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1. Soldiers out, civilians left behind: EU lessons from the evacuation of Kabul

Author:
Mihai Sebastian Chihaia and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
This is the introduction to a three-part Report that reviews the evacuation of Kabul, and the combined failures of NATO and the EU, amid the war in Ukraine. Even if Europe’s security debate has moved on to this bigger and more pressing challenge, the EU must heed the lessons from Kabul as it reviews its crisis management architecture and implements the Strategic Compass. The exact conditions of the Afghanistan evacuation might not be seen again for many years. Still, the EU must consider a range of other scenarios: European soldiers or citizens in danger needing evacuation from failing states or war zones, military support for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, or even short-term stability support to governments and initial entry missions. This requires a commitment to, and building of, EU rapid deployment capacities that are effectively ready to be used, associated with appropriate crisis management structures for EU decision-making. These are the questions that have interested this project, whose examination is structured in three parts: A description of the central decision moments leading up to and during the evacuation from Afghanistan. An assessment of the main factors contributing to failure in anticipation, planning and execution. Recommendations regarding the EU’s crisis management architecture and capacity in the context of the implementation of the Strategic Compass.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and European Union
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, and South Asia

2. Regime Change No More: Coming to Terms with the Greater Middle East

Author:
Henrik Larsen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Reflecting on the ‘farcical retreat from Afghanistan’ back in August 2021, Henrik Larsen discusses the need for a reckoning within US foreign policy and that of its NATO Allies. To focus on the other challenges to transatlantic security with a sense of integrity, these states must come to grips with their failed regime change agenda over the past 20 years. Afghanistan was the first of their interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2001, alongside Iraq, Libya, and Syria, that obscured the pursuit of realistic objectives and prioritised (liberal) ideals that proved to be detached from the local realities. In the wake of NATO’s new Strategic Concept for 2030 and beyond, this Strategic Update seeks to analyse the options for policy in the Middle East going forward.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

3. The American Withdrawal from Afghanistan, One Year Later

Author:
Yoram Schweitzer and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed UAV of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was hiding in Kabul, has also contributed to the organization's weakness and put it on the defensive. For the US administration and from a long-term perspective, the withdrawal was the right step, which did not harm the United States' superpower standing and even enabled greater attention and resources for coping with the main challenges currently posed by China and Russia.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4. Afghanistan offers an opportunity to repair Turkey-NATO relations

Author:
Kohei Imai
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Kohei Imai discusses the context for Turkey's planned involvement in Afghanistan even after the US-led widrawal that is currently underway. Turkey's agreement to handle security for the Kabul airport demonstrates its unique and strategic role in NATO.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, and United States of America

5. Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment

Author:
Teresa Val
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment is intended to serve as an analytical tool for policymakers and an impetus for joint U.S.-Russia action. The report provides an overview of the security situation and peace process in Afghanistan, taking into account U.S. and Russian policies, priorities and interests; surveys the militant terrorist groups in and connected to Afghanistan and explores the security interests of various regional stakeholders vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Challenges relating to border management, arms trafficking and terrorist financing in Afghanistan are also briefly addressed.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and North America

6. Iraq After ISIS: The Other Half of Victory Dealing with the Civil Dimension

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States, its allies, and international organizations are just beginning to come to grips with the civil dimensions of "failed state" wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Syria, and Yemen. In each case, it is clear that the civil dimension of the war will ultimately be as important as the military one. Any meaningful form of "victory" requires far more than defeating the current extremist threat in military terms, and reaching some temporary compromise between the major factions that divide the country. The current insurgent and other security threats exist largely because of the deep divisions within the state, the past and current failures of the government to deal with such internal divisions, and the chronic failure to meet the economic, security, and social needs of much of the nation's population. In practical terms, these failures make a given host government, other contending factions, and competing outside powers as much of a threat to each nation’s stability and future as Islamic extremists and other hostile forces. Regardless of the scale of any defeat of extremists, the other internal tensions and divisions with each country also threaten to make any such “victory” a prelude to new forms of civil war, and/or an enduring failure to cope with security, stability, recovery, and development. Any real form of victory requires a different approach to stability operations and civil-military affairs. In each case, the country the U.S. is seeking to aid failed to make the necessary economic progress and reforms to meet the needs of its people – and sharply growing population – long before the fighting began. The growth of these problems over a period of decades helped trigger the sectarian, ethnic, and other divisions that made such states vulnerable to extremism and civil conflict, and made it impossible for the government to respond effectively to crises and wars.
Topic:
Security, War, Fragile/Failed State, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sundan

7. Afghanistan’s Age of Transformation

Author:
Hamdullah Mohib
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:
The Afghanistan of today would surprise most outsiders, even those who closely follow developments in the country. We are often wrongly branded as a failing state with a struggling government whose young people are fleeing en masse for Europe and whose military has lost control of the security situation. While anecdotal evidence can always be found to lend isolated support to such claims, this sweeping characterization offers a distorted picture of reality.
Topic:
Security, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Europe

8. Second Doha Meeting on Peace and Security in Afghanistan

Author:
Paolo Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
On 23-24 January 2016, approximately 55 senior participants from a wide range of backgrounds gathered in Doha to discuss the shared goal of peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. The meeting was a non-official (“academic”) exploration of current issues and not an official negotiation. It was held in the spirit of mutual respect and non-discrimination. All participants recognized the importance of dialogue, and many had traveled very far to participate in these discussions. The hope is that the points discussed in these non-official meetings be considered by all official negotiations. All expressed appreciation to the government of Qatar for allowing this meeting to take place and for the relevant support. There is a unanimous consensus that these meetings should be continued on a regular basis. The goal of the meeting was to explore the options for a ladder or steps toward a stable peace in an independent, unified Afghanistan that would reflect the values, including Islamic values, of the people of Afghanistan, while recognizing the diversity of the Afghans. Discussions showed that there were many shared concerns. These areas of commonality create opportunities for progress. Dialogue is needed to determine the steps forward to addressing these concerns. 1. Peace is an urgent need. Decades of war that have been imposed on Afghanistan, have had a devastating impact on all Afghans. People are waiting impatiently for peace. If progress is not made soon, many fear the country may face other threats that might further complicate the process. 2. Military confrontation must end. The sovereignty of Afghanistan and the desired peace and stability will ultimately be achieved via political cooperation within a framework of legitimacy established by an appropriate constitution. Foreign troops must eventually leave Afghanistan. 3. Some participants believe that the Constitution should be amended, while others believe that the constitution should be substantially rewritten. Concrete proposals should be discussed in detail in future meetings. 4. Outside forces should not control the politics of Afghanistan. Instead, international technical, economic and cultural cooperation should be promoted. 5. The freedom for all parties to discuss the path to peace needs to be ensured from now on. The highest priority in this regard is enabling all sides to sit together. Blacklists should be eliminated and freedom of movement should be guaranteed. Visas should be facilitated for those to attend such discussions. All agreed that the Taliban should have an office and an address. 6. To foster dialogue among all parties, some participants invoked Afghanistan’s long-established tradition of the Jirga. A peace Jirga of credible, impartial Afghans could be convened, perhaps drawn from participants at this conference. Other institutions, such as Pugwash, could also provide a forum, but Afghans must lead. It was pointed out that the Doha dialogue and its follow-ups do not interfere with the current quadrilateral talks. 7. A ceasefire should be part of negotiations. 8. The protection of civilians and an end to civilian casualties are shared goals and high priorities. The recent increase in civilian casualty rates, including the heavy toll on children and women, was noted. All sides should ensure accountability and the prosecution of abuses. 9. Constitutional issues are of primary concern and need to be discussed in specific detail. Afghanistan should have an Islamic government. According to some participants, the present constitution needs to be changed, provided that it be based on Islam and enforce national sovereignty. A fundamental concern is that any constitution should ensure there will be no monopoly of power and no discrimination against people with different religions and backgrounds. 10. It was noted that peace can create a better environment for economic development, which will benefit all the people of Afghanistan. The role of civil society, freedom of expression, and education according to Islamic principles in achieving these goals was agreed. 11. The activities that are performed under the name of Daesh in Afghanistan are a foreign phenomenon and are rejected by the Afghan people. 12. All emphasize the need to uphold the rights of women, and to end violence against women. Some believe these points need to be very clearly defined, and in particular to provide guarantees regarding women’s rights. There should be increased accountability for human rights abuses. 13. Health and education issues are a priority independent of the various political positions. 14. Protection of public properties such as schools, medical facilities, and the country’s infrastructure is essential. People who commit crimes against them should be prosecuted. 15. There is the need to address the devastation to society from past decades. Drugs, high unemployment and corruption have all taken a high toll on Afghan society. Gains that have been made in terms of increased life expectancy, increased access to health and education, and improvements to the economic structures should be maintained. 16. Threats to society from remnants of war, including unexploded ordnance, must be addressed. 17. All sides share the desire for future engagement with the outside world, and welcome friendship and cooperation with the international community based on mutual respect. Support from the international community in helping to build up Afghanistan, including its roads and schools, will be welcomed by all sides. 18. Participants expressed the strong desire of continuing the series of meetings like the two recent Pugwash meetings in Doha.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

9. Moving towards Peace in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
Building on the sustained engagement of previous years, Pugwash continues to hold meetings seeking a way forward on the future of Afghanistan. In recent months, rounds of meetings have been held in Afghanistan and in Doha, with over one hundred people drawn from Afghani tribal and civic life having participated. Kabul meeting, May 2016 Under discussion were ideas for a possible peace agreement with the Taliban movement that could bring about a ceasefire (without entering into details). Pugwash has worked on a document for some points that could be considered in a possible agreement between the Taliban movement and the Government of Afghanistan. In his preface to this, Secretary-General Paolo Cotta-Ramusino notes: “After 37 years of war (and foreign invasions), the people of Afghanistan are strongly looking for the restoration of peace. Everybody is tired of war. The continuing military confrontation between the forces of the Government and of the Taliban will not give any meaningful “victory” to either side. So there is an urgent need of a compromise and an agreement in order for weapons to be finally laid down over the entire territory of Afghanistan.”
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

10. Consultations on Afghanistan

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
In the second half of 2016, Pugwash maintained its efforts to bring together different elements of Afghan society to discuss ways to build a peaceful future in the country. Consultations were held in Kabul and Jalalabad, convening many hundreds of individuals from across the political spectrum in the country. There was also a meeting held in Islamabad to discuss the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan moving forward. Following from meetings earlier in the year, there was continued focus on developing a set of substantive items for inclusion in a draft peace agreement. An earlier version of the document was expanded and clarified in consultation with all relevant parties.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

11. The Strategic Lessons Unlearned from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan: Why the ANSF Will Not Hold, and the Implications for the U.S. Army in Afghanistan

Author:
Dr. M. Chris Mason
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were lost before they began, not on the battlefields, where the United States won every tactical engagement, but at the strategic level of war. In each case, the U.S. Government attempted to create a Western-style democracy in countries which were decades at least away from being nations with the sociopolitical capital necessary to sustain democracy and, most importantly, accept it as a legitimate source of governance. The expensive indigenous armies created in the image of the U.S. Army lacked both the motivation to fight for illegitimate governments in Saigon, Baghdad, and Kabul and a cause that they believed was worth dying for, while their enemies in the field clearly did not. This book examines the Afghan National Security Forces in historical and political contexts, explains why they will fail at the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war, why they cannot and will not succeed in holding the southern half of the country, and what will happen in Afghanistan year-by-year from 2015 to 2019. Finally, it examines what the critical lessons unlearned of these conflicts are for U.S. military leaders, why these fundamental political lessons seem to remain unlearned, and how the strategic mistakes of the past can be avoided in the future.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Politics, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam

12. First Doha Meeting on Security in Afghanistan

Author:
P. Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
Pugwash held a non-official meeting on Security in Afghanistan in Doha on 2-3 May 2015. The meeting involved more than 40 participants, all of whom represented only him/herself and not any Institution or group
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

13. Afghanistan: the view from Russia

Author:
Józef Lang
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Russia's current and foreseeable policy towards Afghanistan is multi-vectored, complex and shows, at times, signs of incoherence. Russia views developments in Afghanistan as a strategic challenge and is expressing growing concern over the country's prospects for stability after the withdrawal of ISAF forces by the end of 2014. Russian decision-makers fear that a security vacuum emerging after the withdrawal could destabilise Central Asia and have a negative impact on Russia itself. At the same time, Moscow is concerned with Western military presence in the region, which it regards as interference in its neighbourhood. At tactical level, Russia also sees the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to secure its interests both regionally (consolidating its influence in Central Asia) and more widely (in terms of its relations with NATO).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia

14. Cooperative Security: NATO's Partnership Policy in a Changing World

Author:
Trine Flockhart
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The introductory chapter outlines the context within which NATO's new partnership policy has been formulated, especially the changing security and political context for partnerships in the 21st century and the anticipated effects of changing global power constellations and the prospects for change in the so- called liberal world order. The chapter introduces a conceptualization of 'the international' understood as consisting of three components (international structure, primary and secondary institutions) which are each likely to change in different ways over the coming years. The chapter briefly outlines the development of NATO's engagement with a wide variety of partners since the initial partnership structure was set up in 1991 and categorizes the different forms of partnership initiatives by dividing NATO's partnership initiatives into four different 'streams', which, although they progress in parallel, also coexist and intermingle.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

15. Conditions for a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post-2014

Author:
Khalid Aziz
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
There are doubts whether the exit of a majority of foreign forces from Afghanistan will help the return of peace to that country. Unlike in the case of the SU withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, conditions today are more dangerous, and it will be a miracle if the withdrawal is peaceful. The main reason for this is the absence of any reconciliation with the Taliban. This report identifies a minimum set of policies and measures that need to be implemented before successful multiple transitions in Afghanistan can occur. However, the overall picture is not positive, and it is not certain that peace will prevail after foreign troops leave Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

16. Afghanistan after the Drawdown

Author:
Gerald F. Hyman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In his 2013 State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama announced that by the end of 2014 "our war in Afghanistan will be over" and, a month earlier, that "by the end of next year, 2014, the transition will be complete—Afghans will have full responsibility for their security, and this war will come to a responsible end." The military transition, successful or not, is in full swing. Of course the war will not come to an end in 2014, responsible or otherwise. Even if the military drawdown goes as planned, "America's commitment to a unified and sovereign Afghanistan will endure, but the nature of our commitment will change," the president said. On the military side, our enduring commitment will focus on training, equipping, and funding the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and "some counterterrorism efforts that allow us to pursue remnants of al Qaeda and their affiliates," presumably the Taliban. As the United States draws down, so too will the remaining coalition countries of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) under North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) command.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

17. The Challenges to Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2015

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Creating political unity and reasons to be loyal to government. Creating a new structure of governance and balance between factions. Effective revenue collection, budget planning and expenditure, and limits to corruption. Fully replacing NATO/ISAF with the ANSF and "layered defense". Creating a new structure of security forces, advisors, and aid funds, to include addressing the presence of US and other nations' personnel. Acting on the Tokyo Conference: Creating effective flow and use of aid, economic reform, and limits to corruption and waste Stabilizing a market economy driven by military spending and moving towards development: Brain drain and capital flight. Coping with weather and other challenges to agricultural structure and with pressures to increase the narco - economy. Dealing with neighbors: Pakistan, I ran, Central Asian nations, India, China, and Russia.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, and North America

18. The Afghan National Police in 2015 and Beyond

Author:
Michelle Hughes
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Afghan National Police (ANP) has made remarkable progress, but the challenges are urgent, and critical capabilities remain underdeveloped. Within the framework of the minister of interior's own Strategic Vision, opportunities will arise to close some of the capacity gaps in the coming years. Helping the ANP shift from a wartime footing to a contextually appropriate community policing model, and advancing professionalism within the ministry and the operating forces, is critical to sustainability. If a national police force is going to succeed, the linkage between policing and governance must be recognized and strengthened. Managing the expanding array of ANP donors and their activities poses a unique challenge that has yet to be addressed. It is an executive challenge for the Ministry of Interior and a coordination challenge for the international community. For both, it will require a long-term approach. To facilitate effective evidence-based operations (EvBO) and strengthen the relationship between the ANP and the communities it serves, U.S.-funded activities that build capacity for justice and governance need to be more closely aligned with ANP development.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

19. A Counterterrorism Role for Pakistan's Police Stations

Author:
Robert Perito and Tariq Parvez
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Terrorism, secessionist insurgency, sectarian conflict, and ethnic turf wars have convulsed both Pakistan's major cities and tribal areas along the Afghanistan border. The escalation in mega-urban centers in particular has increased the importance of the police in controlling the endemic violence. The police station retains both its historic role as the symbol of government authority and its position as the basic law enforcement institution responsible for public order, law enforcement, and police services. Yet police stations and personnel are ill prepared and poorly equipped to meet the challenges of the country's complex, urbanized, and increasingly violent society. Pakistani police have found themselves on the front lines, and a growing number have given their lives to protect others in the struggle against terrorist and criminal groups. The need is now urgent to empower the police through a program of positive reform that would begin with modernizing police stations and reorienting and retraining their personnel. An effective program for police station reform would begin with assigning primacy to the police for controlling terrorism. It would include developing new organizational struc¬tures, positions, and standard operating procedures to ensure that local police understand their enhanced role and mission. It would also include improving police-public relations and networking police stations into a national information-sharing network with anti-terrorist agencies. Creating high-profile specialized units appears to offer a quick fix to a complex and increas¬ingly pervasive problem. The real solution, however, lies in empowering Pakistan's police stations to protect their communities from criminal and extremist violence through modern¬ization and reform.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

20. Stronger Together: Women Parliamentarians in Joint Action for Peace and Security

Author:
Agnes Venema
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The United Nations Security Council passed resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) in 2000, which is considered to be the back - bone of efforts to include women in peace negotiations, post-conflict reconstruction and disarmament, demobilization and re - integration initiatives around the world. Ten years after this landmark resolution was passed, the East West Institute's Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention started its work on the Women, Peace and Security agenda upon the request of women members of parliament from Afghanistan and Pakistan, who felt marginalized, sidelined and excluded from their national security processes as well as from international dialogues on this issue.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United Nations

21. Security Transition in Afghanistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

22. The "Home Game" Counting Violent Extremism within NATO

Author:
Jacqueline Page
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
As the complex global security environment faced by NATO members continues to evolve in the coming years, terrorism – waged by actors both in and outside of their borders – will remain a vexing challenge. For over a decade, NATO's counterterrorism strategy has been built on taking the fight abroad. Member nations have been intimately involved in this effort as contributors to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, to the Multi-National Force in Iraq and in a variety of smaller missions around the globe. In recent times, however, there has been growing attention to the threat posed by “homegrown” terrorism and foreign fighters returning from Syria and elsewhere to their home countries throughout the Euro-Atlantic area.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

23. Soldiers of Misfortune?

Author:
Thomas R. Mockaiti
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Private contractors have become an essential but highly problematic element in the U.S. military's total force structure. The Army in particular relies heavily on contractors to perform duties that free up Soldiers for combat roles. The vast majority of these civilian employees provide logistical and technical support. They build facilities, do laundry, and staff dining halls on U.S. bases at home and abroad. While some of these contractors have been involved in issues of waste, fraud, and abuse, these issues do not have a significant Effect on the conduct of contingency operations, especially counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arabia

24. A Key Update: Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition: Sharply Contradictory Data on Levels of Violence

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Michael Peacock, and Aaron Lin
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Data on Afghan Surge show had little or no lasting impact. NATO/ISAF stopped all meaningful reporting on security trends after EIA fiasco. No maps or assessments of insurgent control or influence versus limited dataf 10 worst areas of tactical encounters. No maps or assessments of areas of effective government control and support and areas where government is not present or lacks support. Shift from direct clashes to high profile and political attacks makes it impossible to assess situation using past metrics, but HPAs sharply up. UN casualty data and State Department START data on terrorism highly negative. No reason for insurgents to engage NATO/ISAF or ANSF on unfavorable terms before combat NATO/ISAF forces are gone.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

25. The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Azeem Ibrahim
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other Salafist-Jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas it controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq based Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIS]) and indicates there are limits to its ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

26. The Baluch insurgency: linking Iran to Pakistan

Author:
Zia Ur Rehman
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Sistan and Baluchistan Province of Iran has long been associated with instability and armed conflict. The two million largely Sunni Muslim Baluch living in the province have suffered sustained racist persecution and discrimination in predominantly Shia and Persian-speaking Iran. Analysts claim that lack of development and cultural and religious repression in Sistan and Baluchistan have encouraged popular support for the insurgency among the Baluch community. Iran claims that the main bases of the two main Baluch insurgents groups, Jundullah and Jaish-ul Adl, are in Pakistan's Baluchistan Province, which shares a 1,165-kilometre border with Iran. Iranian forces are increasingly carrying out cross-border attacks against these groups, straining relations between Iran and Pakistan and possibly fuelling sectarian violence in both countries. Pakistan is battling its own Baluch separatist insurgency. It is feared that the mistreatment of the Baluch community on both sides of the border could lead to an alliance between religiously motivated anti-Iranian Sunni militant groups and the various secular Pakistani Baluch separatist groups.Iranian Baluch militants groups are not only causing an increasing internal security crisis in Iran, but are also threatening to become the key to the survival of the Taliban on the Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Topic:
Security, Insurgency, Bilateral Relations, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran

27. Iran's Afghan Shiite Fighters in Syria

Author:
Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Afghan Shiite militants have been fighting on the Assad regime's side for some time, and the scope and strategic purpose of Iran's involvement is becoming increasingly clear.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, and Middle East

28. Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Threat Assessment

Author:
Jacqueline McLaren Miller
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
More than a decade after the United States and allied troops began military operations in Afghanistan, the country remains a major conflict zone. Afghanistan's continuing instability constitutes the largest security issue in the region. The country's role as the center of global opiate production contributes heavily to this instability. The grave social, economic, political, and security implications of the trafficking of the Afghan opiates extend beyond the regions of South, Southwest, and Central Asia. The opium economy in Afghanistan has become deeply entrenched and shows no signs of declining. Inside Afghanistan, narcotrafficking contributes to insecurity and feeds corruption, warlords, and insurgents. All this vastly complicates the prospects of the Afghan central government consolidating its power and effectively governing. Compounding these issues is the scheduled withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014 and the ongoing drawdown of U.S. troops.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, War on Drugs, Counterinsurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

29. Afghanistan – Order of Battle

Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
This document describes the composition and placement of U.S. and other Western combat and advisory forces in Afghanistan down to battalion level. It includes the following categories of units: maneuver (i.e. infantry, armor, and cavalry) units, which in most cases are responsible for advising or partnering with Afghan troops in particular districts or provinces; artillery units; aviation units, both rotary and fixed-wing; military police units; most types of engineer and explosive ordnance disposal units; and "white" special operations forces. It does not include "black" special operations units or other units such as logistical, transportation, medical, and intelligence units or Provincial Reconstruction Teams.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

30. On the eve: Afghan views of the future as foreign forces withdraw

Author:
Jonathan Steele
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
With two years left before the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan completes its mission, Afghans are in a state of confusion and uncertainty about their individual prospects and their country's fate. Interviews with a wide range of government and opposition politicians, civil society activists and ordinary Afghans reveal disappointment with the results of 11 years of foreign involvement, and anxiety that the coming years will bring economic hardship and greater political violence and insecurity
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

31. Trends in Militancy across South Asia

Author:
Thomas M. Sanderson, Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Zachary I. Fellman, and Rob Wise
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The bulk of international counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and related efforts over the last decade have focused on targeting a select few extremist organizations such as al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Yet looming security transitions, international fiscal strictures, demographic trends, religious and ethnic tensions, popular dissatisfaction, and weak governance are likely having significant and worrying effects on a wide array of militant actors around the world. A narrow focus on those groups perceived to be the most immediate threats has, at times, come at the cost of a broader understanding of militancy and how it may manifest in a given region.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Taliban

32. Stabilizing Afghanistan: Proposals for Improving Security, Governance, and Aid/Economic Development

Author:
Tobias Ellwood
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Afghanistan's future remains bleak. After a painful decade, all must now admit that Plan A (as outlined in the Bonn Accord1 and confirmed in the Afghan constitution has yet to create the necessary foundations for stability. Much of the international community privately acknowledges the gloomy outlook and now seeks a decent interval of stability after 2014 to distance itself from the responsibility for what might happen next as global attention turns to the jihadist threat in the Sahel region of Africa.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Africa

33. Send the Reserve! New Ways to Support NATO through Reserve Forces

Author:
Guillaume Lasconjarias
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
In a January 2012 publication, the NATO Military Committee revised its Framework Policy on Reserves: "As many nations increasingly make use of professional soldiers in their Regular Forces, whilst simultaneously reducing them in size, the need for Reservists will be even greater." This reflects a position shared across NATO, where most member states recognize the need for volunteer-part-time Defense Forces able to deliver significant capability when needed. In a challenging security environment, whilst the Regular Forces are largely reduced and professionalized Reserve Forces act as a pool to support, reinforce, enhance and improve their regular counterparts. They provide a surge of personnel that can be drawn upon.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Iraq

34. Contracting the Commanders: Transition and the Political Economy of Afghanistan's Private Security Industry

Author:
Matthieu Aikins
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As Afghanistan approaches the 2014 deadline for assuming responsibility for its own security, and the international community becomes preoccupied with the challenge of reducing its vast entanglement with the country's politics, economy, and society, the critical question is whether NATO's transition will succeed in stabilizing Afghanistan—or whether it will result in further destabilization, as seen following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, which eventually led to the collapse of the central government, large-scale civil war, and the country's development into a haven for international terrorism.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Crime, Islam, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

35. Strategic Support to Security Sector Reform in Afghanistan, 2001-2010

Author:
Christian Dennys and Tom Hamilton-Baillie
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper argues that security sector reform (SSR) in Afghanistan suffers from a lack of strategic direction and political agreement. It focuses on disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), and police and army reform in two case studies — Baghlan province and Nahr-I Sarraj district in Helmand province — in order to demonstrate the pitfalls of an SSR process driven by operational activities in the absence of an overarching strategy. The paper then examines the role of the Office of the National Security Council (ONSC) within the Afghan government in order to account for the lack of strategic direction in SSR before providing recommendations on how to avoid such problems in the future.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

36. Afghanistan's Civil Order Police

Author:
Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In 2006, a day of deadly riots in Kabul dramatized the need for an Afghan constabulary force capable of controlling outbreaks of urban violence. In response, the U.S. military and Afghan authorities created an elite gendarmerie, the Afghanistan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP). Although ANCOP was conceived of as a riot control force, it was assigned to the Focused District Development Program to replace district-level Afghan Uniformed Police who were away for training. The high demand and constant transfers required by this duty resulted in rates of attrition among ANCOP units of 75 to 80 percent. In 2010, ANCOP's superior training, firepower, and mobility were recognized in its assignment, along with a “surge” of U.S. military forces, to reverse the Taliban's hold on key areas in southern Afghanistan. In heavy fighting in Marja, Helmand province, ANCOP was demonstrably unprepared to serve as a counterinsurgency force, particularly in areas that had not been cleared by coalition and Afghan military forces. Subsequent improvements in training and partnering with U.S. forces improved ANCOP's performance in Kandahar, where ANCOP was used to hold areas that had been cleared by the military. By 2011, ANCOP had firmly established its place as an elite rapid reaction and counterinsurgency force with a positive reputation among coalition troops and Afghan citizens.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

37. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Sequestration, and the Growing Strategy-Reality Gap

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP -- in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- versus 6 - 7% during the Cold War.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

38. Afghanistan from 2012-2014: Is A Successful Transition Possible?

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The key issue in evaluating the prospects for a successful Transition in Afghanistan is not whether a successful transition in Afghanistan is possible, it is rather whether some form of meaningful transition is probable — a very different thing. The answer is a modest form of strategic success is still possible, but that it is too soon to know whether it is probable and there are many areas where the current level of planning, analysis, and action combined to sharply reduce the chances for success.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, War, Counterinsurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

39. The Afghan War: Creating the Economic Conditions and Civil-Military Aid Efforts Needed For Transition

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Sean T. Mann, and Bryan Gold
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In a little over two years the US and its allies plan to hand over security and other responsibilities to the Afghan government as part of a process labeled “Transition.” Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. The political, governance, and economic dimensions of this Transition, however, will be as important as any developments in the fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

40. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Deficits, Cost-Escalation, and Sequestration

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert Shelala II
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP – in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Asia

41. Implementing the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The Women, Peace, and Security agenda of the United Nations Security Council is considered one of the landmark achievements in its thematic work. In its resolution 1325 (2000), the Council addressed for the first time the impact of armed conflict on women and recognized the under-valued and under-utilized contributions women make to conflict prevention and peace processes. The thematic work initiated by resolution 1325 has been reinforced and expanded by follow-up resolutions 1820 (2008), 1888 (2009), 1889 (2009), and 1960 (2010), which together form the Women, Peace and Security agenda of the Council. At the same time, integrating this agenda into the country-specific work of the Council has proven very challenging, despite the Security Council's continued political recognition that gender is indeed central to lasting and sustainable peace and security. The implementation of the WPS agenda on the ground is thus lagging far behind the ambitious conceptual framework that the Council has created over the past decade.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United Nations

42. World Grows More Peaceful - Except for the Middle East

Author:
Dana McKelvey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index (GPI) reported an increase in world peace after two consecutive years of decline. The change was driven by slight reductions worldwide in terrorist acts, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, military sophistication, and aggregate number of heavy weapons per capita. As the sixth edition of the study, the 2012 GPI ranked the peacefulness of 158 nations, marking an increase from the 2011 ranking of 153 nations. As Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University remarked at the GPI’s release, the study has great potential for “draw[ing] correlations” and encouraging collaboration between think tanks, universities, policymakers, and civil society in their study of global peace. The IEP will distribute the study to the World Bank, the OECD, the U.S. Congress, American University, and Club de Madrid, among other leading organizations. Professor Slaughter explained that researchers defined peacefulness not only as the absence of war or violence, but also as the absence of fear. The study addresses three major themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarization. The IEP researched these themes in the context of both “positive peace,” a “culture of peace” that values human rights, gender equality, democratic participation, and open communication, as well as “negative peace,” or the absence of violent conflict. In its study of “negative peace,” the GPI used twenty-three indicators, spanning topics from deaths in organized conflict, to political instability, to perceived criminality. The IEP’s Positive Peace Index (PPI), which addresses 108 countries, used twenty-one indicators categorized into eight “pillars of peace” that researchers identified as key to a peaceful society. The IEP emphasized the contrast between the PPI and other studies’ extensive focus on conflict and civil unrest. According to the IEP’s executive summary, the PPI becomes especially important during state-building, as in the recent cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. “The pillars of peace,” the summary states, “provide a foundation for thinking about how to establish the optimal environment for human wellbeing and potential to flourish.”
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

43. Humanitarian soldiers, colonialised Others and invisible enemies: Visual strategic communication narratives of the Afghan war

Author:
Noora Kotilainen
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper examines the current visual strategic communications endeavour of the Afghanistan International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation, which is designed to influence public opinion within the participant coalition nations. The aim is to track down what kind of means, messages and narratives the Western strategic communications machinery topically uses, in order to more effectively convince and address the domestic publics of the desirability of the operation. I concentrate on analysing the communication and image building endeavour taking place in Internet and new media surroundings, and namely bite into visual images constructed for the communication. For material, I use the ISAF media Flickr photostream, which is a large and frequently updated set of online photographs presented by ISAF.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

44. Afghanistan in Transition: The Security Context Post-Bin Laden

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In 2011 NATO initiated the Inteqal process, i.e. the "transition" of security responsibilities from ISAF to the Afghan state and its security forces. The main pillars of this process are the build up of the Afghan Army and Police and the improvement of Afghanistan's governance system at both national and local level. Progress has been made in this respect, although challenges remain. NATO aims to complete the transition by 2014, while reducing its military presence in the country, but a substantial Allied footprint is likely to remain in Afghanistan beyond that date. The death of Bin Laden has brought about little changes to the situation on the ground, while it may have a significant impact on the US's attitude towards peace talks with the Taliban and thus influence the transition timeline and nature.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

45. Afghanistan Win or Lose: Transition and the Coming Resource Crisis

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US confronts a wide range of challenges if it is to win the Afghan conflict in any meaningful sense, and leave a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan: Decide on US strategic objectives in conducting and terminating the war. These objectives not only include the defeat of Al Qaeda, but deciding on what kind of transition the US wishes to make in Afghanistan, what goals the US can achieve in creating a stable Afghanistan, US goals in Pakistan, and the broader strategic goals the US will seek in Central and South Asia. Defeat the insurgency not only in tactical terms, but also by eliminating its control and influence over the population and ability exploit sanctuaries in Pakistan and win a war of political transition. Create a more effective and integrated, operational civil and civil-military transition effort by NATO/ISAF, UN, member countries, NGO, and international community efforts through 2014 and for 5-10 years after the withdrawal of combat forces. Build up a much larger, and more effective, mix of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Give the Afghan government the necessary capacity and legitimacy (and lasting stability) at the national, regional/provincial, district, and local levels by 2014. Dealing with Pakistan in reducing the Taliban-Haqqani network in the NWFP and Baluchistan, and dealing with the broader risk Pakistan will become a failed nuclear weapons state. Shape a balance of post-transition relations with India, Iran, "Stans," Russia, and China that will help sustain posttransition stability. Make effective trade-offs in terms of resources relative to the priorities set by other US domestic and security interests.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

46. u.s. and iranian strategic competition: Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan

Author:
Erin Fitzgerald and Varun Vira
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US has many hard decisions to make in shaping its policies toward Central and South Asia – driven primarily by the war in Afghanistan, the growing instability in Pakistan, and whether the US should actively pursue strategic interest in Central Asia in the face of Russian and Chinese pressures and advantages, than by strategic competition with Iran.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

47. Lessons from Embedded Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq

Author:
John K. Naland
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Embedded provincial reconstruction teams (ePRTs) were small State Department- led units inserted into U.S. combat brigades in Iraq from 2007 to 2010 to support military counterinsurgency efforts at the local level. During major combat operations in 2007 and into 2008, ePRTs provided important support to military counterinsurgency efforts. As U.S. combat units wound down these efforts and withdrew from towns and cities, ePRTs did useful-but harder to quantify-work in mentoring local officials. Combat brigades and ePRTs generally worked well together. However, some units were unsure of how best to employ civilians. The military and civilians also sometimes had differing views on issues of short-term versus long-term goals. Despite problems, ePRT veterans believe that they had a positive effect in both supporting military counterinsurgency efforts and helping local Iraqi officials prepare for self-reliance. Interviewees identified a variety of operational problems that detracted from ePRT mission accomplishment. The Iraq ePRTs are now history, but as the United States continues to use civil-military teams in Afghanistan, these observed lessons need to be learned and acted upon.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Arabia

48. The Politics of Dispute Resolution and Continued Instability in Afghanistan

Author:
Noah Coburn
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
There are numerous sources of local conflict in Afghanistan today, but the majority cluster around a few issues: disputes over land and water rights; family disputes, particularly inheritance; and disputes over control of local positions of authority. Lack of capacity or resources in the formal justice systems has been blamed for the lack of effective dispute resolution. But the fact that disputes were resolved more regularly in Afghanistan before the war years, when the formal justice system had even fewer resources, indicates that other causes are involved. Lack of political and personal security of dispute-resolution practitioners and the increased power of local commanders, whose authority is not community-based, have undermined the traditional dispute-resolution system. At the same time, corruption and inefficiency have delegitimized the formal justice system in the eyes of many disputants. Afghans and foreign donors alike note that Afghanistan has both state (court-based) and nonstate (based upon a combination of customary and religious law) justice sectors, and it is often assumed that these systems solely compete with each other for dispute-resolution authority. USIP research shows that, contrary to assumptions, successfully resolved disputes rely on a combination of formal and informal actors. Indeed, it is common for disputes to move between formal and informal venues and to be considered by a series of local elders and, more rarely, government officials.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

49. Watching While the Frog Boils: Strategic Folly in the Afghan Security Sector

Author:
Christian Dennys
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
International approaches to the Afghan security sector over the last nine years have exhibited the tendencies of security sector reform (SSR), counterinsurgency (COIN) and stabilization, and exposed the inherent tensions between them. This paper argues that while an SSR, COIN or stabilization approach may have been appropriate at the beginning of the post-Taliban period or currently, actual practice has been to attempt all three simultaneously. This leads to confusion, and the combined approaches tend to undermine one another as they attempt to address the security issues facing Afghanistan. The paper concludes that, ultimately, the lack of strategic direction and focus in the international intervention — as demonstrated by the evolution of United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions, the plethora of international missions and interventions in the security sector, and the realities on the ground — has served both Afghanistan and its international partners poorly
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

50. A Review of the 2001 Bonn Conference and Application to the Road Ahead in Afghanistan

Author:
Mark Fields and Ramsha Ahmed
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Ten years ago in Bonn, Germany, the United Nations Envoy to Afghanistan, Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, and U.S. Envoy to the Afghan Opposition, Ambassador James Dobbins, led a diverse group of international diplomats and warriors to consensus and charted the political course for Afghanistan well into the decade. The process that led to the Bonn Agreement (Bonn 2001, or Bonn I) reflects the best of U.S. and United Nations statesmanship and was the result of the effective application of military and diplomatic power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, United Nations, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Germany

51. Police Corruption: What Past Scandals Teach about Current Challenges

Author:
Robert Perito and David Bayley
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Police corruption is an international problem. Historically, police misconduct has been a factor in the development of police institutions worldwide, but it is a particular problem in counterinsurgency and peacekeeping operations, such as the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization police training program in Afghanistan. There, police abuse and corruption appear endemic and have caused some Afghans to seek the assistance of the Taliban against their own government. The most reliable and extensive knowledge about police corruption in the world's Englishspeaking countries is found in the reports of specially appointed blue-ribbon commissions, independent of government, created for the sole purpose of conducting investigations of police corruption. To reduce police corruption, the commissions recommend creating external oversight over the police with a special focus on integrity, improving recruitment and training, leadership from supervisors of all ranks about integrity, holding all commanders responsible for the misbehavior of subordinates, and changing the organization's culture to tolerate misbehavior less. The remedies proposed by the commissions, however, rely on a set of contextual conditions not commonly found in countries emerging from conflict or facing serious threats to their security. This report suggests triage and bootstraps as strategies for reducing police corruption in countries with security threats. Triage involves targeting assistance in countries where there are solid prospects for tipping police practice in the desired direction. Bootstraps involves using reform within the police itself as a lever to encourage systemic social and political reform in countries in crisis or emerging from conflict.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Crime, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

52. The Privatisation of Security in Failing States: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:
Željko Branović
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Failing and collapsed states are a common marketplace for the private military industry, which has grown significantly in size and scope over the last decade. Today the private sector supplies a broad spectrum of military and security services to governments facing a lack of territorial control and law enforcement capacities. These services range from combat support to training for military and policing units, logistics and the protection of individuals and property. Yet a quantifiable picture of the extent to which these private security services are being used by failing or weak governments and the implications this use might have for the security environment has not been properly painted.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and United Nations

53. Building a new military? The NATO Training Mission-Iraq

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The military is the cradle of the state - simply because security precedes any social or economic development. In the 1990s, this consideration led to the advent of Security Sector Reform, essentially the consequence of the perception that building up strong and viable security institutions under civilian control is a precondition of state consolidation. The multiple defense reforms NATO assisted in many former Warsaw Pact member states, and the NATO Training Cooperation Initiative launched in 2006, are part of the consequent logic of military development aid, which is not entirely altruistic. Security is an intertwined construct, and the Alliance relies on stability and security in other states in order to ensure its own. In this context, NATO's Training Mission-Iraq (NTM-I) is just a logical step - although surprising to some, given that it was Iraq that caused the Alliance a "near-death experience." Four years later it was followed by a sister mission in Afghanistan, indicating a trend in security force assistance that is likely to grow.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

54. Russia's strategies in Afghanistan and their consequences for NATO

Author:
Marlène Laruelle
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
In July 2011, the first U.S. troops started to leave Afghanistan - a powerful symbol of Western determination to let the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) gradually take over responsibility for national security. This is also an important element in the strategy of Hamid Karzai's government, which seeks to appear not as a pawn of Washington but as an autonomous actor in negotiations with the so-called moderate Taliban. With withdrawal to be completed by 2014, the regionalization of the "Afghan issue" will grow. The regional powers will gain autonomy in their relationship with Kabul, and will implement strategies of both competition and collaboration. In the context of this regionalization, Russia occupies an important position.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and United States

55. Intervention hangovers in stabilisation operations: Case studies from Afghanistan and Iraq

Author:
Dr. Ann M Fitz-Gerald and Christian Dennys
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper argues that the emergence of stabilisation as a concept out of peace-building, state- building and counter-insurgency theories has carried with it some of the key weaknesses of international intervention, in particular the idea that imposing western liberal systems on non- western societies will contribute towards stability. With reference to two case studies, the Wheat Seed project in Afghanistan and a gas cylinder distribution project in Iraq, the paper argues that stabilisation activities do not engage fully with the underlying premise that stabilisation must support and engender local political legitimacy, in part because of the conceptual baggage that stabilisation has adopted from other areas. The paper concludes by arguing that greater use should be made of the knowledge and histories of non-western state formation, characterized as being non- Weberian, as a counter to the overuse by interveners of the desire to support rational Weberian state structures in other countries.
Topic:
Security, Development, Foreign Aid, and Neoimperialism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Arabia

56. Women in Afghanistan: A Human Rights Tragedy Ten Years after 9/11

Author:
Hayat Alvi
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
Ten years after the September 11th attacks in the United States and the military campaign in Afghanistan, there is some good news, but unfortunately still much bad news pertaining to women in Afghanistan. The patterns of politics, security/military operations, religious fanaticism, heavily patriarchal structures and practices, and ongoing insurgent violence continue to threaten girls and women in the most insidious ways. Although women's rights and freedoms in Afghanistan have finally entered the radar screen of the international community's consciousness, they still linger in the margins in many respects.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Human Welfare, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

57. Toward a Sovereign Afghanistan

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) convened the conference, “Toward a Sovereign Afghanistan,” October 20-22, 2011, in the Cecilienhof Castle of Potsdam near Berlin, Germany. More than 40 leading experts from Afghanistan and 14 other states participated in the private, off-the-record conference. The colloquium was opened by Ambassador Staffan de Mistura, Special Envoy for Afghanistan of the UN Secretary-General; Dr. Rangin Spanta, Afghanistan National Security Advisor; Ambassador Michael Steiner, Special Representative of the Germany for Afghanistan and Pakistan; and Ambassador Vygaudas Ušackas, Special Representative and Head of Mission of the EU's Mission for Afghanistan. Wolfgang Danspeckgruber, LISD Director, chaired the colloquium.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil Society, Economics, Islam, Peace Studies, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Germany

58. CTTA: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Year End Report 2010

Author:
Rohan Gunaratna Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Transnational terrorism is likely to remain the most profound threat in 2011. Politically motivated groups that seek to legitimize their thinking and actions by using, misusing and misinterpreting the religious text , will continue to dominate the global threat landscape. While homegrown and group terrorism are likely to remain at the forefront, homegrown terrorism in particular will continue to be a formidable challenge for security. There will also be more pressure for Western military troops in Afghanistan, both in combat and support roles, to return home due to the decreasing public support for the war and domestic political considerations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Terrorism, International Security, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

59. Whose Aid Is It Anyway? Politicizing aid in conflicts and crises

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Effective aid helps save lives, protect rights and build livelihoods. Yet in conflicts and politically unstable settings from Afghanistan to Yemen, lifesaving humanitarian assistance and longer-term efforts to reduce poverty are being damaged where aid is used primarily to pursue donors' own narrow political and security objectives. This is not only undermining humanitarian principles and donors' development commitments; it impacts on the lives of some of the most vulnerable people affected by conflicts and natural disasters.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Yemen

60. Missed Opportunities: The Impact of DDR on SSR in Afghanistan

Author:
Caroline Hartzell
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan's disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) program sought to enable the Afghan government to establish a monopoly on the use of force by helping break the linkages between former Afghan Military Forces (AMF) commanders and their troops, helping former combatants make the transition from military to civilian life, and collecting weapons in the possession of the AMF. Although Afghanistan presented an extremely challenging environment in which to implement DDR, a window for carrying out this task arguably existed for a couple of years after the signing of the Bonn Agreement. During this time the security situation throughout much of the country was relatively calm, the population generally supported efforts to establish peace, and the politicization of the security sector that began in the wake of the agreement was not yet entrenched. Unfortunately, the failure to include DDR in the Bonn settlement was the first in a series of missteps that limited the program's contributions to security sector reform. Delays in the design and initiation of a DDR process, combined with the international community's initial decision to leave only a light footprint in Afghanistan, left armed Afghan actors to contend with the type of security dilemma that has proven detrimental to other efforts to stabilize the peace. Competing militias' efforts to provide security as well as some groups' attempts to gain control of the security sector apparatus generated mistrust among the militias and reinforced the power of commanders and warlords. This situation was exacerbated by the coalition's reluctance to check the growing factionalization of the DDR process and a civilian-implemented DDR program that lacked the coercive capacity to contend with spoilers. DDR provisions should be part of a peace settlement. If armed groups prove unwilling to agree to such measures, their commitment to the settlement and to a durable peace must be considered suspect. Once such settlement measures have been agreed to, third-party actors—international or regional peacekeeping forces, third-party armies—should commit to providing security before, during, and after DDR; this sends a message to civilians and combatants that DDR will not endanger their safety.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

61. Refugees and IDPs after Conflict: Why They Do Not Go Home

Author:
Patricia Weiss Fagan
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Programs to return refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes after conflict, implemented by national authorities with international support, frequently leave far too many without viable futures. The measures are often inadequate for three reasons: a widely shared but flawed assumption that the need to create a future for returnees is satisfied by restoring them to their prior lives; a lack of long-term engagement by implementing authorities; and a focus on rural reintegration when many refugees and IDPs are returning to urban areas. These arguments are illustrated in four country cases—Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Burundi. In each case, the places that refugees and IDPs were forced to flee have been greatly reshaped. They often lack security and economic opportunities; governance is weak and services are inadequate. Returnees have made choices about their futures in large part on the basis of these factors. While reclaiming land or receiving compensation for losses is important, the challenge for many returnees is to settle where they can maintain sustainable livelihoods; find peaceful living conditions; have access to health care, education, and employment opportunities; and enjoy full rights of citizenship. This may mean a move from rural to urban areas and a change in the source of income generation that has to be accounted for in the design of reintegration programs. Returning refugees and IDPs should be assisted for a sufficient amount of time to determine which location and livelihood will suit them best. For international organizations, this may involve greater creativity and flexibility in supporting returnees in urban settings. To accommodate inflows of returnees and their general mobility, national and local governments should develop urban planning strategies to manage the growth of their cities, coupled with regional development plans in rural areas that may involve investment in commercial agriculture. Linking rural and urban areas by strengthening government institutions can also provide returnees with more livelihood options and promote development.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Refugee Issues, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, Middle East, Balkans, and Burundi

62. Running out of Options: Tracing Rural Afghan Livelihoods

Author:
Paula Kantor and Adam Pain
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
In 2002-03, AREU documented the livelihoods of dozens of households across rural Afghanistan. When research teams revisited a selection of these families in 2008-09, they found the majority worse off than before, with many struggling to meet even the most basic of day to day needs. This paper documents the converging set of pressures that have set so many families on the path towards poverty in recent years. Faced with drought, rising food prices and a ban on lucrative opium poppy farming, many households diversified into nonfarm labour as a means to cope. In some cases, this was successful; households able to tap into urban employment opportunities or political connections improved and occasionally flourished. However, for the majority diversification was not enough. The disappearance of opium farming as an engine of growth coupled with multi-year drought left many local economies unable to absorb the flood of new workers. As wages fell and jobs grew scarce, many families grew increasingly dependent on charity, credit and food aid to make ends meet. In this precarious position, shocks such as spending on ill-health or major social events were enough to put many livelihoods in jeopardy. As costs mounted, households were forced to resort to increasingly damaging strategies to stay afloat, selling off land and marrying their daughters early to secure bride prices. In the light of these problems, the paper highlights a need for policymakers and programmers in the agriculture and rural development (ARD) sector to balance their current focus on markets with greater efforts to stabilise vulnerable livelihoods. Interventions must find ways to protect the basic livelihood security of the most poor, prevent damaging loss in the face of downturns and promote rural Afghans’ capacities to take advantage of new opportunities, all while recognising that social factors such as gender norms or local power structures pose substantial obstacles to improvement. In many cases, helping people guard against damaging losses may need to be coupled with ARD efforts that look beyond local bounds, expanding labour opportunities in urban centres both at home and abroad.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Poverty, and Rural
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

63. Obama's New Af-Pak Strategy: Can "Clear, Hold, Build, Transfer" Work?

Author:
C. Christine Fair
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On entering the White House, US President Barack Obama aimed to put the war in Afghanistan at the forefront of his security agenda following eight years of neglect by a Bush administration preoccupied by the war in Iraq. The Obama administration spent nearly On entering the White House, US President Barack Obama aimed to put the war in Afghanistan at the forefront of his security agenda following eight years of neglect by a Bush administration preoccupied by the war in Iraq. The Obama administration spent nearly a year reviewing the situation in Afghanistan and vetting war options amid protracted interagency deliberation and partisan debate. By the end of 2009, President Obama affirmed his administration's commitment to degrading the capabilities of terrorist groups ensconced in Afghanistan and Pakistan and announced that, by the end of July 2011, the US would begin a conditions-based transfer of responsibility to the Afghan government and security forces, enabling the United States to diminish its kinetic military activities in favour of a more "typical" presence with Washington continuing to providing development and economic assistance, plus training for military and civilian personnel. Thus the counter-insurgency mantra of "clear, hold and build" became, under Obama, "clear, hold, build and transfer." This paper evaluates the viability of the "clear, hold, build and transfer" approach in light of the structural challenges to each element and the pressure to deliver results in a short time-frame amid difficult security conditions.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

64. Afghanistan: A View from Moscow

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Alexey Malashenko
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Afghanistan problem has many angles, but a view from the North—the perspective of Russia—has been missing from many previous analyses. The ten-year-long Soviet military involvement in the country is too often dismissed as having little in common with NATO's current mission. The Soviet Union, after all, has failed, and NATO still plans to succeed. For the Russians themselves, the “Afghan syndrome” continues to be very powerful and warns against any new engagement in Afghanistan. While many in Russia still see developments in Afghanistan in a historical context, however, Russia is entwined in a complex web of relationships with the Afghan parties, neighboring states, and the West. Moscow is an important part of the Afghan equation.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Asia, Soviet Union, and Moscow

65. Pakistan in the Danger Zone

Author:
Shuja Nawaz
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Afghanistan war may be lost on the battlefields of Pakistan, where a vicious conflict is now being fought by Pakistan against a homegrown insurgency spawned by the war across its Western frontier. A year after we at the Atlantic Council raised a warning flag about the effects of failure in Afghanistan and the need to meet Pakistan's urgent needs in its existential war against militancy and terrorism, the situation in Pakistan remains on edge. Domestic politics remain in a constant state of flux, with some progress toward a democratic polity overshadowed by periodic upheavals and conflicts between the ruling coalition and the emerging judiciary. The military's actions against the Taliban insurgency appear to have succeeded in dislocating the homegrown terrorists but the necessary civilian effort to complement military action is still not evident. The government does not appear to have the will or the ability to muster support for longer-term reform or sustainable policies. The economy appears to have stabilized somewhat; but security, governance, and energy shortages are major challenges that require strong, consistent, incorruptible leadership rather than political brinkmanship, cronyism, and corruption that remains endemic nationwide. Recent constitutional developments offer a glimmer of hope that may allow the civilian government to restore confidence in its ability to deliver both on the domestic and external front. But the government needs to stop relying on external actors to bail it out and take matters into its own hands.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Government, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Southeast Asia

66. Informal Dispute Resolution in Afghanistan

Author:
John Dempsey and Noah Coburn
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Faced with difficulties establishing legitimate, effective rule of law and the predominance of informal or traditional justice mechanisms in Afghanistan, the Afghan government and the international community have increasingly focused on engaging informal justice systems to resolve both civil and criminal disputes. While informal systems vary across the country, they are generally based upon restorative justice and the preservation of communal harmony. They currently resolve the vast majority of legal disputes and other conflicts in the country, particularly in rural areas. Engagement with informal systems and linking such systems to state institutions present some of the more effective opportunities for resolving conflicts and increasing access to justice for all Afghans because they are familiar, locally available, and involve relatively low costs. Such engagement, however, also faces significant logistical, cultural, political, and legal challenges. When engaging informal systems and/or implementing programs to link them to the state, it is important to have sound understanding of local power dynamics and how local dispute resolution systems function. The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has been working on informal justice in Afghanistan since 2002 and has run pilot projects in six districts that test ways of designing or strengthening links between the state and informal systems to increase access to justice. Some of the best practices identified from the pilot projects include the importance of regular and substantive communication between informal and state justice actors, the promotion of the use of written records of decisions by informal systems, and the monitoring of decisions to ensure applicable Afghan laws and international human rights standards are upheld.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

67. Private Contractors in Conflict Zones: The Good, the Bad, and the Strategic Impact

Author:
T.X. Hammes
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In Iraq and Afghanistan, the use of contractors reached a level unprecedented in U.S. military operations. As of March 31, 2010, the United States deployed 175,000 troops and 207,000 contractors in the war zones. Contractors represented 50 percent of the Department of Defense (DOD) workforce in Iraq and 59 percent in Afghanistan. These numbers include both armed and unarmed contractors. Thus, for the purposes of this paper, the term contractor includes both armed and unarmed personnel unless otherwise specified. The presence of contractors on the battlefield is obviously not a new phenomenon but has dramatically increased from the ratio of 1 contractor to 55 military personnel in Vietnam to 1:1 in the Iraq and 1.43:1 in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Privatization, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

68. The Political Future of Afghanistan

Author:
Radha Kumar, Fabrice Pothier, and Waliullah Rahmani
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Since the Obama administration set 2011 as the date for withdrawal from Afghanistan, speculation has been rife on whether and how the deadline will be met. Although this date is actually fuzzy – it is doubtful whether 2011 will see even the beginning of an American drawdown – it has focused attention on the critical issues for stabilisation in Afghanistan that have remained unaddressed over the past nine years.
Topic:
Security, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

69. The War in Afghanistan: Key Trends in the Fighting and ANSF Development in the DoD 1230 Report and Year-End NTM-A Reporting

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Recent reporting by the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan (NTM-A) and the Department of Defense provides added insight into how the course of the fighting tracks with the development of Afghan security forces. The metrics in this analysis are not a substitute for reading the detailed Department of Defense reporting on Afghan force development available in the publications section of DoD's web site at defenselink.gov, or the new NTM-A report, "Year in Review, November 2009 to November 2010." They do show, however, that there is now a far more credible prospect that Afghan forces will be ready for transition in 2014, and capable of largely assuming responsibility for security operations. The one critical caveat is that these efforts must continue to be properly funded, and that NATO has not yet obtained anything like the quantity and quality of trainers and partners it needs to win. These metrics make it clear that this is a the highest single priority for added military contributions from NATO countries, and that current assets meet less that 40% of the requirement needed by mid-2011.
Topic:
Security, NATO, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

70. Drug Production and Trafficking, Counterdrug Policies, and Security and Governance in Afghanistan

Author:
Jonathan P. Caulkins, Mark A.R Kleiman, and Jonathan D. Kulick
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Drug production and drug trafficking are effects as well as causes of political instability. They flourish under weak states and sustain that weakness by financing insurgency and warlordism and by intimidating or corrupting the officials of enforcement agencies and security forces. Afghanistan is a primary instance of this complex of social and political pathologies.
Topic:
Security, Government, War on Drugs, Counterinsurgency, Narcotics Trafficking, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

71. Petersberg Papers on Afghanistan and the Region

Author:
Wolfgang Danspeckgruber
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Afghans and Afghanistan have faced many challenges, suffering, and destruction in the past. However time and again, they have risen after and have rebuilt. Since the 2001 Bonn Conference and the subsequent extensive international engagement in Afghanistan–both military and civilian–much has changed and much has been achieved. But today, many are not satisfied.
Topic:
Security, Development, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

72. Afghanistan: What Now for Refugees?

Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As international efforts focus on the worsening insurgency in Afghanistan, the issues of refugee return and the mobility of Afghans in their country and around the region have been overshadowed. Meeting the needs of returnees and addressing population movements remain an essential part of finding a solution to the conflict. These issues must be better integrated into policymaking. They play a role in many of the sources of discontent that undermine the legitimacy of the government in Kabul – from land disputes to rising crime. Migration has a positive side as well since t hose living abroad sustain much of the economy, but a comprehensive approach to displacement and migration is needed, including better coordination among Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, if the benefits are to start outweighing the risks.
Topic:
Security, War, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, and Kabul

73. Afghanistan's Police: The Weak Link in Security Sector Reform

Author:
Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In seven years, the Afghan National Police forces have grown to 68,000 personnel, with a target end strength of 86,000. The ANP includes the uniformed police force, which is responsible for general police duties, and specialized police forces, which deal with public order, counternarcotics, terrorism, and border control. Despite the impressive growth in numbers, the expenditure of $10 billion in international police assistance, and the involvement of the United States, the European Union, and multiple donors, the ANP is riddled with corruption and generally unable to protect Afghan citizens, control crime, or deal with the growing insurgency. The European Union has replaced Germany as the lead partner for police reform, but the United States has the largest police program, which is directed by the U.S. military. Putting soldiers in charge of police training has led to militarization of the ANP and its use as a counterinsurgency force. Using improperly trained, equipped, and supported ANP patrol men as “little soldiers” has resulted in the police suffering three times as many casualties as the Afghan National Army. Police are assigned in small numbers to isolated posts without backup and are targeted by the insurgents. Beyond funding the Taliban, the explosion in Afghan narcotics production fueled widespread corruption in the Afghan government and police. Drug abuse by police officers became increasingly common as did other forms of criminal behavior. Challenges facing the ANP were further compounded by a proliferation of bilateral police assistance programs that reflected the policing practices of donor countries. These efforts often were not coordinated with the larger U.S. and EU programs, creating confusion for the ANP. The Obama administration has acknowledged the importance of the police and announced its intentions to expand and improve the ANP as a key part of its plan for stabilizing Afghanistan. It should do this as part of a broader international community approach to police assistance that embraces a comprehensive program for security sector reform and rule of law.
Topic:
Security, War, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Asia

74. Beyond Market Forces: Regulating the Global Security Industry

Author:
James Cockayne, Emily Speers Mears, Alison Gurin, Iveta Cherneva, Sheila Oviedo, and Dylan Yaeger
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In late 2008, seventeen states, including the US, UK, China, Iraq, Afghanistan, and others, endorsed the Montreux Document on Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for States related to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies during Armed Conflict (2008). This provides important guidance to states in regulating private military and security companies (PMSCs). However, there is a need to do more, to provide increased guidance to the industry and ensure standards are enforced.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, Markets, International Security, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, and United Kingdom

75. Warlords As Bureaucrats: The Afghan Experience

Author:
Dipali Mukhopadhyay
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Despite his commitment to develop a democratic, modern state, President Hamid Karzai placed many former warlords in positions of power, particularly in the provinces. Many observers, Afghan and foreign alike, have decried the inclusion of warlords in the new governmental structures as the chief corrosive agent undermining efforts to reconstruct the state. Indeed, warlord governors have not been ideal government officials. They have employed informal power and rules, as well as their personal networks, to preserve control over their respective provinces. Informalized politics of this kind is the antithesis of a technocratic, rule-based approach to governance and entails considerable costs, from inefficiency to corruption and human rights abuses.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Government, Sovereignty, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

76. Securing Afghanistan

Author:
Seth G. Jones and C. Christine Fair
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
More than seven years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, important gains made in bringing stability and democracy to Afghanistan are imperiled. While there have been some positive developments in such areas as economic growth, the Taliban and other insurgent groups have gained some ground in the country and in neighboring Pakistan, the drug trade remains a significant problem, and corruption has worsened in the Afghan government. According to United Nations data, insurgent incidents have increased every year since the 2001 overthrow of the Taliban regime. The situation in parts of Afghanistan's south and east is particularly concerning because of the twin menace of insurgent and criminal activity. Despite these challenges, the insurgency remains deeply fractured among a range of groups, and most have little support among the Afghan population. This presents an opportunity for Afghans and the international community to turn the situation around.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Development, Economics, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

77. Pakistan and the Future of U.S. Policy

Author:
Malou Innocent
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
A spreading Islamic insurgency engulfs the amorphous and ungoverned border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. After initial victories by the United States and the Northern Alliance in autumn 2001, hundreds of Taliban and al Qaeda fighters fled Afghanistan to seek refuge across the border in Pakistan's rugged northwest. Since 2007, the number of ambushes, militant offensives, and targeted assassinations has risen sharply across Afghanistan, while suicide bombers and pro-Taliban insurgents sweep through settled areas of Pakistan at an alarming pace. For better and for worse, Pakistan will remain the fulcrum of U.S. policy in the region—its leaders continue to provide vital counterterrorism cooperation and have received close to $20 billion in assistance from the United States, yet elements associated with its national intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, covertly assist militant proxy groups destabilizing the region
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Islam, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Asia

78. The Afghan National Development Strategy: The Right Plan at the Wrong Time?

Author:
Jake Sherman
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In 2005, the Government of Afghanistan initiated a process leading to the formulation of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS). The ANDS was formally launched at the International Conference in Support of Afghanistan in Paris on June 12, 2008. According to the Paris Conference Declaration, the strategy will be the “roadmap for joint action [by donors and the Afghan government] over the next five years and sets our shared priorities.”
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

79. Private Military and Security Companies: A Framework for Regulation

Author:
James Cockayne and Emily Speers Mears
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In late 2008, seventeen states, including the US, UK, China, Iraq, and Afghanistan, endorsed the Montreux Document on Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for States Related to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies During Armed Conflict. This provides important guidance to states in regulating Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs). But there is a need to do more, to provide increased guidance to industry and ensure standards are enforced.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Privatization, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, and United Kingdom

80. Afghanistan's Election Challenges

Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan's forthcoming elections, with presidential and provincial council polls on 20 August 2009, and National Assembly and district elections scheduled for 2010, present a formidable challenge if they are to produce widely accepted and credible results. The weakness of state institutions, the deteriorating security situation and the fractured political scene are all highlighted by – and will likely have a dramatic effect on – the electoral process. The years since the last poll saw the Afghan government and international community fail to embed a robust electoral framework and drive democratisation at all levels. This has made holding truly meaningful elections much more difficult. Rather than once again running the polls merely as distinct events, the enormous resources and attention focused on the elections should be channelled into strengthening political and electoral institutions, as a key part of the state-building efforts required to produce a stable country.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

81. Back from the Brink? A Strategy for Stabilizing Afghanistan-Pakistan

Author:
Thomas R. Pickering and Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan are at risk from a combination of violent insurgency, loss of public confidence, and economic crisis. These trends threaten not only the loss of control by the Afghan and Pakistani governments, but also the spread of terrorist safe havens and, in the most extreme situation, the loss of control over some of Pakistan's nuclear weapons or materials.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

82. Arguing Afghanistan: what the detractors of NATO's mission get wrong

Author:
Patrick Keller
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Over the last few years, Afghanistan has become less stable and less secure. There were more than 2,000 civilian casualties in 2008 - more than in any other year since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001, and an increase by 40% in comparison to 2007. Coalition forces suffered 294 casualties in 2008, also the highest number so far. This is the direct consequence of a rise in Taliban and insurgent activity, mostly in eastern and southern Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban

83. New York City's Preparedness for Terrorism (and Catastrophic Natural Disasters)

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Sooner or later, somewhere or other, another natural disaster will strike America, be it a hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, or a flood. Sooner or later, somewhere or other, terrorists will attempt to strike America again. Indeed, many experts believe that the threat of another attack is rising. Al Qaeda is resurgent, having reconstituted itself along the Afghan-Pakistan border. And, recent history shows that terrorists are especially prone to strike during the transition from one administration to another or early in the term of a new government. Adding to our vulnerability, the nation is now bogged down in two wars and groaning under mounting debt, while our economy is sinking from the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Topic:
Security, Disaster Relief, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and New York

84. EU and the Comprehensive Approach

Author:
Eva Gross
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
EU efforts at implementing a comprehensive approach – and what it has termed Civil-Military Coordination (CMCO) – must be understood in the context of both the growth of the EU as a security provider by means of civilian and military crisis operations under the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), and of a changing security environment in which state failure and international terrorism increasingly require both civilian and military solutions. Operational experience in the Balkans, sub-Saharan Africa and more recently Afghanistan has further demonstrated the need to combine civilian and military crisis management in order to address security challenges that include the fight against organized crime, the need to reform the police and justice sector, or the provision of military forces on a short-term basis in support of larger peace-keeping missions.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, and Europe

85. Cyprus: Reversing the Drift to Partition

Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
One more major effort, strongly encouraged by the UN and European Union (EU), should be made in 2008 to resolve the long-running dispute between ethnic Greeks and Turks on Cyprus and achieve a comprehensive settlement to reunify the island. All sides have much to gain from such a settlement. For the Greek Cypriots, it would end lingering insecurity, give them access to the Turkish economy, the most dynamic in the region, and increase their service industry's value as an eastern Mediterranean hub. For Turkish Cypriots, it will mean being able to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship of which they are presently largely deprived. For the EU, the unresolved Cyprus problem now hampers its functioning on issues as diverse as cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan and Chinese shoe imports. And for Turkey a settlement would overcome a major obstacle to its convergence with the EU.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

86. Auf der Suche nach Sicherheit. Die internationale Intervention in Nordost-Afghanistan

Author:
Jan Koehler
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
Das vorliegende Arbeitspapier untersucht Wirkungszusammenhänge von transnationalen Konstellationen staatlicher und nicht-staatlicher Akteure mit der Erzeugung von Sicherheit sowie Entwicklung als Governance-Leistung in Nordost-Afghanistan. Ausgangspunkt der Untersuchung ist die Frage, wie die afghanische Bevölkerung Veränderungen der eigenen Sicherheit sowie lokale Entwicklungsherausforderungen über die letzten Jahre wahrgenommen hat. Das Papier besteht aus zwei Teilen. Zunächst erläutert der Autor im Rahmen einer Fallstudie die relevanten internationalen, nationalen und lokalen Akteurskonstellationen in der Zielregion und bettet die Ergebnisse der quantitativen Befragungen ein in den Kontext der qualitativen Untersuchungsergebnisse zu lokalen gesellschaftlichen und politischen Entwicklungen. Anschließend wird detailliert das methodische Vorgehen erläutert, welches auf kreuzperspektivischer Analyse der quantitativ und qualitativ erhobenen Daten gründet. Die Analyse zeigt, dass im heutigen Afghanistan Sicherheit und Entwicklung als Ergebnis transnationaler Governance entstehen können. Diese Governance-Leistungen sind auf die lokale Ebene beschränkt; sie erreichen nicht die regionale oder gar die nationale Ebene. Die Untersuchung zeigt allerdings auch, dass transnationale Governance-Leistungen im Unterschied zur strategischen Zielsetzung der internationalen Interventen gerade die nationalen und sub-nationalen staatlichen Institutionen schwächen und deren Legitimität beeinträchtigt, die durch die Intervention aufgebaut und gefestigt werden sollen.
Topic:
Security, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

87. Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan

Author:
Markus Gauster
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the US-led intervention in Afghanistan and the fall of the Taliban-regime in Kabul, the international community has focused on the implementation of security, the political transformation and the economic (re-)construction of the country. Through resolutions of the UN Security Council, civil and military Stability/Reconstruction (S/R) operations have been set up to provide assistance to the weak Afghan government. The efforts of ICM in Afghanistan have led to a surge in civilian activities provided by the armed forces and have caused an increased debate on the legitimacy , principles, range and rules of civil-military interaction.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

88. New York City's Preparedness for Terrorism (and Catastrophic Natural Disasters)

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Sooner or later, somewhere or other, another natural disaster will strike America, be it a hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, or a flood. Sooner or later, somewhere or other, terrorists will attempt to strike America again. Indeed, many experts believe that the threat of another attack is rising. 1 Al Qaeda is resurgent, having reconstituted itself along the Afghan-Pakistan border. 2 And, recent history shows that terrorists are especially prone to strike during the transition from one administration to another or early in the term of a new government. Adding to our vulnerability, the nation is now bogged down in two wars and groaning under mounting debt, while our economy is sinking from the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Topic:
Security, Natural Disasters, Financial Crisis, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States of America

89. The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry

Author:
Barnett R. Rubin and Sara Batmanglich
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Afghanistan is one of several contexts in which the long-term common interests of the U.S. and Iran have been over- shadowed by the animus originating in the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran and the Iranian revolution of 1979, to the detriment of the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Afghanistan. This confronta- tion has served the interests of the Pakistan military, Taliban, and al-Qaida. Re-establishing the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan would provide significant additional leverage over Pakistan, on whose territory the leadership of both the Taliban and al-Qaida are now found. During the first half of the Cold War (until the 1978 coup in Afghanistan and the 1979 revolution in Iran), Afghanistan was a non-aligned country with a Soviet-trained army wedged between the USSR and U.S. allies. In the 1970s, under the Nixon Doctrine, the U.S. supported efforts by the Shah of Iran to use his post-1973 oil wealth to sup- port efforts by Afghan President Muhammad Daoud to lessen Kabul’s dependence on the USSR. This ended with the successive overthrow of both Daoud and the Shah in 1978 and 1979. A U.S. close partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emerged as the primary means of maintaining U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and its eastern flank. Support for Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan and an Islamist-oriented military regime in Pakistan formed parts of this strategy to repulse the USSR from its occupation of Afghanistan, begun in late 1979, and to isolate Iran.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

90. Assessing the Contribution of International Actors in Afghanistan

Author:
Christoph Zürcher and Jan Koehler
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
This paper is based on a representative survey among 2034 households in North East Afghanistan, conducted in spring 2007. The main results of the survey can be summarized as follows: Many Western observers claim that the security situation in North Afghanistan is rapidly deteriorating. We find that this sentiment is not shared by the majority of the rural population. An overwhelming majority thinks that security has very much increased over the last two years. Most Afghans credit foreign forces as well as the Afghan government with this progress.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

91. The Emerging Pattern of Geopolitics

Author:
Peter W. Rodman
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The theme of this conference is especially important. Iraq and Afghanistan, important as they are, do not exhaust the strategic landscape. There is a global strategic environment, which presents many challenges in many different regions of the world that bear close attention in their own right. In fact, that global environment forms the context in which we should be thinking about Iraq and Afghanistan. One of the reasons it is so important how well we do in Iraq and Afghanistan is its impact on American credibility—a precious commodity that will affect our success in these other theaters.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and America

92. An Introduction to Theater Strategy and Regional Security

Author:
Clarence J. Bouchat
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This overview of theater strategy and theater security cooperation is a primer on one of the most important tools the U.S. military uses to engage other countries, deter unwanted actions, and defend U.S. and friendly nation interests. To be effective, theater strategy and theater security cooperation must be derived from and consistently linked to national and multinational strategic guidance and policy, and formulated to meet the requirements found in each region. To attain the combatant commander's strategic security goals, proper support for joint operation plans through organizational structure, force projection, sustainment, readiness training, and force development input is essential. Theater security cooperation directly supports national goals at the regional level, and enhances military operations by obviating the need for military action, or by preparing the environment better for U.S. military intervention, should it be necessary. Theater strategy is an important part of realizing national strategy around the world, and theater security cooperation is not only one of the most powerful tools in attaining the goals of theater strategy, but, through its ability to obviate the need for combat, a cost effective tool as well.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Climate Change
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

93. Shaping Commitment: Resolving Canada's Strategy Gap in Afghanistan and Beyond

Author:
Craig Hilton
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Release of Canada's first-ever National Security Policy (NSP) in 2004, followed by the International (Foreign) Policy Statement and Defence Policy Review in 2005, has publicly articulated Canada's principal security interests for the post-September 11, 2001 (9/11), world. Nevertheless, the realities of Canada's present engagement in Afghanistan have highlighted a gap between stated national security and foreign policy goals on one hand, and the Canadian military, diplomatic, and development effort in theater, on the other. National interests and values, articulated within the NSP and the International Policy Statement, are insufficient to frame the context for such a complex endeavor. Only a clearly defined strategy based upon rigorous analysis of ends, ways, and means and assessment of risk can enable informed national and political debate, provide the required guidance for campaign planning among government departments, and determine Canada's preferred stake in the wider international arena, including the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). Recommendations are provided with respect to resolving Canada's strategy gap in both the immediate and longer term.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Canada

94. Asia: Towards Security Cooperation

Author:
Michael Vatikiotis
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Asia has enjoyed a remarkable climate of peace and security in the post-Cold War era. However, there is much that could have gone wrong. Tensions on the Korean peninsula, in the Taiwan Straits, between China and India, India and Pakistan – the hot spots and fault lines of tension are well known and warily watched. Rarely has serious conflict erupted, though. The last major 'conventional' conflict in Asia was the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, though smaller wars have been fought between states in Kashmir and along the Chinese border with Vietnam. The region is also wracked by protracted internal disputes that generate sustained fears for internal security and destabilized inter-state relations. All the same, for a region that lacks the kind of sophisticated collective security arrangements that have kept the northern hemisphere at peace for the past sixty years, Asia's security environment is remarkably benign.
Topic:
Security, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, India, Taiwan, Asia, Soviet Union, Vietnam, Kashmir, Korea, and Korean Peninsula

95. Central Asia and the Caucasus: A Vulnerable Crescent

Author:
Anna Matveeva and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Caucasus and Central Asia – eight countries of the former Soviet Union stretching to the south of Russia and to the west of China – form a chain of weak states, vulnerable to conflict, extremism, and spillover from potential instability in the Middle East, Iran and Afghanistan. Once on the path of the Silk Road, these countries are still transit routes in the world economy rather than major economic players. The overarching problem for the Caucasus countries situated on the eastern fringe of Europe – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as the Russian North Caucasus – is unresolved conflicts that hamper development and poison politics. The Caucasus has become a field for latter-day Great Power battles of influence, in which competing policy agendas, sometimes even from within the same state, make for a fragmented international response that hampers regional integration and development. The autocratic states of Central Asia by contrast risk isolating themselves from the wider world, becoming a source of danger because of their deliberate remoteness. Here the globalized threats of drug trafficking and militant Islam are the biggest potential source of instability. Multilateral organizations such as the UN are still struggling to articulate a coherent response to the two regions as a whole, tending to make more narrow interventions that have limited impact.
Topic:
Security and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

96. Reforming Afghanistan's Police

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Policing goes to the very heart of state building, since a credible national institution that helps provide security and justice for the population is central to government legitimacy. However Afghanistan's citizens often view the police more as a source of fear than of security. Instead of emphasising their coercive powers, reform should focus on accountability, ethnic representation and professionalism, along with an urgent need to depoliticise and institutionalise appointments and procedures. It is counter-productive to treat police as an auxiliary fighting unit in battling the insurgency, as has been happening with increasing frequency in the troubled south. Afghanistan, like any other democracy, requires police service more than police force.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

97. From Soldier to Civilian: Disarmament Demobilisation Reintegration in Afghanistan

Author:
Peter Dahl Thruelsen
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This report sets out to explore the processes of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) within the context of post-conflict peace-building. I have tried to investigate the transformation of soldiers to civilians in the aftermath of war. The purpose of the research is to facilitate practical recommendations of DDR to be used in future cases of post-conflict peace-building.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

98. Continuity and change in Italy's foreign policy under the Prodi government. The cases of Iraq and Afghanistan

Author:
J.C. Mahncke
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
“I see that under the Prodi government Italy already now has and even more in future will be able to have a big role in Europe, and that as a result of this role will be able to take on an important function in relation to the United States and the Arab world […] I believe that in the course of one month Italy has succeeded to launch a strategic rearrangement of its foreign policy.”1 These are the words of Massimo D'Alema, Italy's Minister of Foreign Affairs since May 2006. Indeed, the measures taken by the new Italian government of Prime Minister Romano Prodi indicate, if not a completely new orientation, a revised concept behind Italian foreign policy in contrast to that of his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi. Most striking is the withdrawal of Italian troops from Iraq, to be completed by autumn of this year. But Prodi wants to maintain Italian involvement in Afghanistan, and the government seems eager to uphold the traditionally good relations with the United States, despite the withdrawal from Iraq. While Prodi and D'Alema are in favour of a more important role of Italy in Europe and of the European Union in the world, close ties are to be kept with the United States. According to D'Alema: “The foreign policy of the government intends to favour the growth of an autonomous European actor but tied to the United States by solid and mature understanding within the alliance.”
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Italy

99. Losing Hearts and Minds: World public opinion and post-9/11 US security policy

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The sympathy and support for the United States that surged worldwide in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks began to ebb as soon as US bombs began falling on Afghanistan. Supportive sentiments continued to recede through 2004, driven increasingly by the Iraq war and eventually settling at levels unseen since the early 1980s. The trend has temporarily reversed in some places at some times, either in response to hopeful news from Iraq (such as the December 2004 elections) or in reaction to local events (the November 2005 terrorist bombing in Jordan). Also, there are national exceptions to the trend (Israel) and partial exceptions (India). On balance, however, the United States today finds world opinion substantially at odds with its foreign policy and its leadership on most particulars.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Israel, and Jordan

100. East of the Middle East: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and U.S. security implications

Author:
Tim Murphy
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan represented an eastward shift in the United States' international focus. Previously concentrated on the Middle East, the United States has reconfigured its foreign policy directives to include interests east of the Middle East. The shift was long overdue. Central Asia is a rising regional security concern, and Chinese and Russian actions therein have cultivated robust political ties. Resulting cooperatives and agreements promote Chinese and Russian regional objectives. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) originally consisted of five Central Asian and Asian countries (the Shanghai Five), ostensibly to unify signatories on economic, social and political platforms. However, the SCO is often a proxy to advance Chinese and Russian interests.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia