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12. Asset-Based Poverty in Rural Tajikistan: Who Climbs out and Who Falls in?
- Author:
- Oleksiy Ivaschenko and Cem Mete
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Tajikistan's rural sector has witnessed substantial development since the country began to emerge from civil conflict in 1999. Gross agricultural output increased 64 per cent from 1999 to 2003, and there were significant developments in the agricultural reform agenda. This paper uses the panel component of two surveys conducted in Tajikistan at one-year interval (2003 and 2004) to explore the major determinants of the transition out of/into poverty of rural households. Poverty status is measured in the asset space, thus indicating structural rather than transitory poverty movements. The empirical analysis reveals several interesting findings that are also important from a policy perspective: first, cotton farming seems to have no positive impact on poverty levels, nor on mobility out of poverty. Second, the rate of increase in the share of private farming at the district level had little impact on poverty levels and poverty mobility.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Tajikistan
13. Beyond Industrialization: New Approaches to Development Strategy Based on the Service Sector
- Author:
- Peter Sheehan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Industrialization occupies a central place in the rich tapestry of development theory and practice. Although that place has varied over time, many have agreed with Nicholas Kaldor that the kind of economic growth that leads to high real income per capita can only occur through industrialization. This paper argues that it is becoming increasingly difficult for most developing countries to achieve rapid growth through industrialization, and especially through export oriented activities. But the key mechanisms seen as driving the industrial take-off in much of the literature (internal increasing returns, transfer of labour into higher value activities and pecuniary externalities) are alive and well, and are evident in services as well as in industry. Furthermore, China is actively trying to move from a strategy based on industrialization to one based much more on agriculture and services, as the costs of the current pattern of industrialization become prohibitive, and India has demonstrated that rapid growth based primarily on the services sector is possible. Thus more attention needs to be given to strategies based on the expansion of the agricultural and services sectors, and to the ways in which better services in rural areas and higher rural output can combine to achieve rapid growth and improved human welfare in poor countries.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Asia
14. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences
- Author:
- Jeffrey Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
15. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles
- Author:
- Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
16. China's Development Strategy and Energy Security: Growth, Distribution and Regional Cooperation
- Author:
- Haider A. Khan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses both global and regional approaches to solving problems of energy security and ecological imbalance by addressing specifically the problems of China's energy security. China's growing energy dependence has become a major concern for both economic and national security policymakers in that country. The ambitious goal of modernization of the economy along the lines of the other newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia has succeeded only too well, and it is difficult to reorient economic priorities. If examined rigorously, such an economic strategic assumption can be seen to entail the goal of creating further technological capabilities. In particular, China seems to be firmly committed to the creation of a largely self-sustaining innovation system as part of a knowledge-based economy of the future. Such innovation systems, called positive feedback loop innovation systems or POLIS have been created by advanced countries, and NIEs such as South Korea and Taiwan are proceeding to create these as well. But this will add to its energy burden and further dependence on the US as the power which controls the key sea lanes. Only a strategic reorientation to building a self-sustaining POLIS and appropriate regional cooperation institutions can lead to the way out of the current dilemma for China. Fortunately, such a model of POLIS which is distributionally and ecologically sensitive can be built for China and applied strategically to lead towards a sustainable development trajectory.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, Environment, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and South Korea
17. China's Economic Growth: Trajectories and Evolving Institutions
- Author:
- Jun Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the institutional reason underlying the change in the trajectory of economic growth in post-reform China, and argues that the trajectory of growth was much more normal during the period of 1978-89 than in the post-1989 era. In the former period, growth was largely induced by equality-generating institutional change in agriculture and the emergence of non-state industrial sector. In the latter period, growth was triggered by the acceleration of capital investments under authoritarian decentralized hierarchy within self-contained regions. Such a growth trajectory accelerates capital deepening, deteriorating total factor productivity and leads to rising regional imbalance. This paper further argues that the change in the trajectory of growth is the outcome of changes in political and inter-governmental fiscal institutions following the 1989 political crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
18. China's Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries
- Author:
- Yuqing Xing
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand
19. Comparing Regional Development in China and India
- Author:
- Yanrui Wu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Economic growth in China and India has attracted many headlines recently. As a result, the literature comparing the two Asian giants has expanded substantially. This paper adds to the literature by comparing regional growth, disparity and convergence in the two economies. This is the first of its kind. The paper presents a detailed examination of economic growth in the regions of China and India over the past twenty years. It also provides an assessment of regional disparity in the two countries and investigates whether there is any evidence of regional convergence during the period of rapid economic growth. It attempts to identify the sources of regional disparity and hence draw policy implications for economic development in the two countries in the near future.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Asia
20. The Determinants of Child Weight and Height in Sri Lanka: A Quantile Regression Approach
- Author:
- Harsha Aturupane, Anil B. Deolalikar, and Dileni Gunewardena
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Reducing child malnutrition is a key goal of most developing countries. To combat child malnutrition with the right set of interventions, policymakers need to have a better understanding of its economic, social and policy determinants. While there is a large literature that investigates the determinants of child malnutrition, it focuses almost exclusively on mean effects of these determinants. However, socioeconomic background variables and policy interventions may affect child nutrition differently at different points of the conditional nutritional distribution. Using quantile regressions, this paper explores the effect s of variables such as a child's age, sex and birth order; household expenditure per capita; parental schooling; and infrastructure on child weight and height at different points of the conditional distributions of weight and height using data from Sri Lanka's Demographic and Health Survey. Results indicate that OLS estimates can be misleading in predicting the effects of determinants at the lower end of the distributions of weight and height. For example, even though on average Sri Lankan girls are not nutritionally-disadvantaged relative to boys, among children at the highest risk of malnutrition girls are disadvantaged relative to boys. Likewise, although expenditure per capita is associated with strong nutritional improvement on average, it is not a significant determinant of child height or weight at the lower end of the distribution. Similarly, parental education, electricity access, and the availability of piped water have larger effect son child weight and height at the upper quantiles than at the lower quantiles. The policy implication is that general interventions—parental schooling, infrastructure and income growth—are not as effective for children in the lower tail of the conditional weight and height distributions. These children, who are at the highest risk of malnutrition, are likely to need specialized nutritional interventions.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, and Health
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka