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11101. Sovereign Bankruptcy in the European Union in the Comparative Perspective

Author:
Leszek Balcerowicz
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper distinguishes four alternative sovereign debt resolution mechanisms: pure market solutions, modified market solutions, crisis lending by the IMF and other institutions, and the proposed Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM). It is hard to find—at the general level of analysis—the unique advantages of SDRM. The assessment of the European Stabilization Mechanism will ultimately depend on its operation, especially whether it will be a tool of subsidizing countries in debt distress or an instrument of fiscal crisis lending. The present fiscal problems in the eurozone are due to the erosion of fiscal discipline and not to the lack of strong compensatory transfers within the eurozone. The right model to look at the conditions for the stability of the eurozone is not a single state but the gold standard–type system, a system of sovereign states with a (de facto) single currency. Based on this analogy and considering modern developments, three types of measures are needed to safeguard the stability of the eurozone: (1) measures that would reduce the procyclicality of the macroeconomic policies and of the economy; (2) reforms that would help the eurozone economies grow out of increased public debt; and (3) steps to increase the flexibility of the economy so that it can deal with the future shocks in a better way.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

11102. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead?

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jared C. Woollacott
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and China

11103. Chief of Mission Authority as a Model for National Security Integration

Author:
Edward Marks and Christopher J. Lamb
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The inability of the President of the United States to delegate executive authority for integrating the efforts of departments and agencies on priority missions is a major shortcoming in the way the national security system of the U.S. Government functions. Statutorily assigned missions combined with organizational cultures create “stovepipes” that militate against integrated operations. This obstacle to “unity of effort” has received great attention since 9/11 but continues to adversely affect government operations in an era of increasingly multidisciplinary challenges, from counterproliferation to counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. Presidents have tried various approaches to solving the problem: National Security Council committees, “lead agencies,” and “czars,” but none have proven effective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

11104. Drug Production and Trafficking, Counterdrug Policies, and Security and Governance in Afghanistan

Author:
Jonathan P. Caulkins, Mark A.R Kleiman, and Jonathan D. Kulick
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Drug production and drug trafficking are effects as well as causes of political instability. They flourish under weak states and sustain that weakness by financing insurgency and warlordism and by intimidating or corrupting the officials of enforcement agencies and security forces. Afghanistan is a primary instance of this complex of social and political pathologies.
Topic:
Security, Government, War on Drugs, Counterinsurgency, Narcotics Trafficking, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

11105. Globalization and Scarcity: Multilateralism for a world with limits

Author:
Alex Evans
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Globalization has improved the living standards of hundreds of millions of people – but growing resource scarcity means it risks becoming a victim of its own success. Left unaddressed, scarcity of food, energy, water, land and other key 'natural assets' has the potential to trigger intensifying zero sum competition between states – in the process, increasing poverty, state fragility, economic instability, inflation, and strategic resource competition between major powers.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Natural Resources, Water, and Food
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11106. Conjuring Spirits from the Vasty Deep: A User's Guide to Proposals for Strengthening UN Civilian Capacity in Peace Operations

Author:
Eric Morris
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Although civilian specialists in peace operations have been in short supply, the same cannot be said of proposals to alleviate the problem. Governments, non - governmental organizations, think tanks, and even the United Nations itself have issued reports to address the civilian deficit in peace operations. Most of these papers acknowledge that there has been halting improvement over time, but express concern over a wide array of gaps and shortages in response capacity. Almost all agree that demand will continue to outrun supply. Almost all warn that failure to close the gaps and address the shortages will call into question the credibility and legitimacy not only of international peace operations but also of the fragile national and local institutions that these operations hope to build.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

11107. North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Complex

Author:
Siegfried S. Hecker
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
On November 12, during my most recent visit to the Yongbyon Nuclear Complex with Stanford University colleagues John W. Lewis and Robert Carlin, we were shown a 25 to 30 megawatt-electric (MWe) experimental light-water reactor (LWR) in the early stages of construction. It is North Korea's first attempt at LWR technology and we were told it is proceeding with strictly indigenous resources and talent. The target date for operation was said to be 2012, which appears much too optimistic.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

11108. Beyond the 'New Horizon': Proceedings from the UN Peacekeeping Future Challenges Seminar, Geneva, 23–24 June 2010

Author:
Cedric H. de Coning, Thierry Tardy, and Andreas Øien Stensland
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The past decade has seen a nine-fold increase in UN peacekeeping operations. With over 123,000 deployed personnel across 16 missions, and at a cost of approximately USD 8 billion per year, the scale of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping today is unprecedented. While prior reforms have enabled growth and helped to define the core strengths of operations, UN peacekeeping now finds itself, once again, at a crossroads: 'The scale and complexity of peacekeeping today are straining its personnel, administrative and support machinery.' The peacekeeping partnership is under stress – among contributors, the Security Council, and the UN Secretariat. Several current peacekeeping missions are deployed beyond their doctrinal and capacity comfort zones.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States

11109. Cooperating for Peace: The Challenges and Promises of Partnerships in Peace Operations

Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the over two decades since UN peacekeepers won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1988, the mechanisms and means for providing peacekeeping “supply” where it is needed continue to bedevil policy makers and those on the ground tasked with the difficult job of international intervention. Today, the peacekeeping agenda is packed with concerns such as the protection of civilians, peacekeeping when there is no peace to keep, managing spoilers, balancing humanitarian, peacebuilding and development imperatives, and the realization that vulnerability to relapse into conflict means that peacekeepers may be required for years and indeed decades to come.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

11110. Safety and Security in the Biotechnological Age

Author:
Marc Finaud and Sunjay Chandiramani
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In many ways, the world is at the beginning of what some are already calling the “Biological Century.” Discoveries in the life sciences have the potential to reshape the worlds of health, food production, energy, and climate change, to produce new fuels, heat- and drought-resistant food crops, and to eradicate deadly diseases. But biotechnological discoveries also have a dark side – potential immense harm may be caused through accidental or intentional release of designer pathogens. The globe is also facing a myriad of natural biological threats. Fifteen million people die each year of deadly infectious diseases, with new ones emerging every year, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Avian Flu. In a world of 700 million international air passengers yearly, and almost all on flights shorter than the incubation period of infectious diseases, national health has become only as safe as global health.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United Nations

11111. Sanctions and Weapons of Mass Destruction in International Relations

Author:
Masahiko Asada, Bernard Sitt, Anthony Aust, Mikael Eriksson, Edward Ifft, and Ambassador Arend Meerburg
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
How best to prevent or respond without force to unacceptable political behaviour in international relations has long been a difficult problem, and especially as regards violations of agreements and norms related to international security.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions

11112. Morocco's Experience With Poverty Reduction: Lessons for the Arab World

Author:
Lahcen Achy
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Morocco has made remarkable progress reducing poverty over the last decade. Today, less than 9 percent of its population is considered poor, compared with 162 percent a decade ago—a notable achievement for a country of 32 million people that lacks significant natural resources. This trend deserves closer examination to understand the reasons for the drop in poverty and identify policy lessons for other countries both in and outside the region.
Topic:
Poverty and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

11113. The Role of Transportation in Driving Climate Disruption

Author:
Deborah Gordon
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Earth's rapidly warming temperatures over the past several decades cannot be explained by natural processes alone. The science is conclusive: both man-made and natural factors contribute to climate change. Human activities—fossil-fuel combustion in transportation and other sectors, urbanization, and deforestation—are increasing the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. These record levels of greenhouse gases are shifting the Earth's climate equilibrium.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment

11114. Russia's Oil Exports: Economic Rationale Versus Strategic Gains

Author:
Adnan Vatansever
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia, the world's largest oil producer, is vigorously promoting the development of new outlets for oil exports. While the recent launch of a long-awaited cross-border oil pipeline between Russia and China has received most of the publicity, it is a part of a much larger Russian initiative aimed at developing new oil export infrastructure in almost every possible direction: Asia, the Baltic Sea region, the Black Sea region, and the Arctic. This export strategy will have considerable policy and economic implications for Eastern and Central Europe and even the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

11115. A Place in the Sun or Fifteen Minutes of Fame? Understanding Turkey's New Foreign Policy

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey's vote against additional UN Security Council sanctions on Iran this year was viewed by many observers as a sign that Turkey is drifting away from the West. In reality, Ankara's relationship with the United States and the EU is much more complicated. Turkey's ambitious foreign policy and growing influence present the West with an opportunity to demand that Turkey play a more constructive role in the international community.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, and Turkey

11116. Reinterpreting China's Success Through the New Economic Geography

Author:
Yukon Huang
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China has in recent years capitalized on its huge, diverse population and geographical expanse to transform itself into the world's most efficient assembler and exporter of a wide range of manufactured goods. In achieving this development, it has followed a strategy essentially based on the New Economic Geography, which explains how lower transportation costs and concentration of economic activities foster economies of scale and explosive urbanization.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
China

11117. In Search of an "Action Principle"

Author:
Patrick J. Glen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
In his seminal work on the history of scientific development, Thomas Kuhn described the structure of that development as revolutionary in nature, occurring at that point in time “in which an older paradigm is replaced in whole or in part by an incompatible one.” The impetus for this paradigm shift is malfunction—“scientific revolutions are inaugurated by a growing sense … that an existing paradigm has ceased to function adequately in the exploration of an aspect of nature to which that paradigm itself had previously led the way…. [T]he sense of malfunction that can lead to crisis is prerequisite to revolution.” Kuhn himself analogized his conception of the theory and operation of scientific revolutions to political revolutions, drawing out parallels in genesis, form and function between the two. The notion of revolutionary change, or paradigm shifts, itself provides a useful framework to judge the evolution, current state, and potential future of international human rights and criminal law. Although the analogy must necessarily be incomplete, as is the analogy between scientific and political revolutions, it does go a long way in explaining how the current system of international justice has reached its present state, and what may need to occur before that system can develop further.
Topic:
Crime, Human Rights, Human Welfare, International Law, and Political Theory

