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1. The Russian-Ukrainian War: An Opportunity to Strengthen the AfCFTA

Author:
Steve Tametong and Venessa Aboudi
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The world had hardly covered from the horrors of the COVID-19 pandemic when it was once again tested on February 24, 2022, by the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. The consequences of this war are quite significant for humanity. On the economic level, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has highlighted the disadvantages of globalization, understood as a process marked by the interconnection and interdependence of world economies. The inflationary shock and the food crisis resulting from the inoperative nature of import channels for certain basic necessities from Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated the fragility of the economies. With regard to African countries, in particular, the prices of several basic food products (wheat, flour, rice, maize, bread, vegetable oil, etc.) have risen sharply. Indeed, most African countries are almost dependent on the import of agricultural products and seeds from the two belligerent countries. These imports correspond to 35 billion US dollars of imports each year (1). This appears to be an incongruity given the extent of arable land on the African continent. The low production and especially processing capacity increases the dependence of African economies on the import of these basic products. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes it possible to question the economic resilience of African States, that is to say, their “capacity [ to] keep output close to [their] potential despite a shock ” (2). Above all, it offers the opportunity to analyze the economic and commercial potential of the AfCFTA in the process of building the resilience of African economies to external shocks. Indeed, the AfCFTA was officially launched in January 2021 with the main objective of “creating a single market for goods and services facilitated by the movement of people in order to deepen the economic integration of the African continent…” (3). This policy note is structured around the idea that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in view of its socio-economic consequences on the African continent, offers an opportunity for African countries to work toward the strengthening of the AfCFTA. So that it appears as a real pole of competitiveness and inter-African trade likely to counter the shocks and uncertainties of the dynamics of world trade. Before analyzing the AfCFTA as a pole of production and export of African products (II), it is necessary to take stock of the socio-economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on African economies (I).
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, Free Trade, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2. Explaining the experience of political violence in Nigeria

Author:
Tunde A. Alabi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Violence has been part of Nigeria’s politics since before political independence. While there have been attempts to understand why political violence happens in the country, little emphasis has been placed on explanatory factors for political-violence victimisation. This study investigates the influence of socio-demographic characteristics, presence of security apparatus, partisanship, political participation, and social group membership on the experience of political violence in Nigeria and examines how the influence of these factors varies between Northern and Southern Nigeria – two regions with major social and cultural differences. The study analyses data from the seventh round of the Afrobarometer survey, which were collected in 2017 from 1,568 adults across the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Multiple linear regression models were fitted. Our analysis finds that about one in four persons has experienced at least one form of political violence. Living in the South, being young, being poor, living in an area with no police presence, being partisan, participating in politics, and being active in social groups increase the likelihood of political-violence victimisation. While women were more likely than men to experience political violence in the North, the reverse is the case in the South. Regional variation is also observed in the influence of political participation and the degree of the effect of party affiliation and social group membership.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Gender Issues, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3. China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

4. Sign of the Times: How the United Kingdom’s Integrated Review Affects Relations with Africa

Author:
Zainab Usman and Jonathan Glennie
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In March 2021, the British government published a vision document: “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.”1 Previously, the government had issued documents on security, defense, development, or foreign policy, but this integrated review bundled together all aspects of policy related to a vision of a so-called Global Britain. This newly integrated approach to policymaking mirrors a strategic consolidation within the UK government, specifically the merger of the Department for International Development (DFID) with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to become a new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). While the review is framed as a necessary response to a changing global landscape, domestic political considerations around the British exit from the European Union (Brexit) weigh heavily. The review also points to the current UK government’s inclination to prize geopolitical competition over a previous emphasis on global cooperation. Steep cuts to the UK’s generous foreign aid budget as well as the abolition of DFID have already drawn significant academic, policy, and media attention. Yet these actions are part of a broader UK strategy to redefine the country’s relations to the rest of the world, with significant implications beyond the controversial foreign aid cuts for poor countries, including those in Africa. The review will shape relations with a continent that has deep historical ties from the colonial era, a large diasporic presence, and long-standing economic relations with the UK. This analysis draws out the implications of the UK’s 2021 integrated review for African countries and recommends next steps for African and other international stakeholders to navigate the UK’s overhauled external relations strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, and Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and United Kingdom

5. Defying United Nations Sanctions: Three Reasons for African Engagement with North Korea

Author:
Tycho van der Hoog
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The United Nations (UN) sanctions against North Korea are weakened by structural evasion techniques and weak enforcement. The African continent is a crucial node in the global illicit networks of North Korea. This paper examines three motives for African states to cooperate with North Korea, with a particular focus on the context of southern Africa: historical affinity (reciprocity), the practical issue of maintenance dependency (necessity), and the presence of weak enforcement regimes (opportunity). Based on a deep reading of UN Panel of Experts reports, academic literature and policy papers, novel archival material, and an interview with a defected North Korean diplomat, this paper argues that solutions to strengthen the sanctions regime can be successful only if they are grounded in African initiatives.
Topic:
Security, Economics, United Nations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and North Korea

6. The Challenges of Data Collection in Conflict-affected Areas: A Case Study in the Liptako-Gourma Region

Author:
Shourjya Deb and Virginie Baudais
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Conducting research in the Sahel has become more challenging over the past 10 years, and the continuing deterioration of the security situation has restricted access to many areas. This SIPRI Insights paper provides an overview of the main challenges for researchers when conducting data collection in conflict-affected areas. The paper employs a case study of a humanitarian protection project that SIPRI has been working on in the Liptako-Gourma region. The project was designed in collaboration with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) and three local research partners: the Centre for Democratic Governance (CGD) in Burkina Faso, Point Sud in Mali and the Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherche sur les Dynamiques Sociales et le Développement Local (LASDEL) in Niger. Using the case study, the paper identifies and outlines how the project addressed specific challenges. The paper also highlights key considerations for researchers to take into account when carrying out data collection and fieldwork in conflict zones. Evidence-based research can influence humanitarian and development initiatives and support shifts in policy and programming. The bottom-up research approach gives a voice to communities and alternative perspectives and advances evidence-based solutions that are locally driven, meaningful and sustainable for target populations.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Governance, Conflict, Peace, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

7. Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa: Assessing the Evidence

Author:
Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
West Africa is widely cited as a hotspot of climate change and insecurity. This SIPRI Insights uses a systematic literature review of academic research to build a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in the region. Its findings are structured around four established ‘pathways’ of climate insecurity: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns; (c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances. The literature review highlights a number of important variables in the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: maladaptation to livelihood insecurity; migration away from climate-exposed areas; escalating farmer–herder conflicts; and sometimes weak, sometimes divisive, sometimes exploitative governance. Despite these findings, the literature review reveals current research and policy discussions on climate change and violent conflict in West Africa are informed by a very limited amount of academic research.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Conflict, Violence, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

8. Social Protection in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from South Africa

Author:
Lena Gronbach, Jeremy Seekings, and Vayda Megannon
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa responded to the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown using a combination of existing social protection programmes, unemployment insurance, and additional measures to support those most affected. This paper reviews policies and implementation with the objective of highlighting lessons for the global community, including on the use of digital mechanisms. The government adopted a two-pronged and largely cash-based approach: unemployment benefits for formal sector workers and cash transfers to vulnerable individuals, informal workers, and beneficiaries of existing grants. Top-up payments for existing grants were rolled out efficiently; the new Special Relief of Distress (SRD) grant posed challenges but ultimately succeeded in reaching over six million previously uncovered beneficiaries. It may even become a permanent feature of South Africa’s social protection system. Overall, the government reached over 30 million South Africans with cash-based relief measures. A distinctive feature of cash-based emergency relief was the use of digital technologies, especially in the application and verification process for the new SRD grant. The payment system, however, relied heavily on manual cash disbursements, thus failing to reflect the adoption of innovative digital technologies observed in many other African countries.
Topic:
Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

9. War in Ukraine and food insecurity in Tunisia: Where is reform most needed?

Author:
Khouloud Ayari
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since February 2022, food insecurity due to the war in Ukraine has become a key issue of public debate in Tunisia, shedding light on the country’s food dependence, given that it imports more than half of its needs. This paper analyzes the significant changes concerning agriculture and food in terms of dependency and sovereignty in the contemporary agricultural history of Tunisia.
Topic:
Security, Poverty, Food, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

10. The African-France Summit and an Overview of its Recommendations Since 1973

Author:
Fabien Sundjo
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
France’s earliest profit-making involvement in Africa in the business of buying and transporting slaves started in the 17th century when the local Indian population proved unable to work in plantations in America compared to black Africans. France’s interest in Africa reached its zenith in the 19th and early 20th centuries when France acquired a gigantic African empire. Though several reasons could explain the scramble for Africa by France, we present herein the three most important. First, the defeat of France in the 1870 Prussian war in which she lost influence and a reduction in her international ego. Second, the anxiety to implement Colbert’s mercantilist philosophy emphasized that any rising industrial power required to have both the source of raw materials and market extension under her control. Third and finally, as Europeans scrambled for Africa, France feared their traditional enemies could annex a remarkable share of the territory. Hence, from the outset, it was not the financial gains that many thoughts motivated France’s involvement in Africa but politics and national ego. It will only be later that France saw Africa as a cheap source of military manpower that could help balance demographic stagnation in France. This perception will later be reinforced by her experience in the two World wars. In this light, Iliffe (2007) holds that French colonial policy was characterized by the exploitation of rich resources from Africa. In the midst of all these benefits from colonization in Africa, Charles de Gaulle‘s decision to retain influence in Africa after decolonization in 1960 was driven by the need to persist with these benefits under neo-colonization. According to Abdurrahim (2014), in Africa, France uses a realist foreign policy in which states shape their foreign policies based on their national interests. To facilitate the implementation of this realist foreign policy, France will design the Franco-African summit that will cement France’s influence in her former colonies to date. Were France’s policies put in place through the Franco-African summits shaped to benefit France solely? This paper aims to present the Franco-African Summit and carry out a stocktake of France’s commitments through recommendations from the Franco-African Summit.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

11. Egypt as the Cornerstone of the New Regional Security Architecture

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The stability and orientation of the region’s most populous country, Egypt, remain crucial components of the newly emerging regional security architecture and its new strategic alignments.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Egypt, and MENA

13. Water Politics in Libya: A Crisis of Management, not Scarcity

Author:
Malak Altaeb
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Libya is one of the driest countries in the world. The Great Man-Made River Project, touted by Qaddhafi as a solution to take advantage of Libya’s plentiful natural resources, serves as a case study in social and institutional engineering. This article discusses the defining characteristics and legacies of hydro-politics under Qaddhafi, presents some of the new issues that have emerged since regime change in 2011, and offers some ways forward for water policy in Libya.
Topic:
Security, Natural Resources, Water, and Resource Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

14. Partial Normalization: Morocco’s Balancing Act

Author:
Yasmina Abouzzohour
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Following the UAE, and Bahrain, and one month before Sudan, Morocco became the third country in the MENA region to normalize ties with Israel in 2020. In exchange for resuming ties with Tel Aviv, Rabat benefited from important security and financial deals with the United States and ensured the recognition of the kingdom’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. This paper explores the domestic, regional, and international politics that determined the kingdom’s approach and assesses how the kingdom has navigated competing pressures.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

15. The Egypt-Israel Common Strategic Agenda

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egyptian and Israeli interests converge in Gaza, Sinai, Syria, and Libya, and regarding Turkey and other regional matters
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

16. The Costs of United States’ Post-9/11 “Security Assistance”: How Counterterrorism Intensified Conflict in Burkina Faso and Around the World

Author:
Stephanie Savell
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
United States “security assistance” exports a militarized counterterrorism model to dozens of countries through money, training, and weapons. This model comes with dangerous costs. The narrative, tactics, funding, and institutional supports of the U.S. post-9/11 wars fuel repression and corruption, and escalate cycles of violence. This paper delves into the current conflict in Burkina Faso as an illustrative case study of how the U.S. counterterrorism model has caused more, not less, instability and violence. Despite the relatively low levels of terrorism assessed in Burkina Faso at the time, the United States laid the groundwork for increased militarism in the region when it began providing security assistance to the country in 2009. Today, Burkina Faso is enveloped in a spiraling conflict involving government forces, state-sponsored militias, and militant groups, and civilians are paying the price. Militant groups have strengthened and seized territory, ethnic tensions have skyrocketed, thousands of Burkinabe have been killed and over one million displaced. A Burkina-based human rights group has warned that the government’s ethnic killings may lead to the “next Rwanda.”
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, United States of America, and Burkina Faso

17. Opportunities for Danish stabilisation policy to engage with climate- and livelihood-related conflict: New approaches to fragility in the Horn of Africa and Sahel

Author:
Peer Schouten
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Horn of Africa and the Sahel are among the most fragile regions in the world: poor, lacking basic infrastructure and state presence across much of their respective territories, and both form hotbeds of conflict and political instability compounded by climate change. This DIIS Working Paper focuses on identifying evolving notions of fragility that could strengthen Danish stabilisation efforts in the Horn and Sahel. It foregrounds notions of fragility that move away from a focus on strong state institutions towards the adaptive capacities of populations in the hinterlands of the Horn and the Sahel to deal with conflict and climate variability. The paper gives an overview of this rapidly evolving field and distils key insights, challenges and future options by exploring the question, how can we support people in the Sahel and Horn to re-establish their responsibility for their respective territories and the management of their natural resources? The paper addresses this question by exploring the implications of recent climate change and livelihoods research on how we approach fragility and, by extension, stabilisation. On the basis of such research, the Working Paper advocates a move away from a sector-based understanding of fragility towards a way of working that is more in line with contextual realities, alongside the ‘comprehensive approach’ to stabilisation that Denmark promotes. The key message is that, programmatically, Danish stabilisation efforts across both regions could benefit from a more explicit focus on supporting the variability that dominant livelihood strategies require and that need to be considered if sustainable security and development outcomes are to be achieved. Failing to do this will only serve to marginalise key communities and may drive them further into the arms of radical groups.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Environment, Radicalization, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Denmark, and Horn of Africa

18. For Mozambique’s government, is radical Islam exclusively a security issue?

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist analyzes the response of the government of Mozambique to the growing security threat of Islamist violence in the north of the country. To address this problem, she explains the background of the issue and calls for a broad approach that would deal with social and ethnic marginalization, as well.
Topic:
Security, Government, Islam, Violence, and Marginalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

19. Conflict Mediation and Peacebuilding in the Sahel: The Role of Maghreb Countries in an African Framework

Author:
Virginie Baudais, Amal Bourhrous, and Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Conflict dynamics in the Sahel are complex. The region faces a multidimensional crisis that includes the proliferation of terrorist groups, criminal networks, environmental pressures, state weaknesses and severe governance problems. In addition to this internal context, the Sahel crisis has been affected by external factors, such as the fall of Muammar Gaddafi and the civil war in Libya. Its deeper causes can be found in the structural factors of fragility in the sociopolitical dynamics of internal divisions, serial uprisings and weak states. Having started as a largely Malian conflict, the crisis now affects the whole Sahel region and, despite the deployment of military and security operations, it continues to get worse. A new approach is needed. The authors of this Policy Paper identify regionally and locally driven solutions as one such way to support development and promote peace. They highlight how stronger involvement of the Maghreb countries that share borders with the crisis-affected countries to their south could be a critical factor in building the foundations of stability and starting to meet longer-term development objectives. Given their engagement with Sahel crises in the past and the multiple linkages that connect the two regions, the role of these countries—and especially Algeria and Morocco—could be pivotal. Despite challenges, African-led initiatives are perceived to be more legitimate and to have a deeper understanding of local contexts. The authors thus recommend that the African Union, with its emphasis on endeavouring to bring ‘African solutions to African problems’, provides the framework for coordinated action in the Sahel. This paper offers a fresh assessment of the situation in the Sahel in the context of relations with neighbouring Maghreb countries. The authors’ insightful analysis and recommendations will be of interest to policymakers in Africa, in Europe and elsewhere, as well as to local actors and other stakeholders involved in mediation and peacebuilding efforts in the Sahel.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Maghreb, and Sahel

20. The European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic: An Assessment

Author:
Annelies Hickendorff and Igor Acko
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This SIPRI Background Paper provides an overview of the European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic (EUTM RCA) and assesses its impact on the country’s conflict dynamics since it was established in 2016. The second of three country-specific papers, it is part of a larger SIPRI project analysing the effectiveness of the EU’s training missions in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Mali. All three papers will feed into a synthesis paper that will offer a comparative analysis of the missions and recommendations for the way forward. This paper analyses EUTM RCA’s main training and advisory activities, before assessing its political and operational impacts. It summarizes the main factors that account for the mission’s successes and limitations, and makes five recommendations to augment the future impact of the mission. It concludes that EUTM RCA has made an impact in terms of military capacity building and assistance to the national Ministry of Defence, but so far there has been little tangible progress in terms of structural reform of the defence sector or the transformation of the armed forces. In addition, EUTM RCA faces many obstacles that lie largely beyond its control. The main challenges of lack of national ownership and limited political engagement cannot be addressed with technical solutions alone.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, European Union, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

21. Egyptian Mediation between Israel and Hamas Can Be Useful

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For the first time in 13 years, an Israeli foreign minister (Gabi Ashkenazi, a former Chief of Staff of the IDF) has visited Egypt for talks with his Egyptian counterpart (Sameh Shukri). At the same time, the head of Egyptian Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, landed in Israel to discuss the situation regarding Gaza with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gantz. Both visits are parts of a bid by President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi to take the lead in stabilizing the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and managing the next steps in the broader Israeli-Palestinian context. Egypt has already benefitted from this. The initiative broke the ice between Sisi and the Biden Administration. Israel, stands to gain, as well. Unlike their predecessors, Sisi and Shukri have welcomed the Abraham Accords. Israel and Egypt have common interests in the eastern Mediterranean. And the Egyptians, for their own reasons, do not trust Hamas. Still, Israel is entitled to insist that as mediators, the Egyptians should keep Jerusalem off the table. It would be dangerous for many in the region were Hamas to gain a strategic foothold there. Israel also should insist on a swift release of its citizens held by Hamas and the return of the bodies of dead soldiers held since 2014. Additionally, it would be useful for the Egyptian government to curb the coarse anti-Israeli and often antisemitic discourse in its state-owned media and the Egyptian public domain, which acts to constrain Cairo’s options.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

22. The Center Is Not Holding: Analyzing South Sudan’s Social Cohesion Architecture in the Evolving Context of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan

Author:
Tunji Namaiko
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
South Sudan is making major strides in peace consolidation and strengthening social cohesion since the signing of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) on 12 September 2018 in Addis Ababa. However, this paper argues that, despite these efforts, the center is not holding as inter-communal violence and a myriad of political and security dynamics are reversing many of these gains. As the conflict is protracted, peacebuilding remains a severe challenge while social cohesion remains weakened. The paper commences with a conceptual clarification of social cohesion before analyzing current evolving social cohesion dynamics and trends. This is followed by a discussion of the social cohesion programming challenges and consequently centers on Key Driving Factors (KDF) of conflict. Finally, the paper ends with an analysis of the drivers of conflict and peace and makes recommendations for strengthening social cohesion going forward.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

23. Great Expectations: Defining A Trans-Mediterranean Cybersecurity Agenda

Author:
Patryk Pawlak
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
European Union (EU) cooperation on cybersecurity with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is conditioned by two competing claims. Due to the geographical proximity and broad security implications for the EU, the MENA region is one of the priorities of the EU’s external relations. Over the past two decades, and especially after the Arab Spring, the EU has invested significant resources to support the reforms in the region and align its policies with its own. At the same time, however, this ambition to cooperate closely with the region is often made more complicated by the situation on the ground. This is particularly the case of cyber resilience cooperation, where even despite overlapping interests – like the fight against cybercrime or improving the overall level of cybersecurity – the EU needs to exercise enhanced due diligence in order to avoid undermining the already fragile human rights protection in some of those countries. Reconciling these two elements – the willingness to engage in closer cooperation and the need for a cautious approach to cybersecurity cooperation – remains the key challenge. Against this background, the study aims to address two questions. First, to what extent are different initiatives and policies implemented across the region compatible with the EU’s own interests and values? Second, who are the key multipliers on cybersecurity in the region that could potentially align with the EU in certain aspects and help it achieve its policy objectives? Which of these relationships are mature enough or require further work in order to turn into concrete cooperation initiatives? These two sets of questions guide the discussion in each of the chapters.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

24. Mali and the Challenges of Democratic Rule: Implications for Continental Democracy

Author:
Peter SAKWE MASUMBE
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Development-oriented public policies and governances within African countries are at extensive peril as African soldiers become zealots and threats to political power. As Klatt (2021) asserts, “…two hundred and eighty days appear to be the time a banana’s flowering stalk needs to produce fruits”. Paradoxically, it is the time it took Malians to live within a first coup d’état from August 2020 to a second one in May 2021. Consequently, the AU, ECOWAS, SADC must take definite actions to avert military and undemocratic incursions into political power. This is the position of this policy brief. Exasperated policy pundits had crafted parlances for what happened on May 25, 2021, in Bamako, when former coup leader Colonel Assimi Goita re-took Mali’s destiny into his own hands again by overthrowing the Transition President and Prime Minister. Is he a power zealot, a nationalist, or a sheer adventurer? Irrespective of the exigencies and necessities, democracy is at peril in that country, and by extension, the continent. Ostensibly, the developments in that Sahel country, with its poverty index and human insecurity, sounding astronomically frightful (Kelechi 2021), Ugoh 2021), present a great leeway for soldiers in other countries to interrupt the growth of democracy. No matter the benevolence of military rule, a lame civilian regime incarnates some degree of democracy; consequently, Mali is at its undemocratic intersections, with a doubtful democratic certainty.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Military Strategy, Governance, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

25. The Challenges of Governance, Development and Security in the Central Regions of Mali

Author:
Mamadou Bodian, Aurélien Tobie, and Myriam Marending
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Since 2015 Mali’s central regions of Mopti and Ségou have become insecure hotspots at the confluence of interconnected challenges in terms of governance, development and security. Although international interventions involving a full range of actors and sectors are being increasingly reoriented towards these regions, the sustainability of the responses depends on their ability to draw on the needs and priorities of local communities. This SIPRI Insights is based on a study that combines both quantitative and qualitative data to provide an evidence-based analysis of local perspectives in Mopti and Ségou. It highlights how the people there understand and respond to the governance, development and security challenges they face.
Topic:
Security, Development, Governance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Mali and Africa

26. Ethiopia’s Transition: Implications for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region

Author:
Jason Mosley
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. Ethiopia’s transition has affected its relations in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security since 2015, contributing to a major diplomatic rift with Qatar since 2017. Elucidating how states in the Horn of Africa are affected by and responding to external influences largely hinges on understanding the Ethiopian transition. The implications for the future of regional integration in the Horn of Africa must also be considered.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa

27. Stability in the time of COVID-19: implications for the Sahel

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Since the early 2010s, increased volatility in the Sahel has aroused widespread concern, spurring the establishment of regional and international groupings to deal with the many security and governance challenges that have undermined stability in the region. Among those efforts were the creation of the G5 Sahel cooperation framework (2014), the G5 Sahel Joint Force (2017), the Sahel Alliance (2017) – and more recently, in June 2020, the International Coalition for the Sahel, to tackle instability in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Those five countries are the focus of this paper.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, and Burkina Faso

28. Egypt after the Coronavirus: Back to Square One

Author:
Ishac Diwan, Nadim Houry, and Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Egypt’s recent security and macro-economic stabilization has been built on weak foundations and Covid-19 has further exposed this fragility. Egypt is now back to a situation broadly similar to that before the 2011 revolution: stable on the surface, but with deep structural problems and simmering social grievances, and little buffers to mitigate them. This paper argues for a major shift in the ways the country is currently governed in favour of greater openness in politics and markets, and for the international community to seriously engage Egypt on the need to reform economically and politically.
Topic:
Security, Arab Spring, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

29. Ordinary Shareholders' Rights Protection in Botswana

Author:
Ratang Sedimo and Kelesego Mmolainyane
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This study seeks to examine institutional frameworks that exist in Botswana to protect the rights of ordinary shareholders. There is no literature on the subject matter in the context of Botswana; hence this study attempts to fill in the literature gap. The study uses a variety of data collection methods, such as semi-structured interviews, the Choppies case study and lessons learnt from other jurisdictions. Findings reveal that ordinary shareholders’ rights protection involves the use of institutional frameworks. In Botswana, existing frameworks are not adequate to protect ordinary shareholders’ rights. Furthermore, the study shows that ordinary shareholders in Botswana are mainly exposed to risks of losing their investments, partially or entirely, in case of non-compliance to regulatory requirements as shown by the reduction in Choppies’ stock price from P1.20 to P0.40 between years 2012 and 2018. The study suggests that the existing institutional frameworks should be reviewed to ensure adequate protection of ordinary shareholders’ rights.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Human Rights, Investment, Macroeconomics, Land Rights, and Labor Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

30. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa

Author:
Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

31. Paris, Algiers Concerned over Mali’s Transitional Regime

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses the regional and international challenges facing Mali's new transitional government, and its precarious security situation. Can Mali’s new government regain territorial control and restore personal security? For the past four months, Mali has been governed by a transition government that was set up after a military coup d’état in the summer of 2020. The international community initially condemned the coup, but it has since been forced to accept this reality, and has been encouraging Mali’s military and the transition government to advance the implementation of the 2015 Algiers peace accords. Yet actions taken so far by the military and the new regime do not bode well for the future of the country, and are showing signs of weakness vis-à-vis a multitude of armed groups, including several jihadi militant organizations.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali

32. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:

Author:
Emadeddin Badi
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

33. Egypt-Jordan-Iraq: Another Middle East Axis in the Making?

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan seek to develop a regional bloc in the geographical center of the Arab world. But all three countries are poor and dependent in for economic largesse on more wealthy partners, so their regional aspirations and strategies will necessarily be limited.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

34. Norm and Dissidence: Egyptian Shiʿa between Security Approaches and Geopolitical Stakes

Author:
Stéphane Valter
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:
This paper presents a study of Egyptian Shiʿism by providing historical context as well as a focus on actual or current issues. The study includes a historical overview of local Shiʿism (Fatimid period, late nineteenth century, 1940s–1960s, and contemporary period); Shiʿi institutions and personalities; the situation following Egypt’s 2011 revolution; the hectic one-year government of the Muslim Brotherhood (2012–2013); President al-Sisi’s authoritarian takeover; and, finally, an exploration of the current geopolitical stakes, focusing mainly on the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran over religious hegemony.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, and Shia
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

35. The Foreign Military Presence in the Horn of Africa Region

Author:
Neil J. Melvin
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The Horn of Africa is undergoing far-reaching changes in its external security environment. A wide variety of international security actors—from Europe, the United States, the Middle East, the Gulf and Asia—are currently operating in the region. As a result, the Horn of Africa has experienced a proliferation of foreign military bases and a build-up of naval forces. The external militarization of the Horn poses major questions for the future security and stability of the region. This SIPRI Background Paper is the first of three papers devoted to the new external security politics of the Horn of Africa. The paper maps the growth of foreign military forces in and around the Horn over the past two decades. The other two papers in this series are ‘The New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, April 2019) and ‘Managing the New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region’ (SIPRI Policy Brief, April 2019).
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa

36. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Somalia

Author:
Karolina Eklöw and Florian Krampe
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Climate-related security risks are transforming the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts take place. This policy paper offers a glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the time of climate change by providing an in-depth assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). Climate-related change in Somalia has reduced livelihood options and caused migration. It has also left significant parts of the population in a vulnerable condition. These climate-related security risks contribute to grievances and increase inequality and fragility, which in turn pose challenges to the implementation of UNSOM’s mandate. The impacts of climate change have hindered UNSOM in its work to provide peace and security in Somalia and in its efforts to establish functioning governance and judicial systems. UNSOM has responded to the growing impact of climate-related change. It has learned lessons from previous failed responses—notably the 2011 drought—and has created innovative initiatives that have been effective. While there is still room for improvement, UNSOM’s new initiatives may help to deliver a set of responses that meet the short-term need for a rapid humanitarian response and the long-term objective of achieving a sustainable and resilient society. The challenges faced by UNSOM and its responses to them have wider implications. They suggest that there is a need for synergetic policy responses that can turn the responses to climate-related security risks into opportunities for UN efforts to sustain peace.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Migration, Governance, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

37. Returnees in the Maghreb: Comparing Policies on Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia

Author:
Thomas Renard
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The conflict in Syria and Iraq has mobilised an unprecedented number of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs). More than 50,000 individuals travelled to the Levant to join jihadi groups. While fighters have flocked from virtually every corner of the world, a significant contingent came from North Africa. This has created an unprecedented challenge for individual countries, as well as for the broader Maghreb and Mediter- ranean regions. The ‘Caliphate’ has now been defeated with the loss of its remaining territories. While many people were killed, thousands of fighters and family members are either in detention in Syria or in Iraq – or still on the run. Authorities worldwide are contem- plating – or should be contemplating – the possible return of these fighters in the short to medium term and how to deal with them. In fact, more than a thousand North African fighters have already returned home since 2012. Following this unprecedented number of jihadi volunteers, countries must now handle an unprecedented number of jihadi veterans who present a multi-faceted security and societal challenge from prosecution to detention and rehabilitation. Arguably, whether they return or not, some of these fighters are likely to have a lasting effect on the global jihadi movement and on local dynamics in their country of origin. As highlighted in this report, history is a reminder that even small numbers of veteran fighters can have a significant impact on local, regional and global security. There has been a growing amount of research into (returning) foreign fighters recently.1 This research was needed to better understand the phenomenon, either in general terms or at a country-specific level. Most of this research focused on departures rather than returns, and it focused often more on the individual dynamics and motivations rather than on governments’ debates and responses. Yet, as most governments still grapple with returnees, it is important to look into governments’ responses, with a view to opening a discussion and possibly making some recom- mendations. In this report, we have therefore decided to focus on governments’ responses to the issue of returning foreign fighters in North Africa, in light of the unprecedented regional mobilisation. Tunisia, notably, has often been described as the largest provider of foreign fighters to the Levant, or certainly one of its top purveyors. Egypt and Morocco have also seen a significant mobilisation for jihad, justifying their inclu- sion in our study. We offer a comparative analysis of the situation in these three North African countries: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Such an approach, using similar guidelines for all contributing authors, allows for interesting comparisons between the circum- stances that led to the departure of fighters and the responses to dealing with their return. Contributors were asked to look into domestic perceptions and debates related to the threat from returnees, and the specific policies developed to handle them. They were also asked to compare current perceptions and responses with previous jihadi mobilisations.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

38. Security Forces’ Strategies of Resistance to Transitional Justice

Author:
Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Security forces are key actors in transitional justice, with the ability to hamper or upend the process. While concerns have often centred on their possible violent responses to transitional justice, security forces are generally more likely to mobilise more discrete forms of resistance. Drawing on transitional justice experiences in Brazil, Chile, Sierra Leone and Uganda this policy brief identifies six types of resistance strategies used by security forces: threatening violence, obstructionism, de-legitimation, strategic cooperation, disengagement and appropriation. It also examines which contextual factors may influence which strategies the security forces are more likely to pursue.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Violence, and Justice
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Brazil, South America, Sierra Leone, and Chile

39. Responding to the Rise in Violent Extremism in the Sahel

Author:
Pauline Le Roux
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Sahel has experienced the most rapid increase in militant Islamist group activity of any region in Africa in recent years. Violent events involving extremist groups in the region have doubled every year since 2015. In 2019, there have been more than 700 such violent episodes (see Figure 1). Fatalities linked to these events have increased from 225 to 2,000 during the same period. This surge in violence has uprooted more than 900,000 people, including 500,000 in Burkina Faso in 2019 alone. Three groups, the Macina Liberation Front (FLM),1 the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS),2 and Ansaroul Islam,3 are responsible for roughly two-thirds of the extremist violence in the central Sahel.4 Their attacks are largely concentrated in central Mali, northern and eastern Burkina Faso, and western Niger (see Figure 2). Multiple security and development responses have been deployed to address this crisis. While some progress has been realized, the continued escalation of extremist violence underscores that more needs to be done.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Regional Cooperation, and Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

40. A Review of Major Regional Security Efforts in the Sahel

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Increased attacks from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel coupled with cross-border challenges such as trafficking, migration, and displacement have prompted a series of regional and international security responses.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Trafficking, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Sahel, and Niger

41. Situating Security Sector Reforms in Kenya’s Discourse on Inclusion and National Dialogue Process

Author:
Christopher Gitari
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This paper explores political exclusion in Kenya and its consequences on the social fabric of the nation. It draws from past governmental reports and analysis to formulate new recommendations that can inform current discourse. It first provides an overview of ethnicity in Kenya. It then describes experiences of exclusion by minority groups, as well as state responses to exclusion. Finally, it looks at efforts to reform the security sector. It closes by offering some general guiding principles and recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Transitional Justice, Participation, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

42. Reforming Kenya’s Security Sector: Policing Culture and Youth

Author:
Agatha Ndonga
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Between April 15 and May 3, 2019, ICTJ held a number of consultations with Kenyan youth from several informal settlements in Nairobi and Mombasa to reflect on their understanding of security sector reforms and their connection to the ongoing national dialogue process, particularly as it relates to inclusion. This briefing paper presents the key issues of concern raised by these young people and based on them offers recommendations for reforming the policing culture in Kenya.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Youth Culture, Culture, Reform, and Youth
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

43. Refuges: Benediction or Curse To Cameroon's Economy, 1982-2017

Author:
D. N. Keming
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
The present study focuses on the contribution of refugees to the growth of Cameroon’s economy. Its focus spanned from 1982 when the UNHCR country office was officially established to 2017 with the collapse of Boko Haram’s pressure on Cameroon. It assesses the benefits and liabilities of refugees to Cameroon’s economy within the time frame. This is experimented through the size of the refugee population, capital transfer, employment opportunities, commerce, and the agriculture industry. These themes were arrived at with the help of primary, secondary, and tertiary data; and construed with mixed methodologies. The work reveals that on a comparative score, refugees are largely a blessing than a curse to the economy of Cameroon. In spite of their constructive role, they also constitute, to a negligible extent, liabilities to the development of Cameroon. The paper therefore argue that refugees should seize to be seen as burdens, but rather as powerful economic actors if properly exploited by recipient countries. Although they may constitute major security and social problems like theft, robbery, population explosion and health challenges, they are manageable. Besides, even without refugees, no country is devoid of security and social challenges.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Refugee Issues, Refugees, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

44. Climate Security in the Sahel and the Mediterranean: Local and Regional Responses

Author:
A. Bassou, A. Chielewska, and X. Ruiz-Campillo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean connects Europe to Africa. The Mediterranean basin is thus an area of ​​interaction between the two continents. However, there is a perception that limits the Mediterranean basin to its strictest geographical sense, that is to say the countries of southern Europe and those of North Africa, which border the Mediterranean. This traditional conception ignores the geopolitical context, which broadens the vision of the Mediterranean basin by including all the spaces that impact it. Some human phenomena, such as migration, show that Mediterranean relations do not only concern the states bordering this sea, but a much larger area including the whole European Union, on the one hand, and North African, Sahelian and Sub-Saharan countries, on the other hand. The present study takes into account the broader conception of the Mediterranean. In this sense, it not only deals with the effects of climate change on the countries bordering the Mediterranean, but extends its analysis to the whole European Union (EU), to the Maghreb and especially to the Sahel. Due to its geography, climate, demography, proliferation of conflicts or its precarious level of industrialization, the Sahel region is the most threatened in the world by climate change. Any deterioration of the situation in the Sahel countries undoubtedly has repercussions on Europe and its relations with Africa. The four authors of the study examine the impact of climate change on the stability of the Sahel and the effects that the instability of this region could have on the Mediterranean space. The authors question the potential links between climate change and security. They outline the positions and frameworks of European actions as well as the different initiatives taken by EU institutions. Finally, they put forward some recommendations on how to effectively address this phenomenon.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Political stability, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Mediterranean

45. Bringing Regional Politics to the Study of Security Sector Reform: Army Reform in Sierra Leone and Iraq

Author:
Selman Almohamad
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that the scholarship on security sector reform (SSR) tends to neglect regional politics in the formulation of its concepts and policies, and that this neglect deprives the study of SSR of a valuable analytical level. It therefore uses comparative historical analysis and the model of regional conflict formations (RCFs) to examine army reforms in Sierra Leone and Iraq from a regional angle, thereby illustrating the explanatory potential that regional politics could bring to the study of SSR and its implementation. The paper also distinguishes between convergent and divergent regional formations, whereby the relationship between SSR outcomes and regional politics is conceived of as constitutive, entangled, and holistic.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Military Affairs, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, and Sierra Leone

46. The Challenges of Reintegration

Author:
Oluwatoyin Oluwaniyi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War shifted the focus from international wars between states to internal wars with immense consequences for unarmed civilians, such as occurred in the African countries of Angola, Burundi, Central Afri- can Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Liberia, So- malia, and Sudan, to mention a few. The nature of these wars makes these countries susceptible to further wars. To avoid such conflict traps, peace- building measures such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have been introduced to pave the way for an easier transition from conflict to peace, by minimizing risks from ex-combatants as possible spoil- ers and, restoring hope and security to victims of conflict while developing their communities. Evidence from countries that have utilized DDR, such as Angola, DRC, So- malia, and Liberia, suggests that while disarmament and demobilization may be essential, reintegration remains the most critical component of post-conflict peace and security.3 Debate continues over the notion that while disarmament and demobilization entail short-term security opera- tions, they do not by themselves bring sustainable benefits; reintegration focuses on extensive long-term development efforts that are critical to avoiding the conflict trap and sustaining peace in the long run. Short-term security does not bring about sustainable benefits unless it is coordinated with long-term community development strategies. Reintegration address- es the economic and social transformation of both ex-combatants and the overall communities they are joining, yet the full implementation of this pro- cess is generally ignored in DDR programs in post-conflict countries. This paper focuses on the extent of implementation of the reintegration phase in the Niger Delta region’s post-conflict (usually called post-amnesty) period and its impact on peace, security, and development in the region. The Nigerian federal government embraced the post-amnesty DDR concept in June 2009 to set the pace for gradual resolution of the violence that had embroiled the region for almost a decade. During the execution of the disar- mament and demobilization phases, the Niger Delta region recorded initial progress in peace and security demonstrated by an increase in oil produc- tion from an estimated 700 barrels per day (bpd) to an estimated 2,500 bpd in early 2010. However, the implementation of the reintegration phase has raised several questions due to the region’s relapse into violence and crime. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the factors working against suc- cessful implementation of the reintegration process. A critical analysis of the process will enhance the understanding of schol- ars and policymakers alike on what constitutes sustainable reintegration and at the same time, how it may be achieved in post-conflict societies. The focus on reintegration is meant to facilitate a specific consideration of its importance as the point of intersection between short- and long-term peacebuilding processes.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Peace, Integration, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

47. Enhancing Multilateral Support for Security Sector Reform:A Mapping Study covering the United Nations, the African Union, the European Union, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

Author:
Vincenza Scherrer and Alba Bescos Pou
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Multilateral organizations are playing an important role in shaping the SSR agenda through the development of policy and guidance and by engaging in the provision of a wide range of SSR support on the ground. However, despite their significant engagement in this area, there is no predictability in terms of the type of support that multilateral organizations will take on. While policy frameworks concur that international support should be well coordinated, the support provided by these organizations tends to be compartmentalized in practice. As a result, considerable time is often lost while each organization separately assesses a conflict, maps what others are doing, and agrees on a division of labour. The report presents the findings of a multi-year research project on the approaches of the United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU), and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to supporting nationally-led SSR processes. The study aims at developing an empirically-based understanding of the roles and potential comparative advantages of these organizations in SSR support, as well as avenues for enhanced cooperation. For this purpose, the study examines the following three categories related to the role of multilateral organizations in SSR support: normative frameworks, institutional capacities, and operational practices. This report was commissioned from DCAF by the Security Sector Reform Unit (SSRU) of the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO).
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Peacekeeping, Reform, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Geneva, Africa, Europe, United Nations, European Union, and African Union

48. Iraq After ISIS: The Other Half of Victory Dealing with the Civil Dimension

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States, its allies, and international organizations are just beginning to come to grips with the civil dimensions of "failed state" wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Syria, and Yemen. In each case, it is clear that the civil dimension of the war will ultimately be as important as the military one. Any meaningful form of "victory" requires far more than defeating the current extremist threat in military terms, and reaching some temporary compromise between the major factions that divide the country. The current insurgent and other security threats exist largely because of the deep divisions within the state, the past and current failures of the government to deal with such internal divisions, and the chronic failure to meet the economic, security, and social needs of much of the nation's population. In practical terms, these failures make a given host government, other contending factions, and competing outside powers as much of a threat to each nation’s stability and future as Islamic extremists and other hostile forces. Regardless of the scale of any defeat of extremists, the other internal tensions and divisions with each country also threaten to make any such “victory” a prelude to new forms of civil war, and/or an enduring failure to cope with security, stability, recovery, and development. Any real form of victory requires a different approach to stability operations and civil-military affairs. In each case, the country the U.S. is seeking to aid failed to make the necessary economic progress and reforms to meet the needs of its people – and sharply growing population – long before the fighting began. The growth of these problems over a period of decades helped trigger the sectarian, ethnic, and other divisions that made such states vulnerable to extremism and civil conflict, and made it impossible for the government to respond effectively to crises and wars.
Topic:
Security, War, Fragile/Failed State, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sundan

49. Responses to Climate-related Security Risks: Regional Organizations in Asia and Africa

Author:
Florian Krampe, Roberta Scassa, and Giovanni Mitrotta
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The transnational character of climate-related security risks often goes beyond the capacity of national governments to respond adequately. As such, it creates challenges for and increases the relevance of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). It is, therefore, not only important to understand the climate-related security risks that regions are experiencing but also to analyse how regional IGOs are developing their capacities to deal with these risks. This SIPRI Insights presents a concise analysis of four regional IGOs—two in Asia and two in Africa. The main findings show that, in various ways, climate-related security risks have found their way into the IGOs’ policy frameworks and institutional discourse. Furthermore, it was found that both the regional security context and the regions’ vulnerability to climate change affect the framing of climate-related security risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, and Risk
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Asia, West Africa, and Southeast Asia

50. Climate Change and Violent Conflict: Sparse Evidence from South Asia and South East Asia

Author:
Florian Krampe and Pernilla Nordqvist
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The impacts of climate change are increasingly viewed as global security risks, which will have far-reaching implications for both human and renewable natural systems. Most climate–conflict research has focused on East Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This SIPRI Insights explores and summarizes the findings from a systematic literature review of climate–conflict research on South Asia and South East Asia. Although these regions have been greatly affected by both climate change and conflict, there have only been a small number of rigorous academic studies that focus on the climate–conflict relationship. While this constrains the ability to draw general conclusions, there is context-specific evidence that climate change can have an effect on the causes and dynamics of violent conflict in the region when: (a) it leads to a deterioration in people’s livelihoods; (b) it influences the tactical considerations of armed groups; (c) elites use it to exploit social vulnerabilities and resources; and (d) it displaces people and increases levels of migration. In acknowledging that these mechanisms are often interlinked and more noticeable in some climatic, conflict and socio-economic contexts than in others, the need for more research in both regions is clear.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Conflict, and Risk
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia