Search

Begin New Search Content Type Working Paper

61. Welfare losses, preferences for redistribution, and political participation: Evidence from the United Kingdom’s age of austerity

Author:
Patricia Justino, Bruno Martorano, and Laura Metzger
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of austerity on forms of political participation—including voting, appealing for reform, and peaceful protesting—and the role of preferences for redistribution in shaping the relationship between individual exposure to austerity and political participation. The paper focuses on the case of the United Kingdom (UK) where, between 2011 and 2019, wide-ranging austerity policies were introduced to deal with high public debt in the aftermath of the 2007–08 financial crisis. Cuts to government spending on public investment, services, and social protection, especially during the initial fiscal consolidation phase of 2011–15, led to significant welfare losses for the population. We provide evidence from observational microeconomic data and a large-scale online experiment in the UK showing that individual exposure to welfare losses from austerity increases political participation and strengthens preferences for government redistribution. The experimental data suggests that changes in individual preferences for redistribution significantly shape the effect of austerity on political participation.
Topic:
Austerity, Welfare, Redistribution, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

62. Sanction-busting through tax havens

Author:
Kerim Can Kavakli, Giovanna Marcolongo, and Diego Zambiasi
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Financial sanctions, which aim to economically hurt a target by restricting its access to financial assets and markets, require the ability to identify who owns an asset. Although experts have long claimed that offshore financial centres that offer secrecy (‘tax havens’) undermine sanctions by hiding ownership information, so far data limitations have prevented a rigorous test of this claim. We overcome this constraint using data from the Bank of International Settlements and the Offshore Leaks Database and conduct the first systematic analysis of the role that tax havens play in financial sanction evasion. Our main finding is that sanction targets reduce their funds in sanctioning countries while increasing their funds in tax havens. This displacement effect is stronger when the sanction coalition includes the United States or comprises more FATF or OECD members. Lastly, whether a tax haven is in the sanctioning coalition does not seem to make a difference. These findings confirm that target countries evade sanctions by moving large portions of their funds from sanctioning countries to tax havens. More broadly, our paper highlights a novel and geostrategically important role of tax havens in global finance.
Topic:
Sanctions, Financial Markets, Leaks, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Employment transitions with high unemployment and a small informal sector: Examining worker flows during normal and recessionary periods in South Africa

Author:
Shakeba Foster
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines employment transitions in the South African labour market. Using the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series, it analyses flows between the formal sector, informal sector, and unemployment, paying specific attention to how these flows differ during recessions. It explicitly considers heterogeneity within the informal sector by separately accounting for wage employment and self-employment as well as upper-tier and lower-tier informal sector segments. Transition probabilities are estimated using dynamic discrete choice models, and the extent to which transitions affect changes in real wages is estimated using a linear model. The results provide evidence of heterogeneity within the informal sector and segmentation between wage employment and self-employment. They also show a lag in the employment impacts following a recession. Finally, the paper provides suggestive evidence that the upper-tier segment of the informal sector acts as a buffer during recessionary periods by absorbing labour that would otherwise be unemployed or relegated to precarious lower-tier informal employment.
Topic:
Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Recession
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

64. More information, better knowledge? The effects of information campaigns on aid beneficiaries’ knowledge of aid projects

Author:
Alexander De Juan, Paul Hofman, and Carlo Koos
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Aid beneficiaries know very little about development interventions in their own communities. This lack of transparency and information is likely to reduce beneficiaries’ ability and willingness to become active in local development. It may also dampen intended aid effects on beneficiaries’ political and social attitudes. Can targeted information campaigns strengthen beneficiaries’ understanding of aid projects? We test the effects of two types of interventions: the provision of information only and the combination of information and feedback opportunities. We embed these interventions in a panel survey in rural Mali. Our information treatment is highly customized to specific local aid projects in respondents’ locations and corresponds to beneficiaries’ ex-ante information demands. Nonetheless, two months after the campaign, we find only small treatment effects on respondents’ project-specific knowledge (type, location) and no effects on their procedural knowledge (selection mechanisms). Only people with favourable ex-ante views of the state’s rule adherence and self-identified non-beneficiaries tend to update their views on procedural knowledge. Finally, we find that the combined information and feedback treatment has an effect on respondents’ subjective knowledge, which we interpret as promising mechanisms for engaging and identifying with aid projects.
Topic:
Fragile States, Development Aid, and Information
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:
Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:
Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. European aid to the MENA region after the Arab uprisings: A window of opportunity missed

Author:
Thilo Bodenstein and Mark Furness
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
European official development assistance to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries increased sharply after 2011, ostensibly in support of the social, economic, and above all political changes demanded by the Arab uprisings. The subsequent turn to development policies driven by security and anti-migration agendas, especially following the Syria refugee crisis in the autumn of 2015, raises the question whether initial expressions of support for democratic transformation expressed by European donors were ever backed by concrete measures. This paper discusses this question with an exploratory review of the policy and practice dimensions of four European MENA aid programmes between 2011 and 2016. The policy dimension is explored via an analysis of available documents from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK. The practice dimension is discussed with reference to OECD-DAC aid data on bilateral aid to MENA countries, focusing on aid in the social infrastructure and services sector, and in particular on the government and civil society sub-category. Our analysis reveals that, while all donors promised to support democracy in MENA countries, none had a clear strategy for doing so via their development cooperation. At the practice level, while programmes and projects were aimed at supporting change in specific contexts, increases in aid were mostly unrelated to political change. This indicates a preference for avoiding risks, which served to underpin the region’s political and socio-economic status quo. Accordingly, European donors missed an opportunity to test whether their aid could make a difference in supporting democratic transformation in the MENA. The social, economic, and political tensions behind the Arab uprisings remain unresolved more than a decade on, meaning that there is likely a need to learn lessons from the period following 2011.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

67. India’s economic development since independence: An interpretative survey

Author:
Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
When India became a republic in 1950, the economy was primarily agrarian, with threefifths of output originating from agriculture. In the sixty years since independence, there has been a significant transformation of economic activity away from agriculture, with less than one-fifth of output now originating from agriculture and the rest from manufacturing and services. Since the 1980s, along with structural change, there has been strong economic growth, till 2010, followed by a period of declining growth. In this paper, we describe India’s economic foundation, paying particular interest to the processes of economic growth and structural change. We begin with a brief discussion of the patterns of growth and structural change since independence. We then discuss the economic policies that have underpinned India’s economic development. Next, we discuss the evolution of the three main economic sectors—agriculture, industry, and services. We then provide a summary of India’s regional performance. We end with a discussion of India’s economic performance in the post-2014 period.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

68. India’s development cooperation in Africa: The case of ‘Solar Mamas’ who bring light

Author:
Veda Vaidyanathan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines multiple facets of New Delhi’s development cooperation with countries in Africa and argues that grassroots organizations in India that find innovative, low-cost technological solutions to developmental challenges can help governments and multilateral agencies craft inclusive, sustainable policies. The aim of this paper is threefold. First, to understand the major actors, instruments, themes, and mechanisms that make up India’s Development cooperation towards countries in Africa and how these usher in a new dimension of ‘South–South cooperation’. Second, the paper will explore the role of grassroots organizations that have found localized solutions in India that then export their learnings to other geographies and how they craft a unique role for themselves in India’s broader development cooperation framework. To explore this idea further, the paper will utilize the case study of a community-based grassroots organization, Barefoot College, Tilonia, founded by Sanjit Bunker Roy in 1972, and its solar programme. The college trains women from unelectrified, remote communities to become solar engineers who then return to their rural villages with the ability to harness solar power, earning them the title of ‘Solar Mamas’. Third, this paper argues that the uneven, fragmented Indian experience of designing development assistance programmes provides an important non-western perspective that can help decision makers craft policies for an era beyond aid.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa and India

69. Fiscal dependence on extractive revenues: Measurement and concepts

Author:
Kyle McNabb
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The aims of this paper are twofold. It firstly identifies and discusses the extent to which public revenues from natural resources are adequately captured in existing cross-country revenue databases, before exploring the extent to which such data can be used to estimate countries’ fiscal dependence on extractives. I first discuss key conceptual, definitional and measurement issues, before comparing the coverage of key existing databases, notably the UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD). I then propose a new measure of fiscal dependence on extractive revenues (FDE). Whilst a number of existing studies have attempted to better quantify countries’ resource dependence, to the best of my knowledge none has yet proposed an indicator that ties the idea of dependence to any outcomes. The FDE simply calculates the extent to which extractive-producing countries can fund day-to-day government spending with non-extractive revenues. I find that the FDE is strongly correlated with existing measures of extractive dependence but can ultimately tell us more about countries’ fiscal positions and resulting vulnerability to shocks to revenue or government spending.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Extractive Industries, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and India

70. The violent legacy of fascism: Neofascist political violence in Italy, 1969–88

Author:
Stefano Costalli, Daniele Guariso, Patricia Justino, and Andrea Ruggeri
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We still have limited knowledge about the long-term effects of fascism on European democracies. European countries experienced cycles of violence between the 1960s and 1980s. Can such violence be explained by legacies of mobilization during fascism? We study whether and how the Italian fascist experience of the 1920s affected political violence during the 1970s and 1980s. We created an original dataset of conflictual events at a subnational level in Italy. Using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions, we find that local membership of the fascist party in 1922—before the institutionalization of the fascist regime—predicts neofascist political violence at the provincial level more than 40 years later. New windows of opportunity facilitate the resurfacing of local fascist legacies: in the months when a new Minister of Interior is appointed, we observe higher levels of neofascist violence in provinces where the early presence of the fascist party was stronger.
Topic:
Terrorism, History, Fascism, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

71. Assessment of institutional set-up of results measurement and reporting systems for non-sovereign operations in development finance institutions

Author:
Patrick Mabuza, Francis H. Kemeze, Oluwatoba J. Omotilewa, Mamadou Bah, and Btissam Benkerroum
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Development finance institutions (DFIs) foster sustainable development through financing, advisory services, and technical assistance. They complement public investments in developing and underserved markets to unlock development opportunities and deliver development results. Whereas DFIs’ missions are known among practitioners, their development achievements are often less understood. Consequently, DFIs have developed different results measurement and reporting systems to document the impacts of their interventions. This includes recent efforts to harmonize development impact indicators for results measurement and reporting. However, less is known about methodologies used in development outcomes assessments, or institutional set-ups for measuring and reporting these outcomes. This hampers knowledge on what works or does not work from a development finance perspective, preventing feedback mechanisms for DFIs to learn from prior interventions, mitigate risks, and ultimately improve subsequent interventions. Using a newly developed integration index score of hard versus soft integration of results measurement and reporting systems, and primary and secondary data from eleven such systems within DFIs, this study examines the set-up and effectiveness of different results reporting systems and mechanisms currently in place in DFIs. Findings reveal that although all interviewed DFIs measure anticipated (ex-ante) and ex-post development outcomes, only 27 per cent operate a fully integrated results measurement and reporting system that permits a 360- degree feedback loop for development effectiveness.
Topic:
Development, Finance, and Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. Absolute or relative: perceptions of inequality among young adults in Mozambique

Author:
Giulia Barletta, Ines A. Ferreira, and Vincenzo Salvucci
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Different concepts of inequality lead to different positions in discussions about whether economic growth leads to increasing inequality. This study investigates how over 1,100 young adults in Mozambique perceive inequality and whether their perceptions are based on relative or absolute terms. It follows the line of work which examines attitudes (perceptions and preferences) towards different distributional axioms, and focuses on scale and translation invariance. Most of our respondents believe that inequality in their neighbourhood is too high and that circumstances beyond their control explain why some people are poor. We conclude that, while some respondents think in absolute terms, many do not agree with either the scale-invariance or the translation-invariance axioms, and there is great variation depending on the scenario presented to the respondents. We find some correlation between their way of thinking and gender, but no clear link with level of education and type of employment.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Economic Growth, Youth, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

73. Building resilience knowledge for sustainable development: Insights from development studies

Author:
Albert Sanghoon Park
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores how the concept of resilience has been used in development studies. Set amidst the rise of resilience in sustainable development, it offers insights for scholars and policy-makers, alike. Sampling 419 resilience-oriented journal articles from 2017–22, it uses Kuhnian paradigms to analyse development knowledge production. This produces three key findings. First is the absence of a coherent resilience paradigm (with shared definitions, problems, and methods) in development studies. Second is its use, instead, by pre-existing paradigms as a theoretical add-on to better address complexity and/or as a new buzzword to repackage prior arguments. Third are latent possibilities for resilience as both a rallying call and siren song in sustainable development. Here, resilience discourses open vital space for development cooperation and climate action. However, its outcomes will depend on whether we can first understand precisely what we talk about when we talk about resilience.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. Migration out of poverty: The case of post-war migration in Mozambique

Author:
Maimuna Ibraimo and Eva-Maria Egger
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Internal migration plays an important role in the economic development of individuals, their families, and their country. This study describes Mozambique’s most common migration patterns from 1992 until 2017 using data from three population censuses. We focus on the most important moves between regions, provinces, and rural and urban areas. Further, we document the characteristics of migrants to assess selection patterns. In the final step, we estimate the relationship between migration and multidimensional poverty by applying inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA). We find that migration in Mozambique was very high, especially between rural areas, after the war ended as people returned from displacement. Still, it is very low in the most recent period. Recently, migration has been the main contributor to the urbanization of the greater Maputo area (capital city). Migrants appear to be positively selected on education, and are, on average, less likely to be poor.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, Displacement, Rural, Economic Development, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

75. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:
Marine Gassier
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

76. ‘Ten pound touts’: post-conflict trust and the legacy of counterinsurgency in Northern Ireland

Author:
Kristin M. Bakke and Kit Rickard
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the legacies of wartime rebel governance and counterinsurgency tactics. Insurgents rely on civilian support for resources, information, and cover. To defeat insurgents, the state attempts to extract information from communities where support for insurgents is highest. We argue that strong norms against civilian collaboration emerge in these areas, which may have long legacies for local community trust. To explore these legacies, we conduct a case study of post-conflict Northern Ireland. While both Republican and Loyalist paramilitary groups established wartime institutions, the counterinsurgency targeted Republican groups in urban areas with the use of informants. Drawing on secondary literature and a survey, we show that strong norms against informers—‘touts’—persist long after the end of the conflict in Republican strongholds. These areas show lower levels of local community trust than their Loyalist counterparts. The Northern Irish case demonstrates the detrimental effects of dynamics likely to shape other post-conflict states.
Topic:
Counterinsurgency, Governance, Civilians, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:
Europe and Northern Ireland

77. Trade sanctions and informal employment

Author:
Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi and Robert Nisticò
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines how trade sanctions affect the allocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse the case of the unexpected and unprecedented trade sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012. We use a difference-in-differences approach and compare the probability of working in the informal sector before and after 2012 for individuals employed in industries with pre-existing different levels of exposure to international trade. Combining employment data from the Iranian Labour Force Survey and trade data from Iran’s Customs Administration database for the years 2008–14, we find that workers employed in industries initially facing higher exposure to trade are significantly more likely to experience informal employment in the years after 2012 than workers employed in industries with lower trade exposure. This result suggests that, in the short run, the informal sector may absorb a significant fraction of workers displaced by the trade shock caused by the sanctions. We estimate that the increase in informal employment is highest for poorly educated workers, highlighting the unequal labour market consequences of trade sanctions. We exclude that industries differentially exposed to international trade were already following a different trend in the share of informal employment in the years prior to 2012, thus providing empirical support for the validity of our identification strategy. Moreover, we show that our main result holds when accounting for potential sorting issues by an instrumental variable approach. Our findings shed light on a potentially important dimension of labour reallocation whereby trade sanctions can affect the economy of the target country. They also provide important implications for policies designed to address informal employment and to assist trade-displaced workers.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Sanctions, Employment, Trade, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

78. Gender and poverty as a feminist foreign policy priority

Author:
Joanne Crawford
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
This issues paper is dedicated to the late Sylvia Chant, who named household-level measurement as a barrier to evidence related to the ‘feminization of poverty.’ Her work underpinned the commitment of the author and International Women‘s Development Agency (IWDA) to change the way that poverty is measured so that its gendered dimensions are visible. As IWDA worked with othersi to create an alternative quantitative measure of poverty, Chant’s focus on the “feminization of responsibility and obligation – women’s increasing liability for dealing with poverty (responsibility), and their progressively less choice other than to do so (obligation)” ii informed the inclusion of voice, unpaid work and time use as dimensions of gendersensitive measurement of multidimensional poverty.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Poverty, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. Peacebuilding and feminist foreign policy

Author:
Federico Casolari and Patricia Sango Pollard
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
In this paper, Dr Frederica Caso from La Trobe University and independent researcher Patricia Sango Pollard examine the added value of a Feminist Foreign Policy (FFP) approach to peacebuilding in the Pacific by looking at the case of Australia and Solomon Islands. In the strategic competition over allies, a FFP will promote a value-based approach that can attract and secure key partners and bolster the idea of the Pacific Family.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Feminism, Intersectionality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Australia

80. US strategy and force posture for an era of nuclear tripolarity

Author:
Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The term “nuclear tripolarity” describes a world in which China has joined the United States and Russia as a leading nuclear power. As China modernizes its existing nuclear forces and deploys new weapons, it is on track to roughly double its deployed nuclear arsenal in the next few years—from approximately 350 to 700 deliverable warheads. The US Department of Defense projects that China will go further, expanding its arsenal to at least 1,500 warheads by 2035.1 At those force levels, China’s arsenal would be comparable to US and Russian deployed nuclear forces, currently capped at 1,550 by the New START Treaty.2 What are the consequences of emerging tripolarity for US nuclear strategy and force posture? If the United States retains its current approach to nuclear force planning, the growth of China’s arsenal (and the ongoing modernization of Russia’s nuclear weapons) will likely compel the United States to significantly increase its own arsenal. The easiest way to do so would be to upload one to two thousand additional warheads from US reserves onto existing delivery systems when the New START treaty expires in 2026. Unfortunately, a major increase in US forces would likely mark just another step in an intensifying arms competition among the three leading nuclear powers, since China and Russia would then feel pressure to respond.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, Deterrence, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America