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11. The Quest to Launch Regional Integration Processes in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula

Author:
Christian Koch and Adnan Tabatabai
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Given the consequences that security issues yield for the Middle East and beyond and in spite of the failures to date, a regional security process where stakeholders can engage with one another remains a relevant and timely approach, which would be needed to move out of the region’s current cycle of instability. Based on the ongoing Tafahum project, a first step is to establish a shared understanding of regional security issues and what they entail before taking steps towards building a security “architecture” or “system”. In addition, regional cooperation must be framed around both conceptual and operational baskets. A broad agreement on principles of conduct, a focus on regional economic development and the development of civil society interactions are seen as essential elements around which such baskets can be put together.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Political stability, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

12. Russia's Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s

Author:
Ekaterina Stepanova
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As Russia has become a major external player in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to its military engagement in Syria since 2015, it has acted as a balancer and mediator in several regional controversies and has continued to serve as a security guarantor for the Syrian state. This course has brought Moscow some practical dividends, such as growing economic and military-technical cooperation with select MENA countries, and has spurred its broader international profile. However, entering the 2020s, the risks of more active engagement in the Middle East have also mounted, making Russia’s balancing act more difficult. In three cases where Russia’s involvement has been visible (Syria, Libya and the Israeli-Palestinian problem), evolving developments challenge Moscow’s acquired influence and multi-vector approach, but also create new opportunities for its engagement and mediation. Above all, the 2020 US–Iran crisis catalysed the urgent need for structured regional dialogue, especially across the Persian Gulf. While this requires direct interaction between the region’s main antagonists, the initial impulse to unlock the trans-Gulf impasse might need to come from the outside. A process-oriented blueprint for inclusive multilateral security in the Gulf proposed by Russia in 2019 is a step in the right direction, but to be activated it may need to come as part of some broader international initiative.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, and Syria

13. Emergency Powers, COVID-19 and the New Challenge for Human Rights

Author:
Michele Collazzo and Alexandra Tyan
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
“A human crisis that is fast becoming a human rights crisis”. UN Secretary General António Guterres was among the first to raise the alarm about possible human rights implications of government measures to fight COVID-19. Since its outbreak, 87 states – both authoritarian and established democracies – have declared a state of emergency to curb the spread of the virus, which implies certain derogations from international human rights conventions. Protecting the right to life and physical integrity are fundamental duties facing government authorities, commitments enshrined in law – specifically Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). Derogations from human rights conventions are permissible under certain circumstances, but any limitation must be motivated by absolute necessity, must not be disproportionate and must be limited in time.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Democracy, Media, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Prisons and Radicalization: Breaking the Cycle through Rehabilitation

Author:
Francesca Capano
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Concerns over migration, economic growth and the rise of populism seemed to overshadow the threat of terrorism in many European countries during 2018. While the number of attacks and alleged plots in Europe have declined considerably compared to previous years, experts have long warned that measuring the terrorism threat on the basis of successful attacks was a “mistake”.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Radicalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

15. The Outlook for Algeria

Author:
Joffé George
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Algeria today faces a triple crisis. The collapse in global oil prices during 2014 and 2015 has meant that its economic future is potentially extremely sombre. In political terms, the regime faces a complex and uncertain transition as the Bouteflika era comes to an end. Moreover, Algeria’s security environment is threatening, given the chaos in Libya, the emergence of extremism in Tunisia and the ongoing violence in northern Mali because of the extremist groups located there. This situation is further complicated by the persistence of “residual terrorism,” as the government terms it, inside Algeria itself and the chronic crisis with Morocco over the latter’s annexation of the Western Sahara in 1975. This paper analyses each of these factors in turn before seeking to outline short- to medium-term scenarios for the future.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Islam, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-62-0
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

16. From 9/11 to Da'esh: What Role for the High Representative and the External Dimension of EU Counter-Terrorism Policies?

Author:
Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Under certain conditions, such as security crises, an integrated external EU counter-terrorism policy can emerge without leading to the supra-nationalisation of policy-making. This paper analyses the role of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy with the objective of assessing the influence that such figure can have on the governance of EU counter-terrorism policies. It does so by assessing the EU’s response to three security crises, namely: the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent bombings in Madrid (2004) and London (2005); the Arab Spring and the following destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and the emergence and spread of Da’esh.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-53-8
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

17. The Future of Multilateral Security Dialogue in the Mediterranean: Lessons Learnt, Opportunities and Choices

Author:
Eduard Soler i Lecha
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is currently facing a number of challenges, ranging from political instability and intra-state conflicts to economic and social disparities and uncontrolled pockets of criminality. Although the conceptualisation of the Mediterranean as a region is often disputed, this is a space where initiatives for dialogue, cooperation and integration have proliferated in the last two decades as an attempt to tackle some of those challenges either regionally or multilaterally in cooperation with external partners. This paper overviews the existing initiatives, analyses why some previous attempts have failed and examines the elements of the new context that could favour or hinder further attempts to revive regional dialogue and integration, by identifying potential goals and relevant actors to be involved.
Topic:
Security

18. Thinking Beyond TAP: Turkey's Role in the Southern Energy Corridor

Author:
Fatih Özgür Yeni
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Energy security is one of the hot topics on the European energy agenda. The EU's Southern Energy Corridor initiative is an attempt to reduce dependence on Russian supplies by tapping into Caspian and Middle-Eastern natural gas resources. Turkey, who aspires to be a regional energy hub, has emerged as the key country in the Southern Corridor. Although the TAP project in its current state satisfies neither Turkey's energy hub ambitions nor the EU's resource diversification efforts, it may serve as the first building block of the Southern Corridor. There are promising developments in the region that can increase volumes and add new routes to the initiative. Private companies have already shown their interest in developing a pipeline infrastructure for possible South-East Mediterranean and Northern Iraq natural gas exports but complex geopolitical issues pose the greatest threat to the way ahead. Thanks to its unique location, Turkey is destined to be one of the key players in the Southern Corridor. The convergence of Turkey's energy hub ambitions and the EU's energy security objectives present mutual gains, but also demand sustained collaboration between the two in light of several technical, legal and political hurdles.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

19. Strategy and Its Role in the Future of European Defence Integration

Author:
Manuel Muniz
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
EU member states have proven incapable of clarity in their strategic planning, with their key strategic documents almost inevitably abstract and ambiguous. This is extremely unfortunate because without a clear catalogue of interests and an understanding of their location around the world it is impossible to determine a country's appropriate force structure, let alone conduct a coherent and effective foreign and defence policy. This lack of rigor in strategic planning is hurting European defence integration, as states are unable to have transparent and constructive debates about the interests they share. It would be wise to incorporate into the strategic planning process a model that allows for the capturing and quantifying of states' interests. Such a process might lead to the realization that EU member states share more strategic interests than is at first apparent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

20. The European Commission's Policy Towards the Southern Gas Corridor: Between National Interests and Economic Fundamentals

Author:
Nicolò Sartori
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union launched the ambitious Southern Gas Corridor initiative with the goal of enhancing the security of its energy supply. The corridor - a virtual transit route running from the gas-rich Caspian basin to the EU while bypassing Russian soil - is meant to increase diversification of the EU's supplier and transit countries. While various projects have been proposed to give life to the corridor, the European Commission has given particular support to the realisation of Nabucco, a 3,893km pipeline running from Turkey to the European gas hub of Baumgarten in Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. The Commission's choice is, however, flawed in several respects, as it fails to take account of key factors, such as the diverging, and sometimes conflicting, interests of individual EU member states, the geopolitical challenges of the Caspian basin, and the commercial constraints on Nabucco. This short-sighted approach has hindered the efficient development of the Southern Gas Corridor and weakened the EU's energy policy.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria