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Begin New Search Political Geography Eastern Europe Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE Publication Year within 25 Years

1. Stolen decades: the unfulfilled expectations of the Belarusian economic miracle

Author:
Aleś Alachnovič and Julia Korosteleva
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The case of the Belarusian economy has puzzled many academic scholars for years. Belarus has often been referred to as a transition outlier, given its relatively fast recovery in 1996 and spectacular growth prior to the global financial crisis without much transformation of its economy. Three decades after gaining its independence, the state control of the economy still remains considerably high. Subsidized financing of state-owned enterprises allowed to preserve production capabilities over the first decade, to achieve some productivity gains in the late 1990s–early 2000s, and to avoid social destabilization. However, with a delay in structural reforms, this economic model, also heavily dependent on the Russian subsidies and foreign debt, has become fatigue, driving the economy into stagnation in the 2010s. The Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 post-presidential political crisis and Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022 put further strains on the economy, calling for change. This working paper gives an overview of the Belarusian economic developments before the presidential elections to have a better understanding of how various rigidities of the Belarusian economic model have amplified the detrimental effect of the political unrest for the economy and the Belarusian society overall, and discusses the anticrisis and mid-term economic reforms Belarus will have to undergo.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Economy, Social Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus

2. The Story of the Open Pension Funds and the Employee Capital Plans in Poland. Will It Succeed This Time?

Author:
Barbara Blaszczyk
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Social Policy, and Capital
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

3. The Impact of the State on the Quality of an Economic System: A Cross-Country Analysis

Author:
Maciej Bałtowski and Piotr Kozarzewski
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The paper discusses the role of the state in shaping an economic system which is, in line with the welfare economics approach, capable of performing socially important functions and achieving socially desirable results. We describe this system through a set of indexes: the IHDI, the World Happiness Index, and the Satisfaction of Life index. The characteris-tics of the state are analyzed using a set of variables which describe both the quantitative (government size, various types of governmental expenditures, and regulatory burden) and qualitative (institutional setup and property rights protection) aspects of its functioning. The study examines the “old” and “new” member states of the European Union, the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Asia, and the economies of Latin America. The main conclusion of the research is that the institutional quality of the state seems to be the most important for creation of a socially effective economic system, while the level of state interventionism plays, at most, a secondary and often negligible role. Geographical differentiation is also discovered, as well as the lack of a direct correlation between the characteristics of an economic system and the subjective feeling of well-being. These re-sults may corroborate the neo-institutionalist hypothesis that noneconomic factors, such as historical, institutional, cultural, and even genetic factors, may play an important role in making the economic system capable to perform its tasks; this remains an area for future research.
Topic:
Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, State, Economic Policy, Institutions, Trade, and Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America, and European Union

4. The Relevance of Financial and Economic Factors for Determining Banking Risk across Europe

Author:
Renata Karkowska
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to identify empirically how country-level development, taking into account the financial and macroeconomic environment, affect the risk profiles of the banking sector in Europe. Through a dataset that covers 3,399 European banks spanning the period 1996-2011, and the methodology of panel regression, the empirical findings document the heterogeneity of banking risk determinants. I examine the implications of bank leverage that manifest itself as spreading and growing instability. The study contributes to and combines the different strands of literature and understanding of the importance of the links between the variables. It also contributes to the literature by focusing on a group of countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States that have not been studied before. The extended model provides a causal link between risk in the banking sector and the growth of the financial market and macroeconomy. I apply four measures of country-level development that are available in previous studies: share of foreign ownership in the banking sector; the financial freedom index; the real growth rate; and stock market capitalization. Using these measures, I obtain different results which highlight the fact that the effect of macroeconomic and financial development on banking sector risk-taking is ambiguous.
Topic:
Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade Liberalization, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and European Union

5. How Not to Get Stuck in the Middle Lessons for the Commonwealth of Independent States from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Jakub Zowczak and Kamil Pruchnik
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that. The literature review on transformation models and the analysis of the “jumps” in the World Bank ranking classification suggest that while the MIT is not a concern for CEE or CIS countries, in order to speed up convergence, CIS countries might consider more shocks and consistently following free market related approaches. The study fills a gap in the literature on the MIT which has thoroughly analyzed the Asian and Latin American countries but has provided little analysis of the CEE and CIS countries.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

6. Post-privatisation Corporate Performance in Poland. Evidence from Companies Privatized in 2008-2011

Author:
Barbara Błaszczyk and Wiktor Patena
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The study concerns the effects of Polish privatisation program conducted in the years 2008-2011. After drawing a broad picture of this process we investigate the performance of 59 privatised companies, and finally focus on a deeper analysis of three companies, which is the core part of our study. We test the hypotheses that privatisation increases a company's profitability, labour productivity, capital investment spending, plow-back ratio and leverage. In case studies, we additionally explore the effect of privatization on each company’s value. The outcomes concerning the larger group of companies are partly ambiguous (with four hypotheses confirmed and four rejected). Profitability has been not visibly improved, although a number of positive initiatives and improvements in performance occurred. By contrast, the three case studies showed a significant improvement of profitability and all other performance indicators observed, as well as a considerable increase of company value. Our results show that privatisation works, though its full effects need time to occur.
Topic:
Privatization, Financial Markets, Economy, Economic Growth, State, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

7. Will IMF Intervention Help Belarus Solve Its Old Problems?

Author:
Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
On May 31, 2011 the Government and National Bank of Belarus (NBB) announced that they would ask for a new stand-by loan from the IMF. The requests for external assistance followed several unsuccessful government attempts to overcome the serious macroeconomic crisis that has been developing in the country since the beginning of 2010. A key question arises, can external loans help Belarus to overcome its current crisis?
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Institutions, Macroeconomics, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

8. The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Public Health Expenditures in the Economies of the Former Soviet Union

Author:
Roman Mogilevsky
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The financial crisis strongly affected the countries of the former Soviet Union1 (FSU) in 2008-2009. All of the countries experienced either a recession or a considerable slowdown in growth. The crisis also adversely affected government budget revenues, so governments had to adjust their expenditures to the falling revenues. Under such conditions, public expenditures on health were at risk of being cut. This brief explores whether or not this actually happened and why or why not.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Public Health, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

9. After the Orange Era: Economic Prospects in Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Boyarchuk, Kateryna Ruskykh, Olga Kravets, and Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When Victor Yanukovich won Ukraine’s presidential election in February 2010, it marked the official end of the Orange Revolution. Soon after taking office, Yanukovich managed to form a loyal parliamentary coalition in a legally dubious way and, consequently, appointed his ally Mykola Azarov as Prime Minister. Indeed this decision may have made state governance more predictable and even provided for shortterm economic stability, but it may have come at the expense of Ukraine’s democratic freedom and long-term economic prospects.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Institutions, Economic Stability, Post-Soviet Space, and Victor Yanukovich
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

10. Bulgaria’s Fiscal Expansion: Navigating Through Stormy Waters

Author:
Georgy Ganev
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When the global economic crisis wreaked havoc across the world, most governments responded with a dramatic increase in spending. Their reactions had two main goals in mind: first, to bailout failing financial systems and second, to substitute the decline in private demand with a boost in aggregate public spending. For Bulgaria, fiscal stimulus programs proved to present their own unique set of challenges.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Bulgaria