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42. Montenegro: Settling for Independence?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International relief at the fall of the regime of Slobodan Miloević has been marred by dismay at the prospect of a breakaway from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) by Montenegro. As long as Milo.ević was in power, the international community supported Montenegro.s moves to distance itself from Belgrade. With Milo.ević gone, it was widely expected that Belgrade and Podgorica could patched up their relationship, and find a satisfactory accommodation within the framework of the FRY. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović.s decision to opt instead for independence has caused international consternation.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Montenegro
43. Bosnia's November Elections: Dayton Stumbles
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite five years and five billion US dollars of international community investment in Bosnia, the 11 November Bosnian elections demonstrated once again that international engagement has failed to provide a sustainable basis for a functioning state, capable of surviving an international withdrawal.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe
44. Montenegro: Which Way Next?
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The removal of Slobodan Milošević's regime, with its poisonous influence on the entire Balkan region, raises hopes that a host of inter-connected problems may now stand a significantly better chance of being resolved, including the future status of Kosovo and of Montenegro, both notionally still a part of the Yugoslav federation.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Montenegro
45. War Criminals in Bosnia's Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighbourhood?
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to almost four years of bloody war in Bosnia, many of those believed to have carried out some of the war's worst atrocities remain at large. The continued presence in the municipalities of Republika Srpska (RS) of individuals suspected of war crimes—some indicated either publicly or secretly by the International War Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—represents a significant obstacle to the return of ethnic minority refugees. It also undermines seriously Bosnia's chances for building central institutions, generating self-sustainable economic growth, and achieving the political transformation necessary to begin the process of integration with the rest of Europe. Moreover, the continued commitment of most war crimes suspects to the goal of a Greater Serbia, and their willingness to use violence to achieve it, could—in the long term—provoke renewed conflict in Bosnia and continued instability in the Balkans.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans
46. Reaction in Kosovo to Kostunica's Victory
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While the world watched in fascination as mass demonstrations in Belgrade toppled Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power, Kosovo—where Milosevic had committed some of his worst crimes—had an almost eerie air of normalcy. On the night Milosevic fell, cafés were full and the usual crowd of young people strolled along Pristina's central artery, Mother Theresa Street. But Pristina's surface in difference masked serious unease about events in Serbia and especially about the swelling international welcome for newly elected President Vojislav Kostunica. Kosovo Albania's political circles, opinion leaders, and public, which for long had a head-in-the-sand approach toward the rise of the democratic opposition in Belgrade, are only beginning to come to grips with the changed political landscape in the Balkans caused by Milosevic's fall.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania
47. Sanctions Against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As governments embark on the process of lifting sanctions against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), following the victory of opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica in Presidential elections held on 24 September 2000, this briefing paper sets forth a comprehensive list of sanctions currently in place against the FRY and the current status of FRY participation and/or membership in international organisations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Yugoslavia
48. Yugoslavia's Presidential Elections: The Serbian People's Moment of Truth
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since the International Crisis Group's (ICG's) last paper addressing the Serbian political scene, the situation on the ground inside Serbia has changed dramatically. Once Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic announced, on 27 July 2000, the 24 September date for simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and municipal elections in Serbia, the previously fractious opposition rapidly and unexpectedly united behind the nomination of Vojislav Kostunica, a constitutional lawyer and self-styled democratic nationalist with no ties to the regime or the West.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
49. Current Legal Status of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and of Serbia and Montenegro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The deteriorating relationship between Montenegro and Belgrade has raised the question of whether the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with its two constituent republics of Serbia and Montenegro, in fact continues to exist. The answer to this question has immediate relevance to the forthcoming federal elections scheduled for 24 September 2000, and in particular the issues of: whether the government of Montenegro can legitimately boycott those elections, in the sense of refusing to co-operate in their physical conduct and encouraging Montenegrins not to vote; and whether the federal government is entitled to take any, and if so what, action in response to the Montenegrin government so deciding. This legal briefing paper seeks, in this context, to address the following questions: What precedents were set by the decisions of the European Community (EC) Arbitration Commission concerning the status of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) and its Republics that might be relevant to an assessment of the current legal status of the FRY? What actions have been taken by the FRY federal government, the Republic of Montenegro, the Republic of Serbia, or the international community that may affect the status of the FRY and the legitimacy of its government and federal institutions? What is the current status of the FRY, its government and federal institutions, and how does this affect Montenegro's obligation to participate in the 24 September 2000 federal elections?
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
50. Macedonian Government Expects Setback in Local Elections
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Macedonian electorate will drag itself wearily to the polls on 10 September 2000. This year's local elections follow the 1999 presidential election, 1998 parliamentary elections, and 1996 local elections. The chronic campaign cycle, seemingly endless political sloganeering, and constant criticism from international observers have created fatigue among the electorate. As in 1996, the local elections will have hardly anything to do with running municipal governments, and everything to do with validating the current national government. Early polls indicate most voters will use the opportunity to voice their frustration against the ruling coalition.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Macedonia
51. Kosovo Report Card
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Over its first 15 months the international mission in Kosovo has a number of accomplishments to its credit. These include negotiating an agreement with the Kosovo Liberation army (KLA) to disband and to publicly commit to hand over its weapons - although few believe the KLA's disarmament has been complete; heading off, in the early months after the war, an incipient conflict between backers of the KLA and the other major political force in Kosovo, Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo(LDK); creating the framework of an administrative structure for Kosovo, and mobilising humanitarian assistance that helped feed and get more than one million Kosovo refugees into homes or temporary shelters before the first post-war winter.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
52. Albania's Local Elections: A Test of Stability and Democracy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Local elections in Albania on 1 October 2000 will mark the first test of popular support for the ruling Socialist-led coalition since it came to power following the violent uprising in 1997. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), whose Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) will be leading the monitoring effort, deems these elections to be of critical importance. Albania's electoral process has traditionally been bedevilled by the same handicaps encountered in most other institutional areas: namely, inadequate legislation, capacity deficiencies, politicisation of the process, and lack of all round political support. It is vitally important for Albania's democracy and international reputation that this year's elections do not repeat the mistakes of the recent past.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
53. Serbia: The Milosevic Regime on the Eve of September Elections
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The regime in Serbia has recovered its footing after the 1999 war with NATO and remains as hard-line as ever. Learning and gaining experience over the years has enabled the regime to “improve” its performance and become more efficient. Most analysts in Serbia agree that Milosevic will be able to stay in power indefinitely.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Serbia
54. Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ten Years after independence, Macedonia's two largest ethnic groups continue to lead very separate and distinct lives. The uneasy co-existence between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians has only just withstood the violent breakup of Yugoslavia and the continuing instability in Kosovo. Valid concerns about Macedonia's security are too often being used to justify postponing hard decisions about internal problems. Political leaders on both sides of the ethnic divide, while negotiating privately for piecemeal improvements, publicly cater to the more extreme nationalists in their respective parties, and positions are hardening. There is a continued reluctance to squarely confront the compromises that would legally safeguard Macedonia's multi-ethnic composition: if that reluctance is not soon overcome, Macedonia and the region face renewed instability.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania
55. Elections in Kosovo: Moving Towards Democracy?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the fall of 2000, for the first time of their history, the people of Kosovo are being promised the opportunity to participate in democratic, internationally supervised local elections. The elections offer the people of Kosovo the opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to democracy. They also present the international mission in Kosovo with a test of its resolve to overcome the political and practical problems associated with holding elections in a territory still suffering from the physical and the political scars of war.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
56. Reality Demands: Documenting Violations of International Humanitarian Law in Kosovo 1999
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This report is the product of seven months of field research conducted by teams of local and international personnel in Kosovo and Albania in 1999, as part of the International Crisis Group's Humanitarian Law Documentation Project. The Project was conceived in the spring of 1999, as violence and destruction in Kosovo forced hundreds of thousands of men, women and children from their homes, many seeking shelter in neighbouring Albania and The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (hereafter referred to as Macedonia).The purpose of the Project was to support the efforts of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (“the Tribunal”or “the ICTY”) to investigate serious violations of international humanitarian law committed in Kosovo and bring to justice persons responsible for such crimes.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania
57. Serbia's Grain Trade: Milosevic's Hidden Cash Crop
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nearly a year after NATO defeated Serbia in the war over Kosovo, the international community appears uncertain about how to remove Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
58. Kosovo's Linchpin: Overcoming Division In Mitrovica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Mitrovica has become the linchpin of Kosovo's future united status. The stakes are high. If the international community cannot re-establish Mitrovica as a single city, efforts to preserve a united Kosovo will also fail.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Mitrovica
59. Bosnia's refugee logjam breaks: is the international community ready?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After four and a half year of concerted efforts by the international community, significant numbers of minority refugees are returning spontaneously to areas of Bosnia controlled by heretofore hostile ethnic majorities. This provides an opportunity to reverse wartime ethnic cleansing and make substantial progress toward achieving a core goal of the international community and the Dayton Peace Agreement. The requirement for modestly increased reconstruction and security assistance to facilitate this process, however, poses a challenge for governments and international aid and security organisations, many of which are seeking to wind down their Bosnia commitments. Absent such international community support and increased Bosnian government co-operation, the ceiling for returns may be low, and could jeopardise the success of current and future return efforts.
- Topic:
- Migration and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
60. Serbia's Embattled Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent crackdown by the Belgrade regime on Serbia's independent media and political activists suggests that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is more vulnerable than it would appear. Since the Kosovo war ended, Milosevic has proven unable to expand his support base and must struggle with diminishing resources to keep restive constituencies intact. Despite its recognised weakness, the Serbian opposition is capable under certain conditions of removing Milosevic from power and offering better governance. The message of numerous public opinion polls over the past eight moths is that there is an anti-Milosvic majority in Serbia, but that the opposition must work together in coalitions to exploit it.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia