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2. Competing visions for Syria and Iraq: The Myth of an anti-ISIS coalition
- Author:
- Jennifer Cafarella
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP will publish the findings of this exercise in multiple reports. The first report examined America’s global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda.[1] This second report defines American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare U.S. objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences. The differences mean that the U.S. cannot rely heavily on international partners to achieve its objectives. Subsequent reports will provide a detailed assessment of the situation on the ground in Syria and present the planning group’s evaluation of several courses of action.
- Topic:
- International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria
3. Afghanistan Order of Battle
- Author:
- Morgan Wesley
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Afghanistan ORBAT (PDF) describes the location and area of responsibility of all American units in Afghanistan, down to the battalion level, updated as of February 2016..
- Topic:
- International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
4. Iraq's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
5. Hezbollah in Syria
- Author:
- Marisa Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah's deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
6. The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Anbar is not the only front in Iraq on which Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), now operating as the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), is fighting in 2014. ISIS has also established a governorate in Diyala. Its spokesman has named the province the central front in the sectarian conflict he has urged. The security situation and sectarian tension in Diyala province are grave. ISIS has returned to fixed fighting positions within Muqdadiyah, Baqubah, and the Diyala River Valley. Shi'a militias are now active in these areas as well. Increasing instances of population displacement demonstrate the aggregate effect of targeted violence by both groups. It is important to estimate the effects of this displacement and the presence of armed groups within Diyala's major cities in order to understand how deteriorated security conditions in this province will interfere with Iraq's upcoming parliamentary elections. Furthermore, violence in Diyala has historically both driven and reflected inter-ethnic and inter-sectarian violence in other mixed areas of Iraq, including Baghdad. Diyala is therefore a significant bellwether for how quickly these types of violence will spread to other provinces.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
7. Assad Strikes Damascus
- Author:
- Valerie Szybala
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Damascus is the Syrian regime's center of gravity. The capital of Syria has long been viewed by the rebel forces as the key to winning the war in Syria, and its loss is unthinkable for Bashar al-Assad. Thus the struggle for Damascus is existential for the regime as well as the opposition. An operational understanding of the battle for Damascus is critical to understanding the imminent trajectory of the war. This report details the course of the conflict as it engulfed Damascus in 2013; laying out the regime's strategy and describing the political and military factors that shaped its decisions on the battlefield.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Civil War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
8. Hezbollah in Syria
- Author:
- Marisa Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah's deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.
- Topic:
- International Relations, War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Lebanon and Syria
9. Iraq's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Ninewa, Anbar, and Diyala
10. ISIS Governance in Syria
- Author:
- Charles C. Caris and Samuel Reynolds
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State's June 2014 announcement of a “caliphate” is not empty rhetoric. In fact, the idea of the caliphate that rests within a controlled territory is a core part of ISIS's political vision. The ISIS grand strategy to realize this vision involves first establishing control of terrain through military conquest and then reinforcing this control through governance. This grand strategy proceeds in phases that have been laid out by ISIS itself in its publications, and elaborates a vision that it hopes will attract both fighters and citizens to its nascent state. The declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, however, raises the question: can ISIS govern?
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Syria