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  • Author: Guy Ben-Ari, Brian Green, Joshua Hartman, Gary Powell, Stephanie Sanok
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Over the past decade, CSIS has consistently reported on concerns about the state of the space industry. During that same period, the United States has experienced an ever-increasing reliance on space in the daily lives of its citizens and, significantly, in national security. This report assesses the interrelationship between the commercial space sector and national security. Understanding the current state of the commercial space sector is integral to identifying and evaluating national security concerns and to developing options for improvement.
  • Topic: Security, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: It is far easier to talk about international cooperation in fighting terrorism than it is to achieve it. The world has made real progress in recent years – at both the formal and informal levels. At the same time, national differences still pose serious limits to what can be achieved and the threat is changing. Even if one only focuses on the “greater Middle East,” the threat now involves far more than terrorism per se and non-state actors. Cooperation in counter terrorism must deal with these changes and with the fact that there are no clear boundaries between terrorism and insurgency, and that terrorism is only a symptom of a far broader ideological struggle.
  • Topic: Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: James A. Lewis, Sarah O. Ladislaw, Denise E. Zheng
  • Publication Date: 06-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Until this year, America's civil space policies—and the budgets that derive from it—were shaped to a considerable degree by the political imperatives of the past and by the romantic fiction of spaceflight. We believe there is a new imperative—climate change—that should take precedence in our national plans for space and that the goal for space spending in the next decade should be to create a robust and adequate Earth observation architecture.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Economics, Natural Disasters
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Thomas M. Sanderson, Daniel Kimmage, David A. Gordon
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: When Admiral Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, delivered the intelligence community's annual threat assessment to Congress in February 2009, he painted a bleak picture of post-Soviet Central Asia. Describing Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as a morass of “highly personalized politics, weak institutions, and growing inequalities,” Blair argued that they are “ill-equipped to deal with the challenges posed by Islamic violent extremism, poor economic development, and problems associated with energy, water, and food distribution.”
  • Topic: Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union
  • Author: Kristin Wedding
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In 2008, a complex combination of changes in demographics, food demand, and poor weather led to skyrocketing food prices around the world, prompting riots in dozens of countries, from Bangladesh to Burkina Faso. While prices have stabilized in developed countries, high prices in the rest of the world continue to limit both access to, and availability of, staple food items. The number of people living with chronic hunger has jumped to more than 1 billion people—one sixth of the world's population—and those trends show no signs of reversal: between 2007 and 2008, the number of people suffering from chronic hunger in the developing world increased by 80 million. In 2009, as many as 100 million additional people were pushed into a state of food insecurity. Continued high food prices and a global recession further exacerbate the rising numbers of food insecure people. Hunger has emerged as perhaps the most endangered Millennium Development Goal.
  • Topic: Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Bangladesh, United States
  • Author: Robert E. Ebel
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: “The policies of Iran constitute perhaps the single greatest challenge for American security interests in the Middle East, and possibly around the world….” So said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on October 24, 2007. What policies did Secretary Rice have in mind? The combination of terrorism, repression at home, and the pursuit of nuclear weapons technology. Opposition comes from former administration officials as well, who are equally convinced that Iran's desire for nuclear weapons is one of the most urgent issues facing the United States today. And in a report released by the U.S. Department of State on April 30, 2009, Iran was characterized as the “most active state sponsor of terrorism” in the world.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Aram Nerguizian
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The Gulf military balance is dominated by five major factors: The Southern Gulf states, Iran, Iraq, outside powers like the US, and non-state actors like the various elements of Al Qa'ida, the Mahdi militia, and various tribal forces. At present, the Southern Gulf states have large military resources but limited real-world effectivenerss and have made limited progress towards collective and integrated defense.
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Robert Hecht, Amrita Palriwala, Aarthi Rao
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Over the past decade, there has been a tremendous upsurge in attention to global health issues, and the world's wealthiest countries have made a correspondingly large increase in international development assistance for health (DAH). DAH has grown from $7.2 billion in 2001 to $22.1 billion in 2007, accounting for nearly one-fifth of all development aid in the latter year.
  • Topic: Health
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Anthony H Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: It may well be early 2011 before we know the actual results of the Iraqi election, and not because there were problems in the way the election was held, or in the counting of votes. Prime Minister Maliki is playing power politics with a relatively honest election, not protesting one with serious abuses. Elections, however, are ultimately about two things: Who gains power and who can govern.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Economics are as important to Iraq's stability and political accommodation as security and governance, and they are equally critical to creating a successful strategic partnership between Iraq and the United States. It is far from easy, however, to analyze many of the key factors and trends involved. Iraqi data are weak and sometimes absent. U.S. and Coalition forces generally failed to look in detail at many of Iraq's most serious economic problems, or they issued heavily politicized reports designed to show that Iraqi “reconstruction” had been far more successful than it really was.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Adam Mausner
  • Publication Date: 05-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The security arena will face the most drastic changes in U.S.-Iraqi strategic relations over the next two years. Iraq must assume all responsibility for its internal and external security once the United States withdraws by December 31, 2011, unless it invokes the terms of the Strategic Agreement to seek additional US aid. Iraq must both deal with its own insurgents and with problems in its relations with neighboring countries like Iran, Syria, and the Gulf states. This makes the continued improvement of all elements of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) vital both to Iraq and to the stability of the region, during the period of US withdrawal in 2010-2011 and in the years that follow.
  • Topic: War
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Syria
  • Author: Richard H. Needle, Lin Zhao
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In 2008, the United States agreed to extend and expand its historic global HIV/AIDS program, authorizing up to $48 billion over five years to combat global HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. In its first phase (2004–2008), the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) concentrated most of its resources and attention on countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with a priority focus on expanding access to treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART). Among the primary accomplishments of the initiative in its first phase was to demonstrate the feasibility of mass provision of life-saving ART treatment in low-income African countries hardest hit by the HIV pandemic. But despite the major gains in ART access since 2003, it is estimated that for every two people starting HIV treatment today, another five are newly infected. PEPFAR's second phase (2009–2013) continues and expands treatment scale-up and prevention with the intent of transitioning from an emergency program to a sustainable country-driven and-managed response. The program will be judged, in large part, on the progress it makes in halting the further spread of HIV.
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Publication Date: 06-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Since 2008, CSIS staff have tracked, on a daily basis, incidents of violence occurring in the North Caucasus. We have released six previous reports, the last of whichillustrated the dramatic rise in violence in 2009.
  • Political Geography: North Caucasus
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Abdullah Toukan
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and ranks among the world's top three holders of both proven oil and natural gas reserves. Iran is OPEC's second-largest producer and exporter after Saudi Arabia, and is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil globally after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Norway. As of January 2009, Iran has an estimated 136.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, or roughly 10 percent of the world's total proven petroleum.
  • Topic: OPEC
  • Political Geography: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Norway, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Elena Derby
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Although Iraq has made political progress over the past few years it still falls far short of the level of political accommodation it needs to control its ethnic and sectarian divisions, ensure adequate representation for all ethno-religious groups, and create the conditions for effective governance. Despite the success of the national elections in March 2010, when over two thirds of the population defied threats of violence to cast their ballots—with a particularly strong turnout among Sunnis and Kurds—it is still unclear whether Iraq can form a stable ―national coalition government. If Iraq is successful, it will still take years for the new elected and appointed officials to develop the capacity they need to govern effectively.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Lisa Carty, Phillip Nieburg, Suzanne Brundage
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In 2008, Congress reauthorized PEPFAR for Fiscal Years 2009–2013. In the first half of 2009, the Obama administration entered office and Dr. Eric Goosby began work as the new U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator. A new openness regarding some of the more difficult HIV-prevention issues emerged within U.S. policy circles. Language within the reauthorization legislation, as well as the repeal of the Mexico City provisions, helped create greater latitude to introduce policies and programs that could increase the effectiveness of critical prevention interventions.
  • Political Geography: United States, Mexico
  • Author: Keith C. Smith
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: It is my thesis that the national security risk posed by Russian energy policies are only tangentially related to Europe's dependency on Russian energy imports. The primary energy risk to Europe, and especially to the newer EU members, stems from the corrosive effect this dependency has on governance and on transatlantic cooperation. Moscow's divide-and-conquer tactics have successfully prevented greater inter-European cooperation on both economic and security issues. As we shall see, these factors have added to already existing strains in the U.S.-Europe relationship. Further NATO enlargement has been stopped, in part, due to Moscow's energy ties with the wealthier Western European states. It is in the U.S. interest to assist those Eastern and Central European (ECE) states that are highly dependent on Russian energy imports and are most susceptible to imported corruption. Kremlin officials, supported by 60 percent of Russian public opinion, favor reestablishing Soviet-era control or influence over ECE countries. The threat to the sovereignty of these new democracies cannot be dismissed.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Moscow
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Saudi Arabia posted its first budget deficit in 2009 in eight years as government revenues fell by over 54% to SAR505bn. Despite increased spending, the actual deficit of SAR45bn fell short of the budgeted SAR65bn, thanks to a rebound in crude oil prices. The average YTD OPEC basket oil price was significantly higher than the USD44 assumed in the 2009 budget. Driven by higher government spending, the Kingdom's economy expanded by a real 0.15% in 2009. In the face of a sharp oil sector contraction due to restricted quotas and lower prices, growth was largely driven by the non-oil sector which expanded by 3.0%. The government sector with 4.0% growth was a particularly important source of resilience while the private sector expanded by 2.5%. For 2010, the government projects revenues of SAR470bn, 14.6% higher than the SAR410bn budgeted in 2009. Spending is set to expand by 13.7% to SAR540bn from SAR475bn. The deficit is set to broadly match this year's figure at SAR70bn, or $18.7 billion) as the Arab world's largest economy focuses on development and job creation. The oil price remains the key risk for the Saudi economic outlook in 2010. OPEC now expects a 0.8% increase in total crude oil consumption to 84.93 mb/d in 2010.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Iraq is changing rapidly, although the outcomes of many of these changes remain unclear. The country faces major challenges in many areas—ranging from quelling the ongoing violence to achieving political accommodation and economic stability. Each of these challenges is critical to the future security and stability of Iraq: Defeat the threat posed by the remnants of the Sunni insurgency, neo-Ba'athists, and Shi'ite militias. Deal with the risk of new forms of ethnic and sectarian violence——especially ethnic conflict between Arab, Kurd, and other minorities in the North. Create effective Iraqi security forces that can fully replace U.S. forces, defeat or reduce the various insurgent and terrorist groups to acceptable levels of activity, enforce the rule of law, and grow strong enough to ensure Iraq's security from threats or pressure from neighboring states. Restructure the Iraqi government to both reflect the results of the 2010 Parliamentary elections and create a level of effective governance that can bring together all of the nation's major factions. Accelerate the slow pace of political accommodation and meet the need for stable political compromises between each major faction so as to rebuild full national unity over time. Find a new balance between central, provincial, and local governance that effectively serves the needs of the Iraqi people, aids political accommodation, builds capacity, reduces corruption, and shifts the climate from one dominated by counterinsurgency to one focused on the rule of law. Cope with the challenges of poverty, unemployment, and underemployment; poor distribution of income; and key problems in the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors than affect large portions of the population. Move Iraq toward economic development in ways that deal with the complex heritage of nearly 30 years of war and internal conflict; massive population growth; and the need to create a competitive economy. Put Iraq's budget on a stable path toward developing effective Iraqi security forces and government services; helping fund economic reconstruction and development; dealing with the near phaseout of international aid and continuing foreign debt and reparations issues; and reducing the dependence of the government on uncertain levels of oil export earnings for the majority of its revenues.
  • Topic: Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Arabia, Kurdistan
  • Author: S. Frederick Starr, Andrew C. Kuchina
  • Publication Date: 05-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: One of the most promising ways forward for the U.S. and NATO in Afgha-nistan is to focus on removing the impediments to continental transport and trade across Afghanistan's territory. Many existing international initiatives from the Mediterranean to the Indian sub-continent and Southeast Asia are already bringing parts of this network into being. Absent is the overall priori-tization, coordination, and risk management that will enable Afghanistan to emerge as a natural hub and transit point for roads, railroads, pipelines, and electric lines. America and its coalition partners can provide these missing ingredients.
  • Topic: NATO
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, America, Southeast Asia