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2. US foreign policy tools in the era of disinformation: Deficiencies prevent effective response to malign information operations
- Author:
- Deborah A. McCarthy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia, China, Iran and ISIS use information operations to undermine the national security objectives of the United States and its allies. However, the US’s international response has been weak. Internal constraints have limited more effective counter-measures. In particular, the lack of a coordinated White House-level strategy, dispersed authorities and little cooperation with private social media companies can be identified as causal factors. Additional steps by the Trump Administration to counter foreign disinformation will aim to protect the 2020 presidential elections rather than to push back on efforts to undermine US leadership abroad.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, ISIS, Social Media, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North America
3. Russia-India relations: Long-term obstacles remain despite sectoral achievements
- Author:
- Marcin Kaczmarski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite concrete achievements in energy and military-technical cooperation, long-term trends, such as Russia’s growing dependence on China, India’s tilt towards the US, and tense Sino-Indian relations are not conducive to closer strategic cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, India, and Asia
4. Crimea 2.0: Will Russia seek reunification with Belarus?
- Author:
- Arkady Moshes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- While speculation about whether Russia may repeat the Crimean scenario in Belarus should not be totally dismissed, exaggerated alarmism would not be appropriate either. Rather, Moscow’s policy is aimed at making sure that Belarus and its leadership remain critically dependent on Russia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Empire, and Annexation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Belarus, and Crimea
5. The Sino-Russian and US-Russian relationships: Current developments and future trends
- Author:
- Marcin Kaczmarski, Mark Katz, and Teija Tiilikainen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The great-power system has been in constant change since the end of the Cold War. The US became the hegemonic power, and under its shelter, the European Union was able to transform into a European-wide political body. Soon, a group of leading regional powers started to question the universalist aspirations of the Western-led international order. Two members of this club in particular were not satisfied with the role of a regional hegemon and had more global ambitions. China has already become the largest trading nation globally, and Chinese foreign policy has assumed an assertive tone. China has both the potential to challenge US hegemony, as well as the political will to use it. Russia’s project to achieve a global great-power status, on the other hand, is inspired by its historical identity and its alleged humiliation by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia longs for recognition of its great-power status in particular from the US. This report focuses on relations between China and Russia on the one hand and the US and Russia on the other. It analyses the current developments and future trends in these relationships, as well as their implications for the EU.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America
6. Zugzwang in slow motion? The implications of Russia’s system-level crisis
- Author:
- Veera Laine, Toivo Martikainen, Katri Pynnöniemi, and Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The upsurge in Russia’s foreign political and military activity should be understood and analysed as a reaction to several internal and external setbacks that the Russian system has suffered in recent years. As a response to these multiple challenges, the Russian leadership has switched on a crisis mode that legitimises exceptional measures in both foreign and domestic policy. Domestically, this mode has meant ‘internal mobilisation’: the creation of enemy images, assertive patriotism, growing isolationism, tighter control and more aggressive use of information resources. In the name of national unity, only the dominant version of patriotism is accepted while others are easily branded as ‘fifth column’ or ‘foreign agents’. While the internal mobilisation and portrayal of Russia as a ‘besieged fortress’ seem to have improved the system’s resilience in the short term, the underlying systemic problems remain unresolved. Adding to the problem is the nature of the Russian system: instead of formal political institutions, it relies on unofficial networks of power that sustain and support the system but simultaneously limit its powers and restrict its capability to reform. As a result, the system is unable to solve the long-term structural problems it is facing. Not only is the Russian system in crisis, but more precisely, it uses and instrumentalises the crisis mode in order to legitimise and secure its power. As the system is currently unable to provide Russians with increasing standards of living, protecting them from an outside threat has become the system’s main source of legitimacy. Uncertainty and a crisis atmosphere are therefore not a phase Russia is going through but rather a more permanent feature that the regime needs in order to maintain its popularity and power. The political passiveness combined with the popular resonance of the isolationist discourse and the effective elimination of any viable alternatives to the regime indicate that the leadership will be able to hold on to its power for the time being. However, the systemic problems will remain unresolved and will gradually worsen. This dilemma is what this paper has dubbed ‘zugzwang in slow motion’.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Democracy, Leadership, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
7. A normative EU policy towards China: Mission impossible?
- Author:
- Mikael Mattlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A vigorous debate is raging on the EU's normative roles in the global context. The EU actively promotes its political values outside of the Union, especially with regard to prospective accession countries. Yet, a normative foreign policy approach encounters considerable challenges when confronted with major powers, such as China and Russia that do not always share the political values promoted by the EU. Attempts at pursuing a normative policy towards these countries often come across as unserious or half-hearted. This paper discusses EU normative policy towards China, identifying loss of the moral high ground, conflicting interests of EU members and lack of leverage towards China as the three main factors hampering it. The paper argues that instead of a half-hearted offensive normative approach towards China, the EU may be better off with a more determined policy of defensive normativity. More broadly, the EU faces a stark choice between its desire to be a Normative Power and its wish to be a Great Power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Europe
8. Hegemonic Project or Survival Strategy? Language Rights in the Former Soviet Space
- Author:
- Kitty Lam
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Soviet Union's collapse brought to surface a complex ethno-political situation in the territory it formerly spanned. Changes in interstate boundaries separated various ethnic populations from their perceived homelands. This post-Soviet landscape has created policy dilemmas for the Russian government, as some 25 million Russians found themselves living outside the borders of the Russian Federation. How Russian leaders have dealt with issues pertaining to its 'compatriots' in the non-Russian Soviet successor states has become a subject of interest to Western observers. In particular, Western analysts have been observing the expression of 'ethnic diaspora' issues in Russian foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia
9. The Relevance of Norms and Values in the EU´s Russia Policy
- Author:
- Hiski Haukkala
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the European Union, the link between norms, values and foreign policy seems to be an obvious one. For example, the new constitutional treaty spells out the set of values on which the Union's external action is based on: democracy, the rule of law, the universality and indivisibility of human rights and fundamental freedoms, respect for human dignity, the principles of equality and solidarity, and respect for the principles of the United Nations Charter and international law. In the treaty, the development of relations with third parties is made conditional upon sharing and upholding them.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, International Political Economy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
10. Russia and Europe: A Finnish View
- Author:
- Henrikki Heikka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent months, several prominent Finnish politicians have criticized the Finnish government for lack of vision in its foreign policy. Liisa Jaakonsaari, Chairman of the Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee and a prominent social democrat), has argued that the government “lacks one thing, and with it, everything: a vision”. Member of the European Parliament Alexander Stubb (the Conservative party's vote puller in the last EP elections) has publicly called contemporary Finnish foreign policy as “pitiful tinkering” (säälittävää näpertelyä). Editorial writers have begun to recycle the old the term “driwftwood” (ajopuu), a term originally coined to describe Finland's flip-flopping during World War II, in their attempts to find an appropriate label for the present government's foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Finland, and Asia