Search

You searched for: Content Type Working Paper Remove constraint Content Type: Working Paper Publishing Institution Institute for National Strategic Studies Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies Topic Security Remove constraint Topic: Security
Number of results to display per page

Search Results

  • Author: Patrice Franko
  • Publication Date: 01-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Brazil is a puzzling new player in the global system. Emerging as a complex international actor, it has come to be seen as a significant economic competitor and dynamic force in world politics. But transformational changes in the economic and political realms have not been accompanied by advances in military power. While Brazil has entered the world stage as an agile soft power exercising influence in setting global agendas and earning a seat at the economic table of policymakers, its military capacity lags. The national security strategy announced under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2008 intended to redress this power gap. President Dilma Rousseff 's 2011 White Paper—so detailed that it is called a "White Book"—provides the conceptual roadmap to achieve a new military balance. But military modernization is still a work in progress.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: Brazil, Latin America
  • Author: Christopher J. Lamb
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Military assistance to Bosnian forces was part of a complex plan to resolve what one former Secretary of State called "the problem from hell." When Yugoslavia began to disintegrate in the early 1990s following the Soviet Union's demise, it released a mix of nationalist and ethnic movements that led to civil war. Ill-disciplined combinations of regular and irregular forces struggled to control territory and protect civilians, sometimes herding them toward ethnically homogenous enclaves in a process widely referred to as "ethnic cleansing." The intentional displacement of civilian populations, often encouraged by atrocities including mass murder and rape, was a tragic and complex foreign policy problem that defied simple and easy solutions.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, Sectarian violence, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Yugoslavia, Balkans
  • Author: Andre LeSage
  • Publication Date: 10-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Despite its reputation for peace and stability in a troubled region, the East African country of Tanzania is experiencing a rising number of militant Islamist attacks that have targeted local Christian leaders and foreign tourists, as well as popular bars and restaurants. These attacks, which began in 2012, rarely make the headlines of international media. However, they should serve as a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers to increase short-term engagement with Tanzanian officials and support for Tanzanian security agencies to preempt the emergence of a more significant threat to U.S. and international interests in East Africa.
  • Topic: Security, Islam, Terrorism, International Security
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Tanzania
  • Author: Phillip C. Saunders
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Upon taking office in January 2009, Obama administration officials proclaimed a U.S. “return to Asia.” This pronouncement was backed with more frequent travel to the region by senior officials (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first trip was to Asia) and increased U.S. participation in regional multilateral meetings, culminating in the decision to sign the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and to participate in the East Asia Summit (EAS) at the head-of-state level. The strategic “rebalance to Asia” announced in November 2011 builds on these earlier actions to deepen and institutionalize U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific region.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, Asia
  • Author: John W. Parker, Michael Kofman
  • Publication Date: 03-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Russia's institution of a ban on American adoptions of Russian orphans, an appalling response by the Duma to U.S. sanctions against officials involved in the Sergei Magnitsky case,1 was a clear indicator that bilateral relations will assume a lower priority in the next 4 years for both capitals. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the measure despite open misgivings by some of his own key aides and against the opposition of most of Russia's civil society. The Russian Internet response was scathing, producing an instant winner for best sick joke of 2012: “An educated American family has decided to adopt a developmentally disabled Duma deputy.”.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Judith S. Yaphe
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Nearly 3 years since the start of the Syrian civil war, no clear winner is in sight. Assassinations and defections of civilian and military loyalists close to President Bashar al-Asad, rebel success in parts of Aleppo and other key towns, and the spread of violence to Damascus itself suggest that the regime is losing ground to its opposition. The tenacity of government forces in retaking territory lost to rebel factions, such as the key town of Qusayr, and attacks on Turkish and Lebanese military targets indicate, however, that the regime can win because of superior military equipment, especially airpower and missiles, and help from Iran and Hizballah. No one is prepared to confidently predict when the regime will collapse or if its opponents can win.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria
  • Author: David C. Gompert, Michael Kofman
  • Publication Date: 01-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United States and Russia have sought to reduce the danger of nuclear war by limiting offensive strategic capabilities through negotiated agreements, relying on mutual deterrence based on reciprocal threats and the corresponding fear of retaliation. Although nuclear arsenals have been pared, this is fundamentally the same way the United States and Soviet Union sought to reduce the danger of nuclear war during the Cold War, when both were impelled to do so because they were adversaries and able to do so despite being adversaries. It is ironic—not to say unimaginative—that although the two are no longer adversaries, they stick to a path chosen when they were. This current approach is inadequate given new strategic vulnerabilities brought on by technological change. Both the opportunity and the need now exist for a different, more ambitious approach to avoiding strategic conflict—one designed for new possibilities as well as new vulnerabilities. The United States and Russia can and should raise their sights from linear numerical progress to qualitative transformation of their strategic relationship.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Isabelle François
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In 2012, the U.S. Department of Defense published Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense. In this strategy document, the Defense Department outlines the new focus of U.S. efforts on threats emanating primarily from South Asia and the Middle East, spelling out the U.S. commitment to address them by working with allies and partners, acknowledging Europe as the “home to some of America's most stalwart allies and partners.” It clearly states that the United States “has enduring interests in supporting peace and prosperity in Europe as well as bolstering the strength and vitality of NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization], which is critical to the security of Europe and beyond.” Moreover, the document characterizes engagement with Russia as important and reiterates U.S. commitment to continue efforts toward building a closer relationship in areas of mutual interest, encouraging Russia to be a contributor across a broad range of issues. The strategic environment will therefore remain one of partnership with Europe and Russia as nations work out the consequences of a rebalancing of forces in the near future.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Patrick Clawson
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: U.S. policy toward the continued rule of Syrian President Bashar al- Asad is partly based on the impact his rule has had in Syria. Asad's fall might not bring improvement for the Syrian people. But the argument that Asad, odious as he may be, provides stability now looks less and less convincing. Whether Asad stays or falls, the current Syrian unrest could have profound implications on the Middle East in at least four ways: the impact on Iran, Asad's closest strategic partner; the perception of the power of the United States and its allies; the stability of neighboring states; and the impact on Israel. The more Asad falls on hard times, the more Tehran has to scramble to prevent damage to its image with the “Arab street” and to its close ally, Lebanese Hizballah. Asad's overthrow is by no means assured, and U.S. instruments to advance that objective are limited. The U.S. Government decision to call for his overthrow seems to have rested on a judgment that the prospects for success were good and the payoff in the event of success would be high.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Government, Insurgency
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia, Syria
  • Author: Michael Kofman, Richard B. Andres
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: On January 7, 2009, the existing energy relationship among Europe, Russia, and Ukraine broke down over a natural gas dispute, just as it had done 3 years earlier. Amid subzero temperatures in many parts of Europe, Russia turned off its gas supply to Ukraine, causing shortages in more than 20 European countries. Thousands across the continent were left in the dark, and government services were closed. While the flow of gas was eventually restored, Russian gas disputes with Ukraine continue, and the prospect of another Gazprom shutoff has become an annual event for European consumers. Despite earlier indications that another breakdown in negotiations would lead to blackouts in Europe early in 2010, the potential crisis was averted via a Russia-Ukraine deal that restructured earlier payment and pricing arrangements. However, it is doubtful that Ukraine can continue timely payments for its domestic gas consumption and maintain its own pipeline infrastructure. Fundamental changes to Russia-Ukraine energy transport agreements are coming.
  • Topic: Security, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe
  • Author: Evan Munsing, Christopher Lamb
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Joint Interagency Task Force-South (JIATF-South) is well known within the U.S. Government as the "gold standard" for interagency cooperation and intelligence fusion, despite its preference for keeping a low profile and giving other agencies the credit for its successes. It is often cited as a model for whole-of-government problem-solving in the literature on interagency collaboration, and other national security organizations have tried to copy its approach and successes. Despite the plaudits and attention, the way that JIATF-South actually operates has only received superficial analysis. In fact, few people actually understand why JIATF-South works as well as it does or how its success might be replicated.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, War on Drugs, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Phillip C. Saunders, Ross Rustici
  • Publication Date: 07-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The People's Republic of China (PRC) State Council Information Office released the seventh edition of its biennial defense white paper, "China's National Defense in 2010," on March 31, 2011. This document aims to communicate the latest information on China's military development, strategy, capabilities, and intentions. China began publishing defense white papers in 1998, partly as a means of increasing transparency in response to regional concerns about the growing capabilities and actions of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Despite the systematic release of these documents, many of China's neighbors and other regional powers continue to express concerns about China's lack of military transparency. The Chinese maintain that they are becoming more open over time and highlight the importance of transparency about strategic intentions rather than capabilities.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: China, Israel
  • Author: Jerry Warner, James Ramsbotham, Ewelina Tunia, James J. Valdes
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Evaluating the potential threats posed by advances in biotechnology, especially genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and synthetic biology remains a contentious issue. Some believe that, inevitably, these advances will lead to a catastrophic biological attack. Others believe that, despite these advances, the scientific and technical requirements, as well as the fundamental laws of natural selection will prevent such an attack.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Biosecurity
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Mark Fields, Ramsha Ahmed
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Ten years ago in Bonn, Germany, the United Nations Envoy to Afghanistan, Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, and U.S. Envoy to the Afghan Opposition, Ambassador James Dobbins, led a diverse group of international diplomats and warriors to consensus and charted the political course for Afghanistan well into the decade. The process that led to the Bonn Agreement (Bonn 2001, or Bonn I) reflects the best of U.S. and United Nations statesmanship and was the result of the effective application of military and diplomatic power.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, United Nations, War, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Germany
  • Author: Gregory L. Schulte
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United States has a great interest in the success of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), given the important role it can play in reducing the risks of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. Stalled investigations of Iran and Syria have put the credibility of the IAEA at stake. The agency detected neither Iran’s hidden uranium enrichment facility near Qom nor the reactor being constructed by Syria near al Kibar. These examples underscore the importance of strengthening the agency’s verification capability, by both increasing its authority and sharing more information. The IAEA can also help shape the global growth of nuclear power, ensuring the highest levels of safety and security, while discouraging the spread of sensitive technologies that can be misused to build nuclear weapons. The IAEA Board of Governors’ recent decision to establish a nuclear fuel bank in Russia is a step in the right direction. Success requires a new “Spirit of Vienna”—a willingness of delegates to work toward consensus on even difficult topics—surrounding the agency’s important role in nonproliferation. It also requires a conscious effort by the new Director General to remove the politics from IAEA business and return the agency to its technical mandate.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Iran, Syria, Vienna
  • Author: Victor E. Renuart, Jr., Biff Baker
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United States and Mexico share a common history shaped by military incursions during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The bond between the American and Mexican people, however, has continued to grow closer over time despite occasional negative rhetoric from politicians in Washington, DC, and Mexico City. At local and state levels, relations solidified through the closely knit fabric of our border towns, intermarriage between families on each side of the border, and the development of infrastructure (to include water, wastewater, and gas and electricity utilities) that serves communities to the north and south. At the national level, our relationship became closer due to economic growth resulting from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which now accounts for almost $1 billion (U.S. dollars) in trade per day between the two countries.
  • Topic: Security, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Washington, Latin America, North America, Mexico
  • Author: John P. Caves, Jr.
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United States needs to modernize and ensure the long-term reliability and respon¬siveness of its aging nuclear deterrent force and nuclear weapons infrastructure. It cannot otherwise safely reduce its nuclear weapons, responsibly ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, confidently deter and contain challenges from rising or resurgent nuclear-armed near peers, and effectively dissuade allies and partners from acquiring their own nuclear weapons. Modernization is fundamental to avoiding a future crisis of confidence in the U.S. nuclear deterrent..
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Phillip C. Saunders, Michael Kiselycznyk
  • Publication Date: 08-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: This study reviews the last 20 years of academic literature on the role of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Chinese elite politics. It examines the PLA's willingness to support the continued rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and to obey directives from top party leaders, the PLA's influence on the selection of China's top civilian leaders, and the PLA's ability to shape the domestic political environment. Over the last two decades the discussion of these three issues has largely been shaped by five trends identified in the literature: increasing PLA professionalism, bifurcation of civil and military elites, a reduced PLA role in political institutions, reduced emphasis on political work within the PLA, and increased military budgets. Together, these trends are largely responsible for the markedly reduced role of the PLA in Chinese elite politics.
  • Topic: Security, Government
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: T.X. Hammes
  • Publication Date: 10-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In Iraq and Afghanistan, the use of contractors reached a level unprecedented in U.S. military operations. As of March 31, 2010, the United States deployed 175,000 troops and 207,000 contractors in the war zones. Contractors represented 50 percent of the Department of Defense (DOD) workforce in Iraq and 59 percent in Afghanistan. These numbers include both armed and unarmed contractors. Thus, for the purposes of this paper, the term contractor includes both armed and unarmed personnel unless otherwise specified. The presence of contractors on the battlefield is obviously not a new phenomenon but has dramatically increased from the ratio of 1 contractor to 55 military personnel in Vietnam to 1:1 in the Iraq and 1.43:1 in Afghanistan.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Privatization, War, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq
  • Author: Najim Abed Al-Jabouri
  • Publication Date: 08-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: As U.S. Armed Forces draw down in Iraq, there is increasing concern about the possibility of resurgent ethnic and sectarian tensions. Many Iraqis believe that the United States may be making a grave mistake by not fully using its remaining leverage to insulate the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) from the political influence of the incumbent Iraqi sectarian political parties. U.S. efforts to rebuild the ISF have focused on much needed training and equipment, but have neglected the greatest challenge facing the forces' ability to maintain security upon U.S. withdrawal: an ISF politicized by ethno-sectarian parties. These ties pose the largest obstacle to the ISF in its quest to become genuinely professional and truly national in character.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Arabia
  • Author: Phillip C. Saunders
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) and National War College (NWC) jointly hosted a conference on “Sun Zi's Art of War and U.S. Joint Professional Military Education” on October 6, 2009. This was the first conference to bring together leading academic experts and faculty from all major U.S. military academies and senior Service schools. The morning session, an integral part of the NWC core course on war and statecraft, featured speakers who explored the historical context and modern military applications of Sun Zi. The afternoon session provided a forum for dialogue and an exchange of ideas between leading academic experts from civilian institutions and professors and military practitioners who teach Art of War at professional military education (PME) institutions. The panelists addressed a range of topics relevant to how to teach Sun Zi, including identifying best practices and potential pitfalls, translation issues, research gaps, and opportunities to engage foreign counterparts.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, War, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: James J. Przystup, Kang Choi
  • Publication Date: 03-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In thinking about the future direction of the alliance between the United States and South Korea, one needs to start in the past. For in this case, the past is truly prologue. More than a decade ago, as President George H.W. Bush came into office, structural changes in the security landscape of Asia were becoming manifest. The Cold War was winding down. Congress and the American public were looking for returns on the “peace dividend.” There was a clear expectation that cuts would be coming across the board — and in Asia, these cuts would begin with the Korean Peninsula.
  • Topic: Security, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, Asia, South Korea, Korea
  • Author: Rust Deming
  • Publication Date: 11-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Japan's postwar defense policy was set by the 1947 constitution. Early in the occupation, General Douglas MacArthur and his staff concluded that the 19th-century Meiji constitution needed to be revised or entirely replaced if Japan were to become a true democracy, with the Emperor removed from any political role. In January 1946, convinced that the elitist and authoritarian Japanese establishment was incapable of producing a democratic constitution, MacArthur ordered his staff to produce a draft. One week later, an entirely rewritten constitution emerged and was presented to the Japanese. Included in the draft was Article IX: War as a sovereign right of the nation is abolished. The threat or use of force is forever renounced as a means of settling disputes with any other nation. No Army, Navy, Air Force, or other war potential will ever be authorized and no right of belligerency will ever be conferred upon the state.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, International Law
  • Political Geography: Japan
  • Author: M. Elaine Bunn
  • Publication Date: 08-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: If all goes according to plan, by the end of 2004, the United States will deploy eight groundbased midcourse defense (GMD) interceptors1 in Alaska and California, along with land-, sea-, and space-based sensors and the command and control systems to support the interceptors. By the end of 2005, 12 more GMD interceptors will be added, along with additional sensors and interceptor missiles on Navy ships.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: California
  • Author: Eugene B. Rumer
  • Publication Date: 04-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The year 2003 was a difficult one in U.S.- Russian relations, and 2004 promises to be even more challenging. Disagreements between Washington and Moscow over Iraq were the most visible in a series of events that also included American concerns about Chechnya, the authoritarian tilt in Russian domestic politics, Russia's fading media freedom, selective prosecution of independent-minded businessmen, and meddling in the internal affairs of its neighbors. Together, these events add up to a trend that spells trouble for the ambitious U.S.-Russian strategic framework inaugurated by President George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin in 2002. Yet rarely if ever has the need for greater cooperation between the two countries been more urgent than it will be in 2004 and the years to come.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Washington, Soviet Union, Moscow
  • Author: Jeffrey Simon
  • Publication Date: 03-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: After the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faced a strategic challenge: how to shape the post-Communist reform process in Central and Eastern Europe in ways that would foster stability and allow for cooperation on common security problems. NATO created the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) in December 1991 to promote dialogue on common security concerns with these countries and the former Soviet Union. The NACC dialogue bridged the former East-West divide and illuminated opportunities for practical cooperation. The council also helped Central and East European politicians understand that defense requirements are best rooted in democratic politics and that national security encompassed civil emergency planning and a broader range of concerns, not just the military.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Europe, North Atlantic, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: T.X Hammes, Robert B. Oakley
  • Publication Date: 03-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: To appreciate Afghanistan's predicament, it is essential to understand that all Afghan politics are tribal. Thus, while Afghans share a genuine national identity, their immediate concern in any political process is to advance or preserve the welfare of their ethnic or extended family group. Further, since the Russians and British artificially imposed the country's international borders, the tribes are not wholly contained within Afghanistan. They straddle the borders with surrounding nations. Thus, tribal politics are also international politics.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Russia, Middle East
  • Author: Eugene B. Rumer
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The Central Asian political landscape yields few signs of an impending storm in the near term. The absence of threats to the status quo, however, does not mean that it is acceptable or that it represents a stable political equilibrium in the region. Leadership succession in Central Asia bears watching for several reasons: as a precedent-setting process, it will provide the key missing element for the emerging political structures of the Central Asian states the tenure of the next generation will either make up for the shortcomings of its predecessors or aggravate them in the event of the latter, the stage will be set in Central Asia for more radical changes that could reverberate far beyond remote regional boundaries.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Howard M. Krawitz
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: China's accelerated push to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) raises two important questions: What impact will such change have upon the PLA image, status, and role in Chinese society? And how will Chinese military modernization affect the strategic interests and security concerns of the United States and China's neighbors in the region? Making the PLA into a more professional, technologically proficient force would certainly strengthen its capability to perform national defense, regional security, and other externally oriented missions more effectively. But modernization could also significantly change internal PLA demographics, resulting in a drastic alteration of the social contract that has traditionally existed between China's military and civilian society.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: Leo L Michel
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: It should come as no surprise that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials are fond of citing Mark Twain's retort to doomsayers that reports of his death were greatly exaggerated. Having survived many rough tests since its birth, the 54-year-old alliance is still working to recover from a bruising disagreement among its members over the decision by some to oust Saddam Hussein's regime. Its services, however, are still very much in demand: About 37,000 NATO-led military personnel remain on crisis management duty in the Balkans. NATO recently launched its first out-of- Europe operation, taking command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. In July 2003, the Senate voted unanimously to encourage the Bush administration to seek help from NATO in Iraq. Several prominent Members of Congress and nongovernmental experts have called for a NATO peacekeeping mission between Israelis and Palestinians.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Europe, North Atlantic, Israel, Balkans
  • Author: Howard M. Krawitz
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Clearly, Washington and Beijing do not see eye to eye on North Korea. From the U.S. perspective, North Korea is a rogue state (one that is still technically a U.S. enemy, to boot), with an announced intent to develop further its nuclear capability and acquire nuclear weapons—in spite of formal agreements in which Pyongyang promised not to engage in such pursuits. Pyongyang's rhetoric and behavior highlight its willingness to use nuclear blackmail as a tool for achieving its aims. It has heightened tensions by implying that it might export nuclear weapons or fissile material if its needs are not met. Summed up, North Korea poses a tangible, real-time threat to U.S. allies in East Asia and to U.S. national security interests.
  • Topic: Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: China, Washington, Israel, North Korea
  • Author: M. Elaine Bunn
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: What role should preemptive action play in U.S. national strategy? In the wake of the first public statements by President George W. Bush in June 2002, and in the buildup to military action against Iraq, the issue quickly became a lightning rod for controversy. While some commentators hailed preemption as a valuable concept whose time had come, others condemned it as a dangerous precedent that could damage American interests, strain our relations overseas, and make the United States a feared unilateralist in the international system. All the hue and cry has done little to clarify the issues and choices that policymakers face in weighing the utility and limits of the concept.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America
  • Author: Teresita C. Schaffer
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The combined talents of the people of India and Pakistan, with the fitful help of a long list of others, have been trying for over 50 years to resolve the Kashmir issue. This essay offers no ready-made answers but rather suggestions on where to begin to look for them. Experience with other recent peace processes teaches valuable lessons about how would-be peacemakers need to approach their task and the ways in which third parties can help.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, India
  • Author: Joseph McMillan
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The reconstruction and reform of the Iraqi armed forces will inevitably take place in the context of both Iraq's present and past. Saddam Hussein and his predecessors, going back to the creation of the state, have left Iraq a legacy of endemic domestic political violence, dysfunctional civil-military relations, and, in recent decades, an ideology of unremitting hostility to virtually every one of Iraq's neighbors.
  • Topic: Security, Government
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Kim Dong Shin
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (September 2002) provides an important framework from which to examine the current crisis on the Korean Peninsula and other challenges in Northeast Asia. With its focus on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), this strategy is concerned with North Korea as much as, if not more than, any other state. In particular, North Korea poses a unique set of challenges in regard to WMD. North Korea stands in sharp contrast to the Republic of Korea (ROK) on issues such as human rights, democracy, and market economies. The National Security Strategy suggests that the United States should revitalize its alliance with South Korea, while encouraging North Korea to transform its political and economic system. Yet South Korea and the United States are currently having some difficulties in developing a consensus on how to approach Pyongyang, and appear to have no clear plan to operationalize the strategy to deal with North Korea.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Richard Kugler
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Some analysts want to downplay dissuasion or set it aside entirely because of its ambiguity. But ignoring this emerging idea would be short sighted. Despite its haziness, the term goes to the heart of new-era geopolitics in several key regions, including Asia. If the United States can learn how to dissuade skillfully, its strategic effectiveness in troubled regions will improve significantly. When the idea of deterrence first appeared 50 years ago, it too was ambiguous. During the Cold War, however, it acquired a role of central importance once it was equipped with a full-fledged strategic theory. The same may hold true for dissuasion in the early 21st century—but only if it too is equipped with the full set of analyses and calculations needed to bring it to life.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Eugene Rumer
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The terrorist attacks of September 11 swept away much of the uncertainty about Central Asia's importance to the international system and its relationship with the major powers, especially the United States. Indeed, the five states of the region—ajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan—have become among the most important frontline states in America's war on terrorism. But the war did not alter many basic long-term trends in the region that will complicate U.S. activities as well as color Central Asian perceptions of the United States. Beyond the immediate demands of the war on terrorism, many fundamental questions remain unanswered: How important is Central Asia to the United States? What is the nature of U.S. interest in the region? What role should the United States play in Central Asia: security manager, hegemon, limited partner? Defining the right role for the United States in Central Asia is no easy task. The region is geographically remote, unknown to much of the American public, and not easily accessible. It has few evident connections to the United States. U.S. interests in Central Asia— beyond the most basic ones such as peace, stability, and alleviation of human suffering, as well as those associated with terrorism—are not easy to identify in ways that the American people and their leaders would readily embrace. Moreover, the early record of U.S. engagement in Central Asia immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union and through the 1990s was not a positive one, resulting in mutual disappointments in Washington and the Central Asian capitals. That record offers important lessons that will be considered below.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Washington, Central Asia
  • Author: John A. Cope
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Colombia's new president, Alvaro Uribe, is confronting a protracted internal war and moving to assert national political authority. Hopes are being pinned on Uribe, the new “law and order” president who took office on August 7, 2002, with an overwhelming mandate to end violence, narcotics, and official corruption.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Colombia, Latin America
  • Author: Howard M. Krawitz
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In late 2001, China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), a dramatic step that marks not only the end of a 15-year odyssey for Beijing but also the beginning of a new phase in the country's internal development and its relations with the outside world. It may sound odd to suggest that joining the WTO—an organization focused on rules of conduct for trade and commerce—will influence not only China's economy but also its political, military, and social development, as well as its interaction with the United States. Yet China's efforts to play by WTO rules could affect its internal development far more extensively than has been the case with many new member nations.
  • Topic: Security, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Eugene B. Rumer, Richard D. Sokolsky
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In 2001, President Vladimir Putin made a strategic choice for Russia's integration with the West. Indicators of this decision include Putin's quest for better relations with the United States and Europe, his stated commitment to Russian membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), his pursuit of a new relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and his almost casual dismissal of the potential major irritants in the relationship with the United States and its allies—U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, the likelihood of Baltic membership in NATO, sizeable U.S. military deployments to Central Asia, and a growing U.S. military presence in Georgia. Putin has unequivocally crossed these once-insurmountable red lines despite opposition from his closest advisers and the unease of the Russian public over the American presence in Russia's backyard.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Georgia
  • Author: Kimberley L. Thachuk
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: To operate effectively, transnational terrorists and criminals need ready access to money and the ability to maneuver it quickly and secretly across borders. On a large scale, such money maneuvers can ripple across entire regions, embroiling global markets and threatening vital American economic interests as well as destabilizing other countries politically. The ability to move vast quantities of wealth rapidly and anonymously across the globe—sometimes combining modern-day wire transfers, faxes, and Internet connections with centuriesold practices, such as the hawala, of personal connections and a handshake—gives terrorist and criminal networks a strategic advantage over many states. Yet it also might be their vulnerability.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: James J. Przystup
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Despite the current stagnation in South-North dialogue, relations between the Koreas have been subject to sudden shifts. In the warm afterglow of the historic June 2000 South-North Summit in Pyongyang, South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's engagement policy appeared to have created a self-sustaining dynamic. Policymakers in Washington and Seoul scrambled to manage the potential diplomatic and security consequences of a rapid breakthrough in bilateral relations driven by presidential summitry.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security
  • Political Geography: Israel, Korean Peninsula, Pyongyang
  • Author: Michael Brenner
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The idea of a European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI) has been a feature of the transatlantic security dialogue for a decade. The 1991 Maastricht Treaty foresaw an eventual incorporation of the Western European Union (WEU) as the defense arm of the European Union (EU). Endowing the Union with military capability was a logical extension of the commitment to a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) as stipulated in the treaty. Both ideas, promoted by France and Germany, expressed the general desire of member states to play a more active role in securing the peace and stability of postcommunist Europe. Extending the principle of integration into the foreign policy field served two purposes. It was a means to tighten community bonds in the new, unsettled strategic environment by providing reassurance against the renationalization of defense policies. At the same time, it laid the basis for a collective effort to influence continental affairs consonant with the European venture in an orderly transition to democracy and market economies. The perceived need to add a security building block to the project of "constructing Europe" also reflected apprehension about a possible retreat of the United States from a Europe now free of the Soviet military threat. That possibility added further reason for West Europeans to make contingency plans for an uncertain future.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, France, Soviet Union, Germany
  • Author: Stephen J. Flanagan
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: As the Bush administration settles into office, the United States confronts an international environment marked by growing volatility and rapid change. What security challenges will the new administration face, and what strategies are available for managing these challenges? To answer these questions, leading policy specialists in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University recently prepared a series of assessments for the Department of Defense. These perspectives are presented in this occasional paper. Together with the Institute's previously published Report of the National Defense University Quadrennial Defense Review 2001 Working Group, these assessments offer a broad menu of security policy choices.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 01-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held its annual Pacific symposium on “Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China” at the National Defense University in Washington on March 7 and 8, 2000. This event brought together representatives of the policy community and academe from Australia, the People's Republic of China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the United States. It focused on how perceptions of China influence defense and foreign policies in key nations of the Asia- Pacific region, how the likely course of developments in China might affect the future policies of countries in the region, and how such changes might impact on their security relations with the United States.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, India, Korea, Singapore, Thailand
  • Author: M. Elaine Bunn, Richard D. Sokolsky, David E. Mosher
  • Publication Date: 07-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The strategic environment facing the United States has changed radically in the past decade. The United States needs to reexamine traditional ways of planning for the use of military force in conflicts that threaten vital interests and that could escalate to the highest levels of violence. Several characteristics define the new environment: Changed relationships between the major powers. The bipolar world of the Cold War has yielded to U.S. preeminence in virtually every facet of power, while Russia has become a second-tier power. China now has the seventh largest economy in the world and is modernizing both its conventional and nuclear forces—though it is unlikely to replace the former Soviet Union as the second pole in a reconfigured bipolar world. The rise of regional powers, such as Iraq and Iran. These aspiring regional hegemons are unhappy with a status quo that is preserved by American military power. The end of bipolarity has brought this antagonism to the fore. During the Cold War, regional conflicts played out within the context of the broader ideological and strategic conflict between the two superpowers, which also tamped down pressures for escalation and proliferation for fear that conflict would spiral out of control. That all ended with the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet empire made it impossible for Russia to continue supporting its allies abroad, who were forced to become responsible for their own security. The possibility that smaller rogue states might try to keep the United States out of a regional conflict. By credibly threatening that the fight could escalate and even involve homeland attacks on the United States or its partners, a regional pariah might hope to prevent the United States from committing forces to the conflict or hinder it from building coalitions with European and regional allies. Failing that, a regional adversary could seek to delay and disrupt U.S. deployments to the theater and hamper operations. Finally, the leadership of a rogue state may be able to preserve its regime even in defeat if it could strike the American homeland or American allies. In short, regional powers are developing the capability to conduct strategic warfare against the United States. The importance these countries place on asymmetric warfare probably has been encouraged by the American distaste for wartime casualties and worries about self-deterrence.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China
  • Author: John C. Holzman
  • Publication Date: 07-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The Bush administration promotes broader security relations with India as a priority yet maintains wide-ranging sanctions against this giant of the subcontinent to punish it for its 1998 nuclear tests. The administration inherited policies that restrict high technology and military exports to India, mandate that the United States vote against some development loans to India from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, and limit cooperation with the Indian military establishment. The administration is in the process of lifting restrictions on high-level military contacts and is consulting with New Delhi on its plans for missile defense, a concept that India has applauded.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Central Asia, India, New Delhi
  • Author: Anthony C. Zinni
  • Publication Date: 07-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, more than any other event, marked the collapse of the Soviet Union. I remember crossing through a vacant Checkpoint Charlie into East Berlin. No one on either side knew quite what we could or could not do, since it all happened so fast. The confusion and stark contrast between East and West Berlin made it hard to believe that we had once feared this collapsed Warsaw Pact or seen it as a serious global competitor. The West always contended that communism was a fundamentally flawed system that would eventually fail. Despite that belief, we were caught by surprise by the sudden and total end of the Soviet empire and the system that governed half the world. At the time, our President proudly drew what appeared to be the logical conclusion from these events: that there was to be a new world order. Others talked of reaping a peace dividend, since defense spending surely could be reduced.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Berlin
  • Author: Hans Binnendijk, Richard L. Kugler
  • Publication Date: 04-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: One of the toughest challenges facing the Department of Defense (DOD) is translating strategic policy into concrete guidelines for preparing U.S. military forces. A defense planning standard is a set of judgments and directives for performing this key function. Normally this standard has three associated roles: to determine the size of forces and their main missions; to establish program and budgetary priorities; and to inform the Congress and the public of the rationale behind the defense strategy and force posture. For example, the Kennedy administration standard was a two and one-half war strategy, and the Nixon administration had a one and one-half war strategy. To guide its planning, the Carter administration used the standard of multitheater war with the Soviet Union in Europe and the Persian Gulf. The Reagan administration applied an Illustrative Planning Scenario that contemplated global war with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: M. Elaine Bunn, Richard D. Sokolsky
  • Publication Date: 02-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Before the next administration decides on a strategic force posture, national missile defense (NMD) architecture, and arms control objectives for both offensive and defensive forces, it needs to grapple with questions of strategy and doctrine. Any consideration of alternative defense strategies and their implications for nuclear forces and missile defenses should start with a basic set of questions: For what purposes will we need nuclear weapons and missile defenses in the future and under what conditions would these missions be carried out? What countries will pose strategic threats to vital U.S. national interests over the next 10–20 years? What hostile actions are we trying to deter, and what are the proper character, size, and mix of nuclear weapons and defenses in deterring these threats?
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States