Content Type: Working Paper / Political Geography: Afghanistan / Topic: Foreign Policy

1. Turkey in Afghanistan: more than one reason to stay

Author:: Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Despite a long history of bilateral contacts, Turkey’s most intensive commitment in Afghanistan only started in 2001 with the NATO mission. A first friendship treaty was signed back in 1921; the first official foreign visit to the Republic of Turkey was made in 1928 by King Amanullah of Afghanistan. Turkey’s engagement in South Asia started with Afghanistan but has recently been Pakistan-centred. As the only majority-Muslim NATO country, Turkey was viewed more positively by the Afghan population and the Taliban than other NATO member states. Ankara has been reaching out to the Taliban since summer 2021. However, the Taliban have not met Turkish demands for a more inclusive government, or in relation to girls’ education. Turkey has become a haven for non-Taliban (opposition) Afghans, who are told not to voice their criticism of the Taliban. There are four main motivations for Turkey’s engagement in Afghanistan: 1) improving relations with the US; 2) stabilizing Afghanistan to prevent migrant flows; 3) getting a foothold in the geopolitics of the region; 4) benefitting from the economic potential. Kabul international airport is important both for the Taliban and for Turkey. For the Taliban, it is their window to the world; for Turkey, it is an opportunity to profit economically and to boost its international status. In Afghanistan, Turkey’s soft power approach includes TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), the Maarif schools, and the Yunus Emre Institute. These institutions have remained operational. In 2020, Afghanistan received the third largest amount of Turkish developmental aid, amounting to 36.5 million USD. Even if the world, and Turkey, are currently focused on Ukraine, Afghanistan will continue to occupy an important place in Turkey’s regional foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East

2. How Religious Diplomacy and Pan-Islamic Organizations Can Help Stabilize Afghanistan

Author:: Hussam R. Ahmed
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was followed by a surprisingly quick takeover by the Taliban, the predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that had initially been ousted in 2001. Their triumphant return to power 20 years has raised numerous questions about what led to the US and Western failure in Afghanistan, the implications for regional and global security, and the policy options now available to Europe and the United States. As of now, the West has no plans to engage with the Taliban government, but continued inaction could result in dire consequences for Afghan citizens as well as for Western interests at large. A severe humanitarian crisis has gripped Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, pushing nearly 20 million people to the verge of famine. The United Nations Development Programme fears Afghanistan will face near “universal poverty” by the end of 2022 with 97 percent of the population living below the international poverty line. There is also a growing threat that a Taliban regime could enable terrorist organizations to operate more openly on Afghan soil, paving the way for new, aggravated threats to regional and global security. The withdrawal has also compelled European to re-evaluate their partnership with the United States on Afghanistan and to fear that the fallout from the Taliban’s resurgence will be most severe for Europe, including more immediately with social and economic costs of dealing with more refugees. There is widespread agreement in the West that engagement in Afghanistan needs to continue but not the way it was done in the past. To explore what that reimagining Western engagement can look like, this paper presents an analysis of a foreign policy approach that has largely remained absent from the discussion: religious diplomacy. This form of Track Two diplomacy is deeply rooted in religious texts, practices, and traditions, and it is oriented toward the active role of faith leaders in politics, conflict resolution, and peace-building. In Afghanistan, where the sociocultural and political realities have historically remained deeply intertwined with it, an insufficient understanding of religion has led some to argue this was a major blind spot in the Western foreign policy approach. There is a need to revisit religion’s centrality to the war and how religious diplomacy offers an underappreciated peace-building framework that can be operationalized through faith-based organizations that share existing relationships with Afghanistan, a common religious language and cultural affinities with its people, and moral capital to draw from. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Muslim World League, in particular, are two highly influential pan-Islamic nongovernmental organizations, that have leveraged their religious legitimacy and moderate interpretations of Islamic teachings to provide a counter narrative to radical ideas that promote violent extremism, to facilitate dialogue, to mediate conflicts, and to initiate peace-building in previous and ongoing conflicts in the Muslim world. Drawing on their experience, this paper argues that creative religious diplomacy through them can be an effective policy option for the Europe and the United States for a sustainable future engagement in Afghanistan. The paper therefore offers recommendations that flesh out the form this could take.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Religion, Political stability, Domestic Politics, Society, and Community-based Organizations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

3. Regime Change No More: Coming to Terms with the Greater Middle East

Author:: Henrik Larsen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Reflecting on the ‘farcical retreat from Afghanistan’ back in August 2021, Henrik Larsen discusses the need for a reckoning within US foreign policy and that of its NATO Allies. To focus on the other challenges to transatlantic security with a sense of integrity, these states must come to grips with their failed regime change agenda over the past 20 years. Afghanistan was the first of their interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2001, alongside Iraq, Libya, and Syria, that obscured the pursuit of realistic objectives and prioritised (liberal) ideals that proved to be detached from the local realities. In the wake of NATO’s new Strategic Concept for 2030 and beyond, this Strategic Update seeks to analyse the options for policy in the Middle East going forward.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

4. Porosity of Tajik-Afghan Border Making Beijing’s Involvement in Region More Ominous

Author:: Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In most parts of the world, the lines on maps separating countries are true borders. That is, they are controlled by the governments on one or both sides. But in some places, they remain the quasi-open frontiers they were in the past or have reemerged as such because of recent political changes; those borders are highly porous zones, where people and goods can move more or less freely in one or both directions without much regard to the powers that be. Such situations invite outside involvement that can ramp up quickly and disturb preexisting international arrangements. One poignant example is the adjoining border area shared by Tajikistan and Afghanistan. In recent years, that frontier has attracted attention because of the danger that Islamist militants from Afghanistan could cross it to move north into Tajikistan and beyond. But another danger is emerging: China is establishing increasing control over Tajikistan and, thus, is putting itself in a position to project power southward from Tajikistan into Afghanistan. If Beijing does so, that could fundamentally change the security situation and geopolitical balance in Central and South Asia as a whole.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, South Asia, Central Asia, Asia, and Tajikistan

5. Afghanistan: the view from Russia

Author:: Józef Lang
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Russia's current and foreseeable policy towards Afghanistan is multi-vectored, complex and shows, at times, signs of incoherence. Russia views developments in Afghanistan as a strategic challenge and is expressing growing concern over the country's prospects for stability after the withdrawal of ISAF forces by the end of 2014. Russian decision-makers fear that a security vacuum emerging after the withdrawal could destabilise Central Asia and have a negative impact on Russia itself. At the same time, Moscow is concerned with Western military presence in the region, which it regards as interference in its neighbourhood. At tactical level, Russia also sees the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to secure its interests both regionally (consolidating its influence in Central Asia) and more widely (in terms of its relations with NATO).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia

6. Changing US Security Strategy: The Search for Stability and the "Non-War" against "Non-Terrorism"

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: More than a decade into the “war on terrorism,” much of the political debate in the US is still fixated on the legacy of 9/11. US politics has a partisan fixation on Benghazi, the Boston Marathon bombing, intelligence intercepts, and Guantanamo. Far too much US attention still focuses on “terrorism” at a time the US faces a much broader range of threats from the instability in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) and Islamic world. Moreover, much of the US debate ignores the fact that the US has not actually fought a “war on terrorism” over the last decade, and the US failures in using military force and civil aid in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US has not fought wars as such, but rather became involved in exercises in armed nation building where stability operations escalated into national building as a result of US occupation and where the failures in stability operations and nation building led to insurgencies that forced the US into major counterinsurgency campaigns that had little to do with counterterrorism. An analysis of the trends in the Iraq and Afghan conflicts shows that the US has not been fighting a war on terrorism since Bin Laden and Al Qaida Central were driven into Pakistan in December 2001. The US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and then made stability operations and armed nation building its key goals. It was US mishandling of these exercises in armed nation building that led to major counterinsurgency campaigns although – at least in the case of Afghanistan --the US continued to label its military operations as a struggle against “terrorism.” By 2013, the US had committed well over $1.4 trillion to these exercises in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the same time, the US made massive increases in its domestic spending on homeland defense that it rationalized as part of the fight against terrorism but often had little or nothing to do with any aspect of counterterrorism. At the same time, the US failed to develop consistent or useful unclassified statistics on the patterns in terrorism and its counterterrorism activities. The US government has never provided a meaningful break out of federal activities and spending at home or abroad which actually focus on terrorism, or any unclassified measures of effectiveness. The OMB has lumped a wide range of activities that have no relation to terrorism it its reporting on the President's budget request – activities whose total cost now approach $60 billion a year. The Department of Defense has never provided a meaningful estimate of the total cost of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, or a break out of the small portion of total overseas contingency operations (OCO) spending actually spent on counterterrorism versus counter insurgency. The State Department and US intelligence community provide no meaningful unclassified data on the cost of their counterterrorism effort and it is unclear that they have developed any metrics at any level that show the cost-benefits of their activities. The annual US State Department country reports on terrorism come as close to an unclassified report on the status of terrorism as the US government provides. While many portions are useful, the designation of terrorist movements is often political and shows the US designation of terrorist movements conflates terrorism and insurgency. The closest the US has come to developing any metrics on terrorism has been to develop an unclassified database in the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC) that never distinguished terrorism from insurgency. This database formed the core of the statistical annex to State Department reporting, but has since been withdrawn without explanation. As this analysis shows in detail, it now has been replaced by a contractor effort that makes all of the previous mistakes made by the NCTC. The end result is a set of official reporting and statistics in the annex to the State Department report where “terrorism” remains remained poorly defined, badly structured, ignored in parts of the world, and conflates terrorism with counterinsurgency, instability, and civil war. A review of the Afghan, Iraq conflicts, and other recent conflicts in the MENA region shows just how serious these problems are in distorting the true nature of the wars the US is fighting and the threats it faces. The same is true of the unclassified reporting the US government provides on terrorism. A detailed review of the most recent State Department report on terrorism provides important insights into key terrorist movements, but the narratives generally ignore their ties to insurgent movements, their statistical data include some major insurgent movements and exclude others, and many of the data seem to include violence that is not truly terroristic in character.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and North Africa

7. Transition in Afghanistan: 2009-2013

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition. It has not made its level of future commitment clear to its allies or the Afghans, and it has failed dismally to convince the Congress and the American people that there is a credible reason to support Transition beyond the end of 2014.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Islam, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

8. Afghanistan After the Drawdown

Author:: Seth G. Jones and Keith Crane
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Afghanistan will undergo three major transitions in 2014: from a Hamid Karzai–led government to one presumably headed by another president following the 2014 election; from a U.S.-led to an Afghan-led counterinsurgency; and from an economy driven by foreign expenditures on military support and assistance to one more reliant on domestic sources of growth, as the United States and other countries reduce their presence. The United States and its allies will need to shape each of these transitions in ways that safeguard their interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

9. Turkish-Russian Relations in The Post-Cold War Period: Current Dynamics, Future Prospects

Author:: Habibe Özdal, M. Turgut Demirtepe, Kerim Has, and Hasan Selim Özertem
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:: Turkey and Russia have succeeded in developing a constructive dialogue since the Cold War era. The roots of this dialogue go back to the 1920s. Following the Bolshevik Revolution, throughout the Turkish War for Independence and the establishment of the Turkish Republic, and up until 1936 the two countries had cooperated in several areas. During the Cold War, Turkey and Russia (in the form of the USSR) were in opposite blocs, but being located in the same geography, both countries found various ways to keep dialogue channels open.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Asia

10. Crisis Stability and Nuclear Exchange Risks on the Subcontinent: Major Trends and the Iran Factor

Author:: Thomas F. Lynch III
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Crisis stability—the probability that political tensions and low-level conflict will not erupt into a major war between India and Pakistan—is less certain in 2013 than at any time since their sequential nuclear weapons tests of 1998. India's vast and growing spending on large conventional military forces, at least in part as a means to dissuade Pakistan's tolerance of (or support for) insurgent and terrorist activity against India, coupled with Pakistan's post-2006 accelerated pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons as a means to offset this Indian initiative, have greatly increased the risk of a future Indo-Pakistani military clash or terrorist incident escalating to nuclear exchange. America's limited abilities to prevent the escalation of an Indo-Pakistani crisis toward major war are best served by continuing a significant military and political presence in Afghanistan and diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue with Pakistan well beyond 2014.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, America, Iran, India, and Asia

11. Not only "Containerspotting" - NATO's Redeployment from Landlocked Afghanistan

Author:: Heidi Reisinger
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: On 31 December 2014, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, the largest military mission of NATO, will be history. In line with the political decision taken at NATO's Lisbon Summit in 2010, ISAF troops will be leaving. With them will go all their equipment: a range of items, from weapon systems and armored vehicles to chairs, kitchens and fitness centers used by more than 100,000 troops and approximately the same amount of civilian personnel. This is a gigantic project. If one thought getting into Afghanistan was difficult, getting out is a lot harder. It represents the biggest multi-national military logistical challenge in modern history. Millions of tons of material have to be de-militarized, dismantled, handed over, sold, scrapped, recycled, donated to the Afghans and/or third nations, or transferred home. More than 125,000 containers and 80,000 military vehicles have to be disposed of or brought back home to NATO nations and NATO partner countries. If the containers and the vehicles were placed one after the other, end to end, they would form a line as long as the distance from Berlin to Paris.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, Paris, Asia, and Berlin

12. Revising COIN: The Stakeholder Centric Approach

Author:: Karsten Friis, Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud, and Harald Håvoll
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With the apparent lack of progress and success in Afghanistan, counter- insurgency (COIN), both as a theory and practice, is falling out of favor within the political and military establishment in the US. This comes at a time when the US is redirecting its geopolitical focus away from global instability towards the Asia-Pacific and the 'New Great Power Game'.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Australia/Pacific

13. How to get out of Afghanistan: NATO's withdrawal through Central Asia

Author:: Heidi Reisinger
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: NATO's decision to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan has forced the Alliance to think long and hard about the "how" associated with such a withdrawal. As a result the strategic importance of the five Central Asian states Kazakhstan, Kyrrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, a politically neglected region, mostly seen as a supplier of raw materials and energy, is likely to increase significantly. During the past ten years the ISAF mission has focused its attention on Afghanistan itself. The only neighboring country taken into serious consideration has been Pakistan, as emblematically shown in the US AfPak policy approach. North of Afghanistan, the Central Asian states have been left on the sidelines and their strategic and political role has been underestimated. However, they are now back on the political agenda as an indispensable transit ground.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

14. After Combat, the Perils of Partnership: NATO and Afghanistan beyond 2014

Author:: Sten Rynning
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: NATO is set to terminate its combat mission in Afghanistan and establish Afghan security leadership by the end of 2014 - a process which the Alliance defined as "irreversible" at its Chicago summit on 20-21 May 2012. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will thus complete its mission after thirteen years, and become history. However, NATO is not just packing up and going home. In 2010 the Alliance launched its proposal for an Enduring Partnership with Afghanistan, and in Chicago it declared: "Afghanistan will not stand alone." Afghanistan can count on NATO's "enduring commitment" to the country, and NATO will now prepare "a new training, advising and assistance mission" that can begin in January 2015.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

15. Emerging Security Challenges: A Glue for NATO and Partners?

Author:: Ioanna-Nikoletta Zyga
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: When the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) formed as a defensive military alliance more than six decades ago, one of its fundamental tasks was to deter Soviet aggression against Western Europe. Since the end of the Cold War, the Allies have come to understand that their security depends on their ability to face threats emerging from well beyond the Euro-Atlantic space. NATO has thus broadened its focus from collective defense to security management beyond its borders: its numerous operations in this capacity have included peace support, peacekeeping, disaster relief and counter-piracy missions. These operations have taken place not only in NATO's traditional areas of intervention such as the Balkans, but also as far afield as the Gulf of Aden, the Horn of Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa, Europe, and North Atlantic

16. Can NATO Find a Role for Itself vis-À -vis China?

Author:: James Boutilier
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: NATO is at a crossroads. This is not the first time that Brussels has been faced with critical decisions about the direction, character and raison d'être of this unique and remarkable organization. But this time the stakes are even higher. The major centers of global power are all weak simultaneously for individual and inter-connected reasons. The greatest power on earth and NATO's banker, the United States, is confronting almost insurmountable levels of debt and talk about the end of the American empire has become commonplace. The European community is reeling from the cumulative effect of debt crises. And China, the 21st century's "workshop of the world" (and in the eyes of some a potential savor of ailing economies in Europe) has begun to see its economy slow disturbingly. At the same time, two other phenomena are unfolding; the rapid and profound shift in the global centre of economic gravity from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region and the winding down of NATO's involvement in Afghanistan. The latter, of course, raises the inevitable question: "What next?" The former raises a related question: "Does NATO's future lie in Asia?"
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Europe, and Asia

17. India in Afghanistan: A Rising Power or a Hesitant Power?

Author:: Harsh Pant
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:: Indian diplomacy faced a major setback at the Afghanistan Conference in London in January 2010, where Indian concerns were summarily ignored. In one stroke, Pakistan rendered New Delhi irrelevant in the evolving security dynamic in Afghanistan. When Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna underscored the folly of making a distinction “between good Taliban and bad Taliban,” he was completely out of sync with the larger mood at the conference. Days before this much-hyped conference, senior U.S. military commanders were suggesting that peace talks with the Taliban may be imminent and that Taliban members might even be invited to join the government in Kabul. The West had made up its mind that it was not a question of if, but when and how to exit from Afghanistan, which seemed to be becoming a quagmire for the leaders in Washington and London.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Power Politics, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, India, Taliban, London, and New Delhi

18. Waiting for the Taliban in Afghanistan

Author:: Gilles Dorronsoro
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan will leave the country worse than it was before 2001 in some respects. There is no clear plan for the future. Washington will progressively lose its influence over Kabul, and drone operations in Pakistan are not a credible way to fight jihadist groups on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The situation will only worsen after 2014, when most U.S. troops are out of the country and aid going to the Afghan government steeply declines.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, and Asia

19. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Deficits, Cost-Escalation, and Sequestration

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert Shelala II
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP – in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Asia

20. The U.S. Surge and Afghan Local Governance: Lessons for Transition

Author:: Frances Z. Brown
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The U.S. military and civilian surge into Afghanistan starting in late 2009 aimed to stabilize the country through interconnected security, governance, and development initiatives. Despite policymakers’ claims that their goals for Afghan governance were “modest,” the surge’s stated objectives amounted to a transformation of the subnational governance landscape. Three years later, the surge has attained localized progress, but it has not achieved the strategic, sustainable “game change” in Afghan subnational governance it sought. The surge has not met these objectives because its success depended upon three initial U.S. assumptions that proved unrealistic. First, surge policy assumed that governance progress would accrue as quickly as security progress, with more governance-focused resources compensating for less time. Second, surge policy assumed that “bottom-up” progress in local governance would be reinforced by “top-down” Afghan government structures and reforms. Third, surge policy assumed that “absence of governance” was a key universal driver for the insurgency, whereas in some areas, presence of government became a fueling factor. Once the surge was in motion, other miscalculations emerged: the confusion of discrete successes with replicable progress, the mistaking of individuals’ improvements with institution building, the confusion of “local” with “simple,” and the overreliance on technological solutions to address problems that were fundamentally political in nature. As the surge draws down, the U.S-Afghan Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement represents a promising opportunity for longer-term strategic planning. As the international community moves to transition, it should exert its remaining leverage to impact select systemic issues—such as by resolving district council makeup, improving line ministries’ recurring services, and bolstering provincial administrations—rather than tactical-level ones. The international community should also prioritize a few key, attainable efforts, such as providing training that is consistent with current Afghan government functions, while avoiding creating additional structures. Finally, all the usual Afghan local governance recommendations still apply: resolving Afghanistan’s subnational challenges requires long-term commitment and systematic execution.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

21. Afghanistan: The Impossible Transition

Author:: Gilles Dorronsoro
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: A combination of two critical problems threatens to undermine the mission of the United States-led coalition in Afghanistan: the failure of the counterinsurgency strategy and a disconnect between political objectives and military operations. If anything, the current strategy is making a political solution less likely, notably because it is antagonizing Pakistan without containing the rise of the armed opposition. That has put the coalition in a paradoxical situation, in which it is being weakened militarily by a non-negotiated and inevitable withdrawal while at the same time alienating potential negotiating partners.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

22. The Triple Compact: Improving Accountability in State Building

Author:: Ben Rowswell
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: As a result of international state-building efforts, progress has been made in Afghanistan, however, political dysfunction and a lack of accountability remain problems. It has been suggested that failures of accountability may, in fact, be a product of the state- building effort itself. In the hybrid form of governance where authority is divided between the government and the international community, it can be difficult for the population to determine where accountability lies, leading to feelings of frustration and disempowerment.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, War, Foreign Aid, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

23. Pakistan's future policy towards Afghanistan

Author:: Qandeel Siddique
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: What factors are likely to govern the course of Pakistan's future policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan? This question has increasing relevance for regional security, especially in the light of the imminent endgame in Afghanistan and of the ongoing dialogue with the Taliban. This report probes the implications of the volatile US–Pakistan relationship and of Indo–Pak rivalry in the Af–Pak war theatre, in particular for Pakistan's reliance on militant extremist groups to secure and further its strategic interests. Developments pertaining to the role and engagement of the United States in the region and Indian ties to Afghanistan and the US affect Pakistan's perceived power status in the Indian subcontinent. The extent to which Pakistani interests are met in the process and out - come of brokering a deal with the Taliban is an additional determinant of whether Pakistan will continue with, or veer from, the status quo.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

24. Afghanistan in Transition: The Security Context Post-Bin Laden

Author:: Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In 2011 NATO initiated the Inteqal process, i.e. the "transition" of security responsibilities from ISAF to the Afghan state and its security forces. The main pillars of this process are the build up of the Afghan Army and Police and the improvement of Afghanistan's governance system at both national and local level. Progress has been made in this respect, although challenges remain. NATO aims to complete the transition by 2014, while reducing its military presence in the country, but a substantial Allied footprint is likely to remain in Afghanistan beyond that date. The death of Bin Laden has brought about little changes to the situation on the ground, while it may have a significant impact on the US's attitude towards peace talks with the Taliban and thus influence the transition timeline and nature.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

25. u.s. and iranian strategic competition: Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan

Author:: Erin Fitzgerald and Varun Vira
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The US has many hard decisions to make in shaping its policies toward Central and South Asia – driven primarily by the war in Afghanistan, the growing instability in Pakistan, and whether the US should actively pursue strategic interest in Central Asia in the face of Russian and Chinese pressures and advantages, than by strategic competition with Iran.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

26. Reconstruction Zones in Afghanistan and Haiti

Author:: Graciana del Castillo
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The longest war and one of the largest relief efforts in U.S. history- in Afghanistan and Haiti, respectively-are testing the cost-effectiveness of U.S. foreign assistance in conflictravaged or disaster-torn countries. U.S.-led economic reconstruction in both countries is clearly off track and becoming increasingly costly and unpopular-both at home and in the respective countries. Reconstruction zones (RZs), consisting of two distinct but linked areas to ensure synergies between them-a local-production reconstruction zone (LRZ) producing for local consumption and an export-oriented reconstruction zone (ERZ) producing exclusively for export- could be used to replace the fragmented way aid is provided to these countries with an integrated strategy for economic reconstruction. With an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, ERZs-operating as free-trade zones- could create appropriate links to the national economy as well as positive externalities or spillovers. Such a framework would avoid the problems created by these zones operating as enclaves in Haiti in the past. By targeting aid to provide adequate infrastructure and services within the RZs at a manageable scale, countries could jump-start their productive sectors and create jobs and entrepreneurship in agriculture, light manufacturing, and services, both for domestic consumption and for exports. By creating dynamic and inclusive growth, RZs could help countries stand on their own feet, consolidate peace, and overcome the unsustainable aid dependency to which they have grown accustomed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, War, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Caribbean

27. The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations

Author:: Richard J. Krickus
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said that the ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan will be a solid test of their reset in relations. That proposition is the thesis of this monograph. Many analysts in both countries would agree with this assessment, but a significant number of them believe a fruitful reset is implausible.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Cold War, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, and United States

28. Strained Alliances: Iran's troubled relations to Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:: Janne Bjerre Christensen
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This report offers a critical examination of Iran's influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Two points are made: that Iran's top priority is its own regime's survival and its regional policies are directed by its national security concerns. Secondly, that Iran's engagements in Afghanistan are clearly guided by the presence of the US. Iran's predominant interest is in stabilizing Afghanistan, but as long as Afghanistan is neither safe nor stable, Iran will play a double game and engage with its regional neighbours according to the US–Iran equation. Deterrence, counter-containment and competition are the keywords in these complex relations. The report outlines Iran's reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, its political platform and 'soft power', and the bonds of mutual dependency in terms of water rights, refugees and drug trafficking. It examines Iran's alleged military interventions and the reasons for playing this double game. Lastly, the report discusses Iran's tense relationship with Pakistan with regard to both Afghanistan and the troubled region of Baluchistan.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Power Politics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Iran

29. Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future

Author:: Hassan Abbas
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In recent years, Pakistan has stumbled from one crisis to another. A number of political and socioeconomic challenges threaten to further destabilize a country that already is reeling from insurgencies along its northwestern border. Pakistan's newest democratic government is struggling to maintain control over parts of its territory where militant religious groups are intent on challenging its authority and legitimacy. The country's conflict with India over Kashmir, now in its seventh decade, appears as intractable as ever, and the war in neighboring Afghanistan has deepened instability throughout Pakistan. The transition from a near-decade-long rule under a military dictatorship is slow and complicated, as rampant corruption and politicization of the bureaucracy present huge obstacles to the state-building process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

