countries in the region. It would also limit the need for substantial investment in grid infrastructure which is difficult to raise private funds for and for which the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates an average of $40 billion per year is needed in the coming years. While the region’s centralized power sectors are experiencing increasing difficulties due to Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, decentralized systems will be called upon to play a key role in expanding access to electricity on the continent now more than ever. With the availability of capital dwindling in emerging countries, development finance institutions (DFI) could further support investment in the ecosystem of businesses trading in green decentralized solutions to facilitate access to clean electricity on the continent.
Topic:
Business, Electricity, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

60. Africa’s Infrastructure-Led Growth Experiment Is Faltering. It Is Time to Focus on Agriculture

Author:
David Ndii
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past few decades, several low- and middle-income economies in Africa and elsewhere have sought to turbocharge growth by adopting an export-led economic model premised on heavy investments in infrastructure and building up domestic manufacturing capacity. But this strategy has often not produced the economic gains that have been promised for a variety of reasons. The continued emphasis on infrastructure investment fails to account for the fact that even those African countries that have invested a great deal in infrastructure continue to lag other countries in Asia (like Bangladesh) in key manufacturing sectors like textiles regardless of infrastructure quality. In addition, this approach overlooks the fact that African countries do not have the same comparative advantages as the Asian Tigers that perfected and popularized the export-led growth model: while those Asian countries had an abundance of low-wage labor, wages in Africa are typically higher than those of other countries at comparable development levels. Instead of fixating on infrastructure, African countries should look to the experience of Latin American countries with similar resource endowments: a greater relative abundance of land than low-cost labor. As this experience shows, countries can make far more durable, sustainable economic gains by focusing on improving agricultural productivity with relatively low-cost improvements targeted at smallholder farmers for whom a boost in productivity would have the largest impact.
Topic:
Agriculture, Infrastructure, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Africa

61. Will France’s Africa Policy Hold Up?

Author:
Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During his first term, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to revitalize his country’s diplomatic outreach to countries throughout Africa. Some aspects of this pivot were designed to more directly address the legacy of French colonialism in Francophone countries. He also sensed that the growing stature of non-Western powers like China has given African counterparts greater latitude to pursue ties amid heightened diplomatic competition among a host of other countries both in Europe and elsewhere. In pursuing this strategy, Macron has sought to promote a vision of French diplomacy with Africa through greater foreign aid and more robust people-to-people ties grounded in a spirit of partnerships between equals. While Macron’s efforts have created an opening for renewed relationships, this pivot has not been as seamless as he had hoped. Bureaucratic inertia and stovepiping in French foreign policy circles have at times meant that implementation of these policies has lagged. In certain cases, Macron’s own nationalistic appeals during his recent reelection bid have appeared to undercut his attempts to make amends for France’s troubling colonial history. Meanwhile the French president’s attempts to deepen economic, people-to-people, and security ties in more equitable ways have fallen short of lofty expectations, with past practices proving harder than expected to jettison. For Macron’s ambitions for French relations with African countries to keep their momentum, the president and his team must take an earnest look at what has worked well and what can still be improved.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Diplomacy, Partnerships, Emmanuel Macron, and Degrowth
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

62. Halting the Kleptocratic Capture of Local Government in Nigeria

Author:
Matthew T. Page and Abdul H. Wando
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Too often viewed as a monolithic state, Nigeria has complex subnational governance systems that can have outsized impacts on its trajectory. The state is covered with a vibrant but frayed political quilt, consisting of three layers: the federal government in Abuja, thirty-six state governments, and 774 local governments. Frequently overlooked, Nigeria’s local governments are disproportionately important; if they functioned well, they would be best positioned to meet people’s basic needs and to build their resilience to cope with everyday challenges. Matthew T. Page Matthew T. Page is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In reality, however, “no local government [in Nigeria] works for the people.”1 Instead, “every household is its own local government,” sourcing its basic needs—water, electricity, education, and healthcare—however it can.2 Exhausted by local government kleptocracy—a system in which those who govern steal from the governed—Nigerians understand that they must fend for themselves. While local government corruption is a global problem not unique to Nigeria, it is nevertheless crucial to address. It fuels democratic backsliding, communal conflict, and poverty. By hurting governance outcomes at the subnational level, local government corruption is quietly hobbling Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Domestic Politics, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

63. What China Is Learning From West African Managerial Practices

Author:
Abdoulkadre Ado
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Joint ventures have enabled Chinese companies to cultivate a presence in three West African countries—Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Investing in joint ventures has enabled Chinese cultural adaptation by emphasizing training programs in languages commonly spoken in West Africa, embracing local management styles, and assimilating some local practices. This has been especially true in three key economic sectors: free trade zone promotion and related services, transportation and aviation, and oil and gas. Chinese firms are also complementing these growing business arrangements with the use of local languages, social media outreach, and other forms of local engagement with West Africans. In doing so, Chinese organizations have responded to some of the demands of their African partners in local, state, and central government posts. It would be beneficial for African governments, businesses, and corporate managers to explore further ways to incentivize Chinese government decisionmakers and Chinese businesses to use joint ventures more often as the vehicle for their investments in Africa. To deepen the impact of such efforts, they should also encourage Chinese organizations active in West Africa, and across the continent in general, to embrace the use of local languages, especially for conducting business, and to train more Chinese expatriates to use African managerial philosophies that have proven to respect local values while being effective in African markets. Research on China’s engagement abroad and Chinese firms’ business operations in foreign countries often argues that Chinese organizations are not keen to adapt to local contexts. As a result, some analysts of China-Africa relations argue, or at least imply, that China does things as it wishes in Africa and that African countries have little agency in shaping how Chinese governmental and commercial players operate in their countries. Some analysts have even characterized African countries’ relationships with Beijing as the “Chinisation of Africa.”1 This line of thinking tends to assume that local contexts have mattered little for Chinese economic activities in Africa so far. But Chinese commercial engagement in Africa is increasingly adaptative to local contexts, conditions, and complexities. In Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria, Chinese actors are adjusting their ways of doing business to consider local realities with respect to both formal and informal institutions. For one thing, the Chinese players who are active in these three countries are acknowledging and mobilizing African practices and cultural traditions to support their own business goals and sometimes those of their local partners. The level of Chinese economic engagement tends to differ from one African country to another, with some places being more welcoming of a Chinese commercial presence than others. The specific patterns of Chinese adaptation also tend to vary between different parts of Africa. For instance, these adaptations may look different in a Francophone country like Niger than they would in a country like Nigeria. Niger is a nation where China’s adaptation differs from its adaptation in Ghana or Nigeria since language and managerial practices partly are derived from various French and British cultural traditions and colonial imprints in those three African countries.
Topic:
Business, Engagement, Management, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and West Africa

64. The Challenges of Data Collection in Conflict-affected Areas: A Case Study in the Liptako-Gourma Region

Author:
Shourjya Deb and Virginie Baudais
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Conducting research in the Sahel has become more challenging over the past 10 years, and the continuing deterioration of the security situation has restricted access to many areas. This SIPRI Insights paper provides an overview of the main challenges for researchers when conducting data collection in conflict-affected areas. The paper employs a case study of a humanitarian protection project that SIPRI has been working on in the Liptako-Gourma region. The project was designed in collaboration with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) and three local research partners: the Centre for Democratic Governance (CGD) in Burkina Faso, Point Sud in Mali and the Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherche sur les Dynamiques Sociales et le Développement Local (LASDEL) in Niger. Using the case study, the paper identifies and outlines how the project addressed specific challenges. The paper also highlights key considerations for researchers to take into account when carrying out data collection and fieldwork in conflict zones. Evidence-based research can influence humanitarian and development initiatives and support shifts in policy and programming. The bottom-up research approach gives a voice to communities and alternative perspectives and advances evidence-based solutions that are locally driven, meaningful and sustainable for target populations.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Governance, Conflict, Peace, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

65. Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa: Assessing the Evidence

Author:
Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
West Africa is widely cited as a hotspot of climate change and insecurity. This SIPRI Insights uses a systematic literature review of academic research to build a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in the region. Its findings are structured around four established ‘pathways’ of climate insecurity: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns; (c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances. The literature review highlights a number of important variables in the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: maladaptation to livelihood insecurity; migration away from climate-exposed areas; escalating farmer–herder conflicts; and sometimes weak, sometimes divisive, sometimes exploitative governance. Despite these findings, the literature review reveals current research and policy discussions on climate change and violent conflict in West Africa are informed by a very limited amount of academic research.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Conflict, Violence, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

66. Consumption of New and Emerging Tobacco and Nicotine Products in Zambia: Implications for Policy

Author:
Shimukunki Manchishi, Edna Kabala, and Mulenga Chonzi Mulenga
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The global economy has in recent years observed a rapid increase in the consumption of New and Emerging Tobacco and Nicotine Products (NETNPs). Consumers of the NETNPs in Zambia and elsewhere justify consumption of these products on grounds that they are less harmful and expose them to fewer health risks compared to traditional tobacco smoke. However, studies have shown that these NETNPs do not entirely filter out harmful chemicals from tobacco as presumed by many people, and in some cases may even expose smokers to more smoke over longer periods of time as is the case of water pipe (shisha). This study investigated the consumption and taxation of NETNPs in Zambia to generate knowledge and come up with evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at informing appropriate stakeholders on the consumption and taxation of NETNPs. The study employed a mixed methodology encompassing a desk review, a survey of 400 respondents and key informant interviews. In terms of the consumption of NETNPs, the study revealed that a majority of those surveyed consume water pipe, which ranked highest among the NETNPs consumed in Zambia. Other NETNPs commonly consumed include bidis, e-cigarettes and dry snuff (nsunko). The consumption of these products varied according to the economic status of the consumers, with products such as snus and e-cigarettes being much more preferred and consumed by those in employment because they can afford more costly products. Meanwhile, products such as water pipe and bidis were the products of choice among those not employed and this could also be attributed to the relatively lower cost of the products. Regarding the socio-demographic characteristics of the surveyed sample, the study established that most of the consumers of NETNPs were young, unmarried males. A notable finding in the study was that those who had attained tertiary level of education were the biggest consumers of NETNPs. With regards to taxation of NETNPs, the study has found that there is potential to increase taxes substantially based on consumers’ willingness to pay which would require very high tax levels to deter consumption. This would require the government to considerably increase excise taxes on these products which would ultimately increase their price and hence curtail their consumption. The study has established that the taxation of all tobacco products in Zambia is the sole responsibility of the ZRA which draws its mandate from various provisions of the Zambian law. Broadly there are eight categories used to classify tobacco and nicotine products based on the HS codes. This broad classification forms the basis for taxation of tobacco and nicotine products in Zambia. The study has established that there are four main taxes applied on tobacco products in Zambia, these include: a 25% customs duty levied on the value of the product imported; a VAT of 16% on the value of the product; a 5% surtax; and excise duty of 145% of the value for duty purposes (VDP) or K355 per kg for all tobacco products.
Topic:
Health, Digital Economy, Business, Tax Systems, Public Policy, Tobacco, Public Health, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

67. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:
Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

68. Youth unemployment in the South of the Mediterranean: A chronic challenge to development and stability

Author:
Hussein Suleiman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Unemployment among youth, aged 15 to 24 years old according to the International Labour Organization (ILO)’s definition, is the highest in the south of the Mediterranean, and in the larger Middle East and North Africa (MENA), compared to other regions in the world. This problem is exacerbated by very low labour force participation rates for this age group in the region, also compared to other regions. Furthermore, this issue of high youth unemployment is not a recent development but has been chronic in the region for at least the last three decades, as shown in detail further on. Youth unemployment south of the Mediterranean is a major challenge, and a symptom of deeply-rooted problems in the region’s labour markets. Unemployment is largely a youth unemployment issue. The problem is mainly one of new entrants’ transition from school age to work (Assaad & Krafft, 2016) but with consequences that could easily shape the entire life trajectories of individuals in the region and also have widespread impacts on their societies and even neighbouring countries. Such worrying and chronic challenges in the region’s labour markets have been largely shaped by structural deeply-rooted issues, reflected in the rise of work informality as a result of falling public employment, and a slow growth of formal private employment in the region throughout the last few decades, which will be discussed in detail in the paper. This paper aims to provide policy recommendations to address such chronic problems in the region, focusing mainly on Southern Mediterranean countries in North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, excluding Libya because of the exceptional impact of the civil war on its labour market during the last decade. The paper first explores some prominent implications of low employment among the youth, for their own lives and their societies. It then proceeds to examine the magnitude of the problem in the selected countries and its development across the last three decades, relying mostly on ILO estimates, which, unlike national estimates, have a few missing entries in that extended period, and also allow for disaggregation by age groups and gender that might not always be available for national estimates. Next, the paper highlights the now-established explanation of the youth employment problem in the region and how it developed, before finally moving to the recommended policy measures, both domestic and through regional cooperation, to address this chronic problem that has played a major role in the radical political and social shocks in the region in the last decade.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

69. Paradoxical Africanisation of Libya after 2011. Growing influence of sub- Saharan African government, rebel, diplomatic and criminal actors in the post-Gaddafi state

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The 2011 downfall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi marked a tipping point for Libya’s southern neighbours in re-defining their roles on the regional north-south axis. The era of an assertive Libyan foreign policy on Africa came to a halt. Simultaneously, as a consequence of the civil war, multiple African actors, both state and non-state, assumed greater influence inside and over Libya. The country moved from being an exporter of security and insecurity to sub-Saharan Africa, as under Gaddafi, to becoming an importer. Some aspects of this largely unnoticed, multi-dimensional “Africanisation” [1] of Libya are likely to take root. Changes in Libya’s and sub-Saharan African actors’ standings within the regional setting represent a new reality on the ground that has not been contextualised and analysed thoroughly enough. Only when the international actors do so will they be able to adequately navigate and constructively engage social, political and security structures within the Libya- sub-Saharan Africa framework. Thus, this paper aims to answer the following research questions: in which specific north-south security-related phenomena did sub-Saharan African actors assume agency? Are the motivations of the actors involved opportunistic or do they include long-term political goals? Which aspects of “Africanisation” are taking solid roots and could be sustained beyond the period of Libya’s instability? Will this change to the regional order be temporary and reversible? What are the implications for the European Union (EU) policies related to peace, security and governance in Libya? For the research, several interviews with representatives of the regional armed groups, policy advisors, policy-makers and researchers with an insightful understanding of local and regional dynamics have been conducted since 2018, including during field research in Sudan in 2019. Those have been supplemented by a comprehensive review of existing literature on cross-border conflict dynamics in the Libya-Sudan-Chad-Niger borderlands, Libya-sub-Saharan African relations and relevant documents of international organisations. Historical methods focusing on the long-term and comprehensive processes seen within a big picture are being supplemented with an analytical approach seeking logical consequences and formulating predictions out of hard data and a comparative approach, where models, institutions and experiences are put together with more or less adequate processes found elsewhere.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

70. Building Resilience Blocks: How to Improve the Quality of Work for the Egyptian Construction Precariat?

Author:
Hanaa Ebeid and Salma Hussein
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The past two years have revealed the difficult living conditions of millions around the world experiencing compounded insecurities, especially of work and income. Within this context, this paper explores how the notion of precarity applies to informal construction workers in Egypt. It argues that their working conditions fail to satisfy the decent work indicators recommended by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and relevant literature. The paper also assesses the Egyptian government’s intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding informal irregular workers. The government pushed forward infrastructure projects in order to cushion the impact of the pandemic on unemployment. It also distributed cash transfers to irregular informal workers for six months. The paper explains why these measures were not enough. Based on focus group discussions, an in-depth interview and an extensive study of ILO literature, the paper puts forward a set of recommendations with the aim of improving the quality of work under which the majority of workers in the construction sector in Egypt live.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Resilience, and Construction
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

71. From a Fragmented Cooperation to an Integrated Approach – The Emergence of the Maghreb and Sahel Region and its Consequences for the European Union

Author:
Erzsébet N. Rózsa and Viktor Marsai
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The history of the European Union (EU)’s foreign and security policy has been characterised by a continuous develop- ment and a process of adaptation to the realities on the ground and the experi- ences gained. This was manifest in the gradual change from bilateral relations to regional/multilateral structures, from trade through three-basket/three-pillar structured relations to the integrated ap- proach as introduced by the 2016 EU Global Strategy, and the institutionalisa- tion thereof. “Internal and external secu- rity are ever more intertwined: our secu- rity at home entails a parallel interest in peace in our neighbouring and surround- ing regions. It implies a broader interest in preventing conflict, promoting human security, addressing the root causes of instability and working towards a safer world” (EEAS, 2016). The present pa- per argues that, in order to be able to halt the increasingly complex threats fac- ing the EU and maintain its global actor status, the EU should introduce further – sectorial and regional – flexibility, in- cluding, among others, definitions of the widening geographical scope underlying its strategic vision. Therefore, this paper first asks how the EU and its member states should recon- sider their regional approach. How can the EU implement the existing frame- works and/or develop a more effective and adaptive strategy towards its south- ern neighbourhood fitting the new reali- ties on the ground better?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

72. Gender-Based Violence in Egypt and Morocco: Politics and Policy-Making

Author:
Dima Rashed and Rabha Allam
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Violent practices against women are widespread globally. They occur in private quarters and public spaces by persons within a victim’s close circles, including family members, as well as members of the larger society. Over the past half a century, the international community has taken steps to eliminate violence against women (VAW). The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), adopted in 1979 by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, has defined discrimination against women as “…any distinction, exclusion or restriction made on the basis of sex which has the effect or purpose of impairing or nullifying the recognition, enjoyment or exercise by women, irrespective of their marital status, on a basis of equality of men and women, of human rights and fundamental freedoms in the political, economic, social, cultural, civil or any other field” (UN Women, n.d.a). In 1993, the United Nations Declaration of Violence against Women took another step by defining acts of violence against women as “any act of gender-based violence that results in, or is likely to result in, physical, sexual or psychological harm or suffering to women, including threats of such acts, coercion or arbitrary deprivation of liberty, whether occurring in public or in private life (UNGA, 1993). This global engagement with VAW prompted attention on the legislative and policy-making levels, as well as within academic investigations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where patriarchal traditions have endured. The paper focuses on Gender-Based Violence (GBV) directed at women and girls in Morocco and Egypt through a comparative investigation of laws and policies. We probe women’s security over the past two decades and find that while Egypt has experienced progress on fighting Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) and economic violence against women, Morocco has advanced on issuing a more progressive Personal Status Code and VAW in the domestic sphere. How can we understand this divergence between two North African countries where Islamic Sharia is the basis of family laws? And how have state-society relations impacted efforts to fight VAW in both countries? We adopt definitions of UN Women on GBV, forms of violence and economic violence. GBV is defined as “harmful acts directed at an individual or a group of individuals based on their gender.” Forms of violence challenging women and girls are defined as “any act of gender-based violence that results in, or is likely to result in, physical, sexual or mental harm or suffering to women and girls, including threats of such acts, coercion or arbitrary deprivation of liberty, whether occurring in public or in private life. Violence against women and girls encompasses, but is not limited to, physical, sexual and psychological violence occurring in the family or within the general community, and perpetrated or condoned by the State” (UN Women, n.d.b). Economic violence is defined as a practice that “involves making or attempting to make a person financially dependent by maintaining total control over financial resources, withholding access to money, and/or forbidding attendance at school or employment” (UN Women, n.d.b).
Topic:
Politics, Gender Based Violence, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and Morocco

73. The Role of Egyptian Female Entrepreneurship in the Digital Era post-COVID-19

Author:
Doaa Salman Abdou
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The current “cloud revolution” accelerates the digitalisation of economies as it expands business opportunities, thus boosting the economy and enhancing business activities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, digital economy countries had the opportunity to sustain many activities remotely, while many developing countries fell into poverty and were forced to face a surge of unemployment. There were more unemployed females than males, and the female participation rate was lower than for males. Digitalisation can accelerate female entrepreneurs’ participation in the labour market and allow them to increase their productivity growth. It can therefore help increase their standard of living, decreasing poverty and creating economic stability (Van Praag & Versloot, 2007). COVID-19 challenges the dreams of many entrepreneurs across the globe to sustain their business using technology but even more so in developing countries as their access to technology is lower than in developed countries because it is not affordable and in some rural areas not available. In this context, not all countries have been affected in the same way. As a result of the epidemic, women’s employment decreased the most throughout the Americas (a reduction of 9.4%). The Arab States saw the second-largest drop in the number of employed women, with women’s employment falling by 4.1% and men’s by 1.8% between 2019 and 2020 (ILO, 2021). The pandemic widens the gender gap rather than closing it. Such a shock urges a reduction of the digital divide, as it is considered a necessary tool and not a luxury. Such a tool can keep businesses going and help them recover after the global shock, especially for women who had to stay at home with their children. Women, youths and people with medium and low skills experienced a decline in employment worldwide in 2020. Female workers were disproportionately affected compared to male workers, with unemployment accounting for 38.9% of total employment before the COVID-19 crisis but rising to 47.6% of the total workforce (ILO, 2020). The lockdown due to the pandemic pushed women to learn how to benefit from digitalisation as it has a direct link to both poverty alleviation and women’s empowerment, especially in developing countries, where it plays a significant role in gender equality and economic development.
Topic:
Entrepreneurship, Feminism, Pandemic, COVID-19, Digitalization, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

74. Justifications of Repression in Autocracies: An Empirical Analysis of the Maghreb, 2000–2010

Author:
Maria Jousa
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Previous studies on the justification of repression have analysed large-scale protests, about which autocratic officials communicate to avoid backlash effects. However, we know much less about how everyday repression against dissidents and ordinary citizens is communicated and justified under authoritarianism. This paper is the first to systematically investigate how officials in autocracies justify, conceal, or deny different forms of repression employed by different state institutions. It studies the communication of repression in two North African autocracies, drawing on the novel Justifications of Repressive Incidents in Morocco and Tunisia Dataset. The dataset contains 439 events between 2000–2010 and disaggregates the various dimensions of repression and its communication. The empirical analysis shows that the chosen forms of repression influence patterns of communication and justification. Studying the communication of repression helps us better understand the nexus of authoritarian legitimation and political violence in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Repression
Political Geography:
Africa and Maghreb

75. EU-Africa relations ahead of the EU-AU Summit: Taking stock, looking forward

Author:
Pavlos Petidis
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The European Union’s (EU) development policy is a broad field of activity that has undergone multiple significant modifications in both its definitions and its goals. The external relations of the European Union have long included development policy, resulting in an asymmetrical relationship with Africa. Since the turn of the century, the scope of the EU-Africa relationship has expanded to cover new challenges including climate change, terrorism, trade liberalization, and migration. EU development policies reveal a long-term shift in EU development priorities away from fundamental development goals and toward a wider array of ambitions, actors, and methodologies. Identifying and prioritizing the International Organizations on which it and its member states should best focus their diplomatic and political capital is a challenge. Given the political clout and relevance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the continent’s economic development, the EU can concentrate its efforts on encouraging its implementation by deepening its Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). Working together to strengthen multilateralism and support the implementation of the European Green Deal and the AfCFTA form the axis of a new articulated African agency.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Migration, Terrorism, European Union, Partnerships, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

76. Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Dawid A. Fusiek
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s rising foreign policy ambitions have been best reflected in its pivot to Africa. One of the tropes used by the Erdoğan administration to advance its cause are references to the colonial heritage of the European Union (EU) and its member states. The AKP and its officials have employed this discourse to challenge the French influence in Mali since the 2020 coup d’état. As this paper shows, Turkey uses anti-colonial discourse to exploit postcolonial sentiments with a view to challenging the political and economic power of Western actors, to portraying Turkey as a legitimate and “anti-colonial” ally and partner and, in the long run, to establishing a robust Turkish presence in Mali, the Sahel and beyond. In order to counter Turkish influence, the EU needs to promote fair cooperation with Mali and West Africa, to assist with political and economic development in the region, and to mobilise Member States which are unencumbered with a colonial past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Anti-Colonialism, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, Mali, and Sahel

77. The IMF, Africa, and Climate Change—Making Sense of an Implausible Trilogy

Author:
Daniel Citrin and Daouda Sembene
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Evidence suggests that Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate change. While African countries contribute relatively little to global emissions, they remain significantly vulnerable to the devastating economic effects of this phenomenon. This paper reviews IMF activities and explores how best the IMF could support efforts by African countries to cope with macroeconomic policy and structural challenges associated with climate change. To this end, while recognizing the relative significance of the overall IMF contribution to addressing this global challenge, we make several recommendations about potential ways to strengthen the role of IMF surveillance, capacity development and financing. First, IMF staff should ensure that policy advice in the context of global, regional and country surveillance fit specific circumstances and institutional capacity of African countries as well as their economic vulnerabilities to climate change. To enable timely response to climate-related crises, staff teams should also be prepared to provide advice on a flexible basis, without being tied to formal periodic work schedules. Additionally, the IMF could facilitate adaptation and mitigation by engaging in intensive outreach activities about the economic impact of climate change. Second, there is merit in developing comprehensive IMF capacity development strategies in close collaboration with the authorities in climate-vulnerable countries. For effective implementation, the IMF will need to identify and actively seek adequate financing for capacity development activities on climate issues. Finally, while the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) is a welcome addition to the IMF toolkit and represents a potentially significant source of financing for some sub-Saharan African countries, specific amendments could be considered notably with a view to limiting the potential cost for low-income borrowers to access its resources. Moreover, successful operationalization of the RST hinges on careful and flexible design of conditionality and how programs under the new facility will be linked to concurrent upper-credit tranche programs.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa

78. Social Protection in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from South Africa

Author:
Lena Gronbach, Jeremy Seekings, and Vayda Megannon
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa responded to the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown using a combination of existing social protection programmes, unemployment insurance, and additional measures to support those most affected. This paper reviews policies and implementation with the objective of highlighting lessons for the global community, including on the use of digital mechanisms. The government adopted a two-pronged and largely cash-based approach: unemployment benefits for formal sector workers and cash transfers to vulnerable individuals, informal workers, and beneficiaries of existing grants. Top-up payments for existing grants were rolled out efficiently; the new Special Relief of Distress (SRD) grant posed challenges but ultimately succeeded in reaching over six million previously uncovered beneficiaries. It may even become a permanent feature of South Africa’s social protection system. Overall, the government reached over 30 million South Africans with cash-based relief measures. A distinctive feature of cash-based emergency relief was the use of digital technologies, especially in the application and verification process for the new SRD grant. The payment system, however, relied heavily on manual cash disbursements, thus failing to reflect the adoption of innovative digital technologies observed in many other African countries.
Topic:
Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

79. Stuck Near Ten Billion: Public-Private Infrastructure Finance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Nancy Lee and Mauricio Cardenas Gonzalez
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many stress the critical role of the private sector in filling yawning sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) infrastructure finance gaps, only widened by the pandemic. Our paper looks in detail at financially closed (construction-ready) transactions with private participation in SSA from 2007-2020. Despite the “billions to trillions” vision, we find no sustained upward trends for such transactions in volumes of total finance, multilateral development bank (MDB) finance, private finance, the share or volume of local private finance, participation by international institutional investors, or finance from bilateral development finance institutions (DFIs). External finance sources were larger than local sources, with Chinese DFIs dominant and the US DFI a marginal actor. Among MDBs, the African Development Bank provided the most finance cumulatively. Investment in renewable energy outpaced investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, but MDBs continued to make significant fossil fuel investments. Investment in water and social infrastructure remains about 5 percent of the total. Policy implications include: the urgent need for greater MDB efforts to use their broad toolkits to catalyze more private infrastructure finance, including from local sources and in social sectors; the case for building on the African Development Bank’s advantages; the importance of growing the US Development Finance Corporation’s efforts; and the strong logic for more collaboration among infrastructure finance providers to SSA, including China, with MDBs providing not only finance but also fora for collaboration and support for the policy and institutional reforms that build sustainability and reduce risk for all actors.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Finance, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
Africa

80. Defying United Nations Sanctions: Three Reasons for African Engagement with North Korea

Author:
Tycho van der Hoog
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The United Nations (UN) sanctions against North Korea are weakened by structural evasion techniques and weak enforcement. The African continent is a crucial node in the global illicit networks of North Korea. This paper examines three motives for African states to cooperate with North Korea, with a particular focus on the context of southern Africa: historical affinity (reciprocity), the practical issue of maintenance dependency (necessity), and the presence of weak enforcement regimes (opportunity). Based on a deep reading of UN Panel of Experts reports, academic literature and policy papers, novel archival material, and an interview with a defected North Korean diplomat, this paper argues that solutions to strengthen the sanctions regime can be successful only if they are grounded in African initiatives.
Topic:
Security, Economics, United Nations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and North Korea

81. Weathering shocks: the effects of weather shocks on farm input use in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Aimable Nsabimana
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
: There has been much discussion on climate change and its adverse effects on agriculture, including excessive loss of food production. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is the major source of household livelihoods, shocks in weather patterns affect farmers’ expectations of farm yield and hence the decision to adopt farm inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides and the extent of their utilization, particularly given the relatively high cost of these inputs. In this study, I explore the relationship between weather shocks and the intensity of inputs use at the plot level using large-scale national panel data from three African countries: Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania. By combining monthly drought index data with a rich Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture dataset, I find that the intensity of chemical fertilizer use reduces much more in drought-prone areas than in less drought-prone areas during growing seasons. I also find that drought during lean seasons is associated with higher pesticide uptake. The evidence suggests that drought induces farmers to purposively reduce farm investments, including yield-enhancing technology such as chemical fertilizer, hence worsening adverse farm yield effects.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Weather, and Chemical Fertilizer
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

82. ‘Delangokubona’ and the distribution of rents and opportunity

Author:
Ayabonga Cawe
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Capital spending on infrastructure presents a significant counter-cyclical tool, however contested it might be in a society as unequal as South Africa. The history of racial capitalism, racebased exclusion from economic participation, and an enduring political economy based on the concentration of capital, product, and service markets has given rise to a post-apartheid ‘politics of entry’ that mobilizes both formal and informal adaptations of redistributive policies aimed at ensuring redress of past injustices and access and participation by small and medium-sized enterprises owned by historically disadvantaged people. This is observed in stark form in the capital spending on economic and social infrastructure, which the South African government envisages as the ‘flywheel’ of the country’s economic reconstruction and recovery. Applying a combination of tools from new institutional economics, political sociology, and heterodox political economy frameworks, this paper considers the ‘informal’ and at times violent adaptation of policy, here defined as the ‘Delangokubona phenomenon’, which uses both formal mechanisms and the threat (perceived or real) of violent disruption to negotiate access to policy-sanctioned economic ‘rents’ under the auspices of ‘black economic empowerment’ in public infrastructure projects.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Rent, Redistribution, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

83. Employment policy in Mainland Tanzania: what’s in it for women?

Author:
Roosa Lambin and Milla Nyssölä
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Tanzania has experienced relatively strong and stable economic growth accompanied by social stability over the past two decades. The country is also pursuing an ambitious development plan with significant employment objectives. For development to be fully inclusive, specific attention must be paid to the gendered dimensions of employment policy, in terms of both design and outcomes. This constitutes a key challenge in Tanzania, where women and femaleheaded households are constrained by lower levels of education and social capital, deeper levels of poverty, and limited access to assets—while also being impacted disproportionately by the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper interrogates Tanzania’s employment policies from a gender perspective by adopting a functional approach. We examine policies with (1) a labour market entry-facilitating function, (2) an enterprise- and productivityenhancing function, and (3) a job quality-enhancing function, through their effects on workingage women’s employment in the 2000s. We also discuss the extent to which women’s employment is considered in the broader development approach and social policy model in the country. The analysis draws on a desktop-based scoping review of diverse sources of evidence. The paper shows that several progressive policies have been introduced in the areas of financial services, labour market regulations, and entrepreneurship support, and women’s labour market position has slightly improved in the new millennium. However, women remain at the margins of the broader development strategy, and much needs to be done to enhance women’s access to assets, skills training, and better-quality employment. Further gender-responsive social policy investments would facilitate this process.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Social Policy, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

84. Labour market effects of digital matching platforms: Experimental evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Sam Jones and Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Can digital labour market platforms reduce search frictions in either formal or informal labour markets? We study this question using a randomized experiment embedded in a tracer study of the work transitions of graduates from technical and vocational colleges in Mozambique. We implement an encouragement design, inviting graduates by SMS to join one of two local digital platforms: Biscate, a site to find freelancers for informal manual tasks; and Emprego, a conventional formal jobs website. In contrast to positive estimates of the contribution of both platforms to job outcomes from naïve (per-treatment) estimates, both intent-to-treat and complier average treatment effects are consistently zero in the full sample, while the impact on life satisfaction is negative. However, use of the informal jobs platform leads to better work outcomes for women, especially those with manual qualifications, for whom earnings rise by over 50 per cent.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, Digital Economy, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

85. What drove the profitability of colonial firms? Labour coercion and trade preferences on the Sena Sugar Estates (1920–74)

Author:
Sam Jones and Peter Gibbon
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The magnitude of returns to colonial-era investments in Africa has been addressed in an extensive literature, as have the nature and legacies of extractive colonial institutions. However, the link between these institutions and the profitability of firms remains unclear. We reconstruct the annual financial records of Sena Sugar Estates in Portuguese East Africa (today’s Mozambique) over the period 1920–74 to probe the contributions of forced labour and preferential trade arrangements to the performance of the firm. We show that Sena Sugar Estates achieved stable and solid returns to capital, comparable in size to a range of domestic UK firms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the firm’s profitability was highly dependent on sustained access to cheap labour, but generally was not so dependent on trade preferences. At the same time, a production function analysis suggests that higher reliance on rents from forced labour was associated with lower total factor productivity at the Estates. This helps explain why extractive institutions did not translate into ‘super-profits’.
Topic:
History, Colonialism, Trade, Sugar, and Forced Labor
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

86. Residual capacity and the political economy of pandemic response in Ghana

Author:
Kofi Takyi Asante
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
On the whole, poor countries in Africa and elsewhere seem to have weathered the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, or COVID-19) pandemic better than wealthier countries with superior healthcare systems. Using the Ghanaian case, this paper draws on newspaper articles, policy statements, and other secondary sources to explain how the country’s competitive clientelist political settlement mediated the public health outcomes of the pandemic. It argues that while it lacks overall state capacity, Ghana was able to surmount the limitations of its weak and underresourced public health system by leveraging ‘residual capacity’ from previous public health programmes and a strong proactive response from the continental and subregional organizations. The government’s strong early response enabled it to gain control of the situation in the crucial first few months of the outbreak. However, with an upcoming election later in the year and unwilling to bear the political costs of sustaining its initial efforts, the government subsequently wavered in its response. The country’s infection and death rates spiked and dipped in response to these waves of enforcement. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the limits of ‘residual capacity’ in public service delivery.
Topic:
State, Public Health, Settlements, COVID-19, and Clientelism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

87. Health and ethnic inequalities in Mozambique with special reference to leprosy

Author:
Isabel Maria Casimiro and Júlio Machele
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The subject of this paper is health and ethnic inequalities in Mozambique, with special reference to leprosy. It is argued that the health policies and strategies adopted in the colonial and post-colonial periods led to an unequal distribution not only of certain diseases but also of health infrastructures. The colonial regime, by neglecting and creating ineffective leprosaria in central and northern Mozambique, ‘ethnicized’ Lazarus disease, a fact corroborated by its current unequal distribution. In turn, post-colonial health policies and health coverage failed to take this inequality into account. The current National Leprosy Control Program aims to end leprosy and thus eliminate its identification with the ethnolinguistic groups in northern and central Mozambique. This qualitative study, which draws on reports from the Ministry of Health and NGOs, statistics, and observations, falls within the scope of the social sciences, with an emphasis on the comparative historical-sociological method.
Topic:
Health, Inequality, Ethnicity, and Leprosy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

88. Does aid to the productive sectors cause manufacturing sector growth in Africa?

Author:
Alain Ndikumana
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent decades, Africa has received a large share of official development assistance compared to other regions of the world. Using AidData for 2000–13, this paper examines the effects of aid to productive sectors on manufacturing growth in Africa. Econometric results show that increased assistance to these sectors is associated with an increase in growth of the manufacturing sector, with complementary effects from allocations to economic services and infrastructures. However, dynamic panel regression results show a positive long-term link between increased official development assistance to productive sectors and growth of the manufacturing sector. These findings make an important contribution to the economic literature where there is controversy over aid effectiveness at the macro level. The findings also have policy implications for allocation of aid between sectors by making rational trade-offs related to their amount and quality, with emphasis on productive sectors where investment has a major impact on growth of the manufacturing industry.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Economic Growth, Manufacturing, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
Africa

89. Impact of teacher content knowledge on student achievement in a low-income country

Author:
Anna Holvio
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper estimates the causal impact of teacher content knowledge on student achievement in Mozambique, a low-income country where a large share of fourth-graders fail to meet the minimum requirements of literacy and numeracy. I use nationally representative data from the Service Delivery Indicator survey, and exploit within-student across-subject variation in a sample of students taught by the same teacher in maths and Portuguese, thus circumventing bias caused by unobserved student and teacher heterogeneity. I find that, on average, teacher content knowledge does not have an impact on student achievement. However, the impact varies significantly by student’s first language, urban or rural location of the school, and the match of students and teachers in their knowledge.
Topic:
Education, Literacy, and Teachers
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

90. Monetary policy in South Africa, 2007–21

Author:
Patrick Honohan and Athanasios Orphanides
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper reviews South Africa’s monetary policy since 2007 and makes recommendations towards improving the inflation-targeting framework currently in place. Following a surge in inflation into double digits in 2007/08, the South African Reserve Bank managed to guide inflation in line with the 3–6 per cent target band. Estimates of South Africa’s potential output underwent successive downward revisions. The resulting output gap misperceptions contributed to the tendency of inflation to be closer to the upper edge of the band in the 2010s. Our assessment is that the current definition of the target is not ambitious enough and reduces the benefits that inflation targeting could otherwise provide. An eventual point target of 3 per cent would better promote growth and protect the value of the currency, as mandated by the Republic’s Constitution.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economy, History, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

91. Two decades of Tanzanian health policy Examining policy developments and opportunities through a gender lens

Author:
Roosa Lambin and Milla Nyyssölä
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Tanzania has undertaken important health sector reforms in the new millennium, and the most recent Health Sector Strategic Plan (2021–26) lays out ambitious targets to achieve universal health coverage. Yet, women in Tanzania continue to face significant barriers in accessing healthcare and the country is grappling with important gender-biased health challenges disadvantaging women. The aims of this paper are two-fold. First, we examine the evolution of Tanzania’s health policy over the past two decades (2000–21) from the perspective of enhancing financial protection for working-age women. Second, we explore policy options for genderresponsive health insurance expansion in the context of Tanzania. Methodologically, the paper draws on a scoping study of diverse literature and data and a review of evidence from other contexts with public health insurance schemes. We find that Tanzania has a fragmented health system that relies on several independent schemes introduced throughout the years, characterized by insufficient risk-pooling. Such a system provides insufficient financial protection for workingage women and female-headed households, which are financially less secure than dual-earner households. Although expanding health insurance coverage represents a viable corrective measure, future reforms must account for women’s lower financial contribution capacity to enable equitable access. Additionally, the policy design requires gender-mainstreamed investments in awarenessraising, service quality, and benefit packages.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Reform, Women, Finance, and Health Insurance
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

92. The Tanzanian state response to COVID-19: Why low capacity, discursive legitimacy, and twilight authority matter

Author:
Amy S. Patterson
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Tanzania received significant global attention for its COVID-19 response during the first year of the pandemic. It did not share pandemic statistics, require masks, implement lockdowns, or close borders; it questioned testing and vaccine efficacy; and it emphasized traditional medicines as a cure. The country’s response reflected a centralized, paternalistic state that emerged under postcolonial president Julius Nyerere and that stressed self-reliance and national unity. Although local officials did have some discretion to respond, the state’s top-down solutions, its low capacity, and the broader campaign against bureaucratic corruption curtailed the space in which they could act. Nyerere’s legitimating discourse of nationalism, self-reliance, and paternalism further problematized the global cooperation needed to address the pandemic and limited the space in which civil society could challenge state actions. The state’s struggle for authority in the face of nonstate actors such as opposition parties and civil society groups led it to embrace strategies such as electoral authoritarianism to maintain control, thereby obscuring transparency and accountability in the pandemic. The focus on state capacity, legitimacy, and authority situate individual leaders’ actions in broader structural contexts, while also showing African state agency.
Topic:
Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, Legitimacy, Capacity, and Authority
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

93. Profit shifting by multinational corporations: Evidence from transaction-level data in Nigeria

Author:
Bathusi Gabanatlhong, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Paulinus Iyika, and Miroslav Palanský
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Research on profit shifting by multinational corporations in developing countries is limited due to a lack of data. In this paper we use, for the first time, novel administrative data on the transactions of multinational corporations operating in Nigeria vis-à-vis related parties in other jurisdictions. The data provides a breakdown of these intra-group transactions into seven categories: (1) tangible goods, (2) services and fees, (3) royalties, (4) interest, (5) dividends, (6) reimbursements, and (7) other. We develop a methodology that uses this data to identify which transactions are most often used by multinationals to shift profits out of Nigeria and estimate their relative importance. We find that profits reported in Nigeria are highly sensitive to the hypothetical tax that would be paid on a transaction’s value in the partner jurisdiction: a 1 per cent increase in the hypothetical tax on outgoing transactions is associated with a 0.28 per cent increase in reported profits in Nigeria. Payments for services and fees, royalties, and interest going from Nigerian companies to affiliates in low-tax countries are the most important channels of profit shifting in Nigeria. We argue that our approach can be used to inform low-cost policy interventions and increase audit efficiency with potentially strong effects on corporate income tax collection.
Topic:
Multinational Corporations, Profit, Transactions, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

94. Exploring social policy trajectories in Mainland Tanzania: Driving for gender-inclusive development?

Author:
Roosa Lambin and Milla Nyyssölä
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In July 2020, the United Republic of Tanzania gained the status of a lower-middleincome country. This came after two decades of significant social policy reforms and transformations in the country’s economic structures. This paper explores social policy trajectories in Mainland Tanzania with a gender lens, to better understand the contributions of these developments to inclusive development. More precisely, we examine past and current policy developments across the areas of health policy, social protection, and employment policy, and the level, reach, and quality of government social policy delivery to working-age women. The paper draws on a scoping review of diverse secondary materials, including academic publications, government policy documents, relevant statistics, and other types of literature. The findings indicate that despite significant advancements in the legal frameworks and increasingly gender-responsive government policy plans, Tanzanian social policy delivery remains two-tiered, with differences in provisions for women in the formal and informal sectors. Additionally, women continue to be largely overlooked in the broader industrialization and development strategy, which hinders the achievement of inclusive development in Tanzania.
Topic:
Development, Social Policy, Inclusion, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

95. Profit shifting by multinational corporations in Kenya: The role of internal debt

Author:
Roseline Misati, Kethi Ngoka, Anne Kamau, and Maureen Odongo
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Illicit financial flows directly impact a country’s ability to raise, retain, and mobilize its own resources to finance sustainable development. Against a backdrop of a weak public financial position attributed to capital flight, tax avoidance, and dependence on corporate income taxes, governments in Africa face impediments to their efforts to widen the tax base. Using firm-level annual data from 2015–19 from multinational corporations’ audited financial statements, we assess the scale of profit shifting by those corporations with a presence in Kenya. Using a panel analysis, the study delves into the incentives for profit shifting, focusing on internal debt. It finds that a 10 per cent increase in the difference between Kenya’s corporate tax rate and that of the lending corporation’s home country increases the internal debt ratio by between 1 and 2 per cent. The results provide a basis for the design of targeted tax and revenue administration reforms against the backdrop of rising revenue needs.
Topic:
Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Profit, and Corporate Tax
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

96. The Economic Complexity of Namibia: A Roadmap for Productive Diversification

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Douglas Barrios, Nikita Taniparti, Jorge Tudela Pye, and Jessie Lu
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
After a large growth acceleration within the context of the commodity super cycle (2000- 2015), Namibia has been grappling with three interrelated challenges: economic growth, fiscal sustainability, and inclusion. Accelerating technological progress and enhancing Namibia’s knowhow agglomeration is crucial to the process of fostering new engines of growth that will deliver progress across the three targets. Using net exports data at the four-digit level, we estimate the economic complexity of Namibia – a measure of knowhow agglomeration – vis-à-vis its peers. Our results suggest that Namibia’s economy is relatively less complex and attractive opportunities to diversify tend to be more distant. Based on economic complexity metrics, we define a place-specific path for productive diversification, identifying industries with high potential and providing inputs – related to their feasibility and attractiveness in Namibia – for further prioritization. Namibia’s path to structural transformation will likely be steeper than for most peers, calling for a more active policy stance geared towards progressive accumulation of productive capacities, well-targeted “long jumps”, and strengthening state capacity to sort out market failures associated with the process of self-discovery.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Economic Complexity, and Industry
Political Geography:
Africa and Namibia

97. Getting Real about Unknowns in Complex Policy Work

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering, organization and sense-making activities to up-front planning activities, and even though sophisticated tools like Theories of Change suggest planners ‘know’ all that is needed for policy success, they often do not. Policies are often fraught with ‘unknowns’ that cannot be captured in passive planning processes and thus repeatedly undermine even the best laid plans. Through a novel strategy that asks how much one knows about the answers to 25 essential policy questions, and an application to recent education policy interventions in Mozambique, this paper shows that it is possible to get real about unknowns in policy work. Just recognizing these unknowns exist—and understanding why they do and what kind of challenge they pose to policy workers—can help promote a more modest and realistic approach to doing complex policy work.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

98. A Growth Diagnostic of Namibia

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Douglas Barrios, Nikita Taniparti, Jorge Tudela Pye, Jose Francisco Muci, and Jessie Lu
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In the thirty years that have passed since independence, Namibia has been characterized by its over-reliance on its mineral resource wealth, procyclicality of macroeconomic policy, and large income disparities. After an initial decade marked by nation building and slow growth (1990-2000), the Namibian economy embarked on a rapid growth acceleration that lasted 15 years, within the context of the global commodity super cycle. Favorable terms of trade translated into an investment and export boom in the mining sector, which was amplified to the non-tradable sector of the economy through a significant public expenditure spree from 2008 onwards. Between 2000 and 2015 income and consumption per capita expanded at an average annual rate of 3.1%, poverty rates halved, and access to essential public goods expanded rapidly. As the commodity super cycle came to an end and the fiscal space was exhausted, Namibia experienced a significant reversal. Investment and exports plummeted, bringing GDP per capita to contract by 2.1% between 2015-2019. With debt-to-GDP ratios 3.5 times higher than those in 2008, the country embarked on a fiscal consolidation effort which brought the primary fiscal deficit from 6.8% of GDP in 2016 to 0.6% by March 2020. Along all these years, inequality has been endemic and is reflected across demographic characteristics and employment status. At present, a large majority of Namibians are unable to access well-paying formal sector jobs, as these tend to be particularly scarce outside of the public sector. Looking forward, the road to sustained inclusive growth and broad prosperity entails expanding the formal private labor market by diversifying the Namibian economy, while at the same time removing the barriers preventing Namibians from accessing these opportunities inherited from the apartheid.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, and Skills
Political Geography:
Africa and Namibia

99. Can Africa Compete in World Soccer?

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In March 2021, the Confederation of African Football’s President, Patrice Motsepe, insisted that “An African team must win the World Cup in the near future.” This visionary statement is infused with hope—not just for an African World Cup victory but for a fuller future in which African men’s soccer competes with world soccer’s elite. This paper asks if there is any chance of this happening. It suggests a simple method to assess how a country competes as both a ‘participant’ and a ‘rival’ and uses this method to examine how Africa’s top countries compete in world soccer. This analysis points to a gap between such countries and the world’s best, which has grown in recent decades— even though some African countries do compete more over time. The paper concludes by suggesting that Africa’s hope of winning the World Cup is not impossible but demands more active work, focused particularly on ensuring top African countries compete with more high-quality competition more often. The conclusion also suggests that the research approach might be relevant beyond a study of African soccer. It could particularly help shed light on how well African countries compete (as participants and rivals) in the world economy.
Topic:
Sports, Economy, Soccer, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa

100. America, You Better Believe That Africa Matters

Author:
Charles Ray
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In the minds of most Americans and Europeans, the continent of Africa has long been seen as peripheral to world affairs, looked at either as a source of natural resources ripe for extraction or a place of poverty and violence requiring massive amounts of aid. This is a shortsighted and distorted view of a diverse continent and is long overdue for a reset. The truth is that Africa is home to some of the planet’s most strategic minerals and other resources, and that natural and manmade disasters plague the continent. It is far more diverse and dynamic than popular culture, mainstream media, and even many foreign policy makers portray it. For a lot of reasons, some of them existential, it is far from peripheral; it matters.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America