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1591. Rwanda’s Agricultural Transformation Revisited: Stagnating Food Production, Systematic Overestimation, and a Flawed Performance Contract System

Author:
Sebastian Heinen
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Sustained productivity growth in the agricultural sector is a key component of a country’s path out of poverty. The quantitative development of Rwanda’s agriculture in recent years has been widely regarded as a success story and as further evidence for the effectiveness of its government to bring about sustained socio-economic progress. However, simple statistical analysis of publicly available data shows that food crop production volumes and yields have actually stagnated over the last fifteen years. Moreover, agricultural output was significantly overestimated from 2008-2013 and then silently corrected downwards in Rwandan and international datasets. As a result, the country’s economic growth numbers are very likely inflated as well. After presenting substantive evidence for these claims, this paper discusses three issues arising from them. First, it argues that yield-raising effects of massive mineral fertiliser application and other ‘Green Revolution’ technologies were offset by the enormous disruption resulting from the government’s rigorously enforced agricultural reform programme. Second, it finds that massive food crop production overestimation likely proliferated due to a flawed performance-based governance system that incentivised bureaucrats and farmers to tweak the numbers instead of compelling them to achieve actual results. Even more, this inflation prevented early detection of agricultural stagnation and consequently also the required adaptation of agricultural policy. Third, the exceptional ‘brand-building’ capabilities of the Rwandan ruling elite led to the preservation of its false reputation of having achieved skyrocketing yield growth. As a silver lining, a few recently revised reform components point to the possibility of an eventually more successful agricultural transformation, whose chances might hinge on the government’s ability to allow more discretion of bureaucrats and more inclusion of local knowledge.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

1592. Climate Change, Central Banking, and Financial Supervision: Beyond the Risk Exposure Approach

Author:
Yannis Dafermos
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
It is now increasingly accepted that central banks and financial supervisors can no longer ignore climate change. However, there is no consensus on how they should address climate issues. On the one hand, there is a view that central banks and financial supervisors should mainly contribute to the assessment of the exposure of the financial system to climate-related financial risks, considering at the same time the possibility of incorporating climate risks into monetary policy and financial supervision and regulation. On the other hand, it is argued that central banks and financial supervisors need to take action such that they contribute directly to the decarbonisation of our economies and the prevention of climate systemic risks. In this paper, I analyse the main premises and implications of these two approaches and I explain why a systemic risk approach is necessary in the age of climate emergency. I also discuss the challenges involved in a policy agenda aiming at the reduction of climate systemic risks and I outline how these challenges can be tackled.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1593. Israel and Lebanon: A Bridge Over Troubled Waters?

Author:
Nir Boms and Stephane Cohen
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Amidst a deep political and economic crisis in Lebanon, accelerated by the Beirut port explosion in August last year, the end of 2020 witnessed a surprising round of talks regarding the demarcation of the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border. These bilateral negotiations - mediated by the U.S. and the U.N. - are the first non-security talks held between the two countries since the 1990s. Of course, Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and are technically in a state of war. The incentives for progress in the talks are strong as they could pave the way for lucrative oil and gas deals on both sides, though there still appear to be significant obstacles on the Lebanese side. Speaking with John Desrocher, the most recent U.S. mediator for the negotiations, in December 2020, Lebanese President Aoun was quoted as saying that Lebanon wants the talks to succeed because “this will strengthen stability in the South and allow us to invest in natural resources of oil and gas.”[1] Could a maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon be feasible, despite the otherwise toxic atmosphere between the two countries and the recent escalating threats of Hizballah? In a region full of surprises, this, too, might be a part of a changing reality.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Economy, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

1594. Kuwait’s New Government: A Political System in Crisis?

Author:
Eran Segal
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Kuwait’s new government, which was sworn in on March 3, is facing what could be a "perfect storm," combining a troublesome mix of political and economic problems that could lead to a substantial change, and perhaps instability. These developments raise the specter of a crisis similar to that of 2012, when Kuwait experienced two separate elections and massive demonstrations.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

1595. The “Non-State” State in Iraqi Political Discourse and Action

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
For several years, the concept of “Iraq as a ‘non-state’” (Iraq al-ladawla) has been circulating within the Iraqi political sphere. This concept became the focus of heated debate among politicians, intellectuals, and journalists across the entire Iraqi political spectrum since the outbreak of the popular uprising in Iraq in October 2019. What is the meaning of this term? What were the circumstances that led to the development of the debate in Iraq? What political and socio-economic problems does it reflect?
Topic:
Politics, Non State Actors, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1596. Morocco’s Normalization with Israel: The Party for Justice and Development (PJD)’s Reaction

Author:
Tiziana della Ragione
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In December 2020, following the Abraham Accords framework mediated by the United States, Morocco agreed to restore its official diplomatic ties with Israel after a 20-year break, and, in return, the Trump Administration recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the long-disputed territory of Western Sahara. The initial steps to normalize Israeli-Moroccan ties followed quickly on the heels of the official announcements. On January 25, Israel’s liaison office reopened in Rabat while Morocco's diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv is expected to follow later this month, after the arrival to Israel of the Head of Morocco's diplomatic mission Abderrahim Beyyoud in February.[1] While the process for implementing the peace agreement between the two countries continues, with economic, cultural, and social collaborations, the Party for Justice and Development (PJD), the Moroccan Islamist ruling party, has faced criticism for its acquiescence to the Palace’s decision. By aligning itself with King Mohammed VI’s decision to normalize with Israel, the PJD has shown that it is more interested in preserving its good relations with the Palace and winning the King’s support for its domestic agenda of socio-economic reforms, than in taking a hard line on Palestine. During the PJD-led government of Abdelillah Benkirane (2012-2016), successful socio-economic reforms led to its attaining an additional 18 parliamentary seats in the October 2016 elections, reinforcing its position as the largest party in parliament. In muting its criticism of the normalization process, PJD is preserving its position in the political arena and focusing on its socio-economic agenda, which it sees as the key to its success. However, in doing so, the PJD risks alienating a portion of its constituency, which may view its silence in defense of Palestine as a form of ideological betrayal.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco

1597. Iran in Syria: From Expansion to Entrenchment

Author:
Ido Yahel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war has often made headlines in Israel. Particularly in the context of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s so-called campaign between the wars (the Hebrew acronym is Mabam), which has included attempts to prevent Iran from establishing military bases in Syria, keeping Iranian forces away from the Syrian-Israeli border, and thwarting the transfer of precision weapons to Hizballah. But Iranian involvement in Syria goes far beyond the confines of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. As a result of the "Arab Spring" uprising and the Syrian civil war, Iran has succeeded in establishing itself in areas far from the Israeli-Syrian border and extended its influence in Syria beyond the military sphere.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

1598. Is the Muslim Brotherhood losing Turkey and Qatar in the light of the rapprochement with Egypt?

Author:
Michael Barak
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Egypt's relations with Turkey and Qatar have been improving for the last six months, following a long period of diplomatic crises and hostility that lasted eight years and four years, respectively. This rapprochement is an attempt to reset relations in a way that would allow all three parties to maintain their good relations with the new U.S. administration. As a condition for normalizing ties, Egypt had demanded that Turkey and Qatar end their support to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). This demand has been described in the Arab media as an ominous sign for the MB, which feared it would be sacrificed on the altar of Turkish and Qatari state interests. However, the discourse of the MB's members on the subject, the continued anti-Egyptian remarks of senior Turkish government officials, and the intention of the Egyptian government to execute senior MB leaders suggests that the chances of Turkey and the MB ending their relationship are quite slim. Qatar, for its part, continues to allow the MB's members to find refuge within its borders, but at the same time is not interested in provoking Egypt.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Government, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations

1599. Hizballah’s Gain, Lebanon’s Pain

Author:
Joel Parker and Sarah Cahn
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
On August 6, Hizballah fired 20 rockets towards the Shebaa Farms area of the Golan Heights, highlighting the growing political instability in Lebanon. Hizballah's behavior should be viewed in light of the ongoing financial and political crisis that has affected every aspect of Lebanese life since late 2019 and has pushed hundreds of thousands of people into poverty. Hizballah may not be the primary or sole cause of the crisis, but it is important to understand how it may have contributed indirectly to it, how it may benefit from it, and why it may not have an interest in fully resolving it. Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedmann Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), argues that despite the collapsing economy in Lebanon, Hizballah has been able to expand its array of social-welfare institutions to deepen their Shiʿi constituency's dependence and even expand the reach of these programs by providing support to a growing number of Lebanese who are struggling to survive. Hizballah also receives funding from Iran and through its commercial activities around the world, so one might ask how much Hizballah really needs the Lebanese state. Lina Khatib, a scholar at Chatham House and SOAS University of London, contends that Hizballah benefits from its hybrid role as a part of the state and, at the same time, free to operate outside the official channels of government and public scrutiny. Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, however, has argued that the group might indeed benefit from a collapse of the state, which will allow Hizballah to continue to fill a growing political, economic, and social power vacuum.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Power, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

1600. Jordan: With Relations with Washington and Jerusalem Back in Order, a Flurry of Diplomatic Activity

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Jordanian diplomacy has been invigorated in recent months, with Jordan taking a major and sometimes leading role in significant regional developments. The renewed intensity and prominence are associated with marked improvement in relations with the United States and Israel, following the leadership changes in both countries. King ʿAbdullah II seems to have received a fresh mandate from the Biden Administration to help promote regional changes aimed at reducing the influence of Iran and its allies, in an era of declining direct American engagement in the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America