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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Resolution Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution German Institute of Global and Area Studies

1. Mind the Gap: An Annotated Overview of Datasets in the Study of Institutions and Conflict in Divided Societies

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Nadine Ansorg, Felix Haass, and Julia Strasheim
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper engages in a systematic overview of the existing datasets on institutions, conflict and peace, as well as divisions and diversity. This overview indicates that an enormous amount of data is unevenly distributed across different issue areas. There is a lack of data capturing specific sets of political institutions (e.g., centripetalism), dynamic changes in a country's relational demographics across identity groups, the ethnicization of political institutions (especially in the security sector), and security sector reform. Many datasets suffer from missing data and an alarming dearth of transparency. Our paper concludes with suggestions for yet unexplored research questions and avenues for further data collection.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Demographics, and Peace Studies

2. The Eritrean Diaspora: Savior or Gravedigger of the Regime? Diaspora Responses to the Imposition of UN Sanctions

Author:
Nicole Hirt
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the impact of UN‐imposed sanctions on the stability of the Eritrean regime, using diaspora behavior as an explanatory variable of crucial importance. It explores the transnational nature of Eritrean society, which is characterized by long‐distance nationalism, and examines the history and structure of the Eritrean diaspora as well as its transformation since the political crisis of 2001. The paper argues that the government and its supporters among the diaspora, as well as regime opponents, have all instrumentalized the sanctions for their own specific purposes. While the former use the sanctions to create a “rally around the flag” effect and for fundraising purposes, the latter campaign against the 2 percent diaspora tax levied by the government because it may be used for illicit purposes in breach of the sanctions regime. However, due to the opposition\'s disunity and failure to organize joint campaigns, its efforts have so far failed to decisively contribute to the demise of Eritrea\'s crumbling rebel regime. Meanwhile financial flows to both the government\'s coffers and to private individuals continue to play a stabilizing role. Nevertheless, unsuccessful domestic policies, the mass exodus resulting from the militarization of the entire society and an isolationist foreign policy are all contributing to the growing weakness of the regime, and with it the State of Eritrea.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diaspora, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Eritrea

3. Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010, September 2012

Author:
Matthias Basedau and Carlo Koos
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We employ a two‐tier spatiotemporal analysis to investigate whether uranium operations cause armed conflict in Africa. The macrolevel analysis suggests that – compared to the baseline conflict risk – uranium ventures increase the risk of intrastate conflict by 10 percent. However, we find ethnic exclusion to be a much better predictor of armed conflict than uranium. The microlevel analysis reveals that uranium‐spurred conflicts are spatiotemporally feasible in four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Namibia, Niger and South Africa. We find strong evidence in the case of Niger, and partial evidence in the case of the DRC. Namibia and South Africa do not yield substantial evidence of uranium‐ induced conflicts. We conclude that uranium may theoretically be a conflictinducing resource, but to the present day empirical evidence has been sparse as most countries are still in the exploration phase. Considering that the coming years will see 25 African countries transition from uranium explorers into producers, we strongly suggest that our analysis be revisited in the coming years.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict

Author:
Alexander De Juan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The rationale is straightforward and persuasive: intrastate conflicts are by definition subnational phenomena. If we want to understand them fully, it may be wise to refocus our attention from the country level to the subnational level. Where violence is located might inform us as to why it erupts and how it is linked to various political, economic or social factors. The number of statistical geospatial analyses undertaken at the subnational level has been increasing constantly in recent years. Even though such studies have contributed greatly to peace and conflict research, they have come with their own challenges. Most importantly, they often do not adequately consider the theoretical and conceptual implications of switching from conventional cross‐country to subnational analysis; this has led to dubious theoretical arguments and conclusions. Moreover, operationalization and measurement issues often limit these analyses' explanatory power. The paper reviews several geospatial analyses of violent conflict, points out the limitations of the previous research and proposes some potential avenues for improvement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Political Violence, Economics, and War

5. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case

Author:
Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

6. Postwar Youth Violence: A Mirror of the Relationship between Youth and Adult Society

Author:
Sabine Kurtenbach
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Postwar societies are high-risk contexts for youth violence. Nevertheless, not all postwar societies are equally violent. This article explores how these variations can be explained by focusing on the interaction between youths and adult society in a comparison of Guatemala and Cambodia. Starting from the concept of socialization and the possibilities of performing status passages to adulthood, it analyzes not only the different risk factors but also the agency of young people and society in trying to cope with and overcome obstacles on the pathway to adulthood. Different patterns of war termination and of reconstruction after war's end are identified as major intervening variables that explain the variations in youth violence in as well as across the case studies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, War, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Guatemala

7. Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Tim Wegenast, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Theoretically, the “mobilization hypothesis” establishes a link between religion and conflict by arguing that religious structures such as overlapping ethnic and religious identities are prone to mobilization; once politicized, escalation to violent conflict becomes likelier. Yet, despite the religious diversity in sub-Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African armed conflicts, this assumption has not yet been backed by systematic empirical research on the religion–conflict nexus in the region. The following questions thus remain: Do religious factors significantly impact the onset of (religious) armed conflict? If so, do they follow the logic of the mobilization hypothesis and, if yes, in which way? To answer these questions, this paper draws on a unique data inventory of all sub-Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008, particularly including data on mobilization-prone religious structures (e.g. demographic changes, parallel ethno-religious identities) as well as religious factors indicating actual politicization of religion (e.g. inter-religious tensions, religious discrimination, incitement by religious leaders). Based on logit regressions, results suggest that religion indeed plays a significant role in African armed conflicts. The findings are compatible with the mobilization hypothesis: Overlaps of religious and ethnic identities and religious dominance are conflict-prone; religious polarization is conflict-prone only if combined with religious discrimination and religious tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion

8. Managing Ethnic Conflict: The Menu of Institutional Engineering

Author:
Matthias Basedau
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The debate on institutional engineering offers options to manage ethnic and other conflicts. This contribution systematically assesses the logic of these institutional designs and the empirical evidence on their functioning. Generally, institutions can work on ethnic conflict by either accommodating (“consociationalists”) or denying (“integrationists”) ethnicity in politics. Looking at individual and combined institutions (e.g. state structure, electoral system, forms of government), the literature review finds that most designs are theoretically ambivalent and that empirical evidence on their effectiveness is mostly inconclusive. The following questions remain open: a) Is politicized ethnicity really a conflict risk? b) What impact does the whole “menu” (not just single institutions) have? and c) How are effects conditioned by the exact nature of conflict risks?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance

9. Revisiting the Resource–Conflict Link: A Systematic Comparative Test of Causal Mechanisms in Four Major Oil-Exporting Countries

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz, Matthias Basedau, and Annegret Mähler
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Causal mechanisms and related contextual variables are crucial to the study of the resource–conflict link, but little systematic research has been done on their exact functioning. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap by comparing four major oil exporters (Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela) with differing levels of internal violence. To capture the causal complexity of the resource–conflict link we created a questionnaire with some 150 variables that distinguish between resource-specific (RS) and non-resource specific (NRS) conditions. The causal mechanisms are measured by assigning pertinent RS and NRS indicators to them. Our results suggest that the role of resources may be less prominent than is widely assumed. Only three resource-related causal mechanisms provide limited explanatory value (motive at subnational level, indirect economic, and institutional mechanism) by distinguishing Venezuela—the most peaceful case—from all the others. Only a mixed mechanism that combines 13 RS and NRS (economic and geographic characteristics, identity, intergroup relations, as well as political and institutional variables, including elite behavior) conditions can explain the differences between the countries with regard to the dependent variable comprehensively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria

10. Fighting for a Kingdom of God? The Role of Religion in the Ivorian Crisis

Author:
Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of religion with regard to the violence experienced during the past 20 years in Côte d'Ivoire. It seeks to explain the differences in the level of violence over time by focusing on religion as an identity marker and as a social force that is mobilizable by religious and political actors. Religious identities were part of the growing in-/ out-group mechanism utilized in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1990s, while the political elites tried to politicize religion. In reaction to the violence and politicization, the religious elites founded an interreligious organization in the 1990s, and were successful in preventing a religious war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Africa