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  • Author: Murray Hiebert, Gregory B. Poling, Ted Osius
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The U.S.- Indonesia relationship is critical to the national interests of both nations, and will only grow more so in the years to come. The catch words are now well- known. Indonesia is the world's fourth largest country and third largest democracy. It is the largest Muslim- majority nation, one of the most pluralistic societies on the planet. Its political system provides proof that democratic norms and values are not dependent on culture, history, or religion.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: United States, Indonesia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Maren Leed
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: At present, the defense policy landscape is replete with arguments, many of which are ultimately based in the lack of a common vision among both elites and within the broader population about the role of the U.S. military in the future. Cyber operations are one element of these debates, although much of the discussion has centered around how best to defend against a growing cyber threat, the role of the Defense Department in that defense, and tensions between civil liberties and security interests. Occasionally, greater attention is paid to questions about the U.S. use of cyber offensively, which brings with it questions of precedent, deterrence, international norms, and a host of other challenges. But it is also apparent that U.S. leaders have already approved the use of offensive cyber capabilities, though under tight restrictions. While not ignoring this larger context, the specific question this report examines is whether the Defense Department should make a more deliberate effort to explore the potential of offensive cyber tools at levels below that of a combatant command.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Science and Technology, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jeri Jensen
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The Obama administration has the opportunity to achieve more sustainable development solutions with a new model of development relevant in a world where private investment is the primary driver of economic growth.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Katherine E. Bliss, Matt Fisher
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In October 2010, just nine months after an earthquake devastated the capital city of Port-au-Prince and displaced an estimated 1.5 million people, Haiti's Ministry of Public Health and Population reported a cholera outbreak in two of the country's most impoverished regions. It was the first time cholera—a diarrheal disease associated with the consumption of food and water contaminated by feces infected with the bacterium vibrio cholerae—had been identified in the country in at least 100 years. Within a month of the initial report, cholera had spread not only to all regions of Haiti but also to the neighboring Dominican Republic. This report considers opportunities for the United States to enhance its support for improving Haiti's water supply and sanitation services and contributing to the elimination of the transmission of cholera and the reduction of diarrheal disease in the country.
  • Topic: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Infectious Diseases, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Caribbean, Haiti
  • Author: David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman
  • Publication Date: 09-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The U.S. government has a permanent reliance on contracts with the private sector for a wide range of services, though the share of federal services contracts has declined slightly in recent years. For the past eight years, the Defense - Industrial Initiatives Group (DIIG) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has tracked the trends driving the services industry. Overall, this report analyzes the trends for all federal services contract obligations from FY 2000 through FY 2012, the most recent full fiscal year for which reliable data are available from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This Executive Summary provides an overall view of the data and trends, including projections for federal services contract spending over the next 3 years (FY 2013 – 2015).
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Ashley Nichols, Abigail Temoshchuk
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In recent years , the United States has faced a growing number of severe natural disasters , presenting a variety of challenges for the nation – spanning the spectrum from federal to state to municipal and community levels – and its disaster response , relief, and recovery architecture . On average, the United States experiences ten severe weather events per year exceeding one billion dollars in damage , compared to an annual average of only two such events throughout the 1980s
  • Topic: Climate Change, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: J. Stephen Morrison
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In the past decade, there has been a steep and historic expansion of U.S. health engagement in Africa, principally through the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI). U.S. commitments to global health, of which over 70 percent is directed to Africa, rose from $1.7 billion in FY2001 to $8.9 billion in FY2012.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Robert M. Shelala II, Omar Mohamed
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Yemen is the most troubled state in the Arabian Peninsula. It remains in a low - level state of civil war, and is deeply divided on a sectarian, tribal, and regional level. A largely Shi'ite Houthi rebellion still affects much of the northwest border area and has serious influence in the capital of Sana and along parts of the Red Sea coast. Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) poses a threat in central Yemen, along with other elements of violent Sunni extremism, there are serious tensions between the northern and southern parts of Yemen, and power struggles continue between key elements of the military ruling elite in the capital and outside it.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, Insurgency
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia
  • Author: Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, Ally Pregulman, Rob Wise, Briana Fitch, Melissa Hersh
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Given India's rapid development, the nation has become an increasingly vital world actor. India has the 11th largest economy in the world, and with its annual economic growth rate averaging 7 percent per year since 1997, it could surpass the United States and China to become the world's largest economy by 2050. This economic capacity facilitated billions of dollars in investments since 2006 to expand and upgrade India's defense and security capabilities, including the launch of its first nuclear- powered submarine and the ongoing acquisition of a fleet of aircraft carriers. The growth of India's economic and military sectors increases its strategic importance to the United States and other partners interested in ensuring stability and security in Asia.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, China, South Asia, India
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition. It has not made its level of future commitment clear to its allies or the Afghans, and it has failed dismally to convince the Congress and the American people that there is a credible reason to support Transition beyond the end of 2014.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Islam, War, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States
  • Author: David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman, Rhys McCormick
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Over the past decade, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has been analyzing and reporting on contract spending for national security and across the federal government. This report analyzes contracting for products, services, and research and development (R) by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and its key components. It provides an in-depth look at the trends currently driving nearly 70 percent of all federal contract dollars throughout the growth and subsequent inflection of defense spending of the 2000–2012 study period. This third edition of the DoD report updates reports from previous years and provides greater depth of analysis. Rather than primarily reporting the changes across dozens of graphs, the analysis lists key factors behind growth or decline. However, the ability to dive deeply into raw data is as important to many CSIS readers. To meet that need, CSIS has significantly upgraded the project website (http://www.csis.org/NSPIR/DoD ) to include the graphs and table contained within this report as well as variants by defense component and by product/service area. This web site will be a living repository. Throughout the year, the study team will publish and update the data underlying shorter publications on key issues relevant to the defense- industrial base.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: US and Iranian strategic competition is heavily drive by four key factors–the success or failure of sanctions, the im0pact of that competition on the flow of Gulf energy exports, the success or failure of efforts to limit Iran's nuclear options and the broader prospect for arms control, and the prospects for accommodation of regime change. In recent years, the key variable has been ways in which sanctions on Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011, and helped lead to a tentative set of Iranian agreements with the UN's P5+1--the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France, plus Germany--in November 2013.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Oil, Regime Change, Sanctions
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The United States has long emphasized the desirability of working with allies and partners to meet pressing security challenges. Indeed, many of our most vexing security challenges-such as terrorism, threats to freedom of the seas and air, and cyber threats-are best met with multilateral action. At a time when the United States and many of its allies and partners are reluctant to increase defense and security investments, working together is of increasing importance. This is perhaps most evident in the Middle East and Asia, where real and potential threats to U.S. and partner security are high and our interests great.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Sam Khazai, Daniel Dewit
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The last active US combat forces left Iraq in August 2010, marking the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom and the beginning of Operation New Dawn. Some 49,000 advisory troops, four advisor assistance brigades, and a limited number of special operations forces (SOF) remained to train, advise, and assist Iraq's security forces after that date, including the military, intelligence, and police. Until the end, these US troops continued to serve a number of other important security functions: carrying out kinetic operations against Iranian-backed and other militant groups; providing training to the ISF; taking part in joint patrols along the borders of the Kurdish provinces and helping integrate ISF and Kurdish forces; and acting as a deterrent to Iraq's neighbors–in particular Iran.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: No single aspect of US and Iranian military competition is potentially more dangerous than the missile and nuclear dimensions, and the possibility Iran will deploy long-range, nuclear-armed missiles.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Conor M. Savoy
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Foreign aid donors face a changed development landscape that necessitates a new approach to programming resources. In the last 20 years, countries across the developing world demo cratized, began to improve their governance, and experienced substantial economic growth. Yet, significant challenges remain that must be tackled, many of which fall within the governance and growth nexus. These issues—government effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory policies related to the business and investment climate, and barriers to entry to the formal economy—are the preeminent challenges to expanding broad- based economic growth and continuing to reduce global poverty. The United States needs to shift its focus away from meeting basic human needs toward broader institutional development if it is to increase support for the governance and growth nexus. U.S. foreign aid is overwhelmingly directed toward global health and the delivery of other public goods. This must change.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Education, Emerging Markets, Health, Poverty, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom
  • Author: Carl Meacham
  • Publication Date: 11-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Is democracy in danger in the Dominican Republic? Is the country headed toward sustained one-party rule? In an effort to understand the state of Dominican democracy and rule of law, CSIS Americas Program director Carl Meacham led a six-month initiative to answer these questions. This report, which details the project's findings, pays particular attention to alleged growing levels of corruption within the government and the independence—and effectiveness—of the country's judiciary, as well as implications for the Dominican Republic's relations with the United States.
  • Topic: Corruption, Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Caribbean
  • Author: Brandon Fite
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Iran pursues cooperation with states on the geographic and strategic periphery of the competition between the US and Iran in order to create a network of diplomatic and economic relationships or “partners” that can lessen the blow of international sanctions and generally oppose Western attempts to constrict its ambitions. These peripheral “partners” located mainly in Africa and Latin America, also serve as alternative markets for Iranian oil, provide diplomatic cover for Iran's nuclear efforts, and aid Iran's acquisition of goods proscribed by international sanctions.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Sanctions
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Iran, Latin America
  • Author: Xiaoqing Lu Boynton, Conor M. Savoy
  • Publication Date: 03-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: As China's economy expanded in recent decades, there has been a corresponding rise in the amount of foreign assistance it offers to the developing world. In particular, China increased aid to countries in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Some of China's methods and objectives are controversial with the international aid community. Critics accuse China of frequently following a “mercantilist” strategy in using aid and loans in order to secure natural resources such as oil and raw materials. One commentator went so far as to describe Chinese aid as “rogue aid,” because it is driven by self-interest and not what is best for the developing world.1In remarks widely interpreted as aimed at China, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently warned countries to be “wary of donors who are more interested in extracting your resources than in building your capacity.”2Added to these feelings, China treats the methodology of its aid as a competitive asset and has sought to distance itself from international efforts at creating a cooperative framework for foreign assistance. In spite of this, since the second term of the Bush administration, the United States has sought to engage with China on international development. This includes high-level meetings be-tween the heads of China's foreign aid bureaucracy and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), as well as on-the-ground attempts to find common ground on development.
  • Topic: Development, Natural Resources, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Johanna Nesseth Tuttle
  • Publication Date: 03-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: With the introduction of Feed the Future (FTF)—the U.S. government's program to refocus foreign assistance on agricultural development—the private sector has been named a priority partner. President Barack Obama made a bold statement in his 2009 inaugural address, pledging that the United States would work with countries to support and promote food security. Private companies are enthusiastic about engaging in development efforts, and FTF may provide that avenue. The food and agriculture sector has significant capabilities, and market opportunities in developing countries are large and growing. Many companies have engaged in discussions with FTF leadership, and a number of partnerships have been launched. These are important efforts, and more are under way. The fact remains, however, that funding for agricultural development is relatively small—a three-year, $3.5 billion budget, compared to a six-year, $63 billion budget for health—and the investments needed in agriculture are massive: it would take $88.7 billion to meet U.S. global agricultural development goals.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Emerging Markets, Foreign Aid, Food, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: United States