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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Resolution Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution Council on Foreign Relations

1. U.S. Policy to Counter Nigeria's Boko Haram

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The April 2014 kidnapping of more than 250 schoolgirls from Chibok in northern Nigeria by the militant Islamist group Boko Haram—and the lethargic response of Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan's government— provoked outrage. But the kidnapping is only one of many challenges Nigeria faces. The splintering of political elites, Boko Haram's revolt in the north, persistent ethnic and religious conflict in the country's Middle Belt, the deterioration of the Nigerian army, a weak federal government, unprecedented corruption, and likely divisive national elections in February 2015 with a potential resumption of an insurrection in the oil patch together test Nigeria in ways unprecedented since the 1966–70 civil war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Nigeria

2. Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation

Author:
Daniel Markey
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
India faces the real prospect of another major terrorist attack by Pakistan-based terrorist organizations in the near future. Unlike the aftermath of the November 2008 attack on Mumbai, in which 166 people died, Indian military restraint cannot be taken for granted if terrorists strike again. An Indian retaliatory strike against terrorist targets on Pakistani soil would raise Indo-Pakistani tensions and could even set off a spiral of violent escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals. Given Washington's effort to intensify pressure on al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and associated militants operating from Pakistani territory, increased tensions between India and Pakistan would harm U.S. interests even if New Delhi and Islamabad stop well short of the nuclear threshold because it would distract Pakistan from counterterror and counterinsurgency operations, jeopardize the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, and place new, extreme stresses on Islamabad.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, Washington, India, New Delhi, and Mumbai

3. UN Security Council Enlargement and U.S. Interests

Author:
Kara C. McDonald and Stewart M. Patrick
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Advancing U.S. national interests in an era of global threats depends on effective multilateral action. Global institutions inherited from the past are struggling to adapt to the rise of new challenges and powers. “The international architecture of the 20th century is buckling,” declares the new U.S. National Security Strategy. President Barack Obama has committed his administration to renovating outdated institutions and integrating emerging powers as pillars of a rule-based international order. Renovation of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and its membership must be a core component of this agenda. President Obama's announcement in November 2010 of U.S. support for a permanent UNSC seat for India is a critical first step in this direction.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Organization, United Nations, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

4. Parsing Iran's 'Momentous' Internal Drama

Author:
Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Karim Sadjadpour, a leading Iranian analyst who worked for four years in Iran for the International Crisis Group, says that given the "unprecedented" scale of protests in Iran over the presidential election results, "it's very difficult to see how the status quo ante could prevail no matter what happens." However, he believes the United States should continue trying to stay out of the political infighting in Iran. "This is extremely delicate and the situation is so dynamic," Sadjadpour says. "We clearly have to be on the right side of history here, but if we try to insert ourselves into the momentous internal Iranian drama that's unfolding we may unwittingly undermine those whom we're trying to strengthen."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Politics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
America and Iran

5. Understanding the Armed Groups of the Niger Delta

Author:
Judith Burdin Asuni
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
When a group of Western oil workers was kidnapped in the Niger Delta in January 2006, the immediate hike in prices at gas stations around the world served as a timely reminder of the importance of this unstable region to international oil supplies. A previously unknown group announced it was holding the workers. It called itself the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and quickly sparked panic within the oil industry with a second set of kidnappings and a series of attacks on oil facilities. Anxiety reached new heights when, in an email sent to journalists, MEND claimed responsibility for an attack on an offshore facility, Bonga, in mid-2008. The installation, located a full seventy-five miles from the mainland, had previously been considered too ambitious a target for the militants. By the summer of 2008, oil was trading at $147 a barrel and oil production in the Delta was down by a quarter. Who was this mysterious group, whose members—armed with little more than a few AK-47s and speedboats—were able to massively disrupt oil supplies and wreak havoc on world commodity prices? Where did it come from, and what does it want? Is it a coherent group with clearly defined aims and political ambitions? Or is it merely a disparate ragtag of disillusioned youths, with powerful backers, intent on little more than petty criminality?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Crime, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa

6. The Tragedy of Palestinian Divisions (Interview with Rashid Khalidi)

Author:
Rashid Khalidi
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
A leading expert on Palestinian affairs, Rashid Khalidi, says it is crucial for the Palestinian rivals, Hamas, in Gaza, and Fatah, in the West Bank, to reconcile and create a unified negotiating position with Israel. "This is not something that's impossible," he says. "Fatah and Hamas have agreed three times in the past, only to have those agreements collapse." Khalidi also urges the Obama administration to change its policy of isolating Hamas, which he says is counterproductive to the Mideast peace mission it has vowed to pursue. Khalidi says, despite his frustration, he has not given up on Obama's peace efforts. "I don't think that the moment has entirely passed when something can be done," he says. "I do not believe that it is too late to bring about a two-state solution."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

7. Obama's Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan, December 2009

Author:
Barack Obama
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Obama gave this address on December 1, 2009 at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, Armed Struggle, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and New York

8. Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea

Author:
Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
For most of the 1990s, North Korea was under what can only be called a prolonged deathwatch, so common and confident were predictions of its demise. Despite suffering acute economic stress from the loss of its principal economic patron—the Soviet Union—in 1991, the sudden death of its founding father––Kim Il-Sung––in 1994, and then soon after a devastating famine that may have claimed as many as a million lives, North Korea managed to survive. By decade's end, North Korea's extraordinary resilience, combined with its defiant and at times belligerent attitude to the rest of the world, had convinced most experts that this was not a country about to pass either quickly or quietly into the history books. Since then, the conventional wisdom among most if not all North Korea watchers is that it will muddle through indefinitely even if its long-term future remains doubtful.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

9. Congo: Securing Peace, Sustaining Progress

Author:
Anthony W. Gambino
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, New York, Washington, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

10. Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk

Author:
Monty G. Marshall
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
A public debate over the threat posed by weak, fragile, failing, and failed states and what can or should be done about them has become increasing visible and vocal since the attacks of September 11, 2001. As President George W. Bush declared in his 2002 National Security Strategy report: “America is now threatened less by conquering states than ... by failing ones.” This debate has grown particularly acute as the United States' prolonged military response to the war on global terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq has revealed the difficulties of controlling militancy and extremism by direct military intervention and enforced democratic change. The challenges associated with weak or failing states have garnered increase d attention by the policy community, but major differences about how to assess the level of risk in any given case remain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Development, Diplomacy, Government, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and America

11. Planning for Post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

Author:
Michelle D. Gavin
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the refusal of President Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) ruling party to tolerate challenges to their power has led them to systematically dismantle the most effective workings of Zimbabwe's economic and political systems, replacing these with structures of corruption, patronage, and repression. The resulting 80 percent unemployment rate, hyperinflation, and severe food, fuel, and power shortages have created a national climate of desperation and instability. Meanwhile, often-violent repression has left the opposition divided and eroded public confidence in mechanisms to effect peaceful political change.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

12. Burma: Time for a Change

Author:
Mathea Falco
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On May 30, 2003, the Burmese military regime orchestrated violent attacks by progovernment militia on Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), and her supporters as they traveled outside Mandalay. At least four of her bodyguards were killed, as were a significant number of others. She has been in prison since then. Following the attacks, the regime arrested more than 100 democracy activists, imprisoned at least a dozen, shut down NLD offices across the country, and closed schools and universities. This is the bloodiest confrontation between Burma's military rulers and democracy supporters since 1988, when the government suppressed a popular uprising against the regime and thousands were killed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:
Asia and Burma

13. Bolivia on the Brink

Author:
Eduardo A. Gamarra
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Since gaining independence from Spain in 1825, Bolivia has endured nearly two hundred coups and countercoups. Despite the establishment of comparatively democratic, civilian rule in Bolivia in 1982 through a system of “pacted democracy,” Bolivian leaders still face many of the same difficult problems as they did twenty years ago: deep-seated poverty, social exclusion of the indigenous and mestizo (of mixed racial ancestry) majority, and illegal drug production.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Spain, and Bolivia

14. Peace in Papua: Widening a Window of Opportunity

Author:
Blair King
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In 2006 and 2007, the Indonesian government and the international community have a window of opportunity to begin to achieve a comprehensive solution that is acceptable to all sides to the conflict in Papua. With the October 2004 inauguration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla, Papuans had raised expectations that a comprehensive settlement could be achieved. These expectations have only increased with the implementation of a peace agreement for Aceh since August 2005. Furthermore, Yudhoyono and Kalla are not up for reelection until 2009, and their national public approval ratings remain quite high, providing them with plenty of political breathing room for reasonable initiatives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Australia/Pacific, and Papua

15. Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy

Author:
Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and all that followed, Afghans and the handful of internationals working on Afghanistan could hardly have imagined being fortunate enough to confront today's problems. The Bonn Agreement of December 2001 providing for the “reestablishment of permanent government institutions” in Afghanistan was fully completed with the adoption of a constitution in January 2004, the election of President Hamid Karzai in October 2004, and the formation of the National Assembly in December 2005.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

16. A New Beginning: Strategies for a More Fruitful Dialogue with the Muslim World

Author:
Craig Charney and Nicole Yakatan
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Focus group research in Morocco, Egypt, and Indonesia has shown that it is possible to improve the image of the United States in the Muslim world. Although many Muslims are angry at what they perceive America does, the right efforts to communicate can produce significant shifts in attitudes. Such efforts would involve listening more, speaking in a humbler tone, and focusing on bilateral aid and partnership, while tolerating disagreement on controversial policy issues. Fortunately, a window of opportunity has opened with the Iraqi elections, renewed hope for Israeli-Palestinian peace, tsunami relief, and developments in Lebanon and Egypt, as well as the start of a new administration in Washington. This moment, marked by an easing of tensions and the arrival of new actors on both sides, offers the possibility of a new beginning in America's dialogue with the Muslim world.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Indonesia, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and Morocco

17. Power-Sharing in Iraq

Author:
David L. Phillips
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Iraq's elections on January 30, 2005, were a watershed in the country's history. Still, democracy involves much more than voting. It is about the distribution of political power through institutions and laws that guarantee accountable rule. The real fight for power will be over Iraq's permanent constitution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

18. Iraq: One Year After

Author:
Thomas R. Pickering, James R. Schlesinger, and Eric P. Schwartz
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On March 20, 2003, the United States launched Operation Iraqi Freedom, designed to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein. By mid-April, major fighting was essentially over, and on May 1, the United States declared an end to major combat operations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

19. Nonlethal Weapons and Capabilities

Author:
Paul X. Kelley, Richard L. Garwin, and Graham T. Allison
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In the four weeks of “major conflict” in Iraq that began on March 19, 2003, U.S. forces demonstrated the power of training, transformation, and joint operations. However, the ensuing support and stability phase has been plagued by looting, sabotage, and insurgency. Wider integration of existing types of nonlethal weapons (NLW) into the U.S. Army and Marine Corps could have helped to reduce the damage done by widespread looting and sabotage after the cessation of major conflict in Iraq. Incorporating these and additional forms of nonlethal capabilities more broadly into the equipment, training, and doctrine of the armed services could substantially improve U.S. effectiveness in achieving the goals of modern war. Nonlethal weapons and capabilities have much to offer also in the conduct of war, in the prevention of hostilities, and in support of homeland defense. Indeed, a force using nonlethal weapons and capabilities has the potential of achieving combat and support goals more effectively than would a force employing only lethal means. How to achieve these benefits is the subject of this report.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, and War
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

20. Iraq: The Day After

Author:
Thomas R. Pickering and James R. Schlesinger
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If the United States goes to war and removes the regime of Saddam Hussein, American interests will demand an extraordinary commitment of U.S. financial and personnel resources to postconflict transitional assistance and reconstruction. These interests include eliminating Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD); ending Iraqi contacts, whether limited or extensive, with international terrorist organizations; ensuring that a post-transition Iraqi government can maintain the country's territorial integrity and independence while contributing to regional stability; and offering the people of Iraq a future in which they have a meaningful voice in the vital decisions that impact their lives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East