11118. Teaching Notes: Rights and Rebuilding in El Salvador

Author:
Susan Waltz and Elaine K. Denny
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
We have prepared this two-part case study with two pedagogical purposes in mind: (1) To develop an understanding of the concept (and political meaning) of human rights. (2) To facilitate discussion about processes of reconciliation and reconstruction and the importance of holistic conceptions of rights and security for future stability. Instructor notes are organized around these two themes. For each theme, we have provided some background commentary and discussion questions that can accompany both parts of the case study.
Topic:
Civil War, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
Latin America

11119. Tunisia–The Imprisonment of Fahem Boukadous (Part One of a series)

Author:
Rob Prince
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
To most Americans with the exception of those few who, for whatever reason, have an attachment to the North African country of Tunisia, the name Fahem Boukadous, foreign to American ears, means nothing. It means a good deal more to "Reporters Without Borders” and to the US State Department that actually issued a statement (half way down the page) on his behalf, to the US intelligence agencies and military that have carefully followed the Spring, 2008 uprising in the Tunisian region of Gafsa–deemed the most extensive and militant social protest in that country's history in the past quarter century.
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Torture
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

11120. Human Rights Education in Peace-building: A Look at Where the Practice Has Come from, and Where It Needs to Head

Author:
Tracey Holland
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
The world's peace-building and development organizations increasingly are incorporating human-rights frameworks into the myriad of activities now under their purview. Slower to develop, however, are the capacity-building programs designed to impart knowledge about human rights to citizens and communities. Field-workers throughout the world indicate that the lack of such guidance-giving education hinders them when it comes to monitoring activities, helping to rebuild public institutions, setting up and organizing electoral politics, building an unfettered media, protecting human security, setting up transitional justice mechanisms, and the myriad of other peace-building activities and democratization challenges they face in post-conflict situations. This paper not only explores this emerging field of the study and practice of human-rights education within the cross-national peace-building sphere by sharing the perspectives of educators around the world, but also considers a host of ideas that should help to advance the human-rights agendas of present and future post-conflict planners.
Topic:
Security, Development, Human Rights, Human Welfare, International Law, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping

11121. Chicago's Preparedness for Terrorism

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This is the third in a series of reports about various cities' preparedness for terrorism and/or natural disasters. It is the outgrowth of a series of discussions in 2007-2008 in New York, Los Angeles, Houston, New Orleans, and Chicago among key federal, state, and local government officials in each such city, as well as private sector stakeholders, and think tank/academic experts on homeland security and counterterrorism. The series was underwritten by a generous lead grant from the Ford Foundation, supplemented by additional grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, the McCormick Foundation, and the Houston Endowment. The goal in each city was to identify best practices that can be replicated around the country; to identify any gaps in preparedness; and to recommend to policymakers ways and means of closing any such gaps.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, New York, and Chicago

11122. Houston's Preparedness for Terrorism

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This is the fourth in a series of reports, underwritten principally by the Ford Foundation, and, in this particular case, additionally, the Houston Endowment, as to various cities' (namely, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, New Orleans, and Houston) preparedness for terrorism and catastrophic natural disasters. Our goal in each city was to identify best practices that can be replicated in other cities around the nation; to identify any gaps in preparedness; and to make recommendations to close any such gaps. We conducted these assessments primarily through roundtable discussions in each city in 2007-2009 with key local, state, and federal government officials, corporate and non-profit stakeholders, and academic and think tank experts, with some supplemental research and follow-up interviews. The audience for each roundtable consisted of representatives of funding organizations, congressional staff, policy experts, and students, all of whom were helpful in engaging the speakers in dialogue following their formal presentations.
Topic:
Security, Government, Terrorism, Natural Disasters, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, New York, and Chicago

11123. Reforming Medical Malpractice Liability through Contract

Author:
Michael F. Cannon
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This paper discusses the medical malpractice "crisis" and the potential of contract liability to reduce overall malpractice costs as well as improve the quality of and access to care. First, the paper describes the current medical malpractice liability "system" and some of the more common reforms offered. It then discusses the economic rationale of allowing patients and providers to agree in advance of treatment on how the patient will be compensated in the event of simple negligence on the part of providers, explaining how contract liability may offer improvements in the areas of costs, patient preferences, the pursuit of more efficient liability rules, and quality of care. The paper then critiques select objections to contract liability – those based on the superior bargaining power of providers, the lack of information available to patients, and possible reductions in quality – and forwards possible limitations on the right to contract that may allay such concerns.
Topic:
Health, Law, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
United States

11124. Has the Fed Been a Failure?

Author:
George A. Selgin, Lawrence H. White, and William D. Lastrapes
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As the one-hundredth anniversary of the 1913 Federal Reserve Act approaches, we assess whether the nation's experiment with the Federal Reserve has been a success or a failure. Drawing on a wide range of recent empirical research, we find the following: (1) The Fed's full history (1914 to present) has been characterized by more rather than fewer symptoms of monetary and macroeconomic instability than the decades leading to the Fed's establishment. (2) While the Fed's performance has undoubtedly improved since World War II, even its postwar performance has not clearly surpassed that of its undoubtedly flawed predecessor, the National Banking system, before World War I. (3) Some proposed alternative arrangements might plausibly do better than the Fed as presently constituted. We conclude that the need for a systematic exploration of alternatives to the established monetary system is as pressing today as it was a century ago.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

11125. Do Vouchers and Tax Credits Increase Private School Regulation?

Author:
Andrew J. Coulson
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
School voucher and education tax credit programs have proliferated in the United States over the past two decades. Advocates have argued that they will enable families to become active consumers in a free and competitive education marketplace, but some fear that these programs may in fact bring with them a heavy regulatory burden that could stifle market forces. Until now, there has been no systematic, empirical investigation of that concern. The present paper aims to shed light on the issue by quantifying the regulations imposed on private schools both within and outside school choice programs, and then analyzing them with descriptive statistics and regression analyses. The results are tested for robustness to alternative ways of quantifying private school regulation, and to alternative regression models, and the question of causality is addressed. The study concludes that vouchers, but not tax credits, impose a substantial and statistically significant additional regulatory burden on participating private schools.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

11126. Approaches to Solving Territorial Conflicts: Sources, Situations, Scenarios, and Suggestions

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Territorial disputes are notoriously difficult to resolve peacefully and enduringly. The outcome of adjudication on border issues is unpredictable, and political leaders are often unwilling to accept the risks of losing territory. Arbitration or mediation (nonbinding arbitration) provide a more flexible and balanced way to reach a satisfactory outcome, but their finality also makes politicians nervous.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, War, and Territorial Disputes

11127. Guide to Electoral Dispute Resolution

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Electoral rights are based on fundamental human rights, namely the civil and political freedoms of opinion, expression, association, and peaceful assembly that are solidly established on a global and regional basis under numerous international conventions. The right to enjoy free and fair elections also derives from the right to participate in governance, both directly and through representatives, which is also established through these instruments. Finally, the treaties also require protection of electoral as well as other human rights through an effective system of appeal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Treaties and Agreements

11128. Final Report: Limited Assessment Mission to the March 2010 Villagers Committee Elections in Yunnan Province, China

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
One of the most important democratic experiments of the last 25 years has been the movement in more than 600,000 villages across China toward open, competitive elections, allowing 75 percent of the nation's 1.3 billion people to elect their local leaders. For over a decade, at the invitation of the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National People's Congress, The Carter Center has worked to help standardize the vast array of electoral procedures taking place in this new democratic environment and foster better governance in local communities. Since 1996, The Carter Center has observed numerous village elections, provided training to local government officials on electoral procedures, and helped conduct a nation-wide survey on villager self-governance.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

11129. Final Report : Observation Mission of the Bolivia Voter Registration 2009

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Dec. 6, 2009, presidential and legislative elections were the first elections held under the new constitution of the Plurinational State of Bolivia. The high rate of citizen participation in the voter registration process and the general elections confirmed that the Bolivian people have a strong commitment to democratic life and that elections are regarded as a legitimate means to settle differences. The Carter Center mission in Bolivia was targeted, focusing on long-term observation of the voter registration process. As such, the mission did not conduct a comprehensive assessment of the entire electoral process. The Carter Center opened a field office in La Paz that operated from Aug. 15 to Dec. 15. During this time, voter registration was assessed through direct observation, as well as technical and legal analysis. The mission also included a limited observation of the Dec. 6 general elections. The mission was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation. This report covers the findings of The Carter Center mission.
Topic:
Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

11130. State of Affairs: Three Years After Nisoor Square: Accountability and Oversight of U.S. Private Security and Other Contractors

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
On September 16, 2007, Black water Worldwide (now X e) private security contractors working for the U.S. Department of State killed 17 unarmed civilians and wounded 24 more in an unprovoked incident in Baghdad's Nisoor Square. A political firestorm immediately ensued in Iraq, the United States and around the world. The incident exposed what had been clear for several years: The United States lacked a coordinated, systematic policy for overseeing private contractors abroad and holding them accountable for serious violent crimes. Now, the United States' reliance on private security contractors in zones of armed conflict is increasing as is the urgent need for effective contractor oversight and accountability. Private contractors continue to outnumber U.S. military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both the surge in Afghanistan and the drawdown in Iraq require additional support from private security and other contractors. It is estimated that up to 50,000 contractors will be required to support the Afghan surge and, with the military drawdown in Iraq, the Department of State plans to more than double the number of private security contractors it employs from 2,700 to 7,000. As Iraq and eventually Afghanistan move from military to civilian control and private contractors replace military forces there, the so-called jurisdictional gap over non-Defense contractors widens. If we learned anything from Nisoor Square it is that oversight and accountability gaps must be filled prior to increasing our private contractor force in conflict zones.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Human Rights, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Arabia

11131. Russia, the United States, and Cyber Diplomacy: Opening the Doors

Author:
Greg Austin and Franz-Stefan Gady
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russia and the United States have been unable to establish a common understanding in their bilateral diplomacy on most aspects of cyber security. In spite of a 1998 declaration of their interest in joint leadership of global responses to cyber security challenges, the two countries have acted more often than not like enemies guarding sensitive national security secrets rather than as allies committed to protecting common interests in the global digital economy and the socially networked world.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

11132. Rights and Responsibilities in Cyberspace: Balancing the Need for Security and Liberty

Author:
Jody R. Westby, Henning Wegener, and William Barletta
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Cyber war has become the drumbeat of the day. Nation-states are developing national strategies, creating offensive and defensive cyber war capabilities, conduct-ing cyber reconnaissance missions, and engaging in cyber attacks, all with alarming frequency. What is blatantly apparent is that far more financial resources and intel-lectual capital are being spent figuring out how to conduct cyber warfare than are being spent figuring out how to prevent it. The lack of international dialogue and activity with respect to the containment of cyber warfare is simply stunning. As Winston Churchill famously noted, “It is bet-ter to jaw-jaw than to war-war.” It is time for governments to begin discussions aimed at assuring an agreed-upon level of geo-cyber stability through mutual cooperation and international law.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Moscow and Brussels

11133. Policy Matters But How? Explaining Non-Compliance Dynamics in the EU

Author:
Tanja A. Börzel, Tobias Hofmann, and Diana Panke
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The European Union's infringement procedure is highly legalized. Nevertheless, as in other international institutions, non-compliance occurs on a regular basis and its transformation into compliance varies across EU infringement stages and over time. State of the art compliance literature focuses mainly on country-specific explanations, such as power, capacity, and legitimacy. In particular power-capacity models explain a good part of whether non-compliance occurs and how quickly it can be resolved. Yet, these approaches leave substantial parts of the empirical variation that we observe unexplained. This paper argues that policy and, in particular, rule-specific variables – although often neglected – are important for explaining non-compliance. Based on a quantitative analysis, we show that policy matters not only for the frequency with which EU law is violated, but also the persistence of non-compliance over time and over the different stages of the infringement procedure.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Law
Political Geography:
Europe

11134. Public Forum and Workshop on Securing Food Futures in the Asia-Pacific: Evaluating Regional Frameworks for Food Security

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Between 2005 and 2008, global food prices increased 83 per cent. The price of wheat rose by 127 per cent, rice by 170 per cent and that of maize tripled. As a result the number of people suffering from chronic hunger reached a historic high of 1.02 billion in 2009, with the Asia- Pacific region accounting for 63 per cent of that total (642 million people). Although the situation improved in 2010 due to a more favourable economic environment and a fall in both international and domestic food prices, the future remains daunting. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), for example, forecast that the average wheat and coarse grain prices over the next 10 years will increase by between 15 and 40 per cent in real terms compared to average levels during 1997–2006. These events and projections demonstrate the global nature of the food problem, and underscore the importance of deeper regional cooperation.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, and Food
Political Geography:
United Nations

11135. On Multilateralism -Ideas and Actions of a World Banker-

Author:
Hideaki Asahi
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
The genesis of this essay was a series of conversations over the Internet with a long-time friend who made a whirlwind trip to Japan at the end of 2009. At the time, I felt compelled to write by his suggestion that the concept of multilateralism might well be understood and become more prevalent among not only policy-makers, but also the general public, and that this would serve the interests of Japan in changing international circumstances. Subsequently, I was requested to draft an essay for contribution to a forthcoming annual bulletin of the graduate course I was about to leave at the conclusion of tenure. The bulletin struck me as an opportune medium for the dissemination of an essay on multilateralism. With this backdrop in mind, it should be understood that the essay was neither a piece of academic research nor a policy advocacy piece targeted at the ordinary readers of public opinion journals. It is rather an attempt to weave together vivid memories and piece together remembered fragments of conversations held over the past three decades, an undertaking I have long considered worthwhile. The contents of this essay intentionally steered clear of stories concerning my friendship with this person already reported by well-known journalists in Japan. Instead, the essay is intended to examine the core elements of what he stands for, known as multilateralism, which may be paraphrased as liberal internationalism in the literature of international relations. Accordingly, I hope the essay will serve as a personal memorandum. I also hope that it will help the readers envisage how multilateralism works and deepen their understanding of what it is all about by connecting the concept of multilateralism to concrete images and offering food for thought.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and Asia

11136. Al Qaeda's Religious Justification of Nuclear Terrorism

Author:
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When legendary jihadist Abdullah Azzam was assassinated under mysterious circumstances in November 1989, suspects in his murder included Osama bin Laden and Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. After the Soviets were expelled from Afghanistan, Azzam sought to shift jihad to his homeland, Palestine. Zawahiri sought to focus the jihad on Egypt and the other secular Muslim states, in hopes of restoring the caliphate, the rule of Islamic clerics, which had ended after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in 1924. After Islamic rule had been re-established in the Islamic world, Zawahiri wrote, “then history would make a new turn, God willing, in the opposite direction against the empire of the United States and the world's Jewish government.”
Topic:
Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Palestine, Egypt, and Assam

11137. Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Jeannie Sowers
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The impacts of human-induced climate change are often considered a future prospect, yet in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), indications of a changing climate are clearly evident. Most of the predicted outcomes associated with international climate models are already occurring in the region, compounding existing problems of water scarcity, water pollution, desertification, salinization, and sea-level rise. Since most of the MENA region is arid and hyperarid, small changes in water availability and arable land have significant consequences for human security. Thus, “if mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water” (Clausen and Berg 2010). Particularly through effects on the variability and quality of scarce and degraded water resources, human-induced climate change exacerbates already existing problems affecting urban and rural development, human health, and economic productivity in MENA.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

11138. Iranian Youth in Times of Economic Crisis

Author:
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Young people in Iran have emerged as important players on the country's political scene but remain marginal on its economic scene. They were a vital part of President Khatami's political base and contributed to his landslide victories at the polls, in 1997 and 2001. In June 2009 they again played a key role, this time in challenging President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial reelection, which led to massive anti-government protests in the nation's largest cities. A year later the political crisis appears to have subsided, but the economic crisis that has engulfed the country since early 2008 has deepened, and with it the crisis facing Iran's youth. Youth unemployment is at record high levels and, for the majority of youth, marriage and family formation are increasingly becoming challenges to overcome rather than celebrations of reaching adulthood.
Topic:
Islam, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Asia

11139. Controlling Behavior – Not Arms: Moving Forward On An International Convention For Cyberspace

Author:
Ramtin Amin
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The rapidly increasing occurrence of cyber attacks and the growing use of the cyber domain for politically motivated purposes during both times of war and peace by both state and non-state actors has precipitated a dire need of an international convention to control behavior in cyberspace. While arms control conventions exist for the nuclear, chemical, and biological modes of warfare occurring at land, sea, space, and air, no such treaty is in place for the latest domain, whose tactical importance is now of vital importance for the global communication infrastructure and domestic military capabilities. In this paper, I will first extrapolate upon the current legal landscape pertinent to cyber arms and crime, and explore the limitations of current international laws that have been most often cited during past instances of cyber attacks. I will further explore a number of arms control drafts that have been proposed over the years, and highlight some of the lessons learned, with the aim of providing a constructive analysis to aid international lawmakers and affiliated institutions who are less familiar with the meta-physical cyber domain, and the unique challenges it presents. Finally, I will analyze the following five essential elements of a future global cyber convention: terms and definitions regarding cyber arms; peaceful use of cyber technology; signatory obligations regarding private actors; attribution; and mechanisms for deterrence. In exploring these fundamental themes, I will demonstrate why and how a future convention for cyberspace should focus on controlling behavior, rather than dwelling on a counterproductive goal of arms control.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

11140. Art and Ecstasy in Arab Music

Author:
A.J. Racy
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Throughout history, the emotional power of music has concerned philosophers, scientists, educators, moralists, and musicians. Growing up in a small rural village in southern Lebanon, I observed such power first hand. When the mijwiz (a double-pipe reed instrument) was played, traditionally using the technique of circular breathing, I saw the local listeners succumb to the instrument's magic spell. Its irresistible Dionysian ethos seemed to compel them to sing and dance. Some villagers maintained that the mijwiz enabled the shepherds, who often played it, to entrance their goats and make them stand still and listen. As an ethnomusicologist who specializes in music of the Middle East, especially of the Arab world, I have come across other similarly compelling cases of musical transformation. When singers chanted their poetry at medieval Abbasid courts in Baghdad, the listeners, including the caliphs themselves, displayed a variety of strong reactions, including moving their feet, dancing, sobbing, weeping, and tearing their garments—or in some cases listening to the performers attentively and bestowing upon them lavish compliments. Meanwhile, medieval Arabic treatises, which in the ancient Greek tradition often treated music as a science, left us ample writings about music's extraordinary cosmological associations and therapeutic effects. And for the Sufi mystics, music and dance became an integral path to transcendence, or the attainment of spiritual ecstasy.
Topic:
Islam, Arts, and Culture
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

11141. Regional Workshop on Dealing with Energy Vulnerabilities

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Much literature on energy security in East Asia has focused on the dynamics of competition over resources, and how conflicts could arise from this. While this analytical perspective identifies potential risks and is conducive to the proposing of pre-emptive solutions to likely problems, it also risks precluding necessary attention to the possibilities for cooperation between states in the region. While the themes of competition and conflict will continue to be relevant in discussions on East Asian states and societies, it ought to be a useful exercise to review case studies of how countries in East Asia have managed to overcome their respective vulnerabilities and thus meet their energy needs. Such knowledge can in turn contribute to the exploration of cooperation-based solutions for addressing energy security in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

11142. The Impact of Migration and Remittances on Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in Rural Thailand

Author:
Filiz Garip
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of internal migration and remittance flows on wealth accumulation and distribution in 22 rural villages in Nang Rong, Thailand. Using data from 943 households, the study constructs indices of household productive and consumer assets with principal components analysis. The changes in these indices from 1994 to 2000 are modeled as a function of households' prior migration and remittance behavior while correcting for potential selectivity bias with propensity score matching. The findings show that rich households face a decrease in productive assets due to migration of their members, while poor households with migrants gain productive assets and improve their relative status in their communities. These results suggest an equalizing effect of migration and remittance flows on wealth distribution in rural Thailand.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

11143. Discovering Diverse Mechanisms of Migration: The Mexico-U.S. Stream from 1970 to 2000

Author:
Filiz Garip
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Migrants to the United States are a diverse population. This diversity, captured in various migration theories, is overlooked in empirical applications that describe a typical narrative for an average migrant. Using the Mexican Migration Project data from about 17,000 first-time migrants between 1970 and 2000, this study employs cluster analysis to identify four types of migrants with distinct configurations of characteristics. Each migrant type corresponds to a specific theoretical account, and becomes prevalent in a specific period, depending on the economic, social and political conditions. Strikingly, each migrant type also becomes prevalent around the period in which its corresponding theory is developed.
Topic:
Migration and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

11144. The Role of Women in Global Security

Author:
Valerie Norville
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Building lasting peace and security requires women's participation. Half of the world's population cannot make a whole peace. Ten years after the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1325 on increasing women's participation in matters of global security, the numbers of women participating in peace settlements remain marginal. While improvements have been made, women remain underrepresented in public office, at the negotiating table, and in peacekeeping missions. The needs and perspectives of women are often overlooked in postconflict disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR), as well as in security sector reform, rehabilitation of justice, and the rule of law. Many conflicts have been marked by widespread sexual and gender-based violence, which often continues in the aftermath of war and is typically accompanied by impunity for the perpetrators. A continuing lack of physical security and the existence of significant legal constraints in postconflict societies hamper women's integration into economic life and leadership. Best practices for increasing women's participation include deployment of gender-balanced peacekeeping units, a whole-of-government approach to security sector and judicial reform, and more intentional solicitation of the input of women at the community level on priori - ties for national budgets and international programs.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Globalization, and United Nations

11145. Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Author:
Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria's 2011 polls will mark the fourth multiparty election in Nigeria and, if a power transfer occurs, only the second handover of civilian administrations since the country's return to democracy in 1999. Past election cycles have featured political assassinations, voter intimidation, intra-and interparty clashes, and communal unrest. Party primary season, the days immediately surrounding elections, and the announcement of results have been among the most violent periods in previous cycles. Although the most recent elections in 2007 derived some benefit from local conflict management capacity, they were roundly criticized for being neither free nor fair. The 2011 elections could mark a turning point in the consolidation of Nigeria's democracy, but they could also provoke worsening ethnosectarian clashes and contribute to the continuing scourge of zero-sum politics. President Umaru Yar'Adua, who died in May 2010, kept his 2007 inauguration promise to create an Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) but failed to adopt key recommendations that the committee made. His successor, President Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a widely respected professor, Attahiru Jega, to head the Independent National Electoral Commission, inspiring hope that electoral processes will improve in 2011. The issue of “zoning,” the political elite's power-sharing agreement, has taken center stage in the current election cycle and will drive significant conflict if the debate around it devolves into outright hostilities. his unusual election cycle, local and international organizations and Electoral Management Bodies (EMBs) must redouble their efforts both to prevent and resolve conflicts and to promote conflict sensitivity. The near term requires an increasingly important role for the judiciary in combating electoral fraud, and the longer term requires the creation of the ERC–recommended Electoral Offenses Commission, which would specialize in the investigation and prosecution of crimes. Local agencies and respected community leaders must remain proactive and creative in violence-prevention programming, irrespective of international funding. Established local organizations with preexisting networks are best situated to perform early-warning and conflict management functions. High voter turnout and citizen monitoring are vital for ensuring that the 2011 elections in Nigeria are credible and civil.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

11146. Countering Radicalization in America: Lessons from Europe

Author:
Lorenzo Vidino
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The recent surge in the number of American Muslims involved in terrorism has led U.S. authorities to question the long-held assumption that American Muslims are immune to radicalization, and to follow the example of other Western democracies in devising a comprehensive counter radicalization strategy. Radicalization is a highly individualized process determined by the complex interaction of various personal and structural factors. Because no one theory can exhaustively explain it, policymakers must understand the many paths to radicalization and adopt flexible approaches when trying to combat it. The role of religion in the radicalization process is debated, but theories that set aside ideology and religion as factors in the radicalization of Western jihadists are not convincing. Policymakers who choose to tackle religious aspects should do so cautiously, however, cognizant of the many implications of dealing with such a sensitive issue. Policymakers need to determine whether a counter radicalization strategy aims to tackle violent radicalism alone or, more ambitiously, cognitive radicalism. The relation between the two forms is contested. Challenging cognitive radicalism, though possibly useful for both security and social cohesion purposes, is extremely difficult for any Western democracy.Finding partners in the Muslim community is vital to any counter radicalization program. In light of the fragmentation of that community, a diverse array of partners appears to be the best solution. There is the risk, however, that counter radicalization efforts could be perceived by Muslims as unfairly targeting them. Partnerships with nonviolent Islamists could provide results in the short term, but there are doubts as to their long-term implications. All aspects of a partnership with such groups should be carefully examined before any decision is made. Policymakers need to find ways to empirically measure their programs' effectiveness.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States and America

11147. The Experience of Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Integrated Financial Management Information System Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa: What is the Balance Sheet?

Author:
Mfandaedza Hove and Andy Wynne
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
A Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and an Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) are two of the standard reforms promoted and supported by the World Bank and other aid agencies in almost every country in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper provides a balance sheet of the relative success, or otherwise, of these reforms over the last decade. The aims and objectives of the MTEF and the IFMIS are outlined, indicating the initial hopes for these reforms and the increasingly strident warnings that this promise was not being delivered. The paper then argues that it was the economic problems across Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the late 1970s and early 1980s, resulting from external events, which led to a worsening of the quality of financial management and governance. This contrasts with the dominant view that it is poor governance that is holding back economic development across the continent. This leads to considerations of effective alternative approaches; the need for real country led reforms which build on the particular existing public sector financial management system in each country; and puts a priority on basic internal financial controls and reforms which have been clearly proved to be successful in similar environments.
Topic:
Debt, Reform, Public Sector, and Financial Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, and Sub-Saharan Africa

11148. Currency Reforms in Zimbabwe: an Analysis of Possible Currency Regimes

Author:
George Kararach, Phineas Kadenge, and Gibson Guvheya
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) adopted a multiple currencies regime (MCR) in February 2009 and demonetized the Zimbabwean dollar in July 2009 after almost a decade of economic crisis. The MCR strategy resulted in stabilizing the Zimbabwean economy; however, there are remaining concerns that need to be addressed. The purpose of this paper is to explore various options of currency regimes that could be adopted in the short and medium term in order to consolidate Economic stabilization and recovery in Zimbabwe. The paper proposes that the optimal choice of a particular currency regime be based on a framework that takes into account the following: (a) the advantages and disadvantages of a particular regime, (b) the need for correct timing and sequencing of policy tools and reform actions, (c) the prior capacity conditions in the country, and (d) the political commitment to undertake the necessary reforms. It is imperative to note that these reforms are no quick fixes for designing economic stabilization and recovery programs needed in Zimbabwe. The Zimbabwean authorities and stakeholders need to fulfill the aforesaid preconditions for successful currency reform, before collectively selecting from among the various options.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Reform, Central Bank, Fiscal Policy, Currency, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

11149. Lifestyles and Preferences for (Public) Goods: Professional Football Goods: Professional Football Professional Footballin Munich

Author:
Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Wolfgang Maennig, and Michaela Ölschläger
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper investigates the 2001 referendum on the Allianz-Arena, a professional soccer stadium in Munich, Germany, with respect to lifestyle-specific voter preferences. Using political party affiliation and milieu probabilities as proxy variables, we find that lifestyle-specific preferences, values and attitudes more significantly contribute to the explanation of voting outcome compared to traditional strata-orientated indicators of economic wealth. Thus, lifestyle, preferences, tastes and attitudes are not proportionally related to income. Results are robust to stadium proximity effects and spatial dependency.
Topic:
Sports, Referendum, Stadiums, and Lifestyle
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Munich

11150. Sectoral Labour Market Effects of the 2006 FIFA World Cup

Author:
Arne Feddersen and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Using the case of the 2006 FIFA World Cup, this study is the first to test the employment effects of a mega-sporting event on the basis of data that are both regional and sectoral. It is also the first study of sporting events to use a non-parametric test method. Earlier studies on the World Cup could not identify any employment effects. In contrast, we find a small but significant positive employment effect on the hospitality sector and a negative effect on the construction sector. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a crowding-out effect of public investment on the occasion of a mega-sporting event has been found in an empirical analysis.
Topic:
Economics, World Cup, Labor Market, and FIFA
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany