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122. Preventing Catastrophe in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Richard Olson and Daniel F. Runde
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This brief presents a summary of key historical events in Afghanistan since 1989 and outlines a possible worst-case scenario following a U.S. and allied withdrawal from the country. The United States, Afghanistan, and its allies must work together in search for greater Afghan self-reliance, security, and stability in order to avoid a catastrophic scenario. Only then will Afghanistan be able to free itself of foreign presences and embark on its own journey to prosperity and self-reliance.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Governance, Hegemony, Military Affairs, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
123. Acquisition Trends, 2018: Defense Contract Spending Bounces Back
- Author:
- Rhys McCormick, Samantha Cohen, Gregory Sanders, and Andrew Philip Hunter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Defense Acquisition Trends, 2018: Defense Contract Spending Bounces Back is the latest in an annual series of report examining trends in what DoD is buying, how DoD is buying it, and whom DoD is buying from. This report analyzes the current state of affairs in defense acquisition by combining detailed policy and data analysis to provide a comprehensive overview of the current and future outlook for defense acquisition. This analysis will provide critical insights into what DoD is buying, how DoD is buying it, from whom is DoD buying, and what are the defense components buying using data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This analysis provides critical insights into understanding the current trends in the defense industrial base and the implications of those trends on acquisition policy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Private Sector, and Military Contractors
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
124. Rethinking Taxes and Development: Incorporating Political Economy Considerations in DRM Strategies
- Author:
- Daniel F. Runde
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- As countries mobilize more resources to fund their governments and services, they can think more strategically about transitioning from a reliance on foreign aid to more mutually beneficial relationships with foreign countries. There are structural challenges to mobilizing domestic resources that long have been the focus of DRM efforts; however, addressing the political economy and structural challenges will be critical in the face of increased need and plateauing levels of foreign aid. It is critical that development approaches create the foundational capabilities and systems necessary to capitalize on political windows of opportunity.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
125. Challenges, Changes, and Continuity: The United States and a Fragmented Regional Order
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is brutally obvious from the proposed U.S. defense budget for FY2020 that the United States set broad goals in early 2018 for what it called a new national defense strategy that were not supported by meaningful plans, programs and proposed budgets. So far, the U.S. has not defined how it will implement any major elements of the broad concepts it chose to call a strategy, what force changes will need to take place and at what cost, and how this will affect America's strategic partners.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Budget, Military Spending, Regionalism, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
126. Delivering Prosperity in the Indo-Pacific: An Agenda for Australia and the United States
- Author:
- Matthew P. Goodman, Gordon de Brouwer, Shiro Armstrong, and Adam Triggs
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The ongoing shift in global economic weight to the Indo-Pacific1 presents tremendous opportunities for the United States and Australia, along with risks and significant challenges. Both countries share a deep strategic interest in working together to keep Asian markets open, contestable, and rules-based. In doing so, Washington and Canberra can help maximize the prosperity and security of the American and Australian people, as well as those in the region. It is an opportunity too great to miss.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia, North America, and United States of America
127. Building a Big Tent for Agricultural Transformation in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Getachew Diriba and Christian Man
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been widely hailed for his promises to open political space, usher in economic liberalization, and remake the country’s poor record on human rights. However, to truly transform his country, Dr. Abiy must first transform agriculture, which is the nucleus of the Ethiopian economy and by far the largest employer. Drawing on interviews and focus groups with seventy stakeholders, this report examines the past wins, current endeavors, and future challenges of Ethiopia’s Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA), a federal entity established in 2010 to drive fundamental changes for the country’s 15 million smallholder farmers. It highlights the relationship between the ATA and the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture, the importance of innovation in agricultural transformation, and the role donors like the United States government can play in supporting such-efforts for country-led development.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economics, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
128. The Higher Road: Forging a U.S. Strategy for the Global Infrastructure Challenge
- Author:
- Jonathan Hillman and Erol Yayboke
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the next 15 years, more hard infrastructure is projected to be built around the world than currently exists. This global build-out is already underway, and the changes it brings will only accelerate. Infrastructure projects, especially in the transport, energy, information and communications technology (ICT), and water sectors, have long been recognized as the backbone of modern economies. Going forward, emerging digital infrastructure, including fifth-generation (5G) networks, remote sensing, and other advanced technologies, will be especially critical. As our infrastructure is transformed, so will be the economies it fuels, the regions it connects, and the global commons it underpins. These trends are too powerful and potentially beneficial for the United States to stop, and too consequential to ignore.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
129. Shifting the Burden Responsibly: Oversight and Accountability in U.S. Security Sector Assistance
- Author:
- Melissa Dalton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States increasingly relies on allies and partners to accomplish shared security objectives around the globe. In recent years, a greater emphasis has been placed from burden sharing to burden shifting—enabling allies and partners to assume responsibility for their own security challenges through security sector assistance. Burden shifting responsibly to allies and partners requires the United States to integrate oversight and accountability measures into the implementation of security sector assistance. Oversight and accountability mechanisms for security sector assistance allow the United States to better direct, track, and calibrate its assistance to partners to ensure the full scope of U.S. policy goals are met. However, amid reforms being undertaken by the U.S. government to adapt security sector assistance policy and processes, greater clarity is needed on how to connect policy goals of oversight and accountability to planning, operations, doctrine, and training across the security assistance enterprise. This study conducted by the CSIS Cooperative Defense Project builds upon its previous initiative, entitled Oversight and Accountability in Security Sector Assistance: Seeking Return on Investment, to assess the levels of progress on implementing reforms throughout the security sector assistance enterprise and developing an action plan that addresses specific issues along planning, operations, policy and doctrine, and training lines of effort.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
130. U.S. Economic Engagement in Africa: Making Prosper Africa a Reality
- Author:
- Daniel F. Runde and Romina Bandura
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- While other countries have ramped up their economic engagement with Africa via trade, investments, and private sector financing, the United States has remained, for the most part, disengaged. Though decades-long U.S. government initiatives in Africa are indicative of longstanding relations, the reality is that these initiatives have not been enough for the United States to compete in the changing development landscape. On December 13, 2018, the Trump administration launched the Prosper Africa initiative, which seeks to open markets for American businesses, grow Africa’s middle class, promote youth employment opportunities, improve the business climate, and enable the United States to compete with China and other nations who have business interests in Africa. This short report discusses some of the challenges and opportunities for U.S. engagement with the continent and presents a series of recommendations for the policymakers driving the Prosper Africa initiative forward.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North America, and United States of America
131. A Preliminary Assessment of Argentina’s Accession to the OECD
- Author:
- Michael Matera, Pablo Souto, and Silvina Vatnick
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Formal Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) membership facilitates the design and implementation of public policies, restrains the likelihood of abrupt changes in the rules of the game, lowers the cost of capital, enables harmonization of norms and practices with other countries aimed at fostering trade and investment flows, allows for an active participation in global development forums, and reinforces reputational effects that strengthen businesses’ and consumers’ confidence. However, these benefits can be taken advantage of by countries even before becoming a full OECD member, since the process of accession itself requires that candidate members of the OECD commit to a concrete action plan that serves to promote comprehensive reform of existing laws, regulations, and practices in a wide array of policy areas. Over the last few decades, Argentina’s institutional framework has been weak and ineffective and has failed in improving consistently the well-being of the population. President Macri identified the process of accession to the OECD as one of the key policy priorities of his government in order to begin addressing the country’s institutional weaknesses and to anchor a broad range of important structural reforms that had never been fully undertaken by previous governments. In June 2016, Argentina officially announced its intention to seek formal endorsement of its candidacy for OECD membership and thereby to officially initiate the accession process. In April 2017, Argentina’s minister of the treasury formally announced and presented the Argentina and OECD Action Plan to representatives of the OECD member countries. Since that time, this action plan has been advanced through a large number of policy actions, legal reforms, and analytical work undertaken by Argentine government institutions, both executive and legislative, in close coordination with the OECD Secretariat.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Economic Cooperation, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and OECD
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
132. Pursuing Effective and Conflict-Aware Stabilization: Partnering for Success
- Author:
- Erol Yayboke, Melissa Dalton, MacKenzie Hammond, and Hijab Shah
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The U.S. government has an opportunity to pursue effective and conflict-aware stabilization, building upon the U.S. Stabilization Assistance Review (SAR) framework signed in June 2018.1 The SAR clarified roles and streamlined priorities for stabilization assistance, though “implementation will require sustained leadership, an interagency roadmap, new processes, bureaucratic incentives, and a review of authorities and resources.”2 The SAR includes a unified U.S. government definition of stabilization that recognizes stabilization as an “inherently political endeavor involving an integrated civilian-military process to create conditions where locally legitimate authorities and systems can peaceably manage conflict and prevent a resurgence of violence.”3 CSIS has embarked on a study to examine how to operationalize and build upon the SAR framework. This brief serves as a companion to a brief published in January 2019 which called for a clearer and contextualized definition of stabilization success and well-delineated roles, goals, and leadership structures in the U.S. interagency. It emphasized the importance of local actors and called for a process-based approached to assessment, monitoring, and evaluation (AM&E).4 This brief builds on the first by focusing on the lessons learned from past stabilization efforts and by addressing a key element of successful SAR implementation: partnerships. Success requires deeper interagency coordination and substantive partnerships with international partners. Lastly, this brief addresses a fundamental challenge to SAR implementation: updating the U.S. government’s tools, authorities, and resourcing to increase chances of success.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Humanitarian Crisis, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
133. Financial Sector Cybersecurity Requirements in the Asia-Pacific Region
- Author:
- William A. Carter and William Crumpler
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- As the threat of cyberattacks has risen in recent years, financial institutions (FIs) and regulators have taken a range of steps to strengthen the security and resilience of the financial system to cyber threats. In the Asia-Pacific region (APAC), regulators have introduced a raft of new regulations and controls to bolster the resilience of FIs in their jurisdictions. While greater attention to—and engagement on—these issues is important, the development of new regulatory regimes across APAC has created challenges for multinational FIs and regulators, and could hinder the growth of the financial services and fintech industries within the region. We reviewed the cybersecurity requirements impacting the financial industry in five key jurisdictions, including the largest regional financial centers and consumer markets in APAC: Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, China, and India. Through a combination of open-source research and on-the-ground interviews—with regulators; local, regional, and global FIs; policymakers; technology experts; and academics—we sought to understand the range of requirements and approaches from different regulators across the APAC region, and the ways in which they impact cyber risks to the regional financial system. Harmonizing regulators’ approaches to cybersecurity regulation in the region could help reduce systemic risks, improve regulatory efficiency, and make it easier for FIs across APAC to grow. This will not be easy and will require sustained engagement on multiple levels. Cyber threats are a transnational issue and will require a transnational response, particularly in highly integrated regions like APAC. Strengthening the security and resiliency of financial networks across the region will require looking at FIs from an enterprise perspective and understanding the cyber risks they face from the perspective of defenders, not the narrow lens of national borders. This will require principles-based approaches that allow for the wide range of business models and capacities of FIs and regulators across the region, and consolidated auditing, examination, and testing procedures to ensure that regulators have an accurate picture of the risks and controls at institutions under their care. Ultimately, regulators’ goals must be to ensure that strong security and resilience, not redundant compliance, is the focus for FIs.
- Topic:
- Security, Cybersecurity, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
134. Beyond the Ballot: How the Kremlin Works to Undermine the U.S. Justice System
- Author:
- Suzanne Spaulding, Devi Nair, and Arthur Nelson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- he U.S. justice system is under attack as part of a long-term Russian effort to undermine the appeal of democracy and weaken the West. Via multi-platform disinformation operations, Kremlin-backed operatives work to exacerbate existent divisions within populations and increase overall mistrust and paranoia against democratic institutions. In the process, justice systems are portrayed as corrupt, inept, and hypocritical. This report describes the nature of this threat and proposes measures for countering it. The report focuses on activities by the Russian government, including the ways it feeds, is fed by, and amplifies domestic voices to weaken public confidence in the justice system. The insights gained by examining Russia’s efforts can and should inform our understanding of both threats from other nations and the challenges contemporary communications technologies pose to a healthy democracy generally.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Justice, Judiciary, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
135. Shifting Currents in the Arctic
- Author:
- Rachel Lutz Ellehuus
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Arctic is a beautiful but demanding region. The sun sets in October and does not return until March; temperatures average 32 degrees Fahrenheit in the summer and -40 degrees Fahrenheit in winter; and infrastructure is limited or absent. It is a place of many contradictions, no more so than now, when economic activity is increasing and national, geostrategic interests are confronting established practices of international cooperation and rules and norms. Russian president Vladimir Putin’s speech at the Arctic International Forum in St. Petersburg earlier this month foreshadowed this confrontation. He portrayed Russia as a facilitator in the making the Northern Sea Route (NSR) “safe and commercially feasible” for all nations, even as Russia is acting in contravention of international law by charging application fees and harbor/navigation costs. (Russia views the NSR as an internal passage; the international community views it as an international passage.) Equally, though Putin has denied any military tension in the Arctic, Russia is sending new units and capabilities to the region, including a new Arctic rifle brigade and S-400 missile systems, and conducting live-fire naval drills. Three Arctic coastal nations and NATO members represented in the essays below—Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, and the United States—are well aware of the contradictions, challenges, and opportunities presented by increased economic and military activity in the Arctic and are adjusting their strategies and resources accordingly. While each approach is unique, there are several common elements. These include an increased focus on maritime surveillance and situational awareness, investment in more sustainable, survivable platforms, and a doubling down on joint and whole-of-government approaches to reflect the multiple missions in the Arctic. Where there are differences, they mainly concern whether and how to address actions that challenge established norms and international law.
- Topic:
- Environment, Territorial Disputes, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Arctic
136. The Implications of U.S. Policy Stagnation toward the Arctic Region
- Author:
- Heather A Conley and Matthew Melino
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States’ strategic position near Russia and neighboring Canada allows the U.S. access to the Beaufort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, and the Bering Sea and requires the United States to manage a lengthy maritime border with Russia that extends through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea into the Arctic Ocean as far as permitted under international law. The U.S. government has articulated its fundamental interest in the Arctic for more than 40 years in a series of government strategies: beginning with President Nixon’s 1971 National Security Decision Memorandum (NSDM-144), to Ronald Reagan’s 1983 National Security Decision Directive (NSDD-90), to President George W. Bush’s National Security Presidential Directive 66 and Homeland Security Presidential Directive 25, signed in 2009, and the 2016 Report to Congress from the Department of Defense on Strategy to Protect United States National Security Interests in the Arctic Region.1 Each document established broad guidelines for U.S. policy in the region that aligned with the geostrategic realities at the time.2
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Arctic
137. How Much Will the Space Force Cost?
- Author:
- Todd Harrison
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The proposed creation of a new military service for space, known as the Space Force, is likely to be a hotly debated issue in the FY 2020 legislative cycle. One of the central questions about this proposal is how much it will cost and what the overall size and scope of the Space Force will be. This brief provides rough estimates for the number of military and civilian personnel, the number and locations of bases, the budget lines that would transfer to the new organization, and the additional personnel and headquarters organization that would be needed for the new military service.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Space, Space Force, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
138. The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite nearly two decades of U.S.-led counterterrorism operations, there are nearly four times as many Sunni Islamic militants today as there were on September 11, 2001. Based on a CSIS data set of groups, fighters, and violence, the regions with the largest number of fighters are Syria (between 43,650 and 70,550 fighters), Afghanistan (between 27,000 and 64,060), Pakistan (between 17,900 and 39,540), Iraq (between 10,000 and 15,000), Nigeria (between 3,450 and 6,900), and Somalia (between 3,095 and 7,240). Attack data indicates that there are still high levels of violence in Syria and Iraq from Salafi-jihadist groups, along with significant violence in such countries and regions as Yemen, the Sahel, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Somalia. These findings suggest that there is still a large pool of Salafi-jihadist and allied fighters willing and able to use violence to achieve their goals. Every U.S. president since 9/11 has tried to move away from counterterrorism in some capacity, and it is no different today. Balancing national security priorities in today’s world needs to happen gradually. For the United States, the challenge is not that U.S. officials are devoting attention and resources to dealing with state adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. These countries present legitimate threats to the United States at home and abroad. Rather, the mistake would be declaring victory over terrorism too quickly and, as a result, shifting too many resources and too much attention away from terrorist groups when the threat remains significant.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Jihad, and Militant Islam
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
139. The Gulf Scramble for Africa: GCC states’ foreign policy laboratory
- Author:
- Will Todman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- When the border dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia descended into bloody conflict in 1998, few could have predicted where a peace agreement would be signed some 20 years later. On September 16, 2018, the Eritrean and Ethiopian leaders sat at desks facing one another in the middle of a lavish hall in the Peace Palace in Jeddah. A huge portrait of Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia’s first king, loomed over them. King Salman bin Abdulaziz sat underneath, with Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and the secretary general of the United Nations Antonio Guterres on either side. The optics were clear: It was under Saudi sponsorship that decades of conflict ended. The deal would be known as the “Jeddah Peace Agreement.”1 The Jeddah Peace Agreement is the latest example of Arab Gulf states’ increasingly assertive interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. Although the Arabian Peninsula shares historic religious, economic, and linguistic links with parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have rapidly deepened their economic and security ties across the African continent in the last decade, and a growing diplomatic role has followed. Gulf states are seeking to demonstrate their status on the world stage by acting as powerbrokers in African conflicts, and they have also attempted to secure the backing of African states in their own disputes. As they prepare to play a more significant role on the world stage, GCC states have come to view sub-Saharan Africa as a laboratory in which they can test more assertive international interventions.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Strategic Stability, Foreign Interference, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Gulf Nations, and Sub-Saharan Africa
140. New Entrants and Small Business Graduation in the Market for Federal Contracts
- Author:
- Gregory Sanders and Andrew Philip Hunter
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This report tracks businesses new to the federal contracting arena from 2001-2016, otherwise known as new entrants, using publicly available contracting data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). Firm-level information on these vendors is collected over this time period and used to evaluate entrances, exits, and status changes among federal vendors with the purpose of comparing challenges faced by small businesses with those of larger ones. The final results compare the survival rates between small and non-small new entrants contracting with the federal government and calculate the graduation rates for those small new entrants who grew in size during the observation period and survived after ten years.
- Topic:
- Privatization, Non State Actors, Business, and Contracts
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus