Search

You searched for: Content Type Working Paper Remove constraint Content Type: Working Paper Publishing Institution Centre for European Policy Studies Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies Political Geography United States Remove constraint Political Geography: United States Topic Economics Remove constraint Topic: Economics
Number of results to display per page

Search Results

  • Author: Clara Portela
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This study analyses the use by the European Union of the novel concept of 'targeted sanctions' in the framework of its Common Foreign and Security Policy. It examines two sets of sanctions regimes featuring different degrees of efficacy: in Myanmar and Zimbabwe, the EU wielded measures in support of human rights and democracy objectives in the absence of a United Nations mandate, while it supplemented UN sanctions to stop nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea. The study highlights a number of facilitators of, or hindrances to, the efficacy of sanctions, such as the degree of support by regional powers or the presence of UN legitimation. It concludes that the EU sanctions regimes could be optimised by using more robust measures, designing them on the basis of ex ante assessments, enabling faster upgrades, monitoring their impact and adjusting them regularly and improving outreach efforts.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Sanctions
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, United Nations, Zimbabwe
  • Author: Daniel Gros, Cinzia Alcidi
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores three areas in which the experience of the Great Depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy and the systemic stability of the banking system. We confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation must be avoided. With regard to fiscal policy, the picture is less clear. We cannot confirm a widespread opinion according to which fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. We find that fiscal policy went to the limit of what was possible within the confines of sustainability, as they existed then. Our investigation of the US banking system shows a surprising resilience of the sector: commercial banking operations (deposit-taking and lending) remained profitable even during the worst years. This suggests one policy conclusion: At present the authorities in both the US and Europe have little choice but to make up for the losses on 'legacy' assets and wait for banks to earn back their capital. But to prevent future crises of this type, one should make sure that losses from the investment banking arms cannot impair commercial banking operations. At least a partial separation of commercial and investment banking thus seems justified by the greater stability of commercial banking operations.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros, Cecilia Frale
  • Publication Date: 06-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of the ongoing housing bust and oil price boom on the US and European economies. It finds that large house price movements (changes in construction investment) are useful to predict exceptionally bad and good times for the US economy, but not for most large European countries. In Europe housing market developments have led to extreme values of GDP, mainly in the UK, Spain and some Nordic countries.
  • Topic: Economics, Oil
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Christian Egenhofer, Arno Behrens, Jorge Núñez Ferrer
  • Publication Date: 08-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This study focuses on the financial resources needed to fight global climate change and the implications for the EU budget. The authors apply four different methodologies to estimate global financing requirements and attempt to determine the resources that will be needed at the EU level to meet the EU's climate change objectives. The study analyses current climate change spending of the EU budget, identifies shortcomings and indicates possibilities for correcting them. It also assesses the potential of the EU emissions trading scheme to raise additional resources to finance coordinated actions at the EU level aimed at fighting climate change. Finally, it provides three case studies of national public expenditure related to climate change in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros, Andrea Beccarini
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: With inflation increasing all over the world, central banks have to consider with some care how quickly to re-establish price stability. A key issue in this context is the short-run cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment. The aim of this paper is to determine the 'sacrifice ratio' for the Euro Area and for the United States. The main findings are: the cost of reducing inflation is in most cases higher in the US than in the EA. For example, reducing (headline) inflation by 1% point requires a decline of output of 1.4% in the EU, but 2.3% for the US. Considering core inflation, the sacrifice ratio in terms of output is somewhat higher for the Euro Area (around 4) compared to 3.2 for the US. However, the sacrifice ratios in terms of unemployment are always much larger for the US. Reducing headline inflation by 1% requires an increase in unemployment of little more than 1% in the EA, compared to 8% in the US.
  • Topic: Economics, Foreign Exchange
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Cecilia Frale, Jørgen Mortensen
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The recent surge in commodity prices and the European Central Bank's decision in June to raise interest rates to combat inflation have ignited a debate about the appropriateness of raising interest rates during a phase of weakening activity. In addition, it is relevant to examine the approaches to measuring the rate of inflation, to consider the advantages and drawbacks of these methods, and finally to throw new light on the possible influence of monetary policy on the fundamental trends in prices.
  • Topic: Economics, Foreign Exchange
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 10-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The downturn in the US housing market has attracted a lot of attention as it has sparked a global financial crisis. It is generally assumed that the eurozone does not face a similar problem. This paper shows that this assumption is wrong. The euro area average index of real housing prices has risen almost as much as that of the US and is now (as that of the US) about 40% above its 30-year average. This is similar to the overvaluation of Japanese real estate at the height of the Japanese bubble, which was then followed by over a decade of continuous decline. Over the last 30 years, the euro area index for real housing prices has tended to follow that of the US quite closely. The lag is now much shorter than in the 1970s or 1980s. The euro area market is thus likely to turn soon as well. One feature of housing price cycles that tends to be forgotten is their extraordinary length: many last for more than ten years. This persistence means that the downswing, which now seems to have started, is likely to last at least until the next decade. Within the euro area, there are large divergences: cases of 'froth' (Spain, for example) co-exist alongside cases of declining prices (Germany). These divergences have persisted for over a decade and have led to important macroeconomic disequilibria. The paper also develops an indicator of 'housing overhang', which shows by how much demand for new construction has to decline to bring the supply of housing back to normal levels. This indicator suggests that there is virtually no housing overhang in the eurozone on average and that it is of a manageable magnitude in the US. Spain and Ireland, however, face a massive housing overhang and thus probably a sharp deceleration of construction demand.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Wusheng Yu, Hans G. Jensen
  • Publication Date: 01-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The July package of the Doha Round of trade negotiations stipulates that a tiered-formula approach should be used to significantly reduce market access barriers across countries, implying that the EU would have to make larger cuts to its high external tariffs, in comparison with many other WTO members such as the US. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the likely impact of the tiered-formula reform approach on EU agricultural sectors. Numerical simulations of a multilateral market-access reform scenario show that such cuts would lead to across-the-board decreases in intra-EU trade flows, as compared with a baseline projection. While intra-EU trade flows would decrease, the EU's trade with the rest of the world would increase. Yet such increases would not be symmetric – imports into the EU would increase more than exports, resulting in larger external trade deficits or smaller external trade surpluses in many EU agricultural products. Further, the resulting adjustments in member states' production and net trade positions are not equal: the new member states would generally lose part of their export shares in the EU market to external competitors, as highlighted in the cases of bovine meat and dairy products.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Leonor Coutinho
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyses alternative monetary policy rules for the ECB, using a two "country" model of the euro area and the US, that assumes monopolistic competition, sticky prices and optimizing agents. The alternative rules analyzed for the ECB are ranked by their ability to stabilize consumption, output, and inflation and maximize consumers' welfare. The analysis contributes toward understanding the trade-offs faced by policymakers in open economies and provides some support for the current design of the ECB's operational framework. The results suggest that stabilizing money-growth, in addition to inflation, gives an additional degree of freedom to stabilize output. Although price stability is likely to remain the primary objective of the ECB, monetary policy must "without prejudice of price stability (...) support the general economic policies in the Community..." (Article 2). Hence monitoring money, under certain assumptions about the shocks hitting the economy, may deliver a better outcome in terms of output stabilization which should allow the ECB to fulfill its secondary but nonetheless important commitment.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Roberto Perotti
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows:1 ) The estimated effects of fiscal policy on GDP tend to be small: positive government spending multipliers larger than 1 tend to be the exception; 2) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; 3) Under plausible values of the price elasticity, government spending has positive effects on the price level, although usually small; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the nominal and real short interest rate, but of varying signs; 5) In the post-1980 period, net tax shocks have positive short run effects on the nominal interest rate, and typically negative or zero effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; responses to fiscal shocks estimated on US data are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.
  • Topic: Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Paul Brenton, Bob Anderton, Eva Oscarsson
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper brings together and analyses the results of empirical analyses which, in contrast to most other studies, find that trade has been a significant cause of labour market inequality in various industrialised countries. The approach is based upon the concept of outsourcing – whereby the low-skill parts of the production chain are 'outsourced' to low-wage countries. A distinguishing feature of the empirical work is the use of highly detailed trade data, which allow imports from high- and low-wage countries to be separately identified at the industry level. Using cost minimisation framework, we show that imports from low-wage countries have made a significant contribution to the decline in the wage-bill share and/or relative employment of less-skilled workers in the UK, the USA, Sweden and Italy. We also show how the country-specific characteristics of outsourcing can lead to quite different inequality outcomes in different countries. In line with other studies, we also find that technology has played an important role in causing the increase in inequality in many countries. However, there is also some evidence that some of the rapid increase in the application of new technologies in recent decades has been trade-induced through mechanisms such as 'defensive innovation'.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom
  • Author: Kimberly A. Clausing
  • Publication Date: 06-2000
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Multinational firms are an increasingly important part of international economic integration. In recent years, foreign direct investment has been increasing at a rate that exceeds both the rate of growth of international trade and that of income. For many countries, the sales of affiliates of multinational firms have long dwarfed the value of trade. For example, in 1997, European Union country firms exported $283 billion in products to the United States. In the same year, affiliates of E.U.-based multinational firms sold $816 billion worth of products in the United States, almost three times the value of exports.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Nuria Diez Guardia
  • Publication Date: 02-2000
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This report analyses the European consumer credit markets and their regulation at European level. Its findings are as follows: European consumer credit markets are characterised by deep national differences and strong market segmentation. The report finds no generalised model of consumer credit from the analysis of statistical data. An Anglo-Saxon consumer credit model cannot be identified. The weight of consumer credit is far higher in the US economy than in the EU countries, including the UK. In the US, the share of consumer loans made by banks is much lower, securitisation of consumer credit assets is very developed and the share of revolving credit is much greater than in the EU countries. Nor is it possible, on account of the large differences in the use of consumer credit observed across EU countries, to identify a European model of consumer credit. Consumer credit is very widely used in Sweden, whereas it is underdeveloped in Greece and Italy. The use of consumer credit reaches comparatively high levels in Germany and the UK and an intermediate level in France and Spain. Lending to consumers is carried out through bank intermediation, crossborder provision is non-existent.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, Italy