30. Russia's strategies in Afghanistan and their consequences for NATO

Author:: Marlène Laruelle
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: In July 2011, the first U.S. troops started to leave Afghanistan - a powerful symbol of Western determination to let the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) gradually take over responsibility for national security. This is also an important element in the strategy of Hamid Karzai's government, which seeks to appear not as a pawn of Washington but as an autonomous actor in negotiations with the so-called moderate Taliban. With withdrawal to be completed by 2014, the regionalization of the "Afghan issue" will grow. The regional powers will gain autonomy in their relationship with Kabul, and will implement strategies of both competition and collaboration. In the context of this regionalization, Russia occupies an important position.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, and United States

31. Detained and Denied in Afghanistan

Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Human Rights First
Abstract:: In August 2010, General David Petraeus, Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, announced a shift in U.S. strategy. The United States “cannot kill or capture our way to victory,” he warned. Rather, we must earn the trust of the Afghan people.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, War, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

32. Human rights challenges in EU civilian crisis management

Author:: Wanda Troszczynska-van Genderen
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Over the years, human rights have become an area of programmatic focus in the crisis management operations conducted by the EU. Nevertheless, the geopolitical reality after the launch of the so-called 'war on terror' witnessed the emergence of new practical impediments to human rights implementation in civilian crisis response operations. The militarisation of the humanitarian space and blurred boundaries between military and civilian tasks resulted in the increased vulnerability of civilians working in ground operations. Simultaneously, the scale of human rights violations, coupled with security threats to civilians due to both attacks by insurgents and interventions carried out by international military personnel, created operational challenges going well beyond what previous Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) civilian crisis management operations had to deal with.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Europe

33. U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan

Author:: Richard L. Armitage and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Al-Qaeda's attack on September 11, 2001, was the deadliest terrorist assault on the United States in history. In the hours and days that followed, Americans learned more about the perpetrators and their links to bases and networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Less than a month later, President George W. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom. Much changed nearly overnight as the United States focused military, economic, and diplomatic attention squarely on the region for the first time since the end of the Cold War. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime—al-Qaeda's sympathetic host—was toppled. In Pakistan, the Pervez Musharraf regime was drafted into Washington's Global War on Terror.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

34. Is a Regional Strategy Viable in Afghanistan?

Author:: Ashley J. Tellis, Martha Brill Olcott, Dmitri V. Trenin, Frédéric Grare, Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Christopher Boucek, Gilles Dorronsoro, Karim Sadjadpour, Michael D. Swaine, Aroop Mukharji, Haroun Mir, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, and Tiffany Ng
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Obama administration has made some decisive changes to the Afghan policy it inherited. Most significantly, in its first year it committed to a 250 percent increase in the American force on the ground (adding 51,000 troops to the 34,000 in Afghanistan when Mr. Obama took office) and lobbied hard to secure increases in non–U.S. coalition forces. It matched this large increase in force with a major reduction in the goal: from raising a democratic state in Afghanistan to the creation of a state strong enough to prevent a takeover by the Taliban, al–Qaeda, or any other radical Islamic group; and to “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat” al–Qaeda (which, of course, is not achievable in Afghanistan or Afghanistan and Pakistan alone). The third pillar of the policy was and is a greater emphasis on the need for a regional approach, a belief the Bush administration moved toward in its closing days.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Religion, Terrorism, and Reform
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, and India

35. Afghanistan at the Breaking Point

Author:: Gilles Dorronsoro
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The current strategy of defeating the Taliban militarily is unrealistic. The coalition is on the defensive across much of Afghanistan and, with current troop levels, can at most only contain the insurgency. On present course, the coalition is swiftly heading toward an impasse.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

36. Third Generation Civil-Military Relations and the 'New Revolution in Military Affairs'

Author:: Frederik Rosén
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This paper identifies a new development in civil-military relations, which I suggest calling third-generation civil-military relations. Third-generation civil-military relations are the product of military organisations embarking on civil governance roles and the creation of deep partnerships between military and civil agencies. They appear to be less dramatic than 'traditional' civil-military relations (Blue Helmets, Provincial Reconstructions Teams) in that they do not create the same visible alignment on the ground between military and non-military identities. Yet they do represent a momentous development for the US military's engagement in Afghanistan in particular, as well as challenging our understanding of the role of the military in global security, thus adding a new complexity to international security cooperation. This complexity concerns differing opinions with regard to what kinds of tasks the military should do and what it should not. It is about norms and principles rather than about violent consequences for civilians. There are many tasks for which most military organisations are unsuitable, because they lack the necessary expertise and institutional capability. But these are practical matters rather than being about the normative 'should' questions: Should the military train civil police? Should the military work on civil reform areas in the Afghan Ministry of Interior? Should the military engage in civil justice-sector reform? The common reply to such questions is – or has been – no. Yet developments on the ground point precisely towards such an expansion of military affairs.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

37. Pakistan and the Future of U.S. Policy

Author:: Malou Innocent
Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: A spreading Islamic insurgency engulfs the amorphous and ungoverned border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. After initial victories by the United States and the Northern Alliance in autumn 2001, hundreds of Taliban and al Qaeda fighters fled Afghanistan to seek refuge across the border in Pakistan's rugged northwest. Since 2007, the number of ambushes, militant offensives, and targeted assassinations has risen sharply across Afghanistan, while suicide bombers and pro-Taliban insurgents sweep through settled areas of Pakistan at an alarming pace. For better and for worse, Pakistan will remain the fulcrum of U.S. policy in the region—its leaders continue to provide vital counterterrorism cooperation and have received close to $20 billion in assistance from the United States, yet elements associated with its national intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, covertly assist militant proxy groups destabilizing the region
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Asia

38. Indian Involvement in Afghanistan: Stepping Stone or Stumbling Block to Regional Hegemony?

Author:: Melanie Hanif
Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Due to its geo-strategic location between the Central Asian, South Asian, and Middle Eastern security complexes, Afghanistan is often defined as an insulator state, and sometimes also as a connector. This in-between position has led to constant instability: ever since the creation of the Durrani Empire, the country has suffered from internal power struggles as well as outside interference. External attempts to control Afghanistan have nonetheless proven extremely difficult. This also holds true for the current conflict management efforts of the US-led coalition. But what could the alternatives be? This paper seeks to explore the prospect of regional security cooperation as a path towards stability for Afghanistan. Although the academic debate has thus far not considered Afghanistan as a primarily South Asian country, I will focus on the South Asian subsystem for three reasons: Firstly, current security matters in Afghanistan are highly connected to the situation in Pakistan. Secondly, with its accession to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Afghanistan has shown an interest in establishing stronger ties with South Asia. Thirdly, India as a rising regional power is the only country in the region that might possess the capabilities, the willingness, and the legitimacy for a long-term engagement in Afghan security.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and Asia

39. A "New" Strategy for Afghanistan and Its Region

Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs convened a private workshop, “A Strategy for Afghanistan and Its Region,” May 7-10, 2009 in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein. The workshop's aim was to discuss in-depth the strategy of the Obama Administration toward Afghanistan and its region and to formulate additional recommendations. Some twenty leading international experts from the region, Asia, Europe and the United States participated. The meeting was co-funded by LISD, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the Stiftung für Selbstbestimmung und Internationale Beziehungen (SiBiL) in Vaduz, Liechtenstein. The workshop was co-chaired by Francesc Vendrell and Wolfgang Danspeckgruber.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, New York, and Europe

40. Obama's Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan, December 2009

Author:: Barack Obama
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: President Obama gave this address on December 1, 2009 at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, Armed Struggle, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and New York

41. Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action

Author:: Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Since taking office, the Obama administration has repeatedly affirmed its intent to prevent potential future international crises from becoming the source of costly new U.S. military commitments. In one of the earliest foreign policy pronouncements of the new administration, Vice President Joseph R. Biden declared: “We'll strive to act preventively, not preemptively, to avoid whenever possible or wherever possible the choice of last resort between the risks of war and the dangers of inaction. We'll draw upon all the elements of our power—military and diplomatic; intelligence and law enforcement; economic and cultural—to stop crises from occurring before they are in front of us.” Not long afterward, General James L. Jones, in his first speech as national security adviser, echoed much the same objective: “We need to be able to anticipate the kind of operations that we should be thinking about six months to a year ahead of time in different parts of the world to bring the necessary elements of national and international power to bear to prevent future Iraqs and future Afghanistans.” And in a major speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars in August 2009, President Barack Obama also declared that “one of the best ways to lead our troops wisely is to prevent the conflicts that cost American blood and treasure tomorrow.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

42. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan

Author:: Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The run-up to the announcement of President Obama's new "Af-Pak" strategy provoked a flurry of "new solutions" to the conflict. Promoting reconciliation with the Taliban is one idea that has reappeared—even in the administration's own White Paper on U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. While this notion would rightly have been considered ridiculous a few years ago, many in Europe and the United States obviously believe that stabilizing Afghanistan may require just that. In fact, it would be the worst approach at this time—and it is destined to fail so long as key Taliban constituents are convinced that military victory in Afghanistan is inevitable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban

43. Confronting the Hydra: Big Problems with Small Wars

Author:: Mark O'Neill
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia needs to worry a little less about the small problems it has with big wars, and address some of the big problems that it has with small wars. Small wars, such as insurgencies, became the most prevalent form of conflict globally in the middle of the 20th century. The 2009 Australian Defence White Paper predicts that intrastate conflict will remain the most common form of war in the period to 2030. Australia has a long record of involvement in such conflicts, although participation has always been a matter of choice. But the fact that these are wars of choice for Australia, and that it frequently only plays a bit part, does not mean that they are insignificant in cost and political impact. And history demonstrates that small wars of choice can become wars of necessity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Australia

44. Afghanistan Report: A Ten-Year Framework for the Future

Author:: Ashraf Ghani
Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Describing the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan as increasingly perilous, President Obama has committed his administration to enhancing the military, governance, and economic capacity of the two countries. On March 27, 2009, he announced plans to launch a new strategy in the region: To succeed, we and our friends and allies must reverse the Taliban's gains and promote a more capable and accountable Afghan government. . . . Afghanistan has an elected government, but it is undermined by corruption and has difficulty delivering basic services to its people. The economy is undercut by a booming narcotics trade that encourages criminality and funds the insurgency. The people of Afghanistan seek the promise of a better future. Yet once again, they have seen the hope of a new day darkened by violence and uncertainty.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Military Strategy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

45. Dealing with Damascus: Seeking a Greater Return on U.S.-Syria Relations

Author:: Mona Yacoubian and Scott Lasensky
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Punctuated by conflict in Iraq, an ascendant ran, and continued instability in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, rising volatility in the Middle East threatens U.S. interests in the region. Meanwhile, sectarianism, al-Qaeda–inspired terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) all serve as troubling overlays to this complex mix. Mired in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has yet to develop a comprehensive strategic framework that addresses these interrelated challenges. Instead, U.S. policy has been largely crisis-driven, attempting to put out fires by confronting issues on an ad hoc basis rather than seeking to respond to the underlying forces and tensions that catalyze conflict and instability in the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

46. Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk

Author:: Monty G. Marshall
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: A public debate over the threat posed by weak, fragile, failing, and failed states and what can or should be done about them has become increasing visible and vocal since the attacks of September 11, 2001. As President George W. Bush declared in his 2002 National Security Strategy report: “America is now threatened less by conquering states than ... by failing ones.” This debate has grown particularly acute as the United States' prolonged military response to the war on global terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq has revealed the difficulties of controlling militancy and extremism by direct military intervention and enforced democratic change. The challenges associated with weak or failing states have garnered increase d attention by the policy community, but major differences about how to assess the level of risk in any given case remain.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Development, Diplomacy, Government, and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and America

47. "The Kitsch of War: Misappropriating Sun Tzu for an American Imperial Hypermasculinity

Author:: L.H.M. Ling and Ching-Chane Hwang
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:: Sun Tzu seems more popular than ever. The Bush Administration attributes its successful invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq to tactics in The Art of War such as “shock and awe” and “decapitation.” However, neither exists in Sun Tzu's manual. More seriously, this misappropriation reinforces an imperial hypermasculinity in US foreign policy given its neoliberal logic of “conversion or discipline” for Self/Other relations. Rival camps of imperial hypermasculinity arise in reaction, thereby rationalizing the US Self's resort to such in the first place. Locking the world into ceaseless rounds of hostility between opposed enemies, we argue, contradicts Sun Tzu's purpose. The Art of War sought to transform, not annihilate, the enemy as mandated by the cosmo-moral, dialectical world order that governed Sun Tzu's time. In misappropriating Sun Tzu, then, the Bush Administration turns The Art of War into mere kitsch.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

48. Business as Usual: An Assessment of Donald Rumsfeld's Transformation Vision and Transformation's Prospects for the Future

Author:: Mark G. Czelusta
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:: Donald Rumsfeld's vision of a transformed United States military has been discussed by many and understood by few. It is no surprise that this lack of understanding has resulted in both significant simplifications and sweeping generalizations, to include the Reuters headline noted above. Even the term, “Rumsfeld's Transformation,” accounts for neither the historical influences that led to his vision, nor the multiple components of this transformational effort.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia

49. The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry

Author:: Barnett R. Rubin and Sara Batmanglich
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Afghanistan is one of several contexts in which the long-term common interests of the U.S. and Iran have been over- shadowed by the animus originating in the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran and the Iranian revolution of 1979, to the detriment of the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Afghanistan. This confronta- tion has served the interests of the Pakistan military, Taliban, and al-Qaida. Re-establishing the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan would provide significant additional leverage over Pakistan, on whose territory the leadership of both the Taliban and al-Qaida are now found. During the first half of the Cold War (until the 1978 coup in Afghanistan and the 1979 revolution in Iran), Afghanistan was a non-aligned country with a Soviet-trained army wedged between the USSR and U.S. allies. In the 1970s, under the Nixon Doctrine, the U.S. supported efforts by the Shah of Iran to use his post-1973 oil wealth to sup- port efforts by Afghan President Muhammad Daoud to lessen Kabul’s dependence on the USSR. This ended with the successive overthrow of both Daoud and the Shah in 1978 and 1979. A U.S. close partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emerged as the primary means of maintaining U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and its eastern flank. Support for Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan and an Islamist-oriented military regime in Pakistan formed parts of this strategy to repulse the USSR from its occupation of Afghanistan, begun in late 1979, and to isolate Iran.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

50. US Policy on Small Arms Transfers: A Human Rights Perspective

Author:: Susan Waltz
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:: From Somalia and Afghanistan to Bosnia, Haiti, Colombia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Congo, small arms and light weapons were a common feature of the human rights calamities of the 1990's. More than a hundred low-intensity conflicts flared across the globe in that final decade of the bloodiest century, and virtually all of them were fought with small arms and light weaponry. Hand grenades, rocket-propelled grenades and bazookas, mortars, machine guns, and shoulder-fired missiles were the common weapons of warfare, along with the ubiquitous AK- 47--as readily slung over the shoulder of a 14 year old boy as a 40 year old man. Human rights and humanitarian organizations pondered the evidence: there was an inescapable linkage between the abuses they sought to curb, and the prevalence of these easy to handle, durable, and imminently portable weapons. In many instances the weapons were used as direct instruments of repression and devastation. In others, armed groups and government-sponsored militia used them to facilitate assaults with cruder weapons, spread fear, and create insecurity that effectively deprived people of their livelihood. Ironically, none of the countries in turmoil produced their own small arms. Behind the plethora of weapons lurked shadowy arms dealers looking for a profit, indifferent to the public's moral outrage and UN-imposed arms embargoes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Bosnia, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, and Somalia

51. EU Policy in the South Causasus: A View from Azerbaijan

Author:: Elkhan Nuriyev
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Since the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the EU in January 2007, the South Caucasus has become a region of direct concern to the EU's strategy in its wider neighbourhood. This study examines the trends affecting EU policies in the South Caucasus, with a specific focus on EU–Azerbaijan relations. It argues that in the three main areas in which Azerbaijan affects Europe's interests – cooperation in the energy sector, democratisation and conflict resolution – so far the EU has engaged well on a regional energy strategy, but less so on democratic reforms and almost not at all on conflict settlement in Nagorno Karabakh. The study concludes that the EU needs to balance its involvement in all three areas, especially given the deeper democratic changes it wishes to see in Azerbaijan, with a list of recommendations for doing so.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Asia, and Azerbaijan

52. Opium and Afghanistan: Reassessing U.S. Counternarcotics Strategy

Author:: John A. Glaze
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Cultivation and production of opium in Afghanistan have skyrocketed since the Taliban were toppled in 2001 such that Afghanistan now supplies 92 percent of the world's illicit opium. The expanding opium trade is threatening to destabilize the Afghan government and turn the conflict-ridden country back into a safe haven for drug traffickers and terrorists. This paper examines the nature of the opium problem in Afghanistan and analyzes the allied strategy to counter this growing crisis. In analyzing the current counternarcotics strategy, it points out pitfalls including the counterproductive aspects of opium eradication. Finally, changes to the strategy are proposed, which include increasing troop levels and eliminating national restrictions, substantially increasing financial aid, deemphasizing opium eradication, focusing on long-term alternative livelihoods, aggressively pursuing drug kingpins and corrupt government officials, and exploring the possibility of Afghanistan's entry to the licit opium market.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, and War on Drugs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

53. The Emerging Pattern of Geopolitics

Author:: Peter W. Rodman
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The theme of this conference is especially important. Iraq and Afghanistan, important as they are, do not exhaust the strategic landscape. There is a global strategic environment, which presents many challenges in many different regions of the world that bear close attention in their own right. In fact, that global environment forms the context in which we should be thinking about Iraq and Afghanistan. One of the reasons it is so important how well we do in Iraq and Afghanistan is its impact on American credibility—a precious commodity that will affect our success in these other theaters.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, and America

54. An Introduction to Theater Strategy and Regional Security

Author:: Clarence J. Bouchat
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This overview of theater strategy and theater security cooperation is a primer on one of the most important tools the U.S. military uses to engage other countries, deter unwanted actions, and defend U.S. and friendly nation interests. To be effective, theater strategy and theater security cooperation must be derived from and consistently linked to national and multinational strategic guidance and policy, and formulated to meet the requirements found in each region. To attain the combatant commander's strategic security goals, proper support for joint operation plans through organizational structure, force projection, sustainment, readiness training, and force development input is essential. Theater security cooperation directly supports national goals at the regional level, and enhances military operations by obviating the need for military action, or by preparing the environment better for U.S. military intervention, should it be necessary. Theater strategy is an important part of realizing national strategy around the world, and theater security cooperation is not only one of the most powerful tools in attaining the goals of theater strategy, but, through its ability to obviate the need for combat, a cost effective tool as well.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Climate Change
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

55. Shaping Commitment: Resolving Canada's Strategy Gap in Afghanistan and Beyond

Author:: Craig Hilton
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Release of Canada's first-ever National Security Policy (NSP) in 2004, followed by the International (Foreign) Policy Statement and Defence Policy Review in 2005, has publicly articulated Canada's principal security interests for the post-September 11, 2001 (9/11), world. Nevertheless, the realities of Canada's present engagement in Afghanistan have highlighted a gap between stated national security and foreign policy goals on one hand, and the Canadian military, diplomatic, and development effort in theater, on the other. National interests and values, articulated within the NSP and the International Policy Statement, are insufficient to frame the context for such a complex endeavor. Only a clearly defined strategy based upon rigorous analysis of ends, ways, and means and assessment of risk can enable informed national and political debate, provide the required guidance for campaign planning among government departments, and determine Canada's preferred stake in the wider international arena, including the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). Recommendations are provided with respect to resolving Canada's strategy gap in both the immediate and longer term.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Canada

56. Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era

Author:: Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Taliban insurgents and their Al Qaeda allies, once thought defeated in Afghanistan, are regaining strength. Regrouped and reorganized, better equipped and financed, and more sophisticated tactically, they are threatening both the reconstruction process and the U.S.-led coalition forces on the ground. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, sixty-six U.S. troops were killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2005, more than in the previous four years combined.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Taliban

57. Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy

Author:: Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and all that followed, Afghans and the handful of internationals working on Afghanistan could hardly have imagined being fortunate enough to confront today's problems. The Bonn Agreement of December 2001 providing for the “reestablishment of permanent government institutions” in Afghanistan was fully completed with the adoption of a constitution in January 2004, the election of President Hamid Karzai in October 2004, and the formation of the National Assembly in December 2005.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

58. The Neo Con: The Bush Defense Record by the Numbers - An Analysis of the Data Behind the Bush Approach to National Security

Author:: Sharon Burke and Harlan Greer
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: Like all presidents before him, President George W. Bush came to office promising to keep America safe, strong, secure, and the leader of the world. There are some who believe that the President has kept this promise. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and others inside the Bush Administration have continued to maintain that America's national security strategy—and in particular, the strategy in Iraq—has been successful. But there are many who disagree—even leading conservatives. William Kristol, one of the intellectual leaders behind the Bush foreign policy, now regards America's national security situation as dire. Several retired senior military officers have leveled a barrage of criticism at Bush, with calls for the firing of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, breaking a tradition among retired military against publicly criticizing the commander-in-chief.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Iraq, America, Iran, and North Korea

59. In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conflict Capabilities

Author:: William L. Nash, Brent Scowcroft, and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: From Mogadishu to Mosul, the United States has undertaken six major nation-building operations around the world since 1993. The challenges of terrorism, failed states, and proliferation indicate this trend will only continue. Today, in Iraq, the United States carries the bulk of the nation-building burden. Some 135,000 U.S. troops remain on the ground, at an approximate cost of $50 billion per year. Nearly four years after forcing out the Taliban in Afghanistan, 9,000 NATO forces and 17,000 U.S. troops remain in that country to secure the peace and continue the hunt for al-Qaeda.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Taliban

60. Integrating Democracy Promotion Into U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:: Michele Dunne
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: BETWEEN 2002 AND 2004, THE UNITED STATES ACCORDED new prominence to political and economic reform and democratization as policy goals in the Middle East. Continuing that trend and translating rhetoric into effective strategies both depend on whether reform and democratization become fully integrated into the U.S. policy agenda in the region. Can the United States promote change at the risk of instability in the region while it remains dependent on petroleum from Arab countries? Can it pursue Arab–Israeli peace and democratization at the same time? Can the United States still secure needed military and counterterrorism cooperation if it antagonizes friendly regimes by promoting democratization as well? Is it feasible for the United States to promote democratization effectively amid widespread grievances against the war in Iraq and serious questions about U.S. human rights practices there and in Afghanistan?
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

61. A Way Out of the Mesopotamian Morass? The Case for a Partitioned Iraq

Author:: Ivan Eland
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Independent Institute
Abstract:: The United States has plunged into an Iraqi swamp. The swashbuckling victory in the first Gulf War led to the most egregious sin that can be made in the military affairs—hubris and underestimation of the enemy. The U.S. and Soviet superpowers made the same mistake respectively in Vietnam in the sixties and seventies and Afghanistan in the eighties. But as those quagmires fade from memory, government officials apparently have to relearn the same lessons.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Soviet Union, and Vietnam

62. From Yugoslavia to Iraq: Russia's Foreign Policy and the Effects of Multipolarity

Author:: Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to analyze the evolution and political implications of Russia's doctrine of multipolarity. Multipolarity emerged as one of the earliest doctrinal solutions to the post-Soviet Russian foreign policy dilemma, and has remained essential for Russia's strategic behavior since the early 1990s. The multipolarity doctrine describes the post-Cold War world and Russia's place in it. As I argue in this study, Russian “multipolarity” – (the idea of the multipolar world; the vision of Russia as one of its 'poles'; and the understanding of the principles of international politics in the strict terms of realpolitik) is not an ideological resource for Russia's foreign policy but rather, a result of learning how to secure the country' s international status given the scarcity of foreign policy resources available, and the drastic change in the international institutional position of Russia. To sum up the central argument of this study: the multipolarity of Russian foreign policy – both a doctrinal strategy and foreign policy practice – has evolved as a template-like foreign policy approach to solve Russia's strategic dilemma since the demise of the Soviet Union: how to secure its place in the new international structure and compensate for the loss of the international arrangements that disappeared with Soviet might and the bipolar international system as a whole.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Soviet Union, and Balkans

63. How the Axis of Evil Metaphor Changes Iranian Images of the USA

Author:: Daniel Heradstveit and G. Matthew Bonham
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The respondents feared an American attack, and regarded their membership in «the Axis of Evil» as a stab in the back after Iranian help in Afghanistan. This demonisation was seen overwhelmingly in terms of American geopolitical designs, ignorance and downright irrationality – an expansionist superpower that is dangerously out of control. The WTC attack initially caused a strengthening of Iranian national unity and a more coherent foreign policy, but most of the respondents regard «the Axis of Evil» as killing the nascent dialogue with the USA stone dead and coming as a godsend to the conservatives and the ultras.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

64. Second Annual Report

Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The Commission considerably broadened its activities in its second full year, monitoring religious-freedom violations worldwide and increasing the number of countries it would study in depth. In July, the Commission wrote to the Secretary of State to recommend that Laos, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan be added to the list of “countries of particular concern” as provided for in the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). It also recommended that Burma, China, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, the Milosevic regime in Serbia and the Taliban in Afghanistan remain on the list. In addition, it wrote that India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are serious violators of religious freedom deserving careful State Department monitoring; it also expressed concerns about sectarian violence in Indonesia and Nigeria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Taliban, and Vietnam

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS