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  • Author: Hans Lucht
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Without a stable Libya to strike migration deals with, EU is looking further south, to Niger, as a way of cutting off the trans-Saharan migration routes. However, the question is whether the EU is exchanging short-term gains for long-term stability?
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe, Niger
  • Author: Fabrizzio Tassinari, Sebastian Tetzlaff
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: From being a historical bridge-builder among different sensibilities in Europe, Germany has gradually assumed a more assertive posture on key issues from the refugee crisis to Brexit negotiations. As a result, the federal election in September will be consequential not just for Germany, but also for the rest of Europe.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde, Peter Albrecht, Rikke Haugegaard
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Despite efforts to increase the deployment of female soldiers, the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) remains dominated by men. A new DIIS policy brief discusses how to increase gender awareness in MINUSMA. In the MINUSMA force of 11,000 troops, only 1.8% of military personnel are women compared to the average of 3.8% for UN peacekeeping missions. The brief argues that a focus on the operational relevance of gender integration and on strengthening existing capacities in the mission will be small, yet realistic, steps forward. Furthermore, MINUSMA should use African nations with a solid focus on gender in their own armies as role models and mentors for all military staff across the mission. The policy brief is based on a collaborative research between DIIS and the Royal Danish Defence College, RDDC.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, International Affairs, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Mali
  • Author: Rasmus Alenius Boserup, Hans Lucht, Mohamed Eljarh
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Hampered by a combination of a historical absence of strong and centralized state institutions and a recent destruction of the institutional pillars underpinning the Gaddafi-regime, Libya’s transition government that took office on 17 December 2015, remains at a loss. Like previous transition governments, the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has failed to re-establish central authority. In a new DIIS brief, Senior Researchers Rasmus Alenius Boserup and Hans Lucht and Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Mohamed Eljarh, analyse the constraints for the current government. They propose a way forward based on an acknowledgement that power resides in the peripheries of Libya, not at the centre.
  • Topic: Political Power Sharing, Peacekeeping, Political and institutional effectiveness
  • Political Geography: Libya
  • Author: Luke Patey, Michal Meidan
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The size and sophistication of Chinese foreign investment is on the rise. In 2014, inbound investment to China was outpaced by outbound investment for the first time. Chinese foreign investment has surpassed the $100 billion mark for the past three years, making China the third largest overseas investor. At the same time, beyond oil and gas, which dominated headlines over the past decade, Chinese state-owned enterprises and private corporations are making multi-billion dollar investments in construction, telecommunications, nuclear, and high-tech across the globe. What political and security implications do these new investment have for host government in North America and Europe? What is the view point of Beijing towards the growing reach of its corporations overseas? A new policy brief by Michal Meidan, research associate at Chatham House and Asia Analyst at Energy Aspects, and DIIS senior researcher Luke Patey explores these questions.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Global Focus
  • Author: Vibeke Schou Tjalve
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Despite the general impression that the US president-elect Donald Trump has given us very little clue to predict his foreign policy doctrine, a guiding framework behind his scattered statements does exist. In this DIIS Policy Brief, Senior Researcher Vibeke Schou Tjalve takes a closer look at the surprisingly consistent philosophy of power and interest that Trump has aired during the past two decades. Trump is labelled a ‘nationalist’ and an ‘isolationist’. These are understandable labels, and yet: Trump is not your classical cultural-conservative nostalgic with deep veneration for old alliances or shared norms. His American nationalism does not linger on the memories of the New World European roots. Rather, it is founded on a deeply Darwinist conception of the world as a cutthroat competition, in which raw strength - not cultural characteristics – matters. As such, Trump will have no sentimentality for NATO or Europe, and he will view the world through largely value-neutral eyes. This leaves Europe with a defining set of questions, and to influence a Trump presidency, we should understand and appreciate this not-so-simple nationalism, Tjalve writes.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Power Sharing
  • Political Geography: America, Europe
  • Author: Anne Mette Kjær
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Ugandan economy resembles many other economies in sub-Saharan Africa in that it has a large subsistence sector, relies on a few primary commodities for export and depends on aid to finance its public services. Oil and minerals have so far not been important to the economy. However, this might change as an estimated 3.5 billion barrel oil reservoir has been discovered in Uganda's Western and Northwestern Albertine Graben. Minerals have also been found and are being sold off as concessions. If oil revenues start to be mobilized as currently planned (2016-17), significant changes in not only government finance but also in the governments' relationships with donors and in state–society relations are likely to occur. The consequences for local communities and the environment are also likely to be significant.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Oil, Natural Resources, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Publication Date: 01-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Social accountability as a tool for development planning is gaining foothold in international donor circles. It is concerned with the responsibility and responsiveness of state authorities, as well as the ability of citizens to make claims and hold those who exercise power to account for their actions.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Non-Governmental Organization, Foreign Aid, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Trine Flockhart
  • Publication Date: 01-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The introductory chapter outlines the context within which NATO's new partnership policy has been formulated, especially the changing security and political context for partnerships in the 21st century and the anticipated effects of changing global power constellations and the prospects for change in the so- called liberal world order. The chapter introduces a conceptualization of 'the international' understood as consisting of three components (international structure, primary and secondary institutions) which are each likely to change in different ways over the coming years. The chapter briefly outlines the development of NATO's engagement with a wide variety of partners since the initial partnership structure was set up in 1991 and categorizes the different forms of partnership initiatives by dividing NATO's partnership initiatives into four different 'streams', which, although they progress in parallel, also coexist and intermingle.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Cooperation, Governance
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan
  • Author: Michael W. Hansen
  • Publication Date: 02-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: If African developing countries are to benefit fully from the current boom in foreign direct investment (FDI) in extractives (i.e. mining and oil/gas), it is essential that the foreign investors foster linkages to the local economy. Traditionally, extractive FDI in Africa has been seen as the enclave economy par excellence, moving in with fully integrated value chains, extracting resources and exporting them as commodities having virtually no linkages to the local economy. However, new opportunities for promoting linkages are offered by changing business strategies of local African enterprises as well as foreign multinational corporations (MNCs). MNCs in extractives are increasingly seeking local linkages as part of their efficiency, risk, and asset-seeking strategies, and linkage programmes are becoming integral elements in many MNCs' corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. At the same time, local African enterprises are eager to, and increasingly capable of, linking up to the foreign investors in order to expand their activities and acquire technology, skills and market access. The changing strategies of MNCs and the improving capabilities of African enterprises offer new opportunities for governments and donors to mobilize extractive FDI for development goals. This paper seeks to take stock of what we know about the state of and driving forces of linkage formation in South Sahel Africa extractives based on a review of the extant literature. The paper argues that while MNCs and local enterprises by themselves will indeed produce linkages, the scope, depth and development impacts of linkages eventually depend on government intervention. Resource-rich African countries' governments are aware of this and linkage promotion is increasingly becoming a key element in their industrialization strategies. A main point of the paper is that the choice between different linkage policies and approaches should be informed by a firm understanding of the workings of the private sector as well as the political and institutional capacity of host governments to adopt and implement linkage policies and approaches.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Anne Sofie Westh Olsen
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Mobility is a resource and a privilege that is unevenly distributed between countries, and within countries. People from developing countries depend on visas and residence permits to a larger extent than citizens of the developed world. Most migration policy research determines the inequality of mobility mainly as a consequence of restrictive immigration policies in destination countries. The focus of this paper is instead on the limited access order that has led to unequal access to migration between people from an African sending country, which has been largely overlooked. This paper shows the historical emergence of a migration divide between intercontinental and intra-African migrants. Through a historical analysis, the paper under-lines how academic migration to France became a means to social mobility in Burkina Faso after independence, while today there is a breakdown of the social elevator via migration since preferential access to migration is likely to enhance the divide between rich and poor.
  • Topic: Economics, Migration, Poverty, Social Stratification, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa, France
  • Author: Lars Buur
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores linkage creation in Mozambique related to mega-projects in natural resource extraction and development from a political economy perspective. It explores through a focus on linkage development related to extractive industries in Mozambique the 'best practice' attempts between commodity producers and local content providers. The paper argues that a relatively elaborate state organizational and institutional setup based on policies, strategies and units with funding tools has emerged over time in order to begin to reap the benefits of large-scale investments in the extractive sectors. However, despite the formal acknowledgement, very little has been achieved with regard to forward and backward linkages, state institutions are often despite the official government rhetoric of importance simply bypassed not only by foreign investors, but also by the political leadership.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Khalid Aziz
  • Publication Date: 04-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: There are doubts whether the exit of a majority of foreign forces from Afghanistan will help the return of peace to that country. Unlike in the case of the SU withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, conditions today are more dangerous, and it will be a miracle if the withdrawal is peaceful. The main reason for this is the absence of any reconciliation with the Taliban. This report identifies a minimum set of policies and measures that need to be implemented before successful multiple transitions in Afghanistan can occur. However, the overall picture is not positive, and it is not certain that peace will prevail after foreign troops leave Afghanistan.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Central Asia
  • Author: Christine Nissen
  • Publication Date: 05-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The next European Parliament elections that take place from 22 to 25 May 2014 will not only shape politics in the European Parliament, but also influence the direction of the EU and Europe for the years to come. With the increased powers that the European Parliament gained after the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, the new political majority following the elections has the competences to change or block almost all EU policies as the main legislator in the EU in cooperation with the Council of Ministers. Besides its significantly expanded competences in legislation, the next European Parliament will also for the first time formally 'elect' the next President of the European Commission.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Governance, Law
  • Political Geography: Europe, Lisbon
  • Author: Jeppe Teglskov Jacobsen
  • Publication Date: 05-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Cyberwar is everywhere - in the media, in the military, among politicians and in academia. It is the new weapon of mass discussion. But there is no such thing as cyberwar. This observation, however, does not render cyberattacks unimportant. The article revisits the debate on Carl von Clausewitz's On War (1832), and examines the utility of cyberattacks as a tool in future war. In doing so, the article not only targets the misunderstandings and exaggerations prevalent in the literature, but demonstrates that Clausewitz's On War, albeit being two centuries old, is a valuable analytical lens in making sense of the relationship between cyber attacks and war. Drawing on the Clauzewitzian trinity, the article finds that cyber attacks can be useful tools in warfare, particularly in the initial stages of war. They are easily deployable and have already proven capable of causing physical damage. However, the article argues that cyber attacks remain inferior to conventional military weaponry, ultimately rendering cyberwar — understood as a war fought primarily through cyberspace — unlikely.
  • Topic: International Law, Science and Technology, International Security
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Rachel Spichiger, Edna Kabala
  • Publication Date: 04-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Land, and in particular agricultural land, is central to livelhoods in rural Zambia. Zambia is characterised by a dual legal system of customary and statutory law and by dual land tenure, with state land and customary land. A first wave of socialist-oriented reforms took place after independence in 1964, which abolished previously existing freehold land in favour of leasehold. Subsequent changes in government policies under the influence of structural adjustment programmes and a new government in 1991 paved the way for a market-driven land reform. The 1995 Lands Act introduced the privatization of land in Zambia and provided for the conversion of customary into state land, with the hope of attracting investors. However, the Act has been unevenly implemented, at least in rural areas, in part due to problems plaguing the land administration institutions and their work, in part due to opposition to the main tenets of the Act from chiefs, the population and civil society. Civil society, with donor support, calls for more attention towards women's precarious situations with regard to access to and ownership of land under customary tenure, but it still expresses a desire for customary tenure to remain. However, civil society also recognizes that customary practices are often also discriminatory towards women who depend on male relatives for access to land.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Gender Issues, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Rachel Spichiger, Paul Stacey
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Ghana has been implementing a land administration reform since 1999. The Land Administration Project (LAP), an ambitious programme supported by donors, aims to strenghten land administration institutions and increase land holders' security of tenure on both state and customary land. This working paper reviews the literature on this land reform process, with a focus on issues related to gender. At first absent from the 1999 Land Policy, gender concerns were later incorporated into the project and a gender strategy was developed in 2009, with the goal to mainstream gender in land-related agencies and activities. Although donors have contributed to the gender strategy, the inclusion of gender equality has not been at the forefront of their priorities.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Gender Issues, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Maybritt Jill Alpes
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Migration brokers are important participants in the increasingly commercialized policing of borders. Focusing on connections between migration brokers and state authorities, a new DIIS Working Paper by Maybritt Jill Alpes asks how migration brokers relate to the realm of the law, as well as how the law relates to migration brokerage. By examining illegality only when it becomes visible to aspiring migrants and brokers in the context of departure, the paper illuminates how state regulation is intimately intertwined with the emergence of migration brokerage. The argument of the paper provides a counter-point to studies of migration and illegality that often adopt an implicitly statist perspective by categorising brokers as either legal or illegal, as well as by framing brokers as agents that work 'against' the state. The paper draws on case material from Anglophone Cameroon, in the work of two NGOs that engage in so-called 'travel consultations'. It contributes to on-going discussions within the 'Migration Industry and Markets for Migration Control Network'.
  • Topic: Crime, Migration, Non-Governmental Organization, Immigration, Law Enforcement, Law
  • Political Geography: Cameroon
  • Author: Helle Malmvig
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Middle East regional security order is under rapid transformation. The Arab Uprisings and the Syrian War are changing not only the relationship between state and societies, but also some of the region's core norms and historical divisions. This report analyses key changes in regional security order the Middle East in the period after 2010. It identifies five key issues where regional order is changing: State-society relations Relations with the West and foreign policy posturing The impact of the Iran-Syria –Hezbollah Axis (the Resistance Front) and radical-moderate divide The Sunni-Shia rift and the rise of identity politics The Saudi-Qatar rivaling, and the role of the Muslim Brotherhood.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, Insurgency
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia, Syria, Qatar
  • Author: Christel Vincentz Rasmussen
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The EU is currently working at defining a comprehensive approach linking development and other instruments in external action. The Lisbon Treaty has contributed to a reorganisation of the institutions in Brussels, affecting crisis management structures and the organisation of external relations. Comprehensive approaches are not new in the EU system, in particular an integrated approach for conflict prevention and a concept for civil–military coordination were developed in the 2000s. However, a forthcoming communication on a comprehensive approach in external action constitutes an occasion to clarify and operationalise the approach in a new, post-Lisbon, institutional setting as well as consolidating the formal EU commitment to working comprehensively.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Europe, Brussels
  • Author: Maria Nilaus Tarp, Jens Ole Bach Hansen
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In an increasingly interconnected world multilateral cooperation becomes more important as countries are forced to work together to address new global challenges. Traditionally, multilateral fora have provided a stage for small countries to exercise influence and act internationally. The authors argue that small countries have a set of assets at their disposal compared to larger countries that give them a comparative advantage in a multilateral world order. To make that argument, the paper highlights a number of examples based on the authors' first-hand experience from the Danish Foreign Service and the United Nations and summarises the toolbox of small countries that seek to pursue political influence in multilateral organizations.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Louise Riis Andersen, Peter Emil Engedal
  • Publication Date: 10-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Multidimensional peace operations have emerged as one of the key instruments for addressing and managing the complex challenges related to violent conflict and state fragility in the Global South. Based on a reading of existing literature Louise Riis Andersen and Peter Emil Engedal provide an overview of what we know of the UN's ability to assist war-torn societies in laying the foundations for lasting peace. The basic message of the report is that peacekeeping works, but statebuilding fails: In general, multidimensional UN-led peace operations have been successful at preventing the resumption of war, yet they have not succeeded in establishing effective and legitimate institutions of governance. The report also concludes that while the system is far from perfect, the UN peacekeeping apparatus has been reformed and strengthen considerably in the past decade. Outstanding challenges relate to contextualising interventions and ensuring local ownership, as well as to maintaining the normative consensus on the role of UN peace operations.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, War, Peacekeeping, Reform
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Aki Tonami, Anders Riel Müller
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Environmental aid has become a major component of foreign aid, as environmental degradation and climate change have arisen as global concerns. Japan contends it has committed itself to the protection of the global environment since the 90s, and environmental aid has been an important part of that effort. South Korea has recently become an emerging actor in the development aid community and has also started to market its green diplomacy through programs such as the Global Green Growth Institute. Meanwhile, both Japanese aid and Korean aid have been criticized for being driven by their economic interests rather than altruism and that they focus too strongly on infrastructure projects.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace Studies, United Nations, War, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Japan
  • Author: Lily Salloum Lindegaard
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This working paper aims to better understand the drivers of institutional change. To do this, it locates diverse institutional change theories, specifically path dependency, gradu¬al institutional change and institutional bricolage, in a power context and reflects on the power-related aspects of each theory. It then develops a novel approach of a power analysis of institutional change, which allows for the combined use of institutional change theories despite their diverse theoretical underpinnings and thus offers a thorough, highly complex consideration of institutional change.
  • Topic: International Affairs, Political Theory, Power Politics, Reform
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Lars Buur, Obede Baloi, Carlota Mondlane Tembe
  • Publication Date: 01-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Since the General Peace Accord (GPA) in 1992 ending the civil war and the first democratic elections in 1994, Mozambique has experienced a peaceful transition towards democracy, underpinned by successive rounds of local and national elections, which have been, if not totally free, then at least sufficiently free to be accepted by the international community. This, combined with sustained economic growth (Sousa and Sulemane 2007), a substantial decline in people living below the poverty line, relatively high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) and very high and continued levels of foreign donor support has made Mozambique 'a success story' for the international donor community where few such stories seem available (Renzio and Hanlon 2006: 3). This has triggered continuous and generous levels of assistance and made Mozambique the ultimate 'donor darling'. But with the opening up of the rich natural resource endowment in energy, gas, oil and minerals to exploitation after Frelimo's election victory in 2009, the country stands at a critical juncture, with the potential to become donor-independent within the foreseeable future.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, Political Economy, Politics, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Julie Elisabeth Pruzan-Jørgensen
  • Publication Date: 01-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Islamic women's activism may appear a contradiction in terms to many Western audiences accustomed to presentations of Islam as counterproductive to the promotion of women's empowerment and the situation of women more generally. Yet in the Arab world (and beyond) many different groups and individuals – as scholars, as charity and welfare providers, and as religious or political activists – work to empower women based on Islamic arguments and references.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Islam, Politics, Regime Change
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: K. M. Jensen, R. B. Lange, J. C. Refsgaard
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Normative ideals for 'good water management' have proliferated the last twenty years. However, evidence of effective implementation is scarce. This paper analyzes cases from India, the Mekong and Denmark where attempts have been made to translate water management ideals into practice. The purpose is to demonstrate the importance of politics and power for water management processes and their outcomes. The concept of social learning is applied in order to understand the dynamic interplay between actors, institutions and power in the political processes involved. It is argued that the political economy of water tends to vest the stronger stakeholders with an interest in upholding the status quo. Consequently, social learning typically centers on the 'low lying fruits' that does not challenge the prevailing distribution of resources. The authors, Kurt Mørck Jensen, Rane Baadsgaard Lange, and Jens Christian Refsgaard argue that strategic approaches looking outside the 'water box' are necessary to foster deeper changes in water resources management in both developing and developed countries.
  • Topic: Political Economy, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: Europe, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, Tom Mwebaze
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explains the differences in ruling elite support for the fisheries and dairy sectors in Uganda. Although production in Uganda has not generally been promoted in any sustained way, ruling elites have to varying degrees supported the dairy and fisheries sectors. The paper shows that the ruling elite initially supported the fishing industry because of industry pressure. They have failed to enforce fisheries management because there are big political costs associated with such enforcement. The dairy sector in the southwestern milk region was initially supported because the ruling elite wanted to build a coalition of support in this region. Coming from the region himself, the president had a keen interest in dairy cattle. The sector was subsequently regulated because the biggest processor put pressure on the ruling elite to do so. Even when the ruling coalition is fragmented, promoting production is possible if there is strong industry pressure and when the initiatives to promote the sector are also seen to help build or maintain the ruling coalition.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Poverty, Social Stratification
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, Tom Mwebaze
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper sets out to explain policies, implementation arrangements and results (PIRs) in Uganda's fisheries sector. Industry actors wanted to be able to keep up with European standards in order to survive in the chilled and frozen fillet export industry. They put pressure on ruling elites to support the establishment of effective hygiene and testing procedures. This helped the fishing industry succeed to an extent that helped create interests in the status quo. Fishermen, their dependents, and the fish processors all wanted to maintain a high level of fish catches. It was politically costly for ruling elites to enforce fisheries management because strict enforcement was unpopular with fishermen, as well as with many fishermen and security agents who benefitted from illegal fishing. Therefore, the success was not maintained: a pocket of efficiency was established with regard to hygiene and testing, but not with regard to enforcing fisheries management. Overfishing and the near collapse of the fishing sector were the results.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Social Stratification
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa, Europe
  • Author: Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Tom Mwebaze
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The dairy sector is one of the only agricultural sectors in Uganda that has enjoyed sustained high growth since the late 1980s. Milk and the cold dairy chain developed especially in the south-western part of the country. This paper explains why this is so by the sector's relation to the ruling coalition. We argue that the dairy sector was relatively successful because the south-western based ruling elite wanted to build a support base in its home area. In addition, the elite had a special interest in dairy since key elite members owned dairy cattle themselves. As milk production grew, the ruling elite wanted to regulate the sector as this would help the big processor, the state owned and later privatized Dairy Corporation. Regulation was relatively successful and a pocket of bureaucratic efficiency was established in an agency called the Dairy Development Authority. The reason why regulation was enforced to a considerable extent was the organization of dairy farmers and traders and the bargaining and compromise with the Dairy Development Authority this organization of industry actors enabled.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Government, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield, Niels Fold
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores what can be learned about the development of a productive sector and the factors that affect the process of upgrading and innovation, through a comparative assessment of the experiences of Malaysia and Ghana in the palm oil sector. The purpose is not to carry out a direct comparison of the trajectories of the sectors in the two countries, which would serve only to emphasize the failures in the 'construction' of the palm industry in Ghana. Rather, the role of context must be acknowledged, such that learning starts with understanding key points in the industries' trajectories that either break or accelerate path dependency. Thus, the paper focuses on the differing contextual factors and initial conditions, and how they shaped early divergent paths and industry structures, as well as the presence or absence of factors supporting expansion and diversification within each country's trajectory.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, Malaysia
  • Author: Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde, Mikkel Funder, Ida Peters Ginsborg
  • Publication Date: 03-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The report presents the main findings of a desk study of experiences with conflict prevention and resolution in natural resource management, and how these can be applied in development cooperation in relation to climate change.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Climate Change, Environment, Political Theory
  • Author: Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde, Mikkel Funder, Ida Peters Ginsborg
  • Publication Date: 03-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The report presents the main findings of a desk study of experiences with conflict prevention and resolution in natural resource management, and how these can be applied in development cooperation in relation to climate change.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Climate Change, Development, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Cindy Vestergaard, France Bourgouin
  • Publication Date: 05-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The world uranium industry has been undergoing a resurgence since 2002, and current supplies are not meeting demand. This increase in energy demand, coupled with concerns about energy security, is fuelling commercial interests in mining uranium. In 2010 the Greenland Government decided to relax its zero-tolerance uranium policy and allowed mining companies to explore prospects for potential uranium mining. With Greenland having the potential to become a uranium supplier, there are a range of domestic and international policy challenges that need to be addressed.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Natural Resources, Nuclear Power
  • Political Geography: Europe, Greenland
  • Author: Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh
  • Publication Date: 03-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and its leader, Yoweri Museveni, came to power, they had an explicit agenda of industrializing the economy (Kjær and Muhumuza, 2009). Improved infrastructure and increased production and productivity were the focus. Indeed, Uganda enjoyed a period of sustained economic growth of about 7 percent annually between 1990 and 2006 (Piron and Norton, 2004; Kjær and Muhumuza, 2009), made possible by a stable ruling coalition, macro-economic stability, low inflation (until recently), and relative peace. Poverty declined from 56 percent in 1991 to 25 percent in 20101 However, there has been limited structural transformation in terms of a shift from agriculture to industry. A number of explanations for this could be put forward, whether institutional, policy-oriented or geographical (Selassie, 2008; van de Walle, 2001). None of them, however, explains fully how Uganda, in spite of an initially highly dedicated ruling elite, did not succeed in transforming its economy. For example, Uganda is a landlocked country, but so is Zimbabwe, which is far more industrialized. Similarly, while Uganda certainly has weak institutions, so did other countries that have succeeded in industrializing (Selassie, 2008).
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Post Colonialism
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa, Zimbabwe
  • Author: Ole Therkildsen, France Bourgouin
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper presents analyses of the current composition of Tanzania's ruling coalition, comprised mainly of the ruling party (the CCM), the bureaucracy and the military, of how it has changed over time and of how its funding has evolved. Specifically, it discusses how historical legacies, structural changes in the economy and specific crises have influenced the composition of the ruling coalition, the holding power of its factions and the strategic use of resources to maintain its power. The paper concludes that Tanzania's ruling coalition is presently characterised by conflicts and bargaining among strong factional elites within the ruling coalition and by the increasing power of its lower level factions. Opposition parties are largely excluded from influence and remain weak. Economic entrepreneurs in the formal productive sectors are few and poorly organised. Their relations with the ruling coalition are ambiguous and largely informal, although exchanges of money and rents are of increasing importance in the relationship. Moreover, informal sector entrepreneurs and smallholders in agriculture are largely excluded from the ruling coalition. There is little evidence that the ruling coalition – despite decades of political stability – has used its position to build and strengthen the productive capacity of domestic entrepreneurs.
  • Topic: Corruption, Democratization, Development, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Lars Erslev Andersen
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The global balance of power is changing, and the role of the US as the only superpower is being challenged by emerging new powers and a still more powerful China. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf. This Working Paper by DIIS researcher Lars Erslev Andersen argues that if we are fully to understand the developments in the Persian Gulf we need to analyze the Persian Gulf as a regional security complex in its own right. The argument is developed empirically with reference to the case of Bahrain.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, Power Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Middle East, Arabia, Bahrain
  • Author: Leila Stockmarr
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Changing with rapid speed, the current political geography of the occupied Palestinian territory has de facto come to undermine a two-state solution and is turning the official aim and end point of international negotiations at best into a naïve mirage for policymakers and at worst into a façade for a very different political game playing out in the occupied territory of the West Bank and Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem: that of Israel's ongoing territorial expansion into Palestinian land. The study shows how the settlement policies inside what are internationally-recognised Palestinian territories are not merely undermining the realisation of the two-state solution: the territorial claims put forward and pursued in practice and their anchoring in strategies of legitimisation reach far beyond international legal standards. This reveals a very different political narrative embedded at the core of the conflict from that projected by those images often appearing in the mainstream media and policy circles: a narrative of an ongoing struggle over land detached from any 'Peace Process' measures.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia
  • Author: Katja Lindskov Jacobsen
  • Publication Date: 07-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Biometric technology has been afforded a central role in the security architecture that Western governments have forged since the events of 9/11 2001. With biometrics the body becomes the anchor of identification. In a security architecture centred on identification of persons of interest and determination of their status as friend or foe, biometrics has come to be praised for its supposedly exceptional capacity to identify reliably.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Science and Technology, Biosecurity
  • Author: Nauja Kleist, Ida Vammen
  • Publication Date: 07-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Migrants send remittances three times worth official development aid to developing countries, reaching an estimated 325 USD Billion in 2012. Transnational migrant and diaspora organizations support social service, infrastructural and reconstruction projects – such as schools and hospitals – in their erstwhile home regions. Finally diaspora professionals contribute to reconstruction and development processes through temporary or long-term return. How can donors partner with them and support their contributions?
  • Topic: Development, Migration, Foreign Aid, Immigration, Infrastructure, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Erik Beukel
  • Publication Date: 07-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The divided Korean peninsula is a flashpoint in the regional security complex in East Asia. The central issue is the threat posed by North Korea and how to meet it. After a review of North Korea as an international actor and of two important incidents in 2010 (the sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan and North Korea's shelling of the South Korean coastal island of Yeonpyeong), the rationality underlying the country's military efforts is considered. South Korea's Nordpolitik is reviewed and the rise and decline of its sunshine policy and the role of its alliance with the United States is described. Two non-Korean great powers, China and the United States, are important actors in the region, and their relations with North Korea, goals and priorities, and implementation strategies are outlined. The report concludes with reflections on the potential for changing the present security complex, which is marked by a fear of war, into a restrained security regime, based on agreed and observed rules of conduct.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, Communism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Korea, Island
  • Author: Mikkel Funder, Ian Christoplos, Ida Peters, Adam Pain, Esbern Friis-Hansen
  • Publication Date: 09-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This literature review summarises selected theories of institutional change, with a particular emphasis on issues relevant to the Climate Change and Rural Institutions (CCRI) research programme. The review focuses on concepts that can be applied in understanding how and why meso level institutions operating at district and provincial levels respond or fail to respond when faced with climate change related upheavals. The review examines the concepts of path dependency, gradual institutional change and institutional bricolage, and how these tools might be used to understand processes of change in meso level institutions when faced by catastrophic environmental change.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Governance
  • Author: José Jaime Macuane
  • Publication Date: 09-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Discussion of development strategies in Mozambique reveals three main perspectives on the role of elites in the policy process: donor dominance, political dominance over technocracy, and the emergence of non-state (economic and civil society) actors as players in the policy process, although still with a marginal role. These analyses tend to see the identity of these actors as monolithic and clearly identifiable. The identities condition the involvement of these actors in a set of dichotomous relations, such as politicians versus technocrats, donors versus internal actors, and state versus non-state actors. Based on this understanding, this paper analyses the role of elites in policy processes, focusing on elite formation and power relations in Mozambique in a context of an economically dependent country undergoing democratization. The paper shows that the dominant analyses of the role of the elites in the policy process in Mozambique overlook the process of elite formation, which contributes to the existence of multiple and overlapping elite identities in the policy process. In this regard, the paper concludes that, despite the emergence of new elites (economic, societal and bureaucratic) resulting from economic and political liberalization and as an aspect of pro-poor policies, the differentiation between these elitesis more apparent than real because of the strategies they have adopted to maintain their dominance in a context of the increasing importance of electoral politics. Further, the paper concludes that the political elite still dominates the process, even with donor dependence, but that nonetheless this dominance is being challenged by an erosion of legitimacy caused by the low effectiveness of the development strategies, reflected in increasing public contestation over government policies, which opens up a space for changes in the current pattern of elite relations.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Rune Friberg , Lyme
  • Publication Date: 10-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Local demonstrations in the provincial town of Da'ra in March 2011 fuelled the eruption of unprecedented popular demonstrations and protests throughout Syria. The Syrian leadership's half-hearted promises of reforms were accompanied by brutal repression that propelled the conflict into escalating violence and ultimately a vicious and complex civil war. Dismayed by the unfolding events, a number of countries and regional organisations imposed sanctions on Syria with reference to the regime's grave human rights abuses from 29 April 2011 onwards. As the conflict has drawn out a substantial battery of international sanctions has been developed, most significantly by the USA, Turkey, the League of Arab States and the European Union. Aimed initially at bringing the repression to a halt and, later, to an increasing extent at weakening the Syrian regime, the sanctions have primarily targeted: equipment and material used for monitoring and repression; the Syrian oil and energy sector; the banking and financial sector; and there are also sanctions targeted at individuals believed either to be responsible for or assisting in the regime's oppression.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia, Syria
  • Author: Michael Kidoido, Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, Rachel Spichiger, Sarah Alobo
  • Publication Date: 11-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Land is an important asset for people's livelihoods and for economic development in Uganda, where the majority of people live in rural areas. This working paper reviews the literature on Uganda's tenure systems and their relationship with economic activities, focusing primarily on rural agricultural land. The review illustrates that these relationships are complex and context-dependent.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Poverty, Law
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Erik Beukel
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Sino-Japanese relationship is a highly complex one, marked both by Japan's aggressive wars from the 1930s on and the present economic interdependence between the two countries. Focusing on the role of the territorial conflict in the East China Sea, this DIIS Report considers how China's leaders handle anti-Japanese nationalism by adopting a Janusian stance and pursuing both China's basic interest in close economic relations with Japan and also domestic stability. After a review of Chinese and Japanese sovereignty claims in the area and of the rise of nationalism since the early 1980s, four crises over the East China Sea are examined to identify the character of and changes in China's policy. For the last ten years China's leaders have attempted to conduct a more pragmatic policy towards Japan and evade the pernicious shadow of history. But this policy faces critical problems both in a growing popular nationalism in China and in the Japanese government's lack of willingness to restrain their own nationalists and the absence of legal possibilities for them to do so.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Jakob Vestergaard
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The voice reform process originated in the Monterrey Consensus, which was articulated at the United Nations International Conference on Financing for Development held in Monterrey on 22 March 2002. For several years after the Monterrey Consensus, progress in deliberations on voice reform in the governing bodies of the World Bank was modest. But the global economic crisis raised the urgency of reforming the Bretton Woods institutions in the eyes of most countries and the creation of a G20 Leaders Forum gave further impetus to the voice reform process.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Affairs, World Bank
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Jens Ringsmose(ed.), Sten Rynning(ed.)
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: On 19 November 2010 NATO formally agreed to adopt a New Strategic Concept. After a long, tightly scheduled and generally speaking fairly transparent process the NATO family endorsed an updated understanding of what the core purpose of the Atlantic Alliance is at the Lisbon Summit. NATO's basic text – the Washington Treaty of 1949 – was, as it were, once again re-interpreted within a specific geopolitical context to fit an ever-changing strategic landscape. Or, put differently, with the adoption of the New Strategic Concept NATO sought to bring its basic interests and strategic thinking into line with the security environment as it has evolved since 1999 when the Alliance adopted its last Strategic Concept. Launched to great fanfare and amidst many high expectations this key text entitled 'Active Engagement, Modern Defence' is projected to confer a new strategic direction on NATO and to inform the world about why the Atlantic Alliance is still vital and vigorous.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Cooperation, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Washington
  • Author: Trine Flockhart
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: NATO now has a new Strategic Concept entitled Active Engagement – Modern Defence, agreed at the Lisbon Summit on 19 November 2010. The new Strategic Concept is heaped with high expectations, that it will produce what US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder has called a 'NATO Version 3.0', which will ensure that the Alliance is fit for facing the challenges of the 21st century.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Organization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Janne Bjerre Christensen
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This report offers a critical examination of Iran's influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Two points are made: that Iran's top priority is its own regime's survival and its regional policies are directed by its national security concerns. Secondly, that Iran's engagements in Afghanistan are clearly guided by the presence of the US. Iran's predominant interest is in stabilizing Afghanistan, but as long as Afghanistan is neither safe nor stable, Iran will play a double game and engage with its regional neighbours according to the US–Iran equation. Deterrence, counter-containment and competition are the keywords in these complex relations. The report outlines Iran's reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, its political platform and 'soft power', and the bonds of mutual dependency in terms of water rights, refugees and drug trafficking. It examines Iran's alleged military interventions and the reasons for playing this double game. Lastly, the report discusses Iran's tense relationship with Pakistan with regard to both Afghanistan and the troubled region of Baluchistan.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Power Politics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran