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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Resolution Political Geography Africa Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution International Crisis Group

21. Sudan's Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended Sudan's generation-long North-South civil war in 2005 is at risk in Southern Kordofan state, where many of the same ingredients exist that produced the vicious Darfur conflict. Both parties to that agreement, the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), who together form the Government of National Unity in Khartoum, have been guilty of mistakes and misjudgements there as they manoeuvre for partisan advantage in advance of national elections scheduled for 2009. Any strategy for addressing the problems must recognise that time is short. Concrete progress on integration and reform is essential to address the prospect of what could be a devastating new conflict. Rapid interventions are needed, well before the national elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

22. Timor-Leste's Displacement Crisis

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The shooting of President José Ramos-Horta in February 2008 underscored the urgency of addressing sources of conflict and violence in Timor-Leste. The unresolved displacement crisis is one of the important problems, both a consequence of past conflict and a potential source of future trouble. Nearly two years after the country descended into civil conflict in April 2006, more than 100,000 people remain displaced. Successive governments and their international partners have failed to bring about the conditions in which they might return home or to prevent further waves of displacements. The new government's national recovery strategy needs to be properly funded and accompanied by a number of other crucial elements, most significantly the creation of a fair and functioning land and property regime, an increase in overall housing stock, an end to the cycle of impunity and reform of the justice and security sectors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

23. Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 29 March 2008 elections have dramatically changed Zimbabwe's political landscape. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe ran second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. The MDC went to the polls deeply divided, but Morgan Tsvangirai and his party regained their authority by winning despite an uneven playing field. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a countrywide crackdown. Zimbabwe is in constitutional limbo: it has no elected president or legally constituted cabinet, parliament has not been convened, and ZANU-PF and the MDC are challenging half the parliamentary results in court. African leaders, with support from the wider international community, must step in to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by facilitating an agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government that avoids the need for the run-off now scheduled for 27 June.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

24. Beyond the Fragile Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Averting New War

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia's refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering terri­tory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

25. Sierra Leone: A New Era of Reform?

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sierra Leone has made much progress since the civil war ended in 2002, but a number of social and economic time bombs must still be defused if an enduring peace is to be built. The 2007 elections, in which Ernest Bai Koroma won the presidency and his All People's Congress (APC) wrested the parliament from the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP), restored legitimacy to the electoral process. Koroma's reform agenda promises much but must overcome big challenges. The majority of the population lives in abject poverty, and an ever-growing army of unemployed, socially alienated youth is a perennial threat to security. Patronage networks and identity politics, though evolving, continue to constrain government decisions. The new government faces a fundamental political challenge in building public confidence in its agenda, while donor support to post-war reconstruction is gradually scaled down. It needs to do more than call for “attitudinal change” and a renewed “social con- tract” if it is to improve accountability and combat corruption. The UN Peacebuilding Commission can make a major contribution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

26. Ending Zimbabwe's Nightmare: A Possible Way Forward - Africa Briefing No. 56

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The inter-party negotiations that have sought to end Zimbabwe's political, economic and now full-blown humanitarian crisis following the fraudulent June 2008 presidential election run-off are hopelessly deadlocked. Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF will not accept genuine power sharing, and Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are unwilling to join a ZANU-PF dominated administration as a junior partner, responsible for ending international isolation but without authority to implement needed reforms and emergency humanitarian relief.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

27. Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of collapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military intervention since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world's worst humanitarian and security crises. The international community is preoccupied with a symptom - the piracy phenomenon - instead of concentrating on the core of the crisis, the need for a political settlement. The announced Ethiopian withdrawal, if it occurs, will open up a new period of uncertainty and risk. It could also provide a window of opportunity to relaunch a credible political process, however, if additional parties can be persuaded to join the Djibouti reconciliation talks, and local and international actors - including the U.S. and Ethiopia - accept that room must be found for much of the Islamist insurgency in that process and ultimately in a new government dispensation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

28. Central African Republic: Untangling the Political Dialogue

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A aucun moment depuis le coup d'Etat du 15 mars 2003, qui a porté au pouvoir l'actuel président François Bozizé, le risque d'une généralisation de la violence en Centrafrique n'a été aussi grand qu'aujourd'hui. Alors que l'ouverture d'un dialogue politique inclusif le 8 décembre – initialement prévue pour juin 2008 – continue de se négocier pied à pied, tant le régime en place que les principales forces d'opposition prépa- rent, en fait, le recours à la lutte armée comme ultima ratio d'une sortie de crise. Une réelle démocratisation et une réforme de l'Etat semblent possibles si les acteurs centrafricains arrivent à surmonter leurs désaccords d'une manière consensuelle et s'abstiennent de recourir à la violence pour accéder au pouvoir ou pour le garder. Le dialogue politique incl usif doit impérativement être recentré sur l'organisation des élections en 2010 et la négociation d'un mécanisme crédible de justice transitionnelle. Afin d'éviter une nouvelle prise de pouvoir par la force, le gouvernement centrafricain doit conduire à terme la réfo rme du secteur de sécurité et permettre un processus équitable d'intégration des forces rebelles dans les services de sécurité.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa

29. Chad: A New Conflict Resolution Framework - Africa Report N°144

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The political and security crisis Chad faces is internal, and has been exacerbated rather than caused by the meddling of its Sudanese neighbours. Power has been monopolised by a Zaghawa military clan with President Idriss Déby at the top since 1990, leading to increased violence in political and social relations, ethnic tensions and distribution of the spoils of government on the basis of clan favouritism. Neither return to a multi-party system in 1990, enhanced government revenues from newly exploited oil reserves since 2004, nor elections backed by Chad's Western allies have brought democracy or improved governance. The international community must press for an internal reconciliation process focused on reforming the Chadian state, particularly its administration and security sector, and ending the armed insurgency. At the same time, a regional process must be revived to address longstanding disputes between Chad and Sudan and eliminate the pattern of proxy war and support for each other's rebels.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Chad

30. Zimbabwe: Prospects from a Flawed Election

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The regional mediation offering the most realistic chance to resolve Zimbabwe's eight-year crisis has failed. South African President Thabo Mbeki's stated objective in talks between the ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) was to secure conditions for free and fair elections that would produce an undisputed outcome. But on 29 March 2008, Zimbabwe will hold elections already flawed by pre-poll misbehaviour, notwithstanding what may occur on polling day and thereafter. The results are likely to be heatedly disputed. Though the playing field is far from even, and efforts to create a united opposition have failed, ex-ZANU-PF politburo member Simba Makoni is seriously challenging Robert Mugabe's re-election. The 84-year-old president probably has the means to manipulate the process sufficiently to retain his office, though possibly only after a violent run-off, but there is little prospect of a government emerging that is capable of ending the crisis. If the situation deteriorates, the African Union (AU) needs to be ready to offer prompt mediation for a power-sharing agreement between presidential contenders and creation of a transitional government with a reform agenda.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe